Quick Intro
I have been a regular follower of the site for many years. This is my first article. I want to thank the Razzball team for giving me an opportunity, and I wish Disco Stu well. I will be filling in for him, covering the Outfield column.
I’ll start off my first articles with some buys, sells, and holds. I don’t know about you, but it’s always much harder for me to drop players, so I may lean a little more into the why on the drops and sells to help you rationalize them. With nearly 60% of the season complete, we are past the point of patience.
Jarren Duran
In Grey’s 2026 fantasy rankings, Jarren Duran landed at #70 overall in the Top 500 and checked in as the #22 outfielder in the Top 40 Outfielders. Through July 11, he has 13 home runs and 14 stolen bases and is on pace for a 23/25 season. Generally, I think most of us would be pretty happy with that outcome. However, it comes with a .193 batting average and a .610 OPS. Interestingly, he is on a historic pace. If he continues at this rate, he will record the worst 20/20 season in MLB history based on OPS per Stathead. I guess in some leagues there is value in that. I am not here to judge. You do you.
What is going on, you ask? Well, he has pretty much been awful all year except for a stretch of games in May where many of us (me) thought the buy low slammed shut. It ended up only being a hot streak. He hit 9 of his 13 home runs in a span of 27 games. That means he’s hit 4 home runs in his other 60 games played. Half of his RBI total came in the same 27 game stretch.
Let’s dig into his metrics a little more…
Statcast Chart Through July 11
That chart isn’t what I would call sexy. And I am going to show you he earned every bit of it. Don’t be fooled by the barrel rate, which I will touch on below.
Trend Analysis Through July 11
Looking at the trend from his breakout 2024 season, we can see that he is making less contact, striking out more, and has been more aggressive. He could be pressing, but that aggressiveness is not helping him. He’s pulling the ball a lot more, and nearly 20% of his fly balls are pop-ups. He is swinging more, swinging out of the zone more, and swinging and missing more. To me, that’s a Molotov cocktail.
But what about that barrel rate? This is a classic case of a hitter sacrificing plate discipline and contact quality to try to pull the ball and sell out for power. While he may lay into a few and hit some home runs, this profile is volatile, with an extremely low floor. That’s why I’m highlighting June to show just how ugly it could get when he hit .144 with a .395 OPS and struck out 36% of the time. Yikes.
Verdict: Sell
In the world of investing, a dead cat bounce refers to a temporary, short-term recovery in the price of a declining asset, followed by a continuation of a downward trend. If we translate that in terms of Duran, we have a guy with a trend of declining performance coupled with a downward trend in virtually every metric that matters to be a competent big-league hitter. That trend has continued for over a year and a half (not a small sample size). May was the classic dead cat bounce.
He’s been dropped to 7th in the order and has been sitting vs. LHP. While a trade out of Boston may inject some life into him, I can’t get behind him in 10 and 12 team 5 OF leagues. My advice is to get out, sell if you can. Bench for sure. Take advantage of a hot streak or see if you can unload him if he is showing a slight pulse in July. Whatever rebound he has, it will likely be short-lived.
Bonus Fact
The crown for the worst 20/20 season based on OPS is held by Anthony Volpe. He went 21/24 with a .666 OPS in 2023. He hit .209 that year. Duran could also be the first person to hit under .200 and go 20/20.
Sam Antonacci
Sam Antonacci doesn’t really scream out as a must-start stud, but he is having a very productive year that nobody seems to care about.
Prorate his stats over 150 games as of July 12, and you get 98/12/56/26/.287. He is even more valuable in OBP format with his .381 OBP. His calling card has been his ability to get on base. Additionally, he has excellent plate discipline and does not chase. His OBP was excellent in the minors and was .400+ at every stop. He’s even second in the league in HBP (17) in only 75 games played.
His prorated numbers run circles around prime Steven Kwan. Antonacci is surprisingly only 45% rostered in Yahoo, and that seems extremely low to me. I think he has even more SB upside. He is the primary leadoff hitter in a much-improved lineup. The one caveat is that he will bat lower or occasionally sit vs LHP, so you can bench him vs LHP if you want to.
Verdict: Buy
He isn’t going to move the needle in power, but he can help in Runs, SB, AVG, or OBP. Additionally, he is not a zero in the other stats either. What are we doing, people? Go get him if he is available in your league. In addition to OF, he qualifies at 2B/3B in Yahoo. How many of you would be happy if you were getting that kind of production from Maikel Garcia?
Thanks for reading. I hope you enjoyed this. I look forward to writing a few more of these pieces.
