Sometimes baseball is stupid. You can hit a ball 110 mph directly at an outfielder and walk back to the dugout with an 0-for-1. Then you can roll over a 74 mph grounder that somehow finds a hole and suddenly your batting average is moving in the right direction. Over a long enough period of time, talent generally wins out, but fantasy baseball doesn’t give us the luxury of waiting. That’s where Statcast can help. I dug through the last 30 days of performance and Statcast data, then compared it with the last 14 days to see which hitters have been genuinely bad and which ones have simply been poorly rewarded for the quality of their contact. Expected statistics aren’t a crystal ball, and I’m not going to tell you that a .300 xBA guarantees a .300 batting average. What they can do is help us identify players whose recent results are worse than the underlying process suggests. And with the fantasy season entering its final stretch, those are exactly the players I want to find.