This is one of the most difficult posts to write all year. Maybe I shouldn’t try to write this post with my feet. Eff it, you know what? No guts, no glory. No toes, no post either, naw mean? There’s just so many different ways the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball could go. Maybe next year I’ll write a top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball with a ten way tie for the tenth ranked guy. Last year, I had Jose Bautista higher than anyone and Jay Bruce. You win some, you lose some. I also had Pujols, Votto and Puig in the top twenty. Again, win, lose and…DRAW! It’s one word…A can of spinach with an X through it…A hamburger…Wimpy! Looking into my crystal ball tells me this year is gonna be even harder. Pitchers are dominating the sport. Doesn’t mean I can go completely crackers and just put ten starters in the top twenty. That shizz would be crumby! I wouldn’t draft a starter in the top twenty so I won’t tell you to do it. Finding twenty hitters isn’t going to be easy, but, while thinking of me as your weird uncle that you can only talk about baseball with, let’s find them together. Remember, one pick does not a team make. Here’s just twenty picks you should make. All the positional rankings will live under the 2015 fantasy baseball rankings. Anyway, here’s the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball:
11. Jose Bautista – This tier started in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball. This tier ends here. I called this tier, “The ceiling can’t hold us.” Up until this point, the tier name was referring to each player’s upside. Bautista might have 50-homer upside, but I’d think of the tier name for Bautista more like there’s an actual ceiling above where he plays his home games and he hits the ball high. No, it doesn’t work as well. Just shoot me. Member that show? It sucked. But beyond that would they even name a show that in today’s climate? There would be about 15 network execs having a symposium about how if there’s a shooting, the name of the show will be in poor taste. Honestly, if someone tried to name a show I Love Lucy now, there would be execs wondering if people would construe Lucy as Loosey and loose women and they’d change it to, “Hashtag Lucille Loves Latinos.” Any the hoo! Bautista is one of the few hitters with 50-homer ability. Do I think he comes anywhere near that? Aw, heck no, cuz! But he can hit 35 homers in only 130 games and that’s a sight for sick-of-seeing-slap-hitter eyes. 2015 Projections: 95/33/101/.272/5
12. Clayton Kershaw – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until here. I call this tier, “Draft Kershaw if your eleven other leaguemates are in a plane crash the day before your draft.” Saying I’d draft Kershaw here is lip service. Since there’s always a few slow on the uptake by the concept of lip service, I’ll explain. Kershaw will be drafted in the first five picks of every draft. There’s no way he’ll be available here. If he is available here, then I’d draft him. It’s a scenario that won’t happen in any league. He seems safer than any of these hitters, but you can find so much pitching later, I refuse to rank him any higher. Because we enjoy the concept of logic and how it’s twisted by ESPN. In their early top 250, they say Posey should be drafted because catching is so shallow. Then about 17 words later, they say starting pitching is the deepest position. So, naturally, you’d think they have starters buried in their rankings since it’s deep, right? Nope. They have 4 SPs in the top 20 and Kershaw 4th overall. Again, I’d draft Kershaw here, but there’s no way he’ll still be on the board by this point. Don’t worry, I can get you a 3.25 ERA or lower drafting only pitchers after the top 50. Or my name isn’t Grey Albright, Fantasy Master Lothario (please don’t abbreviate it). 2015 Projections: 18-6/2.22/0.95/232
13. Bryce Harper – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Ramirez. I call this tier, “There’s a pattern.” I’m not going to tell you the pattern. I’m going to let you guess the pattern (okay, I do tell you the pattern; I just can’t resist your chubby cheeks!). Let’s see if you can guess what the guys in this tier have in common (could someone tell Outside Parenthesis Grey that he just tells everyone the pattern?). No, the pattern isn’t that all of these guys are ranked in my top 20 (ugh, just tell them!). No, the pattern is not an upside thing (grr…). Okay, I’ll just tell you (FINALLY). The pattern is all of these guys have power and speed without killing you in any other categories. Donaldson is the only one without 10+ steal speed possibility, and, even him, I could see a surprising 12-ish steals. Offense is on a downswing yadda-cubed. We know the sob story. I’ll go on eBay and bid on the world’s smallest violin for MLB’s offense. Due to the downswing in offense, it is imperative that you draft players that can give you a little bit of everything. 40-homer seasons from hitters is about as rare as seeing a male Bruce Jenner. Now, it’s all about 25-homer, 8-15-steal hitters. As for Harper, he’s had a season of 22 HRs/18 SBs and 20 HRs/11 SBs already and he’s only 22 years old. I like the bounce back here as much as I hate his cockadoodie haircut. 2015 Projections: 87/25/101/.284/12
14. Justin Upton – Here’s what I said this offseason, “The CIA’s plan to work out of a Petco concession stand because the stadium is so quiet is looking far less like a good plan to stay covert. “Did you just ask for two mustard packets with your hot pretzel because you have some information for us or because you simply want an extra mustard packet? If it’s the latter, one per customer.” Probably the worst call for a covert operation’s headquarters since the CIA opened an office in Vegas in the 1940’s. “It’s just a desert, no one’s coming here.” So, the Padres traded for Justin Upton because they are obviously intent on deflating outfielder stats everywhere. At least this outfielder has two hips that don’t resemble Abe Vigoda’s. (Still alive as of this writing, but may not be by the time you read this.) Maybe the Padres can trade Kemp for Pujols to create the Up-My-Pujols outfield. I came down hard on Matt Kemp in the non-sexual way when he went to San Diego, but that had as much to do with him being the first new bat the Padres acquired (no one around him in the lineup yet), his health and his flakiness. As with the Myers trade, I’m less inclined to write off Upton simply due to Petco. Upton’s a guy in his prime that has hit everywhere when healthy. I don’t like to put too much weight on a player’s stats in their new stadium when they were still playing as a visiting player, but Upton has 10 HRs and a .291 average in 172 ABs in Petco in his career. That’s a HR every 17.2 ABs, which is better than his career rate (1 HR every 23 at-bats). Petco played like its usual “Are you sure the fences are out there? I can’t see them” self last year, but in 2013 it wasn’t as bad after they moved in the fences prior to that season, so I think last year’s putrid offense was more the Padres hitters streaming into a confluence of crap. (By the by, Confluence of Crap was my worst selling album, despite Rick Reuben producing it. I should’ve paid the extra money for the non-imposter, Rick Rubin.) Even in Petco, Upton feels like a 25-27 homer guy, which is what he was before. His steals are leaving his game quicker than a rhinoceros with plantar fasciitis, and he’s not a huge average guy, but writing him off due to Petco feels a bit too easy. He’ll be hitting in the middle of a lineup that is at least as good as the Braves last year and in a nearly neutral ballpark.” And that’s me quoting me! 2015 Projections: 81/27/95/.266/8
15. Ian Desmond – Two years in a row now Desmond has been the top ranked shortstop in fantasy. He also has three straight years of 20/20. In two of those years, he hit .280 or higher. For a shallow as shizz position, Desmond has been better than Robinson Cano. Yet, Desmond has never appeared in a top ten on any site anywhere to my knowledge. He needs a hindsight-sniffing dog to tell everyone how good he’s going to be! Don’t love some of Desmond’s peripherals from last year. His K-rate ballooned to almost striking out once in every three plate appearances. Sloth from The Goonies in a fine dining restaurant has better plate appearances. He did add onto his walk rate and…Well, gee, Vern, he gets 20/20 every year, that accounts for something. 2015 Projections: 75/21/87/.251/22
16. Josh Donaldson – When he went to the Blue Jays, I said this, “The A’s traded Josh Donaldson for Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin and Franklin Barreto. I had this cheap friend who would go to the supermarket and buy things that were on sale. Not because he wanted them, but because he was cheap and it was a good deal. So, he’d come home with groceries of only things that were on sale and for dinner he’d end up having a box of couscous and a Tofutti Fudge Treat. I’d say to him, “Do you even like this stuff you’re buying?” He’d say, “No, but I do like the price.” This is what happened to Billy Beane. He doesn’t like Lawrie, but four players for one? What a deal! There’s one other explanation. Everyone is constantly telling Beane he’s brilliant. He’s so gee-dee brilliant (and handsome!), they cast Brad Pitt to play him. His detractors are nil. So, he thinks he can do no wrong and then does a trade like Donaldson’s, where no one can check him. If anyone else did this trade besides Beane, people would be saying he got Cosby’d. Since it’s Beane, I’ve heard people say the trade is a bit ‘underwhelming.’ Underwhelming?! The A’s traded away their best hitter, that is only 28 years old, for the Blue Jays worst hitter. If someone did this trade in your fantasy league, you’d quit your league, come into the comments here and say, “I’m done with stupid people.” The A’s five and six-hole hitters now? Ike Davis and Brett Lawrie. Well, lucky they still have Andy Parrino. Andy Parrino will be played by Joe Jonas in the Moneyball sequel. “Coach, it’s Christmas, why are you at my house? Okay, I’ll play for your A’s, but first let me sing a charity concert in Denver.” From a fantasy prospective, nothing really ever was gonna hurt Donaldson. The Blue Jays lineup looks stacked now, but to that I say the Rangers looked stacked going into last year too. Edwin and Bautista aren’t the models of good health, Donaldson, though, has been. The last two years he’s played 158 games, and has hit 24 homers and .301, then 29 homers and .255, while chipping in 5 and 8 steals, respectively. He’s in the prime of his career, as previously mentioned, about to be in a better lineup and in a much better park for home runs, if not offense, in general. Game, set, tennis term! I don’t see him hitting for a great average again, like in 2013, but 27 homers and great counting stats without killing you in average seems not only doable, but likely. The only question in my mind is where he’s batting. My guess is fifth (Reyes, Martin, Bautista, Edwin, Donaldson), assuming everyone is healthy.” And that’s me quoting me! Since that, the Blue Jays also acquired Michael Saunders, who I am crazy about this year. The addition of my latest Trapper Keeper crush has me pushing Donaldson’s projections up a tad and into the top 20. Yes, I realize as crazy as I am for the Blue Jays this year is as crazy as I was for the Rangers last year when they all bombed. This has me slightly concerned, but that’s superstitious shizz and I can’t let what my dog psychic cloud my judgement but butt-sniffing. I will not step on any sidewalk cracks for the next six months though, just in case. 2015 Projections: 84/29/102/.262/8
17. Anthony Rendon – Before we all have a conniption at my Rendon ranking and throw our breakfast at our computer screen and say things like, “I hope you fall asleep at the barber and they accidentally buzz off your mustache.” Last year, as a 23-year-old, Rendon ranked 15th on our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater. 15th overall. Above Carlos Gomez, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Jones, Justin Upton and Albert Pujols, to name but a few guys who ranked nearby. Our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater is the best in the business. We’ve gone over many times why it’s better than ESPN’s. I’m not gonna rehash that. I do love to rehash potato latkes. Going over what I’ve already gone over is a recipe for aggravation. That recipe is: 1 tsp. of eye rolls; 1 tsp. of smugness; 1 tsp. of having no idea what you’re talking about; 1 tsp of EVOO. Rendon has already been better than a few guys I ranked above him and he’s getting better. His 21 homers last year weren’t a fluke. He only had a 10.4% HR/FB, which is plenty repeatable. Everywhere he played he hit for some power. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit more homers in 2015. Call me a believer. Oh, and he hit for average too. His .287 average last year seems like it could be on the low side. My only big concern is his 17 steals last year came out of nowhere. He frequently only stole one base in entire previous years and hadn’t stolen more than one bag in any one season outside of Rookie Ball. It’s hard to say we can expect 17 steals again, but maybe Matt Williams thinks of Rendon as a base-stealing threat and keeps sending him. It’s not like he was caught a lot (only 3 times). I see a guy on the upswing with great eligibility, and I’m Rendon’d powerless to move him down in the rankings. UPDATE: Not Rendon’d that powerless, apparently, because his knee is giving me the heebie jeebies. Kneebie jeebies? Yeah, that’s it. Had to move Rendon out of the top 20 and down in my top 400 due to his knee. 2015 Projections: 91/19/68/.286/9
17. Yasiel Puig – Have you figured out the pattern yet? (Don’t start with the freakin’ pattern again!) Oh, that’s right I told you (YES!!!). Guys that can give you power and speed. Puig has a few other things going for him. He has a .305 career average after 1072 plate appearances. He’s only 24 years old. He’s a bit of an enigma. Okay, that’s not going for him. He might think it is though, hence the enigma thing. From one at-bat to another, he can look like one of the best and worst hitters in baseball. Some days he’s Puig, some days he looks like he’s trying to put lipstick on a pig. Actually, that can drag on for months. Off the top of my head, I’d say he had some of the worst months for a guy that had some of the best months. In May, he hit 8 HRs and .398. In June, 0 HRs and .248. In July, .351 with 2 homers. In August, zero homers and .216. This is taking Saberhagenmetrics to a whole new level. His righty/lefty splits aren’t as purdy as I’d like them; he hit .258 with 2 homers vs. lefties. But if there’s one guy that can hit .400 for two months with 20 homers, then nothing for two months, it’s Puig. Obviously, beware if you’re in a H2H league. 2015 Projections: 96/24/72/.298/15
18. Hanley Ramirez – When Hanley went to the Sawx, I said this, “Earlier this offseason, it was reported that the Red Sox coaches didn’t like Yoenis Cespedes. Wait until they get a load of Hanley Ramirez! If you were to put “Happiness That You Have Hanley” on the Y-axis and “Time Spent With Hanley” on the X-axis, you would find a line that starts at the top left and slopes right down to the bottom right. For what it’s Wuertz, the enjoyment of Hanley matches directly with the chart of Pancake Eating. After one bite, “Mmm, that is delicious.” After two bites, “Not bad at all.” After three bites, “I’m gonna try and douse these with some maple syrup.” After ten bites, “You gonna share your bacon or should I order my own?” That’s Hanley. Try to douse him with maple syrup, but when it’s July and your team is in the pennant chase and he has a sore hamstring, enjoy! From a real baseball standpoint, I hate the move for the Red Sox. You had Xander Bogaerts for short, you nabbed Panda for 3rd (which I’ll get to shortly) and now you have Hanley playing left and Home Run Derby Champion Yoenis that you have to trade for the most you can get. (By the by, I love that everyone refers to Yoenis as Home Run Derby Champion Yoenis, so I will now do the same.) That’s not even mentioning Allen Craig, Will Middlebrooks, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Daniel Nava and Juan Francisco. It’s kinda sad that all of those guys would be starting for the Astros (and Marlins and about ten other teams) and for the Red Sox they’re trade bait. Maybe the Red Sox will also sign Han’s brother, Head. From a fantasy perspective, this is about as good as it gets for Hanley. Will this mean he’ll play 150 games? No, I didn’t say that. It’s hard to account for insouciance (Word of the Day!). If he shows up at Fenway in April and wants to play, great. If he shows up at Fenway in April and doesn’t want to play until August, it wouldn’t surprise me. If we get 150 games from him (it will be nothing short of a miracle), I’d give him the projections of 86/24/91/.266/17. I’d only count on a 130 games though.” And that’s me quoting me! 2015 Projections: 72/20/84/.268/12
19. Nolan Arenado – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until here. I call this tier, “Give me some sweet, hot love, Nolan Arenado.” Yes, I considered Michael Brantley. And Jose Altuve. And CarGonzalez. And Freeman. And Beltre. And F-Her. And “F-This I’ll just take a spa day.” And everyone. I even considered Corey Dickerson. Shame on you for thinking I didn’t consider all of those schmohawks before ranking Arenado here. The most important thing you can do when you’re drafting is… Damn, where did I leave that most important thing? Did I leave it in my car? And now the car is in the shop, damn! Let me call the mechanic. “Hello, this Grey. Yes, the guy with the handsome mustache. Could you check the glove compartment for me? I left in there the most important thing to tell people about drafting. Yes, the note written in Sharpie on the belly of the live turtle. It’s not live anymore? Hmm…” The most important thing for drafting is drafting for the upcoming year and not drafting for what players just did. It sounds simple, and it is, but it still trips up people. You want guys that are trending up. As I go through the laundry list of great attributes Arenado possesses, keep in mind he’s only going to be 24 years old. First, he was a great prospect. Everyone loved him in the minors. He hit .388 one year, .298 another year, .364 another… Pretty much he was the bee’s knees and toes, knees and toes, knees and toes. Second, he doesn’t strike out. For guys with at least 18 homers, there was only five guys with a better strikeout rate. A who’s who of older players who know what the hell they are doing: V-Mart, Brantley, Pujols, Posey, Beltre. Third, there’s no third. Fourth, as you’ll see when I go over the top 20 3rd basemen, the position is a joke. Fifth, his batted ball profile added more fly balls and they went a further distance. That sounds like a nice way to say, “He will hit more home runs this year,” and it is. Sixth, he didn’t sacrifice batting average for power. He only had a .298 BABIP (about neutral luck) and he hit .287. Seventh, when at a conveyor belt sushi place, don’t sit next to fattest person in the place. Eighth, he plays half his games in Coors! Ninth, in 2013, he had some weird splits that showed he struggled vs. righties. Last year, those were corrected. Tenth, there should be different levels of NSFW. How about NSFC (Not Safe For Church)? NSFWIYWIACM (Not Safe For Work If You Work In A Coal Mine)? NSFSSNTTA (Not Safe For Someone Standing Next To Tom Arnold)? C’mon, Internet, let’s get specific! Eleventh, there wasn’t even a tenth, why would there be an eleventh? Yes, I have Arenado higher than anyone, and there’s one reason above all the other listed reasons: because I want to own him on every team! 2015 Projections: 84/27/98/.292/5
