Quick Intro
I have been a regular follower of the site for many years. This is my first article. I want to thank the Razzball team for giving me an opportunity, and I wish Disco Stu well. I will be filling in for him, covering the Outfield column.
I’ll start off my first articles with some buys, sells, and holds. I don’t know about you, but it’s always much harder for me to drop players, so I may lean a little more into the why on the drops and sells to help you rationalize them. With nearly 60% of the season complete, we are past the point of patience.
Jarren Duran
In Grey’s 2026 fantasy rankings, Jarren Duran landed at #70 overall in the Top 500 and checked in as the #22 outfielder in the Top 40 Outfielders. Through July 11, he has 13 home runs and 14 stolen bases and is on pace for a 23/25 season. Generally, I think most of us would be pretty happy with that outcome. However, it comes with a .193 batting average and a .610 OPS. Interestingly, he is on a historic pace. If he continues at this rate, he will record the worst 20/20 season in MLB history based on OPS per Stathead. I guess in some leagues there is value in that. I am not here to judge. You do you.
What is going on, you ask? Well, he has pretty much been awful all year except for a stretch of games in May where many of us (me) thought the buy low slammed shut. It ended up only being a hot streak. He hit 9 of his 13 home runs in a span of 27 games. That means he’s hit 4 home runs in his other 60 games played. Half of his RBI total came in the same 27 game stretch.
Let’s dig into his metrics a little more…
Statcast Chart Through July 11
That chart isn’t what I would call sexy. And I am going to show you he earned every bit of it. Don’t be fooled by the barrel rate, which I will touch on below.
Trend Analysis Through July 11
Looking at the trend from his breakout 2024 season, we can see that he is making less contact, striking out more, and has been more aggressive. He could be pressing, but that aggressiveness is not helping him. He’s pulling the ball a lot more, and nearly 20% of his fly balls are pop-ups. He is swinging more, swinging out of the zone more, and swinging and missing more. To me, that’s a Molotov cocktail.
But what about that barrel rate? This is a classic case of a hitter sacrificing plate discipline and contact quality to try to pull the ball and sell out for power. While he may lay into a few and hit some home runs, this profile is volatile, with an extremely low floor. That’s why I’m highlighting June to show just how ugly it could get when he hit .144 with a .395 OPS and struck out 36% of the time. Yikes.
Verdict: Sell
In the world of investing, a dead cat bounce refers to a temporary, short-term recovery in the price of a declining asset, followed by a continuation of a downward trend. If we translate that in terms of Duran, we have a guy with a trend of declining performance coupled with a downward trend in virtually every metric that matters to be a competent big-league hitter. That trend has continued for over a year and a half (not a small sample size). May was the classic dead cat bounce.
He’s been dropped to 7th in the order and has been sitting vs. LHP. While a trade out of Boston may inject some life into him, I can’t get behind him in 10 and 12 team 5 OF leagues. My advice is to get out, sell if you can. Bench for sure. Take advantage of a hot streak or see if you can unload him if he is showing a slight pulse in July. Whatever rebound he has, it will likely be short-lived.
Bonus Fact
The crown for the worst 20/20 season based on OPS is held by Anthony Volpe. He went 21/24 with a .666 OPS in 2023. He hit .209 that year. Duran could also be the first person to hit under .200 and go 20/20.
Sam Antonacci
Sam Antonacci doesn’t really scream out as a must-start stud, but he is having a very productive year that nobody seems to care about.
Prorate his stats over 150 games as of July 12, and you get 98/12/56/26/.287. He is even more valuable in OBP format with his .381 OBP. His calling card has been his ability to get on base. Additionally, he has excellent plate discipline and does not chase. His OBP was excellent in the minors and was .400+ at every stop. He’s even second in the league in HBP (17) in only 75 games played.
His prorated numbers run circles around prime Steven Kwan. Antonacci is surprisingly only 45% rostered in Yahoo, and that seems extremely low to me. I think he has even more SB upside. He is the primary leadoff hitter in a much-improved lineup. The one caveat is that he will bat lower or occasionally sit vs LHP, so you can bench him vs LHP if you want to.
Verdict: Buy
He isn’t going to move the needle in power, but he can help in Runs, SB, AVG, or OBP. Additionally, he is not a zero in the other stats either. What are we doing, people? Go get him if he is available in your league. In addition to OF, he qualifies at 2B/3B in Yahoo. How many of you would be happy if you were getting that kind of production from Maikel Garcia?
Thanks for reading. I hope you enjoyed this. I look forward to writing a few more of these pieces.
Nice Job. I’ve had Antonacci for a while now, hoping they keep him in the top of the lineup.
Think Roman Anthony is even stash worthy at this point?
Thanks. Antonacci cemented himself as the leadoff hitter except vs LHP.It’s his job to lose.
As for Anthony, if you asked me two weeks ago, I would have said he was a lock to get shut down. The updates we finally got are not good: partially torn ligament/tendon, 60-day IL, visiting a hand specialist, Red Sox brass saying taking longer than expected to heal, etc. Somehow, the Red Sox are still only .5 games out of a wildcard spot, which is the only reason they might try to push him to return late in the year. Ultimately, league context is everything. If you have an open IL spot, go for it. The pure upside is worth the gamble if Boston stays in the race. But if stashing him means burning an active roster spot on a guy who hasn’t swung a bat since early May, I would absolutely hold off.
thanks!
Thoughts on Tristan Peters. A Canzone/ Marsh protege? Marsh no longer a platoon bat. Batting 9th in the order doesn’t help Peters. CHW needs to move their All Star up in the lineup.
I would ride Peters while he is hot in deeper formats. His defense and speed will keep him in the lineup in a strong side platoon. He has 31 plate appearance vs LHP and has not fared well. He’s been batting 7th, 8th most often (66 games). His babip is .354 which is higher than any of his minor league stops.
This was a really well done piece my friend.
I was a sports writer for 28 years before the collapse of newspapers, so please consider these next few sentences.
I thought your first effort (minus the typo in the second paragraph (articles), was really well written, clear, concise, informative and entertaining. You’re obviously familiar with investing and the financial markets. It makes sense, because you’re a numbers guy and baseball is a numbers sport.
Your ability to tie the “dead cat” bounce to the same uptick Duran had in May resembles the work of an experienced writer. Very well done. That’s something some writers never figure out how to accomplish.
You’re off to a good start, Toolsy. I look forward to your next piece.
Like my old editor used to scream when we were on deadline trying to bang out our stories late in the night: “Don’t think! Write!”
Thank you for the kind words. I appreciate the feedback. I was trying to illustrate that my first couple of articles are likely going to be buys, sells, etc. Perhaps some more seasoning will help me better articulate my thoughts. Thanks again
Would you trade Henry Bolte for Caleb Durbin or Eric Karros’s kid? 12 team dynasty 5×5 thank you!!
Tough call Hutch. I think if you are looking at pure ceiling, Bolte may be a hold just based on the park. He has some work to do though. Lots of ground balls and still K’s a lot. Durbin is having nice bounce back after a rough start. He seems to have the highest floor out of the three to me and is doing it now which has value. We know he has speed too. He does not have a ton of power or great EV’s but if he continues to pull the ball in the air, he can definitely hit some home runs and be productive after making adjustments with a private hitting instructor. I need to see more of Karros to fully buy in.
you think I can sell Duran for anything right now? The options are hold on and hope he rebounds or cut bait
Yes, and that’s what I referred to in the article. Timing is everything. If he starts showing something after the break, you may be able to unload him. A couple of days off may be good for him too. Take advantage of any good days he can string together and see what happens. It never hurts to try. If he gets traded, there may also be an opportunity to move him.
You just need to play in deeper leagues. In a 30 team league I’m in, I’ve trying to get Duran for most of the year, and owner won’t sell him. Value is relative.
I said in 5 OF 10 and 12 OF leagues. I play in several deep formats. I would not cut him in those leagues, but I would evaluate trading him if there was the right fit if he had a few good games and someone thought he was “back”.
If you are trying to trade for him, keep trying. If he continues down this path and has another brutal month, I believe the owner may lose patience and you can trade for him if you still want to
Welcome Toolsy! Great 1st article… I’m completely rebuilding in a 12 teamer … keep 10 and 12 more farm/stash …. Was able to just recently flip Duran for Sheehan (best I could do) … I also have Antonacci who I agree has been very solid with the arrow up… not really a question in there just talkin out loud haha
Thank you. I will say Sheehan does have his own set of issues, but I think the upside is there. I doubt it will be this year. His velo drops and inability for it to hold up was alarming earlier in the season, but he seems to have gotten over it now. Lately he has been more inefficient and has struggled putting guys away. I personally like the move in dynasty. Give me the younger asset who has not peaked vs one who seemingly has. I like Antonacci too. The Sox found their leadoff guy. He is a perfect fit.
Welcome and congrats on your 1st!
Thank you!
Congrats on a very enjoyable 1st article! Duran has too much talent to be this bad – he’s a textbook change of scenery player.
Thanks Matt. Yeah, I think a change will help but he still has a lot of downside risk with a low floor. He may be able improve or he should be able to, but not unless he makes some adjustments. Not sure if I want to have to sit through it and wait to find out since we know how low that floor can be. I would shop to see what you can get using the same type of logic.
Excellent first post, toolsy!
Thanks Grey! Really appreciate the feedback and look forward to opportunity.
let’s go! welcome aboard, toolsy!
Thanks Truss. Glad to be here!