Well here it is the post you’ve been hollering for in the comments since November hit. That’s right ladies and gentleman, boys and girls, cats and dogs, pastrami sandwiches and tuna melts, white wall tires and low profile tires, good guys and bad guys, curved brims hats and flat billed caps, and anyone else that reads Razzball; it’s the top 100 live from my garage in suburban Massachusetts. Ahh-huh you’re being magically whisked away to a garage, with flickering lights and an awkwardly handsome gentleman with a laptop. That’s me, and on my computer is a list, it is yours to read, berate, discuss, commit to memory, burn to keep you warm. What you do with it, is really up to you I suppose. This ranking is pretty straightforward, it lists each player, their position, and a link to their team’s minor league preview. Within each preview you’ll find that players blurb. On one final note, all of these ranks take into consideration a variety of factors including ceiling, proximity, and floor. Consider this post interactive, instead of me waxing poetic after each player explaining why I rank so and so where, I leave it to you to call me to the mat and defend my rankings. Without further ado the 2016 Top 100 Prospects for Fantasy Baseball
Top 100 Prospects for Fantasy Baseball – Preseason
2016 Minor League Preview Index
Awesome work! Was excited to see this.
A couple guys I want to hear your thoughts on:
Why no Josh Hader?
Why so low on Carson Fulmer?
Outside of the top 5, which SP on the list do you think have the highest ceiling?
Thanks for the great work!
@Noam: Thanks! I’m excited to get it out there.
I love Hader but I don’t think he’s as close or has the ceiling of the arms included. He’s probably 108. Definitely was considered which means he was totally a viable candidate.
I once again like Fulmer but I’m not as high as others. I’ve seen him as high as mid 30’s. I just need to see more from him, and there’s still the risk he ends up in the bullpen. He’s not going to advance as quickly as Sale or Rodon, and I think a lot of people are just assuming he will.
Top 5 is Giolito, Urias, Matz, Berrios, and Glasnow. So the highest ceiling arm is 100% Espinoza. He could be top 10 by the end of the season once Giolito, Matz, Berrios all hit their limits.
@Noam: Thanks I’m excited to put it out!
I love Hader but I don’t think he’s there yet. He was considered and probably ranks 108 or something. Very viable player.
Fulmer is very solid but I’m not sold that he’s a frontline starter. He also gets boosted by a lot of people due to the Sale and Rodon comps. Everyone assumes he’ll fly through the higher level of the minors and I’m not sure that’s the case. He could also end up in the pen.
Highest ceiling outside the top 5 is Anderson Espinoza. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s top 5 by July with Matz, Berrios, and Giolito likely to hit their limits.
@Noam: for me, Manaea probably has the highest ceiling of the guys outside of the top-5. Big Lefty who can hit 96 consistently with a nasty slider and an ok change-up. He’s got some funk in his delivery and could be an injury risk, but the reward could be outstanding for him.
I keep hearing Manaea having “Randy Johnson” stuff, but you have him quite low at 82, is he overrated??
@Curt C: Not as much overrated as much as he’s risky. He has nasty stuff but there’s some question as to if he can stay healthy. He’s been hurt a lot and it leads me to question whether he can stay healthy enough to meet his potential.
I assume the Johnson comps are based on him being a lefty that throws a slider, but his fastball isn’t as devastating.
The most debated of all lists. The prospect top 100. Good job. Have you ever considered doing lists based on ETA? For example a top 40 of 2016/2017 and then a 2018/2019 top 40. This if course would exclude the Buxton and Matz guys who have played in the show already. Can we expect some pre mlb draft college players breakdown? I have really enjoyed the college digging in the open world format we play in. Would like to see a razzball perspective of this part of the dynasty prosopecting.
@J-FOH: Yeah the top 25 will update once a month and will be more of an ETA based list. A college break down is coming soon. Probably a month or two out.
@Ralph Lifshitz: holy crap, that’s actually better than Mike did. beau ti ful. youse got a twin brother that is really into football? hehe.
@goodfold2: No it’s tough to duplicate perfection Senor Gold Fold
@Ralph Lifshitz: tha’s why i said it would’ve had to have been a twin.
@goodfold2: Hopefully the college list comes out in March since I like to draft a college flyer every year (got BRodgers last year with my 3rd round minor league pick). Can you at least do a top 5 for college? Thanks!
I think you’re too high on Christian Arroyo!
Sorry, this comment felt obligatory.
@Yescheese: I am a big fan of Arroyo and I think he’s overlooked by a lot of prospect lists etc. He’s a potential .300 hitter with 15 homer power at the SS position and that’s valuable. He doesn’t have the speed some of others have but he has a 60 grade hit tool.
@Ralph Lifshitz:
One issue though is he might not play at SS when he comes up. Just read an article where because of how good he has looked, and due to the current setup of the Giants entirely homegrown infield having him blocked at every position, they will have him play some outfield this spring/year. This may be he quickest path to playing time for now, as he could be up later this season. Unfortunately barring an injury in the infield, at OF his numbers aren’t quite as helpful as they would be at SS. However at least when he first comes up he should still be SS eligible just because that is where he has always played. From there on though who knows…
@Manny: Or he gets dealt at some point. It’s always tough when a position move is speculated due to opportunity as opposed to actual ability to field the position. I think he’ll end up at second before he ends up in the OF.
Great work Ralph. Thanks. I’ll be able to use this in conjunction with J-FOH’s Top 500 dynasty rankings to crush my dynasty league this year.
@Rendell Locke: Any time! CRUSH IT!!!!
@Rendell Locke: I’m not doing a top 500 dynasty ranks. That got shifted to top 100 keepers. Ralph got the drIvers seat for dynasty. Sorry about that
no problem….thanks! *grabs popcorn*
I’m in a re-draft league where you must draft one minor leaguer. Took Carlos Rodon last year. Javier Baez year before. Who’s your target this year?
@Natty Boh: Follow the list take the first guy available. Not sure who’s owned but I like Benintendi a bunch. Short ETA I imagine as well
Would you trade Brinson for Kepler and Phillips or Torres? I’ve been offered a two for one for Brinson. Thanks.
@Lougle: I’d definitely want Kepler and Phillips. Huge fan of Phillips.
Great list and thanks for all your work. Love the expansion to a top 100. With that being said, I’ve got a bone to pick regarding one player. Where the hell is Raimel Tapia OF for Colorado? Prospect Mike had him as the Rockies #2 propsect ahead of both McMahon & Wall who you have at #32 & #62 respectively. He also had him as #18 overall on last year’s preseason list & #16 overall in the midseason list & yet he didn’t even sniff your list even with the expansion. Was this simply an oversight/mistake or do you have specific reasons why you don’t like him. I know pretty much everyone who ranks him always states that he is a very divisive prospect because of his batting stance/swing, but he still hits everywhere he goes.
In my opinion he is the type of player who is a much better fantasy prospect than real life prospect. A surefire .300 plus hitter in the hitter’s haven of Colorado with some power & legit speed could be huge. Propsect Mike has him with 20/20 potential as a legit .300 hitter. Seems to me like he could be Charlie Blackmon with a better average & slightly less speed. With the Rockies in the tank & likely shedding Cargo & Blackmon this or next year, I would also think he & Dahl will be starting by the end of next year. Seems like he is in the absolute perfect situation for a fantasy player. What are Prospect Mike & I missing here?
@Manny: He got moved and I forgot to slot him again. I don’t have him as high as Mike. I’ll add him in a little bit at 59 in front of Mondesi.
@Ralph Lifshitz: Fixed
@Manny: I would argue you can make the same case for Jordan Patterson. Sure he’s not a top 50 guy but i think 80-100 range is fair. As long as he’s hitting in Coors that is.
@Regan: Patterson started on the list toward the end and got cut a few times. If he takes in the early going he’ll shoot way up. Especially if there’s anyone who struggles from the Parra, Blackmon, Cargo group. Or one of Cargo or Blackmon gets traded.
Funny he’s another left handed hitting outfielder, just like the rest. Dahl too!
Not much love for the 20/20 potential of Trevor Story?
Trying to pick a SS to stash in a keeper league, looking ideally for someone who may contribute this year but either way has he best 2017 prospects. Between Story, Arcia, and Trea. Who do you like?
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: He’s at 65 that’s not bad, there are some really good players in front of him. I also think if he’s in any other organization we’re not as high on him.
As for the guy this year it’s Turner and Arcia by a wide margin. Turner is a legit rookie of the year candidate if he wins the job out of camp.
It’s Justus? Shh…Yes, it’s Justus Sheffield.
Nice list, PR!
@Grey: Shhhhh I won’t tell anyone….
@Ralph Lifshitz: He sounds like a character Tupac would have played in a Singleton bros. film…..wait…did he?
Nice list! Are you banking on the Brewers starting Arcia’s clock this year? Seems like it’s a bad move for a small market team who is working on a rebuild.
@Shill Team 6: I do think he sees some time in the bigs this year. Might be smarter to bring him up late this year. Depends how they view Villar now that Segura is gone. I think he’s ready for the bigs, at least defensively.
Keeper question please. Dynasty format, 12tm, weekly h2h, standard 5×5, keep 25 of 36 players w no restrictons. My team is a contender rt now but still young too so love that combo. Need help basically w keepers 24 & 25. I’ll post my roster so u can see setup and then I’ll post my options below, thx!! And love the list and ur prospect work, thx for the time.
C-
1b- rizzo
2b- odor
3b- machado
Ss- correa
Mi- cano
Ci- rendon
Of- upton
Of- springer
Of- polanco
Of- soler
Ut- sano
Bn- brinson, dahl, nick williams, tim anderson, mateo
P- arrieta
P- carrasco
P- kluber
P- stroman
P- taijuan
P- gausman
P- corbin
P- cody allen
Bn- giolito
So that’s how I have my keepers set rt now. Love my team and think I can contend for years now with my recent graduations. My question basically lies w keeper 24 & 25 I guess. Would u keep any of Anthony alford, realmuto, jon gray, Jeff hoffman, tolleson, Domingo santana, erasmo over cody allen or corbin? TA or mateo?? Basically I’ve waffled a bit for alford over allen but figured w being competitive now I should carry a top 12 closer like allen over alford bcuz of my current milb of’s and the ability to add alford bk or a different of prospect in the draft that starts tomorrow. Thx for any input and sorry for all the reading involved!! Lol
@The Talent Show: Keep Corbin and Allen. I’m on the fence about you keeping Tim Anderson over Alford but for this year it probably makes sense.
@Ralph Lifshitz: Yea I could see that too. If tim anderson moves to cf then I’d probably prefer alfords hit tool to andersons at this point, even w alfords smaller sample size. I actually looove both so that makes it tough. Had TA for a while so have that bond goin w him too lol. And alford was jus added late last season on ww to give an idea of how u can snag good specs on the ww throughout the year tho guys are startin to get a lil more savvy. For instance brinson, nick w and alford were all ww adds last yr instead of having to add thru previous draft. Anywhere else I can make him a case? TA prolly top candidate :( dahl? Nah lol. Thank u mucho btw
@The Talent Show: No problem! Yeah I think Alford’s ceiling is higher but he’s a year away.
Hi Guys! Need some help with keeper selection for my 12 team 6×6 roto league…Need 2 keepers out of these…thanks!!
– Chapman in 15th
– Hamilton in 16th
– Hosmer in 17th
– Darvish in 18th
@JohnnyBeGood: Chapman and Hosmer. I don’t like B-Ham that much.
No love for Jameson Taillon? I thought he might crack this list because he should be close to a call-up and has a pretty good ceiling.
@Jimmy: Yeah he was my final cut. He was ranked everywhere from 81 to 101. He’s a guy that could jump big if he comes back and stays healthy but he’s very risky. The nearly two years off the mound recovering from TJ followed by the hernia worries me. He’s 24 so the time is now, but it’s tough to rank him based on past glory when there are a ton of arms doing it the last two years.
I put all my risky injury recovery chips in the Zimmer basket.
Great question!
Another couple questions!
You’re big on Jake Thompson. Why him over M. Fulmer and B. Honeywell…
No love for Hunter Renfroe? Or Jack Flaherty?
Thanks for the responses!
@Noam: not huge on Renfroe. He started late in the list and keep getting dropped until he was eliminated.
I think Thompson idiot this year and feel he’s safer with a higher ceiling than those two. He’s close though, he’s two spots higher than Fulmer and 16 higher than Honeywell.
Flaherty is right there. I choose others ahead of him but he’s right there.
@Ralph Lifshitz:
Fair enough…do you think Jeff Hoffman could be the one who beats Coors?
@Noam: He’s good enough to still be successful there. I’m higher on Gray though.
I would like to hear your thoughts on the following excluded guys (how close were they to top 100, who do you like most/least):
Willson Contreras
Trey Mancini
Frankie Montas
Roman Quinn
Hunter Renfroe
Jacob Faria
Mike Clevinger
P.S. I would have put Josh Hader on this list, but you already commented on him above.
@Joel: Hader got nudged out. Probably by my Justus and Acevedo love. I just feel the ceiling is higher with those two.
The injury bumped Montas down. Missing a few months could derail his 2016.
Contreras is a catcher, I like him but the other bats are better. It’s also questionable if he ever becomes a full time catcher.
Mancini is meh
Roman Quinn was the last player in on the original list I wrote back in early January.
Not that high on Clevinger, he had a good 2015, but where does he fit in the rotation and if he does get there is he good enough to stay?
Probably like Faria the best of the list. He’s in the conversation for the back end. Probably would go Guerrieri first though
@Ralph Lifshitz:
I saw that Mancini hit .359 and OPS’d .981 over 326 AA at-bats. Was it a fluke, or is that league hitter-friendly? Either way, the next highest AVG in the league was .324. I noticed that Cecchini, Josh Bell, and J.P. Crawford are also in that league. I know very little about Mancini other than that he was being considered by the Orioles when Chris Davis had not yet returned…just wondering. Thanks!
@Joel: Yeah he’s not bad but he’s almost 24 and is blocked. Doesn’t walk much either. Seems like a guy who’ll have good power numbers in his prime but nothing that makes him must own.
I’m in a points league where SLG is much more valuable overall than SBs. With this in mind, who in your Top 20 or so would drop down significantly and who would move up? For example, I noticed that it seems like much of Trea Turner’s value is in his legs, so I think he would move a little lower.
Thanks!
@Jake DuBois: Yeah Arcia and Turner drop down. Reed, Judge, Benintendi, Williams, etc
What prospects would get a bump in an OBP league?
@Lougle: Reed gets a bump as does Olson. In fact Olson gets the biggest jump his OBP skill is great. Same with Benintendi and Dom Smith.
Deep list! It’s hard to pick a couple of these guys, unless I look more into needs. Talking redraft leagues here, who would you target for SAGNOF? I am holding on to Ketel Marte but do you see Jose Peraza as a better option? Sounds like will get more AB than what Grey and Rudy have home slotted for.
Thank you!
@Sport: I think Peraza’s ceiling is higher. Brandon Phillips blocking trades left and right hurt him though. Peraza has 40+ steal speed
@Ralph Lifshitz: thanks for the feedback. I am sure it takes lots of time to research these players and still have time to answer questions.
Price is quoted saying how they need to get Peraza AB. Gonna work him into SS and OF spots this spring. I hope it works out!
@Sport: It’s my pleasure it’s something I really enjoy doing
@Ralph Lifshitz: Phillips is really killing me by blocking all these trades. I already promoted Peraza to the major league roster on the assumption he would get the gig and now i’m stuck with him on my bench along with Pompey. Is it worth keeping them all year on the 6 man bench or should i just cut bait and move on. They both could be nothing but bench utility guys for a few years or forever.
@Regan: Depends how deep the league is and what’s available. If it’s like a 12 team with 3 or 4 minors I’d dump Pompey. Hold on Peraza, we’ll see what they do….or get done. I have a feeling Peraza will be seeing a significant number of looks from June on, if not earlier.
Keeper question please: Need to keep 2 of the 3 listed:
Jose Abreu
Cespedes
Schwarber
Just think Cespedes could have a chip on his shoulder this year.
Thanks for your awesome insight!
@David: Abreu is my pick
12-team, 6×6 (OPS/HLDS) KEEPER league on Yahoo!
Kluber or Cabrera*?
Caveat: team already has keepers at 1B & 3B (Goldschmidt/Arenado), so Cabrera projects at the one UTIL slot in this scenario for standard roster Y! leagues.
@RapCity hothot: Kluber. Go check out Magoo’s last post some good talking points on Kluber.
I know you said 65 is not bad, but this list is for 2016 yet you have Brendan Rodgers well ahead of Story when one is expected this season and the other not until 2018…so is that just a dynasty league thing or do you think Rodgers comes up sooner?
Also, in the middle of my Yahoo 12 team h2h keeper league (6×6 cats: r/hr/rbi/sb/obp/slg x qs/k/hr/WHIP/ERA/NSVH) slow draft (via a forum and a google doc, we’re in the 18th round).
The prospect rush started in the 16th round with Giolito. Now, everyone from the top 10 has been taken (I wanted Reed and he went the pick right before me in round 17). I have Aaron Judge as a keeper in the 24th round thanks to a rather costly (But I think worth it) trade (I sent Severino, but got an 8th round pick for my 23rd).
Anywho, there’s 24 spots on the team in total (25 if you include IR, and mine will be occupied by Pujols to start the season). I was thinking of grabbing either Story, Alex Reyes, Orlando Arcia, or Blake Snell in my last 3-4 picks if they’re available. Is it worth it to grab a 2nd (or even 3rd) prospect in this format of league where we keep around 40% of our roster from year to year but its not a true dynasty?
Here’s the team thus far (starters are C, 1b, 2b, 3b, ss, 3 of, 2 util, 5 sp, 3 rp and 6 bench spots):
C – Travis d’Arnaud (11th)
1b – Prince Fielder (6th keeper)
2b – Dee Gordon (5th keeper)
3b – Nolan Arenado (8th keeper)
ss – Francisco Lindor (20th keeper)
of – Joc Pederson (17th keeper), Kris Bryant (13th keeper), Adam Eaton (3rd)
util – Khris Davis (4th), Lucas Duda (10th)
sp – Matt Harvey (15th keeper), Jake Arrieta (2nd keeper), Taijuan Walker (7th), Masahiro Tanaka (8th), Patrick Corbin (17th)
rp – Cody Allen (9th), Francisco Rodriguez (14th)
bn – Aaron Judge (24th keeper), Delino Deshields (12th)
@Branta: Rodgers ceiling is much much higher. Though he’s years away I’m not going to ignore a better player. I think Story has speed and power but could hit .220 and strikeout a ton. I have questions about Story.
I’d take Snell to cover some of the risk with Tanaka and Corbin. Snell should be up and relevant this year. He’ll more than likely be a keeper next.
Hey thanks for the list! I have some other prospect questions if you don’t mind: what do you think of Delvin Perez, Gavin Cecchini, Willie Calhoun, Ryan Cordell, and Lazarito? They are a few guys I can add in a dynasty league and am wondering what you think of them. Thanks!
@asdfasdf: very different prospects all if them. Lazarito is the first add, he’s got huge upside. Willie Calhoun is interesting and had a big 2015 but I’d like to see more. Cecchini is a total floorbored. Perez might be the best player in the 2016 draft but a lot of that is defense.
Cordell is okay, power but the hit tool is only okay.
10 team, H2H..Which one would ya keep? C.Gomez at 22$ or G. Polanco at 17$. Thanks.
@Happyharry: Polanco
2 questions:
i know he doesnt have rookie status anymore, but what are long term prospects of Foltynewicz?
also i have been offerred a deal where i give up
D Price and C Utley
for
Salazar, conforto and shoop
do i take it?
@tyler daniels: First, take the deal!
I have no idea, I’ve spent many nights this winter wondering about Folty. Sounds like he’s headed to the pen but we’ll see.
@tyler daniels: wow, I wish someone would have offered a deal like that to me. Take it ASAP!
didn’t know you had wilkerman garcia this high, or maybe i’d have taken him over b.denton (CI weak and homers though). NYY list wasn’t out yet when i drafted. in 30 man league i went denton over wilkerman, who went 3 picks later at 2.20. went g.whitley at 1.17, guessing he’s too far off is why he missed this list?
@goodfold2: I really like Whitley in first year player drafts, he’s not ready for this list just yet.
I’m very high on Wilkerman.
@Ralph: Which MLB player would you compare judge to ? How about Gary Sanchez ?
@Anthony: Judge is a less athletic Dave Winfield, and Gary Sanchez is tough. He’s a catcher with power that probably won’t hit 280.
@Ralph Lifshitz: Considering how many professional leagues Winfield was drafted in, I would hate to see a “more athletic Dave Winfield”…
No, wait… I would LOVE to see that. Would be a special time to be alive.
@Running Frog: Bo Jackson?
interesting to see you have brinson and benintendi higher than rodgers, wouldn’t have thought that (maybe ETA there). now have 4 of the top 21 of these (and stephenson) in 16 team dynasty, able to grab both brinson and benintendi. some of the pitchers still out there too to stash when crawford comes up. just missed rodgers (and would’ve went him over at least one of these 2)
@Montezuma’s Revenge… right now: Yeah Brinson is close and Benintendi seems a lot less risky than Rodgers. I’m the HIGH GUY on Benintendi. I love him.
@Ralph Lifshitz: tools look so damn sick i almost went him over brinson, except brinson’s done it in minors, plus better power and some lists give brinson better speed too. BA really is liberal with some of their tools ratings, they gave benintendi 20 pts more in hit tool than brinson, other spots it’s just 5 more.
Top 5 na guys heading into a single season h2h league
@Doc: Top 5 on the list if Seager isn’t N/A then roll the next guy in.
@Doc: yahoo will tag mazara and some others later,they are as backassed with that as they are with any other thing. buxton also won’t get it.
In a 12 team, keep 6 with no penalties league, who would be the NA stash most likely to become a top 50 bat in 2017? The Correa/Sano type from last year that had enough playing time to establish this.
My rank: Mazara, AJ Reed, JP Crawford, someone else?
Thanks
@Fungazi: I guess judging by your comment above, you would cross off guys with ETA 2017 like Moncada also?
@Fungazi: If you can get Moncada, GET MONCADA. ETA aside he’s 4th for a reason, could be one by July 1st.
@Ralph Lifshitz: Ok cool. I had him on my radar until I heard a bunch of people commenting that there’s no chance he plays this year. Although as far as I can remember from last year’s lists, Correa had the delayed year ETA and he ended up getting called up obviously.
@Fungazi: I think if all goes well he’ll be up for roster expansion in September. Unless Peddy gets hurt and he rakes across A/AA/AAA. He’s got a lot of climbing to do to be up before Sept 1
@Fungazi: Off that list Reed, I think he, Turner, and Josh Bell have the best chance of being re-draft relevant this year and hyped up next year.
Appreciate the work! What kind of statline do you expect from alen hanson this year and his prime?
@danny almonte: this year something along the lines of .260/7/25 steals with decent 60ish runs. Prime is probably .280/15/30 with 80 runs.
Would you give me one guy off your list you would draft in a redraft who is your favorite because of a combination of his low on the radar status and best chance to get the call? Thanks!
@Kiss the Bum: Depends how you define low on the radar status. AJ Reed fits the criteria and is more or less overlooked in redraft, but has a chance of being the Astros 1st baseman from May or June on.
As for a player a little bit more off the radar, how about Jorge Lopez from the Brewers. High K, high GB guy, came up and significantly outpitched his FIP/xFIP.
@Ralph Lifshitz: thanks Ralph, I’m off to look up Lopez. It’s a 20 team league. Thanks again.
Fart sounds with the hand mouth combo or the hand arm pit long term? Asking for a friend
@J-FOH: the arm pit has the ability to preform consistently and rapidly, but the awkward delivery raises questions about its long term sustainablity. The mouth provides less consistent quality but with higher highs. It’s easy and smooth delivery that can be repeated again and again. Able to reach back and hit the upper registers when needed to.
Conclusion: Hand to mouth long term!
@Ralph Lifshitz: I think you’re right. The aging of the pits could probably effect the quality of the sound. Saggy pits get no hits
Where would Park and Maeda rank on the list?
@Jason: Playing that guessing game…. I’d probably rank Park in the late 20’s, and Maeda around the same, but a lot of that is weighted on the almost definite ETA. I’ll throw Kim in too. I’d probably rank Kim a few ticks back from their in the 30’s.
I just don’t know what to expect with Korean hitters. Kang was good but what is he relative to Park or Kim? Son had a good write up about them awhile back. They’re both worth a pick in the early teens I think. You probably won’t get them there.
As for Maeda we have a better idea and track record of it translating. I like him as a 4 or 5. Not sure I’ll get him there.
@Ralph Lifshitz: For what it’s worth, the three big Asian imports all have pretty favorable ZiPs and Steamer projections this spring. Obviously it’s hard to project them, but given the near-guaranteed playing time, I don’t know how you can’t have them right there with or at least behind Buxton and Seager (I’d also put Matz #3 not counting Maeda/Park).
Playing time is huge. Yes, sometimes talent wins out like with Correa last year, but for fantasy value I’ll take Maeda or Park over Moncada, Urias, and other super-young players.
@Jay29: That’s real aggressive, and I’m not going to rank those guys ahead of future superstars like Giolito, Moncada, and Urias. Two of those three could be in the rotation by June. Maeda doesn’t have the upside all of those guys have, he’s not Tanaka or Darvish. He’s more Iwakuma. If we’re talking dynasty leagues waiting a year for a player is small potatoes in the big scheme of things.
@Ralph Lifshitz: Oh, I thought this was a 2016 ranking, not a dynasty ranking.
@Jay29: If you’re looking for a Top 25 rookies for 2016. I’ll whip one up for Wednesday’s post.
@Ralph Lifshitz: That would be beautiful!
You’re higher on Magneuris Sierra than any analyst I have seen. I own him in two leagues so I do hope you are right, but what gives you that level of confidence in him?
@Running Frog: I’m the same with Tavares!
I feel that Sierra, has the ability to be a real leadoff threat with some decent power. I like the hit tool and speed. I’m definitely higher on him than anyone.
@Running Frog: Mike liked him a lot too, convinced me to get him in a midseason bidding deal in 30 man league last year.
hey
would you be giving up lindor to get moncada in keeper leagues?
thanks
@sliimbo: Moncada over everything pretty much
just like last year, a bunch of em not in yahoo, this year there’s 24, but some good news, none of the top 48 aren’t in yahoo, i’m pretty sure last year maybe 6 out of top 50 were missing (devers/mazara/brinson some others)
@For an Armenianless vacation come to Akron: nice!
I have Oklahoma Pitcher Alec Hansen in my 16 team dynasty league. Where will he land in your rankings when college players come out? I ask you that question to ask you this…
I lost my 3B Chris Davis to position eligibility. I’m pretty much stuck picking up Luis Valbuena from the wire until something else develops. Currently I have Albert Almora, Alec Hansen, Kevin Maitan (I can wait, Bogaerts is holding down SS for now), Sean Newcomb, and Jordan Patterson. Who would you drop to pick up Ryan McMahon?
@Rod Beck’s Mullet: Not sure I’ll have to research in more depth. Hansen will be there for sure.
I’d drop Almora.
I just posted this in 2016 War Room thread – any suggestions please post there to keep things organized (https://razzball.com/2016-fantasy-baseball-war-room/). But wanted to post it here too since I appreciate Ralph doing the rankings, and now they are integrated into the spreadsheet for draft day.
==================
I have updated my version of the War Room spreadsheet to V2. Lots of changes, including Prospect Rankings from Top 100 (Ralph Lifshitz) now sortable columns in Hitter/Pitcher in war room. Also did some data fixes for dashboard (name typos etc), and some new formatting per board suggestions here.
Haven’t worked on AL/NL version yet, but workaround mentioned by someone here is one way to handle it…will try to do that too if I get a chance. Will be updateing for V3 anyhow with JB rankings.
Download here: https://docs.google.com/uc?authuser=0&id=0ByY40Vu3ttWQellubVZNYzRHUUE&export=download
@Jimmy Bond: Thanks!
What does redraft leagues mean ? Seriously, don’t know. I ask, because I’m thinking about taking Reed in the 23d round of Draft Champions at NFBC, if he’s available when I wake up in the a.m. You said something about him not being high on redrafts.
Chris Carter is also available, and I know he has a job, and will be playing for the Brewers.
Olivera and Adams are also available, but already having Abreu, Hosmer, and Bryant, my corners and c.i. are set, and am thinking that Reed could end up being the best util. bat for a good portion of the season.
What do you think ?
Also I’ll pick in round 24, 9 picks later (I drafted from #11), and Snell and Glasnow are still available, as is Tomlin, Velasquez, Paxton, Roark, Jungmann, and Happ.
Would love to go balls to the wall w/ Reed/Snell, if they were both available.
Your thoughts ?
Sorry for the long post, but would love to see your response when I wake up in 7 hours.
Thanks much.
@True and Correct: Yeah I like the idea of Reed and Snell for sure. Would take Glasnow too.
Redraft means a league where you pick a new team next year. So it’s a fancy way of saying your typical non-keeper league
If both Glasnow and Snell are available, who do you think will produce more in 2016 in the bigs ?
Would you draft them over Velasquez, Tomlin, Paxton, Roark, Jungmann, and Happ ?
Same question for Reed v. Carter, Olivera, and Adams.
Off to sleep.
@True and Correct: Late in the draft, Velasquez and Carter for power. Redraft means start from scratch next year or this year as well.
@True and Correct: Yes Snell first then Glasnow.
I would take Reed over any of those guys, especially with the CI depth you have
isan diaz isn’t showing up in Mike’s MIL post, was he traded somewhat recently, it’d be odd if he made your top 100 but not mentioned at all in Mike’s.
@Crapshoot Kershaw: He’s in the Arizona post he was part of the Segura deal. So click on the d-backs
Great article. Keeper question. H2H 8 team point based Dynasty league and each team keeps 15.
Scoring is:
1B (1pt) INNINGS PITCHED = 1pt QUALITY START 3pt
2B (2pt) WINS = 7pt
3B (3pt) SAVE = 3pt
HR (6pt) K = 1.5pt
WALK (1pt) EARNED RUN (-1pt)
RBI (1.5pt) LOSS (-3pt)
RUN (1pt)
SB (1pt)
I need to cut 4 from the following. Any thoughts? Thanks.
Miggy, Rendon, Machado, Cargo, Harper, Pollock, Sano, Encarnacion, Hosmer, Baez, Heyward, Moncada, Teheran, Taijuan Walker, Lester, Giolito, Kluber, Richards, Corbin.
@Mike Schwab: Baez, Teheran, Rendon, and Corbin
Story and A-Jax so low? What’s happened to them.
@Swfcdan: Story just isn’t a top 50 guy for me. There’s a lot of questions about his ability to hit everyday in the big leagues. The power/speed combo is nice, and he’s still in the middle of the top 100. I just don’t think he’s a future star as much as a good fantasy MI.
Jackson had a rough 2015, so he’s dropped a lot. He hit .208 across two levels, struck out 30% of the time, hit 8 homers in 300+ PA and got caught on the bases more than he stole. It was a rough year, his placement on this list is a testament of how talented he could be.
Any possible way you can host an Excel file of this? Copy/paste doesn’t seems to work no matter what.
@Lipson: It’s uploaded in the war room and I can share it in google sheets.
Here’s the link : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t7ReoWWfuKdG84FW-mf1HYjOFQzGE7INoq8p3o2hZVs/edit?usp=sharing
@Ralph Lifshitz: Thanks!!
@Lipson:
If you have Chrome, you really should get the ColumnCopy extension if you don’t have it already. Makes copying and pasting these things SO much easier. Seriously cannot express how much I love it.
https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/columncopy/lapbbfoohlcmlbdaakldmmallcbcbpjb?hl=en
Great list! A few bold calls, which I like.
Dynasty Q – right now I’m planning on keeping Snell, Robles, Story, Hanson, Wall, Olson, Tapia and Verdugo as my 8 minor leaguers. The league is a 12-team 10×10, so speedsters are a bit devalued.
I’ve also got Cody Reed, Franklyn Kilome and Braden Shipley on my roster before keepers are declared, and have been offered Peraza for Reed straight up.
I know you’re pretty high on Reed (as am I), but pull the trigger? And if so, who would you drop? One of those 8 I listed above, or one of my final keepers? My bottom 5 would be Ozuna, Heaney, Shields, Andrew Miller, Britton (the league counts net saves + holds) and Swihart (it’s a 2-catcher league).
Right now I’m thinking Shields, as he’d likely be around in the 2nd or 3rd round if I wanted to get him back, and I’d be able to plug in one of Story/Hanson/Peraza into my SS slot and not reach for the pu-pu platter available.
@thorbs: Looks like Peraza is going to get regular at bats, but with the speed being undervalued in the scoring it worries me. If you feel it’s better than anything you could grab in the draft than make the deal, trading arms for bats is usually always good business.
I’d drop Shields or Swihart. It’s two catcher so his upside might be worth the keeper spot, even if it means letting the more valuable asset for 2016 go free.
@Ralph Lifshitz: The first round is almost exclusively the top talent in the 2015 draft, and then Rounds 2/3 are usually guys filling holes on their team/taking top relievers/taking flyers on prospects.
Highlights from each round last year include:
2: Kang, Salazar
3: Liriano, A. Miller
4. Hammel, Britton, Giles
5. Raisel Iglesias
So, I think Peraza would go in the second or maybe late 1st, Shields and Swihart in the 2nd/3rd.
I’m keeping Kluber, Keuchel, Greinke, Hamels, Heaney, Miller, and Britton, so my arms are looking pretty strong, and Snell could be up this year as well. I’ve also got Kinsler/Odor at 2B/MI, so, I’m thinking Peraza could be an above-average replacement if Kinsler isn’t worth keeping in 2017.
So, trade for Peraza, drop Shields, and maybe try to pick up Big Game James in the 2nd round if he’s still there. I don’t think I could rationalize keeping Reed/Kilome/Shipley over Shields, but Peraza could be a tasty plug-n-play as the league also has daily transactions.
Buxton over Seager HAHAHA
Get Real Dude. I understand wanting to be different from other prospect lists, but that is just comedy.
Defensive centerfielder who can’t hit OR a short stop that hits 3rd in a potent line up. Honestly, it is not even close.
@Keeganballz: It’s almost like you have no idea what you’re talking about.
Seriously, it’s not being different Buxton is a better fantasy prospect than Seager. one guy is a 5 tool player that has best player in the game 30/30 upside or a guy who could literally have the same stat line as Neil Walker in 2016.
Calling Buxton a defensive centerfielder is “I wear a hockey helmet to bed” dumb.
Nice try troll!
@Ralph Lifshitz: This made my day. By this logic Mike Trout can’t hit since he batted .220 in his 1st taste of the majors and of course we would all take Puig over Trout since he did hit in his 1st year. So short sighted.
@Slim: Yeah and it’s the fact either choice is reasonable. It’s not like I’m on an island with Buxton. If you like Seager better, makes total sense, but don’t come and tell me I’m going out of my way to be different. I have too much going on to waste time being controversial.
@Ralph Lifshitz: if that guy read other prospect lists he’d see some others also have buxton ahead here. good call not pulling punches on the troll too, Dr. Lipshitz don’t shiv with dumbasses.
Ralph- Thanks. Just to be on the same page, I was talking this year’s draft, no redraft. The dude in front of me took Shawn Kelley, so Reed and Snell are both available in the 23d. Leaning toward Reed, and hoping that Snell and/or Glasnow will be available for my next pick in round 24.
Not really a dolt, and I guess I shouldn’t even have mentioned re-draft.
@True and Correct: Cool I like that approach, let’s hope they fall.
@Ralph Lifshitz: Ralph, I get hung up on playg time, so, of course, I playingy would gravitate to positional players and starters who are starting the year in the rotation. In Draft Champions, there is no waiver wire, so I guess I should be thinking the whole year as the big picture, and not april/may.
I really enjoyed your top 100, and respect your opinion on “prospects” and their likelihood of playing time this year.
On that note, what do you think is the “prospect” (pun intended) of J.P. Crawford coming to the majors before June ? I’ve read totally different “guesses” on his ETA.
Any other prospects you feel will be coming up in the 1st half of the season.
I like Margot and Brinson and Mazara, but can’t see them coming up before the all-star break.
Thanks again.
@True and Correct: I don’t think Crawford will be up that quickly. I’d go after guys like the ones mentioned.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Margot is up earlier than expected. Matz, Berrios and Turner will all be factors this year. Same with Kepler, Nick Williams, and Bell.
What do you think is a best case scenario for Moncada? I know he is at 4 but no way he is up this year, right?
@HypnoAce: I think he’ll be up in September. For him to be up anytime before that a bunch of stuff would have to happen, like a rash of injuries on the MLb roster, and he’d have to absolutely demolish every level. I still think we see him when roster expand and then for half the season in 2017.
Is Tapia lower down the list because of proximity to majors or are you not a big fan?
@Jon: I like Tapia, but I think he’s risky people are very split on him. I am a fan, if he hits again this year he’s easy top 20 by the end of the season.
At what point in a 14 team h2h points startup dynasty, round-wise, would you shift focus from filling in your starting team to filling in prospect spots? We have 8 prospect spots and I’ve heard generally around Round 12-15 is where it typically maximizes your value for this & future years?
@Clint: I would try and fill most of my roster first. It’s all about feel with a draft. If prospects are going early you maybe shift your approach. I’d probably target more close to the majors guys with reaches like a Giolito, Reed, Urias etc with an 8 player minors.
Needed a little help from Team Razzball here.
4 keepers allowed
12 Team Roto
I love keeping he kids coming up because they always turn out to be great trade bait in needed. I also hate giving up early draft pics.
Ok….here we go…
C. Davis (3rd Round)
G. Polanco (6th Round)
G. Cole (8th Round)
B Buxton (17th Round)
Mazzara (28th Round)
Aj Reed (28th Round)
I am leaning towards:
Cole
Polanco
Buxton
AJ Reed
Would I be keeping Reed over Davis?
Would anyone keep Mazzara over COLE?
@Peter: I think your lean is spot on
would you do Polanco (6th Round) Cole (8th Round) or Mazarra (28th Rd)
@Peter: Cole
not sure what it is called, or what you will call it,
but is there a newly available prospects ranking? full of internationals and draft picks for the dynasty owner?
@tyler daniels: Yup Mike put one out a few months ago.
https://razzball.com/new-blood-top-25-dynasty-league-signees/
3 of my 5 keepers are in your top 6(others Marte and J-FER)
Means im probably in rebuilding, but could come to fruition nicely over the next couple years.
Great list, one of the best parts of baseball is the up and coming talent pool that other sports don’t really have aside from hockey.
@ChefBoyRG54: Totally agree, love the minors
This is a fun list. And I own 12 (mazara) and 36 (kepler). I am in a competing window. Am I nuts to trade those 2 for danny salazar?
@Alan: Yeah if you need K’s and can win.
Damn fine list Ralph…thank you!
I’m in a Dynasty League (6×6 rotisserie) where we keep 25 players and 5 Minor Leaguers. For our 25 keepers…they are mostly Major Leaguers, but I’ll usually keep 2 or 3 Minor Leaguers there as well. I was hoping to get your insight on some of these guys before making my final cuts.
What order would you place the following players:
Blake Snell
Dustin Dahl
Jesse Winker
Josh Bell
Jeff Hoffman
Hunter Renfroe
Matt Olson
Steven Moya
Micah Johnson
Albert Almora
Alcantara (spelling?…MI Cubs)
Richie Schaefer (doesn’t qualify, but interested where he lies with the rest of these guys)
Thanks again Ralph (and also thanks for calling out the douche that was acting like Buxton in front of Seager was some kind of anomaly).
@scooter jacobson: Snell, Winker, Dahl, Bell, Olson, Hoffman, Renfroe, Schaefer, Almora, Johnson, Alcantara, and Moya.
Not a problem! Did I contradict my rankings?
does this look ok. 16 team roto dynasty with total bases, OBP over AVG and net steals over steals, net saves + holds, QS over wins, and K/BB added. i got an offer of upton
for my
tapia + wheeler + lind + mondesi (all of those i can’t keep anyway, so offered up ALL of them with 1 or more keepers) + a.miller (or giles) + brinson. here’s roster (of 25 keepers):
C perez
1B rizzo
2B kipnis
SS none yet
3B bryant
LF d.peralta
CF ellsbury
RF JD mart
Util delino (CF/LF)
util none
NA benintendi/brinson/dahl/jp crawford
SP liriano/cole/heaney/fiers/ryu/buchholes/pineda
RP a.miller/watson/giles/britton/romo
NA stephenson
Effectively i’m getting Upton for Miller or Giles + Brinson. This gets me value for one of my CF super prospects. A bad team gets depth and doesn’t have to worry about drafting all those guys. This would also give me one draft pick (at 3rd to last, damn front loading, but could still use it to stash one last prospect or grab best RP, SP or same SS i’d get off waivers anyway.)
I also could get maybe Buxton or Lindor in this.
@Montezuma’s Revenge… right now: we start 6 RP and have 1500 innings max.
@Montezuma’s Revenge… right now: when i say also, i mean rather than upton, not in addition.
@Montezuma’s Revenge… right now: I say take the deal, you’re only giving up Miller and Brinson and I’m okay with that.
@Ralph Lifshitz: when asking him if i could get wheeler back as i originally intended to trade all non keepers and 1 keeper to upgrade somewhere he offered to keep wheeler in it if i got back E-Rod. so i got E-Rod too. this now likely gets me near 1500 projected innings before any injuries.
@Montezuma’s Revenge… right now: nevermind that, he let me just keep wheeler, turns out he might not have had room to take on 5 extra players anyway.
Where would Daniel Norris fit on this list. He is still under inning limits for most minor league drafts. TY
@Dave: I think somewhere in the 11-20 range. I’m going to give last season a bit of a pass as he was dealing with some things. He could have as much impact this year as anyone on the list, and certainly if he can rediscover some of that K potential from a few years ago while keeping the walks in check we’re talking a stud type starter.
mark appel? bubba, stars do fall
@trevoer: Yeah fell hard, not players I’m interested in having anything to do with. I guess Appel still has upside but Bubba is pretty blah
Can you guys add another column to this that includes their ETA?
@Prospectus: When I update it I will, for now you can click on the team previews in the far right column and read each players blurb which includes the ETA’s Mike and I project.
When do you expect Giolito to be called up. Would be be worth using as a keeper for this year for $5 (+5 for next year). Not sure if he would get drafted. Likely would and not sure how much he may go for. Few guys in my league really like prospects.
@Jaret: I think he could be up at latest June. Roark or Cole or someone would have to have an amazing camp and first few months to hold him off. He’s future ace caliber and Washington is going to need him if they want to pass the Mets this season.
In a dynasty draft, mlb squad is in good condition and minors are pretty healthy too so need doesn’t totally apply tho would probably lean pitcher help side if anything. 12tm keep 25 of 36 lge, 5×5 h2h. Would you draft Ian Happ or Frances Martes? Thx
@Came to drop bombs: Martes, he’s the better prospect anyway.
And Jack Flaherty is where?
@John Baker: Missed the cut
This list is….awesome!!! Thankful I found this site back in the day. Rest of the rankings websites out there need to stay in their lane. You guys crush it every year!! Won my league last year with a good mix of young talent built up through previous drafts and trades (and thanks to some guidance from you guys obviously). Would like to draft an OF and SP for the future. Without concern for immediate impact/worrying about a call up date, who are your top 3 prospects at those two positions? Everyone in your top ten, plus Judge is already rostered, except for Reed. I only have a need/opening for 1 OF, 2nd, and C, and don’t mind waiting it out for a big time future stud.
H2H points league 18 keepers, going up to 20 next season, no penalty.
My Keepers for this year:
Hitters – Rizzo, Machado, Correa, Harper, Springer, C. Seager, Bryant
Pitchers – Kershaw, Gerrit Cole, King Felix, JoFer, Y. Ventura, Taijuan Walker, Joe Ross, Giolito
3 spots left for B. Hamilton, Maikel Franco (wouldn’t even be able to play him with Bryant and Seager in my dh spots and Machado and Correa at 3rd and SS. So he’d prob be trade bait), Teheran, Alex Wood, Daniel Norris, Zack Wheeler, or Glasnow
Might try to package up some of those above possible keepers, and maybe even Felix, and make a trade or two. Does Norris or Glasnow have a higher ceiling than say Syndergaard or Salazar? Or would you change any of my current selections?
Thanks
@FDJC38: Syndergaard and Glasnow have the higher ceilings. Answered the Prospect Q on the other post.
Amazing list and the responses to some questions helped me a lot as well – thank you!
I’m having trouble ranking players based on position needs, while not being downright dumb about it. I’m in a 16 team dynasty league and my outfield spots are stocked fairly well (MBetts, SMarte, NCruz, APollock, BHamilton) and my middle and corner infield have a lot less depth. Pitching seems much easier to fill, so I’d like to use my prospect slots on potential impact bats – just am having difficulty with whether or not to bump the value of non-outfield guys, and if so, how much?
For example, here are what I consider the best names available: BZimmer, ABenintendi, RDevers, RMcMahon, BRodgers, DDahl, BSnell, VRobles, FBarreto, JBell, NWilliams and BPhillips. With those names in mind (and I am probably highest on Robles over everyone to be honest), how crazy would I be to nix out the OFers just because I feel comfortable fielding those slots without them? Does the presence of a utility spot make me an idiot for even considering doing so? And finally, if I were to nix OF, which of the non-OF prospects I mentioned have the highest potential based on the quickest route to the majors? Thanks in advance. I couldn’t live without yinz!
@PITTSBURGH: Devers, Rodgers, McMahon, and Bell, probably be happy to have any of them over the OFs with your current setup. Barreto is a SS at the moment but looks destined for the OF
@Ralph Lifshitz: Thanks! Went with Rodgers and will hope for the best. Am I crazy for looking Robles so much? Hoping he’s overlooked by a few teams in round 2 so I can snag him.
So Dansby Swanson was removed from the DBacks minor league preview but not added to the Braves one?
@Branta: I believe one was written before the trade and one after. Sort of flew under my radar to be honest I didn’t write either one.
Hey, love the list
Who are a few guys rated in the 80-150 range that could jump into top 20-50 consideration for next years list? Looking for upside. Around 5-10 guys.
Thanks in advance!
Follow up question to the one above
What are your thoughts on the following players:
Connor Greene, TOR, SP
Ke’Bryan Hayes, PIT, 3B
Oscar de la Cruz, ChC, SP
and how good is Rowdy Tellez?
Who would you rather have in a keeper league
Lucas Giolito
Franklin Barreto
or
Daniel Norris
Robert Stephenson
Rafael Devers
@Ky guy: I like the Giolito and Barreto side. You get the extra player but I really like Barreto and Giolito.