Top 20 1st Basemen for 2025 Fantasy Baseball

Are the top 20 1st basemen for 2025 fantasy baseball good? How do you define good? Is good definable? Are you Plato? What is a Plato? Any hoo! This post goes on for about 1.8 million words, so let’s dive in. Here’s Steamer’s 2025 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2025 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. The projections noted in this post are my own, and I mention where tiers start and stop. Subscriptions are up and running, and you can already get Rudy’s Draft War Room.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2025 fantasy baseball:

NOTE: All my 2025 fantasy baseball rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.

NOTE II: Free agents are marked as such and not yet projected. They are ranked for where they’re currently worth drafting.

NOTE III: Watch BDon and me discuss the 1st basemen rankings:

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Already went over him in the top 20 for fantasy baseball.

2. Bryce Harper – Already went over him in the top 20 for fantasy baseball.

3. Matt Olson – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Freeman. I call this tier, “When mom says we have top 1st basemen at home.” This is a nod to the meme “we have [blank] at home.” You say, “Mom, can we get cake,” and she says, “We have cake at home,” and the cake at home is some gross thing she made with margarine. That’s what happened to the top 1st basemen. You ask for the top 1st basemen and mom says you have top 1st basemen at home, and they are ugly. In the last few years, top 1st basemen have been aging and we had allusions (delusions) that other guys would grow into top 1st basemen and we’d be fine. Spencer Torkelson, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you. Alec Bohm, you think you can hit like 25 homers? Please. So, this is the top 1st basemen, but there’s serious issues with all of them.

As for Matt Olson, his issue is I rostered him last year and wanted to walk into the ocean for most of the season. He hit 29/.247 last year vs. 54/.283 the year before and I have to say that’s the world’s biggest divide. That’s bigger than Jennifer Grey pre- and post-nose job. There’s no larger divide. I say, “I can see 29/.247 from 54/.283,” and people laugh at me because there’s no way you can see across that divide. Someone who speaks numbers hears 54/.283 and nods, then I tell them 29/.247 and they say, “I literally have no idea what you’re saying. Are those still numbers you’re saying?” I put into ChatGPT how many times does 29 go into 54 and it said, “You’ve broken our model.” So, yeah, his last year was sucky. Braves were cursed by witches and whatnot, and if they’re healthy and Olson just has the slightest nudge towards a positive reclamation of his former self, then he should be okay. Do his numbers lean more 2023 than 2024? No, not really. It’s why this tier is a mess for a “top” tier. Olson had the lowest HardHit% of his career, worst HR/FB% and swung the same, so balls just weren’t jumping off his bat. Good-ish news is he should have 32-homer power and hit .255. In that lineup, it should mean 90/110 runs/RBIs, which pushes him in the top five 1st basemen. Hey, at least mom says we have top 1st basemen at home. 2025 Projections: 94/33/112/.254 in 606 ABs

4. Pete Alonso – Re-signed with the Mets. Or should I say resigned to re-sign with the Mets. MLB right now is this: “Hey, Dodgers, you want this player? No? Okay, hey, Yankees, do you want this player? Your poor? Wow, thought you were worth $12 billion, that’s too bad. Stupid inflation making $12 billion worth nothing. Okay, let me try and call the Mets.” If all three teams decline, then you’re either playing for the Pirates for forty-kay or you’re es oh el. “Forty-kay or Es-Oh-El” is actually the new collusion bible being touted by Jerry Reinsdorf that he sells door-to-door (being pushed in a wheelchair by his son, Jiminy). Did Curt Flood fight for “Forty-kay or Es-Oh-El?” He did not! But that’s where we are, so Pete Alonso went through the three teams and none of them bit for a few months until the Mets were finally guilted into re-signing him. This does more for Brett Baty’s fantasy future than it does for Alonso. I’m honestly not sure where Baty goes; I guess the minors, which sucks for his development, but his inability to hit an offspeed pitch was already damaging his development. 2025 Projections: 93/36/109/.247/3 in 591 ABs

5. Josh Naylor – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Guardians traded Josh Naylor for Slade Cecconi and I have to assume Slade Cecconi knows where the bodies are buried. Nothing else makes sense. I’d happily say Josh Naylor was too expensive for the Guards, but he was the same-ish as newly signed Carlos Santana. What is [five minutes after downing ayahuasca] going on? Maybe they thought Naylor was preggers and didn’t think it was their kid. It is ironic that his homer celebration is rocking a cradle and now it looks like he’s got a baby on board sign on his back. So, nailed him being a sleeper last year! High five me! No? Why? Oh, because he only had a solid season because all the 1st basemen around him weren’t great? Okay, fair enough. Last year, Naylor went 31/6/.243 and that was the 3rd best 1st baseman on the Player Rater. [bugs eyes] Oh boy. At a certain point, letting oneself go might catch up to him. He gained forty pounds and lost almost forty points on xBA and his Ks, while still good, went up. Maybe that’s why the Guards abandoned him. I don’t know. Here’s to him figuring out how he can stave off further losses and continue to rock the baby as he rounds bases, rather than have a baby in his stomach.” And that’s me quoting me! 2025 Projections: 81/28/95/.261/7 in 559 ABs

6. Freddie Freeman – Rest in “Omitted but considered” Peace, Joey Meneses. Fairly well, Brandon Drury. I remember you, Gavin, and I gave two Sheets! How long until Freddie Freeman is in the “Omitted but considered” graveyard is what he’s now up against. Oh, all players are eventually headed there, but Freddie Freeman’s timetable is a lot closer than, say, Vlad Jr. But how long is the question? I don’t think it’s this year, for what it’s Cronenworth, like what nearly happened to Paul Goldschmidt in one year. The “Always hits for a good average, even if the power and speed evaporate” profile does age at some point. Think back to Joey Votto. In some ways, that was the Goldschmidt profile too. I tend to think drafting Freddie Freeman (or any aging player) is a lot like musical chairs. At some point, the music is gonna stop and you’re gonna have no place to sit. He is coming off his worst season, BABIP way down (sign of aging), HardHit% down (same), and steals way down (dur). The lineup is still excellent, and if he can stay on the field for 150 games, he’s going to put up 85/90 runs/RBIs by just showing up. 2025 Projections: 83/20/86/.277/10 in 536 ABs

7. Cody Bellinger – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Paredes. I call this tier, “Round holes with my square peg thingie.” Hmm, that sounds weird. What I mean is there’s no top 1st basemen, so to try to find top 1st basemen, I might be trying to force some guys into that ranking who might not belong. One other note: Players in tiers are interchangeable and, since this tier is so big, it points to how iffy 1st basemen are. If there were clearcut “solid 1st basemen” vs. “meh, these guys could be good, I guess” there would be more tiers.

Here’s what I said this offseason, “Cody Bellinger was traded to the Yankees. That’s right, Belly in New York…ooh, I want deli. Can I get pastrami? Wait, not my Belly, but Belly Belly. Cody Bellinger! In the Big Apple! Speaking of which, anyone know how to make an apple bong?

Googling the marijuana laws of New York

[image or embed]

— Razzball (@razzball.bsky.social) December 17, 2024 at 2:21 PM

You’re good, Cody, they’re pretty liberal! Oh, Cody, more good news, the short porch! [Cody Bellinger imagining a porch with a low ceiling] “Whoa, is that to keep out Altuve?” That’s Cody Bellinger talking to himself. Cody Bellinger is endlessly fascinating, and not always in a good way. I nearly wrote a sleeper about him, but I just didn’t think anyone had the patience for me saying Cody Bellinger, former MVP and very famous player, was a sleeper. Seems kinda silly. He is being drafted a bit too low though, but that might change with his trade. There is an element of “What the eff are we going to get from him” though. If you look at his last two years, almost identical ABs and nowhere near the same stats. His HardHit% was 27.3 last year and that is hideous. I’d blame his shoulder injury from a few years ago in the playoffs with the Dodgers, but that reminds me of Shohei Ohtani, so I prefer not to do that. The shoulder injury does make it hard to not worry at all and pretend the move to New York fixes everything, but it could fix a lot. Up until this move, Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger were forever linked in fantasy. Why? I honestly don’t know. They really have nothing in common besides always being next to each other in rankings and ADP. Like always. Don’t look it up, it might not have been always. But it feels like always. Now they are sadly linked by “one has a recurring shoulder issue” and “one has an issue with his back.” Not sure which is worse, but they’re both equally less than ideal. Back feels more recurring. Recurringier? Yeah, that’s a word. With this trade, Bellinger gets the short porch and better lineup, so he moved up pretty significantly away from Yelich in the outfield ranks and, prior to this move, he was below Burleson here.” And that’s me quoting me! 2025 Projections: 104/26/81/.267/12 in 522 ABs

8. Spencer Steer – Is there any bigger sign that we need to shut down the port to top 1st basemen until we figure out what’s going wrong than Steer was the 7th best 1st baseman at the end of the year and went 20/25 — which is fine — but also hit .225, which is not fine. Mike Cameron is the 7th best 1st baseman? Um, what’s happening? On the bright side, his BABIP was .260 last year vs. .318 the previous season, and his HardHit% went up. The batted ball profile looks fine too. It’s a bit sloppy to just say he was unlucky, but it looks it and I’m ready to partake in sloppy seconds! 2025 Projections: 71/22/82/.259/26 in 566 ABs

9. Christian Walker – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Astros. First, Jon Singleton is suspended for hotboxing the batter’s box and now he’s bumped to the bench for a Christian. Y’all and your Puritanical values. Let my man smoke balls and joints! Balls ‘n Joints is also the name of my very bad mechanic. “Looks like you have a…” Long pull off a joint. “…car problem.” So, Christian Walker’s batted ball profile looks better last year vs. the year before (when he was on the surface better), and I trust the Astros as much as any team. Until the Astros make a terrible signing that doesn’t work out, I’m on board. Being for real: You gotta trust something in this lil’ snow globe we call the world. Look at Walker’s HardHit% and only that from 2023 to 2024: 40.4% to 48%. Yeah, last year wasn’t a bad year, and I currently see him being drafted at a nice discount.” And that’s me copying and pasting me! 2025 Projections: 83/34/95/.254/3 in 579 ABs

10. Triston Casas – I love, love, lurve this guy. Big fan, fan, furve. Big, big, burve fan? Meh, you know what I mean. Last year’s side injury has me so worried. I’m either all-in on Casas if his price is right or all-out. Hmm, realizing now that it’s hard to be all-in on a guy if you could also be all-out on him. Well, whatever the case, I love me some Triston Casas, but he has to stay healthy, and it’s a bit of a cop-out, but it’s impossible to say whether or not a guy is going to stay healthy. He can say he’s healthy and that only gets us so far. Guys lie, am I right, ladies? That Casas came back and hit seven homers in 39 2nd half games is incredibly promising (and five HRs in 76 ABs in Sept.) and I’ll be drafting him, as long as he doesn’t get pushed up too much in drafts. 2025 Projections: 87/30/91/.251 in 546 ABs

11. Yainer Diaz – Already went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2025 fantasy baseball.

12. Salvador Perez – Already went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2025 fantasy baseball.

13. Vinnie Pasquantino – Ay yo, Vinne Pasketti here, just doing my uze ding-donging and saying it in a sing-songy voice so it’s ding-dongy, ay yo. Ay yo, seriously, you ever have stuffed cannelloni? Mama mia! The weird thing about Pasketti is, and I might be making this up in my head, but he sounds like he should be a 30+ homer hitter and he is absolutely way more James Loney than that. “I a-Loney can fix it,” is a famous quote by Vinnie Pasketti. From a Mike Cameron reference in Steer’s blurb to James Loney, I might need to stop Remembering Guys. The good news is Pasketti makes a lotti contact. The less stellar news is he’s hit .247 and .262 the last two years. 2025 Projections: 83/21/93/.273/1 in 561 ABs

14. Alec Burleson – Already gave you my Alec Burleson sleeper. It was written by ChatGPT. 2025 Projections: 78/24/66/.287/6 in 503 ABs

15. Jake Burger – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Traded to the Rangers for three minor leaguers. I don’t need to squint too hard at Burger and see a poor man’s Matt Olson. Going into In ‘n Out and asking for an Olson, which is a burger without buns, but “No, not Animal Style. I don’t have money for lettuce either. I will go into your kitchen and you put the burger in my hands.” That’s off the menu and an Olson, and a poor man’s burger. See, a poor man’s Olson is a burger in your hands. I might’ve got lost in that analogy. Any hoo! Jake Burger is an easy-30-homer hitter who has hit .250 for three straight years. Oh, wow, he can sleep with Khris Davis’s wife now. If she permits it! (Yes, Mike Cameron to James Loney to Khris Davis, am I writing up rankings or an Immaculate Grid?) 30/.250 is more exciting in the Rangers’ lineup than the Marlins’ but not as much as the Braves’ lineup, hence why Jake’s a burger in your hands.” And that’s me–well, you know. 2025 Projections: 66/31/74/.250/1 in 529 ABs

16. Ryan Mountcastle – Orioles’ lineup is kinda hilarious. They have so much sexy, but somehow hit their most boring hitters in the middle. Wonder if there’s anyone we can get to investigate this Baltimore Baseball Club…That’s right, welcome back to BBC’s number one Detective Mountcastle for a whole new season of 15-ish homers and solving murders! [Mountcastle lets the monocle fall from his eye] Great Scott! They’ve moved in the left field fence! Full disclosure alert! I projected Mountcastle prior to news that the O’s were moving their fences in to around original dimensions with a slightly higher and longer wall. I gave him 18 homers then, and upped it five homers, then thought about how he hit 33 homers the last time the wall was near those original dimensions, so, yeah, this could be excellent for BBC’s favorite detective, and I nearly wrote a sleeper for him. By the by, I rarely wrote sleeper posts for 1st basemen in past years, because I thought you should draft a top one, but there are no top ones, so there’s that. 2025 Projections: 72/27/83/.273/3 in 504 ABs

17. Michael Toglia – Already gave you my Michael Toglia sleeper. It was written while asking a Sheep Counter how they stay awake. 2025 Projections: 77/33/86/.237/5 in 517 ABs

18. Isaac Paredes – Here’s what I said after he was traded to the Astros, “I heard Isaac Paredes was going to Houston and I thought about how that’s not bad for fantasy, because the Crawford Boxes are so good for his swing and Minute Maid, just in general. So, I started to craft a joke about how Isaac Paredes was gonna eat in Minute Maid, uh, drink? Eat oranges? Ya know what I mean, so I started to research Minute Maid and that’s when I found out the Astros are rebranding! Minute Maid is becoming Daikin Park, and I believe that was when I had my first boomer-screaming-at-kids-on-the-lawn moment. What the eff is a Daikin Park? Are you trying to say daikon? Like the effin’ radish? Did you go from the Juice Box to the Radish Box? What are we doing here?! I guess Isaac Paredes is gonna eat in his new home. Freakin’ radishes! So, Parades in Houston is a positive. It recovers his value from Tampa entirely. Paredes about to be a 45-homer hitter in Houston with his batted ball profile that is like a skeet shooter. Ya know, pull, pull, pull. Wrigley was 23rd for righties last year for homers and 29th for wOBA. Houston was 8th for homers and 8th overall for righties. Eat them radishes!” And that’s me quoting me! 2025 Projections: 81/31/77/.253/2 in 532 ABs

19. Alec Bohm – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Wong. I call this tier, “Impossible 1st basemen.” By the tier name, I’m referring to how these guys all seem to contain beef, but they are all imitations like Impossible Burgers that might keep you a little bit satisfied for a short period of time, but you’re gonna get to May, be lagging in power and be hungry for a Jake Burger or anyone with power. (Yes, I might’ve been eating a burger when I wrote up these rankings.)

As for Bohm, Alec…oh God don’t say it, don’t say it, don’t say it, don’t say–he Bohms me out. I figured Alec’s–oh God don’t say it, don’t–Bohms went from 13 to 20 in 2022 to 2023 meant last year he would take his homers to 25, but instead he went the other way to 15 homers. It’s hard not to see 13, 20, 15 homers in the last three years and think this year is 15 homers, plus or minus three. The batted ball profile is one I’ve learned to appreciate. Hard to imagine a better park for him, but he’s barely Lyle Overbay–Okay, Loney, Mike Cameron, and Overbay references? Are we ranking for 2010? 2025 Projections: 72/18/92/.282/5 in 550 ABs

20. Yandy Diaz – Could playing in a MiLB ballpark finally make the difference in Yandy’s home run output? Let me input it into my Convert to Steinbrenner Field calculator. Hmm, says here, “Yandy will be voiced by Larry David.” This calculator really doesn’t work. The problem with big-barreled Yandy (talking about his arms, not, uh, bat) is he is a worm killer. You can’t hit more homers if everything you hit is into the ground. 2025 Projections: 87/21/69/.291 in 546 ABs

21. Luis Arraez – Last year I tried Arraez on for sizaez in one league, and I ended up with lots of sigheaz. I did not enjoy rostering him. Death by a thousand 2-for-4, 1 run’s. 2025 Projections: 91/5/51/.322/10 in 617 ABs

22. Tyler Soderstrom – This is a bit of a flier-slash-sleeper. Things get rough for 1st basemen very shortly (if you don’t think they already have) so let’s pause for the cause, and the cause being a 1st baseman interesting to draft. Don’t think we know how the Athletics’ new park will play for sure, but it cannot be worse for BABIP with no more foul territory. Am I bubbling over with enthusiasm for Soderstrom? No, you’re thinking of Sodastream. He doesn’t have enough of a MLB sample to get fully invested in, but if you’re going to gamble on a guy, Soderstrom has 30+ homer power and could hit .250 with better BABIP. 2025 Projections: 63/27/71/.241 in 497 ABs

23. Nolan Schanuel – When you get 607 plate appearances and put up a line of 62/13/54/.250/10, I’m struggling to find a reason you should carry Schanuel, unless you’re trying to impress your girlfriend with your knockoff murse. 2025 Projections: 81/15/52/.267/11 in 531 ABs

24. Luke Raley – This tier isn’t just in the middle of this post it is also mid, as the kids say. You know what the kids never say? “As the kids say.” But for as mid as this tier is, Raley joins Soderstrom as guy who I nearly wrote a sleeper on in this tier. Raley has meh Ks and an absolutely incoming platoon, so I couldn’t do it. He does hit righties hard and is very intriguing for a daily league, where you can move him in and out. Not quite Kerry Carpenter level of He Be Rockin’ Righties, but close. 2025 Projections: 53/20/60/.252/12 in 416 ABs

25. Paul Goldschmidt – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Yankees, which felt inevitable. There is nothing the Yanks like more than a completely past-his-prime corner infielder. Brian Cashman, “Nah, I don’t think he’ll be Anthony Rizzo, Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, Chris Carter or Greg Bird. Think we might be able to get a 2022 Matt Carpenter year out of Paul Goldschmidt.” Off other people’s looks, “Ya know, when he was good for, like, 50 games.” So, I don’t think Yankee Stadium or their lineup is going to help him enough to revitalize his career. His peripherals have the standard look of the fading star. He might be good for counting stats, and won’t be as bad as Rizzo.” And that’s me quoting me! 2025 Projections: 76/20/83/.247/8 in 581 ABs

26. Connor Wong – Already went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2025 fantasy baseball.

27. Michael Busch – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Bell. I call this tier, “Mall kiosk selling blindspots.” If you’re at the mall, go over to Wicks ‘n Sticks and look for a kiosk out in front. You see it? Cool, it sells blindspots. Now if you buy one–Wait! Before you buy it! Ugh, you already did? Now you’re not gonna be able to find your way out of the mall. You have to live there now. Well, since you’re stuck there, buy yourself a blindspot for each of the guys in this tier because you’re gonna need it to be happy with them on your fantasy team.

As for Busch, was shortlisted for a sleeper post, but hitting 25 homers in a good season with zero speed and a .245 average only moves the needle so much unless you have a big enough blind spot. 2025 Projections: 71/24/77/.242/2 in 507 ABs

28. Nathaniel Lowe – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Traded to the Nats. I have a bone to pick with Nathaniel Lowe. If you go from Nate to Nathaniel, you have to increase your homers, not clock in with 17 and be like, “I’m good here.” More letters added for me to type, the more you have to make that worth my while. By the way, look at these 1st basemen: Have you ever seen so many 1st basemen who can’t hit 20 homers even with 600 ABs? It’s like the 1st basemen are all time travelers from the Dead Ball Era. Skeets McCutty gonna lead the league with 11 homers, then die of consumption or what?” And that’s me quoting me! 2025 Projections: 71/18/79/.266/2 in 531 ABs

29. Brandon Lowe – Intrigued by what my Convert to Steinbrenner Field calculator will say about Brandon Lowe. …hmm, says Rays’ owner will fire and rehire Kevin Cash three times this year. This calculator is really not working. Right field is shorter in their new park, so good for lefty pull power. The biggest problem with Lowe isn’t that he hit 21 HRs the last two years, but that he played on average 108 games. Lower back pain just doesn’t go away. Lowe might be more productive in the home games he plays in this year, but why would there be more games played? 2025 Projections: 60/24/66/.236/3 in 371 ABs

30. Andrew Vaughn – If this is the era of 17/3/.250 hitting 1st basemen, Andrew Vaughn is their King. If you want to hit 17 homers and steal only two bags and hit .245 to .255, you must first pay a tribute to Andrew Vaughn.  2025 Projections: 64/17/75/.251/2 in 577 ABs

31. Jeimer Candelario – You wearing your Jeimer-blindspot? Cool, now you can’t see what he hits vs. lefties or how he’s 31 or that he has a career high of 22 homers or his HardHit%. 2025 Projections: 63/18/66/.231/5 in 440 ABs

32. Jake Cronenworth – For what it’s Cronenworth, 1st basemen are thicc with 1st basemen who play a lot and yawnstipate. Just a giant conglomeration of Meh. 2025 Projections: 76/16/70/.238/6 in 556 ABs

33. Rhys Hoskins – I like to think Brandon Lowe and Hoskins seeing themselves in this tier and thinking, “How do we get ourselves out of a tier of 17-homer, 2-steal guys. We’ve got way more power!” We hear your concerns about your tier placement, but, unfortuntaely, we can’t process your request at this time. 2025 Projections: 57/25/71/.221/3 in 467 ABs

34. Josh Bell – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Nats, but why? I mean, great! Good stuff. But also, why? They have Brady House, Jose Tena, Juan Yepez, Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell now. Otherwise known as The Prosps and the Prospblocks. A collective that could be good, but will likely be bad. One good thing is Josh Bell never finishes a year with a team, so he’ll be solid through July then awful on a contender, how about the Twins?” And that’s me–there were a lot of 1st basemen free agents this year, huh? 2025 Projections: 58/20/68/.244 in 529 ABs

35. Spencer Horwitz – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end. I call this tier, “Sticking head out car window dressed as a dog.” The thrill you see on dog’s faces when they’re sticking their head out of the window? You want that, so you put on an Australian Shepherd’s body suit, stick your head out the window and…You’re not having any fun. You’re sweaty and wondering why you didn’t draft a 1st baseman earlier.

As for Horwitz, you’ll find Spencer Torkelson down below, and here’s Horwitz, which why I call this part of the 1st basemen rankings, Spencer’s. You can find one-time prospects and whoopie cushions. Over there is some black light posters but we don’t have any steals. Sorry about that. Here’s what I said this offseason about Horwitz, “Traded to the Guards, then to the Pirates. It’s a bit of a problem that half the league’s teams are actively trying to get worse. My guess is the Guards figure they can trade out Gimenez for (placeholder) until Travis Bazzana is ready in August of 2025 and lose only, like, two games and still make the second Wild Card or something very actuarial. As for fantasy, Horwitz is extremely meh with a side of bleh.” And that’s me quoting me! 2025 Projections: 64/14/68/.273/2 in 413 ABs

36. Deyvison De Los Santos – Already gave you my Deyvison De Los Santos fantasy. This post by me was before they traded away Burger (making the Rangers a bunch of Wimpys). Everything from the post is accurate, but the projections were changed. 2025 Projections: 59/23/64/.219 in 509 ABs

37. Christian Encarnacion-Strand – Almost write a sleeper post for CES too, but I tried not to do too many totally goofy pie-in-the-sky types this year for sleepers. Just more meat and potatoes, Hamburger Helper gonna help you find value. CES doesn’t have the meat yet, making him an Impossible 1st Baseman. Where’s the beef in Cincy? On top of the spaghetti and likely with Jeimer Candelario, sadly. Can’t trust CES to get anywhere close to 550 ABs to get real value. Maybe that changes in the spring, but for now, gotta be realistic. Hopefully come mid-March I move him out of the mids. UPDATE: With Austin Hays signing, it cuts into CES’s playing time, because it drives Steer to the infield like a cattle prod. 2025 Projections: 39/14/41/.241/4 in 342 ABs

38. Jonathan Aranda – When I was going through guys who could get a boost in Big Stein Field, Aranda’s name popped up. My big problem with him, and anyone getting a boost in the Rays’ new home is it’s the same depth as Yankee Stadium, so short porch in right so it helps who? Lefties? Guess who Kevin Cash loves to platoon? 2025 Projections: 47/14/53/.247 in 376 ABs

39. Ryan O’Hearn – He doesn’t fit into any tiers. A less interesting name for this tier would be, “Platooning or should be platooning.” While O’Hearn does platoon, he’s fine vs. lefties. But on the other hand — were we on hands? — O’Hearn should be replaced by at least five other Orioles, and could be. Then on the other hand — we were on hands! — they hit O’Hearn third and he’s been fine. He has no upside, seemingly nothing but downside, but returns more value than this ranking, if recent past dictates near future. 2025 Projections: 51/15/53/.254/3 in 366 ABs

40. Carlos Santana – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed by the Guards because it had been almost four years since he was there and they missed him. Aw, sweet. If I’m them, I change the team name to the Cleveland Supernaturals. So, Santana goes 23/4/.240 every year, more or less and, if anything, I’d expect less as he’s 39 in April.” And that’s me quoting me! 2025 Projections: 61/20/72/.227/3 in 519 ABs

41. Jonah Bride – [puts on wedding march] Here comes the Bride, all dressed in aqua teal. Last year in 71 games, Bride hit 11 HRs–[Mr. Prorater crashes through a wall] God damn it! I just stuccoed that wall! “Oh, my b. Hey, wanna here Bride’s prorated stats?” No! Before last year, Bride hit one homer in his previous 98 games, and has no speed. I wouldn’t get married to Bride’s upside. 2025 Projections: 56/7/52/.272/2 in 415 ABs

42. Jose Miranda – Sweet, he hit .284 and nine homers in a partial season last year. Oh, wait, that was in 400+ ABs? I can’t be reading Miranda right, but I am speechless. 2025 Projections: 52/13/55/.277/2 in 412 ABs

43. Jhonkensy Noel – Macy’s said tomorrow it’s the day after Thanksgiving again to honor Big Christmas. Trying to balance my crazy love for Honksy by reminding myself of my crazy love for Jordan Walker and Franmil Reyes and remembering I absolutely might have a type and need to chillax. He does have 40+ homer power, so explain that to whoever is saying Big Christmas only comes once a year. Tamping down enthusiasm simply because Christmas might only face lefties, which is downright Grinch-like. 2025 Projections: 31/15/41/.225 in 277 ABs

44. David Fry – Already went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2025 fantasy baseball.

45. LaMonte Wade Jr. – Guy is A) Not the son from Sanford and Son. B) An OBP beast. C) There’s no C. 2025 Projections: 53/13/47/.264/3 in 401 ABs

46. Oswaldo Cabrera – OCab? Please, I want OUber. Take it Highlights! You don’t want it? Oh, kay. I don’t know if the Yankees want OCab either. Feels like the kind of guy who is in a projected lineup until we see Spring Training lineups, then he’s benched and Yankees fans are saying to trade him for Tarik Skubal, or something equally realistic. 2025 Projections: 44/10/39/.253/7 in 321 ABs

47. Dylan Moore – Kinda guy that is impossible to draft, and you might never want to pick him up, but he will be in the top 500 for fantasy value at the end of the year because he has 30+ steal speed. Nay, as Fonzie’s horse said, last year he was nearly a top 300 player due to his 32 steals. SAGNOF never looked so AGNOF. 2025 Projections: 44/8/41/.203/26 in 381 ABs

48. Kris Bryant – Saw him projected for 113 games and it was the best laugh I had in a while. I didn’t know people were projecting guys for the entire length of their current contract. 2025 Projections: 41/10/44/.235 in 312 ABs

49. Gio Urshela – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Ath’s, which is how I see them abbreviated some places, which is so funny to me. Gonna start calling them the Ath’s so when Google’s AI steals my content they call them the Ath’s. Thall victories.” And that’s me copying and pasting me! 2025 Projections: 56/14/64/.266/1 in 471 ABs

50. Spencer Torkelson – This guy has never seen a pitch he couldn’t hit into a medium-depth fly ball. Maybe he grows into more homers vs. lazy fly balls, but he’s looking destined to be a 45-homer hitter in the KBO. 2025 Projections: 38/15/46/.215 in 304 ABs

Omitted but considered: Ty France, Matt Mervis, Juan Yepez, Enrique Hernandez, Ben Rice, Seth Brown, Jared Triolo, Billy Cook, Ezequiel Duran, Anthony Rizzo, Andy Ibanez, Brandon Drury, Kody Clemens, Pavin Smith, Cavan Biggio, Bryce Eldridge, Maurico Dubon, Justin Turner, Romy Gonzalez, Zach Dezenzo, Gavin Sheets, Rowdy Tellez, Mark Canha, Nick Kurtz, Tyler Locklear, Jac Caglianone, Connor Joe, Donovan Solano, Wilmer Flores, Jake Bauers, Ryan Noda, Jon Singleton, DJ LeMahieu, Nick Pratto, Jose Abreu, Joey Gallo, Troy Johnston, Elehuris Montero, Joey Meneses