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Ladies and gentlemen, The Weekend! [insert GIF of James Bond introducing The Weeknd with a half-hearted shrug] We’ve been working double time around here to manage the holiday rush…Wait, aren’t we supposed to be getting paid double time instead of working double time? I’ll have to check with my union rep. Donkey Teeth, where you at? ENYWHEY. After 87 consecutive hours of number crunching, I’ve come to the conclusion that you should pick up Alek Manoah. Let’s get everybody caught up on the pitcher news after the Greinke graphic!

Top 100 Starting Pitchers Header

News and Notes

Alek Manoah

  • ARE YOU READY TO RANDY!? Remember how Randy Arozarena had like, 70 at-bats last year and then destroyed the playoffs and you drafted him in the 3rd round this year and he’s been pretty OK? Well, let’s get off the boat on Manoah. Tickets for two, please! Manoah’s got all of [does math] 50 IP in professional ball, so we’re small sample-sizing to the moon. Grey loves Manoah. Eno Sarris loves Manoah. That guy on Twitter with the handle “ManoahMoonShot69” loves…you guessed it…weed stocks. And Manoah. So, with small sample size, we’re in “lottery ticket” territory, which is cheap and fun and if you miss, whatever. 31+% CSW in his start, 3.50 SIERA, too. You had no problem following me to Huascar Ynoa land on his small sample size and were rewarded with a month of glory before he decided to fight the dugout bench, so get Randy with Manoah and pick him up while he plays.

Aaron Civale:

  • When it’s late at night, I sometimes browse through the Player Rater and think about what could have been. [insert meme of Wolverine looking longingly at picture of Adolis Garcia] Actually, my system’s been pretty fair at picking the top pitchers so far. [brushes dirt off shoulder] One guy that’s standing out like a sore thumb is Aaron Civale, who sits at SP19 at the time of writing, right in-between Lance Lynn and Freddy Peralta. So, what’s up with Civale? He’s got the second-lowest K value, behind only Lance Lynn; we know Lynn’s K value is tied to his IP, and Lynn missed some time on the LaRussa list earlier this year. Civale, meanwhile, is cruising with a 7.01 K/9 and an xFIP and SIERA over a point higher than his ERA. Oh, and he’s 7-1 on the season. Cleveland has 27 wins on the season, making Civale the owner of 25% of the Cleveland wins. Something, something, unsustainable. The reason Civale’s been so valuable on the season for fantasy teams is his disproportionate amount of wins. From a true skill standpoint, Civale is actually markedly worse than last year, when he finished as SP95 despite racking up a ton of innings. So, if you’re riding the Civale train, the smart money says to take your profits now and move on before the regression faeries come for their share of Civale’s ERA.

Danny Duffy: 

  • The early season darling — who was making great strides in reinventing his career with some new pitch mechanics — is paying the price for those adjustments. He hasn’t thrown in the last ten days and doesn’t have a time table to return other than “we’re bringing him along slowly.” Duffy’s a free agent at the end of the year, who likely needs to crank up some innings to get a legitimate chance at landing a useful contract; his previous years wound up with a 4.68 ERA and a 5.01 FIP, meaning baseball minds both old and new aren’t that interested in him (stares at Matt Shoemaker). Or maybe that’s the stuff front offices love to keep players like Alek Manoah down in the minors. Either way, be flexible with Duffy, but don’t expect him to come surging down the pipe for Memorial Day weekend.

Corey Kluber: 

  • The price of a no-hitter? 6+ weeks on the shelf. So, if you’re an avid reader of my work, you’ll remember back into the wee mornings of this year when I wrote my Corey Kluber Fantasy Outlook, I forecasted Kluber to have a less-than-stellar year due to injuries. Kluber had missed nearly two years with injuries and is 35, and the list of pitchers who’ve “resumed” a successful career after that kind of situation included just Bartolo Colon and Rich Hill. So the Yankees took a pitcher who they knew had arm troubles, had been shut down in spring training, and then let him go for that no-hitter. Now Kluber’s on the shelf until July with a strain in the muscle that supports the teres major, which is the muscle he tore last year. I know I’m just a keyboard jockey, but if I’m paying a guy $11 million to play for me and I know he’s going to be prone to injury and I’ve got a stellar bullpen, I let the bullpen take over the no-hitter situation. ENYWHEY. IL stash or let Kluber go. Also, I wrote this in my Saturday Injured List column, so I’m copying myself!

Noah Syndergaard: 

  • Yeah, we’re at the injury part of the list. I told you to grab Thor last week, but in his last rehab start, his right elbow — the one that’s recovering from Tommy John — flared up. Thor’s shut down ’til July like most of the Mets. Thor has no reason to rush back; a second Tommy John surgery at this point in his career is basically the end, so he should take as much as time as possible to return.

Miles Mikolas

  • Yeah part deux, nobody’s healthy anymore. Just wait until we come to the 2022 projection season and half the pitchers are recovering from Tommy John surgery! Mikolas made one start and then is back with forearm tightness. This is why you get those early contracts, right? The Cardinals are shopping around to see which doctor will give them the cheapest platelet-rich plasma injection. Mikolas is a drop in all formats.

Rich Hill

  • Fooled ya! You thought I was gonna keep writing about injuries, didn’t ya? Dick Mountain is healthy…so far…and he’s about to throw his most IP in a season since 2018. Over his last 6 starts, he’s got a 44:12 K:BB ratio, and he’s got a minuscule 1.26 ERA. Yeah, xFIP over that time is 3.58 and SIERA is 3.25, which indicates some regression is coming, but even so, that’s still top 30 pitcher territory. Problem is, 41-year-olds generally don’t throw enough innings to be truly relevant in fantasy. If Hill pulls off the improbable, you’ve got yourself a discount ace. Just know that rostering the oft-injured and older-than-me Dick Mountain comes with more risk than that board game, Operation.

Shohei Ohtani

  • Yeah part troi, he wasn’t delayed on public transport. This is a completely normal velocity drop and pitch mix change in the image below, right? He’s basically abandoned his breaking pitches. The Angels finally trashed Callaway and they probably need a new coach to come check on Ohtani’s buff yet fragile arm. Fingers crossed Ohtani just needs a breather. Or maybe he just doing that Robbie Ray thing where he just throws fastballs. [starts dreaming of Ohtani in Robbie Ray’s pants]

German Marquez

  • A lot of you — I mean us — I mean the royal “We” — gave up on Marquez when he kind of lost his control early in the year and then got blown up for 8 runs in one inning. After that catastrophe, he’s thrown 25 IP with a 10+ K/9, 3.6 BB/9, and a 2.16 ERA to go with a 3.64 FIP and 3.82 SIERA. So, yeah, he’s kind of back. What if we do one of those Player A / Player B comparisons over the last month?
    Name IP K/9 BB/9 ERA SIERA
    Player A 23.2 12.55 4.56 3.42 3.57
    Player B 25 10.08 3.60 2.16 3.82

    Typical hem-haw situation, right? Player A is good at some things, Player B is good at others, but overall, just about the same, right? Except Player A is Shane Bieber and Player B is German Marquez. One of those guys was drafted in the first round and the other is probably on the waiver wire right now. Oh! Wait for it…one of those players is marquee, and the other is Marquez. Hah!

Stephen Strasburg: 

  • Yeah part quatro, he’s back and maybe you care. He’s got a 7.8 K/9 and a 4.5+ BB/9 in the two games since he returned from injury after he [checks notes] returned from injury. His SIERA in those two games is near 4.70. Sure you can roster him and hope he heals a bit more and makes a second-half comeback, but his numbers look more like Ryan Weathers than the top 30 SP that people were drafting him as. Stras remains blahs until we have evidence otherwise.

Zach Wheeler: 

  • He’s been cruising over his last 3 games with a 15+ K/9 to a BB/9 less than 2. Actually the BB/9 is like 1.2, which is redonk. Maybe Wheeler’s just getting ready for carnival season. I’m so happy we’re reinvigorating the American summer tradition of carnies! But Wheeler, tho…He’s getting a ton of called strikes, which is good but not stunning, and racking up the innings. When push comes to shove, a pitcher with 180 innings of 8 K/9 has about the same strikeouts as a pitcher who goes 120 innings of 12 K/9. Yes this is a subtweet of Jacob deGrom and Corbin Burnes. Pitchers go through hot and cold streaks and we’re watching Wheeler in the middle of a hot phase. He’s a good pitcher and definitely valuable, but just know that he’s playing way above his fantasy pay grade in case anybody approaches you with a “sell high” trade offer. That said, feel free to just “slow and steady” that race to fantasy glory.

Austin Gomber

  • He’s available in 75% of Yahoo Leagues and has a 33K:3BB ratio over his last five starts with a 3.18 ERA. 75% of Yahoo managers must enjoy losing their leagues. Go get him.

Jose Berrios

  • Ebb and flow, that’s the way the pitchers go. I gave a warning a few weeks ago that Berrios’ velocity was down, but now it’s back up and he’s got a 20:3 K:BB ratio over his last 3 games with a 2.90 xFIP and a 4.00 ERA. Giving up some barrels but he’s back on track. Regression faeries are due for an ERA shining.

Shane McClanahan

  • Leads the league in swinging strikes over the past two weeks and is still available in 55% of Yahoo leagues. Go grab him and make yourself some Yahoo serious money.

Patrick Corbin

  • Last four games: 21:6 K:BB ratio, and FIP/xFIP below 3.00 with a 4.00 ERA. Pretty soon the regression fairy will drop by to bestow Corbin with his luck and you won’t be able to add him anywhere. He’s actually in the top 25% of swinging strike leaders over the last two weeks. Hot streak incoming!

Justin Dunn

  • Wow this guy is under the radar and figured something out. Past three games: 21:7 K:BB, 11.57 K/9, 2.20 ERA and 3.60 FIP. Top 30 in swinging strike rate over the past 2 weeks, even higher than Darvish and Bauer. xBA and SLG against his breaking pitches — which he throws 50% of the time — is under .200. His track record isn’t stunning — he was walking more batters than he K’d to start the season — but Dunn should be on teams right now. What, you’d rather start Antonio Senzatela?

Space:X Rankings

It’s Memorial Day for all the American readers of this blog, which means that most of you are already 12 White Claws deep whilst listening to Toby Keith. Me? I’m just out here playing with Excel tables. As always, I don’t rank hierarchically; I’m just describing the likelihood of players to land in a range on the Player Rater come the end of the season. Let me know if you have questions down in the comments, and I’ll see you all next week!

Rank Name IP K-BB% SIERA CSW%
S-Tier
1 Jacob deGrom 45 42.10% 1.57 35.30%
Corbin Burnes 46.1 39.70% 1.69 36.10%
Gerrit Cole 70.2 33.50% 2.24 33.70%
Carlos Rodon 48.2 32.10% 2.4 30.50%
Max Scherzer 63.1 30.10% 2.69 32.00%
Joe Musgrove 55.2 29.10% 2.56 33.50%
Tyler Glasnow 70 27.70% 2.83 33.70%
Shane Bieber 72 27.50% 2.86 34.60%
Freddy Peralta 54.2 26.40% 3.03 31.60%
Zack Wheeler 75 26.20% 2.87 29.50%
Trevor Bauer 69.2 25.70% 3.06 30.20%
Julio Urias 67.1 24.90% 3.09 33.90%
Brandon Woodruff 64 24.90% 3 31.30%
Clayton Kershaw 64.1 24.30% 3.08 32.60%
Kevin Gausman 64.2 24.20% 3.12 31.70%
Yu Darvish 66.2 24.00% 3.28 31.50%
Aaron Nola 65.1 23.30% 3.24 31.10%
Hyun-Jin Ryu 58.1 21.60% 3.27 29.30%
John Means 70.1 20.90% 3.66 29.50%
20 Walker Buehler 64.1 20.80% 3.5 29.90%
Chris Bassitt 70 20.50% 3.47 28.20%
Jose Berrios 56.1 20.10% 3.51 29.70%
Jack Flaherty 57 16.50% 3.99 28.70%
A-Tier
25 Shane McClanahan 27.1 23.10% 3.16 34.40%
Robbie Ray 52 22.00% 3.35 30.30%
Zach Eflin 63.1 21.70% 3.38 29.20%
Trevor Rogers 62.2 21.70% 3.4 31.40%
Jameson Taillon 42.2 21.20% 3.52 28.80%
Adbert Alzolay 49.2 21.10% 3.4 29.60%
Eduardo Rodriguez 48 20.90% 3.45 27.80%
Andrew Heaney 44.2 20.60% 3.59 29.20%
Alex Wood 48 20.50% 3.16 32.80%
Lance Lynn 52.2 19.80% 3.7 27.10%
Luis Garcia 40 19.80% 3.7 30.60%
Rich Hill 52 19.70% 3.62 33.40%
Charlie Morton 52 19.60% 3.48 30.90%
Lucas Giolito 55.2 19.50% 3.67 29.50%
Blake Snell 44 19.40% 3.79 30.60%
Steven Matz 54.2 19.20% 3.55 30.20%
Sean Manaea 60.2 18.80% 3.72 28.70%
Jordan Montgomery 53.1 18.60% 3.75 29.80%
Dylan Cease 51.1 18.30% 3.87 30.10%
JT Brubaker 55.1 18.10% 3.58 28.30%
Tyler Mahle 50.1 18.00% 3.8 29.60%
Sonny Gray 42.1 18.00% 3.77 31.60%
Logan Webb 48 17.60% 3.39 30.40%
Dylan Bundy 45.2 17.60% 3.83 32.00%
David Peterson 44 17.40% 3.68 29.90%
50 Nathan Eovaldi 60.2 17.30% 3.72 28.80%
Madison Bumgarner 57.2 17.10% 4.05 28.50%
Sandy Alcantara 65 17.00% 3.73 30.20%
Yusei Kikuchi 56 16.50% 3.78 31.40%
Pablo Lopez 63 16.10% 3.88 26.80%
Ian Anderson 55 16.00% 3.8 28.60%
Taijuan Walker 49 15.90% 4.06 29.50%
Lance McCullers Jr. 51.2 15.40% 4.03 31.50%
Adam Wainwright 59.2 15.10% 4.01 31.50%
Zack Greinke 65.2 14.70% 4.14 26.90%
Marcus Stroman 58.2 14.00% 3.86 26.50%
Aaron Civale 68 13.60% 4.21 25.30%
Anthony DeSclafani 60.2 13.60% 4.21 27.30%
Kyle Gibson 60.1 12.10% 4.22 29.30%
Luis Castillo 52.1 10.00% 4.51 26.60%
B-Tier
66 Alek Manoah 6 22.70% 3.46 31.80%
Alex Cobb 33.1 21.70% 3.02 29.40%
Danny Duffy 41.2 21.20% 3.56 29.40%
Michael Pineda 44.2 19.90% 3.65 30.60%
Cristian Javier 48.2 19.10% 3.84 27.40%
Joey Lucchesi 16.1 18.80% 3.72 29.60%
James Kaprielian 17.2 18.60% 4.25 27.10%
Domingo German 50 18.30% 3.76 29.60%
Cody Poteet 21.1 18.30% 3.95 27.50%
Luis Patino 10 18.20% 3.89 26.50%
Frankie Montas 58.2 17.60% 3.9 26.60%
Dane Dunning 47.1 17.10% 3.58 29.90%
Tyler Anderson 56.1 16.10% 4.04 27.80%
Tarik Skubal 37.1 16.10% 4.27 26.40%
Shohei Ohtani 36.1 15.60% 4.32 31.30%
Austin Gomber 57.1 15.40% 4.08 30.30%
Griffin Canning 37.2 15.20% 4.2 28.20%
Spencer Turnbull 46 15.00% 3.86 26.00%
Luke Weaver 40 15.00% 4.16 27.80%
Vince Velasquez 31.1 15.00% 4.17 26.90%
Merrill Kelly 57.2 14.70% 4.1 26.80%
Nick Pivetta 53.2 14.70% 4.26 27.20%
Trevor Williams 43.2 14.70% 4.1 27.70%
Kenta Maeda 42.2 14.70% 4.08 27.30%
Kyle Hendricks 56.1 14.50% 4.15 28.80%
Martin Perez 50.2 14.30% 4.15 28.20%
Chris Paddack 42.1 14.30% 4.2 28.70%
Jose Urquidy 44.2 13.60% 4.59 26.50%
Matthew Boyd 57.2 13.40% 4.37 28.70%
Jordan Lyles 56 13.40% 4.37 27.40%
Cole Irvin 57.1 12.80% 4.52 25.90%
Wade Miley 43.2 12.80% 3.7 24.80%
Max Fried 35 12.80% 4.37 27.80%
German Marquez 58.1 12.20% 4.34 28.50%
100 Casey Mize 57.2 11.50% 4.31 26.80%
Mike Foltynewicz 62.2 10.70% 4.75 24.60%
Adrian Houser 48.2 10.30% 4.26 22.30%
Jon Gray 60.2 9.70% 4.54 28.90%
Justin Dunn 45.1 9.40% 5.03 25.00%
Patrick Corbin 52 9.30% 4.63 27.10%
Garrett Richards 54 8.90% 4.75 25.30%
C-Tier
107 Michael Kopech 12 35.60% 2.11 31.60%
Huascar Ynoa 43.2 22.30% 3.25 32.10%
Jake Odorizzi 13.1 19.30% 3.89 24.50%
Jakob Junis 22.2 19.10% 3.65 28.30%
Eric Lauer 17 18.80% 3.47 27.30%
Logan Gilbert 10.2 18.40% 4.07 22.40%
Ross Stripling 25 17.80% 3.95 27.90%
Mike Minor 54 17.50% 3.88 28.30%
Tucker Davidson 6 17.40% 3.79 31.90%
Matt Peacock 10.1 16.70% 3.31 24.80%
Johnny Cueto 37.1 16.30% 4 25.30%
Zac Gallen 26.2 15.70% 4.13 29.00%
Jose Quintana 30.2 15.30% 4.24 27.40%
Michael Wacha 23.2 15.10% 4.27 26.70%
Kwang-hyun Kim 32 15.00% 4.11 28.10%
Miguel Yajure 9.1 14.70% 4.24 29.10%
Corey Kluber 53.1 14.50% 4.18 30.10%
Brady Singer 47.2 14.20% 4.07 30.60%
Jesus Luzardo 28 14.20% 4.28 29.40%
Ryan Yarbrough 39 13.60% 4.27 27.80%
Anthony Kay 15.1 13.00% 4.24 24.20%
Drew Smyly 42.1 12.60% 4.51 28.20%
Jorge Lopez 45 12.40% 4.32 28.10%
Dean Kremer 38 12.10% 4.71 25.10%
Mitch Keller 42.2 11.60% 4.63 24.80%
Aaron Sanchez 28.1 11.50% 4.18 25.80%
Taylor Widener 24 11.50% 4.69 27.10%
Matt Harvey 48.2 11.30% 4.55 24.50%
Trevor Cahill 35.2 11.30% 4.15 26.20%
Zach Plesac 58.2 11.10% 4.39 28.60%
Jake Arrieta 47.1 10.90% 4.65 27.70%
Joe Ross 43.1 10.90% 4.58 29.20%
Erick Fedde 39.1 10.80% 4.56 24.70%
Bruce Zimmermann 38 10.30% 4.72 26.40%
Triston McKenzie 32.2 10.30% 5.24 28.10%
Chris Flexen 47.2 9.90% 4.63 21.20%
Marco Gonzales 28.1 9.90% 4.84 25.10%
Randy Dobnak 12 9.80% 4.18 23.60%
J.A. Happ 46.1 9.70% 4.91 23.10%
Jon Lester 29.1 9.70% 4.83 26.40%
Ryan Weathers 22.1 9.10% 4.82 25.20%
Stephen Strasburg 20.1 9.10% 4.94 29.20%
Brad Keller 45.2 8.80% 4.59 24.50%
Josh Fleming 21.1 8.80% 4.17 28.00%
Wil Crowe 26.1 8.40% 4.92 24.20%
Bryse Wilson 24.2 7.70% 4.96 27.10%
Hyeon-jong Yang 12 7.70% 5.12 25.50%
Kris Bubic 17 7.60% 5.02 25.30%
Antonio Senzatela 50.2 7.10% 4.69 23.60%
Sam Hentges 11.1 7.10% 5.31 26.50%
Justus Sheffield 49 6.80% 4.96 25.30%
Patrick Sandoval 14 6.80% 4.69 28.10%
Logan Allen 15.2 6.70% 5 24.30%
Chi Chi Gonzalez 36.2 6.60% 5.11 25.00%
Chase Anderson 32.1 6.60% 5.23 26.60%
Jeff Hoffman 41 6.40% 5.28 26.50%
Carlos Martinez 53.1 6.30% 4.93 24.60%
Brett Anderson 32.1 6.30% 4.7 23.20%
Jose Urena 54.1 5.60% 4.85 23.50%
Matt Moore 11 5.10% 5.51 21.80%
Matt Shoemaker 46 4.90% 5.34 25.60%
Dallas Keuchel 59.2 4.80% 4.61 25.70%
Kohei Arihara 28.2 3.90% 5.52 24.30%
Daniel Castano 17.1 3.80% 5.48 22.10%
Seth Frankoff 13.2 2.90% 5.54 19.80%
John Gant 44.2 2.00% 5.63 26.40%
Riley Smith 22 1.00% 5.68 23.40%
Zach Davies 50.1 0.90% 5.79 24.00%
Lewis Thorpe 13 0.00% 5.73 26.10%
Johan Oviedo 15.1 -1.30% 6.31 25.60%
Nick Neidert 16 -2.60% 6.58 21.40%
180 Chad Kuhl 15.2 -2.60% 6.68 26.50%

Aye, you made it this far, didn’t ya. EverywhereBlair is, well, located at home right now. He’s a historian and lover of prog-metal. He enjoys a good sipping rum. When he’s not churning data and making fan fiction about Grey and Donkey Teeth, you can find him dreaming of shirtless pictures of Lance Lynn on Twitter @Everywhereblair.