I’ve mentioned this before but it’s worth travailing that well-worn landscape one more time. There’s sleepers for most of you that no one in your leagues will know about because their research entails them licking their Cheetos-orangey fingers and typing into Google “ 202o fantasy baseball projections” during their actual draft. For those leagues, J.D. Davis will be a sleeper. He prolly won’t be drafted until 250th overall or later. You’ll be able to get him for a good price. In deeper or more knowledge leagues, everyone’s going to know and want J.D. Davis. Doesn’t mean you won’t get him, but you’re gonna have to pay more. For unstints, everyone (at least I hope everyone) knew Pete Alonso going into my NL-Only Tout Wars draft last year and I still was able to get him for $10.  So, what can we expect from J.D. Davis for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Last year, J.D. Davis went 65/22/57/.307/3 in 410 ABs, which is admittedly yawnstipating. Plus, when you consider the balls were dripping with Ecto Cooler juice and how he was platooned and bleh. Why does anyone want him? Oh, I don’t know, maybe because his peripherals are gorge, and will make you engorged. Go to the tailor and let out your inseam before you read any further. Back already? You just changed into sweatpants, didn’t you? Okay, that’s fine, was actually surprised you weren’t wearing sweatpants already. So, he was platooned because Mickey Callaway wasn’t the sharpest tool in the shed. He wasn’t even the sharpest tool in Shed Long. Well, Callaway’s gone, and so should the platoon. Davis has a cannon he needs to leave at the border when going to road games in Canada. He could pitch middle relief for the Mets and be better than, well, everyone except Seth Lugo. Not only did he not have discernible splits at the plate either as a righty, but he hit .305 with 14 homers vs. righties. The Mets outfield should be Conforto, Nimmo/Marisnick and Davis. If Davis needs to play 3rd because by some miracle Yoenis hasn’t retired, Davis can and McNeil can play elsewhere. Now, if you’re adept at picking up context clues, you’ll notice he hit .305 vs. righties and .307 vs. everyone, so do you think he can hit for a good average? Hint:  He won a minor league batting title in 2018. Seriously, the only strike against Davis is the Mets seemed to pull one over on the Astros in acquiring him, so he comes with some skepticism. How could the Mets fool the Astros? I don’t remember Rod Serling or Jordan Peele walking out and introducing this post, but we must be in The Twilight Zone, right? I don’t think so, but…well, at least 98% sure we’re not. Davis’s walk and strikeout rates last year were 8.4% and 21.4% respectively, and those Ks feel a tad high. With more comfort, he could get to 18%, where he was in Triple-A in 2018 when he won the PCL batting title. Granted, it’s the PCL, where it’s like hitting with aluminum bats on the moon, but still. He had a top ten contact rate for medium and hard contact, between Betts and Muncy; Davis had a top 35 average exit velocity, and, while his average 404-foot home run distance isn’t elite, it’s more than enough if the balls come back dry. The only truly concerning thing is he hits a bit too many ground balls (47%), even if he’s hitting the ball hard. Bad BABIP luck and he could slump. The encouraging sign, and why he’s a huge buy everywhere for sleepers, his fly ball rate skyrocketed (literally!) in the 2nd half last year, going from 24% to 36%. Don’t want to get people’s hopes too high, because, after all, this is the Mets, but a 36% fly ball rate coupled with his 23% HR/FB rate last year gets him to 33 HRs. In other words, Kole Calhoun with a .290 average. Call him Diamond Calhoun. For 2020, I’ll give J.D. Davis projections of 74/28/82/.288/3 in 534 ABs with a chance for more.

 
  1. The Great Knoche says:
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    Just Diamond!

    • Slappy Jack says:
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      beat me to it
      well played sir

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      HA, nice!

  2. Matty says:
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    Just got an offer in a dynasty league that I want to run by everyone. It seems like a no brainer, so now I’m wondering if someone went under the knife without my knowing or has sworn off baseball or something else unusual.
    6×6 H2H OPS/ QS. I’m the reigning champ.
    My Story ($13) and Giolito ($5) for his Bellinger ($11), Adalberto ($22), and some miscellaneous prospect scraps.
    I do love Story, and Bellinger is a buy-high after his season, but still Bellinger side, right?

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      Definitely Bellinger and Mondesi side.

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      Bellinger. Not close.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Agree with others

      • Matty says:
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        Thanks guys.
        I knew that, but it seemed so obvious that I wondered if something was amiss.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

    • batflix says:
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      I feel like everyone is slam dunking the $11 Belli over $13 Story
      without looking at the $5 Giolito vs. $22 Mondesi

      To me, it’s close enough that ‘teams needs’ would come into play

  3. bigbear says:
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    Love that you did a write up on Mr, Davis Davis. He was one that I would see occasionally last year in your write ups, check on stats, and be left with the bleh. But he was always higher on EV/hard hit stats, so you know something is there. He seems like a great #3 OFer type. Where are you guys seeing him go in the early drafts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Between 150-210 right now in NFBC, but those aren’t casual… I’d guess 215 or later in casual leagues

  4. Dave D says:
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    I was big on Davis in DCs the past couple years and was glad to see the fruit ripen last year. I was curious to see where I got him last year in my earliest DC and it was 592. I hope I get that kinda value this year that late. Its good to see you still think he has room for improvement. I like the guy.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, liking him a lot… Would love if he provided some speed, but I think he’s at worst a cheap CI or #3 OF

  5. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Just to be different than the rest of you, I don’t like” Just Diamond” at all. First he is a Mess and all Mess players seem to get hurt or have playing time issues, etc.

    Just say NO to Mets players.

    • bigbear says:
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      Haha! A man’s gotta have his standards!

      Mess players in general get faded a bit. Even deGrom!

      Throw a 20+ HR/.280 type on the other NY team with a crowded lineup and then what? See Voit and whoever the other 1B that we stood in line for last year.

    • batflix says:
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      Just Diamond is gift from god and you will like it.

  6. The Great Knoche says:
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    And you grabbed the guy who could still get Mariners closer job. Not signed yet but everything looks like Vizcaino goes Ron Seattle. I think it’s Tua or Mcgill. But you got the cheaper options covered.

    I like Morontas chances In SF.

    I’m going to end up with like 7-8 relievers, usually in these I max out at 5.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Did he sign? Kinda hoping Vizcaino goes to another team and is the closer

      Usually don’t like more than 5 RPs, but at this point the only pitchers I’m looking at that are least bit interesting are RPs and there’s so much up in the air w/ bullpen roles

      There’s someone else in San Fran I like too

      • Dave D says:
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        That reminds of your wise pick of Strickland last year in our DC. You got him late, he looked good as closer and appeared to be a steal, but then the injury bug bit him.

        Vizcaino could easily be the guy. He was off my radar but seems like a good gamble there.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          True, and I might be done with closer gambles too for this draft… I’ll tell you at end who I was looking at for closer role if he’s not taken before

    • hot corner says:
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      Reyes Moronta had labrum surgery in September and is out 9-12 months.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Yeah, there’s that too

        • The Great Knoche says:
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          Well Shit. Missed that. Oh well, most of these picks aren’t worth a shit anyways.

    • Hernan says:
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      The closer in Seattle is gonna be Carl Edwards Jr, last year was derailed by illegal delivery that he had to change in season and injuries, clearly best arm in that bullpen, in my opinion, lol, Or maybe that warren guy Albright took last round…, big arm, hopefully the giants or marlins get Romo cheap to flip him at deadline…, 2 interesting arms in SF, guess 1 is gone…

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Last person who got busted for an illegal delivery was Ryan Braun

        • Dave D says:
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          Ha! Good one, Albright.

          Most of these closer in waiting, vulture save picks, just come down to luck of opportunity. Josh James could be a lights out closer and never get the opportunity while 200 picks later I grab some bum name Wittigren and he vultures 20 SVs after Brad Hand drinks from the same Gatorade cup as Cody Allen did in late 2018.

          It’s mostly like playing roulette.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Totally, I was looking at RPs yesterday who had great stuff, and was thinking any of them could be closers with the job

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              And some with terrible stuff

              • Dave D says:
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                Ain’t that the truth!!!

        • Hernan says:
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          And Arod, “my cousin did it!!!”

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Haha, Arod’s cousin had such a strong desire to hit 600+ HRs and not Arod at all, this is true

      • Dave D says:
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        I do think of all the non-closers you’ve drafted, Ginkel has the best shot of stealing the role based on sheer performance without injury to the closet. Bradley is iffy. Ginkel’s numbers in AAA were video game-like, and he held is own in AZ down the stretch. I own him in my other DC and like is chances.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ginkel is sexy

          • Hernan says:
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            We ‘ll see, I’m betting the house on Edwin Diaz stopping giving HRs and Giles to get traded and guys like Romo/Cishek falling into saves, well, because that’s what they do…,

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, could happen, closers are just so iffy, as Edwin showed last year (and year before for good)

              • Hernan says:
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                Lol, say goodbye to the last 30 hr bat, taking him right here…., he needs a job , but power is crazy, come on Orioles!!!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  He’s been on the top of my queue for ten rounds and I can’t do it to myself

                  • Dave D says:
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                    Ha, while you were grabbing a Miller, I was busy getting my Darwinzon!

                    Now, that, was a “stuff” pick far more than results based.

                    • Hernan says:
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                      Lol, baseballs are terrified of Brad Miller, he’s a better hitter than a lot of guys with jobs, plus his sprint speed is well above average, someone has to see that, Kapler?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Oh, I thought you meant someone else who already has a job on the O’s… Brad Miller, huh? Hmm…I guess anything could happen

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, I looked at Darwinzon too as a stuff pick…

                    • Hernan says:
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                      Miller has no job as of yet, Rio Ruiz seems ok if that’s your guy, but , we’ll see…., Miller goes to Miller Park, hopefully, they have no 3B…

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Ha, yeah, Ruiz was who I thought you meant, but I’m obviously not that high on him since I still haven’t drafted him

  7. FrankGrimes says:
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    No luck yet with l’immortale…
    going have to wait for legit copy

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Damn, was waiting to hear from you — On a separate note, no one is likable on Survivor this season — they’re all terrible people

      • FrankGrimes says:
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        Ha I’m a week behind but kinda agree.
        Watchmen is beyond superb tho. Seen it yet?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Seriously amazing… Might be my favorite show of the year… Last’s night episode was so awesome…

  8. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    For 2020 only, Brian Dozier or JP Crawford. Would be a bench bat.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Neither? Crawford

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
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        No hope for a Dozier zombino type season?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Where’s he playing? If he gets 450 ABs, maybe, but where

          • Dave D says:
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            He must be in our league and drafting next

  9. Dave D says:
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    Ok, so now that Strasburg is re-siging with Nats, the pressure is really on Moreno. Drives price to near $300 million for 8 years. Im guessing 7 years with vesting option on 8th, totalling $290 million

    • Dave D says:
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      Well if Stras is 7/245, Cole will definitely exceed $300 million: 8 years, $320m.

      C’mon Artie, bust out that wallet so Gerrit can just buy all of Balboa Island.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Haha, feel like he’s gonna he a Yankee

        • Dave D says:
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          That would suck and insure Trout never gets a ring.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Just Cole and Trout get them wild card, right? Throw in a decent Heaney and Adell and they might win 95+

      • Dave D says:
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        If Moreno has any serious understanding of how to maintain his fanbase he will not be outbid. Rarely has a team needed one player so badly. He should not let this one get away. After all the sh*tty long term contracts he’s done, Id be shocked if he doesn’t match or surpass Yanks. Especially since Cole has roots there. I would find it insane if someone has their choice of making $40m living in Newport/Laguna or same living in Westchester, why anyone would choose NY, especially a native SoCal guy.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yup, but are the Angels even in the mix? Haven’t heard about them at all

          • Dave D says:
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            Ha! Who? What?

  10. J Saint says:
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    I’m new to Dynasty Leagues and this is the first year my league is set up for Dynasty. My question is, I have 1 keeper spot remaining and I have JD Davis, Nick Madrigal, Gavin Lux or Alex Kirilloff to choose from. Who would you keep and why? I have Tatis Jr., Bichette, Hiura, Gleyber and Wander Franco as MIF Keepers so I’m pretty set at MIF. I’m weaker in the OF with just Kris Bryant, Jeff McNeil, Eddie Rosario, and Michael Brantley set as keepers for a 5 OF starting lineup. JD Davis is my 5th OF. I’m going to try and move a MIF at some point for OF help but this is what I got for now.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Lux

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        But I would move MI in a trade bc you have too many

  11. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Trade Masahiro Tanaka, Aaron Civale, Spencer Howard and Kyle Hendricks for Walker Buehler.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Sure

  12. ronald says:
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    Got another offer. Dynasty league. My Paddack ($12) for David Dahl ($6) and German Marquez ($7).. Thoughts? I already have Betts, Acuan, Brian Reynolds, Victor Reyes, Byron Buxton and Sam Hilliard. Takin Dahl or Padman?

  13. Curious George says:
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    Grey! I’m at an impasse – Khris Davis has fallen to me at pick 208… but I already have ohtani in my dh slot. 40 round best ball, are you buying in on talent even though they both can’t play, or passing?

    (Or best option: are you blindly hoping Khrush plays the first ten games of the year in the outfield as a sort of repentance for what he did to fantasy owners last season)

    • LenFuego says:
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      If it is a daily moves league, you will find plenty of opportunities to get Krush in when Ohtani is on the bench the day before and after a start, and if a weekly, not sure Ohtani will get enough at bats to be worth starting. I would have no qualms about picking Krush up if that is who you like.

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