It was Father’s Day, and Grey held close to his heart a framed picture of Eric Karabell. He’s not my real father, Grey thought, Just the father of fantasy baseball. A tear dropped from his eye, landing on his T-shirt emblazoned with Gritty, the beloved mascot of the Philadelphia Flyers. His phone rang, and Grey placed the picture frame back on the headboard of his bed, where it stood as a beacon of inspiration and hope. Reaching into the pocket of his Bermuda shorts, Grey pulled out his cell phone and flipped it open. “Fantasy Master Lothario Grey Albright speaking.”
“It’s Wander season,” the voice on the other end said, before clicking an end to the call. Grey dropped the phone from his hand, his jaw slack. He ran to his personal calendar — a Huey Lewis and the News calendar — and flipped to July. In bold letters it said, “WANDER SZN” and had arrows pointing everywhere, as if depicting wind directions for a hurricane. “This can’t be,” he muttered to himself, flipping back to June, where the album cover to Sports greeted him. “It’s Schwarbs SZN right now!” he said, eliminating the vowels. He fetched his phone from the floor, flipping it back open. The 3G indicated it was disabled, likely broken in the fall. “My lineups!” he shouted, more tears falling upon Gritty’s ecstatic visage. Would Grey get Wander on any teams? Would Eric Karabell ever recognize Grey? Stay tuned for the next installment!
Bizness
OK friends, I won’t lie: I spent a fair amount of time this weekend digging through the tools that Rudy has to offer here at Razzball, understanding them at a deeper level than I did before. I know, I’m a giant nerd. “Hey Blair, what’d you do on this federal holiday weekend that coincides with Father’s Day?” I read fantasy baseball theory. Wild, eh? I was really happy to see how much the Teamonator had to offer, and I immediately made my biggest DFS day once I dug into the tools enough. So, if you’re not already a subscriber and you’re still suffering through all those ads, you can pay like 30 cents a day for the rest of the MLB season to get some of the top tools in fantasy baseball by going to the Fantasy Baseball Tools and subscribing at the Roto Deluxe w/ Ad Free level.
Also, it’s football draft season — at least for us degenerates who start drafting 3 months before the season begins — and Razzball Football is underway. Check us out over there, and you’ve got the same high-quality tools as well as rankings from Rudy, Donkey Teeth, myself, and newcomer Joey Wright. If you like my baseball takes, it’s probably worth saying that I’m actually better at fantasy football, having taken an industry league championship and two Razzball staff league championships. So, come on over and hang with us! We’ve got the same philosophy over there– the most amount of free rankings and content of any site, and the best dollar value tools on the planet.
On to the pitchers!
News and Notes
- It’s kind of like that parable of helicopter parents trying to protect their kids for years and then the one time the parents let their child run free, the kid gets eaten by a hawk. Is that a parable or am I just plotting out my next Netflix horror show? ENYWHEY. After years of the Rays trying to protect their starters at all costs, they let Glasnow run free and it just happened to coincide with MLB’s crackdown on grip enhancers. Glasnow went cold turkey from grip enhancers and wrecked his elbow in a matter of two starts, ending up with a partially torn UCL. Glasnow believes that the switch from sunscreen and rosin to nothing was a major role in his injury. Glasnow will try to rehab his injury, and there are notable examples of pitchers recovering quickly and successfully, including Adam Wainwright, Masahiro Tanaka, and Ervin Santana. However, Shohei Ohtani tried to rehab a partially torn UCL and ended up getting Tommy John; he missed pitching for nearly two years. Wei-Yin Chen found success with the Baltimore Orioles in the early 2010s (> 2.0 WAR per year) before pitching through a partially torn UCL when he signed with the Marlins; he pitched sporadically over the next three years and garnered only 1.2 WAR total before leaving MLB. And although Dinelson Lamet’s elbow was strained instead of tore, he already had one Tommy John surgery performed and has been trying to avoid a second stint under the knife. Lamet’s current stat line looks more like a reliever than the once-promising SP prospect that he was. Additionally, Zac Gallen had a partial tear of his UCL at the beginning of 2021 and just returned…and gave up 4 runs and was pulled after 2.2 innings. So, use all of that information to decide what you want to do with Glasnow. However, the most likely outcome is that Glasnow will be ineffective for the rest of 2021, and you should move on from him.
Must-listen: Tyler Glasnow's rant on MLB's crackdown on foreign substances.
"I 100% believe that contributed to me getting hurt."
He's used the sunscreen/rosin mix, then went "cold turkey" last week against the Nats. 11Ks. But woke up sore. "I felt completely different." (1/2) pic.twitter.com/BU2qCxmrtu
— Grace Remington (@GraceRemiTV) June 15, 2021
- Returns from his partially torn UCL and the world cheers. I’ve noticed a trend among fantasy baseballers who use the social medias frequently, especially Twitter. They see one of the GIF accounts tweet about a pitcher, and assume that the pitcher is rocking out and destroying the opposition. You can see below the Ninja Pitcher or whatever he calls himself gave us a wonderful Zac Gallen GIF. And if you’re pronouncing it “Jiff,” I want you out of here right now. ENYWHEY. Zac Gallen was tagged with an 11% barrel rate and struggled mightily to miss bats in his first return from a sprained UCL. I don’t know what Arizona’s playing for. Why are they rushing their prized ace back? He broke his radius this spring, followed by elbow trouble…I mean, let’s chill out. Even if Gallen recovers some sort of form before the all-star break, the Diamondbacks are on pace to win like 50 games, so, there’s no value for Gallen unless he’s K’ing 10 per nine in short fashion.
Zac Gallen, 97mph Fastball (home plate view). pic.twitter.com/ObDZRroMMO
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 17, 2021
- [copy everything I wrote about injuries above and paste here] The GOAT has a sore shoulder and the Mets trainers aren’t going to make him take a break. He’s already been on the IL once this year for an oblique, then he left his previous previous start with flexor tendonitis, and his previous start with shoulder soreness. DeGrom is the face of the franchise and the Mets are trying to send him to a seat right next to Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard. But Steve Cohen, ya know, he didn’t become a billionaire by protecting his employees! DeGrom is having a historical season but every analyst is worried about his health. Me too. Be well, deGrom.
Dinelson Lamet:
- You see how each player is leading into the next? It’s like I’m scripting this! Wait, I didn’t mention Lamet in the last paragraph? Maybe I’m just foreshadowing…ENYWHEY. Lamet struck out 7 Reds over 5 IP on Sunday while allowing no runs. Is he back? His 4.50 ERA over his previous 4 starts and 9+ H/9 suggest “maybe.” Lamet has great talent, but he’s pitching with an injured elbow and clearly has an IP cap. Maybe that’s useful in points leagues, but in basically every other format, that’s just not that useful. Fingers crossed he’ll maintain his health.
- 7K over 6IP, 2 ER on Sunday, and that was against the Padres. I won’t lie: I had Castillo lined up for 50% exposure in my DFS lineups on Sunday, and I accidentally screwed up the lock time. No lineups went out. Hasn’t allowed a homer in 4 starts, ERA around 2.00, and FIP around 3.00. So…he’s back? Fingers crossed?
German Marquez / Austin Gomber:
- All right, who had “2 Rockies Pitchers will be in the Top 30 WAR by 4th of July” on their bingo board? Because if you fit that statement on a bingo board, you must be playing with giants or something. So…ya know how it’s basically common sense to not start your pitchers in Coors Field. Yeah, I agree. But, the sentiment that many people have had in 2021 is that they just wouldn’t roster any Rockies pitchers. The result is that people have been missing out on Marquez and Gomber, who’ve put together surprisingly effective real-life pitching campaigns. “But EWB!” you say, lifting your head from a bag of Cheetos, “As Bohemian Rhapsody taught me, real-life isn’t fantasy!” Yeah, OK, and a 4.60 ERA isn’t a 3.54 FIP. That’s Marquez, bee-tee-dubya. If you’re looking for cheap dart-throws to start 50% of the time, Marquez and Gomber are likely out on your waiver wire, and they each have FIPs under 2.50 for the month of June. Problem is, Coors Field. So, live life on the edge once in a while.
- So, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: Wade Miley is SP33 on the year right now, and he hasn’t fallen apart yet. Miley’s not K’ing many batters, which is why we all are suspect about his long-term viability as your SP3, but his true skills are pointing in the direction of…being your SP3. He’s got a 4.01 SIERA to go with a sub-4.00 FIP and xFIP. What gives? He’s been a worm killer so far this year, with a ridiculous 2.31 groundball to flyball ratio, good for 6th in the league among MLBers with 40+ IP. The catch? He also has the lowest BABIP of the top worm killers. Send that Christmas card to Eugenio Suarez! So, what do we do about Miley? Well, we can always remember that Zack Greinke had top 20 finishes in 3 out of the last 4 years, so there’s room for those pitch-to-contact maestros like Miley. However, we see the signs of regression coming, and the 34-year old Miley has a lot of baggage from his years as a mediocre if not outright poor fantasy starter. That said, when the Reds are playing weak-hitting teams, absolutely target Miley — who is available almost everywhere — and be brave enough to put him in some DFS lineups.
Spencer Turnbull / Matthew Boyd:
- Turnbull and Boyd were cruising through the year and then they each went down with arm injuries in early June. Reports this week say that they won’t be back before the all-star break. I knew Boyd was too good to be true!
- I mentioned this in the preseason, but the Tigers had obviously been using “innings eaters” like Jose Urena, Matt Boyd, and Julio Teheran to lessen the strain on their future aces — Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning. Now, with injuries aplenty and Boyd/Turnbull on the shelf, Manning made his debut to mostly yawns and changed channels. Manning is a top 20 MLB prospect with 10+ K/9 ability and great control. In AAA this year, he’s struggled to manage the dongs — don’t we all? — but he comes into the majors on a team that’s largely “fixed” Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Matthew Boyd, and Spencer Turnbull. Like most rookies, Manning will be volatile for most of the year — and there’s not a lot of incentive for the Tigers to keep him in MLB to up his service time. The Tigers are a team of the future. So, if you’re in a keeper league and your team is in the gutter, there’s no harm in grabbing Manning off the wire and stashing him. Dynasty managers probably acquire Manning long ago. Redraft managers can stream Manning, but those managers should only maintain Manning on a roster if the pitching rotation needs major help.
- The guy hasn’t pitched in a month and he’s still around the top 50 SP. Nuts, right? The Atlanta Braves announced that they expect him to be back in August, and so far nobody in the back of the starting rotation has claimed his spot. Fingers crossed!
- The Yankees’ backup ace strained his groin in a rehab start coming back from Tommy John surgery, but it looks like he’ll be back in late July/early August. Got a deep IL? Might be time to stash Severino for super cheap.
- Up to 45 pitches in rehab, and is throwing his slider just fine. Expectations are that he’s on track for a return in late July.
Chris Sale throwing a bullpen in Worcester @tgsports pic.twitter.com/mhexp44WdV
— Ashley Green (@agreenphotog) June 18, 2021
Mike Minor:
- Minor has quietly put up a top 60 SP season so far, with a solid K-BB% of 19 and SIERA of 3.84. He’s allowing a bit too many fly balls, which has led to a nasty 1.50 HR/9 rate and a 4.63 ERA. Neither of those look promising, but his true skill stats are showing that he’ll continue to be relevant in 12-team leagues throughout the near future, and he’s available in about half the leagues out there, so go grab him.
Space:X Rankings
Last week, I checked in on the hits and misses from the ranking system so far. And, so far, so good. We’ve hit on the important pitchers and missed on some less important pitchers, which is more or less where we want to be. The problem we’re running into — from a rankings standpoint — is that the top pitchers are all stabilizing. Here’s the thing: starters throw like 80-100 pitches per start, and once we get an idea of their K/9 and see that it’s stabilizing, then it often stays there unless we get injuries. So, there wasn’t a ton of movement on a week-to-week basis. Notice how Huascar Ynoa hasn’t pitched in a month and is still in the top 60? Danny Duffy too, and he’s been out even longer than Ynoa. This means that many of the pitchers below SP 60 aren’t returning great value. Of course, this is where we come into the idea of Wins over Replacement (WAR) — Ynoa and Duffy were so good when they played that their replacements haven’t come close to catching up to them. So, from my perspective as a ranker, making a giant list is becoming less and less valuable as the season goes on because we’re not discovering anything from the list anymore. I mean, it’s pretty easy for me to just post the same thing every week and call it a day, but I don’t feel like doing that. So, this week, I’m going to point out some pitchers who are due for regression, and next week we’ll probably do another big list that includes the recency bias alongside the season-long statistics. This way, we’re continually discovering value, which will help you in your fantasy endeavors better than just making a giant list.
“Positive” Regression Candidates:
- Eduardo Rodriguez: Currently SP135 due to his 6.21 ERA. His SIERA is 3.58, his xERA is 3.52, his FIP is 3.64, and his xFIP is 3.38. The problem? His BABIP is .380. His HR allowed are about league average, his hard hit % is below league average, and strikeout to walk ratio is in the top 40 in the league, just below Tyler Glasnow and ahead of Chris Bassitt, Pablo Lopez, and Jose Berrios.
- Alex Cobb: We’ve mentioned him all year; currently in the 70s on the Player Rater and coming off an 8K, 0 ER outing. K-BB% is 21%, and his FIPs are below 2.50. SIERA is 3.08. Angels are in the middle of changing pitching coaches, and we’re likely to see improved performance from many of their starters.
- Andrew Heaney: Right next to Cobb on the Player Rater, although he’s available in fewer leagues. He’s posted a 20:4 K/BB ratio over his last three starts with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.62 FIP. Looks like he’s here to save your season!
“Negative” Regression Candidates:
- Framber Valdez: Valdez has less data due to missing the first part of the data, but his resurgent June isn’t likely representative of his true skill set. His K-B% is the same as Dylan Bundy, and he’s been treated to a .230 BABIP so far. Bats are warming up and his ridiculous 71% ground ball rate won’t be sustainable.
- John Means: Means was one of the top pitchers early in the year and has the #1 pitching performance of 2021 according to Rudy’s ranker. Right now, he’s on the IL with a shoulder strain and the Orioles indicate he won’t be back until after the All-Star break. Even when he comes back, he’ll likely be worse than his first half; his K-BB% just wasn’t elite (about the same as Eduardo Rodriguez!), and his FIPs were both above 4.0. If you have the means to trade Means, now might be the time.
- Kyle Gibson: SP30 right now, which is largely due to his high IP with only 2.00 ERA. What now? His xFIP is 4.03, and his K/9 is 7.07, which is 200th best among pitchers. Blech.
OK, 3,000 words later, I think we’ve got enough good stuff for y’all to take action on. Drop me a note in the comments to say “hey” or ask me what my favorite ______ is. Hope you all had a stunning weekend and I’ll see you soon!
