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2016: 70
2017: 72
2018: 74
2019: 71
2020: 75
2021: 76
2022: 63

Vegas’ oddsmakers have this year’s mark set at 73.5. I’m going under. Sorry, this is meant to help your most important 4th of July DFS. That was Joey Chestnut’s previous seven years with this year’s O/U. You don’t bet on the Glizzy King? Damn, y’all un-American! Oh, I see, you saw this post was about the Reds, and thought we were talking Commies. The borscht eating contest is on May 1st, you missed it! So, Andrew Abbott (7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 12 Ks, ERA at 1.21) keeps rolling. His command (3.1 BB/9) is not as bad as I worried as it might be. Could MLB hitters have no idea to wait on their pitch? Maybe. His fly ball tendency (59.7%), home park and homers allowed in the minors still has me running like I’m Uncle Baby Billy from a wife. The 93 MPH fastball has produced a .152 BAA, which is goofy low, producing a 20 Launch Angle. He is doing it, so there’s something to it, but he’s one of the luckiest pitchers currently. Regression is going to come faster than heartburn for Chestnut. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Spencer Steer – 2-for-3, 2 RBIs and his 14th homer, 2nd homer in three games, third homer last week, and he was moved down to 7-hole, because the Reds have too many weapons. Civil war should take care of that.

Fernando Tatis Jr. – 2-for-4, and his 16th homer, hitting .280. If Fun The Jewels didn’t miss three weeks in April, he’d already be 20/20.

Ha-Seong Kim – 1-for-3 and his 10th homer. He was a hot schmotato last week; this week I say Ha-Same Same.

Michael Wacha – 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks, ERA at 2.84. Didn’t think this was going to be a good start. In Cincy? No thanks! Against the Reds (that’s how it works if in Cincy)? No way! Coming back from an injury? That sounds awful! Wacha continues to wach on.

Royce Lewis – Hit the IL. That took a shockingly long time. Almost fifteen healthy days. SAT Question of the Day: You do one of those shared Uber rides with two hours to get to the airport. Your ride is only twenty minutes away, so plenty of time, but you pick up Royce Lewis, Buxton and Chris Sale, and, if one gets injured on the ride, you’ll have to stop at a hospital for an MRI. How long does it take you to get to the airport?

Jose Miranda – 0-for-2 as he was recalled. He’s started hitting well in the minors (2 HRs, .279 in the last week-plus). In most mixed leagues, I could see grabbing him again if you’re struggling at corner. In the preseason, I called him an upside version of a younger Justin Turner. Call him Thisjustin Value.

Bailey Ober – 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 htis, zero walks, 8 Ks, ERA at 2.70. Fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!) tripping over themselves to get Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Gavin Stone, Grayson, you name the hyped prospect. Mean’s while, Bailey Ober is around a top 20 starter overall.

Sonny Gray – 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks, ERA at 2.50. Whatever nasty cologne Gray’s wearing to fend off the Regression Fairies, give it to some more of my pitchers. Pass the Drakkar, bro!

Kyle Bradish – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks, ERA at 3.58. Went to look at the Player Rater to make a similar claim on Bradish as I did on Ober, but was shocked to find Bradish wasn’t doing all that well. Well (stutterer!), I still like Bradish; he’s not solid. He’s solidish.

MacKenzie Gore – 2 2/3 IP, 7 ER, ERA at 4.48. Gore’d.

Kody Clemens – Optioned to Triple-A. Better than Triple K. Replacing him was Darick Hall. No word yet on catcher, Johnny Oates Jr.  Hall has good power and the starting 1B job against righties (at least), and not much else.

Nick Castellanos – 2-for-5, 2 RBIs and his 12th homer, and 2nd homer in as many games, and 3rd homer in five games. All last year the hard contact The Greek God of Hard Contact was making was in his mother’s giant meat curtain arms, but not this year.

Jeimer Candelario – 1-for-3, 2 runs and his 11th homer. He was in Friday’s Buy column, because he’s been hot for a minute. An Urban Dictionary minute, which is a long time.

Stone Garrett – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs and his 5th homer, and 2nd homer in three games. Hot schmotato alert, sure, but you have to watch playing time.

Hunter Harvey – 1 IP, 0 ER, ERA at 3.16, and his 8th save. SAGNOF! Learn it, embrace it, pay for its dinner. (Not that order.)

Shane McClanahan – Hit the IL with “made-up injury because the Rays want to go deep into the playoffs and they can rest him from now until after the All-Star Break now.” Sadly, there’s no cure for this.

Isaac Paredes – 2-for-2, 2 RBIs and 14th homer. Actually, there was a third RBI, Ran-Barreled-Into by Ty France, which had him lifted from the game.

Taj Bradley – 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER, ERA at 5.11 vs. Luis Castillo – 6 IP, 5 ER, ERA at 3.14. This matchup was billed as, “No pitcher is safe, wanna see?”

Luis Severino – 4 IP, 7 ER, ERA at 6.30. Not great against the St. Louis Shitbirds. Might be time to look elsewhere from Severino (not “might” but I’m being kind).

Jordan Montgomery – 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks, ERA at 3.28. I was told not to say anything last year, but think it’s far enough from the JoMo/Bader trade that I can reveal that someone with knowledge told me the trade was made because the Yankees didn’t want to spend the money on JoMo. A ten-million-dollar contract is too much now for the Yankees. These are not your slightly older brother’s Yankees.

Brendan Donovan – 3-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 9th homer. Not the reason they’re losing, but Donovan just sitting in the leadoff spot all year, while the team has one of their worst years in franchise history, is just Oli Marmol doing nothing like a genius. Would have no idea how to check this, but I bet the Cards have fewer lineup changes than any other last place team. DeJong, and Burleson move. Gorman’s finally moved out of the three-hole after two months, but most guys in that order are Ron Popeil’d.

Julio Urias – 3 IP, 5 ER, ERA at 4.94, as he was activated from the IL. Picked up right where he left off!

Tony Gonsolin – 3 2/3 IP, 4 ER, ERA at 3.69. I am not cheering the regression for my hometown Dodgers’ starters. I am simply riding around in my El Dorado with it written in soap on the doors, “Gonsolin sucks,” as motivation.

Brady Singer – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners (3 walks), 4 Ks, ERA at 5.52. The good news is, that start! The bad news is if you started him it was because you had nothing to lose, and your team is trash.

Corbin Burnes – 7 IP, 1 ER, 1 hit, 2 walks, 7 Ks, ERA at 4.00. Just opened his player page, expecting to see Buy Low, and found a Sell Low. Or “Sell after this great start on Saturday.” Though, none of youse have Burnes because you follow my advice. What good Razzballers you are. Come here, sit on my lap–It’s a figure of speech! Get off me!

Bryan Reynolds – 0-for-4 as he was activated from the IL. Kevin from ESPN’s Get Him In Your Lineup Department said, “We have Tuesday off, then Wednesday work again? I heard Ben Franklin was partying on the 4th and didn’t sign that thing until the 5th? Work on the 5th is Ben Franklin erasure.”

Nick Gonzales – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 2nd homer in only a week of being in the bigs. He’s rostered in my NL-Only leagues (naturally), but tempted to grab him off waivers in deeper mixed leagues, and not just monocle. I’m intrigued, ya’ll!

Yusei Kikuchi – 4 1/3IP, 5 ER, ERA at 4.08. By decree, all starters must have a 4+ ERA, so it’s not surprising. Now he can temporarily dip below it, so you can see the Streamonator‘s thoughts.

Brandon Belt – 2-for-4, and his 5th and 6th homer. When he gets hot schmotato’ing, it goes Flamin’ Hot (not as in the Hulu movie, which was awful).

Garrett Whitlock – Left the game with elbow tightness. Garrett Whitlock still healthier than Jason Whitlock, but only barely.

Jarren Duran – 5-for-5, 3 runs, 4 doubles, and 1 single. So, a pair of fives and four high? Fold that shizz! He’s still striking out too much, but he was hitting leadoff yesterday, and looks hot vs. righties, at least.

Kutter Crawford – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks, ERA at 3.92. Fan of Kutter so don’t throw the rock just yet, but he can’t go very deep into games and will be up and down all year.

Marcus Stroman – 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, ERA at 2.76. It’s not because I don’t have him in any league why I’m loving this regression. *after a millisecond* Okay! That is the reason!

Ryne Nelson – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 hits, 1 walk, 6 Ks, ERA at 4.67. Usually a Dudd Nelson, but looked great on Saturday (except vs. Rendon). Streamonator is barely positive on his next one, and I don’t trust him at all.

Jake Lamb – Released by the Angels. But Ohtani just bought mint jelly!

Reid Detmers – 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks, ERA at 3.72. When someone asks now if they should pick up Detmers, you know what it tells me? After I wrote him up last time out, you ignored me, waiting to see if he were actually good, not believing me. It’s hurtful.

Mickey Moniak – 1-for-3, 3 RBIs and his 9th homer, 2nd homer in three games. Same sentiment as Detmers. After his last homer, I said he’s the biggest positive surprise for the Angels this year. Your heels dragging is sad for me.

Shohei Ohtani – 1-for-4 and his 31st homer, hitting .306. If this were 1912, there would be an Ohtani trophy in 2023 awarded to the best hitter and pitcher.

Paul Blackburn – 5 IP, 5 ER, ERA at 4.50. Welp, *lowers my FAAB bids for Blackburn* Still small sample-ish, but his peripherals do look decent. With the A’s, there’s zero room for error, so still likely can be ignored in most mixed leagues.

Brent Rooker – 1-for-2, 2 RBIs and his 14th homer, hitting .243. First home run since June 11th. He hit .190 in June and .198 in May. Oh, and he made his 1st All-Star Game! You gotta represent the 16 A’s fans. At least he’s not as bad as the Tigers’ All-Star selection, Michael Lorenzen. That gives the AL two, two-way threats!

Jake Burger – 2-for-4, 2 runs and his 18th homer, hitting .220. Someone compared him to Mark Reynolds, and I immediately heard in my head, Burger Donkey.

Michael Kopech – Hit the IL with shoulder inflammation. He hasn’t been great so it doesn’t really matter, but this could be one of those “We’re IL’ing him the week before the break so he gets extra rest.”

Nathan Eovaldi – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners (4 BBs), 5 Ks, ERA at 2.64. Wow, this guy is great at charades! Holy crap! I got it immediately! He’s doing Rick Porcello during his Cy year.

Nathaniel Lowe – 2-for-3, 2 RBIs and his 9th homer. From Nathan to Nathaniel, too bad the Rangers don’t have a Nathanielly.

Spencer Torkelson – 2-for-3, 3 runs and his 1st homer. Just gave you my Spencer Torkelson fantasy. It was lukewarm, but a hot bat is a hot bat. Speaking of which, Kerry Carpenter (2-for-3, 2 runs, 3 RBIs) hit his 8th homer, two homers last week. Also, in this game, Javier Baez (1-for-5, 4 RBIs, 6th homer) made contact and Jake *nick (1-for-4, 4 RBIs) is 60 short of 61.

Christopher Morel – 3-for-5, 3 RBIs and his 15th homer. In 155 career games, he has 31 HRs and 11 steals, hitting .245.

Emmanuel Clase – 1 IP, 4 ER, ERA at 3.40. Was the collective top closer off the board at pick 36. Yup.

Andres Gimenez – 2-for-4, 3 runs, 2 RBIs and a slam (6) and legs (10), hitting .246, as he hit leadoff. Him and Amed Rosario (2-for-5, 2 runs, 2 RBIs, hitting .259) are two of the more yawnstipating players, but they also have a half season left to turn things around.

Spencer Strider – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 9 Ks, ERA at 3.66. Would you believe me if I told you Strider’s mustache pitched the final frame? It did.

Orlando Arcia – 1-for-34 and his 7th homer, hitting .296. Different positions and leagues, but he’s starting in the All-Star Game and Jose Ramirez is not.

Ozzie Albies – 1-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 20th homer. Not rostering any Braves, besides Olson, was not quite been the smartest move Idiot Grey has done.

Ronald Acuña Jr. – 2-for-3, 1 run and 2 steals (38, 39), and a new career-high in steals. He’s headed for a 40/80 season, and when my top 100 for the 2nd half comes out next week, wonder where he’s going to be. Guessing a little bit higher than Idiot Grey did in January.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. – Left yesterday’s game grabbing his side. There’s no better place to be than “unlikely to play” on Monday. He could at least screw up his oblique on Saturday or even Tuesday, so I couldn’t even debate benching him for his guaranteed five days of day-to-day until he hits the IL.

Eury Perez – 1/3 IP, 6 ER, ERA at 2.47. Okay, I get it, you wanna be shut down. Geez, you don’t have to act out.

Sandy Alcantara – 5 IP, 4 ER, 7 baserunners, 6 Ks, ERA at 4.93. Last year’s NL Cy Young winner has become a streamer. Incredible: Streamonator.

Pete Alonso – 2-for-4, 2 runs, 3 RBIs and his 25th homer, hitting .221. Albombso!

Justin Verlander – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks, ERA at 3.66. He looks like he’s become a pitch-to-contact junkballer. Kate Upton married Verlander, woke up next to Jaime Moyer.