After going over the top 20 shortstops for 2020 fantasy baseball, I needed a cigarette. A good after-sex cigarette, not a waiting-to-go-into-court-to-hear-if-you-have-to-spend-18-months-in-jail cigarette. Subtle, but important differences. We also hit up the top 20 catchers for 2020 fantasy baseball, the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball and the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball. In no way was that clickbait. Okay, onto the hot corner. Here’s Steamer’s 2020 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2020 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. All projections listed are mine and I mention where I see tiers starting and stopping. Good times, dyn-o-mite! Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball:
ALL PROJECTIONS ARE BASED ON 60 GAMES PLAYED, DUE TO COVID-19. BE SAFE OUT THERE!
1. Jose Ramirez – Went over him in the top 20 for 2020 fantasy baseball.
2. Nolan Arenado – Went over him in the top 20 for 2020 fantasy baseball.
3. Anthony Rendon – Went over him in the top 20 for 2020 fantasy baseball.
4. Alex Bregman – Went over him in the top 20 for 2020 fantasy baseball.
5. Rafael Devers – Went over him in the top 20 for 2020 fantasy baseball.
6. Manny Machado – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Moistasskiss. I call this tier, “Every day I’m shuffling.” Shuffling as in changing my rankings. I’ve reranked this tier a few dozen times, going Vlad, Eugenio, Machado, Chapman, Moncada, Muncy, then changing it to Machado, Eugenio, Chapman, Moncada, Muncy, Vlad, then changing–Well, you know how one reranks. I still want to change it, and, honestly, this ranking makes sense since (almost stutterer!) yesterday to today, but if I were drafting right now, I can’t see myself going Glad Vuerrero Junior over Machado or Moncada. Or maybe I can! Ugh, this tier has me so confused. I just honestly can’t see myself pulling the trigger on Vlad Jr. this high, so I went with this ranking. I know, it’s a lot bolder and sexier to have Vlad Junebug up here and Machado down a few spots, but Machado does 30/5/.270 pretty easily and I don’t know if Vladimir Punim does. As for Machado, already went over him in the top 20 shortstops for 2020 fantasy baseball.
7. Eugenio Suarez – Was a bit surprised by how well he hit his 49 homers last year. I assumed there would be a ton of ‘Just Enoughs.’ There were some, obviously, I mean, he’s a pull hitter who plays in a park where the left field fence is only 328 feet away, but he hit some absolute monster shots to center. Okay, “some” is underplaying his hand. I watched more of his home runs than I care to admit (about 15) and he hit mostly bombs. Looking at his Statcast numbers, he hit only six homers 370 feet and shorter. That’s still almost fifty feet past the fence if he’s pulling the ball, which he does 52% of the time, which is third in the majors behind Kepler and Pujols. Eugenio’s HR/FB% of 29.5% does seem a bit goofy, but if it comes down to 23%, his previous season mark, he still hits 38 HRs. Power is up around the league, but hitting 38 homers with ease is still great. 2020 Projections: 30/14/39/.274/1 in 215 ABs
8. Yoan Moncada – It’s deceiving that every time you say Yoan aloud, you inadvertently yawn and then everyone near you also yawns. Shizz is contagious. His numbers aren’t yawn-worthy, yawny or even yawnstipating. Without much effort, I can get him to 30/15. The only real issue is what will his average be. Last year, he hit .315, but that’s super misleading like following an exit sign in a casino. 45 minutes and $500 later you’re wondering why each exit sign leads directly to an ATM. Moncada did lower his strikeout rate (27.5% from 33.4%), but a .406 BABIP shows he was a tad lucky, if ‘tad’ meant ‘exceptionally’ instead of what it does mean. He did have a top eight exit velocity and 47.9% Hard Hit, which accounts for his .291 xBA and a higher than usual BABIP. If I were to put my brain and Moncada’s Hard Hit% in a supercomputer, I’d guess he hits around .270 without a change in his strikeout rate. Strikeout rates do get better and he’s only 24. 2020 Projections: 31/10/35/.272/4 in 206 ABs
9. Matt Chapman – The Launch Angle Revolution (LAR) started by Dwayne Murphy and Che Guevara in the 1950s outside of a bar in Havana after a bunch of Roman Cokes (what rum and Coke is called when you’re wearing a toga and about to start a revolution) took a long time to reach the major leagues, but it has fully been embraced by these 3rd basemen. Hard to find a guy in these top ten 3rd basemen that don’t hit everything in the air. That’s good because Our Commissioner Manfred is injecting steroids into the Guatemalan seamstresses who are sewing the balls together so the stitches are extra tight. Chapman actually looks to me like he’s a 36-homer guy going on 42 homers vs. going the other way. Bit surprised he hit as low as .249 last year too. Everything, and I mean everything, is going the right way for him. This tier is sexy and I’d be happy with any of them, even if it wasn’t easy to settle on a ranking. 2020 Projections: 35/14/39/.256/1 in 214 ABs
10. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – One last note about Glad Jr.’s ranking before talking about him. As it would be hard to draft him before Machado, it would be equally hard for me to draft Muncy before Vlad the Impala, so this is why this ranking is what it is, even if Muncy’s projections prolly look a scooch better than Guerrero’s. Really about upside and Vladdy the Baddy’s upside over Muncy’s. So, therefore, ergo, Vlad Jr.! He’s still overrated from the early drafts I’ve seen. I’m all for giving guys the Benefit of the Doubt. Mostly the BofD comes when a guy can give five categories, because worst case scenario is he still chucks in 10 steals. Tiny Vlad doesn’t have that luxury. If he doesn’t hit 32+ homers and .285+, he’s just not going to return value of a top 50 pick. The Blew Kays are clearly in the past. The Blue Jays will be better in 2020. But, let’s be real, who is hitting behind Vlad? I know, you have to crane your neck to see around his posterior, but try. Will Vlad get anywhere near 80 runs? I think 90 RBIs might even be asking for a lot. Gonna be hard to imagine a season from him where he’s even surpassing Moncada’s projected runs and RBIs. There’s obviously a possible season here of 40/.310 and the runs and RBIs are whatever, and that would make Guerrero a steal this late, but paying for that upside vs. the floor and upside of a Machado or Moncada just feels wrong. Ask me again tomorrow and I might reconsider. 2020 Projections: 29/11/34/.291 in 211 ABs
11. Max Muncy – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
12. Josh Donaldson – He signed with the Twins and all aboard the Feel-Good Train for me. Mentioned this the other day with Jorge Polanco, but I know most of people’s stats from last year. For a Price is Right game, I’m coming within a couple homers for everyone. Then, enter Josh Donaldson. My yodeler is going over the cliff with him. He homered 37 times last year? Was everyone aware of this? I feel like someone hacked the baseball stats and added an extra ten homers. If he would’ve got a start on his career a little sooner, he’d be looking down the barrel of a borderline Hall of Fame case. That’s called a Blyleven. Only real worry for Donaldson is his health. His perfs (as the kids say) check out. I’m a big Muncy fan — Funcy? Fancy? Hmm, needs work. — and even I have to admit if Donaldson’s healthy, his projections will be about equal to that of Muncy. In fact (Grey’s got more!), last year Muncy finished 56th on the Player Rater and Donaldson finished 58th. Only thing that better not happen, and I mean, never-ever-ever-amen happen. He better not cost Sano at-bats, because I love that Butterball of Biscuits this year. 2020 Projections: 35/12/36/.254/1 in 189 ABs
13. Mike Moustakas – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
14. Kris Bryant – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until McNeil. I call this tier, “Billy Noel.” By the tier name I mean you’re psyched to go see Billy Joel. You can’t believe he’s playing in front of the AMC Theater at your local mall. Seems too good to be true, but thinking about Scenes From An Italian Restaurant being played adjacent to your favorite Buca di Beppo is just amazing! You tell your friends and ask if they want to meet you there, but that’s when they lay on you it’s Billy Noel not Billy Joel. It’s an impersonator who does Christmas songs. Now it makes sense why the announcement said he’d be doing some of his greatest hits like It’s Still Rock and Coal To Me, Mrs. Claus’s Got A Way and We Didn’t Start The Yule Log. That’s this tier. They seem too good to be true to me, and I think they’re gonna lead to disappointment. As for Bryant, 2018 was an outlier. That’s clear now. His HR/FB% plummeted, due to his shoulder injury, and everything tanked. Ya know what’s interesting (to me) and kinda throws the shoulder injury narrative in the garbage? His exit velocity and average homer distance were higher in 2018. The hips may not lie, but I don’t know if the Statcast numbers do. Bryant’s peripherals are ugly. I could absolutely see a scenario where Bryant gets a few more fly balls into the Wrigley wind and challenges 40 homers, and has a career year, but Martin Maldonado barreled up about as many pitches as Bryant. I don’t know, and I could absolutely be wrong, but I’m out on Bryant. 2020 Projections: 38/10/30/.278/1 in 207 ABs
15. Yuli Gurriel – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
16. DJ LeMahieu – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
17. Eduardo Escobar – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
18. Jeff McNeil – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
19. Miguel Sano – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Anderson. I call this tier, “An Italian man in the hills of Tuscany, shouting, ‘Now-a that’s-a chef’s kiss!'” I love the guys in this tier. P to the erhaps more than I should, but here we are. This is also the last tier I feel good about drafting from the 3rd basemen. This is hopefully just a corner or utility man in your league, but if you don’t have a 3rd baseman yet what exactly are you waiting for? Don’t answer, draft! As for Sano, went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
20. Hunter Dozier – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
21. Scott Kingery – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
22. Danny Santana – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
23. J.D. Davis – Already gave you my J.D. Davis sleeper. Wrote it while contemplating the difference between discreet and discrete. 2020 Projections: 27/10/30/.288/1 in 198 ABs
24. Tommy Edman – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
25. Michael Chavis – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
26. Ryan McMahon – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
27. Ian Happ – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
28. Renato Nunez – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
29. Kevin Newman – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
30. Brian Anderson – I just watched about 50 Anderson at-bats (so you don’t have to), and I came away convinced he could hit 30+ homers if he made an adjustment to his swing. Wonder if I could buy Pete Alonso a train ticket to sit next so him and Brian Anderson could discuss that if there’s a ball Alonso wants to murder and Anderson wants to murder, they could switch murders to eliminate the motive, or I might’ve fell asleep watching Strangers on a Train. Nah, seriously, Anderson’s got a solid line drive stroke, which is gonna leave him with 17-20 homer, but he could hit 27+ homers with a small tweak to up his fly ball rate. 2020 Projections: 27/9/30/.271/1 in 205 ABs
31. Gio Urshela – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Riley. I call this tier, “S.A.A.D. City (feat. MC Things-ain’t-aight).” This tier is named for the Kendrick Lamar song and stands for Suckers All About Drafting. I’ve also seen it stand for Sleepers when you don’t have Anything Alse (sic) in your Draft. I’m more with the 1st definition, but maybe there’s some value here if you’re in a pinch. I’m at best looking at these guys for a utility slot in super deep leagues. In shallower leagues (12 team or shallower), I don’t trust any of these guys. As for Gio, his xBA at .294 is better than Justin Turner’s .288. No, that doesn’t mean everything, but–Actually, with these two guys, their expected batting average might just mean it all. The more I dig in on Urshela, the more I dig him. He hit real blasts, not cheap shots. He barrels up a decent amount and finished top 30 in line drive rate. Urshela does seem like the 1st guy who is replaced if the Yankees find a bright shiny object on the trade market, or the first guy you replace on your fantasy team if you see a bright shiny object on waivers. Let’s be honest, you ain’t going to sleep at night, kneeling next to your bed, thanking your God for Urshela. 2020 Projections: 24/7/26/.302/1 in 181 ABs
32. Justin Turner – Starting to see some cracks in the Turner batted ball profile. His average on fastballs in 2018 was .282 and .313 last year. That’s good, great, adjective. How’sever, his breaking ball xBA year over year went .284 to .217. Maybe that’s nothing, but what I think it is: as a hitter gets older he has to cheat more on fastballs to get around on them, so if you’re looking fastball, you’re prone to whiffing on breaking balls. If it took me a minute-thirty to establish a game plan for Turner, guess how long it will take major league teams. His chase rate (28.1%) was also up above where it had been for the last five years, since he shook the funk of the Mets off his Gritty-like locks. 2020 Projections: 26/8/27/.278/1 in 182 ABs
33. Tommy La Stella – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
34. Starlin Castro – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
35. Nick Solak – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
36. Austin Riley – I’ll be honest with you, I had him ranked about 20 spots before this, but decided to move him down after the OZUNA signing. If the 1st half of his last year is who he is, then he’s easily playing over Camargo at 3rd. If the 2nd half of his first year is who he is, well…. His 36% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate are hilarious in the same way it’s someone’s job to change out the batteries on a doomsday clock. Riley wouldn’t be the first guy to come up after solid minor league numbers, get chewed up and then turn his career around. He also wouldn’t be the first guy to continue to get chewed up either and need to be traded to reinvent himself. His March might define his role for 2020 and the foreseeable future. Legitimately have no idea of what to make of him, but his 2nd half was S.A.A.D. City. 2020 Projections: 21/7/24/.241/1 in 151 ABs
37. Hanser Alberto – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Asdrubal. I call this tier, “See a different post, my dude.” As for Hanser, went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball..
38. Luis Arraez – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
39. Yandy Diaz – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
40. David Fletcher – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
41. Matt Carpenter – Can take too much away from postseason games, but in the game where the Cards blew out the Braves, Carpenter pulled himself from the game. Fantasy baseballers would do well to follow his lead. 2020 Projections: 18/5/19/.238/1 in 141 ABs
42. Asdrubal Cabrera – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
43. Kyle Seager – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the list. I call this tier, “You thought PST was two hours behind EST, but it’s three.” So, you obviously got the time of your draft wrong and you’re looking at drafting later than anticipated. No worries, there’s a 1 in 450 chance one of these guys is worth owning. As for Seager, he’s not that much worse than his brother. *super long awkward pause* Unfortunately, his brother isn’t that great either. 2020 Projections: 23/9/26/.232/1 in 199 ABs
44. Maikel Franco – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed by the Royals. His peripherals are actually pretty interesting in a super depressing type way. He hits the ball vewy, vewy soft, said like Elmer Fudd. Which wouldn’t be terrible if he were fast, except his legs also move vewy, vewy slow. A slow, soft swing isn’t bad if he were, say, hunting wabbits. For baseball? It’s a tad less ideal.” And that’s me quoting me! 2020 Projections: 19/8/24/.241 in 186 ABs
45. Todd Frazier – Upside is 25 HRs/.250 and downside is 12 HRs/.250 and he retires in July. 2020 Projections: 21/7/23/.241 in 160 ABs
46. Travis Shaw – Here’s what I said when he signed with the Jays, “I’m not saying he’s going to win the MVP this year, but I’m not saying he’s not not going to win it either.” And that’s me expecting huge things from Travis Shaw again! 2020 Projections: 21/7/23/.224/1 in 165 ABs
47. Evan Longoria – Tell your slightly younger cousin that Evan Longoria used to be one the best hitters in baseball all the way back in 2016 and they will never believe another word that you say. 2020 Projections: 19/6/23/.248/1 in 166 ABs
48. Howie Kendrick – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
49. Jose Peraza – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
50. Jose Osuna – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
51. Rio Ruiz – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
52. Colin Moran – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
53. Joey Wendle – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
54. David Bote – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball..
55. Jon Berti – Went over him in the top 20 shortstops for 2020 fantasy baseball.
56. Willians Astudillo – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2020 fantasy baseball.
57. Ty France – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
58. Johan Camargo – Went over him in the top 20 shortstops for 2020 fantasy baseball.
59. Sheldon Neuse – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
60. Eric Sogard – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
61. Josh VanMeter – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
62. Jeimer Candelario – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
63. Ryon Healy – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
64. Marwin Gonzalez – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
65. Josh Fuentes – Bud Black will absolutely start Fuentes for 175 at-bats and he’ll hit, like, 17 homers and then get benched for the newly acquired Greg Bird or someone else equally puzzling. 2020 Projections: 11/4/14/.241 in 75 ABs
66. Matt Thaiss – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball.
67. Ke’Bryan Hayes – Pirates prospect with a name that would make any football player jealous. Didn’t write him up in my fantasy baseball rookies (not clickbait at all, why do you accuse me of these things?) because the Pirates’ womb is polluted like Michelle Pfeiffer’s and, holy smokes, she’s still so hot at 61 years old. Bless you and Michelle Pfeiffer’s plastic surgeon! Any hoo! Hayes is 12/12/.275 at best. I mean, on his tippy toes touching his ceiling, so that’s kinda bleh, especially prorated to at best two-thirds of a season. 2020 Projections: 15/3/11/.26146 in 104 ABs
Awesome job on the Brian Anderson skit!! HAHA
Minnesota is great for RH power. If Donaldson stays on the field all year and the ball is the same I could see 40 HR.
10 team h2h points league – keep forever league
Do you keep Vlad Jr or Bryant?
Rizzo for Eugenio Suarez? I have a need at third. But this seems fair regardless. Thoughts?
Nice lists! I’m a fan of Luis!!
Hi Grey. 6×6 14 team roto no salaries no contracts. Avg, Obp, HR, RBI, Runs, and SB. ERA, WHIP, Saves, Wins, Holds, and IP. Been offered Soroka for my Benintendi. My pitching sucks but worried about regression from Soroka. What are you thoughts. Thanks a million.
Dynasty…would you keep Urshela or Andujar?
It amazes me that Kris Bryant is going 56 overall in NFBC. He probably won’t out produce JD Davis, H. Dozier or many guys post 200+ ADP by much. So, people are passing on Lucas Gioloto, Paddack or Morton for him? Id much rather have a low ERA, high K SP there and not too many of those available in the JD Davis ADP range. Just sayin’.
Yeah, I don’t get it… Bryant’s MVP looks like a major outlier at this point
2020 seems like a great time to wait and draft your 3B in the number 15-20 range. Lots of better things to do with higher picks IMO
Yeah, agreed…First time in a while, I like the idea of waiting on corner men
Hi, Grey. Thought provoking list, with particularly intriguing tiers here. Andujar’s an odd exclusion though. Unresolved PT issue with Urshella. But, supposed to be ready for spring training. Giving him an incomplete until he proves so? Maybe he’s a few weeks behind the full time gig. But he doesn’t somehow crack the 61 name list of Top 20 3Bs? Not even a huge fanboy here (think he’ll be overdrafted, as opposed to forgotten). But marking him absent, when he only may be coming in late to class, is a crappy teacher stunt.
Andujar has only UTIL eligib.
Wow. Had no idea. I retract the crappy teacher metaphor, Fantasy Master Lothario.
Ha, No problem
This is great – so much value at the back end there. Feels like no one likes E Escobar / Hunter / JDD compared to similarly ranked guys like Gurriel, DJ + McNeil. I’ll happily weight and grab one of those for my 3B at at the end of the draft in 12 teamers. Wouldn’t be surprised if 1 or more were there at the end of standard drafts for only a buck or two. Also feel like Urshela is going to be a surprising steal . . . yanks have got to trade Andujar + Voit feels more at-risk than Gio.
Anyway, off topic, but. . .
How much do you think Yordan would go in a keeper league auction (12 teams, $260 budget)? For reference, in this league’s auction last year, Yelich went for $47, Rizzo went for $31, Verlander for $39, Starling Marte for $39, Cruz for $20, etc.
Trying to figure out if my $29 Yordan keeper is a deal or basically what I’d pay to re-draft him anyway.
Wait* (siri autocorrect fail)
You have Siri commenting?!
haha nah – i meant that my phone autocorrected when i was typing it. Even though that’s technically not Siri, I like to think that Siri is the malevolent conductor of all things frustrating-iphone-quirks.
Haha, Siri can ruin everything around me — SCREAM!
You’d redraft Yordan for near $29 — Maybe $35? Hard to say
Urshela could be okay, but Andujar and Voit are there
PLUS Mike Ford
Haha, you love Mike Ford!
HA! I love all my Yankees equally..
Haha, such a homer!
SEEE YA, a long homer homer for Ford, that is 30 and it is only August! In a Michael Kay voice course! Hows that for being a homer! lol
Great Stuff! 5×5 one-year draft. Would you take Kluber, Carrasco, Paxton or Woodruff?
Thanks! Starter rankings will be out next week… I think Paxton or Woodruff
I’ve got to knock Bregman down a few pegs at least, to what degree he benefited from the sign stealing is an unknown quantity but I have to believe it is tangible. The pressure on Bregaman and Altuve to prove otherwise will be great and any faltering will only increase that pressure, how do they handle it? Plus, punishment for Astro players that cheated is not out of the realm of possibility at this point.
Yeah, or you can see a scenario where they want to prove people wrong and do just that… I’m just going off of their actual stats, and Bregman had too many short fly balls, which could hurt him
I agree with what you said but there’s no way I’m drafting Bregman in the first round which is where he’s been going and I’ll happily draft Machado in the fourth, I believe he delivers a better year than Bregman anyway.
Agree with that scenario. Loving the rankings Grey
I’d do Yelich in both
I’ve been really enjoying your rankings!
Quick question: 14 team, H2H, points (qs instead of wins), $260 cap. Keep 12
Would you trade:
Verlander $35 / $4 Eddie Rosario
Yelich 29/ Luzardo $3
My other potential keepers are (all two year contracts)
14 Olson, 10 Vlad, 10 Pham, 10 Soler, 20 Mondesi, 10 McNeil, 10 Hiura, Woodruff, 6 Bieber, 10 Giolito
He may ask for Giolito instead of Verlander. (Verlander contract is one year and giolito is 2)
Take Yelich in both scenarios?
Thanks! Yelich side
Great stuff! 5×5, would you take Kluber, Woodruff or Paxton?
So glad we’re back in baseball season and we have you waxing poetically every day!!
I know your top 100 won’t drop for a week or so but wanted to get your opinion on this.
Yahoo, 10 team, 6×5 including ops league. We can keep up to 7 players and each player’s keeper value is tied into the round they were drafted. Below are 8 of my players with their draft round in parenthesis. Who is the odd man out and gets tossed back into the draft pool and IS NOT kept?
Trout (round 1)
Yelich (round 2)
Mondesi (round 3)
Scherzer (round 6)
Olson (round 7)
Arenado (round 13)
Albies (round 14)
Acuña (round 24)
Jesus, Are you the only team in your league? I’d lose Albies.
Lol it’s a 10 team league going on it’s 8th year. This is what a team looks like who’s been reading Gray and listening to his advice for almost a decade. Every player was drafted before they blew up, except Yelich. I traded for him two years ago.
All good, Charlie! Solid team!
I saw your comment below and just want to make sure I’m following along correctly. Of my 8 players, you’d drop Albies and keep the other 7?
Yup, all of them are great, but you have to throw back one
I also own Villar and Hiura so I’m hoping by throwing back 3 quality 2nd basemen (Albies, Villar, Hiura), I’ll be able to easily re-draft one of them.
Damn, your team is really stacked
Gray, can you do me a favor? I want you to walk over to a mirror, look at it, and say “G-d damn that’s one sexy mustache. But not as sexy as my fantasy baseball skills.” Razzball is 100% the reason why this team is so loaded.
Haha, No problem! Thanks!
Depends on who is available round 3. Based on your other keepers you could probably get Ruth or Gehrig there. If so keep Albies instead of Mondesi. If you can only get Mays or Mantle then keep Mondesi and drop Albies which will suck because you’ll probably be replacing him with only someone like Joe Morgan or Ryne Sandberg
No Austin Riley ‘cuz he’s just that bad or because he’s not 3B eligible in most league formats!?!?
Only played 5 games so I assume inelligible
Need 5 games started or 10 games played — He only had 4 games started
I’ve always been a Racquel Welch is still hot at 79 kind of guy myself.
Couple things. Arenado drama is hot. Signs huge contract, 1 year later no love cause team can’t spend any more $. Not becuase of Torenado contact but Desmond, Davis, Bryan Shaw, Jake Mcgee, Murphy.
Everyone else besides Blackmon, Oberg, German are under arbitration. I could see them moving him now with what has come out, doesnt seem like time to dig your feet in, Move him now and Charlie comes off books next year. Seems like they could get some pitching for Arenado now, and sign Mookie in 2021 with Story. Rodgers can play 3rd, Colton Walker is a year away.
I think they would make the trade for Libatore and one of the Cards two catching prospects. They could then turn around and trade Charlie and Desmond quickly after that creating room for Hilliard and Hampson until Betts arrives.
Wishful thinking, but seems to make sense.
Also Bryant arbitration could see him moved still once a decision is reached. I could see the Rays making a move because well…the Rays like to make moves and they are in a window to compete now. Maybe a McKay for Bryant deal?
Wow, just Googled her, she’s smoking! Haha
Rockies are so stupid, why would they even sign him if they wanted out… They have to be mental…
If I’m Rays, I’d send McKay for Bryant, but doesn’t mean Cubs would (or should)
Rockies have always been under Hurdle’s Girdle. Bunch of idiots running the asylum. I think the 2021 opt out clause was put in less for future contract oppurtunity, and more as an out if Rockies weren’t competitive. Seems 71-91 last year is enough to force the issue. Torenado is a competitive dude.
I think the Cubs might consider it if Bryant wins case, but agree they probably need more. I don’t see Bryant resigning in Chicago. Think Philly is in his future.
Assuming this is correct, and I’m not saying it’s not, they expected to be better last year?
If Cubs make a trade like that, Theo will be gone to another team that is on the verge of competing like the Padres
Sure they won wild card previous two years, had the playoff for the division. Same staff coming back other than Ottavino. I think they were right there ready to topple the Dodgers. (At least in their minds)
Maybe Theo to the Orioles!
Haha, poor Theo for even you thinking that for him!
Mountcastle is his new Bryant. He needs to trade Means for a franchise changing 1B.
If Mountcastle doesn’t start year with O’s, I might give up on whole franchise
Great work, as always, Grey!
For my one keeper this year in a 15 team league, I’m torn between:
Mondesi (Round #3 = #45 pick) or
McNeil (Round #21 = #305 pick)
Which one would you choose?
Thanks Grey!! A couple of questions on Moncada:
1. What are odds he regains 2B eligibility?
2. He came up as 5 tool, but steals are kinda hovering. What’s keeping that from jumping to 20+?
3. K’s are down, but BB rate is also declining every year for him (12.6-10.3-7.2). What do you make of that?
Thanks again Grey, love your work.
I doubt it. Robert likely being up to start year means they have 3 everyday players in outfield with Jimenez and Mazara. Engel will be 4th OF and Garcia likely at 2B almost everyday.
He’s had leg issues every year since 2017. Knee and Hamstrings. The speed is still there. Also they might be hesitant giving him full time green light as lineup has improved and his steal success rate is around 65%.
Walk rate is down because dude keeps getting better. He’s making solid contact on more pitches that come into the zone. Z-Contact rate keeps climbing at about the rate his walk% has been decreasing. He’s still a free swinger just putting more in play. (.406 BABIP is also nice)
Madrigal isn’t at 2B?
Also, I don’t see how getting better equals walking 50% less often. Are there other guys where you’d make the same argument?
Think Knoche meant Madrigal… Robert is obviously in OF; Leury Garcia is at 2B (for now) then Madrigal gets called up…Or Madrigal starts year… Depends if they want Leury at all, which they may not, and it wouldn’t surprise me
Sorry for confusion, Yeah Madrigal will be up at some point. Leury in last year of Arb this year, I thought they agreed already but could be wrong. Guessing he starts year at 2B, and since OF is jammed now Moncada likely will be only at 3B.
Yup, figured what you meant
BTW, Moncada has one of the better batted ball profiles in baseball
1. 5 to 1? I don’t know, seems unlikely, but possible
2. Agree with knoche
3. Again, what knoche said… I think Moncada is legit, and could breakout in big way
Still struggling to see what you are saying. Are there other examples of guys who get better at hitters and have the walk rate drop by 50%?
His walk rate went from 10.3% to 7.2%, where are you seeing 50%? He had a top 3% exit velocity, and his zone swing% went up…So, he became more aggressive and hit everything hard — that’s good
He was 12.6 the year before. Not a full season, but still about 250 PA
So you’re going two years back to a third of a season?
We’ll have to agree to disagree on whether that’s a relevant stat haha
In this case. I would agree with myself that it’s not.
If you were to include Andujar, which tier would he be in. Thanks as always Grey!
I currently have Andujar by Happ in overall rankings
Thanks for another stellar writeup. I’ve asked about it recently in the comments and this confirms for me that it’s time to sell Bryant in my dynasty league while his perceived value (ESPN has him at 40 overall/ 7th 3B) far exceeds his actual value.
We’ll see what I can get in exchange, there seems to be a lot of interest.
Going to give Earthgang a listen today.
Nice! Top Down is my jam!
Love this recommendation. Some of it has a Chance the Rapper vibe, and some of it is old Outkast, and some of it is something else. All excellent.
I had to double check to make sure Johnny Venus didn’t make a cameo on Big Day.
I hear old Outkast, for sure…Chance is interesting, now that you say that I can hear it a little…
Maxo is solid as well. You need another blog for tv shows music and books
What’s next for tv shows?
Yeah, it’s true… We were thinking about doing something lifestyle-wise but we never got it off the ground
Watch The Expanse on Amazon
Expanse is amazing! Awesome book series too if you’re a fan of sci fi fiction.
I’m reading the book, Killers of the Flower Moon. Went with you on this. Very good history book, about how cruel man can be to each other for power and creed.
Did you know that Paramount bought the upcoming movie rights from DiCaprio and Scorsese?
Amazing book. I’ve read all of Grann’s works and while I think “Killers” is the most fascinating read, I recommend them all.
Hey Cram, I plan on reading all of Grann’s books.
Good tip, Cram! I might read more of his work after I’m done
The Devil and Sherlock Holmes has some crazy (short) fascinating stories in it. A few of those were made into movies too!
Non-fiction stories, of course.
Nice, will check it out!
They already made a movie out of his “Lost City of Z” but I haven’t seen it.
Lost City of Z was about this? Hmm…I hadn’t seen it, but now curious
No, no, Lost City of Z was a different book by Grann that was turned into a movie.
Sounds like a good read. I’m on the back half of “Escape from Camp 14”. It’s about a North Korean political prisoner who was born/raised in the camp/prison. Kind of like a Skinner box rat experiment that’s been going on for 50+ years. This guy was born in the prison with no context of what ‘normal’ life is like.
Bear, I’ll write it down for books to read. Thanks for the tip.
packers, if you like nonfiction, see my comment
Wow, bigbear, that’s intense… I might have to read that… My last book was Undoing Project, but going back a few was The Mastermind by Evan Ratliff which was solid nonfiction
Crazy part – it’s a true story. When the book was written, only a dozen or so people have survived an escape from a NK prison camp. This guy has been the only one from this particular camp. The author is more a news reporter than a storyteller. He flips from history/culture to the actual story itself frequently trying to give a better context. But it’s not seamless. I appreciated the history lesson. My wife didn’t.
I like Michael Lewis (though I haven’t actually read Money Ball). I liked the Big Short and Flash Boys. Sounds interesting.
Interesting on NK prison camp, I’ll have to check it out, I don’t mind straight history… One of the best books I’ve ever read was Michael Oren’s Six Days of War, which was straight history
You have to read Moneyball immediately…
Escape From Camp 14 is fantastic and paints a very clear picture of how horrible N Korea is.
Yeah, I’m still reading it (got sidetracked with my European vacation), but it’s great so far — Yeah, I heard Scorsese is out scouting locations for it, but didn’t hear that until after I started reading it
Have you read the Uber book Super Pumped? Quite the tale.
Nah, but it looks good! That’s exactly the kind of shizz up my alley
Wait till you read about Grayscale…American Kingpin is my favorite rise/fall book.
I know about Grayscale, it’s fascinating, agreed
Great post, man!
a. I almost wrote excellent. Trying to blend in with the crowd. Now I’ve insulted at least one of them, classic Ante move. Where is the guy who called me anti this and anti that or the guy who loved Judge too much from your SS top 20 report (from yesterday) which was also great / excellent?? Who knows? Piscotty knows!
b. Almost wrote ‘Gray’ instead of ‘Grey’. Very true story! It lasted less than a millisecond but there was a brain synapse somewhere doing a somersault while another brain synapse was kicking THAT brain synapse in the face saying ‘Hey, have some respect. It’s Grey Albright we’re talking about here!’
c. What’s new?, not much. Still haven’t booked the slam dunk restaurant for the anniversary ’cause it can only be booked 2 months or 50 days (it changes from day to day) in advance not like other places which just have an open calendar 6 months in advance. So, I’m on it, checking every day and waiting for THAT day to be free so I can book it. I’m like a cockroach romantic – no one and nothing can kill the romantic in me.
d. On 3B, wow! How low can you go? I don’t want any of these 3B, but I guess if I have to draft one I will. Just not a lot of great options like at SS. Will take two SS, one who qualifies at 3B and the other who qualifies at SS ’cause don’t like any of these options.
e. For future reference, you should have the following tiers.
1. The ‘So many tears, my tiers’ tier
It was inspired by this song
I met the singer when he came to Toronto. This tier has guys you really like (like for you Giancarlo) but who for sure will cause you tears of sadness.
2. ‘That sound that dogs make just before they are going to barf’ tier
This tier is populated by guys for whom you know will crap the bed but at least you’re informed that they are here. It’s not like you didn’t know. It’s kind of like a fail safe, like the bank limiting internet banking transactions to a maximum amount in any given 24 hour period.
f. Cat’s out of the bag. Love you, razzball nation. Love you, Grey!
What is the slam dunk restaurant you want to book (you are still going to Amsterdam right?)
Are you going for Ciel Blue in Okura?
Bas from Holland!
The ‘slam dunk’ (Grey’s comments!! haha!) is to Vuur torren eisland restaurant. I need to book that one for 29 April. Ciel Bleu is booked for 30 April. We are staying in Okura for 7 nights from 25 April to 2 May.
Otherwise, how are you?
Don’t forget to take your orange shirts with you since April 27 is Kings Day.
Nice, you are going to have dinner at an island.;-)
The other restaurant in Okura is also very good.
Other good one is Bistro Neuf, located in a nice street.
One of my favorite fish restaurants is Stork. nice location and good food (close to my office;-))
Skylounge is great for cocktails.
If you need any tips please let me know.
I’m doing well thank you, busy with work (we have a big launch in a few months) so I have to travel to NY a bit more than usual.
Bas from Holland
Bas, you should crash Ante’s anniversary dinner, his wife would love that!
He will be on an island: Vuurtoren eiland is close by Amsterdam. An old artillery battery/island.
But I will crash on of the other ones, no worries.;-)
Bas, from Holland
Ante! Thanks! No one would say you’re anti anything with that positive attitude!
B. Damn, that hurts
C. I went to Europe, looked all over for you, came up emptyhanded and returned
D. You’ll draft one and like it!
E. Haha, Frankie Knuckles! He was the best (is he alive still?)
F. Right back at ya!
a. Ga!!!!! Sorry I missed you, though I was more than 1000 miles away and trapped in Croatia. Since ‘our’ dog arrived, my day consists of waking up at 05h30 and going to sleep at 22h30 taking Simba out for ‘walks’ seven (7) times a day! Really I missed y’all. How was your trip? I hope it worked out at least weather-wise.
b. Yes, Frankie Knuckles our friend. Don’t know if he’s still alive. He was alive in the late 80s / early 90s this I can confirm. True story (almost gay), we both wore a bow tie to his concert that I attended. He wore it to attract other guys, I wore it ’cause I bought it at the local thrift shop (Courage, My Love) for 1$. That was almost a very bad investment. Spoiler alert, still not gay survived that one.
c. Sorry for the synaptic gaffe!
A. It worked out great for weather…London and Paris for 15 days and only one day of rain… Pretty crazy, actually… It was a solid trip, I talk on last week’s podcast about a bout of food poisoning, but good fun otherwise
B. No one has actually gone right wearing a bow tie — that’s a tip for the future
a. Agreed totally on the bow tie. Also things bought for 1$ except like gatorade on sale or like half a loaf of bread. Otherwise, neither nor is good.
b. But, but, but….you didn’t mention my 2 tiers. Damn, you are a tough slave master, Fantasy Master Lothario (Do not abbreviate)!!! The ‘So many tears, my tiers’ tier is pretty cool, right?
c. Haven’t geared up for the quotes yet but shouldn’t be an issue. Will just do what I already do in the AM….read your shizz, then go to MLB dot com and watch all the highlights of each game. There are gems galore in each game, I will select the best or the easiest whatever is the easiest for me.
A. Haha, exactly
B. It’s okay — emoticon
C. Easiest? No, push yourself, Ante! (Kidding)