I’ve mentioned this before but it’s worth travailing that well-worn landscape one more time. There’s sleepers for most of you that no one in your leagues will know about because their research entails them licking their Cheetos-orangey fingers and typing into Google “ 202o fantasy baseball projections” during their actual draft. For those leagues, J.D. Davis will be a sleeper. He prolly won’t be drafted until 250th overall or later. You’ll be able to get him for a good price. In deeper or more knowledge leagues, everyone’s going to know and want J.D. Davis. Doesn’t mean you won’t get him, but you’re gonna have to pay more. For unstints, everyone (at least I hope everyone) knew Pete Alonso going into my NL-Only Tout Wars draft last year and I still was able to get him for $10.  So, what can we expect from J.D. Davis for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Last year, J.D. Davis went 65/22/57/.307/3 in 410 ABs, which is admittedly yawnstipating. Plus, when you consider the balls were dripping with Ecto Cooler juice and how he was platooned and bleh. Why does anyone want him? Oh, I don’t know, maybe because his peripherals are gorge, and will make you engorged. Go to the tailor and let out your inseam before you read any further. Back already? You just changed into sweatpants, didn’t you? Okay, that’s fine, was actually surprised you weren’t wearing sweatpants already. So, he was platooned because Mickey Callaway wasn’t the sharpest tool in the shed. He wasn’t even the sharpest tool in Shed Long. Well, Callaway’s gone, and so should the platoon. Davis has a cannon he needs to leave at the border when going to road games in Canada. He could pitch middle relief for the Mets and be better than, well, everyone except Seth Lugo. Not only did he not have discernible splits at the plate either as a righty, but he hit .305 with 14 homers vs. righties. The Mets outfield should be Conforto, Nimmo/Marisnick and Davis. If Davis needs to play 3rd because by some miracle Yoenis hasn’t retired, Davis can and McNeil can play elsewhere. Now, if you’re adept at picking up context clues, you’ll notice he hit .305 vs. righties and .307 vs. everyone, so do you think he can hit for a good average? Hint:  He won a minor league batting title in 2018. Seriously, the only strike against Davis is the Mets seemed to pull one over on the Astros in acquiring him, so he comes with some skepticism. How could the Mets fool the Astros? I don’t remember Rod Serling or Jordan Peele walking out and introducing this post, but we must be in The Twilight Zone, right? I don’t think so, but…well, at least 98% sure we’re not. Davis’s walk and strikeout rates last year were 8.4% and 21.4% respectively, and those Ks feel a tad high. With more comfort, he could get to 18%, where he was in Triple-A in 2018 when he won the PCL batting title. Granted, it’s the PCL, where it’s like hitting with aluminum bats on the moon, but still. He had a top ten contact rate for medium and hard contact, between Betts and Muncy; Davis had a top 35 average exit velocity, and, while his average 404-foot home run distance isn’t elite, it’s more than enough if the balls come back dry. The only truly concerning thing is he hits a bit too many ground balls (47%), even if he’s hitting the ball hard. Bad BABIP luck and he could slump. The encouraging sign, and why he’s a huge buy everywhere for sleepers, his fly ball rate skyrocketed (literally!) in the 2nd half last year, going from 24% to 36%. Don’t want to get people’s hopes too high, because, after all, this is the Mets, but a 36% fly ball rate coupled with his 23% HR/FB rate last year gets him to 33 HRs. In other words, Kole Calhoun with a .290 average. Call him Diamond Calhoun. For 2020, I’ll give J.D. Davis projections of 74/28/82/.288/3 in 534 ABs with a chance for more.

69 Comments
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Curious George
Curious George
2 years ago

Grey! I’m at an impasse – Khris Davis has fallen to me at pick 208… but I already have ohtani in my dh slot. 40 round best ball, are you buying in on talent even though they both can’t play, or passing?

(Or best option: are you blindly hoping Khrush plays the first ten games of the year in the outfield as a sort of repentance for what he did to fantasy owners last season)

LenFuego
LenFuego
Reply to  Curious George
2 years ago

If it is a daily moves league, you will find plenty of opportunities to get Krush in when Ohtani is on the bench the day before and after a start, and if a weekly, not sure Ohtani will get enough at bats to be worth starting. I would have no qualms about picking Krush up if that is who you like.

ronald
ronald
2 years ago

Got another offer. Dynasty league. My Paddack ($12) for David Dahl ($6) and German Marquez ($7).. Thoughts? I already have Betts, Acuan, Brian Reynolds, Victor Reyes, Byron Buxton and Sam Hilliard. Takin Dahl or Padman?

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
2 years ago

Trade Masahiro Tanaka, Aaron Civale, Spencer Howard and Kyle Hendricks for Walker Buehler.

J Saint
J Saint
2 years ago

I’m new to Dynasty Leagues and this is the first year my league is set up for Dynasty. My question is, I have 1 keeper spot remaining and I have JD Davis, Nick Madrigal, Gavin Lux or Alex Kirilloff to choose from. Who would you keep and why? I have Tatis Jr., Bichette, Hiura, Gleyber and Wander Franco as MIF Keepers so I’m pretty set at MIF. I’m weaker in the OF with just Kris Bryant, Jeff McNeil, Eddie Rosario, and Michael Brantley set as keepers for a 5 OF starting lineup. JD Davis is my 5th OF. I’m going to try and move a MIF at some point for OF help but this is what I got for now.

Dave D
Dave D
2 years ago

Ok, so now that Strasburg is re-siging with Nats, the pressure is really on Moreno. Drives price to near $300 million for 8 years. Im guessing 7 years with vesting option on 8th, totalling $290 million

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Dave D
2 years ago

Well if Stras is 7/245, Cole will definitely exceed $300 million: 8 years, $320m.

C’mon Artie, bust out that wallet so Gerrit can just buy all of Balboa Island.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

That would suck and insure Trout never gets a ring.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

If Moreno has any serious understanding of how to maintain his fanbase he will not be outbid. Rarely has a team needed one player so badly. He should not let this one get away. After all the sh*tty long term contracts he’s done, Id be shocked if he doesn’t match or surpass Yanks. Especially since Cole has roots there. I would find it insane if someone has their choice of making $40m living in Newport/Laguna or same living in Westchester, why anyone would choose NY, especially a native SoCal guy.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Ha! Who? What?

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
2 years ago

For 2020 only, Brian Dozier or JP Crawford. Would be a bench bat.

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

No hope for a Dozier zombino type season?

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

He must be in our league and drafting next

FrankGrimes
FrankGrimes
2 years ago

No luck yet with l’immortale…
going have to wait for legit copy

FrankGrimes
FrankGrimes
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Ha I’m a week behind but kinda agree.
Watchmen is beyond superb tho. Seen it yet?

The Great Knoche
2 years ago

And you grabbed the guy who could still get Mariners closer job. Not signed yet but everything looks like Vizcaino goes Ron Seattle. I think it’s Tua or Mcgill. But you got the cheaper options covered.

I like Morontas chances In SF.

I’m going to end up with like 7-8 relievers, usually in these I max out at 5.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

That reminds of your wise pick of Strickland last year in our DC. You got him late, he looked good as closer and appeared to be a steal, but then the injury bug bit him.

Vizcaino could easily be the guy. He was off my radar but seems like a good gamble there.

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  The Great Knoche
2 years ago

Reyes Moronta had labrum surgery in September and is out 9-12 months.

The Great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Well Shit. Missed that. Oh well, most of these picks aren’t worth a shit anyways.

Hernan
Hernan
Reply to  The Great Knoche
2 years ago

The closer in Seattle is gonna be Carl Edwards Jr, last year was derailed by illegal delivery that he had to change in season and injuries, clearly best arm in that bullpen, in my opinion, lol, Or maybe that warren guy Albright took last round…, big arm, hopefully the giants or marlins get Romo cheap to flip him at deadline…, 2 interesting arms in SF, guess 1 is gone…

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Ha! Good one, Albright.

Most of these closer in waiting, vulture save picks, just come down to luck of opportunity. Josh James could be a lights out closer and never get the opportunity while 200 picks later I grab some bum name Wittigren and he vultures 20 SVs after Brad Hand drinks from the same Gatorade cup as Cody Allen did in late 2018.

It’s mostly like playing roulette.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Ain’t that the truth!!!

Hernan
Hernan
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

And Arod, “my cousin did it!!!”

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Hernan
2 years ago

I do think of all the non-closers you’ve drafted, Ginkel has the best shot of stealing the role based on sheer performance without injury to the closet. Bradley is iffy. Ginkel’s numbers in AAA were video game-like, and he held is own in AZ down the stretch. I own him in my other DC and like is chances.

Hernan
Hernan
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

We ‘ll see, I’m betting the house on Edwin Diaz stopping giving HRs and Giles to get traded and guys like Romo/Cishek falling into saves, well, because that’s what they do…,

Hernan
Hernan
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Lol, say goodbye to the last 30 hr bat, taking him right here…., he needs a job , but power is crazy, come on Orioles!!!

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Ha, while you were grabbing a Miller, I was busy getting my Darwinzon!

Now, that, was a “stuff” pick far more than results based.

Hernan
Hernan
Reply to  Dave D
2 years ago

Lol, baseballs are terrified of Brad Miller, he’s a better hitter than a lot of guys with jobs, plus his sprint speed is well above average, someone has to see that, Kapler?

Hernan
Hernan
Reply to  Dave D
2 years ago

Miller has no job as of yet, Rio Ruiz seems ok if that’s your guy, but , we’ll see…., Miller goes to Miller Park, hopefully, they have no 3B…

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
2 years ago

Just to be different than the rest of you, I don’t like” Just Diamond” at all. First he is a Mess and all Mess players seem to get hurt or have playing time issues, etc.

Just say NO to Mets players.

bigbear
bigbear
Reply to  Malicious Phenoms
2 years ago

Haha! A man’s gotta have his standards!

Mess players in general get faded a bit. Even deGrom!

Throw a 20+ HR/.280 type on the other NY team with a crowded lineup and then what? See Voit and whoever the other 1B that we stood in line for last year.

batflix
batflix
Reply to  Malicious Phenoms
2 years ago

Just Diamond is gift from god and you will like it.

Dave D
Dave D
2 years ago

I was big on Davis in DCs the past couple years and was glad to see the fruit ripen last year. I was curious to see where I got him last year in my earliest DC and it was 592. I hope I get that kinda value this year that late. Its good to see you still think he has room for improvement. I like the guy.

bigbear
bigbear
2 years ago

Love that you did a write up on Mr, Davis Davis. He was one that I would see occasionally last year in your write ups, check on stats, and be left with the bleh. But he was always higher on EV/hard hit stats, so you know something is there. He seems like a great #3 OFer type. Where are you guys seeing him go in the early drafts?

Matty
Matty
2 years ago

Just got an offer in a dynasty league that I want to run by everyone. It seems like a no brainer, so now I’m wondering if someone went under the knife without my knowing or has sworn off baseball or something else unusual.
6×6 H2H OPS/ QS. I’m the reigning champ.
My Story ($13) and Giolito ($5) for his Bellinger ($11), Adalberto ($22), and some miscellaneous prospect scraps.
I do love Story, and Bellinger is a buy-high after his season, but still Bellinger side, right?

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Matty
2 years ago

Definitely Bellinger and Mondesi side.

The Great Knoche
Reply to  Matty
2 years ago

Bellinger. Not close.

Matty
Matty
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Thanks guys.
I knew that, but it seemed so obvious that I wondered if something was amiss.

batflix
batflix
Reply to  Matty
2 years ago

I feel like everyone is slam dunking the $11 Belli over $13 Story
without looking at the $5 Giolito vs. $22 Mondesi

To me, it’s close enough that ‘teams needs’ would come into play

The Great Knoche
2 years ago

Just Diamond!

Slappy Jack
Slappy Jack
Reply to  The Great Knoche
2 years ago

beat me to it
well played sir