Welcome back to the mad scramble that is September in the prospect world. The commotion is dying down like a house party with an empty keg, but there’s still ample opportunity to make a connection, to link eyes across a room, to trade smiles through the backbeat, and to gain a few standings points or add a key piece for your head-to-head playoffs. Coffee is for closers, so get yourself some caffeine, block out the Antonio Brown noise, and finish strong like Kolten Wong.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Please see our player page for Austin Hays to see projections for today, the next 7 days and rest of season as well as stats and gamelogs designed with the fantasy baseball player in mind.
Kristian Robinson (4-for-4 with a double) is slashing .307/.405/.592 with five homers in 25 games for Short-A Hillsboro. He’s one of the sexy prospects that I overlooked in the preseason and now he’s making me pay for it. Granted Robinson is only 18 years old, but his power and speed ceilings are fun to dream on. I’m not too keen on his strikeout rate (28%) but that’s probably more a reflection of his age than anything else. In the preseason, I comped him to Eloy Jimenez. That might seem crazy given he plays center and has wheels, but I think he’ll fill out and slide over to right in the long run. Here’s what else is happening around the minor leagues…Please, blog, may I have some more?
This draft is a crock pot vs. a microwave. A love sesh vs. a ‘hold the moan.’ A nature hike vs. “I’m gonna sit in the car as we drive past some mountains.” Guys and five girl readers, it’s a slow draft. This slow draft took about eighteen days, 3 hours, four minutes and–okay, only a lunatic counts seconds. Not almost 18 days of straight drafting, mind you. I don’t need to ice my clicky finger. It’s five minutes of drafting, twelve hours of waiting. It does allow you to second-guess your picks. Actually, more like triple-guess. (Who are we kidding, you quadruple-guess, fiveruple-guess, sextruple-guess, ochocinco-guess your picks.) For those not in the know, it’s a weekly, 15-team, two-catcher league that lasts for 50 rounds and there’s no waivers. Anyway, here’s my NFBC draft recap:Please, blog, may I have some more?
When I was writing up the 2019 fantasy baseball rankings in December/January — or simply Janember — I couldn’t imagine what February and March had in store — ya know, Farch. Players come out of nowhere in Spring Training to cause us to stop and take notice. Of course, I just told you to ignore Spring Training stats. This is true; Spring Training stats are a lot like my pants; they are propped up by a small sample size. However, or howmever if you’re trying to sound smart, it is important to stay on top of guys who are fighting, and winning, everyday jobs. Of course, with my Oracle third eye, I saw all of this back in Janember, but my third eye got into a spat with my first and second eye at the optometrist’s office. My first and second eye were taking the eye test and my third eye was like, “ECFYE–Yo, this shizz is way too easy,” and then my 2nd and 3rd eyes were like, “You’re like the Felicity Huffman of eyes and your cheating is going to have us incorrectly placed with better lenses than we should have.” It got ugly, and they refused to work together to type up this post for a few weeks. Finally, they all came to their senses — the sense of sight, specifically — hashed it out at a Friendly’s over a Fribble and we’re all good. Never the hoo! With Farch turning into a full-fledged March, it’s time for me to let you in on some thoughts and changes to the 2019 fantasy baseball rankings and what they could mean for your drafts:Please, blog, may I have some more?
I don’t pay much attention to Spring Training Statistics. You never know who the statistics are coming against. Baseball-Reference did, however, have an amazing tool last year that attempted to quantify the quality of opposing pitchers or batters faced during spring training games on a scale from 1-10 with 10 being MLB talent and 1-3 being high A to low A level. This tool is great, but it averages all the Plate Appearances or batters faced. You would still need a deeper dive to see if your stud prospect smacked a donger off of Chris Sale or off of your kid’s future pony league baseball coach. So what should we watch for in March when we’re starved for the crack of the bat? Ignore “best shape of their life” stories and Spring Training statistical leaderboards. Pay attention to injuries and lineup construction and position battles! Also pay attention to where Bryce Harper signs… Note that signing can instantly eliminate a position battle detailed herein (although it sounds like only NL teams are involved right now).Please, blog, may I have some more?
We’ve done it! We’ve reached the end of the fantasy baseball hitter rankings. Give yourself a big round of applause. I’d clap for you, but I have carpal tunnel from actually ranking all the hitters and writing all their blurbs and calculating all of their projections and– What exactly did you do? Oh, yeah, you read them. No wonder why your hands can still clap. Okay, let’s get to it because this post is like 5,000 words long and I wrote it with my toes. C’mon, pinkie toe, push down the shift key! Here’s Steamer’s 2019 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2019 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. All projections listed are mine and I mention where I see tiers starting and stopping. Anyway, here’s the top 100 outfielders for 2019 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Just as we start to pick up speed with the Twins, the prospect preview train comes grinding to a halt with a mediocre Orioles system. I think the horse from Ren and Stimpy said it best – no sir…I don’t like it. I skipped many a Sunday morning church service in favor of watching new episodes of R&S. I seem to be no worse for wear, except that when my kids ask me about their faith I usually dodge the question by offering to sell them some rubber nipples. With just two (questionable) Grade A prospects, this is the rubber nipple of minor league systems. I’m about to do my best to sell it.Please, blog, may I have some more?
This is for all the people that have come up to me over the last few weeks and asked “Yo, Ralph when’s that Top 100 droppin’ son?” And I said, “When it’s finished”. This is for y’all, one love! Oh but wait, there’s more to come too. This is simply a sweet, sweet 20% of the overall ranks. The full 500 will drop on Sunday. I want to thank all of my readers over the years for supporting me in all that I do here. These rankings posts are a lot of questioning your evaluations, and even more sleepless nights. So, I hope you enjoy. As for the Top 100, I’ve gone a little heavier in discounting pitching than in previous years, instead favoring upside bats. Why? Because pitching prospects are like reflections in side view mirrors, all much closer than they appear. Think about Shane Bieber vs. Tyler Glasnow, one guy was hyped to the max, the other was a boring strike-thrower that likely would never crack a top 250 for fantasy. Who would you rather own now? Speaking of upside, you’ll see the second half of this list is a little more upside heavy with some breakouts mixed in for good measure. What can I say? I like the young upside hitters. This exercise was a process,I began by listing nearly 700 players, then went player by player ranking each on a “would I trade this guy for this guy” trip, then I stared at the list changing ranks over and over again while I smoked like a German. That’s not a joke, this actually happened. All to whittle it down to the list below, the Top 100.Please, blog, may I have some more?
I only wish Madison Bumgarner fractured his hand after every single person drafted, because I knew I was never drafting him. Terrible thing to say? Perhaps, but I’m not the poor schnook who was still drafting him after I said for the last three months to not draft him. I even put him in a tier originally in the top 20 starters that said, DO NOT DRAFT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. Okay, not in that tall of a font, but the sentiment was all over that tier. I said specifically, “This is just like the above tier, and I will be avoiding it, but rather than the above guys who I actually like, just won’t draft, I do not like the guys in this tier, and would never draft them at their price. So, while I wouldn’t draft the above guys, I really wouldn’t draft these guys. Got it? Cool.” And that’s me quoting me! Of course, I can’t claim prescience that I knew he’d be hit by a comebacker, but will I anyway? Hmm… Why not?! Prescience ain’t just a word on my Word of the Day calendar that I got in a Secret Santa! So, I’ve dropped Bumgarner in the rankings, and adjusted his projections accordingly. My Fantasy Baseball War Room gets updated on the reg, as well.
This is the point where people get pissed off when I say I told you not to draft Madison Bumgarner. YOU COULDN’T HAVE KNOWN HE WOULD GET INJURED. Cool. Still said not to draft him.
— Razzball (@Razzball) March 24, 2018
Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2018 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
First thing’s first, the Top 100 is here for your consumption. Now you can stop F$#@ing asking me. Kidding..kidding. This is complied from all the research I’ve done since November. Some players have moved up, others have moved down, some stayed the same, while others have straight left the top 100. My hope with the later release was that I would be able to do my deepest dive yet, and integrate the knowledge of off-season adjustments that we get in mid-spring. Hopefully this has led to my most extensive and comprehensive list to date. I’ve provided tiers within the rankings, to give you an idea of where one value level starts, and another begins. We’re going all the way to 300 this year with the next two 100s coming over the next two weeks. It’s the post you’ve been waiting for! I hope it was worth the wait…Please, blog, may I have some more?