Today I will continue my proud tradition of not watching football and instead focus on the most notable fantasy prospects in the San Francisco Giants organization. As usual, they don’t have a true blue chip prospect. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t players on this farm who will develop into good fantasy pieces. In fact, over the past few years the Giants have been pretty good at bringing guys up that weren’t on the prospect radar and presto-changeo they are suddenly on everybody’s fantasy team. Matt Duffy comes to mind. Joe Panik is another. The pitching-friendly home park and the Giants’ success in developing arms also makes the pitching prospects a little more interesting than they’d normally be.
2015 Graduates
Hunter Strickland | Kelby Tomlinson | Chris Heston | Andrew Susac
Tier 2: Floorboreds
Lacking the “star” upside. They might have some warts, but their ETAs are on the horizon.
Christian Arroyo, SS | Age: 20 | ETA: 2017 | 2015 Level: A+
2015 Stats: 409 PA, .304/.334/.459, 9 HR, 5 SB, 5% BB, 18% K
If you follow along with a lot of minor league stuff, you’re probably aware of how hitterish the California League can be. It’s for that reason that we usually take stats from that league with a grain of salt. Arroyo hit over .300 and showed a little pop and speed, but the scouting grades don’t point to anything too exciting. It’s a well-rounded package, but one that doesn’t really have any stand out tools. If he doesn’t stick at short, there will be even more pressure on his bat to be productive.
Tyler Beede, RHP | Age: 22 | ETA: 2017 | 2015 Level: A+/AA
2015 Stats: 124.2 IP, 3.97 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.7 K/9
Beede split time between High-A and Double-A in 2015 and struggled with the upper level assignment. He walked more than four batters per nine in his 72 innings in the Eastern League and only struck out 49 batters. Beede was a first round pick in 2014 and there’s still plenty of upside here, but it will obviously take some more polishing before he’s ready to join the rotation. With three potentially plus pitches, Beede still has the highest ceiling of the pitchers listed here.
Jarrett Parker, OF | Age: 27 | ETA: 2016 | 2015 Level: AAA/MLB
2015 Stats: 504 PA, .283/.375/.514, 23 HR, 20 SB, 12% BB, 33% K
Outside of the age and strikeout rate, Parker looks like a decent gamble. There’s obviously some power and speed here, but you’ll have to look at him as more of a finished product and not a projectable prospect with a lot of room for improvement. The strikeouts could limit him to a fourth outfielder/bench bat, but if your team’s competitive window is still open, this is a guy who could give your dynasty outfield some depth.
Mac Williamson, OF | Age: 25 | ETA: 2016 | 2015 Level: AA/AAA/MLB
2015 Stats: 517 PA, .273/.368/.433, 13 HR, 4 SB, 10% BB, 21% K
Williamson is similar to Parker in age and proximity. He lacks the speed of Parker, but quickly closes that gap with a better strikeout rate and two fewer birthdays. Williamson spent only half of 2015 in Triple-A, so there’s a good chance he’ll return there for more seasoning to start the year. His above-average power should work in a corner outfield spot if he can hit enough to stick. Both Williamson and Parker had double-digit walk rates, which is a good sign.
Clayton Blackburn, RHP | Age: 23 | ETA: 2016 | 2015 Level: AAA
2015 Stats: 123 IP, 2.85 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 7.2 K/9
Blackburn has appeared on these lists for a while, and after spending all of the 2015 season in Triple-A we should finally see him surface in the majors this year. I don’t really understand why he doesn’t get more attention. He may not check all of the boxes on the scouting reports for his “stuff”, but in five minor league seasons his walk rate never rose above 2.5 BB/9 while his strikeout rate was always 7.0 K/9 or higher.
Adalberto Mejia, LHP | Age: 22 | ETA: 2016 | 2015 Level: AA
2015 Stats: 51.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.7 K/9
Mejia served a 50-game suspension in 2015, which delays his progress a bit. In a system full of right-handed pitchers, he stands out as a southpaw with mid-rotation upside. It’s more likely that he’s a BORP with decent ratios and ho-hum strikeout numbers though. That’s a more exciting profile in mono formats or deeper mixed dynasties. He’ll look to get back on track in the upper levels to start the season and could be in the mix for some MLB innings later in 2016.
Hunter Cole, OF | Age: 23 | ETA: 2017 | 2015 Level: A/A+/AA
2015 Stats: 499 PA, .301/.358/.474, 9 HR, 7 SB, 8% BB, 20% K
Cole played a little second base in 2015, but pretty much transitioned to the outfield in the upper levels. It would have been better for his fantasy value if he stayed in the middle infield, and he’s likely a utility guy in the majors with a chance for double-digit power. It’s hard to see where he fits on the big club right now, so it’s more likely he spends all of this year in the upper minors and sees the bigs sometime next season.
Austin Slater, 2B | Age: 23 | ETA: 2017 | 2015 Level: A+/AA
2015 Stats: 483 PA, .294/.334/.381, 3 HR, 5 SB, 5% BB, 19% K
Slater is like Cole in reverse. He’s also likely to be a utility player when it’s all said and done, with limited power and speed upside. But he transitioned from the outfield to second base instead of the other way around. It would take a breakout for Slater to become relevant in shallower dynasty leagues, so for now he’s more of a watch guy in deeper ones.
Sam Coonrod, RHP | Age: 23 | ETA: 2017 | 2015 Level: A
2015 Stats: 111.2 IP, 3.14 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 9.2 K/9
Coonrod was a fifth round pick in 2014, and his plus heater and slider combo could work in the rotation or the bullpen. The latter is a risk with pretty much any pitching prospect, but Coonrod has something working in his favor. It’s his walk rate, which has been consistently good in each of his first two seasons. I also dig that his name sounds like a big burly guy in Daniel Boone’s posse.
Kyle Crick, RHP | Age: 23 | ETA: 2016 | 2015 Level: AA
2015 Stats: 63 IP, 3.29 ERA, 9.4 BB/9, 10.4 K/9
At this point we can stop wondering and accept Crick for what he is – a reliever. One with a terrible habit of walking batters as well. The strikeouts were yummy, but they came laced with a 9.4 BB/9 in 2015. That’s like getting chocolate chip cookies laced with PCP. Sure they tasted good, but then you ran naked through the streets yelling at mailboxes to give you back your baby. Not really worth it.
Others: Chris Stratton, Ty Blach, Dylan Davis, Aramis Garcia, Josh Osich
Tier 3: Long Shot Lolitas
Sexy ceilings, but these youngsters also come with risks and distant ETAs.
Chris Shaw, 1B | Age: 22 | ETA: 2018 | 2015 Level: A(ss)
2015 Stats: 200 PA, .287/.360/.551, 12 HR, 0 SB, 10% BB, 21% K
Even though he busted his hamate in college, Shaw put up 12 homers in just 200 plate appearances in his first taste of pro ball. The lower first round pick by the Giants (31st overall), he could end up being the better fantasy bet despite being selected 13 picks after Bickford. Shaw’s a big man with plus power and a patient approach. He is likely limited to first base defensively, but there’s enough bat to carry his fantasy value there.
Lucius Fox, SS | Age: 18 | ETA: 2020 | 2015 Level: DNP
2015 Stats: N/A
When Fox isn’t designing planes for Batman, he’s playing baseball. The 18-year-old shortstop should end up somewhere up the middle even if it’s not short. He’s young enough that there’s still some power projection, and scouts like his ability to make contact. The best tool is still his speed though, which is double-plus and should make him an interesting asset in dynasty leagues even if the rest of the package doesn’t come together.
Jalen Miller, SS | Age: 19 | ETA: 2019 | 2015 Level: Rk
2015 Stats: 197 PA, .218/.292/.259, 0 HR, 11 SB, 9% BB, 21% K
Miller’s fantasy value is going to come from his speed and position on the diamond. There are some reports that see double-digit pop down the road and there’s certainly some potential with the bat, but at this point I wouldn’t sweat him in most formats. It’s just a little too early and a little too light an offensive profile.
Steve Duggar, OF | Age: 22 | ETA: 2018 | 2015 Level: A(ss)
2015 Stats: 267 PA, .293/.390/.367, 1 HR, 6 SB, 13% BB, 19% K
Duggar is a toolsy left-handed bat from Clemson that fell to the 6th round for the Giants in the 2015 draft. His best tool is his speed, and there’s enough arm to play any outfield spot. Whether there’s enough power is another thing altogether, and to this point Duggar hasn’t shown much in games. He should move quickly and if the bat holds up he could be an everyday player. If not, there’s at least a speedy fourth outfielder here.
Phil Bickford, RHP | Age: 20 | ETA: 2018 | 2015 Level: Rk
2015 Stats: 22.1 IP, 2.01 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 12.9 K/9
Last year’s first pick for the Giants, Bickford has a big fastball and a lot of potential in the rest of his arsenal. If he can develop his slider and change, there’s upside for a #3 starter here. If not, he’ll join the small army of pitching prospects turned relievers where his heater will play up even more. With only a handful of rookie-level innings, it’s too early to tell which direction he’ll go which means it’s also too early to invest in dynasty leagues. The fact that he never signed with the Blue Jays in 2013 is a little weird.
Others: Ryder Jones, Andrew Suarez, Mac Marshall, Jordan Johnson, Michael Santos
2016 Minor League Preview Index
Nice rundown of the Giants prospects.
I would add to two of your profiles, Arroyo and Blackburn. It should be noted that both did very well at their levels and did it while much younger than the players in the leagues, Arroyo has been 2+ years younger than the league every season, and Blackburn mostly 3-4 years younger, and was 4.8 years younger on average in AAA last season. Generally, guys who are younger than the league and do well are the ones who make the majors eventually. So people in keeper leagues might want to keep an eye on them.
thanks!
Hey Mike,
My 16-team, 12-man MiLB draft is around pick 130+ and unfortunately Jomar Reyes, the one guy I really wanted to get, was taken.
Here in the deep end of the prospect pool, I’m barely familiar with names and have relied on comments and chats to discover new guys.
Any lottery tickets that could explode this 2016 season? We use OBP.
Some guys still on the board that I’ve learned about that I (think) carry that profile:
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL)
Isiah Gilliam (NYY)
trayce thompson (LAD)
Yairo Munoz (OAK)
RHys Hoskins (PHI)
Chris Shaw (SF)
Jharel Cotton (LAD)
Pedro Avila (WAS)
Braxton Davidson (ATL)
Braxton’s BB% is eye popping, so that’s appealing. Anyone from this group a “must grab” at this point? Any other names that come to mind that you think I should seek out?
nobody a must grab really
hard to say without knowing who is available
santillan or staumont KC. both have bullpen risk (staumont apparently higher on that, but also chance at setup man-closer if bullpen is higher chance). minor league ball gives staumont pretty good grade B-, Fangraphs has Santillan ranked 40+ over Staumont’s 40. MLB.com has Santillan’s overall ranking of a 50 better than Staumont’s 45. Santillan has 2 plus pitches with no third and some control issues, Staumont hits 100 as a starter but has less of a good 2nd pitch and even less control.
eh, I’d go Staumont
@Mike: hmm, glad i asked then, can’t wait to see how highly up you put him on KC’s list for long shots.
Taylor Sparks 3B prospect in Cincy..Any good?
Eddy j martinez or a. Meadows? Thx
Meadows…no problem
a guy is offering me one of two things for my pick at 5.17. a.toles ex TB prospect flamed out in their org for attitude problems or something unnamed that isn’t drug related (at least legally), or 2017 4th rounder. Another possible reason to maybe do this is i only have 1 prospect slot left and have all of rj alvarez/drury that could be sent down or in alvarez’ case not come up at all for a while. so i’d have to drop at most 1 person (it’d be hak ju lee) as is, a 2nd if i draft one of
a.santillan/staumont KC, who i’m thinking of drafting. rosterwise i already have all of whitley/tocci/cozens/victor reyes/d.alvarez/dj davis/ m sierra/ dj davis for OF prospects though, so probably could use more SP possible types (or i’m seeing Staumont might be good RP if not starter anyway). If both of those are gone i could go with a more boring SP or grab a pretty useful long term RP guy (i’ve gone over those with Smokey). 12 picks till me so i don’t know for sure availability of those SP.
@goodfold2: Toles seems too risky though with all of
“Dismissed from Tennessee, suspended and benched at Chipola, benched for being lazy in Charlotte, released by Rays (after one month or less in camp)”
@goodfold2: he has signed with LAD, but didn’t make their top near 30 list at minor league ball, which did come out 2 months after his signing, so he would’ve been listed had they thought he deserved it.
hmmm, I’ve looked at Toles a couple of times as a buy low, but yeah I think you’d be better off holding the pick and having more options for what you want to do with the pick
What to make of cuban SS Alfredo Rodriguez? Eta and projections?
@danny almonte: sounds like too much glove, basing it on
rotoworld’s tonight blurb (guy was drafted in my deep league just now, with many better sounding guys at MI still out there)
:”Known more for his glove than his bat, the 21-year-old batted .265/.301/.284 with no home runs and 12 steals over 304 plate appearances in his last year in Serie Nacional.”
@goodfold2:
Thanks! Too deep for what im in.
@danny almonte: too deep for very high % of leagues.
agree with goodfold, prolly not worth your time
Hey Mike, in a dynasty league, I own Bryant and Wright and Turner and need SP.
Is it a good idea to trade Justin Turner for Patrick Corbin or will I regret it if Bryant gets hurt since wright won’t play all year?
Gracias
I’d do Corbin for Turner sure
Hey Mike:
I’m in the last round of the minor league portion of my dynasty draft. Which of these four guys do you like the best:
Rob Refsnyder, Andrew Knapp, Jomar Reyes, Braxton Davidson.
Many thanks!
Jomar
Thanks for the advice! Just in case he doesn’t make it back to me, who is your 2nd choice?
no problem. probably Davidson
Hey Mike,
My 16-team, 12-man MiLB draft is chugging along. We’re around the mid-70s in overall picks. Still haven’t selected a SP and intend to do so with one of my next two picks.
Can you pick three of these guys (ranked) that you think are worth it?
Jameson Taillon
Kolby Allard
Dillon Tate
Kyle Zimmer
Michael Fulmer
Carson Fulmer
Hunter Harvey
Brady Aiken
@Left Hangs Lower:
You can add Max Fried to that list.
hmmm. Taillon, C Fulmer. and Zimmer…
Any chance guys like Mike Foltynewicz and Josh Hader can win rotation spots (and keep them) on their respective teams this year? And does Folty or Hader have the higher upside?
I think I’d lean Folty
@Mike: Thanks, have you heard any news on his offseason since his 2015 ended on a rough note?
no sorry :(
You think Cliff Lee will be signed and worth something this year?
eh maybe. I wouldn’t count on it
Any of these SP’s have a chance to be useful this year:
Beachy
Parker
Skaggs
Minor
Cain
Anderson
Latos
Foltynewicz
Banuelos
Nova
Sabathia
sure, just depends on the league. I mean they aren’t exactly the creme de la creme or whatever that stupid saying is
@Mike: it’s for my 5 x 5 roto..Just looking to see if any are ownable for just this season or just streamers..
they look like streamers to me
@Mike: Ok, lets play that game again called hypothetical, say you have 2 open roster spots, which 2 would you grab right now and hope they have solid seasons?
the youngest with jobs?
@Mike: I am not sure if any have jobs at the moment..
@Mike: I am not sure if any have jobs at the moment..For now I will go Skaggs and Jarrod Parker
@Malicious Phenom: cain has a job right now. latos probably with most upside.
guy just took that korean guy one pick ahead of me. you think he’s really good enough to be a top notch set up man already? i got austin smith though.
@goodfold2: eh, i’m seeing he’s 33 years old so i wouldn’t have drafted him anyway.
nice…which Korean guy?
@Mike: seung hwan oh
eh, doesn’t look like somebody you’d take before the later rounds
@Mike: this is the 4th round (we only have 5 and i have only 5 picks, one each round, some people have traded into like 10 picks, but i’d have to cut prospects to even do that). but i’m figuring a.smith and the possibility of a decent starter down the road is worth more. many many RP (albeit possibly worse than a top 15 set up guy maybe, if that’s what this guy is) are available each and every year for cheap.
Keep forever. Would you deal elsbury for cueto? Both seem risky. Or maybe I target Kimbrel… Thanks mike.
no problem…I could see taking on Cueto if you need an arm to anchor your staff. Otherwise I’d stick with the bat
Lucius Fox!!
@Ra’zbahl Al Ghul: my speed is too powerful, irresponsible.
Who’d you rather in a dynasty? Michael Conforto or Maikel Franco?
Franco
@Mike: that’s an easy one for you
ok. the boring steadyness of austin smith SD or the upside but wildness (and bad park) of santillan CIN? was starting to get teased by nolan watson lasting into my 4th round but clearly he didn’t last till near end of it. Staumont KC also out there but he seems even more of bullpen risk than santillan.
Smith SD
@Mike: it’s funny since these two went only two spots apart in real life draft. might be able to get both also, so this was really about which to grab first.
No Spex for you SF! Looking at Jarrett P’s path to the majors, do you have any sense why clubs drag their feet on guys like the G’s did with JP? 2 full seasons at high-A, two full seasons at AA? Then the dude is middle-aged before he ever dips his toe… Minnesota does that a lot too, 2 years in rookie ball, etc…
not sure, but internally I’m sure they have loads of scouting info on their own guys
@Mike: yeah, it just seems weird to me that they would invest a 2nd round pick in a college bat and then leave him in the minors for basically 5 full years/seasons. His K has steadily come down, and his avg has risen, so maybe the Giants are weird geniuses…
Morning Prospector Mike!
Ok after the huge trades for Goldy (gave up Sano, McCullers,Giolito,Park) & Puig (gave up Bruce,Carlos Rodon), here is what my team looks like now.
I was able to fill out my roster with some decent players as well..
.Forever keeper. (45 man rosters)
MALICIOUS PHENOMS 2016
C – Travis D’arnaud NYM – C
1B – Miguel Cabrera DET – 1B
2B – Starlin Castro NYY – 2B,SS
3B- Todd Frazier CWS – 3B
SS – José Reyes COL – SS
CI- Paul Goldschmidt – 1B
MI – Ian Desmond WAS – SS
OF – Justin Upton – OF
OF – Yoenis Céspedes – OF
OF – Yasiel Puig LA – OF
OF – Gregory Polanco PITT – OF
OF – Billy Hamilton CIN– OF
CI- Albert Pujols LAA – 1B
U – Alex Rodriquez NYY – 3B
BENCH:
Wil Myers SD – 1B/OF
Jurickson Profar TX – 2B
Addison Russell CHC – 2B,SS
Javier Báez CHC – 2B,SS,3B
Jorge Soler CHC- OF
Cameron Maybin DET – OF
Blake Swihart BOS – C
Nomar Mazara TX – OF
MINORS:
Vlad Guerrero Jr TOR – 3B/OF
Rafael Devers BOS – 3B
Manuel Margot SD – OF
Eddy Martinez CHC – OF
Jorge Maeto NYY – SS
Ke’Bryan Hayes PHILS – 3B
STARTING PITCHERS:
Félix Hernández SEA – SP
Stephen Strasburg WAS – SP
Johnny Cueto SF – SP
Masahiro Tanaka NYY – SP
Robert Ozuna TOR – CL
Kenley Jansen LAD – CL
David Robertson CWS – CL
Michael Pineda NYY – SP
Scott Kazmir – SP
Ryu, Hyun-jin LA – SP
Kenta Madea LA – SP
Luis Severino NYY -SP
BENCH:
Trevor Bauer CLE – SP
Joe Ross WAS – SP
Taijaun Walker SEA – SP
Matt Moore TB – SP
MINORS:
Dylan Bundy BAL – SP
Julio Urias LA – SP
Archie Bradley AZ – SP
INJURED RESERVE:
Greg Holland NA – CL
Still good trades??
looks solid
for sure…I like the Puig move a lot
@Mike: Ok so, you think I still have enough pitching?
Also thanks for working the late shift the other night!
yeah looks fine
no problem
@Mike:
I added:
Matt Moore
Archie Bradley
Jorge Maeto
Ke’Bryan Hayes
to make up the diff of trading 6 for 2.
Should I keep the 4 or add Grant Holmes, Yadier Alvarez,Dillion tate, Cornelius Randolph Josh Naylor or Lucius Fox or are there any other specs you can think of that are better than these guys..
Usually I never have to ask these questions, but this is the first league in all my playing days that I have had to deal with prospects..
Randolph over Hayes
@Mike: Cool, thanks for all your help Mike, really appreciate it..
cheers mate
anytime…you too
@Mike: One last question, any really good 1B specs you recommend..
Bell? Smith?
@Mike: They are both available, Bell being the better of the two??
I was thinking a spec down the road a bit, eta 2019 or beyond, I think I have 1B covered for awhile, but they are getting old..lol
Bell
@Mike: who do you think I should drop to grab Josh Bell?
bundy
@Mike: I am a huge Bundy fan, I think he has a solid year this year and breaks out next year or I am I being way to optimistic??
@Mike: Yeah, I ran that Puig trade with MP. I’m okay with it because I have a decent OF already (with Clint Frazier-Brett Phillips-Austin Meadows in the pipe) and Puig’s mercurial nature bugs me. I hope Rodon holds up and fixes his walks issue as the White Sox improve. Also, I’m thinking Bruce gets shipped out of Cincy to a productive team.
Looking at Parker here, does he earn playing time this year over Pagan/Blanco? His minors numbers are pretty consistent and it’s not as if someone with that K-rate has never succeeded in the MLB. A .275+20/20 hitter looks mighty good on that Giants team this year though.
makes sense…prolly an injury to open things up for Parker, but he’s interesting for sure
@Mike: you better not be agreeing with a .275 20/20 year out of parker
@Malicious Phenom: see, you have no problem typing in a roster here, right. didn’t take too long either i bet.
@goodfold2: Copy and paste, my friend, copy and paste..lol
@Malicious Phenom: that’s exactly the idea you could’ve used for those openings in those leagues. don’t understand the disjunct here.
@goodfold2: Well I kind of didn’t want to post the rosters, just see their interest in the league first and then email them the teams privately..No worries its all good.
@Malicious Phenom: but no small part of interest level would come (or lack of it) from seeing what team they would be getting. I fill dead teams all the time, it seriously saves everyone time before you go to email phase to know as much as possible. And it sucks for the person with possible interest to email, only to take more emails to find out that eventually, after getting all relevant info that they in fact do not want the open team(s). And at that point you’ve wasted your own time too.
@goodfold2: I see ur point, thanks..I am hoping I do not have any more openings for a long, long time..
@Malicious Phenom: that is always the best hope.
You’ve given me pause on Mac and Blackburn. I will file them away in the emergency folder.
Jarret Parker looks to be on the David Freese career trajectory
but I like Blackburn!
@Mike: sorry I meant you’ve given me pause…from ordinarily ignoring SF prospects!
oh ha I get it now
@Yescheese: you mean the part where he goes crazy with the bat and is entirely integral in a WS championship in his own hometown, becomes a local hero, drinks the kool-aid (likely from the navel of some dude in STL’s sister/girlfriend who actually would be happy to gloat that “freese received sex act X from my sister/girlfriend/cousin (etc) while i was adjacent to said during said act!”), way too much actually, slowly regresses to the likely player he should’ve been in the first place.
@Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: you nailed it. Sounds like a player to own! (This year)
Still some spots left in a new 16 team Fantrax dynasty league. We’ve already got some solid long time Razzball commenters and writers in the league including Smokey, Ralph Lifshitz, Big Red Machine 72, and others, and we would love for more to join us.
-16 teams. Very selective. Open to more if most of the league agrees after we fill.
-rotisserie
-6×6 scoring (AVG, OBP, SLG, R, RBI, NSB, QS, ERA, WHIP, K, NS, HLD)
-30 MLB roster spots incl. C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CI, MI, 5 OF, 12 P, 6 reserves
-10 Minor League roster spots
– Looking like an offline draft with 12 hour picks
– STRICT enforcement of active managers. Good opportunity to get in on a great league on the ground floor.
If you’re interested, email me at [email protected] and tell me a little bit about yourself and why you want to join this league. Also tell me who your top 2 favorite minor leaguers (1 offensive player and 1 pitcher) are right now and why.
sounds fun!
@Mike: Does that mean you’re in Mike? ;-)
unfortch I’m already in a bunch. thanks though!
@Speedy McGreedy: good idea to include all relevant info before somebody emails you. Saves time (yours too).
@Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: That’s some good folding!
@Ra’zbahl Al Ghul: sounds like a good idea. i also endorse this.