This is for all the people that have come up to me over the last few weeks and asked “Yo, Ralph when’s that Top 100 droppin’ son?” And I said, “When it’s finished”. This is for y’all, one love! Oh but wait, there’s more to come too. This is simply a sweet, sweet 20% of the overall ranks. The full 500 will drop on Sunday. I want to thank all of my readers over the years for supporting me in all that I do here. These rankings posts are a lot of questioning your evaluations, and even more sleepless nights. So, I hope you enjoy. As for the Top 100, I’ve gone a little heavier in discounting pitching than in previous years, instead favoring upside bats. Why? Because pitching prospects are like reflections in side view mirrors, all much closer than they appear. Think about Shane Bieber vs. Tyler Glasnow, one guy was hyped to the max, the other was a boring strike-thrower that likely would never crack a top 250 for fantasy. Who would you rather own now? Speaking of upside, you’ll see the second half of this list is a little more upside heavy with some breakouts mixed in for good measure. What can I say? I like the young upside hitters. This exercise was a process,I began by listing nearly 700 players, then went player by player ranking each on a “would I trade this guy for this guy” trip, then I stared at the list changing ranks over and over again while I smoked like a German. That’s not a joke, this actually happened. All to whittle it down to the list below, the Top 100.
| Rank | Player | Position | Organization | Level | Age | ETA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3B | Blue Jays | AAA | 19 | 2018 |
| 2 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SS | Padres | AA | 19 | 2019 |
| 3 | Kyle Tucker | OF | Astros | MLB | 21 | 2018 |
| 4 | Victor Robles | OF | Nationals | AAA | 21 | 2018 |
| 5 | Jo Adell | OF | Angels | A+ | 19 | 2019 |
| 6 | Eloy Jimenez | OF | White Sox | AAA | 21 | 2019 |
| 7 | Bo Bichette | SS | Blue Jays | AA | 20 | 2019 |
| 8 | Nick Senzel | 2B/3B | Reds | AAA | 23 | 2019 |
| 9 | Keston Hiura | 2B/OF | Brewers | AA | 21 | 2018 |
| 10 | Royce Lewis | SS | Twins | A | 19 | 2020 |
| 11 | Taylor Trammell | OF | Reds | A+ | 20 | 2020 |
| 12 | Brendan Rodgers | 2B/SS | Rockies | AA | 21 | 2019 |
| 13 | Jesus Sanchez | OF | Rays | A+ | 20 | 2020 |
| 14 | Francisco Mejia | C | Indians | AAA | 22 | 2018 |
| 15 | Alex Kirilloff | OF | Twins | A+ | 20 | 2020 |
| 16 | Forrest Whitley | RHP | Astros | AA | 20 | 2019 |
| 17 | Carter Kieboom | SS | Nationals | AA | 20 | 2019 |
| 18 | Yordan Alvarez | 1B/OF | Astros | AAA | 21 | 2019 |
| 19 | Austin Riley | 3B | Braves | AAA | 21 | 2018 |
| 20 | Luis Robert | OF | White Sox | A+ | 20 | 2020 |
| 21 | Tyler O’Neill | OF | Cardinals | AAA | 23 | 2018 |
| 22 | Ryan McMahon | 1B/3B | Rockies | AAA | 23 | 2018 |
| 23 | Alec Bohm | 3B | Phillies | SS | 21 | 2020 |
| 24 | Jesus Luzardo | LHP | Athletics | AA | 20 | 2019 |
| 25 | Willy Adames | SS | Rays | MLB | 22 | 2018 |
| 26 | Khalil Lee | OF | Royals | AA | 20 | 2019 |
| 27 | Jonathan India | 3B | Reds | RK | 21 | 2020 |
| 28 | Luis Urias | 2B/SS | Padres | AAA | 21 | 2018 |
| 29 | Michael Kopech | RHP | White Sox | AAA | 22 | 2018 |
| 30 | Nick Madrigal | 2B | White Sox | RK | 21 | 2020 |
| 31 | Ryan Mountcastle | 3B | Orioles | AA | 21 | 2019 |
| 32 | Willie Calhoun | OF | Rangers | AAA | 23 | 2018 |
| 33 | Sixto Sanchez | RHP | Phillies | A+ | 19 | 2020 |
| 34 | Alex Reyes | RHP | Cardinals | MLB | 23 | 2019 |
| 35 | Alex Verdugo | OF | Dodgers | AAA | 22 | 2018 |
| 36 | Estevan Florial | OF | Yankees | A+ | 20 | 2020 |
| 37 | Hunter Greene | RHP | Reds | A | 18 | 2021 |
| 38 | Cristian Pache | OF | Braves | A+ | 19 | 2020 |
| 39 | Peter Alonso | 1B | Mets | AAA | 23 | 2018 |
| 40 | Franklin Barreto | 2B/SS | Athletics | AAA | 22 | 2018 |
| 41 | Brendan McKay | LHP/1B | Rays | A+ | 22 | 2020 |
| 42 | Brandon Marsh | OF | Angels | A+ | 20 | 2020 |
| 43 | Chris Paddack | RHP | Padres | AA | 22 | 2019 |
| 44 | Mike Soroka | RHP | Braves | MLB | 20 | 2019 |
| 45 | Mitch Keller | RHP | Pirates | AAA | 22 | 2018 |
| 46 | Drew Waters | OF | Braves | A | 19 | 2020 |
| 47 | Garrett Hampson | 2B/SS/OF | Rockies | AAA | 23 | 2019 |
| 48 | Casey Mize | RHP | Tigers | N/A | 21 | 2020 |
| 49 | Brent Honeywell | RHP | Rays | AAA | 23 | 2019 |
| 50 | MacKenzie Gore | LHP | Padres | A | 19 | 2021 |
| 51 | Heliot Ramos | OF | Giants | A | 18 | 2021 |
| 52 | Christin Stewart | OF | Tigers | AAA | 24 | 2018 |
| 53 | Jahmai Jones | 2B | Angels | AA | 20 | 2019 |
| 54 | Brusdar Graterol | RHP | Twins | A+ | 19 | 2020 |
| 55 | Colton Welker | 3B | Rockies | A+ | 20 | 2020 |
| 56 | Michel Baez | RHP | Padres | A+ | 22 | 2020 |
| 57 | Yusniel Diaz | OF | Dodgers | AA | 21 | 2019 |
| 58 | Jon Duplantier | RHP | Diamondbacks | AA | 24 | 2019 |
| 59 | Seuly Matias | OF | Royals | A | 19 | 2021 |
| 60 | George Valera | OF | Indians | RK | 17 | 2022 |
| 61 | Jeter Downs | SS | Reds | A | 19 | 2021 |
| 62 | Justus Sheffield | LHP | Yankees | AAA | 22 | 2019 |
| 63 | Josh Naylor | 1B | Padres | AA | 21 | 2019 |
| 64 | Trevor Larnach | OF | Twins | N/A | 21 | 2020 |
| 65 | Austin Hays | OF | Orioles | AA | 23 | 2019 |
| 66 | Nolan Gorman | 3B | Cardinals | RK | 18 | 2021 |
| 67 | Jarred Kelenic | OF | Mets | RK | 18 | 2020 |
| 68 | Jordan Groshans | SS/3B | Blue Jays | RK | 18 | 2021 |
| 69 | A.J. Puk | LHP | Athletics | AA | 23 | 2019 |
| 70 | Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | Rays | AA | 23 | 2019 |
| 71 | Blake Rutherford | OF | White Sox | A+ | 21 | 2020 |
| 72 | Cavan Biggio | 2B | Blue Jays | AA | 23 | 2019 |
| 73 | Zack Collins | C | White Sox | AA | 23 | 2019 |
| 74 | Nolan Jones | 3B | Indians | A | 20 | 2020 |
| 75 | Calvin Mitchell | OF | Pirates | A | 19 | 2021 |
| 76 | Andres Gimenez | SS | Mets | A+ | 19 | 2020 |
| 77 | Hudson Potts | 3B | Padres | A+ | 19 | 2020 |
| 78 | Isan Diaz | 2B | Marlins | AA | 22 | 2019 |
| 79 | Oneil Cruz | SS | Pirates | A | 19 | 2021 |
| 80 | Julio Pablo Martinez | OF | Rangers | SS | 22 | 2020 |
| 81 | Wander Franco | SS | Rays | RK | 17 | 2022 |
| 82 | Kyle Lewis | OF | Mariners | A+ | 22 | 2019 |
| 83 | Tirso Ornelas | OF | Padres | A | 18 | 2021 |
| 84 | Freddy Peralta | RHP | Brewers | MLB | 22 | 2018 |
| 85 | Triston McKenzie | RHP | Indians | AA | 20 | 2019 |
| 86 | Luis Alexander Basabe | OF | White Sox | A+ | 21 | 2020 |
| 87 | Leody Taveras | OF | Rangers | A+ | 19 | 2021 |
| 88 | Daulton Varsho | C | Diamondbacks | A+ | 22 | 2019 |
| 89 | Brent Rooker | OF | Twins | AA | 23 | 2019 |
| 90 | Touki Toussaint | RHP | Braves | AA | 22 | 2018 |
| 91 | Lazaro Armenteros | OF | Athletics | A | 19 | 2021 |
| 92 | Brandon Lowe | 2B/OF | Rays | AAA | 24 | 2018 |
| 93 | Matt Thaiss | 1B | Angels | AAA | 23 | 2018 |
| 94 | Nick Gordon | SS | Twins | AAA | 22 | 2018 |
| 95 | Luiz Gohara | LHP | Braves | MLB | 21 | 2018 |
| 96 | Ke’Bryan Hayes | 3B | Pirates | AA | 21 | 2019 |
| 97 | Daz Cameron | OF | Tigers | AA | 21 | 2019 |
| 98 | Ryan McKenna | OF | Orioles | AA | 21 | 2019 |
| 99 | Kevin Smith | SS/3B | Blue Jays | A+ | 22 | 2020 |
| 100 | Esteury Ruiz | 2B | Padres | A | 19 | 2021 |
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Would you trade Trea Turner for Trammell, Robert, Andres Giminez, Kyle Funkhouser 15 team keeper league
Jason Martin, PIT should be on all top 100 prospect lists .
@Coach: He would have been pre-draft, but got bumped, he’s early in the next 50. I wish he had some playing time opportunity though.
woohoo…My Prospect Bible from Prospect Jesus….cant wait for the next 400! :-)
Finally picked up Valera last week b/c i knew he was on ur top 100…good thing i did b/c wouldnt be able to get him this week
keep up the great work. My farm team thanks you!!!
@Zeus: Thanks
Hello Ralph! In a dynasty league I took over a team with good batters and no pitching. Would you trade Brendan Rodgers for Paddack and Luzardo? Thanks!
@mihai: same
Hello Ralph! In a dynasty league I took over a team with good batters and no pitching. Would you trade Brendan Rodgers for Paddack and Luzardo? Thanks!
@M: Sure, is you have two better hitting prospects than Rodgers. It’s a good trade either way, but I trust you have hitting depth.
Absolutely love this list Ralph… you’re the best in the business imo.. I’m in a complete rebuild reload mode… 5×5 Roto 12 team… forever keep 10 + 10 farm .. I am very intrigued by George Valera and want to get him before someone wises.. my farm is loaded (thanks to you):
Bichette
Trammel
Robert
Rodgers
Royce Lewis
Heliot
Baez
Seuly
Welker
Khalil Lee
In my MLB I also have Senzel, Dahl, Hampson, Teoscar, Franchy, Fowler who will count toward my 10 keepers… the question is do I drop anyone from the farm for Valera? Move one of them up as another keeper knowing they’ll play for sure next year? Trade maybe 2 or 3 for 1 to create room? On top of all this I’ll be in position to draft Bohm in our rookie draft … Thank you as always! I’ll hang up and listen
@Burn it Down: Drop Baez
Baddoo was one of your sleepers in the off-season, have you changed your mind on him or is he just outside the top 100 still? Seems like some other lists now have him in the top 100.
@shutts: His spots outside, I think he was 101 last time if memory serves. He’s like 103 or something. You’ll see in a few hours.
Always a pleasure and never a chore to read. Good stuff as always.
So my 1,2,3,4 punch in the ITL Industry mock of Tucker, Whitley, Yordan and Adell worked out just fine then :)
Bragging over and serious question time.
Does the fact jesus sanchez never walks not scare you at all? I want to get on board, but i really struggle to with the K/BB ratio to value him as high as anyone else.
@Craig Bozic: Twice is nice
Always a pleasure and never a chore to read. Good stuff as always.
So my 1,2,3,4 punch in the ITL Industry mock of Tucker, Whitley, Yordan and Adell worked out just fine then :)
Bragging over and serious question time.
Does the fact jesus sanchez never walks not scare you at all? I want to get on board, but i really struggle to with the K/BB ratio to value him as high as anyone else.
@Craig Bozic: Hahaha! Thanks brother!
Thank you as always. Would Nathaniel Lowe move Bauers to LF? What kind of slash would you project for N Lowe in 2020 assuming it takes all next year for the rays to integrate him up? Thanks!
@Tommy: I think he might, you never know how the Rays will handle it. Good problem to have.
Good stuff Ralph!
So I’m currently in first in my 10 team H2H league, up 10.5 games. Next closest team after that is 18.5 back.
I’ve got an offer for my Vlad JR (25th round) and Nomar Mazara (13th) for his Mike Trout and Jake Lamb.
This is a keep forever league, so obviously I consider Vlad JR basically my first born. Trout can’t be kept and I wouldn’t keep Lamb.
Would you give up a keep forever Vlady JR for a Trout rental?
@ERad: Nah hold off
Haha facts!
@M: Facts!
Thanks for this, Ralph. You’ve helped me secure a top-flight MiLB keeper list in my 16-team OPS league.
Question about Hampson: He’s has been creeping up lists left and right since the off season. I like the profile but am suspect playing time; he’s a Rockie, after all. Where does Hampson slot? Or is he a super-utility guy? I’ve got Goodrum right now in that super-utl role, but could easily drop for Hampson–do you think Hampson is called up late this year? Also, Yordan is on the wire right now, thinking he might be the add (dropping Goodrum).
@Drew: Playing the callup game with the Rockies is tough the good thing is I think he can hit and run no matter where he plays. He’s sturdy at each position.
LOVE Adell at #5, I’ve seen Justin Upton comps as his ceiling, is that fair or too lofty?
@MH: He’s better! LOL
After years of “can’t miss” pitching prospects just breaking my heart I agree with some of the philosophy around the rankings here (I’m looking right at you Giolito). When looking at non-fantasy lists I often discount pitching heavily and ignore pitching in the top one or two rounds.
If you had a team with 14 minors spots to fill how many would you try to allocate to pitching ideally? Assume 14 team league so fairly deep since this might change if it were 10 or 12 teams.
Thanks.
@Lougle: 3-4
Ralph – great stuff!
2 Rockies questions:
Do you see Hampson as a D.Gordon type eventually?
Could Colton Welker beat the 2020 ETA with a strong end of year finish?
@M: Hampson has more pop than that, I was really impressed with my looks at Hartford. He’s got sneaky power. He’s more of an AJ Pollock type hitter.
@Ralph Lifshitz: No way Welker beats that, it’s the Rockies brah! LOL
need help:
12 team dynasty league
25 man roster- 20 keepers
22 prospects- 17 keepers
6 x6 league 0bp and qs
I’m currently in 3rd place and did a full rebuild 3 years ago. I have the prospects to grab upgrade a position player and/or grab another pitcher. Where should I upgrade. 3B? Should I move Corey Seager if I can get Turner or Lindor back in deal?
Position Players: C, 1B,2B,3B, LF,CF,RF,UT
Wilson Ramos TB – C
Wil Myers SD – 1B,LF,RF
Matt Carpenter StL – 1B,2B,3B
Freddie Freeman Atl – 1B,3B
Javier Báez ChC – 2B,3B,SS
Gregory Polanco Pit – LF,RF
Christian Yelich Mil – LF,CF,RF
Giancarlo Stanton NYY – LF,RF
Odúbel Herrera Phi – CF
Yoán Moncada CWS – 2B
Adam Eaton Was – LF,CF,RF
Ender Inciarte Atl – CF
Corey Seager LA-SS
Willie Calhoun Tex – LF
Pitchers: (3)SP, (3)P, (2)RP
Carlos Rodón CWS – SP
Kevin Gausman Bal – SP
Blake Snell TB – SP
Noah Syndergaard NYM – SP
Walker Buehler LAD – SP,RP
Chris Sale Bos – SP
José Berríos Min – SP
Gerrit Cole Hou – SP
Tyler Mahle Cin – SP
Andrew Suárez SF – SP
Edwin Díaz Sea – RP
Felipe Vázquez Pit – RP
Prospects:
David Dahl *
Lewis Brinson *
Hunter Harvey *
Alexander Reyes *
Yoan Moncada ^
Brendan Rodgers*
Victor Robles *
Ronald Acuna *
Delvin Perez *
Juan Soto *
Taylor Trammell *
Estevan Florial *
Jo Adell *
Miguel Andujar *
Jhailyn Ortiz *
Shane Baz *
Brandon Marsh *
Colton Welker *
Akil Baddoo *
@shutts: Go after Lindor I say!
AL-only dynasty league, I’m tanking for this year, shooting for 2021. My Nelson Cruz and Rick Porcello for his Ryan Mountcastle, Brandon Marsh, Max Kepler, and Triston McKenzie. Fair?
As background, if this deal goes through, I’ll have among your top 100 prospects the following: Alex Kiriloff, Jesus Luzardo, Nick Madrigal, Mountcastle, Willie Calhoun, Franklin Barreto, Brandon Marsh, Casey Mize, and McKenzie.
Now some of those guys will no doubt crap out, and I’ll suck for the rest of this year and next, but by 2020 or ’21 I may not be bad, you think?
@American Troutfisher: Take the deal
Hi Ralph,
I got an offer of Arenado for my Mazara, Jimenez and F.Peralta. It would effectively mean replacing Mazara with Arenado in my lineup. It’s a keep forever league with 18 teams. I’m leaning towards taking it, what do you think?
Thanks Matt
@Matt: Keep Arenado and build around him.
As always, LOVE the list Ralphy! One name did jump out at me for not being included yet….Danny Jansen. IMO, he is the #1 catching prospect right now….even ahead of Mejia. The kid gets on base a ton and has some pop in that bat. He seems to have a clear cut path to an every day job soon too. Plus….he can catch! Something we still are not sure Mejia can do. Jansen is a top 50 prospect for me.
@Captain James T Kirk: Where have you read that Jansen’s catching is at that level? I’ve heard the opposite from actual scouts and people that work for the Blue jays. He’s pretty much Francisco Cervelli. He’s a top 200 guy, but I’m not sure how you put him ahead of 150+ players in the minors at the moment. I was on him earlier than anyone too following the contact lens prescription update.
TOP 50!?!?! What do you think he turns into Gary Sanchez? JT Realmuto? IMO you’re number scouting.
You’re also not giving Mejia the benefit of the doubt. His defense isn’t that bad, at all, the Indians wanted to get his bat into the lineup this year so they tried him in left and at third, and it didn’t go well. No one has screwed with Jansen or asked him to learn a new position.
If we’re going to go by numbers look at what Mejia has done the last month and a half. He’s hitting nearly .400 over 140 at bats with an OPS north of 1.000. Develop isn’t linear, and while Jansen is a nice sleeper his upside is not on par with Mejia. There’s a MUCH higher ceiling.
Sorry if this comes off as a dick comment. Trust me that I put thought into this and based my decision off a lot more than a fangraphs pages (video, track record, context etc.)
@Ralph Lifshitz:
No issues with your comment. I trust that you have put far more time into seeing these guys than I have. I have seen both play in a few games though, and I did come away very impressed with Jansen.
Obviously this is all subjective though. Only time will tell.
@Captain James T Kirk: You’re not alone, and I am impressed with Jansen, I always say 50-150 is really close. I feel you
Great list, one tiny clarification: Jahmai Jones is strictly a second baseman now (which makes his 20/20 upside even more attractive).
@BB: I’m a dumbass I knew that. Crap! I’ll fix it.
Hey Ralph, great work. Trying to figure out the best wild card to grab in an unlimited 8 player no salary keeper that could make a impact this season. Currently sitting on Romine/G Sanchez/Goldy/Dee/Rendon/Gregorious/JustDongs/Blackmon/Cruz/Castellones/ Mazara/Carpenter/Andrus/Cespedes with Nola/Thor/Paxton/Stripling/Cueto/Wood/ Darvish/Newcomb and four donkey closers. Stacked after years of building. Is anyone on the list worth dropping, even if I go no catcher to help out this year? 10 team OB league, standard h2h except we use net saves and k/bb
@The Mudkat: Romine!?!
Ralph,
Thanks for the great work that you put on to giving us GREAT INFO!!!!!
I have 12 of the top 50 on the list and narrowing it down a little more, I have 12 of the top 24 NL prospects. Building my “Dream team 2020”.
2 Fernando Tatis Jr. SS Padres AA 19 2019
6 Eloy Jimenez OF White Sox AAA 21 2019
11 Taylor Trammell OF Reds A+ 20 2020
19 Austin Riley 3B Braves AAA 21 2018
23 Alec Bohm 3B Phillies SS 21 2020
27 Jonathan India 3B Reds RK 21 2020
28 Luis Urias 2B/SS Padres AAA 21 2018
34 Alex Reyes RHP Cardinals MLB 23 2019
39 Peter Alonso 1B Mets AAA 23 2018
43 Chris Paddack RHP Padres AA 22 2019
44 Mike Soroka RHP Braves MLB 20 2019
50 MacKenzie Gore LHP Padres A 19 2021
@jose H.:
Make it 11 of the top 23 NL prospects. I forgot that Jimenez is a cross-over, a player who started on the NL and was later trade to the AL.
@jose H.: Nice! Glad you enjoyed Jose
This is an awesome list, Ralph, thanks for it! Love to see tyler o’neill getting appropriate love for what he is doing as a 22 year old in AA.
I was wondering how luis urias achieves quality fantasy value. He never stolen more than 7 bases in a full season or been on a full season pace of more than 10-12 homers. Even with a 300+ average that’s probably not a top 100 hitter, even. I own him in a dynasty and nobody seems to want him for these reasons!
@Jordan: *AAA
The quality of his contact will play up all of his skills. Crazy high floor, gold glove defense. He turned 21 a month ago and has been in AAA hitting .280/.390/.410 with a high ass walk rate. Maybe I’m wrong but whenever someone can hit, and hit that well, that young, I gamble on them.
@Ralph Lifshitz: ok, urias and jose ramirez had similar minor league profiles ignoring steals so I can see where the enthusiasm comes from. Thanks!
Great work as usual, Ralph.
I will not bore you with a question about Danny Jansen – I can wait for the 500. (I have been impressed with his consistent professional hitting all season, and thought he might make the top 100.)
But I am curious about your thinking on Austin Hays – what went into his ranking at 65? He had to be a tough ranking, what with getting off to a disappointing start and then being put on the DL with an injury.
@LenFuego: I still like Hays, didn’t want to drop him off the top 100 due to this rough season, but didn’t think he was deserving of Top 50? You want to drop him or what?
I LIKE DANNY JANSEN. I don’t value many catching prospects. I think the guys ahead of him are bigger impact bats. He’s made a top 100 before. Wow this dude has a fan club on razzball huh.
Sorry to all other Danny Jansen fans, he’s a good player, a major leaguer, but is he maybe already what he’s going to be?
@Ralph Lifshitz:
But if that’s just what he is, isn’t that like a top 5 catcher?
@Jamie Sayer: If he has the same numbers at MLB sure. I’m not sure that happens. It’s still an argument over a catcher.
@Ralph Lifshitz: Thanks, Ralph.
I am not sure what to make of Hays at this point. What I am most curious about with him is whether the ankle injury that has sidelined him for the past seven weeks was already there and impacting his performance early in the season. If it was, he might be a top 25 guy that was simply being held back by the ankle … but if not, yeah, I could see him being out of the top 100.
I did not realize another guy had commented on Jansen too. He was a last round pick for me in a deep keeper league, so it is probably mostly wishful thinking. I love the idea of snatching a good catcher out of thin air.
@LenFuego: I like Jansen a ton, a touted him last year and coming into the season, he’s ranked 146. He’s a very good player if he had 60 grade power he’d be higher. I don’t want anyone to think I’m dogging him.
Another prospect question for you-I’m in a dynasty HTH points league and have four guys for one OF slot and my UTIL slot. I’m contending this season but want to keep an eye on the future too. Out of these four players that are on my milb or mlb rosters, which holds the most value in your eyes over the ROS and over the next few years. I’ll have to drop one shortly after the AS break.
Willy Calhoun, Brinson, McMahon, or Verdugo (Willy and Brinson arent milb eligible-Mcmahon only has something like 3 games before losing his if/when he gets recalled).
Also, I could probably package one of these guys with an milb arm (mckenzie or Morejon) for Cristian Stewart-he could easily be added to that list!
@Matt: I’d just hold. Why doesn’t Willie have MiLB eligibility?
@Ralph Lifshitz:
He was moved off another guy’s milb roster to his mlb roster (so he got a rookie draft pick back) before I traded for him. League rule….
With the other question in there, which two of Calhoun, McMahon, Brinson, and Verdugo do you like over the next season and finish to this one?
@Matt: You could go McMahon there. It’s such a toss up, anyone could be better than the other.
Great list Ralph. Love Adell at 5!
So…you are hanging in there on McMahon…what’s your insight there…yeah he’s been yanked around but he hasn’t shown a thing all year. Here I am about to throw in the towel on him and off you go sticking him at 22!
@Clark Kent: Because everyone overreacts to small samples. Dude has an elite hitting ability. Go back and look at home many hitting prospects, struggle, re-adjust and hit the majors ready to roll. Development is not a straight line. It’s not his fault the organization has jerked him around.
Great work Ralph!
What are your thoughts on when Christin Stewart’s callup will be?
Who would you rather have as a stash for 2018 production Stewart or Mejia?
@Bob-Bee: I think Stewart has a clearer path to everyday at bats, even if Mejia is the better hitter.
My guess is in the next few weeks, he’s just coming back from an injury. He returned to the Toledo lineup yesterday evening.
It looks like you are quite a bit lower on McKenzie than most-and the last set of rankings. Is that just a ‘pitcher that is coming off an injury’ thing or is there a particular reason that you are down on him?
@Matt: I’m discounting pitching, I said as much in the opening. He’s also the only arm in the top 100 with an elite K rate. I still really like McKenzie. I wouldn’t say I’m down on him as much as I’ve readjusted expectations.
Who wins this trade for rest if this season
Rendon, Hamilton, trumbo for Desmond, merrifield, cruz
@Jb: Cruz side
Ralph, I can only keep so many guys. I own trammell and kiriloff. I also own Dahl. Dahl can’t stay on the field and he blew his shot earlier this year to be a regular. He is on the DL and isnt taking up an NA spot. Rockies have some old guys on the books. Do you see Dahl starting in 2019 and would you keep kiriloff or trammell over him? I want to keep the best fantasy player. Thanks
@Bob: Drop Dahl, it’s tough to do, but I wouldn’t give up the chance that Kirilloff and Trammell are special for a guy with murky PT and injury history.
Thanks so much for this! Of the 7 industry lists I’ve laid out side by side on a google sheet that I use solely for the purpose of reassuring myself that my prospects are the best prospects, so far you are officially the high man on these guys:
Kyle Tucker
Jo Adell
Jesús Sánchez
Francisco Mejia
Alex Kirilloff
Austin Riley
Tyler O’Neill
Ryan McMahon
Alec Bohm
Khalil Lee
Jonathan India
Luis Urías
Nick Madrigal
Ryan Mountcastle
Cristian Pache
Yusniel Diaz
Seuly Matias
George Valera
Jeter Downs
Trevor Larnach
Jordan Groshans
Nathaniel Lowe
Blake Rutherford
Nolan Jones
Calvin Mitchell
Hudson Potts
Isan Diaz
Oneil Cruz
Freddy Peralta
Luis Basabe
Lazaro Armenteros
Brandon Lowe
Matt Thaiss
Ke’Bryan Hayes
Daz Cameron
I think my biggest surprise was that someone actually snuck out ahead of you on Trammell!
@yankee candle factory worker: Wow this is awesome. First thing I want to say is thanks for doing this. Second, can you send me that? Seriously I need to have it. Hahaha
My thoughts: I think two factors are heavily at play. First were they all fantasy lists? Real life lists like BA, BP (not fantasy), and Fangraphs can deviate from fantasy value quickly with defensive value accounted for.
Pitching prospects, the only pitching prospect I’m higher on is in the majors, and should be over 50% owned in most 12 team formats. (He’s in the minors as part of a roster move, he’ll be back after the break). I think that speaks to my stance here. Target guys like that when they’re on the cusp of the majors and putting up good numbers. They’re easy to find.
Target hitters, especially those with power and hit. I also like upsidey guys with speed and power.
This was excellent! Thanks again. You can email me at [email protected]
@Ralph Lifshitz:
Thanks! I just sent it off to you. It’s got some cool color coding, so you can really see where and how each list diverged.
I only compared top 100s because only a few lists go as far as you’re going, and I expect the statistical noise on the back half would be deafening.
@yankee candle factory worker:
I think I was wrong on Peralta above actually. I’d purged him from the other lists because I thought for sure he’d lost prospect elgibility, and then I readded him when I put in your list. On the bright side, I also should have included Tatis above.
@yankee candle factory worker: woooooooooooooooooooooo Tatis is my guy now! I’m staking my claim like Chris Columbus
@Ralph Lifshitz:
Heh, Tatis at 2 was a shot across the bow of the Eloy consensus! (I promise not to tell If Eloy hits like Manny Ramirez for the next 10-15 years.)
What do you think of the lists that are suddenly really high on Lasagna? I feel like there’s something a bit awkward when a guy’s prospect status starts to take off after his call up. Also, lots of carbs.
@yankee candle factory worker: It’s reactionary.
@yankee candle factory worker: great idea to create a spreadsheet of all the rankings…i may have to do that myself
im curious, what 7 industry lists did you use?
At this rate. Did the following make your top 200? Who would you trust to invest in? Raylon Bannon, Zach Green & DJ Peters
@Matt Moquin: Bannon and Peters are. Green didn’t make my top 500. He’s an old slugger in Reading. I just don’t buy it. We’ll see what he does in AAA. I like Austin Listi more in that org.
But hey, Max Muncy right? These guys slip through all the time. I think I’d go Bannon of the three.
Just one note, Baretto isn’t actually in prospect status anymore
@Josh Wallace: Most dynasty leagues are 130 at bats, he has 123. I go off of that.
Any clarity for Raimel or Dahl for next year?? This year seems like such a cluster for them but I’d assume Cargo and Parra will be gone in 2019?? Why bring Raimel up for 5 abs in the last two weeks?!
@Jake: If there’s a Jesus
Thanks for the stuff Ralph,
Need some time to absorb
Best wishes,
Another Dan
@Another Dan: I pushed it out today in hopes of brightening your day after yesterday. Sucks! No joking, I was going to just wait until Sunday.
@Ralph Lifshitz:
You definitely brightened my day.
But, it’s not all doom and gloom, Wednesday was a bit of a bonus, we were not supposed to be contenders at this Tournament. Yet, the draw may never be as favourable again. And after the first half we should have been 2 or 3 up.
Would love a copy of the spreadsheet that you received.
Guys that have slipped from your top 100 that I own (in a 12 teamer) – Heredia, Wilson, Ortiz, Rosario, Arias, Lolo. Any chance that they rebound ? I have cut a couple of them already.
Best wishes and thanks,
Dan
@Another Dan: Yes, many of them will rebound, a lot are in the next 100. This draft class was deep, 8 players made this list from the draft, so it bumped a lot of deserving youngsters. Heredia is the biggest faller, the hit tool issues are too much for me.
Thinking back on past lists…
What to do about Lewis Brinson…. Is he droppable in dynasty?
@Brian: if it’s true dynasty or one where 15-20+ players are kept hell no. A 12 team keeper where you keep 8, hell yes
Hey Ralphie!
Rank these keepers for next year in 5×5 roto:
Baez in 11th
K Bryant in 10th
Snell in 17th
Correa in 15th
Paxton in 12th
Thanks!
@JohnnyBeGood: Bryant, Correa, Snell, Baez, Paxton
Hey Ralph, love your work and thanks for doing this shizz. Is Yordan Alvarez a 1B &/or OF when he comes up. I’ve seen him eligible at both on multiple sites but my main CBS league has him as OF only right now? Thanks!
@Prince george: he’s played a little First the last few seasons.
sexy list
@Lalph Rifshitz: Love you too Smada!
Nice username!
Great rankings, and I like to see the love for Isan Diaz who I think others are writing off too quickly. If Clint Frazier were prospect eligible where would he slot in here? Thanks.
@Lougle: I’d have Frazier top 20.
Yeah, Diaz always starts slow and mashes in the second half. I really believe in the skills dating back to his days at Springfield Cathedral. Lefty power, on base ability, and speed in the MI. That’s my jam!
Lots of Adell and Khalil Lee love I see!
I noticed no more Monte Harrison as he’s been pretty bad at making contact this year.
Corey Ray pushing his way back up to top 100 with his renaissance this year?
@Dalialama: Monte is around 150 and Corey Ray is around 125. Both were considered for the top 100.
BIg jump for Jeter Downs! The avg doesn’t concern you? He is 15 slots higher than Andres Giminez-is that a big separation at that point or are both of them pretty close? Been checking multiple times a day for this, a good lunch surprise today!! THANKS!
@Jake: It’s a pick’em at that point, and I love Jeter’s upside.
I hate that two of my favorite potential impact guys for 2018, Hiura and Luzardo (though the latter is a long shot) aren’t in the ESPN player pool…Bah!
@OddBall Herrera: damn you Karabel!
10 team H2H OBP league
need to drop one of my minors players
Yordan Alvarez
Adell
Miguel Sano
Gohara
Calhoun
Freddy peralta
@Big league choo: Gohara
Where is Griffith Canning ???
@Hugo: in the next 100. Pitchers…
Good stuff as always Ralph and really appreciate it. If you had to predict 3 of your Top 100 to get called up in 2018, who would they be?
@Slimcompoop: Robles, Mejia, and Riley. Christin Stewart is another one.
TINSTAAPP!
@Grey: No doubt, no f-ing doubt!
Haha
Awesome content, thank you Ralph. I know the Rockies are notoriously brutal with rookies but do you envision a scenario Brendan Rodgers is up this season? I have him as a very late round reference and would need to decide on him as a keeper prior to next year.
Thanks for all you do
@Jimmy Jack James: I would be shocked if Rodgers ends up in Colorado anytime in the next 12 months LOL
@Ralph Lifshitz: FFFFFFFFF – so would you look to move him now for some value? I’m in a 15 team roto, 5 keepers per team. I can’t imagine keeping him if he doesn’t play this season.
@Jimmy Jack James: Make a trade
@Ralph Lifshitz:
Come on Ralph…..Rodgers will get called up early next season…..he will get 5 pinch hit appearances in two months…..and then sent back down due to his “struggles”. That is how one of the worst run organizations operates!
@Captain James T Kirk: Hahahaha 100%
Great work Ralph! In a H2H weekly redraft, I have Tucker stashed on the bench. Would you use a move to stash Vlad and drop Pivetta or hold the move?
@Gotime: Ehhhh in re-draft nah
dynasty league. need to cut 2 SPs from my minors squad to send down enyel de los santos and arano. I asked about cutting one SP prospect yesterday and i believe your exact words were “FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DROP KAP!” i’m assuming you haven’t had a change of heart. so in addition to kap, who else would you cut from taylor hearn or jojo romero?
or would you drop one of graterol, luis medina, dennis santana, or shane baz instead? i know they’re either way far away or hurt but being as i’m an annual champ contender i use them mainly as trade chips anyway so I like to roster guys with big upsides to flip them down the road if i hit on them.
thanks ralph. Love the list btw, specifically the aggressive kiriloff love. i think he’s a stud
@Brian: I say you drop Jojo and her annoying bow.
This is great, thanks! I’m struggling with a decision in a league. I’m currently in first but some teams are catching up to me fast and I could use another good hitter. I’ve been offered Springer and Marco Gonzales for Adell. You think that’s a fair return? I’m worried about Springer’s depressed OPS this season.
@Dan: It’s a solid deal for sure, I’d take the Springer and Gonzales side. No salary cap right?
@Ralph Lifshitz: There is a $280 cap and to fit Springer I would have to drop either Peacock or some combination of two of Bour, Franco, Zunino
That change your thinking?
@Dan: No still take it
@Ralph Lifshitz: Thank you
This is too awesome. Thanks for all your work Ralph! For those of us in dynasty leagues, these lists (as well as sites like Dynasty Guru, Rotowire, Minorleagueball, etc) seem to so greatly exceed the traditional sources which almost operate on a 12 month lag.
Not that anyone asked, but initial thoughts!
– Love the aggressive ranks on Trammell, Mountcastle, Waters, Brusdar
– Love see Cruz make the list. Hope he stays at SS!
– Surprised to see Wander still in the 80s given his start at a aggressive promotion, would wager he climbs the most next year
– Going to be fascinating to follow Ornelas, Ruiz, Rosario (did he just miss?), Potts, and Tatis
– What does Cease have to do to get a top 100 sniff? Good stuff and stats continue to match
– Bummed Varsho got hurt, he was fascinating to track
– How does Isan DIaz still get love despite not backing up the stats?
– Don’t know who Luis Basabe is, gotta look him up!
– Love the “underrated” guys getting ranks, i.e. Lowes, Biggio, Smith, surprised you like Biggio so much
– Seems so tough to rank Gohara
Can’t wait to see more!
–
@Scott: Thanks!
Wander is 17, he’s awesome, but I don’t want to go too crazy. I actually had him at 100 for like a week. He has sooooo much time to move up.
Yeah he’s been awesome offensively. Still not off him.
Top 500 is out Sunday, Jeisson is in the 120-140 range
Cease has to be a hitter, or do it on the highest level. 22 pitchers made this list, and they’re all the highest of upside guys. I just discount pitching because there are so many non-heralded guys that out-perform the big names.
I’ve seen Biggio a dozen times, what’s not to like? IDGAF about pedigree. His approach is elite, insane walkrates, lefty power from a compact swing, he can run, and plays in the MI. What’s not to like?
Gohara sucks to rank, I think he ends up a nasty end of game reliever.
Isan Diaz is a player I’m fond of, after all these are my personal ranks. We get caught up in minor league numbers, and not the players. I like to watch the players and worry about the numbers later. He’s an on base machine with a lefty power, speed, and opportunity.
Basabe was a Top 100 guy entering 2017, part of the Sale trade with Moncada and Kopech.
Urias or Hiura, who will have a bigger impact this year?
@Curt C: Hiura!!!!!! (said like Hi-Ya)
Hey Ralph,
What do you think about trading Austin Meadows for Jesus Sanchez?
Do you think Sanchez has more long term upside?
@Justin: I think I’d hold off. It’s a toss up with upside. I’d like to see some more walks from Sanchez, and I’d like to give Meadows some time to settle into a role.
only 100? sigh
@Smokey: The 500 is coming! Now get back to the barn and pick me up a couple of blondes in their 40s.
Read the list!
@Crab jake: DO IT
We have a three player minor league roster. I have Meadows, Bichette and Forrest Whitley. Is Meadows worth holding on to or should I drop him for Keston Hiura? Is Whitley worth holding on to with a stacked rotation in front of him or should I drop him for Trammell?
@Justin Ralph: I’d drop him for Hiura. He’s not bad, didn’t make this list because he has over 130 abs.
@Ralph Lifshitz: Thanks Ralph! Also wondering if I should drop Whitley for Trammell?
@Justin Ralph: I know read the list but I am wondering if Whitley’s earlier impact makes him worth holding over Trammell?
@Justin Ralph: Whitley is hurt. He might be depends on your team and scoring.
@Ralph Lifshitz: 10 team H2H. I know he has an oblique injury, not sure how long that will keep him out. We bring up our rookies the following year for a last round pick. If Whitley will be in the rotation next year then thats very valuable as a last round pick. Between the suspension and the injury I’m not sure if we’ll see him up this year and even if he is it will likely be out of the bullpen, don’t you think?
@Justin Ralph: Of you’re more focused on that freeper next year go Whitley.
Great work Ralph. If you had to predict one guy on your list below # 50 who you think will have the biggest jump in the next year, who would it be?
@Still trust in Buck for some reason: George Valera
New to dynasty, I’m rebuilding a team without a lot current talent, aiming for year after next. Someone who’s gunning for this year wants my Nelson Cruz. I’m thinking his Royce Lewis plus what? A pitcher like Loaisiga? Or a prospect like Triston McKenzie? Should I be able to get more than Lewis + Loaisiga/McKenzie for Cruz? Thanks in advance for the advice!
@American Troutfisher: If he gives you Royce Lewis alone it’s a win, you could kick in Chris Tillman and still win that deal. Pick McKenzie.
@Ralph Lifshitz: Gotcha, thanks!
Ralph, great work as always.
Rebuilding a dynasty team, 16tm roto league, I have an offer to trade a $1 Aguilar, and get Bichette. A month ago it’s a no brainer, now I’m hesitant that Aguilar might be a top 40 player for years. Should I pull the trigger? Thanks!
@Jimmy H.: I would do it if I’m rebuilding, cash them chips!