I’m in this charity fantasy football tournament that names all the divisions after bands, and I was gifted my first choice for a division: The Cure. Actually, I wanted Periphery or Devin Townsend, but nobody knows about them, so they don’t get divisions. But now, I’m playing for the symbolic championship of the band that made the greatest album ever: Disintegration. Yes, I have heard BTS. Yes, their chicken nugget sauce is tasty. No, their albums are not great. Yes, I like Korean music and moisturizing face masks and bulgogi pizza. ENYWHEY. Grey’s never listened to Disintegration, and if you’ve got time today, stop by his post and give him hell for that. For all the rest of you, let’s get to the news and a bit of self-reflection on the rankings so far!

Top 100 Starting Pitchers Header

Max Scherzer

  • I first dabbled with voodoo magicks sometime in 7th grade, probably because I got bored in math class and began summoning anything that would listen. Little did I know that 20 years later, all those deals I made for clear skin and sub-20 minute mile times would come back to haunt me. First, I broke Jack Flaherty and Elieser Hernandez. This week, Max Scherzer made it a few pitches before his groin told him to hit the showers. 7th grade me felt the same way. Scherzer’s groin MRI came back “clean” — he must be hanging out with Gwyneth Paltrow or something — and he looks to miss minimal time. Also groin injuries suck for pitchers, what with them using their groins to develop torque. But Scherzer has a track record of healing with Predator blood better than the average heterochromatic, so fingers crossed he’s back hurling for your team soon. Late Update: He’s feel tingly in his groin and missing his next start. So, uh, time to pick up literally any pitcher that isn’t broken?

Jacob deGrom

  • The year is 2021, except it’s August instead of June, and every starter has been replaced with an opener. Willians Astudillo reinvented himself as a 2nd-inning specialist, and Aroldis Chapman leads the MLB in innings pitched. Jacob deGrom is stuck in the Mets trainer room — which is thankfully free of Mickey Callaway now — and looks at Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco. “What brings you here,” Carrasco asks to deGrom. DeGrom simply stares ahead at the TV in the trainer’s room, which plays a constant infomercial for Dr. Freeze on repeat. Seth Lugo walks by, ready to start his 6th game in a row. “See you soon,” Carrasco says to Lugo. ENYWHEY. DeGrom stepped out of his last start with flexor tendinitis and he seemed to not care whatsoever about it. Remember when he and the Mets trainers were insouciant about his oblique injury and then he hit the IL after leaving his next start early? It’s not like there’s a race to 200 IP this year. If somebody out there is in a position of power, tell the Mets to chill with deGrom before he joins Thor and Cookie.

Shane Bieber

  • Late insertion! Bieber got rocked by the worst offense in the league in his last start, and is going on the IL as of five minutes ago. I’m writing this Monday afternoon, in case you’re lost in the time tunnel. Reports say he won’t throw for two weeks. Sound like he needs a staycation to take a break and chill so he can keep the Clevelanders in the playoff hunt. Yeah, maybe that. Or get…traded? Hmmmmm. Either way, sorry your first-round draft picks are all injured, Pocket Ace drafters.

Robbie Ray

  • I got Grey to join me in appreciating Robbie Ray’s approach to pitching finally. That’s all. Also the Blue Jays bullpen is gonna keep Ray from getting anywhere near the top of the pitcher charts because they can’t save a game to save their souls.

Aaron Civale

  • Civale, so hot right now. 15:1 K:BB ratio over his last 2 starts…and 3 homeruns. Feels like a Robby Ray-style trend. Civale’s FIP is nearly 2 points higher than his ERA over the last week and about 1 point over his ERA over the past month. Really low BABIP (which is even worse than being low-T), and Rudy’s rankings are seeing him as negative value in all formats over the rest of the season. Civale won me some money in DFS this week, but all signs point to a worse 2nd half for Civale. The smart money is to trade him, and the risky money is buy $DOGE.

Ryan Yarbrough

  • 24:2 K:BB over his last four starts…and he’s getting hit around a bit too. But I get a ton of questions about Shane McClanahan and whether he’s going to get Quality Starts on that Rays team. Well, Yarbrough is no Shane McClanahan, but he’s got 4 quality starts out of his last 5 starts, he’s got better numbers than McClanahan, and he’s available in most leagues. How about this: RotoWear makes me a “Yarbs” trucker hat and I wear it every day for the rest of the summer?

Luis Castillo

  • 3.24 ERA over his last three starts. Control is still a mess. But, ya know, small steps? This is more important considering he was basically useless to start the season despite his high draft capital, and now he’s been promoted to “Don’t Buy.”

Zach Davies

  • The prize in the Yu Darvish trade has done something really weird this year: he’s walking nearly as many batters as he’s K’ing, but he’s also managing a sub-3.00 ERA over his past 5ish starts. Sounds like Javy Baez is getting a nice Christimas present from the Davies household this year! Davies is available in almost all formats and might be the kind of worm-killer you need if you’re behind in ERA or in a really deep league.

Dinelson Lamet

  • Almost a starter again? Maybe? He’s up to 5 IP, which is great if you’re Antonio Senzatela. Velocity is there, but his pitches still aren’t particularly effective: in his past three “starts,” he has a 5.25 ERA and FIP over 4. Blah. You might be receiving trade offers from managers who feel that he’s “recovered” value, but remember that he’s pitching on a rehabbed elbow and couldn’t throw half his pitches as recently as April. Also, he has only 2 pitches, just like my Hollywood career. I wouldn’t recommend buying Lamet unless you love danger and spend your weekends spelunking in the sewers.

Dylan Cease

  • 17:2 K:BB over his last two starts and a STERLING 1.50 ERA. HE’S BACK BABY. [runs off to the stat-o-nator] Oh, wait, those two starts were against Detroit. Eric Haase is a legit hitter, right? Just remember his previous 5 starts added up to a 5+ ERA, 4.30+ FIP, and lots of headaches for those teams chasing recency bias. Contrary to some analysts who have proclaimed Cease to be a Cy Young contender year after year, I think we’re simply looking at your typical SP3/SP4 for fantasy that you draft in best ball only: capable of dismantling bad teams, but “eating innings” against the good teams.

Kenta Maeda

  • He’s baaaaaaack. Which may be good or bad, I can’t tell. I would have included Maeda in my self-reflection below, but he’s been injured for most of the year. He told us he’s not a cold-weather pitcher so we kinda ignored his bad April. Then, he was still bad when the weather warmed up, but we learned he had a sore groin. What’s he doing, hanging out around Scherzer? Maeda’s starting on Monday, and I’ll be honest: I’m plugging him in my leagues right away. NO FEAR. At least that’s what my T-shirt from 7th grade says.

Trevor Rogers

  • Out for a bit, likely with Covid vaccine side effects. Also, he’s clearly getting a bit tired — he’s not built for these long hauls. Perhaps there’s some stay-cation strategy to his vaccine timing? Either way — get your vaxx if you haven’t because the Deltra strain of Covid-19 is coming for you faster than a deGrom fastball.

Space:X — Where are They Now?

In honor of Coolwhip inspecting his fantasy track record this week in his Deep League Review for 2021, I wanted to pause on putting the giant table in the article and instead see how we’re doing with this ranking system. Is it working? Is it cream or crap? Should I just abandon data and instead make hot taeks based on my random observations of Twitter highlights?

Now, I’m very aware that MLB started with the worst batch of hitting in history, which will artificially inflate some players’ value. Additionally, we’re at that 40% mark where strong starts and bad starts still don’t have enough counter-data to make conclusive statements. Additionally additionally, some of the known pine-tar hurlers are starting to mix more Tang into their sunscreen and we’re seeing massive spin rate declines in players like Trevor Bauer (last 4 starts: 4.32 ERA, 8.28 K/9, and 5.75 FIP) and Gerrit Cole (last 5 starts: 4.05 ERA and 1.55 HR/9). Told ya not to draft pitchers early! But as I pointed out in the pre-season, these kinds of pitchers are known for being so good when they’re on that they still finish in the top 10 even after extended periods of crapness. So, let’s focus on some of the lesser-known hits or misses of the Space:X system so far (checking against my rankings from my 2021 Preseason Pitcher Rankings and that diatribe I wrote, which is also called 2021 Preseason Pitcher Rankings):

Hits: 

  • Brandon WoodruffI was basically the only ranker on the planet to have Brandon Woodruff in their top tier. OK, I was tied with some other rankers, but given that most people drafted him as SP13, I’ll say that I was 3x as aggressive as the field. Right now, he’s 20th overall on the Player Rater, and is SP3 on the year. So, hey, that worked out. Too bad Milwaukee can’t hit. They’re in first place with players like [looks at old scorecard] Brocksmith Hardmantle. Sounds like he’s ready to play!
  • Kevin GausmanI had him in my “Affordable Aces” tier early in the year, considering him a good option for your SP1. The experts/drafters ranked him/took him as SP40-50. And now he’s SP2 on the Player Rater and 14th overall. Well, well, well. Mr. Magnetic has probably saved your team more than a few times, although the Giants are also getting more wins than most people expected — this is buffeting his fantasy value, and we might see that win regression hit soon, bringing him down to a more realistic top 10 finish.
  • Freddy PeraltaI told you to acquire him in my preseason pitcher rankings. He’s rewarded you by becoming SP8 on the season so far. Everything seems balanced in his game, so he’s a good candidate to maintain his position. Innings are a worry, of course, but he had as many IP as Tyler Glasnow across the past few seasons. That’s good and bad. Like sweet and sour without the fun!
  • Corbin BurnesHere’s what I wrote in the preseason: “If Corbin Burnes makes it to 170-180 IP (he came close in the minors once), you’ve got a top 10 SP.” And that’s me quoting me! Alas, Burnes got the ‘vid early in the season, which robbed him of a couple starts, and he’s been on the bad luck side of the win category. That said, he’s 9th overall in points/game, meaning that a bit of luck in the win category and continued health will propel him toward that top 10 finish.
  • Lance LynnMost people had him as SP17ish in rankings as well as ADP; although I don’t do the hierarchical thing, Lynn led off my “Affordable Aces” category, where he was technically SP11. He’s basically the most boring SP1 you could have, but he’s 6th overall in points per game and SP5 on the season. Can’t complain about that!
  • Robbie RayGiven that he was ranked/drafted as SP120 — basically drafted only in tournaments and 15+ team leagues — his ascension to SP41 is notable. He was my bold pick for the year, and if the Blue Jays could get a better bullpen, he’d be ranked even higher.
  • Joe MusgroveI put him in the volatile Tier 4, of pitchers who had the potential to be SP5-SP60. Musgrove had a tough start to 2020 and then righted the ship to finish the Covid year. In 2021, he’s been raking, and is SP16 on the year. He was ranked by experts as SP50 and drafted by the field as SP40. I was nearly twice as aggressive on Musgrove as the field, which has paid dividends for my believers followers. I mean, I wouldn’t say no if you worship me.

Misses: 

  • Luis CastilloAt least I didn’t call him the Cy Young candidate. Castillo’s been on and off but mostly off, just like my lawn mower. Thanks John Deere! We’re seeing signs of positive change in Castillo — and he has a huge discrepancy between his FIP/ERA — but he would need an immaculate finish to the year to redeem his draft value. Also, 60% of the year is left, which is plenty of time to turn things around.
  • Blake SnellHe always worried about the IP but never the talent. Now we worry about everything. He’s failed to get to the 6th inning in all but 2 of his starts this year. Yuck. But his FIP/xFIP is 1.0/1.5 points lower than his ERA, which shows the invitation for the regression faeries to come soon.
  • Dylan BundyStarted out the season as a SABRmetric darling, K’ing 40 while walking only 9. His ERA was 4.00 and his true skill stats were even better, and we were all holding on for the regression faeries to visit. Did you know Maleficent was a fairy? The evil kind. Sometimes the magic favors you, and sometimes it sacrifices you to the FIP demons. Bundy’s past month has been a disaster; instead of the ERA catching up to the FIP, he’s lost his control and has a ERA near 10 and FIP above 7. So, here’s a player that started on track and then collapsed.
  • Andrew HeaneyHe’s actually on an upward trajectory, with a sub-3.00 ERA over his last 3 starts and a solid K-BB% on the year. But, the Angels staff has just been miserable all year, as if haunted by hiring Mickey Callaway and callously cutting Albert Pujols. Maybe clubhouse attitudes are important? Whereas Bundy seems to be falling apart, Heaney seems to be ramping up, and could be a “hit” by the end of July.
  • Marco GonzalesControl is tough to learn; just ask Janet Jackson. But Gonzales had always been a control freak, as if he was Jeff Bezos trying to organize a warehouse. His BB/9 last year was below 1.00. Below. OK, regression happens. But with nearly 500 IP of track record to work with, we all believed Gonzales’ ridiculously low BB rate was real: in 4 years, his cumulative BB/9 was 1.99. This year? 3.22. His hard hit % over those years? 35%. This year? 48%. There’s regression, and then there’s just losing it. He’s got enough track record for us to know that he’ll probably be better than what he is now, but he’s still likely not returning usable value for most fantasy managers this year.

Takeaway: It’s better to hit the “top” players than miss on lower players, and my system has elevated the unlikely top SPs of Kevin Gausman, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Lance Lynn, Joe Musgrove, and Robbie Ray. You could have easily drafted that rotation — Woodruff and Lynn in rounds 3-5, Musgrove and Gausman in 7-10, and Peralta and Ray on the waiver wire — while not overpaying for the obvious studs like deGrom or Bieber. I expect all of these players to be a bit lower on the player rater come the end of the year; again, we’re working with a smaller set of data and hitters are starting to warm up. Injuries have devastated MLB teams this year (stares at the Mets), so there are too many variables up in the air to be certain that my new system is superior to other styles. However, we’re seeing early evidence that the top pitchers are indeed on track and we’re returning value to fantasy players. Hopefully, we’re succeeding and having a fun time while doing that.

I’ll bring the big table back next week! Have a happy and healthy week!

 
  1. Shitwolf says:
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    thanks man

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Thanks Shitwolf!

  2. muskysmell says:
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    Damn man, reading this article sounds like you got a ton of pitching predictions right going into the season…nicely done

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Thanks so much for the support!

  3. muskysmell says:
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    Where you got Robbie Ray, rest of season? Top 25?

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      I’m still a big doubter on this move to 2 pitches thing, and combined with the fact that he’s still allowing bombs, I’m giving him a 25% chance to land in the top 20, 70% chance in the SP20-40 range, and 10% chance to bomb the rest of the year and finish out of usability in 12-teamers.

  4. Grey

    Grey says:
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    The Cure’s Essentials is two songs long

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Yeah but they’re like 20 minutes long each.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        you must have some remix of Friday I’m Love and Just Like Heaven

        • everywhereblair

          everywhereblair says:
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          [stares at CD collection]

          I. Have. Them. All.

  5. Dong Show says:
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    In my dynasty I just flipped McClanahan for Greinke and then ZG for Charlie Morton (I am comfortably in first place, stocking up for my hopeful first ship)

    With McClanahan difficult to predict I wanted to upgrade, so who do you hold higher for ROS:
    ZG or Morton? I kind of was leaning Morton due to higher K upside and not having to face a DH hence why I made the quick flip to get him

    Great write up today EWB!

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Thanks Dong Show! I 100% agree with you on Morton. Grienke struggles to get Ks and he had a period last year with an ERA above 5.00 Morton has top 30 upside ROS and it looks like he’s got his early season troubles figured out.

  6. Love this game says:
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    Roto redraft league using QS, K, ERA, and WHIP.

    In what order are you taking Bauer, Lynn, Rodon ROS?

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Lynn, Rodon, Bauer.

      Y’all know I hate Bauer but he seems genuinely lost without his hand glue. Unless he concocts something similar, he’s going to regress to 2019 Bauer pretty quickly, and we’re already seeing the first decline in that direction.

      • Love this game says:
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        Would you take Kershaw ahead of Rodon in a roto league (K, QS, ERA, WHIP)?

        The number of innings/starts Rodon can give us ROS gives me pause on him.

        • everywhereblair

          everywhereblair says:
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          Yeah, I personally take Kershaw unless you’re in a hyper-competitive league, in which case you need that extra edge Rodon can give. But you’re absolutely right — a guy with a recently reconstructed elbow who’s gaining velocity every start could be explosive in a bad way very soon.

  7. The Perfect Game says:
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    What’s the better predictor of rest of season ERA projection – FIP, xFIP or SIERA? I was told SIERA.

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      They’re all kind of different. I’m more concerned when they *agree*, meaning that they’re about 0.50 points away from each other at most.

      FIP relies a bit more on BB%, xFIP is HR%, and SIERA takes into account fly ball/ground ball rates. xERA tries to combine all of them but sometimes has ridiculously wonky results. FIP can be misleading because we can have a pitcher who walks nobody and doesn’t allow singles — but allows HR all the time — have a really low FIP /xFIP.

      SIERA’s the more efficient “quick look.” When I’m deep diving a player, I want to see if all the “true skill” stats — SIERA, FIP, xFIP — are in “agreement.” If one is markedly different than the others, then it’s time to look deeper.

      But honestly, the best ROS ERA predictor is K-BB% — the more batters a pitcher manages themselves, the less work the defense has to do. Unfortunately, there’s not a direct translation for that correlation. So, SIERA is the best substitute IMO.

      • The Perfect Game says:
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        I look at a K-BB% above 20% being preferred.

        But, at what point do you look at a high K-BB% but say the BB% number is too high? What’s that BB%?

        • everywhereblair

          everywhereblair says:
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          For me, I let SIERA kind of manage that BB%.

          Because I’m trying to replicate success on the Player Rater rather than real-life skills, I’m fine with having fantasy pitchers in the “elite” tiers with a BB above 3% assuming their K% is elite. These pitchers *tend* to have lower ERA/WHIPs, which is what most fantasy leagues need. When SIERA correlates to those elite K-BB%, that helps propel a player higher in the ranks.

  8. LenFuego says:
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    Hey, Blair, I love The Cure … but for me Disintegration is no better than their 4th best album. It is just a bit too homogeneous for my tastes … the album does not take you on a journey like some of their other albums because the songs are not distinguishable and varied enough from each other. My top 3 are Kiss Me, Kiss Me, Kiss Me, The Head on the Door, and Three Imaginary Boys. (And I know I am way in the minority here, but if I am in a weird enough mood, I have a soft spot for The Top as well … Bananafishbones alone makes it worth the challenging listen.)

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Oh Len, the originalist!

      It’s nice being in the age now where everybody can share their old VHS on Youtube and we can see Robert Smith’s original vision for the band and where it transported over time. It’s all about the journey, like you say, and I ended up a big fan of the “Trilogy” of Pornography/Disintegration/Bloodflowers.

      But that’s the thing with prolific bands that care not for genres — something for everybody!

      • Tom says:
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        4:13 Dream, getting no respect, has lots of really good songs.

        • everywhereblair

          everywhereblair says:
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          haha! respect is bestowed to all albums, but like pitchers, they must be ranked

    • Logan says:
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      I both find your critique accurate but also subjective, because the experiential “this album is a specific mood, if it’s what you want” is what makes it special…they have other albums full of better crafted songs that are more varied, and that might be what takes you on a journey, but I like the cohesion of an album with one objective, and you could say the journey is actually an attempt to express something specific and put you in a certain headspace.

      I feel like I generally prefer these albums, but it’s all taste. I like my favorite albums to work like films or books where I can really live in the themes, undercurrents and main objective over like…a song-by-song, functionary “batting average” look at an album. For instance, early Kanye is fun as shit and less cringey in many places, but mid-career MBDTF-Yeezus Kanye is where things take off and become bigger than the music because of the ambition. I think of Disintegration as that kind of transcendent, romantic (in the classic, American-lit sense) album whereas their others are just better versions of what acts of the time were also doing (like, say, Echo and they Bunnymen or something)

      This is why I probably prefer Joy Division in general, while acknowledging song for song they probably lose.

      • everywhereblair

        everywhereblair says:
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        My true favorite album is Juggernaut Alpha/Omega by Periphery. It’s a double album with a character arc that’s told in the lyrics, and one has to really sit down with the lyric sheet and study it. There are a lot of codas and self-references both in lyrics and the melody, and it takes a solid 20 listens or more to pick up on all the nuances.

        But yeah, sometimes you just need some songs for a mood and you don’t want a story.

        Sometimes you want DFS, sometimes you want a dynasty league, right?

      • LenFuego says:
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        You make perfectly valid points, Logan.

        Disintegration is certainly a cohesive album and it does take you on a certain journey, delivered in the key of melancholy — as the title suggests, as the listener you sink into that melancholy and experience slowly disintegrating into the music.

        And the Cure’s brand of melancholy is something special. It is perhaps what they do best — at the very least it has their own indelible imprint. I like the album a lot.

        But I think subjectively speaking, I maybe just rarely want to spend 70+ minutes in that headspace — I kind of prefer something that leaves me with a bit of energy at the end, rather than emotionally drained, and the last couple of tracks leave little room for that.

        (Compare that to another melancholy album like The Velvet Underground’s self-titled 3rd album — where the band knew to finish up with After Hours, which, although still a melancholy track that perfectly fits the mood of the album, featured the wonderfully innocent vocals of Maureen Tucker that somehow manage to leave the listener off in a hopeful state of mind.)

  9. Chucky says:
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    Two start rookies Manoah and McClanahan, over one start Pablo, Bassitt and Kaprielian? H2H cats. Need two…go with the two start guys or…..?

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      I go with the two starts…Bassitt against the Yankees is a tough sell, even though I like the guy.

  10. mattj says:
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    Need an opinion on my SP’s for this week. H2H pts league. Scherzer, Gausman, Musgrove, and Ryu are my locks. Would you start Kyle Gibson, Tarik Skubal, or Logan Gilbert? Or would you just start a 3rd RP (Matt Barnes) instead of a 5th SP since I have that option (I’ve never used that option yet though). Thanks!

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      I think it’s a push between Skubal and Gilbert, and I would personally start Skubal. Unless saves are a much higher value than wins in your league, then start Barnes.

      • mattj says:
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        Thanks! I was leaning towards Skubal purely based on matchup, now I feel better about it.

        • LenFuego says:
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          Here’s a reason to feel nervous about starting Skubal — I read that his spin rate was sharply down in his last start. That makes me nervous that he might be being swept up along with Bieber and Bauer in the sticky stuff clampdown of 2021. (I have all three of those guys on my team — yikes.)

          • everywhereblair

            everywhereblair says:
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            There’s some rumors among the internet that the Bieber IL stint has to do with resting during the initial tack storm.

            I wouldn’t put it out of the range of some teams to do that.

            • LenFuego says:
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              Color me skeptical. So they would rather IL him for a couple of weeks than risk him getting suspended for a couple of weeks?

              • everywhereblair

                everywhereblair says:
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                I agree…I feel like we *might* be seeing proactive rest for “strains” as pitchers exceed their IP expectations for the first part of the season, but it seems odd that players like Cole and Bauer would just jump out there and let their spin rates show decline while others would “hide”

  11. Cable says:
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    H/H points 12 team redraft ..start 5 per week……and I hold my breath every week that I PICK THE RIGHT ONES

    D. Bundy
    L. Giolito
    J. deGrom
    L. Castillo
    C. Burnes
    C. Morton
    M. Minor
    F. Valdez
    Y. Kikuchi
    K. Maeda
    T. Gonsolin
    F. Peralta

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Assuming deGrom is healthy he’s an always start.

      Burnes, Morton, Peralta, Giolito finish out the week for me. But you’ve got a great lineup to choose from!

  12. Maeda Max: Beyond Thunderdome says:
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    Two start Maeda or one/no start Scherzer? I have no one else to plug. Scherzer appears to have dodged a bullet but it is a risk and Maeda’s matchups are so tasty if he’s righted the ship.

    Other starters are Rodon, Giolito, Glasnow and Kershaw.

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      I go Maeda — last thing we want to happen is you plug in Scherzer and he goes 2.1 IP and hits the IL.

      • everywhereblair

        everywhereblair says:
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        Just heard, Scherzer is missing his next start

  13. Five-on-One says:
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    Hi all. I need four SPs from the below list of 10 (12-team 5×5 with weekly lineups):

    2-start Snell @COL (-8) and vLAD (14)
    2-start Stripling vNYY (-10) and @MIA (8)
    2-start Kelly @SF (-1) and vMIL (3)
    PabLo @CHC (4)
    Manoah @BAL (4)
    Cobb vDET (13)
    Sandoval vDET (5)
    Urias @SD (1.6)
    Maeda @TEX (-2)
    Cease @HOU (-20)

    SON says Cobb, Sandoval, Snell and PabLo, but I’m not so sure about Snell or Sandoval. Might prefer Urias, Maeda, and Manoah

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Yeah, the SON is still biased on Snell his previous success. *Could* Snell do fine? Yup. Does he seem like he’s on track to do fine? Nope, especially not in COL or vs LAD.

      I do the Cobb/Urias/Maeda/Kelly dance. Manoah will be explosive for a bit, so he’s got upside, so I’m fine going with him. Kelly’s SON suffers from his injured 2020 sample. Hope this helps!

  14. martin rostoker says:
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    Thanks Blair for all your help and frankness!!! You have a gift to know when to move and when to hold

    The following pitchers are available on the waiver list: Jeffery Springs and Michael Fulmer

    The following players are on on my team and could be waived:

    Freddy Galvis
    Garrett Hampson
    Tyler Naquin
    Gio U
    Freddy Galvin
    Manuel Mariot
    Eric Hosmer
    Pavin Smith

    Also, I have Austin Gomber of Colorado and was going to sit him today. Do you agree?

    Thanks again

    Thanks!!!!

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Hey Martin!

      You do the hard work, I just give you the pat on the head to go ahead. The power is in *you!*

      Yeah I sit Gomber today.

      I’m hesitant on Fulmer…he was getting saves, but it’s also not *his* job. You can throw a dart at him if you like and drop somebody like Naquin, but I think they’re about equal right now. Hope this helps!

      • Martin Rostoker says:
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        Thanks so much for all your help!!

        • everywhereblair

          everywhereblair says:
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          No problem Martin!

          • Martin Rostoker says:
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            Of course, I don’t pitch Gomber and he does well

            Is that C’est la vie or the Hisenburg Uncertainty principle?

            Have a nice night.

            • everywhereblair

              everywhereblair says:
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              Yeah it’s nuts…Tatis and Machado walk into Coors Field against a rookie pitcher and come out useless.

              What are the odds of that? 5%. That stuff happens. Even a broken clock is right twice a day, right? lol

  15. johnnyhobbes says:
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    Im riding this list for the rest of my season run, i have faith

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Thanks for the support Johnny!

  16. aardvark says:
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    Most likely going to have to drop someone for an air activation.
    Who would be the drop Paddack, Heaney or Luis Garcia? 10 Team h2h league. Heavy QS points

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Tough one. Garcia’s got the weakest grasp on his job but also the highest ceiling. Honestly I drop Heaney because I think people will be off him for a little bit; Garcia and Paddack won’t come back to you if you need them.

      • aardvark says:
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        True. Ok thanks man!

  17. martin rostoker says:
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    hi Blair,

    one more question.

    Would you take Kolton Wang of waivers and then cut Freddy Galvis?

    Thanks!!!

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      I think Wong has a small edge on Galvis…hopefully he’s fully healed, but Wong was doing well before injury and would be worth the risk.

  18. Slimcompoop says:
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    Good write-up EWB! Always appreciate it:)

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Thanks for the support Slimcompoop!

  19. Jolt In Flow says:
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    I’m already all in on your pitcher predictions at the start of next year.

    Going with Grey’s hitters (as always).

    With that frankenstein of a team, I should be dominant in my leagues. I feel all warm and fuzzy inside just thinking about it.

    As well, love the table format. I’d like to see that in your articles. Breaks things down beautifully. IMO.

    Finally, great football article (where you break down fantasy football for newbies). Soaking it all up.

    Jolt
    PS. The Cure! Definitely awesome, but I’d have been happier in a New Order division myself.

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Haha, I wish there was some more depth to the divisions; most of them are the top 40s of each decade. Joy Division/New Order would break the system lol.

      Thanks for the support! The giant table will return, was just doing my football rankings this week and thought it might be time to double check that the pitching system is working. Nothing good about going forth blindy.

      Thanks for the support and hope next year is awesome for all of us!

  20. Chucky says:
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    Last minute Points Lineup adjustment, Montas v LAA or Skrubal @ KC?

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Don’t know if this gets you in time, but I’d try Skubal.

  21. Allan L says:
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    Jose Ramirez and Freddy Perelta // for // Bregman and G. Cole. Which side?

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      JoRam / Peralta wins that one for me

  22. Logan says:
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    So I know you aren’t huge on T-Roger or Greinke, and Grey graded my trade as “not a bad idea but I’d want different pitchers” but I had to take an Adolis trade for them.

    My league is smart (aware of the risk and limitations of Adolis) and rarely trades pitching without an overpay. Some teams prioritize hitting like me and can’t trade what pitching I do have, while the pitcher-hoarding community are too stubborn.

    So, with my top offense that’s first in homers and not lower than second in any category, and last in QS and both ratios (But good in strikeouts), I simply had to take it.

    I myself have no excitement about Greinke, but Rogers/Adolis seems like the heart of the trade…two guys who’ve impressed with question marks of different sort.

    I just really respect you guys opinion, so make me feel better! Sometimes, I’ve found you have to stop wishing trades were made in a vacuum, because as much as value matters, team fit can sometimes really unlock your potential!

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Yeah but keep in mind that Grey is a master fantasy lothario lol. He’s just trying to elevate your game *even* more. I don’t say this in a suck up way, but hanging around Grey for any length of time will result in learning more about the game than any blog post can teach.

      I think you’re fine, we’re already seeing the decline in Adolis. Greinke is basically an innings eater at this point in his career, but he provides value through those innings. It’s just a less reliable skill than a high K% pitcher. TRogers is also an interesting one because his minor league track record doesn’t support his MLB performance so far. But, you’re also trading a dude who has a 30%+ K rate on an awful team, so I think it all evens out :)

  23. Ralph says:
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    My SP are Nola, Alzolay, Morton, Luis Garcia, Hill, Castillo and Javier. QS roto 11 tm lg should I drop Javier for Gomber, T Davidson, McClanahan, Yarbrough, Lamet or stay put? Thanks alot!

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      I’d pick up Gomber/McClanahan/Yarbrough in that order.

      I mean, if Gomber dismantled the Padres in Coors, the sky’s the limit. Of course it’s small sample size, but we’ve been seeing hints of “really good” for a few weeks now, so I’d grab him. Yarbrough is a nice backup if Gomber fails in July.

  24. Ralph says:
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    Will Logan Gilbert be fantasy relevant this year? Thanks man

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      For deep leagues, yes. Most rookies are fantasy irrelevant in their first year; last year, David Peterson was the top rookie performer out of players like Nate Pearson, Spencer Howard, Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Sixto Sanchez…the list goes on. So, for 12-teamers or less, I’d avoid Gilbert unless we see significant notes of improvement. Hope this helps!

  25. martin rostoker says:
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    Hi Blair:

    I am in a Yahoo Points league and always enjoy your perspective and details:

    I could pick up Jeffrey Springs and Chris Flexan. I am just not sure. If I did pick up, how would you decide when to activate them? For example, use $ or team or ball park?

    My potential players to perhaps waive or just stay put:

    Manuel Margot
    Pavin Smith
    Robbie Grossman
    Raimel Tapia,
    Eric Housner
    Tyler Naquin
    Yoan Moncado

    Pitchers:

    Adrian Houser
    Austin Gomber
    Spencer Turnbull

    Thanks!!!!!

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Hey Martin!

      Flexen is making surprising strides recently; nobody’s sure if he can hold out his recent performance (because he was playing in Korea for so long we don’t have a ton of data), but he’s worth a grab if you’re needing points to finish out the week with a win. Turnbull’s injured right now and not a lot of people will be searching for him, so he’s an OK drop and then re-add when he’s healthy. Hope that helps!

      • martinrostoker says:
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        Great advice. Just took Flexan. Thanks!!!

  26. martinrostoker says:
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    Hi Blair,

    Hard to believe but on Saturday. I have both pitchers at Colorado. Adrian Hausee from the Brewers on the Road against Austin Gomber. As you would expect, they both have negative dollar values. What would you do? Any thoughts would be appreciated.

    Thanks!!!

    Thanks

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Gomber — he seems to be Coors-proof right now. Hope he avoids the silver bullet.

      • martinrostoker says:
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        Thanks!!

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