Finally, we come to the end of the 2015 fantasy baseball rankings. (Can we start games already?) A little birdie told me we’re opening up our commenter fantasy leagues on Monday.  Then the little birdie pooped on my shoulder and I thought it was blue cheese and I put it on a cracker and– Wait, where was I?  So, the top 400 for 2015 fantasy baseball isn’t meant to surprise or astound.  If you’re surprised that, say, Steven Souza is ranked above Marlon Byrd, then you didn’t read the top 60 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball.  I forgive you, but does your never-proud father?  I don’t think so.  Save it for the therapy sessions!  Okay, you know that I like Souza more than Byrd, you know I like Javier Baez more than Jose Ramirez as seen at the top 20 shortstops for 2015 fantasy baseball, but you don’t know how I feel about where these guys fall in the bigger picture.  Is Baez above Souza?  So to show you where I think players fall in relation to each other in 2015 fantasy baseball drafts, I’m putting together the top 400.  This still needs to be taken with a grain of salt.  If you have a shortstop already and Baez is still on the board at pick 200, you don’t draft him if you see Souza and you need an outfielder, even though Souza is below Baez on this list.  So I might take someone at 200 over someone at 180?  Yes, every draft is different.  With the top 10, there’s almost no latitude.  With the top 100, there’s a decent amount of latitude.  With a top 400, there’s lots of latitude.  You taking someone at 185 is more or less the same as someone else taking someone at 235.  So if you see someone who’s ranked at 250th, but want them at 200, then do what you do.  Because of the length of the top 400, there’s no pithy comments with each name, but you kinda do need to know what I’m thinking for each name, so I advise you go over each position in the 2015 fantasy baseball rankings. The top 100 and top 400 is what I would have at my drafts, along with the top 20 rankings posts.  If I were drafting online, I’d also use the fantasy baseball tiers (Hitter Tiers/Pitcher Tiers) and the Fantasy Baseball War Room. (Hopefully the downloadable one is ready shortly.  This is out of my control, someone else fills out the Excel spreadsheet and I simply post it.  No one has filled it out yet this year.  *wink, wink, nudge, nudge, kazoo*  If you want to help your fellow Razzballers, you’ll take on this task.)  Finally, here is this top 400 for 2015 fantasy baseball without any of this jibber-jabbering.  Anyway, here’s the top 400 for 2015 fantasy baseball:

Download Table as CSV
Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output!

# Name Team ESPN Y! $ AB R HR RBI SB AVG IP W SV ERA WHIP K
 
  1. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!

    Nice, very nice. Now we’re armed and ready.

    How will this sexual assault charge affect Salazar’s…
    A. playing time?

    B. ADP /Ranking

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Tigres says:
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      No charges filed, per MLB.com report from yesterday…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante GALIC: Looks like he’s getting off…again…

      • Jay says:
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        @Grey: ZING!!…again!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Tadow!

  2. Baggiejohn says:
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    Thanks so much for this. It really does bring a little light into the grim, long winter nights.

    As a close personal friend of Queen Elizabeth (well, she lived down the road from me until recently) I don’t think it’s too presumptious of me to say … for services on behalf of fantasy gamers everywhere … and for promoting the noble ‘tache …

    Arise SIR Grey of USA !

    Which makes the cougar a Lady! Lady Grey ? Hmm, sounds familiar.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Baggiejohn: Ha! Can I get the noble title being from the Jersey of New?

  3. Csifu says:
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    There’s a mistake in Ryu’s projections. Saves should be 0, saves->ERA, ERA->WHIP, WHIP->K (probably).

    Thanks for the great work.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Csifu: Oops, thanks for the heads up, it’ll get fixed shortly

  4. Dr JAM says:
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    I’m new this year to the site
    Love it
    Been winning my league without this site, they are in trouble now.
    Can you send me a link to explain how to use the $ column, what it means?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Dr JAM: $ is for auction leagues

      • DR JAM says:
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        @Grey:

        I am slow, but I knew that.
        How do the values get negative? these seem low. You have an article about how those values fit into strategy

  5. PB&J says:
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    good good shtuff, Grey.

    Is there a trick to sort the list by CI or MI easily? Sorting like that would be helpful for the Hittertron, also.

  6. the swinging says:
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    I feel like not drafting a ss until the last round. Idk who to draft or where, and feel good about it.

    • Blue says:
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      @the swinging: I dunno if I’d go that far, but the position is so flat I can see punting to the mid rounds easy.

      • the swinging says:
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        @Grey: who r u thinking of landing at ss and where? Or is it that irrelevant u just take whoever falls late.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I went over shortstops in the top 20 SS post

          • the swinging says:
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            @Grey: I know I read it. Anyone growing on you? U have a must have guy at ss?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I like Santana

              • ashtray says:
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                @Grey: Even with that .400 BABIP from last year? Dude’s plate discipline is kind of shaky, too.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah a bit

          • the swinging says:
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            @Grey: I guess what I’m asking is about the SS tier u like to draft from.

            The tier is very big and starts with bogaerts and ends with owings

            Bogaerts is 80 somthing on the big board and owings is 170 somthing. So u like waiting for the back end of that tier? I’m confused because of how far apart they are on the overall list but are considered in the same tier at SS.

            Thank you.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              If you read my top 20 SS you know who I like

              • the swinging says:
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                @Grey: u list a tier u say is ur fav to draft from, but it’s huge and there’s a lot of room from… nevermind

  7. MattTruss

    MattTruss says:
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    Most wonderful day of the year! Thanks for doin what you do Grey. Eases the pain of 4 feet of snow I’ve gotten over the past two weeks.

    One inconsistency question for ya. You’ve got David Hale ranked at 393 here. In the top 100 starters, Mike Foltynewicz is in that spot in the rankings with that same stat line. Gotta think it’s Folty there over Hale in Coors…correct? Folty is one of the few things I’m excited for watching the Braves this year. Fol-ten-eh-vich….got it!

    • Cram It says:
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      @MattTruss: The Braves are trying to corner the market on Eastern Euros. Where’s the Joey Terdoslavich sleeper post?!

      • MattTruss

        MattTruss says:
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        @Cram It: Ha, no kidding

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @MattTruss: Oops, I was thinking Folty and wrote Hale, I’ll fix it shortly

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Grey: some of us deep leaguers got very screwed by that hale trade to COL. he was projected as starter at ATL (before folty trade)

  8. Cardfan says:
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    I like your hitter tiers and pitcher tiers. Anyway we can get this in a AL and NL Only format.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Cardfan: I don’t put them together, a fan of the site does…

  9. Cram It says:
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    Ah, thanks for the “Tiers” links. That’s the kind of list I like! You spelled Todd Frazier incorrectly, though I’m not one to quibble over tiny little spelling mistakes that may or may not drive me to scratch my left ear lobe until it bleeds. Nope, not this guy.

    • Wake Up says:
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      @Cram It: Leave your ear alone before I Ed Norton curb stomp your whole family!

      • Cram It says:
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        @Wake Up: Well that’s…that’s just….mean, Wake.

        • Wake Up says:
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      • GhostTownSteve says:
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        @Wake Up:

        That nice guy from The Honeymooners? I don’t remember that episode. Talk about “bang…zoom…”

        • Cram It says:
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          @GhostTownSteve: You don’t remember the curbstomping episode? It was the same one that Alice and Trixie got caught lezzing out on a bed of cocaine in. Hence the ensuing curbstomping spree by Ed. Naturally.

        • Wake Up says:
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          @Cram It: @GhostTownSteve:
          Am I the only one who remembers Larry David’s Honeymooners-inspired-garbage can-banging musical?

          • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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            @Wake Up: i wish i had even heard of it.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Cram It: I don’t do the Tiers, someone else does, but I can see if they can fix the spelling

      • Cram It says:
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        @Grey: I really don’t care about spelling, Grey. Just fucking around. I’m not Costarican…whatever that commenters name is.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, I can fix it I think later…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Fixed

        • The Harrow says:
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          @Cram It: he disappeared after not being quite against the Hitler rap from Whitest Kids You Know, off to fix the spelling errors of other comedy troupes that don’t make fun of famous racist dictators. or possibly other fantasy baseball message board wanders?

          • The Harrow says:
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            @The Harrow: that should read, “being quite against” not it’s opposite.

  10. Wake Up says:
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    Thanks again for all the hard work. You are the wind beneath my wings…which are going through an awful molt at present. You are the cool breeze that blows…well, you get it…
    Reese and I have our Hole Camels packed with ricotta cheese and we are ready for our six month trek…

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Grey: Woot woot!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Isn’t woot spelled with zeroes?

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            that’s n00b you’re thinking of

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              But boob is with oh’s?

          • Wake Up says:
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            @Grey: Not if it’s when you’re making an OTI train sound effect…if you’re talking 13yo girl texting, I have no idea…and I’ll pretend that you didn’t know too…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I have no idea!

          • Wake Up says:
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            @Grey: see above…you were asking the wrong dude…he prolly has a woot woot noob pic all lined up!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              He has a viral pic ready to go for this convo

              • J_FOH says:
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                @Grey: and now he wont post that pic because you talked about that pic, Sky is spiteful like that

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Why is that? Let’s analyze!

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
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                    I’m looking forward to this breakdown.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Me too!

                  • Wake Up says:
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                    @Grey: Must. Resist. Urge…

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Don’t. Resist. Ever.

  11. PK says:
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    Thanks, Grey! This puts a bow on the present that is your rankings. I’ve enjoyed reading your thoughts, and appreciate all the mileage your fingers have endured typing everything out. Yay!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @PK: No problem

  12. BitchesBeShoppach says:
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    Greys king, and they know it
    When he snap my fingers everybody says show it
    Greys hot
    and your not
    But if you wanna hang with him he’ll give it one shot
    Top that, top that
    You can give all that you can, but you will never top that!
    You can dream until you’re blue but you can never top that
    huh huh

  13. Tony Two Bags says:
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    Yesterday you said, “You should leave the top 100 with a 1st baseman, 3rd baseman, corner man, middle infielder, starter and two outfielders. ”

    If we’re talking auction draft, how much of a $260 budget would you put toward that chunk?

    • GhostTownSteve says:
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      @Tony Two Bags:

      Somewhere between 140 and 170 depending on if you lean towards a deep, low risk profile or more of a stars and scrubs approach.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Tony Two Bags: I’ll go over auction strategy… You should do around $90 on pitching

    • And Now the John Lovitz Dancers! says:
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      @Tony Two Bags: that’s a sweet drug dealin’ name, but when you get pulled over, don’t tell cops it’s your name (wink wink)

  14. Nico says:
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    Grey. I sold my soul to the Fantasy Baseball Overlord, and as a result, my fantasy baseball skills are forever prosperous. I think it happened like that. Either that or it was that time we met on Halloween and you were wearing a devil costume… I passed out on a couch and woke up with Razzball.com sharpied (not the dog) on my forehead. Luckily, someone (you) wrote it backwards, so I could read it the next morning in the mirror. Next thing you know, I’m winning fantasy baseball leagues. So, in summary, I’m forever indebted to you. I might be able to find some free time to update the War Room Download. Let me poke around and check out the Excel mechanisms. Also, I wrote a Haiku about updating the War Room:

    There’s much to do, but
    The work is already done.
    Worksheets are my jam.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Nico: You know someone emailed the War Room after I posted this, so I might have it, maybe you could help people when I post it though, yeah?

      • Nico says:
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        @Grey: Sure thing. If something changes on the War Room, let me know.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          You were writing for Draft Kings last year, right?

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            He wasn’t

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Did Nico not write for the site?

              • Sky

                Sky says:
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                He did, I know he wrote football; I don’t think he did any baseball.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, could’ve sworn I made him a user somewhere… Okay, I’ll wait for him to respond… So, how’s things?

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
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                    These things are good but those things…they could use some work. What about your things?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Same, same…Surprisingly, we have those things in common

                  • Nico says:
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                    @Grey: Ha! Go home Grey, you’re drunk! I did the Streamers for Football and did a War Room Download over there as well. Why the Fug is my avatar always messed up here?!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      You wanna just post the War Room here, so questions can go directly to you? I have it, but i don’t know how it works so I’m useless with questions regarding it

                    • And Now the John Lovitz Dancers! says:
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                      @Nico: i remember you.

      • Nico says:
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        @Grey: Apparently, we’re out of Reply space. I can post as long as it’s done already. If not, I’ll need a day or two to make sure everything works with the one I started updating. You can email me at [email protected] if it makes things easier.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’m going to email you now… Thanks!

  15. CH Smoot says:
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    I would have guessed Ken Giles would have cracked this list

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @CH Smoot: Yeah, he could’ve… He definitely will if Paps is traded

    • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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      @CH Smoot: if this list was for holds leagues he would’ve anyway

  16. BigDeal says:
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    Hey Grey,

    I’m in a dynasty league where closers are overvalued and even decent ones go for $15-25. With work and early sleep schedule, it can be difficult to beat everyone to the waiver wire.

    So I’m looking to draft a couple cheap RPs with high-upside and high chance of being a closer, and keep them for a few (2-3) years. How do you feel about Sergio Romo (regaining job due to higher K rate than Casilla?) and Sean DooLittle (returning soon and normal from injury?)?

    Who else would you recommend? Giles, Boxberger, and Soria are already taken. Watson/Walden?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @BigDeal: I don’t trust Doolittle or Romo… I’d recommend guys on this list

    • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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      @BigDeal: after guys on list Walden could be option, matheny would have to be str up stupid to keep rosey in there if he starts off repeating last year’s walk rate (which was i think the worst ever for a guy with that many saves)

  17. Jef with 1 f says:
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    Alright my man…here’s the deal…in my dynasty I can move miggy for J.up and the number one overall pick in a two round draft….who I would take Tomas with…so would you move miggy for Upton and Tomas…I’m leaning yes

    • Jef with 1 f says:
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      @Jef with 1 f: *where I would take tomas

      • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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        @Jef with 1 f: upton for miggy in a dynasty is arguably better for you alone.

  18. Bryce Krispie Treats says:
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    Wow, Ryu is going to have a pretty wild season with those projections! haha

    Thanks for the rankings. Always love this time of the year!

  19. GhostTownSteve says:
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    So I’m going to blow all my auction dollars on pitching this year I’m going to need some cheap offense. Here’s a team (sans catchers) of guys you like inside 200 that NFBC currently has going outside 200. Your ranking followed by NFBC ADP and what I think they’ll fetch at auction

    1b-Vargas 168, 260, $4
    2b-Schoop 157, 342, $1
    ss-J. Ramirez, 177, 354 $1
    3b-Castellanos, 172, 246 $5
    CI-Headley, 155, 220, $6
    MI-Gennett, 175, 268, $3
    OF1-K. Davis, 135, 202, $7
    OF2-Arcia, 150, 222 $6
    OF3-Souza, 166, 277 $3
    OF4-Saunders, 132, 304, $1
    OF5-Dom. Brown, 206, 320 $1
    Util-Gyorko, 116, 223, $5

    So that’s a $46 offense assuming two $1 catchers, freeing me up to spend up to $216 on pitching. Should have a nice staff. Actually if you go in there and replace Castellanos with say Arenado (20,60,$20), Headley with Bogaerts (81, 157, $10) and Dom. Brown with Myers (82,151, $10) you’d add $34 in salary so that would give you an $80 dollar offense that looked like this:

    Chirinos
    Salty
    Vargas
    Schoop
    Aranado
    Bogarets
    Gennett
    K. Davis
    Arcia
    Souza
    Saunders
    Myers
    Gyorko

    And $20 per pitcher to spend…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @GhostTownSteve: I like all of those hitters to varying degrees… I think they have major risk attached though

      • GhostTownSteve says:
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        @Grey:

        So does Miguel Cabrera…

        I think my point is that there’s some cheap hitting that isn’t that far away from the expensive hitting.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Agreed, and you grabbed guys that I wrote sleeper posts on so you know I like them… But the difference between Schoop and Pedroia is more than name value (for one example)…

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: height?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Not especially

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              At least I don’t think… I think Schoop’s tiny (I could be wrong)

              • GhostTownSteve says:
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                @Grey:

                Schoop is a beast, dude. He’s like 6’1″ 220. I think I remember seeing that his avg HR distance and FB distance were solid.

                Yes there’s a difference between Pedroia and Schoop, but c’mon…Pedroia doesn’t have risk? You’re the king of Pedroia has risk. Pedroia is going to cost you $15 bucks. Schoop is going to cost $1.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, I forgot what he looked like size-wise… His bombs do ring a bell though…. Pedroia has risk, definitely does, but I’m just saying there’s a reason why there’s a difference in price… Don’t get me wrong (and prolly why that was a horrid example), I’m not drafting Pedroia, but one guy is slotted into the top 3 of a great lineup and one guy is batting in the bottom third until he can hit his way out of there…

    • TheTinDoor

      TheTinDoor says:
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      @GhostTownSteve: Why?
      Best case scenario is that you hit on all your pitchers and get 60 points from pitching. But you’ll be far ahead of everyone in most categories, which is wasted value. Meanwhile you have to hope you ALSO hit on all your hitters, or you’ll be so far behind in those categories, you’re toast.

      If the best case is a bunch of extra stats that don’t lead to more points….yeah, not a fan.

      • TheTinDoor

        TheTinDoor says:
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        @TheTinDoor: Don’t mean to sound so negative. You can/should target cheap hitters, but I’d be inclined to use that value to spend more on top tier hitters. Or even a Kershaw/Sale/Felix uber-ace, if you’re inclined to spend more on pitching than others. But don’t go crazy.

    • Mike says:
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      @GhostTownSteve: Why would you do that. Grey has always went after hitting first, because there is so much pitching available.

  20. Hawk says:
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    10 team, 5×5 Keeper league question.

    Matt Kemp +
    (Arrieta or Ventura or Alex Wood or Tanaka) +
    (Archie Bradley or Taijuan Walker)

    for

    Corey Dickerson +
    (Dee Gordon or Manny Machado)

    I have a lot of power so a guy like Gordon really fits well.

    Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Hawk: Dickerson, Gordon

  21. chrisL says:
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    5×5 scoring: 12 team keeper league. OBP instead of AVG, otherwise the same. Keep 5 only with no loss of draft picks:

    Michael Brantley
    Ryan Braun ?
    Robinson Canó ?
    Todd Frazier
    Jonathan Lucroy
    J.D. Martínez
    Hanley Ramírez
    Anthony Rizzo
    Addison Russell
    Danny Santana
    Jorge Soler
    Ryan Zimmerman

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Brantley, Cano, Frazier, Hanley, Rizzo

  22. S.H says:
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    Hello Grey, I am in a head to head points league, with 40-50 player keeper, 450 cap, I am new in the league, so the team kinda blows, I have chance to pick up Joey Bats in a deal for Ordorizzi and Moncada, that being said I figure I can’t really win for a few years , should I take Bats, and hopefully trade him for a bigger return, or hope that Moncada can walk on water and bring me many titles my way.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Take Bats

  23. Will says:
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    Grey, you’re a prince.

    You mentioned in a previous post that you should aim to get ~130 saves… if you have SV+H, what would be a reasonable target? 200? It always seems much harder to get holds because there are a lot more “the guys” than there are “the guy” for saves. I’m still not going to draft hard for it because HAGNOF!, but any thoughts on that?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      How many pitching slots?

  24. sasquatch sluggers says:
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    Grey..Not trying to bug you too much or anything. What a treasure chest of wealthy info. But just asking what your strategy is on draft day. For example, do you have a seperate list of players you kind of HAVE to own that you will reach for?( Segura, Archer etc) How about a list of players you would never own? I know you won’t pick pitchers till the Samardzija spot.
    I know this is a lot to ask but I’m kind of new to this and ANY of YOUR OWN wisdom is gold on draft day. Don’t want to be confused in the midst of a draft again. Anything would be so appreciated. Thanx so much!!

    • Fungazi says:
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      @sasquatch sluggers: I know I do exactly what you are talking about. I take a rankings list and start crossing off any names of players I specifically do not want no matter the rank, then general positions like catchers and RP early, or crummy OF’s late. If a player drops far enough during the draft, it will be painfully obvious and you decide on the spot when to act on that.

      Any players I know I want I bump up by 2 rounds.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’ll be going over draft strategy in the coming weeks… If you go over the top 20 lists, you’ll see the guys I want

  25. @Grey Thank you as always. You’re super talented and I love that I found you guys last year.

    My setup before my question:
    After reading through your rankings I recall you saying: Draft players that have proven themselves year over year, and not the shiny new toys (Dickerson, Arenado, Springer, etc.). They are unproven and may not break out until age 27 or even 30 (Bautista). This is me paraphrasing you. You also say at the end of the day, draft the team you want.

    My question:
    You have a lot of heart for the young—who’ve shown flashes of brilliance but should not be considered proven (Arenado, Wong, Dickerson, etc). So which is it? Draft sexy or draft proven.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! Good question, it’s a fine line between the two… Maybe I’ll write a post on that… Short answer is players’ primes are in their mid-20s, so you have to go young-ish

      • @Grey: Thanks for the response! It may not be fun to draft Adam Jones, but it might be the smart/safe thing to do, at least at the start. I personally can’t draft him this year because I drafted him last year and I hate doing that. I think you said something similar. But I did spend $23 on Will Myers last year (a sexy 2014 target) and he blew chunks. Could make for a good post. Thanks again

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem… Yeah, I have multiple leagues, so I try to diversify, for better or worse

        • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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          @American Dreams: to be fair, Grey’s had adam jones higher than nearly all sites over last 2-3 years.

  26. Jay says:
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    My keepers in 10 team league are:
    Stanton, Puig, Upton, Arenado and Sale

    I have an oppty to get Rendon, but It may cost me Sale and Arenado. Do i do it? I would then keep rendon and Scherzer.

    • Jay says:
      (link)

      @Jay: also have Freeman or Dee Gordon as a keeper option. either of these two over Scherzer?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sounds decent

  27. Corey says:
    (link)

    When do you guys like to schedule your draft? Availability of the owners will obviously dictate, but this year I was thinking two weeks before opening day. Most of the competitions for roster spots and inuries will have gone down by then, with a couple more weeks left to chance.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      As late into the spring as possible

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @Corey: Always as closest to opening day as possible.

      • Flowers misses his old glasses, but he's ok tho says:
        (link)

        @Cram It: i’d like to even hear one reason why this isn’t so. It’d have to go something like
        “I’m the comish and i won’t get internet connection for at least a few weeks before april 5th”, or “i’m the comish and i like having less complete information about roles/injuries/trades and everything else”

  28. Bodacious Taters says:
    (link)

    Izturis have any value this year ?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nah

    • goodfold2 says:
      (link)

      @Bodacious Taters: in 30 team leagues where any at bats do.

  29. Jon says:
    (link)

    Would you deal Tulo for Bogaerts and Gerritt Cole in a medium-sized keep forever?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I could see it

  30. the swinging says:
    (link)

    I have some options in a 12 team keeper league (with OPS as 6th cat). I can sign for rizzo, brantley, dickerson, frazier rounds 1-4.

    Im curious your thoughts, hypothetically in a 12 team redraft would you consider that a good start?

    Thx.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Solid core of guys… Could be better, but could be worse too

  31. M says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey, thanks so much for the great advice. Can you help resolve a gentleman’s debate regarding keepers? (6x6roto) Each team has to keep 10 guys for under $135 and the total salary cap is $300 per team. Is Team A or B better off for 2015, and how close is it?

    Team A has:

    Big Papi $20
    D.Gordon $7
    Machado $6
    Puig $11
    CarlosGomez $20
    Ozuna $6
    Kluber $7
    A.Wood $23
    CrushDavis $23
    Alcides Escobar $11

    And B:
    Lucroy $18
    LaRoche $9
    Altuve $21
    Nelson Cruz $18
    Arod $1
    King Felix $36
    Gerrit Cole $6
    Wei-in Chen $11
    Roark $6
    Brad Miller $8

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      A is much better… B’s a bit of a mess

      • JeF With 1 F says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Yeah i was going to say its not close…A is the better team.

      • M says:
        (link)

        @Grey: thank you sir!!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  32. JeF With 1 F says:
    (link)

    Your rankings are my Bible…thanks for all your work homeboy

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      No worries, F

  33. Chase says:
    (link)

    Why is Henderson Alvarez in the 400s Grey?

    • goodfold2 says:
      (link)

      @Chase: curveball there, usually it’s “why is so and so not in this high of a ranked section”

  34. Fastpitch says:
    (link)

    V. Mart to have surgery on his knee. Detroit news.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      That’s too bad

    • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
      (link)

      @Fastpitch: projected time 4-8 (which seems light to me)

  35. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
    (link)

    I think that Cecil would make a fine donkeycorn if the Jays let him close, but it seems like they’d rather keep him in a setup role. We’ll see if they pull the trigger on a Papelbon deal. K-Rod is still out there too.

    On the other hand, it might be interesting to watch Broxton try to close out games in ’15 in Miller Park. Major brain freeze alert there.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, closers will change from now until April… Broxton is a flippin’ mess and I think the Brewers realize this

      • J_FOH says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Broxton is the perfect 8th inning guy, I still think he never recovered from the Matt Stairs incident and will always being seeing shadows in the 9th

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          We’re sure that was Matt Stairs and not John Kruk?

    • J_FOH says:
      (link)

      @Big Magoo: damn you for using donkeycorn, you know how i feel about the loss of those terms. Dont confuse the new readers

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
        (link)

        @J_FOH: Just keeping the classic terms alive for the old guard. The new readers can just disregard them.

        • birrrdy! says:
          (link)

          @Big Magoo: Bring back Donkeycorn!!!

          • J_FOH says:
            (link)

            @birrrdy!: let smokey know

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
            (link)

            @birrrdy!: It never left for me

      • birrrdy! says:
        (link)

        @J_FOH: Sincerely,
        Sparky Anklebiter

      • And Now the John Lovitz Dancers! says:
        (link)

        @J_FOH: even if somebody didn’t know,the sheer volume of ain’t Smokey’s terms would suffice.

  36. Jay says:
    (link)

    Drop vmart in the rankings? Knee surgery.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      He’s already low in my rankings, too bad others may not draft him now

      • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
        (link)

        @Grey: oh they still will, probably higher than your rank even now, and later be on here whining about how “unlucky” they got that an ex-catcher of that age didn’t “come back strong”, and all the “indicators” were there that he’d repeat (almost of course nobody’s that insane) last year’s stats on a per at bat basis (they knew of course that he’d be out a small amount of time)

  37. fromagemacabre says:
    (link)

    Grey you saucy morsel of faux anglo-saxony, I’m a little confused about the starting pitching IP and / or K stats in your rankings. Quick look shows over 20 starters with 9+ K/9 and another 40 or more starters between 8 and 9 K/9. Last year there were 14 starters at/above 9 K/9 and another 16 from 8 to 9 K/9. In both 2012 and 2013, there were 27 starters at or above 8 K/9 (versus your 60). League-wide increase in Ks can’t be the explanation … can you enlighten me? Mercy buttercups.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I projected each pitcher on their own… If there’s more 9+ k/9, that’s the way it came out, wasn’t my goal…

    • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
      (link)

      @fromagemacabre: what you said “couldn’t happen” i.e. leaguewide increase in K’s, is EXACTLY what’s happening (baseball forecaster’s got a study claiming that the strikezone (specifically the lower part) has been growing, (fast!) in last 3-5 years, at least)

  38. Timbo says:
    (link)

    Grey! In an OBP league where we can keep guys as long as we want, would you trade Donaldson straight up for Arenado?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nah

  39. darkness says:
    (link)

    Do anyone feel any concern with Cory Dickerson’s splits? Normally they do not bother me too much (especially with younger players as Grey has mentioned), but his are crazy. Here are his career splits avg/obp/ops

    Home vs LHP: .246/.316/.751
    Home vs RHP: .373/.426/1.159
    Away vs LHP: .224/.274/.602
    Away vs RHP: .250/.296/.700

    I like Dickerson as well and think he has a solid chance to meet your overall projections, but looking at these splits I don’t know if I would start him with confidence outside of home games against RHP. He improved last year against LHP and on the road, but was still basically an average outfielder outside of Home vs RHP games. I would expect his splits to even out to some extent, but it makes me hesitant to keep him in my league where we keep 5 players.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      He improved last year and can continue to improve… He doesn’t come without some risk…

    • goodfold2 says:
      (link)

      @darkness: want to see something worse, look up blackman’s.

  40. Dennis says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,

    Great stuff as always!!

    I’m in a keeper league, and can only keep 3 Bats, 3 Arms

    Can’t decide on my pitching keepers. Out of these five, which three would you keep? And you can keep them for as long as you want.

    Kluber – Definite keeper
    Gerrit Cole
    Zack Wheeler
    Carlos Carrasco
    J. Samardzija

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Kluber, Cole and Carrasco

      • Dennis says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Was leaning that way…thanks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  41. Ra'ball al Ghul says:
    (link)

    So since VMart tore his meniscus does that finally move him into the top 100?? Because he belongs there, with Mauer. I would not want to tear my peniscus.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha! I wish he waited until April to tear it so I could’ve written an overrated post on him

  42. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
    (link)

    I was planning to ignore Vmart (figuring my leaguemates would take him well before I would), but in light of the surgery, where would take him? I’m thinking he could be an interesting DL stash…

    Thanks! These rankings are my security blanket when I find myself huddled in a corner muttering WET TAIL to myself during drafting.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      He’s ranked where I would take him as of right now

  43. GhostTownSteve says:
    (link)

    Obviously I’m not taking Schoop over Pedroia all things being equal. I’m just still really feeling the lack of bankable offense outside the top 10 where the risk profile and the production of the top pitchers seem to separate themselves.
    Here are the hitters outside the top 10 in adp:
    Altuve, Encarnacion, Rendon, Jones, Tulo, Rizzo, Posey, Braun, Brantley, Ellsbury, Donaldson, Hanley, Beltre, Puig, Harper, Frazier, Martinez, Freeman, Marte, Gordon, Kemp, Springer, Hamilton

    Risk risk risk risk. Who are the guys you’re taking to the bank there?

    I know you like Rendon and Marte. and Jones, maybe Puig a little. But if you’re caught in a section of the draft where you can’t get at those guys who do you grab? And are they really that much better than Scherzer, Sale, Bum, Stras, Kluber or Price? Which group feels more likely to grossly underperform ADP?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Those pitchers are better than some of the guys you mention… I’m not touching Martinez, Braun, Kemp, Brantley, Freeman where they’re going but that’s quibbling… Why I’m taking hitters, and I’ll find ones in the top 30 is because I can take pitchers later… I think your hitter exercise fails to point out there’s a ton of pitchers later…

  44. GhostTownSteve says:
    (link)

    Like even in your own rankings. You like Brantley at 24 with a 87/17/92/19/.301 and Blackmon at 104 with a 79/15/60/20/.285 slash.

    Is that really 80 picks worth of differentiation? Is it really not worth taking Kluber, Price, Stras et al?

    The next pitcher off your board is Matt Shoemaker. You’ve got Kluber with close to 100 more K’s projected than Shoemaker. Huge difference.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Brantley and Blackmon have other differences beyond the numbers… I’m not drafting Brantley either… Kluber and Shoemaker is a huge difference… But Kluber’s going in the 2nd round, you’re not getting him…

      • GhostTownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Kluber’s NFBC ADP is 30. Brantley’s is 17.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Gotcha

  45. GhostTownSteve says:
    (link)

    Or how about Beltre at 22 versus Sandoval at 96?

    Beltre: 86/22/97/1/.297
    Sandoval 71/21/92/2/.304

    When the tradeoff is Kluber vs Harvey and his 7 wins and 150 Ks?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Right, but Beltre has done it for ten years and Sandoval for one…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Here’s a real world example… Last year I got Kluber around 200 overall in Friends and Family… This would be the best I could hope for in the new world order of abundant pitching… Unfortunately, I had Prince, Gyorko, Zimmerman and Wieters so it didn’t matter… There were decent pitchers on waivers in this 15 team league, but there was no Prince or others replacement…

      • GhostTownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Yes but…think how good your pitching would have been had you taken Kershaw or The King in the 1st round AND had Kluber. AND, Albright…AND. You need The King and you need to hit on your Klubbers. There are decent pitchers on waivers in 15 teamers but I’m in those leagues. You get the Tom Kohlers of the world. Acceptable. What about CJ Cron? Or Chisenhall. Or Garrett Jones? Or Plouffe? Surely those guys are Kohler equivalent.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          The Cron, Jones, Chisen, Plouffes kill your team… Yeah, I could’ve had Kershaw instead of Princed, but then my pitching would’ve been superlative crazy and where would I be? Trading pitching in a league where no one will trade for pitching because it’s so abundant?

          • GhostTownSteve says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            How did you finish in pitching in that league?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              I had Teheran and Cobb, did totally fine… Hurt on saves, but my offense was a shizzshow…

              • GhostTownSteve says:
                (link)

                @Grey:

                Were you shooting for “fine”? And my point is, offense=safe? I know that is obnoxious and not fair. Sample size.

                You got 335 Ks and 24 wins out of Teheran.

                Yes you can win in many different ways, but the whole point of all this noise is can you give yourself a slight edge? Is there an optimal play. Nobody can predict a win in a single league. We’re looking for what is the slight edge if you play an infinite number of leagues. I’m trying to point out that maybe the strategic landscape has slightly, ever so slightly shifted. That’s all. Change or die, as they say.

                And this coming from a guy who was right with you for a decade. I used to wait to pick 150 in a 15 teamer to take a pitcher.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Offense wasn’t safe in that draft, that’s for sure… I hear ya, I think there’s something to what you’re saying, but it’s not meshing with everything I know… I do understand the idea that if pitchers are safer, than draft pitchers… It just doesn’t jive with there’s pitchers in the 15th round, just take them…

                  • GhostTownSteve says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey:

                    The leap you have to make is that there are pitchers in the 15th round so get them, but get the ones at the top of the draft too because there’s not much difference between the Robbie Cano you take early and the Gennett you take late. You can build an offense late. You always said you’re good at spotting late pitching, but you’re good at spotting late hitting too. Brantley was a brilliant call last year.

                    • J-FOH says:
                      (link)

                      @GhostTownSteve: Im going to take a very simple and probably poor stab at this. There are always late quality arms to own, it happens every year. Probably more so last year than the previous years. But a big bat from the free agent pool is a rare prize that doesnt always surface. You have your EE and Joey Bats which are great but not as common. The trend is boringball but it is what it is. Some people like to insure themselves by grabbing a top arm, which is fine in my book because they want to avoid loss in case they miss out on the up and coming arms, which I pointed out happen every year, but that bat will not be there. One of the unfortunate side effects to the glut of pitching and poor hitting is it feels like you have to draft with more ceiling on your mind because the floors can start to look very much the same. …or some BS like that

                    • GhostTownSteve says:
                      (link)

                      @GhostTownSteve:

                      See below bottom of the comments starting new thread.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Thanks! Yeah, it’s possible, I’m just saying you look at all the Matt Dominguez types late and you (me) want(s) a hitter way before that…

  46. Mostsuckass says:
    (link)

    I totally understand your logic about ranking catchers low, and I also understand that batting average and counting stats are hard to project. But man, Jonathan Lucroy seems awfully low at 259. If I saw him sitting there a hundred spots earlier (and I know he won’t last that long, so probably the point is moot), I’m certain I’d take him.

    • Mostsuckass says:
      (link)

      @Mostsuckass: Aside from this and some minor quibbles here or there, though, this is an absolutely great top 400. My own draft sheet won’t look much different from this. Great work, Grey!

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        No problem

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Just don’t take him when you should take someone else…

      • Mostsuckass says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Good point. I wouldn’t take him if I saw a pitcher I really liked at that spot, for instance.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yup

  47. GhostTownSteve says:
    (link)

    Another pass from the rankings. 15 teamer and you’re in the #3. You get pick 3, 28, 33, 58, 63 and 88

    In one league you take Abreu, Upton, Puig (per your rankings at 3,28, 33) and Lester, Zimmerman and Cobb at 58, 63, 88

    In the other you take Kershaw, Kluber and Price (all available at those slots per ADP). And then you take Arenado, Pence and Ortiz.

    Offensively (your projections) the high pick team gives you 263/83/277/27
    Team 2 gives you 244/76/290/16

    Team 1 gives you 530 R+RBI. Team 2 gives you 534. You get 7 homers and 11 bags (SAGNOF) with team 1. Averages are close.

    Team 1 gives you 530 Ks. Team 2 gives you 723.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I think you can win with that team… Del Dalton did something similar last year in Friends and Family and competed until the end (did better than me)… But on the other hand, Pinaowski did win (or maybe came in 2nd) and didn’t draft any starters…Not one. He won saves, ratios and all hitting categories… Goes back to you can do a lot of different things, and win… The key to me is what “feels” the safest… Abreu, Upton, Puig, Lester, Cobb, Zimmermann feel safer than Arenado, Pence, Ortiz and those SPs….

      • GhostTownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        There’s Abreu’s 2nd half, Upton in Petco, Lester coming off a career year. Risk.

        And I am going by your projections. Presumably you’ve built the risk into your projections. These are the numbers you’re drafting from. 7 homers and 11 bags or 200 Ks?

        How much is your bias creeping in to your feelings of safe? Kershaw and Price feel safe as damn houses.

        Be interesting to see what Pianowski’s first 3 picks were.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I had Alex Wood, Kluber, Teheran, Cobb… More than fine, on starters…. I couldn’t have went more wrong with offense… I forgot Wil Myers too… I had a 15 out of 15 ERA, 11 in WHIP and 8.5 Ks (partly due to poor relievers)… Pianoski drafted Miggy, Pedroia, Choo, Aroldis with the first four picks…Then about 7 closers and no SPs…

          • GhostTownSteve says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            So even though he went a gung ho offense strategy, he got two piles of garbage and a disappointment in the first three rounds and still dominated? Imagine his team if he had opened Kershaw, Hernandez, Scherzer!

            My guess is he found the Dickerson, Rendon, Altuve, Fraziers of the world.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              He nailed Nelson Cruz (12th) and Donaldson (8th) and a few others… (Oh, and his 5th pick was Mauer — yikes)

              • GhostTownSteve says:
                (link)

                @Grey:

                Things that make you go hmmmmmmmmmmm.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Hehe, yup

    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
      (link)

      @GhostTownSteve: i’ll try it again, go look at ATL vs SD’s division vs home parks vs team offenses last year. ATL is not a good place to hit, and it’s division is worse overall for road games for hitters than SD is. What chance do you really think upton’s 2015 isn’t upped with his new lineup at SD compared to 2014 ATL? Even if you don’t actually agree with me don’t be a “oh no SD kills hitters”, as last year’s ATL killed hitters (and they were BETTER hitters than SD’s)

  48. RipRock says:
    (link)

    We get 3 keepers in last years draft spot (after rd 7), if picked up they are rd 13. I know I am keeping Rendon @ 21 What say you for 2 others?

    Rusney rd 13
    Seager rd 13
    Britton rd 13
    JD Martinez 13
    Iwakuma 9
    Harvey 19
    Carrasco 27

    Has to be Carrasco and Harvey right?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Rusney, Carrasco

      • RipRock says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Thanks for your input

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  49. UL's Toothpick says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey, when you cover strategies make sure to include your take on FAAB. Interested in your approach.

    List rocks. My strategy, is 4 hitters in a row and targeting Donaldson in R2 and Arenado in R4.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nice! No problem

  50. the swinging says:
    (link)

    Grey, in general where do u look to for ur first closer?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      120 ish

    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
      (link)

      @the swinging: last year you could’ve got k-rob in maybe half or more than that yahoo’s at that spot.

  51. David Bowies Nephnew says:
    (link)

    Why do you rank Salazar over Stroman? Side by each, with the Stro seemingly having better stats.

    I assume(ass out of u and me) you have a computer machine you use to evaluate so many got damn players.

    Just wonder what its ingredients are. Do you consider a ‘player’s potential’ variable to your equation? cause otherwise the ranking don’t appear to make sense.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      There’s other things happening there than just stats…

      • David Bowies Nephnew says:
        (link)

        Really? You don’t use an equation ……lets say after the top 130over all or so?

        Coo.

  52. GhostTownSteve says:
    (link)

    Hi JFOH…welcome to the bottom

    I have a homework assignment for you. Yes I’m a tw*t.

    Do this for me because you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink…

    Open up the Razz player rater and scroll through from players 1-100. Based on your own assessment, just make an unscientific tally. Go tell me how many SPs you find in the top 100 that you would not have expected to finish as high in the rankings as they did and also the number of offensive players you’re surprised finished as high as they did. Just make an old fashioned back of the envelope four lines and slash tally. Ideally you’ll do this literally on the back of an envelope. And then come back here and give me your total

    • GhostTownSteve says:
      (link)

      @GhostTownSteve:

      Ok…I did my count. Let me know when you’re done.

      • GhostTownSteve says:
        (link)

        @GhostTownSteve:

        Here’s my list:

        Hitters 29: Brantley, Vmart, Abreu, Altuve, Cruz, Rendon, Frazier, Donaldson, Blackmon, Dozier, D. Gordon, Dickerson, Seager, Duda, Carter, Werth, Alexi Ramirez, LaRoche, JD Martinez, Melky, Byrd, Ozuna, Harrison, Span, Gardner, Yelich, Hunter, Revere, Morneu.

        Pitchers 10: Cueto, Kluber, Lester, Teheran, Britton, Richards, Arieta, Hughes, Roark, Ross

        Tell me again how it’s so much easier to find pitching.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          But all you need is pitchers, you don’t need positions…

          • GhostTownSteve says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            Look again, Grey. Look at all the top performers who came from nowhere on offense versus the pitchers who came from nowhere. Late offense way overperformed.

            And then go back and do the opposite. Count the offense high drafts the underperformed versus high pitching that underperformed. Expand your mind, Neo.

            It’s not easier to find late pitching. It’s a false premise.

            • GhostTownSteve says:
              (link)

              @GhostTownSteve

              The majority. MAJORITY of the top offensive performers came from guys who were drafted (or even went undrafted) well below their final rank. Not so for pitchers.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Ian Kennedy’s a good example… Everyone knows what he’s going to do, basically what he did last year and he’s still not draft until around 175 overall…

                • GhostTownSteve says:
                  (link)

                  @Grey:

                  Irrelevant.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    Ha, totally… After I wrote it I was thinking that… But you’re turning your pitching to 13 when all you need is 12…

                    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey:”but this one goes to 11″

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Ha!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              There’s prolly two to one for arms that come out of nowhere compared to bats… Maybe three to one… Even the bats that sorta come out nowhere like Brantley and Abreu were fairly obvious… I had Abreu ranked in the top 60 overall… That’s not out nowhere… That’s a 5th round pick…

              • GhostTownSteve says:
                (link)

                @Grey:

                I just literally showed above that it’s pretty much 3 to 1 offensive guys in the top 100 that greatly overperformed draft slot versus pitchers. How much more clearer can I be? You’re gripping too tight, my excellent friend. I know you’re a writer, so I give you the old writing maxim “kill your darlings.” What the above count shows is that it’s offense NOT pitching where you find the value. Yes you had Abreu at 60 but he finished 3! MOFOin’ 3! That’s a count of guys who finished last year ranked way, way above where they were ranked pre-season. There is a much smaller pool of SPs that were ranked that low preseason who helped you win championships.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  I bet I can draft no pitchers before the 5th round and get a pitching staff that produces a 55 out of 60 points… Of course, I just jinxed myself but I’ve done it for five years straight now…

                  • GhostTownSteve says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey:

                    Well that’s the crazy!!!! thing. Crazy. What I’m showing below is that you do better when you don’t draft hitting early. The top hitting talent comes from the bottom. It’s effin’ weird. By drafting pitching early and grifting the bottom for hitters you increase your potential of hitting on the guys who actually end up being the top performers.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      So why stop at one top pitcher? Why not take, say, Scherzer and Price?

                    • GhostTownSteve says:
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                      @GhostTownSteve:

                      I’m saying take Scherzer and Price.

                  • GhostTownSteve says:
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                    @Grey:

                    Also, I would argue that part of your success in the pitching categories comes from a strategy that still comes from a different strategic premise which is not drafting closers. That is still completely valid. You’re grabbing Cobb where somebody else is burying a pick on a closer

                    Also, there’s a very strong correlation to streaming. You’re talking about streaming leagues and I’m talking about not streaming leagues. That conflates the issue.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      That does conflate things… Hey, this is conflategate!

                • J-FOH says:
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                  @GhostTownSteve: how many of those bats rose up because they filled in slots by the massive offensive let down by the top talent via injury or just bad years, I can’t assume every year top offensive guys are going to disappoint me…am I? Should I assume a Prince Fielder will get hurt? A 27 year old Bruce to flop? a Bryce Harper to get hurt? ok, bad point on Harper, but you get my drift. My point is I will drive myself nuts thinking about that. Granted, I think depending on league and who you are playing with I don’t have a problem with people taking an elite arm, what I do have an issue with is basing strategy for 2015 on 2014. The beauty of this silly little game is constructing a team that gives you a mix of stability, upside, flexibility and a little sexy. I dont always know what it is, but finding that bat late is always a hell of a lot harder than finding that arm. I have always taken a philosophical approach to this game and adapt my strategy to who and what I’m playing then I go curb stomp them in season where I feel the real talent lies. I have seen too many well drafted teams lose because they couldn’t handle making the in season adjustments. Like any good hitter, you gut to make adjustments.

                  • GhostTownSteve says:
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                    @J-FOH:

                    I offer this. When you draft top hitting talent, you are reluctant to dump them. There is a perception of value that doesn’t conform to performance. What if you punt hitting and churn your roster early? How much better do your odds become of hitting the Dickerson’s because of the dynamics in your roster?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      You also not dumping top pitching either…

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      @GhostTownSteve: depends how big your balls are, I dropped lester right before his huge game vs the A’s on May 3rd, (I gambled on the wheels falling off because even though the K’s were there I saw a trend) yet still owned Richards for a while, Arrieta for a while and streamed Carrasco for a few starts. One thing I learned from doing creeper and dfs last year was it aint easy to stream a bat. But back to pitching, I dropped arrieta later in the year and took a ration of crap for it but I did it to stream and the result gave me more wins, K’s and comporable ratios that bumped me in the standings.What does this all mean, I looked at my league and made decision based on who I was playing with. What does this all mean, not a god damn thing. Play your game and see who comes out on top and they are right for that season but maybe not the next

                • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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                  @GhostTownSteve: i’m guessing that’s where sonic youth’s kill yr idols came from then.

    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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      @GhostTownSteve: oh man, that’s a good way to start a post. so she said and on and on

  53. David Bowies Nephnew says:
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    Why do you rank Salazar over Stroman? Side by each, with the Stro seemingly having better stats.

    I assume(asss out of u and me) you have a computer machine you use to evaluate so many got damn players.

    Just wonder what its ingredients are. Do you consider a ‘player’s potential’ variable to your equation? cause otherwise the ranking don’t appear to make sense.

  54. David Bowies Nephnew says:
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    Waaa?

  55. David Bowies Nephnew says:
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    Im late to this…

    • Hoosier Daddy says:
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      @David Bowies Nephnew: Its a gestalt that considers the risk that they actually achieve those numbers – depending on the player there could be risk from injury history, questions of playing time, ability of a rookie to reach potential, etc. Better numbers for a player that are ranked lower are because they are overall have greater risk associated with them achieving those numbers.

  56. PhatBoy71 says:
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    APrice for Arrenado……STD h2h league……thanks Grey !

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Arenado

    • PhatBoy71 says:
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      @PhatBoy71: meant Altuve

  57. Lightblack says:
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    I think Ghost has some valid points. Last year I brought my keepers of Goldy/Ortiz/Darvish to my draft. In a ten team 5×5 OBP league my first 4 picks starting technically at what would constitute as round 4, were Harper/Sale/Strasburg/Rizzo. I was sorta lukewarm in the mid rounds but killed in late rounds with Kluber/Rendon/Dozier/Kazmir/Soria(27th rd). I was first in all pitching cats other than saves and second in wins. Won k’s by over 300 more than the second guy in that cat. Hitting I was prolly right above the middle but not in the top 3.

    If I had not lost Goldy/Rizzo/Darvish down the stretch I would had prolly ran away with the league. I’ll never now. Lost in the first round cus of hr/rbi outage.

    Moral of the story I had a overkill in pitching. In the draft I passed over Stanton for Stras and Gomez/Jones/Joey Bats for Sale. I learned my lesson from last year, although I did almost pull it of if not for Goldy/Rizzo going down. I love having a few 250 k guys but not at the expense of irreplaceable bats.

  58. Lightblack says:
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    Also I use Grey’s list as a guideline as to what guys I really want. You to take his rank and match it vs that players ADP. If you do a yahoo mock draft you will kill it. Those guys draft pretty much from the yahoo list.

    The biggest thing I keep an eye on is monitoring the yahoo overall list vs My list. Some guys you can get 39-40 picks or more after Grey’s ranking. Others you have to draft right at or slightly before. Aernado in the twenty mocks I’ve done I get in round 5-7 EVERYTIME. In a league of fellas like ourselves we know that won’t be true. If anything it tells me split the difference on guys I really want.

    I had one guy mock me for taking Ross 120th overall. Said he wished he was in all of my leagues. That was about 70 spots after were grey ranked him. Dumbass takes Anibal Sanchez with his next pick. Facepalm.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, completely

  59. J-FOH says:
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    starting a long draft tonight with other writers and its H2H. Yikes, but got to get my name out there. Playing with Sky and a few other Razzballeros.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Good luck!

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: I got EE with the 9th pick

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: and Rendon with the 4th ick of the 2nd. not too many happy with that. Im like seriously? Im a razzball man

  60. Natty Boh says:
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    Loved the Pitcher/Hitter debate.

  61. Cram It says:
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    TGIF Grey. For auctions, do you have a strategy regarding closers? I know you don’t pay for a stud, so do you allot a certain amount for them? Like $15-$20 for 3 closers? Something like that…

  62. Micel Peron says:
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    Any help appreciated…

    Need 5 keepers, 2 batters 2 pitchers and 1 of either in round drafted

    Price – 5
    Tanaka – 6
    Rizzo – 9
    Tehran – 10
    Gray – 11
    Cashner – 12
    Arenado – 13
    Cruz – 14
    Alex Wood – 16
    Baez – 21
    Springer – 22

  63. JB says:
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    Just wanted to say thanks for making the tiers more user friendly this year – they’ve always been very helpful but not easy to print out in a usable format – until now that is

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      No problem, it was done by a reader, not me…

  64. tanner says:
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    Grey,

    I know you are very high on Rizzo.. top 10 at this point… I got him last year on your recommendation.

    Do you take any value in the new Faketeams article ?ing his success and type of hitter he is based on Hard Contact rate… (they basically say he is mediocre and the power numbers are basically luck).

    Paralysis by analysis or legit concern?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’m not concerned

  65. Jonas says:
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    Grey,

    Do you plan on drafting Arenado with your second round pick? Do you think you could wait til round 4 or is 5?

  66. Chaz says:
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    Why is Justin Upton ranked so high? His
    projection is similar to Kemp whose at 60. Just curious! Great rankings

  67. Jon says:
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    Question: How do I import Grey’s top 400 list into my espn predraft rankings. I have been manually doing it and have saved it 3 times and every time it screws up and doesn’t save properly and I keep redoing it. I am very fruckiing frustrated with this shizzz someone help me please!!!

  68. Al says:
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    Mike What are you expecting from Michael Cuddyer this year? Thanks, Al

  69. trout is dog says:
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    grey et al,

    relative to, UM, everyone you are high on j bruce and low on j harrison. i have a chance to flip a $20 bruce for a $1 harrison. on paper, the value seems strong but my ‘intuition’ tells me bruce is going to go for .245/30/85/85/10, which would be worth like $30. should i make this deal?!? also, i am already loaded in the OF w/ trout, harper, soler, calhoun, pollack, k davis. and i have c davis slotted into 3b, so not like i have a need there either. got a $1 dannys antana at ss and could plug harrison into my mi.. is the $19 of pre-draft savings enough to rise up singing and pull the trigger hippy? WHAT TO DO?

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