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Draft season is upon us and it is time to unveil the inaugural Top 100 Hitter Rankings for the 2021 Fantasy Baseball season.  Throughout the year, I will be updating my rankings and calling out those movers and shakers.  This week we will be covering the first half of the top 100 broken down into six individual tiers.  Before we get started, we need to qualify how the rankings are developed and designed to be used:

The top 100 ranks are aimed at traditional 5×5 scoring with Yahoo roster eligibility and rules. There will be key differences for points and OBP leagues, so adjust accordingly.
Tiers are used to illustrate where there is fluidity in the rankings. It is more important what tier a player is in rather than their ultimate rank.  As the season progresses, we will look to break down the tiers.
Stats from the last few seasons drive much of the initial placement of a player and then adjustments are made based on potential for growth or potential for fluke.

Before we jump in, a quick overview of the top 50 tells us a few interesting notes:

There is only one Corner Infielder in the Top 10, which goes a long way to tell us that positional scarcity is not what it once was.
There is only one catcher and one utility player in the Top 50, however in many leagues with less forgiving eligibility there is one additional utility player (Yordan Alvarez).
Keeping in mind that we are double counting across roles there is decent balance across the diamond with 16 Corner Infielders, 18 Middle Infielders and 23 Outfielders.

Without further ado, we can get into the real reason you are here and begin to dissect the Top 100 Hitter Rankings for the 2021 Fantasy Baseball season.

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With these top 100 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball, I’ve finished our (my) 2019 fantasy baseball rankings for positions.  Still coming will be a top 100 overall and top 500 to see how all the positions mesh together like your mesh Redskins jersey that meshes with your burgundy sweatpants.  Trust me, when you see how long this post is, you’ll be glad I kept this intro short.  As always, my projections are included, and where I see tiers starting and stopping.  If you want an explanation of tiers, go back to the top 10 overall and start this shizz all over again.  Anyway, here’s the top 100 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball:

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Felix Hernandez went 6 IP, 7 ER, ERA at 5.73 vs. Bartolo Colon – 7 IP, 4 ER, ERA at 5.18.  Or is that Bartolo Colon, weighing in at 518 pounds from parts unknown and ratios you don’t want to know?  This matchup was billed as, “F-Her/Colon, rated NC-17.  Or maybe simply NR, as in Not Recommended.”  All kidding aside, F-Her’s fallen so far, Colon is outpitching him, and Colon is not outpitching anyone else.  That’s a Trump tweeted, “Sad!”  On the bright side, Rougned Odor (2-for-5, 2 runs, 4 RBIs and his 14th homer) has rediscovered our love.  Two years ago, Odor beat up Jose Bautista.  Last year, he beat up his fantasy owners.  This year, he’s beating back the beat like Vinny from The Jersey Shore.  I’m glad I went back in on him because making up is sweeter than caramel honey on your bed sheets. (Is that an R. Kelly song?  It should be.)   I’d contend (for the featherweight title) that Odor really hasn’t done anything different this year.  Yes, his walk rate is nearly double, but his BABIP has turned around.  Here’s what that leads me to believe:  You get a little bit luckier, so you don’t feel compelled to swing at everything, so you get more selective.  It’s a self-fullfilling prophecy in direct opposition to what happened to him last year.  Does this mean I’m going back in him for a third year in a row next year?  Damn skippy!  He can’t fail me again! (He totally can!)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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[brid autoplay=”true” video=”275229″ player=”10951″ title=”Fantasy Baseball Mailbag Week 18″]

Yesterday, Kole Calhoun went 1-for-2 and his 14th homer and, seriously, how many home runs does he have since the break?  475?  Am I warm?  Because it feels like I’m super warm…*eyes drift to a mirror* …so super, super warm.  Hot even.  What’s your name?  *snaps out of it*  Damn it, reflection!  Okay, starting a dynasty team, Trout or Calhoun?  It’s too difficult to decide!  What is this world coming to with the fire emoji that is Kole Calhoun in the last two weeks?  I can’t handle it.  Literally, and I’m wearing oven mitts.  Here’s Calhoun two weeks ago:  *opens DeLorean door*  “I can go anywhere?  How about Balco in 2001?”  Somehow, Calhoun is only owned in 45% of leagues, which I hope means 55% of people are already checking out our fantasy football rankings.  If not, shame.   Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Just finished my first draft if you’re reading this as I type it, and other than one shirtless man in yellow sweatpants standing behind me in this internet cafe, I don’t think anyone’s reading this as I type it.  Unless, of course, there’s micronauts living inside my brain watching as my inner monologue is sending info to my fingers.  Gadzooks, I got micronauts in my brain!  I wonder if these micronauts made me draft eight Twins and White Sox players.  I need to delve deeper into this subject.  Maybe I will in my pastel journal that is covered in Giancarlo’s picture from ESPN’s nude magazine.  So, I took on the monsters of the industry in an AL Only league that was hosted by Scott White of CBS and I came away with a team that is more imbalanced than Amanda Bynes.  This league is deep so hold onto ye old hat.  (If you want a shallower league, play against me and hundreds of your closest buddies in the Razzball Commenter Leagues.  Or closet buddies, if you’re reading fast and/or experimenting.)  Anyway, here’s my 12-team AL-Only team and some thoughts:

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It’s just like old times, as we here at Razzball are profiling a Brewers starter this week. I can’t put my finger on what that means, but I digress. The familiarity doesn’t just end there my friends, oh no, we just happen to be covering the MLB debut for one of the top pitching prospects in the minors, Brandon Woodruff. On the heels of a somewhat out of nowhere breakout in 2016, Woodruff exploded onto the dynasty league radar, and squarely into the ranks on several top prospect lists. After leading the minors in strikeouts last year, the righty credited an increased pace, thanks to the direction of AA pitching coach Chris Hook. After a solid showing in the challenging confines of Colorado Springs earlier this season, Woodruff was called up in mid-June to make a spot start. Unfortunately he was injured warming up, was scratched from his debut, and did a month on the disabled list with a hamstring injury. Recalled Friday to face the contending Rays in Tampa, Woodruff might be an interesting stream down the stretch in re-drafts of all sizes. Let’s see how the highly touted rookie looks vs a seasoned AL East lineup. Not a bad litmus test.

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We have a bit of a light lineup this week due to some off days on Monday and Thursday, so Week 19 will be more of a challenge to find value among the Two-Start Starters. It sounds like Max Scherzer is going to be healthy enough to go and make his two starts, but that only helps out Scherzer owners and not the rest of us who are looking for some available value.

Even Streamonator is down on Week 19, as there weren’t any available starters owned in less than 75% of RCLs with a positive dollar value. There is one possible exception to that statement*, but we’re not going to let statistically-based advice from Streamonator stop us from rolling the dice this week, right?

There are, however, a few starters in our Replicas that I would roll with this week who might be available in your leagues. It will likely be harder to grab at least two of these starters in an RCL where waivers and ownership are a bit more savage, but all three are owned in less than 75% of ESPN leagues.

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Maybe Carlos Rodon is a bit more high, ahhh, ummm, profile than the usual pitching, ahhh, ummm, profile candidate I cover. After all, at points over the last few years this is a guy who’s been universally owned. Things have definitely been a different story in 2017, as he missed all of April and May, and most of June recovering from a biceps injury. Following two strong starts upon his return, we’ve seen “Bad Carlos” over the last three turns. The former third overall pick has been steady, but inconsistent throughout his first two seasons in the big leagues. Apt to spells of poor control and command, that typically led to some ugly pitching lines. Is that what’s happening here? Simply a case of “Bad Carlos”? Good or bad, something has obviously been amiss the past few starts, let’s take a look under the hood and see what’s going on. Are these problems fixable or is there a lingering injury? On Sunday Rodon faced the red hot Indians and my guess is you already know what happened. Here’s what I saw.

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If your approach in RCL leagues is anything like mine, then you’re carrying maybe 2-3 starters, and filling in the cracks with well researched streamers. Part of my process, as I’m sure it is with many of you, is to check the streamonator for the highest value available probables. Then I dive deeper into the matchup stats, and follow that up with a glance at the starters recent track record. One of the more common suggestions over the past few weeks has been Mets starter Rafael Montero. Best described as a AAAA starter, he’s long been the shuttle guy, and spot starter, whenever an elbow pops in the Mets rotation. With injuries a plenty in Flushing, there’s been abundant opportunity for Montero to stick for the better part of the next month, and beyond. Let’s take a deep dive into Montero’s Sunday start vs. the Oakland Athletics, and see if he might be an arm to keep in mind, as we stream our way to the promised land.

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The list of two-start starters for Week 16 is pretty ugly. Not only did it take some time to materialize as teams figured out their rotations following the All-Star break, but once the dust settled and we had a good idea of who would be starting when many of the names we were left with were not all that appealing. Sure, the high-end options like Kershaw (for now), Strasburg, and Greinke were there, but the meat and bones of the list were lacking.

Just ignore Clayton Kershaw. At this point in the season, I am convinced that Dave Roberts reads this post every week and then trolls us all by changing his rotation on Sunday night. He is at the top of the list as of this writing, but that could easily change in the next few seconds. The Dodgers have a dozen or so possible starting pitchers, and Roberts shuffles or adjusts his rotation pretty frequently.

One name to take a look at this week is the soft-tossing Brent Suter. While he does not exactly light up the radar gun, he has been very effective in his recent stint as a starter for the Brewers. In his last two starts, he shut out the Orioles over six innings while striking out eight and then allowed just two earned runs over 6 ? innings against the Yankees while striking out five before the break.

Throughout his career in the minors, Suter has been consistently solid-yet-unremarkable. In other words, he has never really been great but hasn’t been bad, either. He has a 3.44 ERA across six seasons in the minor leagues while throwing to a 3.12 ERA during his time in the show. His 2.96/2.78/8.23/2.63 (see chart below) is also solid.

Streamonator does not like him as much as I do. The ‘nator has Suter up around its 20th best option or so (with a negative value), while I have him at the top of the Standards category below, which puts him around 15th or so. He is, however, only owned in 1% of all RCLs, so he should be available to everyone reading this except the one person who is in the league with that one guy or gal who already picked him up.

If you are in need of an arm in the short term, especially in a two-start week, you can do worse. You can do better, too, but I like Suter as a guy who can offer some solid short term numbers. Other guys Streamonator likes for the upcoming week who are owned in less than 50% of RCLs: Matt Moore, Zack Wheeler, and Rafael Montero.

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Legit, this is longest July 4th weekend of all time.  In 1776 on July 4th, Ben Franklin grabbed six ladies, and was like, “This will be better than Flag Day.  We will call this Flagellation Day.  Now twerk with a firework!”  That lasted for three days until Ben yelled out an Astros’ hitter last name and called for a volunteer fire department to put out his redness.  Any hoo!  Ian Desmond hit the DL with “I wanna rest for a few extra days before the break.”  It’s an epidemic that is going around the majors right now.  This especially sucks for those that had him in their weekly lineups because you’re getting ziplock.  But, for the rest of us, we got Raimel Tapia (3-for-4, 2 runs and his 2nd homer).  Fun fact!  He has a brother who drinks too much and can’t control his lasciviousness.  His name is Felasleepon Tapia.  Raimel gets a huge boost in value with Desmond’s DL stint.  He’s a grab for every league, especially if you need SAGNOF.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Sometimes you make a pitch because of the pitcher’s work.  Other times, you make it based on the work of the team he’s facing.  Lukewarm suggestion, Adalberto Mejia, come on down!  Really, I’m not gonna stump for many pitchers today as none of them have shown any form of consistency and the ones that I kinda sorta like are in difficult spots.  So with that, I’m sitting here staring at Mejia, seeing who flinches first…dah!  It was me!  Really, though, the Angels have been horrid over their last 7.  During that stretch they’re 28th in wRC+ and second to last in both SLG% and wOBA.  It’s a team that, surprise, surprise, is missing having Mike Trout in the middle of things.  Full disclosure: today is a GPP day to me and I wouldn’t really jump in to this slate with a cash mindset.  Why do I say that?  Well, take a look at the DFSBot and tell me how many of those pitching names you’d put your money behind today.  Go big and wild or go home, I say, and that’s what Mejia means to me as I don’t even like the guy!  DFS can make for strange bed partners…anyhoo, enough of that, let’s get on to this.  Here’s my Moonlight hot taeks for this blah blah land Monday slate…right after I remind you that this is still a thing.  Hit me up in the comments or on twitter and we can go from there:

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