Today is the last day of baseball before the three most dreaded words of the summer are uttered: All-Star break. It’s not all bad though, we get a tiny break from setting our season long lineups at least. Still, there will be no moneies to be made for the next few days. So, let’s be sure to enjoy our well-deserved rest, but push for one last score so we can soak it up while we rest.
We have eleven games on the FanDuel Main Slate today, let’s dive right in:
*Editor’s Note: I’m posting this for Nich today due to a scheduling conflict, so even though my name is up top, it’s his work*
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P – There are 20 starters, two long relievers, and two openers pitching today. Of those, all but maybe a handful have a roughly average chance to return the best value of the stack. Projecting these differences is a mess. In situations like this, especially, what we want to do is diversify our lineups. We do not want to crunch our numbers, see James Paxton is the pitcher in our highest projected lineup, then trot him out in every lineup we enter. He has about a 6% chance of providing the greatest value today. So, only about 6% of the time would your 100% of lineups have the pitcher returning the greatest value. That’s not good.
Instead, here is the list of pitchers in the order they are likely to reach value, based on their salaries:
Zack Wheeler > Trent Thornton > Jose Urquidy > Trevor Bauer > James Paxton > Charlie Morton > Patrick Corbin > Jakob Junis > Kyle Hendricks > Dallas Keuchel > Tyler Mahle > Aaron Nola > David Price > Ivan Nova > Joe Musgrove > Trevor Richards > Jose Suarez > Asher Wojciechowski > Chase Anderson > Devin Smeltzer > Joe Palumbo > Gregory Soto > Jose Leclerc > Kyle Gibson (Gibson has no chance of returning value unless his role changes on short rest, which is highly unlikely, so do not roster him)
Chicago Cubs – The Cubs face a mediocre-at-best Ivan Nova for the second time in a month. On June 18th (albeit with temperatures in the 60’s and the wind blowing in) they managed to score just one run. Today we have a much better hitting environment, and we do not expect Nova to shut down the Cubs again. Though the implied run total is 2nd to the Red Sox, this is what I see as the highest potential stack of the slate. Order of preference: Kyle Schwarber, OF: $3,900, Robel Garcia, 3B: $2,000, Anthony Rizzo, C/1B: $4,300, Javier Baez, SS: $4,100, Kris Bryant, 3B: $4,200, David Bote, 3B: $2,700, Addison Russell, 2B: $2,200
Boston Red Sox – With the highest implied run total of the slate, the Red Sox will likely be highly owned, so we should focus on this stack in cash lineups and look to fill out GPP lineups with players who are not as likely to be highly owned. Order of preference: Mookie Betts, OF: $4,200, J.D. Martinez, OF: $4,000, Xander Bogaerts, SS: $4,200, Christian Vazquez, C/1B: $2,800, Brock Holt, 2B: $2,400, Andrew Benintendi, OF: $3,300, Michael Chavis, C/1B: $3,700, Rafael Devers, 3B: $4,400
Cleveland Indians – The Indians are in Cincinnati again today, where Lindor, we assume, will hit at least another two home runs. The salaries combined with the hitting conditions and park factor make this a must-play stack today, even though their implied run total is right about average at ninth best of the slate. The opportunity is there to provide exceptional value. Order of preference: Francisco Lindor, SS: $4,200, Jake Bauers, C/1B: $2,600, Jason Kipnis, 2B: $3,000, Carlos Santana, C/1B: $4,200, Tyler Naquin, OF: $2,800, Jose Ramirez, 3B: $3,600
Los Angeles Angels – This is a stack we should look at based on the potential to explode against an inexperienced player who may be overmatched against a disciplined lineup. Order of preference: Justin Bour, C/1B: $2,300, Shohei Ohtani, OF: $3,800, Mike Trout, OF: $4,800, Jarrett Parker, OF: $2,000, Kole Calhoun, OF: $3,200, Andrelton Simmons, SS: $2,800
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
We have rain in the picture in Pittsburgh and Washington, but neither one should be much of a PPD threat. The big threat in both places is a delay knocking out your SP, or shortening the game and limiting your hitter AB’s.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Red Sox have the highest implied run total, but I like the conditions in Cincinnati today, and want the over, currently at 9 even.