In Los Angeles, Matt Kemp played for one of the most popular sports franchises in the world in the 2nd largest city in the country.  In San Diego, the Padre fans pride themselves not on wins and losses, but how well the Chablis goes with the brie while they watch the game from the picnic area.  In Los Angeles, Matt Kemp went to all the hottest nightclubs.  In San Diego, he’ll be frequenting places that look like the bar where Jodie Foster was in The Accused.  In Los Angeles, Matt Kemp hung out with the hottest celebrities.  In San Diego, “Hey, is that Natalie from The Facts of Life?”  In Los Angeles, Matt Kemp dated Rihanna.  In San Diego, Kemp’s dating Natalie.  It’s only a mere two and half hour drive, but the culture shock is going to hit Kemp as soon as he arrives because he’s going to have to surrender his Lamborghini, there’s a town ordinance that everyone must drive a Jeep with no doors that they put plastic bags over when it rains once a year.  On the backside of the site, I’m currently churning through rankings that will be coming in January.  I nearly ranked Kemp higher than I want to admit to now.  I was believing the 150 games played, 25 HR, 8 SB, .287 season he had last year.  Whether I believe it or not, going to San Diego is going to hurt his value.  From hitting in the middle of an All-Star lineup to hitting in the middle of Yellowstone.  Kemp said on his first day in Petco, “It took some time to get my bearings.  In other parks, you can set yourself in the batter’s box by using the outfield fences as a guide.  Here, you have to assume the outfield fences are out there somewhere.”  Kemp has money coming to him either way, so if he became a 20 HR, 5 SB, .270 guy for a few years, it wouldn’t surprise me.  For 2015, I’ll give him the projections of 72/22/81/.276/8.  Oh, and, yes, I’m cautiously optimistic this means Joc Pederson will now be the starting center fielder in LA.  For more, I already went over my Joc Pederson fantasy.  Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves for 2015 fantasy baseball:

Yasmani Grandal – Went the other way in the Kemp trade.  Yeah, he’s now on sleeper radars.  The obvious:  better lineup, burgeoning power.  (By the by, Burgeoning is my favorite red wine.)  The less obvious:  fly ball rate is increasing, can play first base if A-Gon finally breaks down, was once a former top prospect, solid walk rate, and again he’s leaving Petco!  For straight fantasy value, I wouldn’t be surprised if Grandal outperforms Kemp in 2015.  I wouldn’t predict it, but it does feel like one of those crazy BOLD PREDICTIONS that people make.  Grandal does need to get his K-rate in order (inflated to 26% last year) otherwise he might only hit .198, but the possibility is here for a breakout.  For 2015, I’ll give him 53/17/64/.231/2.

Rick Porcello – Traded to the Sawx.  The Red Sox are going for quantity of starters over quality this offseason.  Next thing you know they’ll make an offer for Bartolo.  You can’t find more quantity than Bartolo.  In Fenway, Porcello has a lifetime 6.41 ERA.  Sawx fans, you are now contenders.  Why even play the games?!  Seriously, put the crown that was once worn by Babe Ruth on your head and prance through Faneuil Hall in your gotchies.  I’m just joshing.  That ERA was only in 19 2/3 IP and doesn’t mean anything.  Porcello had the 20th lowest fly ball rate, and regularly induces ground balls.  He should be able to handle Fenway about as well as he handled Comerica….Where he had a lifetime ERA of 4.58 in 529 IP!  Let’s name him the World Series MVP right now, Sox fans!  You got this thing in the bag!  Porcello should be a serviceable fifth fantasy starter for mixed leagues in matchups, but I’m not a huge fan.  For 2015, I’ll give him 14-8/3.91/1.29/121.

Yoenis Cespedes – Went the other way to the Tigers.  Yoenis is going to love Detroit.  It’s the last city on earth that loves 1950’s American-made automobiles as much as Havana, Cuba.  Last year, he hit 22 homers, which sounds about right.  Crazily, his HR/FB% was only 9.6%.  If you know the tiniest bit about batted ball profiles, you know that means he hit a crapton of fly balls.  You’d be right.  He hit everything in the air.  No wonder he hit .249 in Oakland in 189 ABs last year.  That park is a rectangle that is 500 feet to center and five hundred feet behind first and third base.  The Tigers led the AL in Home BABIP, and had a virtually neutral for HR/FB%.  What does all this mean?  Yoenis was behind the eight ball in Oakland, better in Fenway and just fine in Detroit.  Due to his growing propensity for fly balls, he could hit 20 homers or 35 homers next year.  Fo’really.  For 2015, I’ll give him 73/26/87/.254/7.

Alfredo Simon – Will be replacing Porcello’s rotation spot on the Tigers.  I try to keep this about fantasy over real world implications, but the Tigers essentially traded Porcello for Cespedes and Simon; I’d say the Tigers were the winners here.  They made their offense markedly better and Simon should be able to give them roughly what they lost from Porcello.  For fantasy, I don’t like Simon.  He should feel comfortable in Detroit where his pregame routine of shooting his gun into the air isn’t frowned on, but his K-rate last year was 5.82.  For that strikeout rate to work, he’d need a minus-2 walk rate.  Instead, he had a 2.6 BB/9.  Chuck that in with his 4.05 xFIP and the move to the AL, and I wouldn’t touch him with a nine-foot pole that then has twelve one-inch straws glued onto its end.  For 2015, I’ll give him 11-10/4.17/1.33/109.

Justin MastersonRed Sox signed him.  Prior to this and their other pitcher signings this offseason, Boston wrote all free agent pitcher names on the bullpen wall, then coated those names with a layer of Super Glue.  When finished, they opened the park to a visiting group of rhesus monkeys and escorted them into the bullpen.  Where the crap hit and stuck, they signed.  Masterson lost a ton on his velocity last year.  So much, it appeared to be a result of an injury.  He said it was his knee.  If he’s healthy, he could be the best Red Sox starter, capable of a 3.50 ERA with 190 Ks.  It’s a bit much to expect that though.  For 2015, I’ll give him 11-9/4.02/1.32/145.

Kendrys Morales – The Royals got their replacement unathletic DH.  Whew, who was going to clog the bases otherwise?  The Royals couldn’t rely on Alex Gordon breaking a foot and playing through it on crutches like he’s Missy from Survivor (Am I the only one that still watches this?  Prolly.).  Morales also fills that new need on the Royals for the Largest Player With Under Ten Homer Power.  Unless they were to sign Jose Molina, there wasn’t many guys they could’ve signed after losing Butler.  Last year, Morales hit .218, but that was partly due to unfavorable luck.  He should be good for a .250 average as long as his plate discipline doesn’t continue to whither as it did last year.  For 2015, I’ll give him 60/18/74/.249.

Mark Reynolds – Signed by the Cardinals.  On the surface, this seems like a whatever move that will only benefit daily NL-Only leagues, since Mini Donkey will only bat vs. lefties.  Unfortch, this will cost Matt Adams ABs.  Adams has spent his life struggling to find his ABs, don’t take them from him now!  “If you hold my left moob up, I can point to an ab.”  That’s Matt Adams locating his ABs for a passerby.  For 2015, I’ll give Reynolds 39/16/43/.217/4.

Ross Detwiler – Traded to the Rangers.  He throws plenty fast (93 MPH fastball), but doesn’t strikeout anyone (5.57 K/9).  His K-rate makes him seem like he’s a soft-tossing lefty.  His problem:  he throws his fastball all the time.  How did this guy get to the majors with one pitch?  Last year, he threw his fastball 85.7% of the time.  For qualified starters, Bartolo threw a fastball the most (82.6% of the time).  Sure, Detwiler was a reliever and they can throw the same pitch over and over, but when Detwiler was a starter in 2013, he threw the fastball 88% of the time.  He threw it more as a starter!  No wonder he doesn’t get Ks; he throws like a batting cage machine.  For 2015, I’ll give him 8-10/4.24/1.38/101.

Ervin Santana – Signed with the Twins.  There’s an old chap in Minnesota who heard Ervin’s headed to his great state, and briefly thought his 60-year dream of the Minneapolis Lakers returning has finally been answered.  Note to free agent pitchers:  if you have to go to the AL, may as well be to pitch your home games in Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome.  Though, that’s only accurate per the strictest sense of knocking down homers.  The Retrodome has played well for BABIP and runs of late.  Either way, Ervin just pitched in the AL Central in 2013 and had a 3.24 ERA, so he’s capable of being a number three fantasy starter.  For 2015, I’ll give him 12-10/3.58/1.27/168.

Mat Latos – Traded to the Marlins.  If the Marlins are making a run at a championship this year, that means they could be selling off their entire team this time next year and moving to Montreal.  I’m not even half-joking.  I’m like twenty-nine percent joking.  You know who is going to accept this trade with open arms?  Dallas Latos.  She looks forward to the challenge of insulting a new fan base on Twitter.  She might need to learn some Spanish curses.  The only thing stopping Latos from being a number one fantasy starter is health.  He had knee surgery in the early part of last year and then got skipped in September due to an elbow bruise.  When I Googled updates for Latos’s elbow, I swear to you I found multiple results that read, “Mat Latos’s wife says the injury is minor.”  She’s one dye job from being Anna Benson.  Latos is too young (27) to be breaking down, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, but he does come with some risk.  For 2015, I’ll give him 13-7/3.19/1.17/181.

Anthony DeSclafani – Headed to Cincy in the Latos trade.  Threw 162 IP last year and logged major Frequent Flyer miles as he moved from Rookie Ball to the majors, stopping at Double-A and Triple-A on the way.  Prospect Mike said about him, “Like the other pitchers listed (in the middle portion of the Marlins system), DeSclafani may never be more than a mid-rotation starter. With several of these arms getting closer to the majors there simply won’t be enough room for everyone either. Trades or shifts to the bullpen could be in the cards.”  More like a trade could be in the Cards or the Reds.  Huh, Mike, huh?  Right now, DeSclafani is in the Reds rotation, but the only one that should be excited about that is his mustachioed mother on Staten Island.

Dan Jennings – Acquired by the White SoxDan Jennings will work out of the bullpen and if White Sox go to a bar for trivia night.

 

  1. Racehorse says:
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    You take the good, you take the bad,
    you take them both and there you have
    The Cubs in last, the Cubs in last

    [ sorry, I couldn’t help myself — Sox in 2015! ]

    The Tigers now have Cespedes in LF, JD Mart in RF, and lefty hitting Gose in CF.

    Q: Do you think Rajai Davis sees enough ABs to remain The Undisputed King of SAGNOF in 2015?

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Racehorse: Ha… Rajai will platoon-slash-fill in for injured guys… Which is only slightly less than he’s done for the last year or so…

  2. John Rocker's Twitter says:
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    Maybe Kemp can channel Dave Winfield’s coolness in the piss & $hit old school Padre unis. Wasn’t Steve Garvey sent to pasture there?

    What does the Padres’ lineup look like next year 1-8 ???

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @John Rocker’s Twitter: platoon, Kemp, platoon, Gyorko in the middle… Some more platoons around that… Yeah, bunch of players were sent to pasture there…

  3. Anthony says:
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    I have the opportunity to trade Dee Gordon for Hamels and Gyorko…take it and run?! Huge keeper league, also H2H most categories, also 12 teams. Also happy offseason Grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Anthony: Sounds decent…You too!

  4. Powerslave says:
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    please, please, please tell me this is the year Aldrenton Simmons hits over 50 extra bases, like 32 doubles, 5 triples, 16 HRs, please, and his babip hoovers around .300.., please……

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Powerslave: You have a high-stakes bet with someone?

      • Powerslave says:
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        @Grey: lol, yeah, against Alexei Ramirez, speaking of gambling, since it seems a 25 million dollar bet is nothing this days(MLB terms), do you see a scenario where Cliff Lee looks healthy, passes all his “physicals”, and the Red Sox go, “hey Minaya Jr, I mean Amaro Jr, since your farm system sucks, here’s some c prostects and we’ll take care of that 25 million “Tab”….., sorry for the long post…, Get well!!!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’m well, thanks! I see that happening with Lee in July with a contender… Could be the Sox… He’ll need to prove his health on the Phils first…

  5. Justin says:
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    Standard league, 5 keepers. I have rendon and altuve. Also keeping muggy, upton, and bum bum. Looking at trading altuve. Where do you rank him as a keeper? Puig is possible trade target …

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Justin: I’d take Puig

  6. royce! says:
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    Kemp has hit very well at Petco (.867 OPS over 214 AB). But if you’ve ever been to a Dodgers game at Petco, you know how he could have mistaken it for a home game. Some season ticket holders sell their tickets for Dodgers games 1. because they want to make some $, and, 2. because they hate Dodgers fans.

    • royce! says:
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      @royce!: Hadn’t finished my thought…toddler interruption…instead of battling with Dodgers fans (hopefully in a good hearted way, if that’s possible), Padres fans seem to use a Dodgers series as time to enjoy the chablis at home.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @royce!: Ha… re: Kemp in Petco — Never been a fan of taking a guy’s stats in his new park… Maybe he enjoyed hitting certain Padre pitchers, maybe he liked being away from home, maybe he does like Petco…Hard to say…

        • royce! says:
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          @Grey: He does seem like the sort of guy who would enjoy a nice wine and cheese pairing…

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Or at least that ramen we went for, I want ramen for lunch now…

            • royce! says:
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              @Grey: Oh, damn that sounds good. I have to be in court this afternoon and don’t trust myself to eat soup without getting it all over the front of my shirt. I seriously have to change clothes every time I eat pho b/c otherwise I reek like onions. I think I might be doing it wrong.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                No, that sounds like you’re doing it exactly right… You can’t ask for a continuance?

                • royce! says:
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                  @Grey: Hahaha that would be brilliant…”But your honor, today is SUCH a perfect day for ramen!”

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    “It’ll warm my innards!”

                    • SteveNZ says:
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                      @royce!: @Grey: I bet Kemp doesn’t wear the same shiny-ass suit at his Padres unveiling as he did when he signed his Dodgers extension…

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Ha! Too flashy!

                    • SteveNZ says:
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                      @Grey: What do people from SD wear? Apart from blue polo shirts with pink spiders on them that is…

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Haha… Military uniforms…

                    • royce! says:
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                      @Grey: THOSE SPIDERS WERE ORANGE.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      They’re more afraid of you than you are of them…

  7. J-FOH says:
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    Great great title Rudy, its Ken Jennings and Dallas Latos should have her own player page

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Totally! Agreed on Rudy too…

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: players wives/ girlfriends pages exclusively on razzball

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I seriously love that idea… Can we start with Scott Podsednik’s wife?

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: I’m on fire with ideas today

  8. Frank says:
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    Got offered cargo for votto in a keeper league, what am I missing? Do I just accept and move on. I’m pretty much all in this yr. 8×8 with obp slg and k’s against

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d take CarGo

      • Frank says:
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        @Grey: thanks and if I can move him for Bautista it’s advisable

  9. Corey says:
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    Hey Grey. Who’s the real Matt Holliday? The first-half guy from 2014 or the second-half? Because his stats always look good at the end of the year, my thinking is he has way more value in roto leagues than in head-to-head where it would be hard to draft him knowing he’s only going to wake up after the all-star break.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Players aren’t half to half guys, mostly noise in that… He is what he is over the course of a season…

  10. William says:
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    Ten team keeper league, 30 man rosters, 4×4 scoring. I can only keep 8 players. Here are 14 I’ve narrowed it down to:

    Pitching: J Zimmerman, Bumgarner, A Wood, Teheran, Street, S Casilla

    Hitting: Hanley, K Seager, Arenado, Kemp, Puig, Stanton, S Marte, J Heyward

    Which 8 should I keep? My first thought was Zimmerman, Bumgarner, Teheran, Street, Stanton, Marte, Puig, and then either Hanley or Arenado. Hanley could hit 30 HRs or 10, who knows in Boston…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      J Zimmerman, Bumgarner, Hanley, K Seager, Arenado, Kemp, Puig, Stanton, S Marte

      • William says:
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        So you put a word in with the commish of our league to let me keep 9 instead of 8? Awesome, thanks!

        :)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Oops, forget Seager

          • William says:
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            Thanks!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              No problem

  11. Andrew says:
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    What are your thoughts on where Yelich will bat in the lineup this season? Does the Gordon signing paint a pretty picture of Yelich batting 3rd in front of Stanton? I am thinking that could do wonders for his numbers. He’s on the outside looking in on my keeper sheet for my team coming into 2015. If he bats 3rd, would you keep him over the following in a 6X6 14 team Roto? with a $300 cap. Yelich is $11
    1. Puig $11
    2. Springer $63
    3. Altuve $16
    4. Sale $16
    5. Melancon $9
    6. Robertson $11.
    Thanks Grey

    • Andrew says:
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      Springer is $6…typo.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yelich’s the #2 hitter now likely…. I’d keep him over Melancon though anyway…

      • Andrew says:
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        Really? Worried about Tony Watson or just not enough opportunities? I thought of him as one of my better keepers We have to reach 1200 innings with 9 pitchers (any combo of SP, RP allowed) so I figure RP’s may be quite valuable this year.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          SAGNOF

  12. Ryan says:
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    Well, I did it. I clicked on the “Hot Cheerleader Wardrobe Fails” link…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hahahaha… And…?

  13. Wake Up says:
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    And, when you twist Simon’s right mipple, he murders you…literally!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      “On the store video, you can see the victim clearly purple nurple the accused.”

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Grey: Haha

  14. Sad Keanu says:
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    I’m in a 10 team 7-keeper auction league. Who would you prefer to keep? Longoria at $25 or Arenado at $8?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Arenado

      • Sad Keanu says:
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        @Grey: My thoughts too. Would you deal Harvey at $4 for Arenado at $8? I’m already keeping Kluber.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’d want Arenado

    • A Wesley Snipes Life says:
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      @Sad Keanu: after that shitshow of longo’s i’d rather have arenado even if he cost slightly more.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      You look like someone is standing outside your rainy window making faces at you.

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: that’s every day in my mind

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          A real martyr!

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: I am my own cause

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I can stand behind that (about 50 feet)

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Grey: you can’t catch me if I fall but you can shout condolences

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Can I just yell timber?

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: if you want to be that way then sure go ahead

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Aw…C’mon! Guess who I’m going to dinner with tonight? The guy you made me walk out on while he was performing!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Nooooo! Not the kiss of death!

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: you send Chris my best. If it wasn’t for de la I would of stayed ;)

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Ha, will do!

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: now im curious where you are eating. ..because I’m hungry.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      C&O Trattoria

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      It’s the furthest west I’ve been in nine months…

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: that chicken pepperonata sounds like a dish. The rest looks like pretty standard Italian fare

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, was very standard… It was just close to a play that his wife was directing afterwards…

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: did you send my apologies to chris?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      He didn’t care… The lead of the play we saw: Orson Bean… Who might be in one of my favorite scenes of all-time, it’s the 7 1/2 floor.

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: damn, another one of those guys you see on a bunch of things but can never place.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yup, and his wife was working the spotlight. The mom from Wonder Years!

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: He’s married to Mrs Arnold. I would not of cried…nope I would not of cried….oh, teenage years TV mom

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Haha… Yup!

  15. Wake Up says:
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    I’m changing it to…if you show Big J a mipple…he’ll look as though he will murder you!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Behind a rain-streaked window

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Wake Up: only if its pierced

      • Wake Up says:
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        @J-FOH: that was what my ex said to me when I asked her if she thought she would choke…

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Wake Up: I big hoopy for the PA is a mood killer

  16. Baby Bananagrabber says:
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    My dad says that David Ortiz looks like he wants to eat my dad

  17. slew says:
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    Looking at your MAGIC 8-ball, which team goes further in 2015, Cubs or White Sox?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      White Sox

  18. Sky

    Sky says:
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    Very random Nelson Cruz notes:

    1) Despite hitting .271 on the year with his 40 HRs, Nelson had three months in a row in which he hit under .220 (June – .215, July – .211, August – .216).

    2) As good of a hitter’s park as Camden is, Nelson only hit .252 there with 15 of his HRs. He hit .289 with 25 bombs on the road.

    3) Despite the injury prone tag, Nelson Cruz has only had one season in the last three where he didn’t play 159 games and that one was due to a PEDs suspension.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Because he signed with Mariners are you trying to find silver lining? Asking for a friend…

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        Haha, nope! Just random stats. I do think the DL prone tag might be misleading at this stage, especially if he plays a majority of his time at DH (which with the Mariners I believe he will) but I went and looked back at his time in Safeco; small sample but over the last 4 years there, he’s hit under .200. If someone is drafting him, they’re hoping for 40 doubles and 25 HRs to go with a .260 average…and after typing that, I’m laughing cuz I just looked back at your post on him. YUP! He went as the 35th overall pick in this mock draft I’m in and people down-voted Todd Frazier at pick 31 by me…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I don’t know if there’s any correlation but he seems to have stopped stealing bases and has stopped getting hurt…. I just looked at Frazier and I can’t get behind him at that price, but I’d like to hear his defense if you’re up to it.

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            For a guy that just finished 18th on Razzball’s player rater in 2014 I have to make a case? Let’s say the steals slip quite a bit. Like down to say 10. Let’s say the power goes down to 25 HRs. Let’s also say the average goes down to .255-.260. At that level, he’s Kyle Seager. Seager finished as the 41st best player according to the Player rater. I think I have room for more RBI/R with a healthy Reds lineup in 2015. That team was at half-mast pretty much all year. I feel like his floor is higher than he’s being given credit for.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Seager is a fair comparison… Frazier was caught stealing a lot, like a lot a lot… So, Votto and Bruce are healthy and hitting, do they keep sending a guy that keeps getting caught? That’s a concern. 10 seems fair, it could be lower. His HR/FB% was high for him, 25 seems fair, 22 seems possible… His average will come down likely and take with it counting stats… Your line and Seager comparison look right, 50-ish overall looks like the right call… I don’t think you were jumping the gun that much, but 31 does feel a bit high…

              • Big Magoo

                Big Magoo says:
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                @Grey: Frazier went 20/28 when attempting to steal, which isn’t too bad. Still a success rate of over 70%. Not ideal, but not terrible. I agree that he’s unlikely to steal 20 again though. He’ll probably regress to the 10-12 range. Price likes to run, so he should continue to get the green light on the basepaths… His power looks to be for real too. Average flyball distance was 293.60 ft (39th highest in MLB). I think his HR/FB ratio from last year is repeatable, or at least something close to it… My concern with Frazier is that he basically had one good month in June in which he hit .316 with 8 HRs and 8 SBs. Is that repeatable? Does he have another hot streak like that in him? Not sure…

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  He also had a huge number of PAs last year…

              • Sky

                Sky says:
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                Oh I understand. You were just saying to state the case. I agree about the SB. His attempts despite the lack of efficiency were probably directly correlated with an offense that couldn’t score runs. I don’t know the average comes down enough to take with it the RBI/R but of course as we know, those are more lineup spot dependent than anything. If he hits 5th, sac flies get you RBIs but you don’t get much runs. Maybe I’m crazy but I see Votto/Frazier/Bruce/Mesoraco/BP as the 2-6 there. Of course, that would mean Cincy realizing Votto wants to be Robin and not Batman and that BP shouldn’t be anywhere near a productive spot in any lineup at that stage in his career but…sigh, yeah, we aren’t coaches.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yup, agree with all of this, but the average comes down and maybe that pushes him down the lineup… Either way, I do like him, just can’t say I like him at 31…

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
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                    I guess it really hinges on how low you think the average dips. Given Meso/BP/Bruce’s expected averages, I think he’s right at home. But in either case, it’s sunny outside in December in Eugene, OR so Ima go play. BYE BYE!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Haha… Fair enough….

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Sky: I need any injury tracker that tells me if its a fluke injury or a recurring/ normalish one like a hammy or knee. Bryce Harpers slides aside, it would be a much better way to track these guys. Last year Avisail had a really fluky injury and I’ve heard someone refer to him as injury prone now. I think we will see Cruz get over drafted but not be a bust. Of course the pessimist in me says he played and got his big contract and now will take 2015 off because Seattle can’t have anything nice…on an outdoor baseball diamond

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            If Nelson Cruz is getting drafted in the 3rd round, that is a bust to me when there are other players with higher upside going around him.

            • J-FOH says:
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              @Sky: I’m saying bust like 15 HR’s and a .235 with 80 games played. Yeah 3rd round is redonk. 5thish depending on whats available. I would be comfortable with the risk in the 6th.

              • Sky

                Sky says:
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                But that’s a bust anywhere you draft that…6th-8th makes sense. Probably where JD Martinez goes in a real draft which is OF3 range.

                • J-FOH says:
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                  @Sky: are you saying he and JD will be similar?

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
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                    I think JD will be better by a large margin. But I think they’ll be viewed the same.

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      @Sky: damn, you like the hell out of JD, you aren’t going to have a two letter thingy in front of Sky next year. Like OG SKY, the OG is short for Oregon

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Like the changed approach. Think he can hit for power with a high average. Good things to do when hitting behind Miggy/V-Mart. Hard not to like that, especially if Yoenis is hitting behind him.

                      I’ll go with TH for Tree Hugger.

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      @Sky: can you do it Sky TH

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      I’d reverse the T and H at that point and just be Sky Hot Takes

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      @Sky: or Sky Hot Tottie

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Sky Hairy Thing

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
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          @Sky: Three more random Cruz facts:

          – His 40 HRs in ’14 represented his career high and the first time since ’09 that he launched 30+

          – His 8.1% BB% was his highest mark since ’10 while his 20.6% K% was his lowest since ’10

          – His 41.0% FB% was his 2nd lowest percentage since ’08 and his 20.4% HR/FB was his 2nd highest mark since ’09

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            He’s gonna Adrian Beltre the Mariners. When will they learn?

            • Big Magoo

              Big Magoo says:
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              @Sky: At least Beltre was an elite defender at a premium position while he was there. It’s all just a fancy way of saying that I agree with both you and Grey that he’s a .260, 25 homer hitter next year.

              • Sky

                Sky says:
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                Yup, yup. But you don’t make that money for your defense. It’s for the 48 HRs you hit with half your games being at Dodgers stadium. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a great player overall but the Mariners and their history of overpaying for career years is just nutso high. You’d think they’d learn.

                • Big Magoo

                  Big Magoo says:
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                  @Sky: Yeah, I’m not saying that Beltre’s Mariner career was a success by any stretch of the imagination, just that he can provide value in other ways if he’s slumping at the plate. If Cruz isn’t hitting for power, he’s basically worthless. I think that the Mariners have to overpay FAs to get them to sign there, no? Especially position players who know that their offensive numbers are going to take a hit if they play half of their games out there…

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
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                    No argument RE: Beltre. Was just saying that’s not why we paid him.

                    That is a part of it, RE: FAs but they also don’t bargain hunt well. Unless they’re stuck on a player – Justin Upton every year is supposedly their target – it’s whatever player just came off a big year that they want. I didn’t hear one word on Jay Bruce as a potential buy low. Instead, we wanted Yoenis Cespedes. It’s all just mind-boggling.

            • J-FOH says:
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              @Sky: I always want to say, Griffey and A-Rod aren’t coming back

              • Sky

                Sky says:
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                Neither is Edgar Martinez nor Randy Johnson. So of course our big in-season moves are to gain lead off hitters that don’t steal and Chris Denorfia who doesn’t do anything.

                • J-FOH says:
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                  @Sky: damn, I forgot about Edgar, he was awesome to watch hit. One of my favorites

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
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                    Totally. One of the prettiest swings there ever was.

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      @Sky: I did not just adjust myself thinking about that swing. To me, one of the best professional hitter ever

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Back when it was fun being a Mariners fan. Miss those days!

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      @Sky: I like when they wear the throwbacks

  19. Jon says:
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    I’m in a keeper league with 12 keeper spots for hitters and I have 13 guys I’d love to hang onto. (10-team league and my team is in great shape.) Which one of these guys gets thrown back into the draft?

    1B Goldy
    1B/3B Frazier
    2B Walker
    2B/OF Alcantara
    3B Donaldson
    3B Arenado
    SS Tulowitzki
    SS Desmond
    OF Stanton
    OF Jones
    OF Heyward
    OF Polanco
    OF Betts

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Jon: walker

      • Jon says:
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        @J-FOH: thanks, man.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Betts

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: really 15/.250 Walker over upside Betts?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Betts doesn’t have a job

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: oh shitzky! thats right. Thats really dumb. He’s going to be a great add when someone there gets hurt. I got Hanley in the DL Sox pool.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, someone will get hurt, but that just makes Betts a great addition in-season

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Grey: I wonder if they have sat there going, why did we sign Hanley?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I know I did…

  20. Jon says:
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    Same question as above for pitchers, but I have 6 spots and 10 guys I’m considering.

    SP Harvey
    SP Zimmermann
    SP Cobb
    SP Bailey
    SP Cashner
    SP Stroman
    SP Keuchel
    RP Jansen
    RP Doolittle
    RP Allen

    Thanks for the help!

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Jon: Jansen, Doolittle, Allen, Bailey can be thrown back

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Not Keuchel, Bailey, Stroman, Allen

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: what about SAGNOF? I have a hard time with Dallas, He’s got 4 pitches and his xfip was solid. I like the big leap Houston as a whole took with their SP’s and I feel inclined to like him more than I should

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          He throws 89 MPH with a 6+ K/9… Meh, it’s okay…

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: I’m OK with velocity, the K’s rate is what I question. He had a lot of good K games then go out and drop a 3 the next time out. In RCL he’s still a streamer for me, but for a casual player league he’s ownable with short leash.

            With Houston improving the pen coupled with the good 2nd half of Fields and Sipp, I would like to hope their starters get a few more W’s. Not saying that is a reason to draft anyone, Just good to know.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, Astros won’t be bad and neither will Keuchel, but he’s not glamorous either…

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Grey: he’s jeans and t-shirt

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yup, workman’s special

  21. JT says:
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    Who will be better in the long run Arenado or Kris Bryant?

    Your sleeper post in 2014 on Arenado.
    “At some point, Arenado will hit 35 homers with a .300+ average and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened in 2015. Dag Hammarskjold! For 2014, I still see him being well worth a flyer with a chance to reach a top 5-7 ranking for all 3rd basemen. I’ll give him the projections of 74/21/82/.282/3.”

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Arenado

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