Sometimes you make a pitch because of the pitcher’s work. Other times, you make it based on the work of the team he’s facing. Lukewarm suggestion, Adalberto Mejia, come on down! Really, I’m not gonna stump for many pitchers today as none of them have shown any form of consistency and the ones that I kinda sorta like are in difficult spots. So with that, I’m sitting here staring at Mejia, seeing who flinches first…dah! It was me! Really, though, the Angels have been horrid over their last 7. During that stretch they’re 28th in wRC+ and second to last in both SLG% and wOBA. It’s a team that, surprise, surprise, is missing having Mike Trout in the middle of things. Full disclosure: today is a GPP day to me and I wouldn’t really jump in to this slate with a cash mindset. Why do I say that? Well, take a look at the DFSBot and tell me how many of those pitching names you’d put your money behind today. Go big and wild or go home, I say, and that’s what Mejia means to me as I don’t even like the guy! DFS can make for strange bed partners…anyhoo, enough of that, let’s get on to this. Here’s my Moonlight hot taeks for this blah blah land Monday slate…right after I remind you that this is still a thing. Hit me up in the comments or on twitter and we can go from there:
— Sky (@Sky_Razzball) June 28, 2017
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Masahiro Tanaka, SP: $19,200 – Ok, if we’re still talking cash – and that should be a font size 72 ‘IF’ – we gotta talk Tanaka. See why I am GPP’ing today! Tanaka three QS in his last four and the game sandwiched in there that was ‘bad’ had 10 K to 1 walk. Tanaka is seemingly back, but trust is a mutha in this game. SP1 if you’re cash gaming tonight.
Ivan Nova, SP: $16,800 – Nola is darling in this matchup, but I just can’t help thinking giving Nova the Phillies is just what he needs to right the ship. We all knew he wasn’t going to be a sub-2 ERA guy with his K/9 rate, but I’m not sure he’s the 4.10 xFIP guy the world wants to call him, either. Anyhoo, the Phils rank second to last on the year, and third to last against RHP in wRC+. I’ll be riding Nova as one of my SP in GPPs today. Come join the fun.
Rick Porcello, SP: $15,000 – Currently has his highest K/9 and SwSt% of his career. That said, his GB% is the lowest it’s been his entire career at 37.4%. So he’s gone from Derek Lowe to Ted Lilly. Don’t ask me where that throwback analysis came from, I’m flipping old! The Rangers are always a daunting thought to attack when they’re home, but they’re nearly K’ing at a 25% clip on the year. Even though I wouldn’t consider this a prime spot, I think there’ll be enough Ks here to warrant the risk in tourneys.
Carlos Rodon, SP: $12,900 – I tend to throw the first start off the DL out with the bath water and I’m obviously doing so today. I’m simply here for Oakland’s K rate on the year, which is 25.4%. Much like the Nova vs Nola start, Jharel Cotton is the belle of the ball in this game, according to DFSBot. Basically I’m suggesting you can make an alternate dimension lineup for GPPs today and fare well.
Jedd Gyorko, IF: $9,000 – Wanna know why I love Coors days so much? Cuz it’s so easy to slide into other stacks that won’t get the hype. We all know a Colorado game can go off at any moment so let’s just say ‘Reds & Rockies bats are in play’ and move on, though I will point out that somehow no one got the memo that Scott Schebler and Raimel Tapia are playing at Coors today ($7,800 and $6,800, respectively). I’ll take a deal when it’s offered. Moving on…the Cardinals have been pretty mediocre all year and there’s nothing about today that would be any different than other of their ‘meh’ days…except they’re facing one of the weakest arms on the slate in Jeff Locke. Throw in some Tommy Pham and Randal Grichuk and you could have a mighty powerful mini-stack on your hands today.
Robinson Chirinos, IF: $7,200 – I love that FantasyDraft doesn’t force you to play a catcher for two reasons. One, because they’re catchers (duh) but two, it means unless they’re Buster Posey or Gary Sanchez, they’re unlikely to get talked about. I already mentioned Porcello’s flyball tendencies, so I might as well mention Chirinos being a consistent high FB% guy for his career and this year, he’s doing it at a 57.1% clip. The current league leader is his teammate Joey Gallo at 60%. Yes, I’m saying if you don’t wanna go Porcello, get these two in your LUs.
Deven Marrero, IF: $6,600 – If you wanna ride the hot stick of a bad baseball player, well…here he is! Marrero is raking, but for a limited time. Get in while supplies last! Of course, a Red Sox stack is in order with Martin Perez on the mound. Gimme some Mookie Betts, Chris Young, and even Dustin Pedroia to start and then play add on from there.
Aaron Judge, OF: $10,800 – On a Coors day, Judge will likely have a lower ownership rate than he should in all formats. Judge has a 245 wRC+ at home on the year and hasn’t really slowed down overall. Don’t expect a Judge pun here, there are too many out there right now as it is. In fact, the Yankees at home on the year have the highest team wRC+ in the league. I know, Judge has a lot to do with that, but a Yankees stack with some remaining lefty bats like Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Didi Gregorius isn’t a silly thing to do.
Khris Davis, OF: $9,000 – Davis is a peaks and valleys kind of hitter and right now he’s climbing to that peak with 4 HRs in his last 6 games and he has actually been one of the best hitters in baseball over the last 30+ days. Even if you’re rolling with Rodon in GPPs today, a solo rocket and a walk for Davis doesn’t damage you much…unless you don’t have him in your LU.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Other than expected wind factors – blowing out to right in Oakland while blowing in from right in Texas – there shouldn’t be anything weather related happening other than it’s getting hotter and the ball is gonna fly out further. I swear the ball isn’t juiced, says the MLB…over…and over…and over…and…
Doing Lines In Vegas
So, the best O/U line of the day is of course, COLvsCIN…but did you know the best odds for the day are a Rockies win at -180? Notice how I said ‘a Rockies win’ and didn’t bring up Hoffman? Yeah, today is not a pitching day as all but two total games have an O/U less than 9 and none of the win lines are exciting for us since we can’t start Strasburg. It’s a funked up day for pitching, but this is why I’m telling you, offense can be had outside of Coors. Don’t become part of the sheeple.