The Rangers have one of the deepest systems in the majors and it’s packed with upside for fantasy. Even after trading away three good prospects in the Cole Hamels deal, it’s still a beast. The appeal for our game is the type of player – toolsy, power bats, power arms…all good stuff. One of the pleasant surprises on the MLB roster was Delino Deshields, who the Rangers selected as a rule 5 pick from the Astros organization. If you’re like me, you threw Deshields on your farm for some depth and by the end of the season it was all like ‘whoa this is a solid player right here’ and then Grey’s writing a sleeper post on him and next thing you know he’s got an ADP in the teens. Grey is influential like that. Coincidentally, the Rangers also lost Odubel Herrera in the rule 5 draft to Philly, and that young man had a hell of a season too. Just goes to show that this whole prospect game isn’t always easy to peg, and you have to stay on your toes and roll with it. Back over to the Texas farm now, which features three top 50 fantasy prospects.
2015 Graduates
Delino Deshields | Chi Chi Gonzalez | Keone Kela | Anthony Ranaudo | Hanser Alberto | Ryan Rua
Tier 1: Specs On The Beach
Potential stars. Consensus T100 prospects with premium fantasy ceilings.
Joey Gallo, 3B | Age: 22 | ETA: 2016 | 2015 Level: AA/AAA/MLB
2015 Stats: 374 PA, .240/.342/.520, 23 HR, 2 SB, 14% BB, 37% K
I believe the term is “donkey”? Gallo’s raw power might be the best in the minors, but his strikeout rate is enough to keep him nestled in the back half of the top ten instead of among the super elites. It’s still a profile to get excited about in fantasy leagues though. Maybe Chris Davis-type seasons are in his future, and that kind of power is hard to come by. He’s close to the bigs, although his defensive home in the short term is a bit up in the air with both third base and outfield possibilities.
Nomar Mazara, OF | Age: 20 | ETA: 2016 | 2015 Level: AA/AAA
2015 Stats: 558 PA, .296/.366/.443, 14 HR, 2 SB, 9% BB, 18% K
Mazara did a lot to cement himself at the top of prospect lists in 2015. Not only did he tear through Double-A as a 20-year-old, he also hit .358 in 88 plate appearances at Triple-A. That’s where he’ll most likely start the 2016 season, but he should be in line for a call to the majors at some point in the second half. It’s a pretty typical right field profile – more power-driven than speed-driven. The ceiling is .280/30 and that’ll play in every format.
Lewis Brinson, OF | Age: 21 | ETA: 2017 | 2015 Level: A+/AA/AAA
2015 Stats: 456 PA, .332/.403/.601, 20 HR, 18 SB, 10% BB, 21% K
I’m not usually the type to blow my own horn (if I could I’d never leave my house) but in Brinson’s case I’ve always liked him. I put him 33rd on my 2015 preseason list despite some concerns about his approach. While some of those question marks are still there, he’s a toolshed with the kind of upside we target in fantasy, which is what drew me to him in the first place. With some more seasoning in the upper minors, Brinson could vault himself into the top half of some top 50 lists if he’s not there already. It’s a power/speed profile with 20/30 upside.
Tier 2: Floorboreds
Lacking the “star” upside. They might have some warts, but their ETAs are on the horizon.
Dillon Tate, RHP | Age: 21 | ETA: 2017 | 2015 Level: A(ss)/A
2015 Stats: 9 IP, 1.00 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 8.0 K/9
Tate is one of the more exciting arms from the 2015 draft, with a fastball and slider that both grade as plus or better pitches. He should move relatively quickly, and it would be easy to see him following the path of some other first-round talents who got their feet wet in the bullpen before transitioning to the rotation. We’ll have a better idea once he gets some upper-level innings under his belt in 2016, but for now it looks like a #2 starter ceiling.
Ryan Cordell, SS/3B/OF | Age: 23 | ETA: 2017 | 2015 Level: A+/AA
2015 Stats: 561 PA, .270/.327/.444, 18 HR, 20 SB, 7% BB, 22% K
The Rangers are one of those teams like the Cubs and the Astros, with quality prospects converging on similar positions. Cordell coasted through High-A, but hit just .217 in his first 56-game taste of Double-A. I’d expect him to adjust and his versatility should help him find his way to the bigs. The tools aren’t up there with Brinson and Mazara, but 15/20 upside on the left side of the infield is solid.
Patrick Kivlehan, CI/OF | Age: 26 | ETA: 2016 | 2015 Level: AAA
2015 Stats: 518 PA, .256/.313/.453, 22 HR, 14 SB, 7% BB, 22% K
Kivlehan came over from the Mariners and at 26 he’s a little long in the tooth for prospect lists. He’d be a solid choice for a competitive dynasty team looking to use their farm for depth. In real life, he’ll likely fill a utility role thanks to his power and ability to play just about any corner infield or corner outfield position. Solid Triple-A numbers and a hint of speed mean he could do some damage with an opportunity. Give him a full season of at bats and he could flirt with 20 homers. Honestly I was a little surprised he was the PTBNL in the Martin deal.
Others: Andy Ibanez, Luke Jackson, Andrew Faulkner, Jose Leclerc, Drew Robinson
Tier 3: Long Shot Lolitas
Sexy ceilings, but these youngsters also come with risks and distant ETAs.
Eric Jenkins, OF | Age: 18 | ETA: 2019 | 2015 Level: Rk/A
2015 Stats: 224 PA, .262/.348/.349, 0 HR, 28 SB, 11% BB, 27% K
Jenkins is the classic plus-speed center field profile, but at 18 years old there’s room for some pop to develop as well. The ceiling is a .275/15/30 type but that’s still a long ways off. The Rangers selected Jenkins 45th overall in the 2015 draft, but in fantasy first-year player drafts I could see him going in the 30s thanks to his offensive upside. He struck out a bunch, but also showed he could take a walk, so there’s a lot to like.
Yeyson Yrizarri, SS | Age: 18 | ETA: 2019 | 2015 Level: A(ss)/AAA
2015 Stats: 291 PA, .266/.291/.342, 2 HR, 8 SB, 2% BB, 18% K
Part of me wants these guys to make it just so I can hear Grey and JB pronounce their names on the podcast. This one I’m clueless on, but I bet it would win you some points in Palabras Con Amigos. Anythehoo, Yrizarri has the offensive skills to hit for power and steal some bags, with the defensive chops and arm to stick on the left side of the infield…maybe even, dare I say, shortstop. In the large majority of formats I’d bet he’s still available and you can take a flyer on him if you have a deep enough farm. Otherwise, it’s still a little early to get excited.
Ti’Quan Forbes, 3B | Age: 19 | ETA: 2018 | 2015 Level: A(ss)
2015 Stats: 236 PA, .263/.315/.323, 0 HR, 2 SB, 6% BB, 23% K
Forbes was a second round pick for the Rangers two years ago, and it looks like he’ll chip in a little power and speed once he’s ready. The wait’s a bit too long and the ceiling isn’t really high enough to sweat him yet, and if he can’t stick in the infield it’ll hurt his value along the way. Despite that, the really deep dynasty league owners will want to roster him for his projectability, while most shallow leaguers can pass and scoop him later.
Travis Demeritte, MI | Age: 21 | ETA: 2018 | 2015 Level: A(ss)/A
2015 Stats: 220 PA, .232/.332/.384, 5 HR, 10 SB, 12% BB, 36% K
Demeritte reminds me of a poor man’s Baez now that he mans the keystone. It’s big raw power, which would be fantastic for his fantasy value in the middle infield, but there’s such an aggressive approach and propensity to strike out that it dims the whole package. He also lost some development time to a PED suspension and it’s one of those profiles that would take some time to cook in the minors anyway. He’s a solid – albeit risky – upside play in deep formats just in case things click.
Jairo Beras, OF | Age: 21 | ETA: 2018 | 2015 Level: A
2015 Stats: 350 PA, .291/.332/.440, 9 HR, 9 SB, 5% BB, 25% K
The big concern in the scouting reports I’ve read on Beras is his makeup. Not that I particularly care about makeup in fantasy, but it’s there. Performance-wise, in each of the last two years he’s been a guy who turns it on in the second half. It could be that he needs time to adjust to a level, which is certainly normal. He’ll hit High-A as a 21-year-old, and this is probably a make-or-break season for him in terms of his dynasty value, although I’m still cautiously optimistic he figures it out.
Leody Taveras, OF | Age: 17 | ETA: 2020 | 2015 Level: DNP
2015 Stats: N/A
Taveras is the furthest away of the names in this tier, and when it comes to his offensive profile he’s not all that much different than Jenkins. He’s a switch hitter who plays center and looks like he could develop some power down the road, but how much and when is another matter entirely. It’s hard to see so far into the future, but Taveras has some tools and the Rangers have had some success developing these kids.
Josh Morgan, 3B/OF | Age: 20 | ETA: 2018 | 2015 Level: A
2015 Stats: 416 PA, .288/.385/.362, 3 HR, 9 SB, 11% BB, 13% K
Morgan looks more like a future floorbored than a superstar, but he can play both positions on the left side of the infield and there’s just enough power and speed to make him interesting in deeper leagues. His plus makeup and mature approach make everything play up and give him a good shot at making it, but he still hasn’t seen any upper level pitching yet either.
Ronald Guzman, 1B | Age: 21 | ETA: 2018 | 2015 Level: A/A+
2015 Stats: 556 PA, .283/.324/.434, 12 HR, 5 SB, 6% BB, 21% K
Guzman would be a lot more interesting if I felt he could hit 20+ homers, but he looks more like a 15-20 homer guy with a lot of pressure on his bat due to the fact that he can’t play anywhere but first base. There’s zippo speed as well, so at the end of the day it’s the type of player you don’t need to roster until he’s on the verge of the bigs, and that’s still a couple of years down the pike.
Luis Ortiz, RHP | Age: 20 | ETA: 2018 | 2015 Level: A
2015 Stats: 50 IP, 1.80 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 8.3 K/9
Like Tate, “Lulu” has a frontline ceiling, but with a slightly longer ETA and some missed time with an elbow issue, he’s an even riskier bet. Ortiz is a big man and gets criticized for his conditioning. That could affect his durability and chances to start, but for now he has all the pieces in place to be in a rotation with two plus pitches and above average control. Personally I’d let somebody else take him in a dynasty but I also put ketchup on my eggs so I know nothing.
Others: Michael DeLeon, Brett Martin, Yohander Mendez, Juremi Profar, Mike Matuella
2016 Minor League Preview Index
Yo Prospect Mike, someone in my league is asking about Jesse Winker. Looking at his propect list i think AJ Reed would be a fair trade. I have lot’s of OF, Brinson, Meadows, Dahl, Margot and Pompey. 6 of my 8 minor leaguers are OF. MLB has Reed as the top 1st baseman and close in the top 100. Our leauge is OBP so obviously Winker is more valuable in that format plus we have 5 OF spots to fill. Any insight would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!
getting Reed for Winker works for me
@Mike: Thanks! Hopefully he doesn’t read this site!
ha no problem
Mike, as a Phils fan, do you expect JP Crawford to hit the ground running and be top 10 or 5 SS next year or is a pitcher like Giolito or one of these Tex dudes a better investment for near future?
hmmm, I’d take Crawford over Giolito. As far as what he’ll do next year I think he could be Top 12 right away, but probably not top 5
Hey Mike, just for 2016 and ’17, who are your top 3 prospects? are they on this list?
Thanks
just for those two years? Probably Seager, Buxton, and Gallo
I’m totally behind the bats>arms and I was really liking A.J. Reed but would you trade him for Giolito in a 30-team?
I think that’s a pretty even swap, with an edge to Gio
Hey mike, dynasty trade question for ya. We are in our second year, so our draft will consist of rookie/new signees only. Also this is a pretty deep 20 team league. I was offered his Yelich for my Lew Brinson and my 2nd round pick (#25 overall) or Joe Panik.
So either
Yelich for Brinson/2nd round pick
Or
Yelich for Brinson/Panik
Not sure how to value Brinson. Is he going to better than what Yelich is or can be? Is Yelich the type of player I am hoping for Brinson to turn into? I may be better off just waiting for Brinson to cook in the minors and add him when ready. My team is ready to win now, just need a couple more pieces. My outfield currently looks like this, Khris Davis, Buxton, Avi Garcia, Bradley Jr., Altherr, Maybin, and Wil Myers. Thanks!
Yelich is tempting, but I think I’d hold there
Hey Mike, do you see Alen hanson as an opening day starter, and over the next 3 to 4 years, what do you think for hr/sb/avg? Maybe 10+/10+/.275?
I think he’s got a shot, and that’s a nice conservative line. I think he’d get to 20 steals pretty easily though.
@Mike:
Ok cool. Would you prefer w.Flores over him? I know hes more power, not speed
Flores has shown he can do some damage in the majors, so yeah I probably would take him over Hanson. I guess that depends more on your current competitive window.
20 team h2h 7X7 with OPS, XBH, holds and QS added. start 1 of each position, 3 any OF, 1 util, 2 SP, 3 RP, 2 P, 3 DL, 2 NA slots. i have to keep 7, and could keep up to 9. Keepers are front loaded, and for every player under 9 you keep you’d get an 8th or 9th round pick for. Standard draft starts at round 10 (so any team keeping 9 doesn’t pick till round 10). this team got 5th last year. When i traded for Puig and Mesoraco i didn’t think Carpenter would be a keeper, then his homers kept going up,and of course he’s a very good doubles hitter no matter how many homers he gets.
OF -puig, cargo 1, heyward, ellsbury, a.jones, red dick (so i have too many OF’ers here)
2B -cano/forsythe
3B carpenter
C mesoraco
1B. bird/forsythe
SS segura/e.escobar
SP kazmir/j.zimm/fiers/hendricks/nola
RP capps
Basically it comes down to whether or not my 8th and 9th best players are better to keep rather than gamble and get 1 or 2 other people at pick(s) 140-180 (20 times 7-9)
another owner has too many keepers in harper, altuve, rizzo, blackmon, posey, upton, harvey, piscotty, jofer, bumgarner, rodon. he can’t keep 2 of those, and i meanwhile have 5 pretty good OF’ers and only 4 can play daily.
he’s willing to do puig for rodon + piscotty (i’d play piscotty at 1B primarily of course).
keepers are front loaded, he’s willing to do
puig + 12th rounder (3 round post maximum keepers) for 19th round + piscotty + rodon.
does that sound good or should i hold to a lower pick here?
@Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: sorry, the player he’ll add for that draft pick upgrade he wants is orlando arica, another guy he can’t keep, but as weak as my SS are pretty damn good for me to keep. my team got 5th so it’ll draft 16th in every round, and same thing if i keep less than 9.
2. i’m guessing my keepers are heyward/cano/carpenter/cargo 1/ellsbury/a.jones/rodon/piscotty and maybe 1 of mesoraco/kazmir/j.zimm if i don’t do the added pick for arcia or all of those with arcia if i do for full 9.
@Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: i forgot, i also have dahl, would i be better off holding that draft pick (i might very well get arcia later anyway) and keeping those 8 mentioned above? or possibly letting dahl go and keeping 1 of mesoraco/kaz/j.zimm
@Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: yahoo hasn’t yet added back some prospects (even though it has added mazara), like urias isn’t showing up yet either.
@Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: ok, so the choices, when bottled down are
1. take only puig for rodon + piscotty, keep 8 or 9 if one of them is dahl/mesoraco/kaz/zimm
or
2. take puig + 12th for piscotty + rodon + arcia + 19th and keep the 6 above plus these 3, and don’t keep any of dahl/mesoraco/kaz/zimm
option 1
@Mike: ok, i already did the puig trade for piscotty + rodon. you’re thinking arcia isn’t worth the difference between 12th rounder and 19th. that owner is trying to convince me it’s only way i get arcia as if some other teams are willing to shell out picks for him, which is kind of silly claim since he still hasn’t moved upton for a pick (which the very bad teams who don’t even have 7 decent keepers should JUMP on right away), even though he wants to.
Ok, so should i keep one of Dahl/Mesoraco/Kazmir/J-Zimm or get the earlier 9th round (earlier than standard draft) pick? roster now looks like this keeperwise
C
1B piscotty
2B cano
3B carpenter
SS
OF – cargo 1, heyward, a.jones, ellsbury (wow dahl showed up today, wasn’t there yesterday). start 3 OF, 1 util
SP -rodon
only have 1250 innings per year, so don’t need as many SP as in most of my leagues (most of mine have 1500-1700, so most of Grey’s rankings for SP aren’t necessarily the best at the lower ranks). His rankings are good for 12 team RCL’s made to only really keep 3-5 SP at all, but in mine i might stream one spot, but i still am best off keeping usually 6 SP at all times, if not more in H2H’s.
@Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: i could show who would be available (or likely to) if that helps.
@Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: oh yeah and to show that 1250 is pretty small amount of innings for SP since we roster 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P, 7 BN, so all 5 of those slots are best used for RP of some type, not SP who count as RP like some do. probably best used for 3 BN bats, 3 or 4 SP keepers during season, maybe 1 streamer.
I’d keep Dahl. Arcia might be worth that, but you know the value of those pick upgrades better than I do. He’ll probably be in the top 30 or close to it on my pre 2016 list.
@Mike: could keep dahl and try to trade an OF’er for a decent SS of similar value, but only SS that come into that value range are andrus/crawford/correa/tulo/lindor/bogaerts/kang
and i doubt correa guy is good for that. i won’t do it for tulo/crawford/andrus
@Mike: i’m guessing dahl is still higher overall prospect-wise on your list than arcia. Arcia is higher on most existing lists, but only since they have D be very important. He’s a speed/hit tool only guy looks like. Dahl is every tool.
yeah I think I’ll have Dahl higher
what’re yr thoughts on these 3 guys, they were on my predraft TEX list (not high enough up to draft of course)
J.Lemoine SP (tools from mlb.com 60/55/50 fast/slide/50 change, they quote he COULD be #2 SP)
E.Van Hooser 2B/OF (50/40/60, but sounds like utility)
F.Lopez SP (back end SP at best)
not big on any of them…might get lucky with Lemoine though
16tm roto keep 4
[email protected]$27
Polanco @$8
Springer @14….. great debate final keeper
[email protected]$4 or Wade Davis @$4? this was easy until i remembered davis was that cheap…..
Odubel for sagnof? i ask bc you’re a philly guy…
thx. for all you do.
Lindor
I like Odubel a lot, yeah :)
YAHOO FINALLY added mazara. lucky for me in that league where i’m TEX i got 17th/20. i had kept a high waiver all year after grabbing yes…many to grab him, but they never called him up, and since yahoo is a bunch of savages i’ll have to grab him this year’s draft and NA stash him.
@Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: and since they don’t yet have vlad guerrero i really have no issues with who to take. i’ll probably only draft 1 player there.
@Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: devers still not in yahoo yet.
d’oh!
nice!
SOB padlo got screwed going away from Coors.
yup, I don’t get that for the Rox
@Mike: he was one of the guys i was happiest to get back in july.
yahoo just opened up it’s leagues.
Do you think Cesar hernandez will build on last year or regress? Decent avg and 20+ steals? Grey is expecting a step back due to high babip last year, according to his rankings, but i know you’re the prospect and Phillies guy
Thanks!
probably regress…I’m not a big believer in him
Yo Mike, another home run here.
The more I read about Andrew Benintendi, the more I dig him. I’m third in dynasty draft this year so assuming Rodgers and Swanson are gone, I know I see you like Bregman more, how crazy is it to go Andrew Benintendi over Bregman or is Bregman just too safe and close and sure to get cute?
Thanks a lot
makes sense to me…I think I’ve got Beni right behind Bregman on the new blood list
@Alan: I should add that I already own Wong, Russell and Crawford in my dynasty league so Bregman would be trait bait or util. Thanks
15 team 5×5 dynasty
Jake McGee or Smyly?
Smyly
If Maraza and Brinson had an epic sword fight, who wins?
we’re all winners thanks to Totino Pizza Rolls
@Mike: Cheese, meat lovers, pepperoni?
you can keep all that corporate BS. I’m into punk pizza rolls with Totino’s
@Mike: Punk Mosh
I’m part of the Totino’s lifestyle…I’ll admit it
I would be crazy, even if I love Sano, to trade Addison Russell, Urias, Giolito and Piscotty for Kang, Sano, Stephenson and Fried right? dynasty league obviously.
Appreciate the time
hmmm, I like the Russell side yeah
Any chance you would go Robles over Bregman or Swanson in No. 3 dynasty slot?
prolly not since the other two are closer and play SS, but Robles is a top 50 guy now
and i’m sure you’ve seen that SNL skit with will ferrell as the yoga instructor who actually figures that one out. never leaves studio, even like 15 years later he’s still there.
lol yeah
i just noticed mlb.com has a international top 30 (if it was listed back at end of december when i could’ve added these guys to my team lists it’s my ass). some questions
1. j.ortiz OF PHI. why no him on PHI’s list? don’t buy the 50/65 hit/power given by them? yet they don’t show him on their top 30 list (it’s up to date in other ways though, randolph on it), it’s why i didn’t notice him before. he went at 2.14, 3 picks before i was about to start my CI grabs for power (denton/lavalley). not too worried about this one, as i would’ve had to have taken him over g.whitley at 17 overall.
2. seuly matias OF KC. this guy with decent tools (50/55/50), signed july 2nd, not listed in either of mlb.com’s top 30 KC, nor minor league ball’s top 30ish lists. he went late too, 5.23.
3. a.seijas STL. this guy has pretty good tools (60/60/50/55 fastball/curve/change/control), but went at 3.19, so i could’ve only gotten him had i not grabbed the two CI. also not in mlb.com’s top 30 for STL.
4. last we got these two who aren’t signed yet (and if they don’t by 1st day of season the drafters get a comp pick next year, those players would be in pool still)
vlad gutierrez SP (65/60/50/55 fast/curve/change/control) – went at 3.5
lazaro armentaros (cool name too) OF (55/60/65, just insane tool list) – went at 2.5, so probably can’t lament not taking him in the 1st round
5. just to show how weird/noncommensurate mlb.com’s lists are (other than having guys listed with tools that good but not in their own team’s top 30’s) is notice eddy martinez’ tools from 2 areas, those of international top 30 list, and CUBS top 30 list: 60/60/70 (a TOP 5 guy if true), vs 55/45/65. So the hit/speed is similarish, the power is 15 pts off?! What two groups of scouting is going on here. Do these people even speak the same language?
in hindsight Ortiz looks like at least an “other” for the Phils
I like Armenteros…I own him in a 20-teamer
yeah, the MLB stuff is good but the grades get a little wonky and I’m not sure how up to date their stuff is
@Mike: would you have taken seijas over a.smith or staumont
nah
@Mike: trust the tool reports of guys looked over by more likely more total people in the drafted guys.
Mike,
I know Profar isn’t a prospect, but what do you think 2016 will look like for him?
I traded for him where I could…I think he’ll get some at bats even if it’s in the outfield as long as he’s healthy. I still think there’s a lot of upside there. Could take a trade or injury to really get him a full time gig though.
I’ve heard the Rangers mentioned as a possible landing spot for the Brewers’ Lucroy. Who do you think would be good, reasonable targets for the Brewers to expect for him? I’d assume Gallo’s too steep but could any of the other Tier 1 guys be too much to hope for if it happened? I’ve heard Profar’s name come up but I’m still not sure how I’d feel about him even if the Rangers hadn’t said they want to keep him like I think they did.
I’d think they stay out of trading their Tier 1 guys. That’s pretty interesting about Profar though.
Mike, do you forsee doing a list of top prospects solely for 2016? Appreciate the in-depth lists
yup, I’ll do a top 30 or so around the same time I put out my Top 50 overall
Brinson or Beninetendi long term fantasy value?
tough one…probably Brinson though
Perfect person to ask this question, if you had a chance to get Mazara or Brinson cheap this year, which one would you want for this year and next in 7×7 obp slg avg?
Thanks as always. This system is pretty.
thanks! I’d still go Maz personally. At least some of Brinson’s value comes from his stellar defense in center, which is meaningless over here in fantasy land.