I sure wish Grey would do his 2015 fantasy baseball rankings. Wait, I am Grey and this is those rankings. Holy crapballs, this is the greatest day ever! Now, only 400,000 words more until I finish my top 400 and I’ll be done. Worst day ever! Damn, that excitement was fleeting. Well, not for you because you don’t have to write all the rankings. You lucky son of a gun! I wish I were you… *wavy lines* Hey, why am I balding and wearing sweatpants? *wavy lines* Hmm, maybe we’re okay with who we are. Now before we get into the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball (though I imagine every single one of you has skipped this intro paragraph), I’m gonna lay some ground rules. First, keep your hands and legs inside the trolley. Second, send me all your money. Damn, tried to trick you! Okay, here’s where you follow us on Twitter. Here’s where you follow us on Facebook. Here’s our fantasy baseball player rater. Here’s our fantasy baseball team name generator. Here is all of our 2015 fantasy baseball rankings. Here’s the position eligibility chart for 2015 fantasy baseball. And here is a picture of my son. What a punim! You may not get all of those links in such a handy, easy-to-use format ever again this year, so make proper note. Now my expositional half insists I breakdown some generalizations about these 2015 fantasy baseball rankings. The 2015 fantasy baseball rankings will be an ever-evolving mass like the blob. This fantasy baseball top 10 for 2015 list is as of right now and could potentially change with a big injury or Mike Trout quitting baseball because he’s bored with being the best and wants to play competitive Mahjong. So while it is the 2015 fantasy baseball gospel, take it with a tablet of salt. Tomorrow we will cover the rest of the top twenty for 2015 fantasy baseball, then we will go around the horn with a top 20 list for every position. Then for pitchers and outfielders, I’ll turn the dial to 100. Listed next to each player are my 2015 projections. Did I consult with whoever else does projections? It would be ignorant not to, but in the end they are my projections. Players need 10 games at a position to get included in the positional rankings. Finally, as with each list in the 2015 fantasy baseball rankings, I will be mentioning where I see tiers start and stop. I look at tiers like this, if Giancarlo Stanton and Paul Goldschmidt are in the same tier, it doesn’t matter if one guy is ranked 2nd and one guy is ranked 5th, they’re both very close. It comes down to personal preference. I would prefer the guy at number two better than the guy at five, but you do you, I’ll do me and let’s hope we don’t go blind. Anyway, here’s the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball:
1. Mike Trout – This is the first tier. This tier goes from here until here. I call this tier, “No one else is Mike Trout.” For a few years now, I’ve put other players in Mike Trout’s tier, but, brucely, there’s no one else that belongs in Mike Trout’s tier. He wins leagues on his own. If you win the fantasy lottery and get to draft first and you don’t draft Trout, then you are daft, which is the beginning to this fantasy baseball tongue twister. You are daft if you draft anyone but Trout down by the sea-sharrio; then sit back and peep this sce-nahr-i-o. Trout’s floor is 30 HRs, 15 SBs, .275. Or to get punny on your ass, Trout’s plankton on better than the fourth best hitter in fantasy. That’s right, McCutchen can’t touch Trout’s floor. And why only expect the worst from Trout? Again for emphasis, why would we expect the worst from Trout, still only 23 years old? As Kendrick Lamar would say, ya fish don’t kill my vibe. Where’s Trout living? In roe housing. Take it, Highlights. 2015 Projections: 108/33/106/.281/20
2. Giancarlo Stanton – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Goldschmidt. I call this tier, “You got the 2nd pick, so flip a coin.” What I mean by the tier name is, after Trout, there’s a few guys you can draft that all have different reasons for being drafted 2nd. I put them in this order due to a mix of floor and ceiling. Stanton’s floor feels stable at 32 HRs and his ceiling feels high; think 50 HRs. If there’s one hitter that could pass Trout for fantasy value, I’d take Giancarlo’s chances. Or to misquote Henny Youngman, I take Giancarlo’s chances everywhere and they always find their way back in my dreams. Now, because Giancarlo seems to have blocked my calls and I’m forbidden from going within 500 feet of him, I will need to leave a poem for him here and hope he gets it. I call this poem, “You Must Be Tired Because You Keep Running Through My Mind.”
You could rule the world by hitting those white stitched-up spheres,
When you face the Brewers next year, they’ll be tears for Fiers.
I put my heart on eBay and there was only one bid,
It was for $325 million, which is around half that in quid.
Okay, so you’re my honey,
Like ODB say, now give me my money!
Together we’d be in heaven,
For 2015 Projections: 93/43/109/.270/seven.
3. Jose Abreu – You can look Abreu’s 2014 one of two ways. One way to look at it is he was on pace for 50 homers when they went to the All-Star break. The other way to look at it is he only hit 7 homers in the 2nd half. It’s a glass is half full vs. half empty scenario. Did you know that if you were to pour the half empty glass into a smaller glass it would be a full glass? Yeah, I think deeply. Take his 7 post-ASB homers and pour them into a smaller glass labeled “Post-All-Star break” when his K-rate went down, his OBP went up to .435 from .342 and his batting average went up to .350 from .292. The half glass of water is now running over with other wonderfulness in the smaller glass. McCutchen led the league last year with a .410 OBP (yeah, that’s pathetic compared to five years ago), and Abreu had a .435 OBP in the 2nd half. Prettttay, prettttay good. On a side note that I like to call Fun With Baseball Stats. The Grande Dolor had exactly 18 homers with the bases empty and 18 homers with men on base. Even crazier, he had exactly 36 runs from those 36 homers. If you found that even crazier, I have 500 Gregg Jefferies rookie cards to sell you. Frank Thomas won’t be drafting The Grande Dolor third, but that’s because he drinks Campari straight up because he’s already got the bitters, but I will be. 2015 Projections: 86/32/110/.306/4
4. Andrew McCutchen – Remember way back in Giancarlo’s blurb how I was talking about floors and ceilings and you were like, “Is Grey building a house?” and I was like, “No, I don’t even know the difference between screwdrivers,” and you were like, “Screwdrivers? Are you talking dirty to me?” and then we started cackling and our neighbor knocked on the door and said, “Keep your cackling down,” and we did until you showed me that pic that you thought looked like a cross between a young Roger Ebert and our very own JB? Ah, yes, good times. Now we’re back to business! McCutchen’s stats are like they’re on the 7 1/2 floor in the Mertin-Flemmer Building — low ceiling, high floor. 2015 Projections: 92/22/94/.309/20
5. Paul Goldschmidt – Yes, two of the top five guys had season-ending injuries prior to mid-September last year. Gee, thanks for raining on my parade, Bobby Darin. You’re swell! By the by, Bobby Darin was famous for Don’t Rain on my Parade, Splish Splash and Beyond the Sea. Is it me or was Bobby Darin into watersports? So, Au Shizz, like Giancarlo, had a season-ending injury. Unlike Giancarlo, I have some pause on Goldschmidt’s injury, since it was a fractured left hand, and Giancarlo’s was just a fractured dimple. No one ever hit 30 homers on dimples alone. Though Jose Canseco’s could’ve prolly hit 17 to 20. Also, prior to the left hand injury, Goldschmidt’s power looked closer to 27-ish than 35-ish. All indications are that Au Shizz will be fully healed, and I hate to question a novio of mine, but I have so0me trepidation, so there ya go. Still, he is only 27 years old, capable of 35 HRs and .300+ average and I can’t drop him any lower for fear I’ll have my Au Shizz Fan Boy card revoked. I pay $19.99/month for this stupid card! 2015 Projections: 94/29/103/.292/12
6. Adam Jones – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Miggy. I call this tier, “Your safeword.” You’re in the throes of a fantasy draft. You’re choosing sixth overall and the draft plays out exactly as it is above. 1-5 are gone and suddenly you’re pushed up against the wall. The binds tighten for who you can choose. A bead of sweat slowly drips down your forehead. The haunting words, “Water, water everywhere, not a drop to drink,” ring in your head. An elderly Asian woman spreads hot wax on your hairy buttocks. You gulp, she rips the wax and you scream. You’re not sure why you’re getting a Brazilian wax while you draft. Something about wanting to do more things together with your woman. You let the pain continue for another 89 seconds. Finally, with one second to go before you get autopicked, you say your safeword: Adam Jones. You feel a tinge of sorrow that you had to say your safeword, but you’re at least grateful you’re out of pain, until the elderly Asian woman turns you over and begins to manscape your front. Jones isn’t going to leave you feeling like you won your draft in the first round (or anyone in this tier), but it’s four years in a row now that he’s played at least 151 games and has put up number one outfielder stats. I’d prefer to say my safeword in the first round and save the kinky, risky shizz for the 10th round. 2015 Projections: 90/28/101/.280/10
7. Edwin Encarnacion – He’s averaged 37 home runs over the last three years and hasn’t hit below .268 in any of those years. Let’s write “Good news” on that. He hasn’t played in more than 151 games in any season of his career, last year he played in 128 games and he’s now 32 years old. Let’s write “Bad news” on that. His walk rate went down below its pre-breakout level, his K-rate went above his pre-breakout level and his line drive rate dropped. On that, let’s write “More Bad News.” Let’s go back to the “Good News” and remember only three players hit 37 homers last year and Edwin has averaged that over the last three years. 2015 Projections: 87/37/107/.272/5
8. Miguel Cabrera – This is the lowest I’ve ever ranked Miggy since I started this blog in 2007. You remember 2007. It was the year when you promised yourself, “If I can just get to 2015, I’ll be rich and successful and will have wiped out Ebola!” Don’t worry, there’s always your 2008 dream, which was, “If I can get to 2015, I’ll be rich and successful and will have wiped out Ebola! And if not 2015, then by 2016 for sure!” I nearly ranked Swiggy up around 3rd overall, but there’s word that he won’t be ready for Opening Day. I hate that. I’m an injury-phobe. If a player’s injured, I stay far away. Swigs, though, played hurt last year, and still had a decent year. He seems capable of having solid years deep into his 30s, a’la his teammate and last year’s favorite Zombino, Victor Martinez. As for the big Miggy years, I think they’re only closer in your rear view mirror. 2015 Projections: 95/27/106/.305/1
9. Anthony Rizzo – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “The ceiling can’t hold us.” I’m a big believer in a player’s third season is their breakout and around the level we can expect from them give or take a few stats. As they move towards the age 28, it’s usually getting more stats. As they move past the age 28 year, it’s usually subtracting some stats. It’s pretty rudimentary, but I’ve had the best fantasy baseball rankings for the last two years, so whether you believe in this anecdotal evidence or not is irrelevant. I believe in it and it works. Natch! Last year, I was crazy high on Rizzo, and it paid off. He was headed into his third full year and ready to explode. Explode he did — 32 HRs, 5 SBs and .286. There’s nothing in those numbers you should be worried about. Going into last year, there was some concern he couldn’t hit lefties. Last year, he hit .300 with 8 homers off southpaws. This is why I get so infuriated when young players are platooned without ample opportunity to show they can hit same-sided pitchers. Infuriated, y’all! Rizzo is only 25 years old and getting better. Could he be Au Shizz as soon as 2015? I have no doubt. Au Rizz! 2015 Projections: 93/36/100/.262/7
10. Carlos Gomez – I’m fairly confident in my rankings up until this point. Maybe Jose Daria Abreu only hits 7 homers in the first half and we realize he was a 7-homer half hitter and not a 29-homer half hitter. Maybe dog butts are a passageway to the future and that’s where the term hindsight came from. Something always goes wrong with the top 12 that is somewhat unforeseeable without butt-sniffing dogs. The reason why I say that now is Carlos Gomez’s stats the past three years definitely make the case for him to be ranked here, but he’s the first player I’m truly scared about disappointing. The reason why I still ranked him here is because there’s no scientific evidence to make me worry, it’s just my gut and I just ate a tuna sandwich that smelled funny. The last two years he’s hit .284, and last year he even cut his Ks and upped his walks. Age can be tricky for speed, he’s 29 years old and last year he stole the fewest bags of the last three years. He still stole 34 bases though, so hold the phone on calling the Mayans on the Gomezcalypse. 2015 Projections: 89/24/70/.279/28
Juanuary Grey is the best.
The Hispanicness was intentional.
He’s like a warm sombrero atop of these cold Midwestern nights.
@Gareth: Ha, thanks!
Rizzo and Rendon.
They grow up so fast these fantasy studs.
Totally agree by the way.
@Gareth: They do, they do
The rankings (and Grey’s enclosed wit) were what brought me to Razzball originally.
It’s a wonderful post holiday treat every year and thank you Grey and Rudy for all the hard work you put into it.
@Gareth: No Gareth, the real treat is seeing you with the first five posts/incessant ramblings. After checking in for the first time since the end of the season, you can imagine my joy seeing your mug all over the place again. I’m going back to hibernating…
@Cram It:
I come to razzball to be a fantasy champion, but when I get here, I really just want to be like Gareth
@Cram It:
so what’s the deal with Gareth? Is he a kid, an internet troll, or just special?
@Cram It: don’t go Cram. He didn’t talk about the tribe…for once
@J-FOH: I see Mike did a whole round up of the Indians minor leagues. Not a peep from Gareth there. Only has eyes for Grey. Ok, enough about Gareth. You still shooting to do the same Razzball league this year?
@Cram It: FCL 4 life.
@Cram It: you have my email?
@J-FOH: I do…and your home address
@J-FOH: Do I need it?
@Cram It: yes, email me. you on twitter?
@J-FOH: I don’t tweet. What do you want me to email you?
@Cram It: Mike is awesome.
I did see the Indians article after the fact, and thought he did an excellent job covering the Indians minor league system.
@Cram It: Damn, I’ve missed you ’round here [email protected]Cram It:
@MattTruss223: Hey thanks buddy. Feels good to be back in the fold. Spring can’t come soon enough.
@Gareth: No problem
G3!
@Gareth: Think that’s G4
@Gareth: buy the abacus already!
Ps: It would be a true Razzball victory if “Adam Jones” becomes the Sexual Safeword in any home in America.
@Gareth: Ours is currently “Oklahoma”. Maybe we’ll think about a revision.
@PK: @PK: that’s funny, Oklahoma is a safeword in Bowl Games right now
@Todd25: I think we stole it from the Jackass movie, to be honest. The big fat guy lasted about 10 seconds against two dominatrices.
@Gareth: Ha
Best day of the year. Thanks Grey!
@JT: No problem
Yay. Yay! YAY!
@Tigres: Ooh, the crescendoing Yays
Sweet!!!
@Curt: Oh yeah
Awesome, and with these rankings I think we can all say that the 2015 fantasy baseball season has officially begun! Nice job, Grey!
Wish I knew where to get my AuSchizz fan club membership card, but $20 a month seems pretty steep. Does it at least come bundled with some premium porn sites? Perhaps some deep bdsm type stuff for the lady and me… ADAM JONES!!
@Ryan: HA… It comes with a subscription of ESPN’s Insider
7:18 am, EST, 1/12/15: The moment when January Grey re-entered my life. Also when I was doing my morning business on the can, but that’s hardly worth mentioning.
Welcome back!
@Beastman: Ha, thanks!
Well done, Grey! Always look forward to this, especially when I have two keepers listed (Miggy and Goldy). It helps sooth the pain when I inevitably get bounced in the first round of a head-to-head playoff because of Adam LaRoche or some other schmohawk goes off.
@Lincecuminmypants: Yup
260 10 keeper
I have a $20 polanco (Pitt)
1- what overall rank do U have him in the NL?
Looking to package him with a $7 Giles for a$25 rendon
Whatchathink ?
@One: I’d take Rendon
Hallelujah! Did not see that Rendon ranking coming, it made me tingle in a not-unpleasant fashion.
@Clyde Prompto: Ha, nice
Baseball is in the air. Love it
@Al Koholic: AL!
FINALLYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!
@Jay: Indeeddddddd
Grey,
Your take, please? Chase Anderson or Dan Haren?
And is it close?
@joet: It’s close, Anderson
These rankings be cray, and I love them.
@Ra’zball Al Ghul: Thanks!
Tears for Fiers
@Ra’zball Al Ghul: Great group!
Never look forward to a Monday more than this very morning. Warm greetings January Grey! Your boy looks great (holiday sweater?)! Getting big! Starting to look more and more like Giancarlo; until his stache comes in. Solid Top 10. Tough to judge Rendon until tomorrow’s release of those below. But I respect & after many seasons enbosom your twisted logic. Very much looking forward & thanks to you and Rudy for all the diligence compiling!
@zombie: Thanks, zombie!
Birthday?
Christmas?
No, no no. THIS is the best day of the year! Welcome back, January Grey. We missed the hell out of your mustache..
@Hawk: Thanks, Hawk!
Ah, the first rankings post of the new year. Happy day!
@PK: Only 30 more rankings posts to go!
Where’s Joe Mauer?
I’d better check ESPN’s rankings to see if you got this right…
@Niceguybilly: Ha
Ahhhh rankings, who says Christmas only comes once a year. Looking forward to another informative and entertaining year.
@Lville Jim: Thanks!
I always wait till your rankings to officially start harassing my teammates for league fees! My happiness is their misfortune. Schadenfreude, snitches!
Surprised you’re all in with Jose Abreu at #3! I didn’t sense it from the blurb, but is he someone you’d be apprehensive about taking if McCutch and Goldie were still there? I dig the Rendon ranking.
@The JoGarza: The intro has your answer.
@PK:
Yeah, I’m familiar with how Grey’s rankings work. It’s just almost un-Grey-like for him to rank someone who’s been on the scene only one year so high.
Perhaps it’s because I have this “rule”, so to speak, that I wait two years to spend a high pick on a breakout player. Did so with Trout and Bautista.
@The JoGarza: Nope, I’d draft Abreu
@The JoGarza: but not all of your leagues are money leagues…
Warning. The following message may be unsafe for both small children and animals.
Grey and More Karabell agree on 4 of the top 5 player. Only The Grande Dolor misses out.
Rendon at #15 on EhSpin
“Winter, slumbering in the open air, wears on its smiling face a dream… of spring. Ciao.”
I can almost smell the pine tar
@EnglishMetsFan: Ha
Hi Grey, thanks for your rankings, cant wait!
One question i asked: 5X5, shallow league,
Choose 2 keepers from Stanton Abreu Kershaw
And Grey’s answer is to choose Stanton & Kershaw.
Stanton is for sure, and I like Kershaw a lot, so I love this answer.
Is the answer still the same? If yes, but Abreu is Grey’s number 3, why Kershaw? Thoughts appreciated.
@Wilson: Go Stanton and Abreu
@Grey: Really..? Kershaw is the best pitcher on the plate..
Is it because ” batter has more value than pitcher, the best batter has more value than the best pitcher” ? Thanks
You can’t lose either way
@Grey: One more question, if I get high chance to grab Rizzo in draft, still Abreu over Kershaw in my keeper selection? Thanks
Yup
And I thought choosing 3 of these 4 (Trout, Abreu, Cutch, Miggy) was going to be hard…
@Adam: Wouldn’t say it’s completely obvious, nice keepers though
Grey!!!
Man, Oh, man! Is this every delicious!!! This is like a manwhich added to a philly cheese steak topped off with a turkey burger with double swiss cheese!!!
Can’t wait for 11-20! hope I don’t have to wait too long.
By-the-by, what do you make of MIA Marlins signing of Michael Morse? Morse agreed because…
a. He wanted to be closer to Fort Lauderdale;
b. He wants to secretly ruin MIA’s team defense;
c. He wants to make MIA World Series champions;
d. No way in hell that SF wins the World Series in an odd-numbered year. Just ask Joe Buck.
I choose ‘a’ (25%), ‘b’ (45%), ‘c’ (5%) and ‘d’ (25%). You?
Cheers,
Ante
@Ante GALIC: Ha, I went over Morse when he signed, just need to search the site for it
Well dang, it seems as though all the top 10 players will be keepers in my league, unless the ownder of Rendon is silly enough to not keep him, which could be possible, he had some other players and no idea how other sites are ranking him yet. Good news though I have 2 of the 10 on my team, Goldy and Jones. Let the dominating begin early.
@Grant: Nice
OMG OMG OMG
@SheriffMcRawDawg: You sound like my grandfather’s girlfriend, in the best way possible
@Grey: you grandpa is a bad ass. Still reminds me of James Caan.
Totally
@Grey: your rankings are so fetch!
Ha
No Kershaw?
@Blanky: What gave it away?
@Grey: lol
@Blanky: This is me quoting Grey (albeit from last year’s rankings)
“After the top 20 for 2014 fantasy baseball there’s a ton of names, but this one stands out:
Clayton Kershaw – This isn’t about Kershaw. He’s awesome. I love him. If I was gonna do a gay maneuver, I’d give Kershaw a handieburger. It’s not about my love or lack of love for Kershaw. You should not draft a pitcher in the first two rounds. Again with caps, DO NOT DRAFT A PITCHER IN THE FIRST TWO ROUNDS. Don’t make me go bolding shizz. There’s pitching everywhere. A top 20 starter just fell out of your backyard tree. I swear to God, look out your window. See?! What you won’t see fall out of your backyard tree is a 40-homer hitter. I’d prefer you drafted Ellsbury or Giancarlo or some other hitter that didn’t make my top twenty than a pitcher. You can draft five pitchers after the top 100 and have a competitive team. You can’t draft an entire outfield after the top 100 and have a competitive team. Or a 1st base and 3rd baseman. Kershaw is the wind under Bette Midler’s wings, but you should not draft him. 2014 Projections: 17-6/2.65/1.03/222”
Word is that this Kang guy is close to signing with the Pirates. How good do you think he can be at SS? Top 15? Top 10?
@ashtray: I’ll go over him in the shortstops post
The big lists and all their inherent wisdom is here. My pants are wet.
@shibboleth: Ha
Remember last year when Matt Carpenter was trying to creep anonymously in the Razzball comments? “Why can’t I, I mean he, get 130 runs again? And maybe hit twice as many dingers?”
Wonder who will be poking around with such nonsense this year… Victor Martinez? Charlie Blackmon? If anyone’s writing in all lowercase I’ll be quick to accuse them of being Jose Altuve.
HA!
@Carnac: justcaughtthispostbutihavetorun
.
downhereguys!
Grey,
The rankings starting to come in makes my pants smile.Is the War Room tool coming back this year?
It should come back, yeah
@Grey: @Grey: @Grey: OMG!
My sources say ESPN will have Abreu at #22, Rizzo at #29, and Rendon at #47. Going for a 4-peat this year with your rankings. 50% of the time, they work every time!
Ha
I remember you mentioned somewhere that you thought Rizzo would be this year’s Goldshmidt. Your ranking totally backs this up. No Rizzo discount here!
In some ways Rizzo may be a safer 1st round pick than Goldy, Abreu, Cabrera and Encarnacion – because of injury concerns with those guys.
I wouldn’t say safer
@Grey: Yeah. Injuries can hit anyone at anytime.
It especially sucks when a first rounder suffers this fate.
ICleveland is currently looking like “the day after tomorrow.”
I’m just waiting for Jake Gyllenhaal and a pack of wolves to show up.
Huh?
@Grey: We’ve been hit pretty hard by a snowstorm.
I just took the freeway to downtown Cleveland with like Zero visibility.
You West coasters have it easy!
Move out here, the Angels will accept your fandom!
@Grey: the angels love the white guys
OC, in general
@Grey: its crazy white down there in Overly Caucasian County
Ha!
“First, keep your hands and legs inside the trolley.”
Leads to obscure Simpson’s reference…
“Now, class, remember. Do not stick any part of your body out the window. We all know the tragic story of the young man who stuck his arm out the window and had it ripped off by a big truck coming in the other direction. “
Ha
Grey, have you done of these NFBC leagues where the draft is a week a long, 50 rounds, and no in-season pick ups?
Yeah, last year… I hated it…
@Grey: Word. Want to get in the mix for some big money but the unfamiliarity with the format handicaps me off the bat.
It’s worth giving it a shot in a cheaper league to see if you like it…
@Cram It: magoo is well versed in the NFBC, you should talk to him. email me and I can hook you up with him.
@J-FOH: Boy you really want me to email you. Haha. I responded to your ESPN league invite with my email address.
@Cram It:
I did an RCL express draft Friday night. 60 seconds per pick, 50 players, no moves, 15 teams. It was a pretty cool rush.
@UL’s Toothpick:
Ha. Not RCL. Meant NFBC !!!
@UL’s Toothpick: I like where your head is
@UL’s Toothpick: Rush aside, do you like your chances? Is that the format where top 3 in your division gets money, but you can score winnings going up against everyone also?
@Cram It:
Yes. My first year drafting in NFBC. Todd Zola posted that this league was drating so i jumped in. Could have used the War Room though. Steamer likes this team. This is what I got:
C; Ruiz, Salty, Cervelli, Susac
1B; Belt
3B; Donaldson, Uribe, DJ Peterson
CI; Arenado
SS; A Escobar, Suarez
2nd; Bonifacio, Panik
MI; Schoop, Ev Cabrerra
OF; Stanton, Puig, S Pearce, A Eaton, Arcia, M Bourn, Marisnick, Maybin, Brentz
Util; Napoli
Starters (1-7); Cobb, Arrietta, Carrasco, Shields, F Liriano, Pineda, Corbin
Starters (8-17); Colome, Machi, Bundy, AJ Cole, Delgado, D Hale, C Rasmus, D Norris, R Montero, A Nola
RPs; K Jansen, F Rodriguez, Motte, Hunter, Hochevar
@UL’s Toothpick: That shizz is deep. I don’t think I’m ready to throw away $150.
@Cram It: I hated the format, felt pretty helpless not being able to make a trade or anything when I was starting Darin Ruf at first because Prince and Nick Swisher were both hurt. BUT, my favorite part of this game is the daily moves and I like to micromanage/rosterbate. It’s also where I think my edge is, so, yea, not my cup of tea having to sit back and watch my team do nothing. There’s other versions of NFBC though, like J-FOH said, Magoo and Oaktown were in a normal type league last year with add/drops via FAAB and all that. I might look into those this season.
@MattTruss223: Yeah I don’t think the 50 man roster, no moves is something I would enjoy. I need to see if there’s a format more up my alley. Like Sky and I were agreeing last year, I like something in between the RCL daily moves craziness and no moves.
Grey, you know when you are really hungry and then the food comes out and you eat and before the bill comes.
This is like that
Ha, nice
Since everyone is talking about ranks and love I’m going to pass on that and talk about hate and worst cooks in murica. I’m a little iffy on Rendon at 10 but I get it like those pants you wore at the San Diego tour stop you need to make a bold splash. With no more laroach, a kempish time to get a surgery for Werth, the glass twins ( harper and Zim ) I have a feeling the Nats may not be the best place to hit. But alas I’m just playing the Devils advocate. Does Desmond get traded and could those listed above even be considered protection.
Now worst cooks did you watch it last night?
Desmond seems unlikely to be traded…The Nats are a contender and will add to their team, not subtract… I didn’t watch Worst Cooks yet… Will watch tonight…
@Grey:
Michael Taylor going to be a factor.
Could be for a few, but Werth isn’t just going to disappear
@Grey:
Would like to see Taylor play. Hope he can hang.
Werth may disappear for 10 days if he doesn’t hire a better attorney…
Werth should be back by mid-April… Where does Taylor play after that?
@Grey:
I am with you. Unless Harper goes down he goes to bench or AAA. hell, they may play someone like Mclouth to start the year anyway.
Yeah, totally
@Grey: The jury is out on Desmond deal. Their pitching makes them contenders, like everyone else. With Werth I’m making the parallel with Kemp who chose to have his surgery in January and never came back right for the whole season. With his age and the late surgery he can do his damage on your team cause he wont be on any of mine. Of course, I’m playing devils advocate here and I won’t give you any spoilers for WCA
Yeah, I wouldn’t touch Werth this year
…and then after the Asian women says your finished and you’re breathing normally again, she exclaims “Ooops, I missed a spot.” I’m sure that displeasure doesn’t rival the displeasure of me asking….any chance you could through in an OBP projection for the rest of the list?
OBP will be in the overall projections rankings down the road…
@Grey: hell YA
… and then the Asian women says “at least your not getting your eyebrows done.” Kinda like me saying “you don’t have to re-rank based on OBP”.
Curious….when you do your rankings do you take your projections and convert them into z-scores or some such thing to get the order?
I don’t
Good afternoon Grey!
I am very excited to see our novio Stanton ranked #2, I slightly wept last year when you had him as the #10 outfielder.
Quick catcher question. I know you went over Stephen Vogt last week, but with Jaso getting traded in the Zobrist deal does that help him get above 125 games?
He should be around 125-130 games now
Grey, love that you have the boldest top 10 out there. Thanks in advance for making the next four weeks awesome.
No problem
Grey… Chanca Piedra. Good Stuff!
Thanks!
And its Rendons 3rd year!
Love it!
Man, I have been trying to read between the lines and the tea leaves all winter. Did not see the Rendon ranking coming. I just knew you were going to put Arenado in the top 10 though. Can’t wait for tomorrow…
Ha, I do love Arenado though
Ah, my Red Ryder air rifle has arrived. So nice when the first set of rankings is published.
The only major surprise for me is seeing Rendon ahead of Joey Bats. I’m guessing the age is scaring you off on that one.
I’m not sure that Adam Jones is a “safe” pick either, though you can’t argue with his results over the past few years. That 2.8% BB% is really ugly though. He’s had a sub-.320 OBP in three out of the last four seasons. Might be closer to 80 runs than 90. The steals could be settling into that 6-8 range at this point of his career too. I’d take Gomez over Jones without hesitation.
So, the high ceiling tier is to be continued. Don’t let Harper suck you in, Grey. Don’t do it!
You know I love me some upside, Magoo
@Grey: Upside is great in the mid-late rounds, but a risky upside play in the 2nd? Eh.
That being said, things start looking iffy this year at the back end of the 1st round. Arguments can be made for a bunch of players after that. I just see too much risk in Harper that early on.
If you’re going with upside, might as well be bold. Soler power!
Yeah, I didn’t rank Harper yet though, let’s not jump the gun…. I do agree with you, there’s not a whole lot of safe bets at the tail end of the 1st round… Crazy to think some people will have Trout and others will have Adam Jones
@Grey: You can’t throw me off of the scent! I know that Harper’s just around the corner, haha. Nice try.
The thing with Jones is that I can easily see a 82/26/90/7/.278 type of line from him this season. Even in the current environment, that doesn’t look like 1st round material to me. The only category that I see him clearly outperforming Gomez in is RBIs. Maybe 2-4 more homers as well. Gomez should have more runs, and about 25 more steals. Average should be about even. I see Gomez as the player with the higher floor, which is why I compared the two. I probably won’t be owning Jones this year unless he slips into the mid-late 2nd round area.
@Big Magoo: ok, so you’re really Gomez and Gareth is really you?
@J-FOH: So I like .280/20/30 players. How can I be Gomez? I still like Gerrit Cole…
@Big Magoo: sorry, Gomez agent
Ha, dang! You’re giving Jones the lowest numbers he’s had in 3 years due to his lack of walks… Not just his lowest runs, but lowest everything…. He never walked…
@Grey: It’s not just his lack of walks, though his walk rate last season was just over half of what it was in ’12 and has fallen for two straight years. His ISO dropped below .200 for the first time since ’11, and he seems to be running less as many sluggers do as they start to age. He only scored 88 runs last year with a 40 homer Cruz hitting behind him. Lots of concerns here…
Gomez’s steals are falling and his game relies more on them, and he’s the same age as Jones… BTW, I like Gomez, so I’m not even arguing that Gomez isn’t a decent end of the 1st round pick…
@Grey: I’m not saying that you don’t like Gomez, just that I’d take him over Jones. I never considered Gomez to be a true 40 steal player, but he’s definitely a 30 steal one.
The question is would you rather have a .280/23/30 player or a .280/28/10 guy? I’d prefer the former over the latter…
Is Gomez a .280 hitter or a .260 one is my main concern…
@Grey: Gomez has hit .284 in each of the last two seasons across 1,234 plate appearances. I’d say that’s a large enough sample size to determine what type of average can be expected of him going forward…
Okay, let’s agree to agree!
@Grey: Deal! I’ll even do my best to avoid talking about Gomez tomorrow…
No! Good debate is always welcome!
@Grey: Of course, I love a good debate. Just sayin’ that I’ll leave Gomez and Harper for others to talk about tomorrow if they choose to.
I don’t want to beat a dead horse. You can see that on one of those ASPCA commercials that makes you feel like a monster if you decline to donate any money to their cause.
Haha
Look! She came!
And she came too!
Ah, it’s good to be back in the confines of Razzball.
HA
I’m personally not picking Adam Jones in the first round.
He’s consistent, but the lack of steals (7 steals last year) is the separator for me. He’s a fast athletic guy. Is there a reason he doesn’t run more?
Maybe the O’s need him to produce runs and don’t want to risk it… Not entirely sure
@Gareth: so that he does his job/drives the ball and doesn’t get hurt legging out a SB. some of the other metrics described in Rudy’s article show this too, but they seem to be more descriptive than predictive.
@Mr. Han’s Militant Vegans No More: I knew I didn’t come up with that on my own. I must have been remote viewing Grey’s genius.
I came, I saw, I read. All I gots ta say is NOLAN ARENADO FO LIFE
Fo Life!
@Sky: SKY! you have your crush, Grey has his and mine is a ?
@J-FOH: Fantasy crushes….go! Kolten Wong.
Ike Davis! [dodges tomato]
@Mike: Mike Likes Ike!
@Mike: I’m just glad that POS is out of NY.
Just surprised the Phils didnt get him…
ya cut me Grey. ya cut me deep.
@Cram It: It’s really Avisail, I love the look of young Miggy in his eye. And that he bined Prince’s wife, after what Prince did to me last year he deserves that shizz
@J-FOH: I see big things from him this year also. I was gonna say him but Wong is just so much cuter.
@Cram It: you like small asians?
Wow. This is weird, I had Trout ranked first too! You me? Me you? Ha choo, spit…if you’re standing, sit…pitcher in the first, don’t want none of it…pacman hardwoods…all over it…don’t never quit…Abreu, second half…just a blip…a busted lip…like su New novio…r to the izzo plus six…HaHa to the Dix!
Nice rhyming skills…Haha Dix, all day every day!
@Grey: Rendon the New Cano?
Nice poetry skills!
I’m more of a haiku man
@Grey: yeah, you would fit in with the japanese
I won’t ask in what way…
@Grey: oh but i will tell you. Stature!.. you might be kinda tall in Tokyo. But still, thats the only comp. I think that would make a great band name. Kinda Tall in Tokyo!
Sounds like a Refreshments song
@Grey: more punk rock
Would you trade Cobb for Kipnis?
@Jon: kipnis side
Sure
@Grey: I’m really anxious to see where you have Kipnis this year. An owner in my league is selling, I could use a 2B, and I’m trying to settle on a fair pitcher price. Cobb might be it. Thanks!
No problem
5X5 Roto with the following scoring cats…. OBP, Runs, HR, RBI, SB-CS…..Wins, Loses, ERA, K, Saves
Would you keep…..the always hurt Carlos Gonzalez or the aging Adam Wainwright?
@mark: CartGo…
CarGo
@Grey: Thanks Guys
No problem
The boys down at the station said you may have an infestation ?
Hey G, i’m not really a big fan of your ranking posts and I could take or leave January Grey. Pretty sub par effort if you ask me. I expect much more from you.
(Disclaimer: This is an attempt to keep you humble and grounded amongst the incessant praises. The views expressed in the above comment are solely the opinion of nobody. January Grey, this post, and any proceeding posts are clearly amazing. Readers are compensated with a wealth of knowledge and humor. This has been a free advertisement of NtD Enterprises LLC)
@nick the dick: the non ass kiss ass kiss. Brilliant!
@nick the dick: that is literally the best comment in the history of the 6000 year old world…
@J-FOH: @Wake Up: sometimes you gotta remind the man basking in the glow of the LA sun that he is from the Jersey slums…
Dirty Jerz!
@Grey: We will never forget
@nick the dick: hey it rained for like two days *looks out window* oh sorry sun is back out. time to throw on some shorts and flip flops.
@J-FOH: Hey it rained here today too! After 2 days of snow…Nice sheet of ice we got going on now. Blistering 35 degrees today. Nice change of pace from the teens its been. Your rains and my rains ain’t the same! Cut from a different cloud.
@nick the dick: whats a sheet of ice. I only know about the cubes
@J-FOH: They prolly have trees…with leaves, too…google them…they’re majestic…
@Wake Up: I have a fake tree next to my palm tree
@J-FOH: *throws a flip flop at the computer screen*
Ha, thanks!
@Grey: I like how you’re super stingy with the Ha’s today too. Good luck trying to get a capital A, let alone an exclamation point.
@nick the dick: Right? I have a spreadsheet set up where I’ve logged all my “Ha’s”, “HA’s” & “HA’s!” in order to calculate my weighted and unweighted Ha/HA, Ha/HA!, & HA/HA! ratios. So far, I’m way below league average.
**sad emoticon**
@Mr. Han’s Militant Vegans No More: where do you put awesome? gotcha? totally?
@J-FOH: peripherals. I’m still way under league average there too (~RCL ranking of 459).
@J-FOH: dont get much worse than gotcha
@nick the dick: yup…
@Wake Up: I’ll tell ya, a huh? always hurts. It’s like getting an F on homework you worked really hard on.
@nick the dick: I read that too fast…thought you said something about how you really worked a hard on…
@Wake Up: thats cuz youve watched one too many Lifetime movies or Van Halen videos
@nick the dick: Wow! I’ve always been a back of the classroom kinda person… you know, not really caring. But this is going to be tough. Maybe I need to go to AAA or AA commenting. Do they have classes???
**confused/sad/low self-esteem/what is life really all about emoticon**
@Mr. Han’s Militant Vegans No More: if at first you dont succeed, cry cry again
@Mr. Han’s Militant Vegans No More: if only we could all have Wake’s magical powers of HA
@nick the dick:
Lifetime…gotcha
Van Halen videos…huh?
Now, I’m seeing that you only said one F…a sign?
@Wake Up: Just when im riding high you hit me with a gotcha….as if youve never been hot for teacher
@Wake Up: and i aint no one F!! #fact of the day
@Wake Up: I can’t tell if you like Nick or you think he’s a dix?
@nick the dick: what does van halen and lifetime have to do with each other and choose your words wisely hip hop
@J-FOH: teachers giving students hard ons. Didnt think it was that far of a reach
@J-FOH: Got nothing but love for all of the Razzra…possible exception: Jeremy!
@nick the dick: I never got wood from a Lifetime movie…nor do I really watch them. Good to know you are such a lifetime fan.
@J-FOH: I think youre missing what im saying here. I know Lifetime movies have alot of teachers seducing students. Hot For Teacher is Van Halen, yes? *checks google* See it does make sense! I was neither saying I watch Lifetime nor listen to Van Halen.
@nick the dick: you like Lifetime movies, own it.
@J-FOH: Tis’ true. Milf city and strewn with young hotties bringing the drama, whats not to like?
@nick the dick:
well played!
I can tell you one secret that Grey shared with me years ago…he always/only writes wearing mom jeans…now, I only type wearing yoga pants…
You just gotta find YOUR inner britches!
@Wake Up: yoga pants have a way of making any ass look amazing and I assume youre no exception so I can see the logic behind it. Me? I only read Razzball bottomless as to not ruin any freshly laundered garments during Giancarlo blurbs
January Grey is tough!
@Grey: Ain’t no half steppin!
You see that Paul Simon video JFOH posted the other day?
@Grey: I did and it was as awesome as it was unexpected.
Right?!
@Grey: the sleeves are rolled up!…most likely because it’s too warm for long sleeves. But rolled up nonetheless
Nice!
I have Rizzo in a dynasty league.. how far ahead of a Freeman is he?
I have a offer of Freeman + Betts for Rizzo… is that worth biting on?
@tanner:
I should clarify… 30 man rosters… 10 keepers a team. HTH points league where SP rules due to high points for QS and W, -1 per K for hitters.
I’d want Rizzo, but that trade could go either way depending on Betts… Rizzo is much better than Freeman
So hype for another season of fantasy baseball where my team will crap the bed more violently than me after a dozen ex-lax and bean tacos while I pine for the glory days of the 2013 RCL.
Ha… Optimism!
Keeper and contract league…here are my decisions so far…any changes?
G. Stanton: 4 year contract $29
A. Rendon: 2 year contract $5
E. Hosmer: 2 year contract $23
B. Posey: 2 year contract $25
(All of these contracts lose a year at the start of the season)
Keepers with next year’s price:
S. Strasburg: $21
T. Tulowitski: $29
T. Frazier: $10
B. Harper $10
My other options to wild card are J. Arrieta ($5), R. Castillo @ $5, or D. Gordon @ $7. Any changes to my keepers? Thanks.
Not really sure what you’re asking… Are you keeping everyone outside of your wild card?
@Grey: Sorry…The contracted players are kept. My initial thoughts are to keep Tulo, Strasburg, Harper, and Frazier as my additional keepers. Do you agree with these keepers or would you keep one or more of the following: Arrieta, Gordon, Castillo…I also have Hamels and Greinke to choose from but they lack the value of the other player.
Rusney over Tulo
10 team keeper
Already keeping Goldschmidt (Rd 7), B Hamilton (Rd 17), and A Chapman (Rd 19)
Can keep 3 of the following:
Kershaw (Rd 2)
G. Cole (Rd 20)
B. Dozier (Rd 22)
K. Bryant (Rd 22)
J. Pederson (Rd 22)
Which 3 to keep? Also, keep Kershaw or trade him for someone with more value?
Thanks, Grey!
Dozier, Kershaw, Pederson… Trade Kershaw if you get a better keeper than what you have
Rankings day AND the return of Crammy all at once?
Piddle Piddle Piddle.
Now gimme some OTS, and I’ll start doing ass doughnuts on the carpet like a chihuahua with a tapeworm…
@Kid A: I talked to him via email today, give it some time to make your donuts
Ha!
@Kid A: And, Mo comes out of retirement to close out the series!
@Kid A: start making donuts
Question about draft strategy and using your ranks… Let’s say I want to draft using your ranks (not too far from the truth). Let’s also say that most of my league drafts according to how ESPN pre-draft ranking is (later in the draft they consider needs). I found out last year that ESPN allows you to substitute your ranking for their ranking for drafting purposes, so you can see who’s left on the draft board sorted according to you rankings. I did that last year and had a good draft but I found that I could have done a lot better.
For example, you and I both thought Jose Bautista was going to be a lot better than ESPN thought. You had him 14. I had him 18. ESPN had him 46th! I ended up picking him with the 23rd overall pick (3.3 in a 10 team draft) when there was a decent chance I could have waited until my 43rd pick (again assuming my league mates go by ESPN ranking).
So the question is how I should adjust the ranks I put in for drafting purposes so I am optimizing the value my picks (value in this case is the difference between when I pick a player and where I have him ranked).
My first reaction was, if I value someone higher than ESPN does, take the player’s ESPN rank and subtract a certain number. If I value someone less than ESPN does, rank that player with the same ranking I have.
Does that sound right? If so, what do you think that “certain number” is? Should I set the certain number as a percentage of the difference between the 2 ranks? So in Bautista’s case, maybe I subtract 30% of the difference, so I would rank him 41 instead as compared to ESPN’s 46. If so, what’s a best guess at a percentage?
If it doesn’t sound right, what would you suggest?
I unfortunately won’t know until 5 minutes before the draft what order and though I’d like to have both lists in front of me, after the first couple of rounds our draft tends to get a lot faster – the league manger moves the amount of time from 90 seconds to 30 seconds just to get it done. So….if I have my best guess ranking considering the above definition of value in the system it would make drafting a lot easier and “accurate.”
I use my rankings for drafts… My top 400 open on my computer… So, if I have a player at 70th and ESPN has him at 150th, I wait a few rounds if guys are above him in the draft room…
@Grey: Thanks for the reply. The problem is when the draft gets to 30 seconds or less starting in the 4th round (most of my league mates would make their picks in 20 seconds or less to be safe especially if some are just picking the next ranked ESPN guy), all of the sudden it’s way to hard to keep up with scratching guys off of my rankings while checking what my needs vs who’s left all while players are yelling trash talk etc.
Any other thoughts about how to accomplish this?
You don’t have 30 seconds or less, there’s other people in your league drafting in front of you, so have some alternates before it’s your turn…
@Tom: do mocks at whatever site you’re drafting for, have both your own ranks and site’s, so you can flip back and forth (i know this is easily doable in yahoo, anyway), get ready with who you want, but like Grey said, get a feel for where those guys usually go, and you won’t have to grab them as high as you have them ranked sometimes. If the time is a problem only join leagues with 90 seconds per pick.
Ballsy putting Rendon at 10 but I like it. Dude has upside written all over his Latin mustache
Ha, nice
Grey, you’re my favorite
Thanks, Banana!
From the department of what could go rwong department
I love the Rendon call, Albright. Just the kind of forecast that has served you well in the past. So many of the peripherals support this prediction. ISO, BB/K rate, SB%, batted ball distance, prospect status, just a ton to say, not only repeatable with upside.
I really only found two things to give me paws. One is there is some suggestion of a sag in the splits. His Sept/Oct was bolstered by a very high BABIP. But for the most part his splits are luck consistent. Not too much of a concern.
Here’s my thing. He mashed fastballs last year. 13th best vs the fastball among qualified players per Fangraphs. And he saw a lot of fastballs. One of 28 players to see 60% or more fastballs, one of only three players to see 60% or more fastball and hit at least 20 home runs (A. Gonzalez, M. Trout). Just to give you an idea who sees fastballs, the top 5 last year were Revere, Hamilton, Span, Jeter and D. Gordon. Segura, Aoki, LeMahie, Eaton, Andrus, Hechavarria all on the list of top 20 fastballs faced. He also saw a fair number of strikes. Only Longoria and K. Davis (who were just ahead of him in Ks seen) saw as many strikes and also hit 20+ homers. In other words, the league treated him like a speed guy. When a guy has a season like Rendon had last year the league invariable increases their focus on getting him out. It seems clear that the approach suggested by the numbers is few fastballs and more out of the zone. His BB rate did climb in the second half and his ISO fell 40 points while his OBP went up. Any time you have a player with a track record this short, league adjustments always need to be part of the equation.
I still really like the boldness of the pick but something about it also sets off spider sense. I’ll see if I can dig up anything more on him.
@GhostTownSteve: welcome back buttermaker!
@J-FOH: you know I’m in! FCL !!!
@GhostTownSteve: Please tell me that this is so…this is he…this is so he…him!
When Gregor Blanco woke up one morning from unsettling dreams, he found himself changed in his bed into a monstrous vermin…
Please don’t dig up anymore. You over analyzed the fuck out of the pick and now we all have a migraine
Good stuff! I’d be interested in how awful he was against breaking pitches… Also how well he adjusts… He seems like the type that could adjust… Not a guy that hacks at everything and showed even better plate disclipine in the minors…
@GhostTownSteve: the prodigal son returns. don’t ever leave us again, you beautiful bastard.
Eww, an ever so rare f*bomb!
Can’t wait for your positional rankings and pairings!!
They’re coming!
@Buge Hoobs: agreed…and agreed
I’ve been a follower on the Grey Train for a few years now and I’m loving that the rankings have begun BUT
This top 10 is pure lunacy. It could end up being right but too many risky plays for my taste. Take out Abreu, Rendon, Rizzo and Jones and hello to Kershaw, C Gomez, R Cano and J Bautista
Just an opinion but I like safety in my first round not one season wonders who are just as likely to fall quite a bit.
First time disagreeing with the boss since I turned up here too
Guess we’ll see…
@The badger: the lack of kershaw doesn’t have anything to do with “reaching” or recency bias (like it at least could be with the hitters); there’s mountains of theory and data on this site for years about just why pitchers aren’t ranked in top end of rankings. And saying Jones is a one season wonder leads us to the wonder of whether or not you actually read the above. And if Jones is somehow a one season wonder what would that make Cargo 2?
Getting Trout is like getting Gretzky in the 80s– u get him u win.
Beyond him, I’m very frisky for the Dolor or Rizzo in the first with a side of Joey Bats or Carlos Gomez in the 2nd, and Donaldson in the 3rd. Cmon spring
Yup
Hey Grey, what do you think of Wada in a dynasty? How would you rank him with Volquez and Taylor Jordan? By the way we use QS instead of wins and also use K/9. Thanks a lot!
@asdfasdf: just guessing that anybody is nearly any young pitcher with chance to stick as SP might be higher than volquez in anything with K/9
Mc Rankings = I’M LOVING IT
Adonis… Giancarlo…. * Swooning in poon
Ha
Grey.. I’m in a little bit of a pickle here. I own Abreu, Jones, McCutchen, Rendon and Rizzo…….. And yes, I won my fantasy league last year. Who would your keepers be in order? I am definitely keeping Abreu since I am losing my 8th round pick. These are the rounds (and the pick I would lose) I got the others last year…
McCutchen (1)
Jones (3)
Abreu (8)
Rizzo (7)
Rendon (20)
I’d go in order of my top ten
But is there great keeper value in Cutch? I mean I am losing a 1st round pick for him as to where I would be losing a 20th round pick for Rendon
Ah… Yeah, true… Go Rendon…