Now that we’re four positions in we can get a sense of how deep each position is.  Our thermometers?  Jedd Gyorko and Wilmer Flores.  If Wilmer cries, the thermometer has gone too deep.  So, on the top 20 1st baseman for 2017 fantasy baseball, Gyorko and Wilmer were 26 and 41, respectively.  Here, they’re 24 and 38, so we have less depth in the top 20 3rd basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball.  At the top 20 2nd basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball, they are 22 and 37.  So, 3rd base and 2nd base are fairly close, but, they’re all crazy close.  Finally, the top 20 shortstops for 2017 fantasy baseball, only has Gyorko where he is 19th overall.  So, depth rankings on infield are shortstops, 2nd base, 3rd base and 1st base, but it doesn’t tell the whole story.  Carpenter is 12th here, but 21st on the 1st basemen, and Villar is 5th here and at the 2nd basemen.  There are areas where each infield position has its strengths and weaknesses and relative equality like I’m not sure we’ve seen before, which is what everyone says about everything.  People say now we have more things we’ve never seen before than any other time in history.  Any hoo!  My projections are noted for every player and all positions are at the 2017 fantasy baseball rankings.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball:
1. Kris Bryant – Went over him in the top 10 for 2017 fantasy baseball.
2. Nolan Arenado – Went over him in the top 10 for 2017 fantasy baseball.
3. Manny Machado –Â Went over him in the top 10 for 2017 fantasy baseball.
4. Josh Donaldson –Â Went over him in the top 10 for 2017 fantasy baseball.
5. Jonathan Villar – This is a one person tier. Â I call this tier, “*shrugs*” Â Villar has been ranked twice before (2nd base and shortstops) and he just doesn’t fit into the next tier and, for my money, he doesn’t fit in the above one either. Â My money is the peso, by the way. Â As for Villar, went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball.
6. Kyle Seager – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Carpenter.  I call this tier, “Safe isn’t just the most uninspired safe word, it’s also this tier.”  This tier has very little flash.  You more or less know what you’re getting, and what you’re getting is more or less solid.  More or less is my favorite phrase to hedge with, more or less.  Frazier will have more highs and lows in his expected outcomes, Beltre will have less, but they are all relatively what they are.  As for Seager, he gives plusses and minuses a good name.  Every year he is ‘plus or minus three homers from projections,’ ‘plus or minus .05 on average,’ ‘plus or minus 10 runs and RBIs,’ ‘plus or minus one sibling from my favorite Seager.’  2017 Projections:  84/27/92/.269/4 in 591 ABs
7. Anthony Rendon – For those smart guys out there who are like, “Rendon’s safe?  Didn’t he hit negative four homers in 2015 and make me promise to never draft him again?  I require answers to my hypothetical questions!”  Yes, Rendon wasn’t great in 15 after 20, but I’m talking relatively safe.  You could pick apart everyone in this tier as being hot garbage not that long ago.  Rendon’s actually got me most excited in this tier.  Seager, Frazier, et al (not the Israeli airline) are all kinda exactly what you expect, Rendon I think has some upside.  His HR/FB% was only 10% last year and Rendon hits a ton of fly balls (16th most in majors).  If you’re looking for a guy that can outperform his ranking while also being safe, I’m gonna say Rendon.   2017 Projections:  84/25/96/.268/9 in 551 ABs
8. Justin Turner – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(Turner) re-signed with the Dodgers.  Another great signing by the Dodgers for real baseball, that isn’t that confusing for fantasy.  Grab my hand, I’ll walk you through it.  Metaphorically!  Let go of me!  Turner is exactly what he appears to be, a 22-homer, .270 hitter with plus or minus five home runs depending on how many fly balls he hits.  Last year, he hit a ton of fly balls and played a full season for the first time.  That was his ceiling, and, while it’s obviously possible, I wouldn’t expect the same.  I.e., that was Justin Turner Overdrive, wouldn’t expect it Bachman, even if he’s takin’ care of business.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2017 Projections:  81/24/92/.271/5 in 510 ABs
9. Adrian Beltre – He had a huge year last year (32 HRs, 300) after looking like his career was winding down.  Good boy, Beltre, let me pat your head.  SORRY!  I’m guessing Beltre will be somewhere between his resurgence last year and his career tail-off the year before.  2017 Projections:  85/25/97/.289/2 in 575 ABs
10. Evan Longoria – If you would’ve told me four years ago, Longoria hit 36 homers in 2016, I would’ve guessed he’s easily a top three 3rd baseman, because he must’ve done it at least three of the past four years.  Well, then I’d be *pinkie to mouth* Wrongoria!  2017 Projections:  77/29/89/.271/1 in 617 ABs
11. Todd Frazier – Maybe I’ll see if someone wants to write a post dedicated to Frazier, because I think he deserves it. Â Someone call up Son! Â There’s a lot to dig into with Frazier. Â His Ks went up, which could cause his average to plummet, but he also had a BABIP that was almost forty points off his career average going into last year. Â He became much more patient, for better and worse. Â He swung at a lot fewer pitches inside and outside the strike zone, and, when he did swing, he missed more. Â Â When he did connect, it wasn’t good contact, which explains the lower BABIP. Â What this could be: Â bad BABIP (unlucky) caused him to second guess his approach, so he stopped swinging, and became tentative. Â Or what it could be: Â he’s lost a millisecond on his swing, so he guessed a lot, which is why he pulled so many pitches and rarely hit anything up the middle. Â I’m very concerned, and I’m having a hard time spinning this into a positive. Â So, why in the safe tier? Â Well, I still can’t figure out how to get him projected for less than 30/12, so that’s safe. Â 2017 Projections: Â 72/31/91/.235/13 in 582 ABs
12. Matt Carpenter –Â Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball.
13. Jake Lamb – This is a new tier. Â This tier goes from here until Healy. Â I call this tier, “Sugar packets on Nicole Kidman’s thigh.” Â Like Tom Cruise demonstrated how to draft with sugar packets on Nicole Kidman’s thigh in Days of Thunder, I want to demonstrate to you why to draft these players. Â As for Lamb, already gave you my Jake Lamb sleeper. Â It was written all over your face! Â 2017 Projections: Â 76/26/81/.258/7 in 495 ABs
14. Maikel Franco – Already gave you my Maikel Franco sleeper.  It was written in an elevator while I held my nose.  2017 Projections:  79/30/95/.277/2 in 591 ABs
15. Alex Bregman – Looks like he’s about a year to half year away from being a top five 3rd baseman for years to come.  Here’s what I said days before Bregman came up, “Craig Biggio.  It’s a sloppy, imperfect comparison, but that’s who Alex Bregman looks like.  I watched three minutes of video of him.  So, that’s like saying there’s smoke emitting from every New York City manhole because underneath are old Filipino women making hot pretzels, who then transport them to the above ground vendors, because you found an old Filipino woman underneath one manhole cover making pretzels.  Luke, small is your sample size, said Yoda.  Now, if you buy into the Biggio comparison, which you should because Filipino women are making pretzels below New York City manholes, Biggio had three homers, six steals and hit .211 in his first 50 games.  Ya know, Hall of Famer, Craig Biggio.  And Biggio was older then than (stutterer!) Bregman is now.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I don’t throw around Hall of Fame comparisons.  The only thing stopping me from putting Bregman even higher in these rankings is he hasn’t done it yet, so there’s risk.  If he has a huge 1st half this year, you’ll never be able to touch him outside the top 25 again.  2017 Projections:  73/23/81/.259/8 in 525 ABs
16. Miguel Sano – Frazier without the speed? Â It’s a rough and tumble comparison, but it feels about right. Â Frazier could hit 40+ homers; Sano could too. Â Frazier could hit .215; Sano same same. Â Frazier has a weak sister team around him; Sano has the Twins; don’t get more weak sister than that; semicolons are fun. Â 2017 Projections: Â 69/31/78/.231/1 in 498 ABs
17. Jose Ramirez – He was tantalizing close to having 2nd base and shortstop eligibility, and maybe with Yahoo’s facacta fly-by-night eligibility, he will be eligible there. Â On top of that, Ramirez was hard to rank. Â I’m still not sure if I want to buy into him. Â The positive is speed doesn’t slump. Â Worst case scenario, maybe he gets only 5 homers and steals 20+ bags. Â That’s not great, but I’m not convinced he can’t be Altuve at 3rd either. Â He doesn’t strike out, he walks a ton, he will hit near-.300 and he stole 38 bases in Double-A. Â Everyone’s going negative on Ramirez, but when they go low, we draft them high! Â Hmm, that didn’t work as I intended it. Â 2017 Projections: Â 75/8/69/.295/25 in 541 ABs
18. Ryon Healy – Third basemen get less interesting after Healy. Â Gurriel might be something, but I see nothing, and I’m sure some will be wild for Baez and be wildly disappointed by him. Â Healy? Â He looks like he’s a 30-homer guy waiting to happen. Â Allow me to masturbate you–I mean, demonstrate to you:
Looks downright Donaldsony (Donaldsoney? Â Donaldsonny?). Â Healy’s always hit for power and average all through the minors (6 HRs, .318 in 49 Triple-A games; 8 HRs, .338 in 36 Double-A games). Â Could he be Donaldson? Â Yeah, on a better team and out of that godforsaken park. Â To pop the helium, he might just be an everyday Danny Valencia, but I like the flyer a lot. Â I may still even do a sleeper post on him too. Â And, if I don’t, I will point to this blurb when Healy breaks out saying I wanted to write a sleeper post about him. Â (If Healy crashes and burns, then we’ll never speak of this again.) Â 2017 Projections: Â 77/25/84/.287/1 in 577 ABs
19. Yulieski Gurriel – This is a new tier. Â This tier goes from here until Perez. Â I call this tier, “Gotta love upside!…Except these guys only feel like they have upside.” Â By the tier name I mean, there’s a perception the guys in this tier could be dynamic finds. Â I’d say you’re gonna want to drop them in the landmark case of sooner vs. later. Â That some think there’s something to these guys though is worth noting. Â Why you want to trust someone other than me, I’m not sure. Â Now, I’m hurt. Â Thanks! Â *sniffles* Â Jerk! Â As for Gurriel, if he were a prospect in the states without that Cuban refugee narrative, no one would even be thinking about him. Â It’s Raftee Better Than Draftee Syndrome (RBDS). Â 2017 Projections: Â 74/15/81/.277/4 in 545 ABs
20. Nick Castellanos – I know what you’re thinking, “But, Fantasy Master Lothario, you always loved Castellanos!” Â Thank you for not abbreviating the moniker. Â Yeah, Castellanos is okay, but a 22 HR, .275 hitter with no speed? Â That’s okay in deeper leagues, but, my excitement for him went from crescendo to crescend-no. Â That may or may not be cribbed from Mozart in the Jungle, one of the worst shows Cougs makes me sit through, and we still watch Homeland, which is hideously terrible. Â 2017 Projections: Â 65/22/72/.276/2 in 535 ABs
21. Eduardo Nunez – Went over him in the top 20 shortstops for 2017 fantasy baseball.
22. Javier Baez – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball.
23. Jedd Gyorko – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball.
24. Ryan Schimpf – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball.
25. Hernan Perez – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball.
26. Mike Moustakas – This is a new tier. Â This tier goes from here until Garcia. Â I call this tier, “God of Language, why does marginal sound like margarine, but it’s so far from butter?” Â This tier is dominated by guys with marginal power and/or marginal speed and your fantasy team is going to be marginal owning one of them. Â As for Moistasskiss, if the UN announced that there could be no more third base settled in the 20-25 HRs, .260-ish, zero speed territory, then there would be some serious fines levied. Â 2017 Projections: Â 71/22/79/.251/1 in 512 ABs
27. Matt Duffy –  Went over him in the top 20 shortstops for 2017 fantasy baseball.
28. Travis Shaw – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball.
29. Brandon Drury – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball.
30. Eugenio Suarez –Â When kids talk about the juiced ball era of 2016, they’re going to say, “Eugenio Suarez had 21Â homers and 11 steals.” Â Those kids won’t have friends. Â 2017 Projections: Â 60/18/72/.241/7 in 540 ABs
31. Pablo Sandoval – You ranked him so low?!  But he’s skinny now!  More attention is paid to this guy’s weight than Kristie Alley.  He’s skinny!  Great!  Who cares!  Why does he magical powers when he’s skinny?  He still averages about 15 homers a season, abnormally fat or an oddly looking skinny.  2017 Projections:  61/15/69/.254/3 in 512 ABs
32. Yoan Moncada – Already gave you my Yoan Moncada fantasy. Â It was written before the trade from the Red Sox to the White Sox, but if you do a Find for Red and Replace with White, it essentially stays the same. Â One other note, if Moncada does not make the White Sox roster out of spring, I will dock him 175-ish at-bats and drop him out of this tier. Â Sadly, there’s a better than 90% chance of that happening if Frazier stays where he is. Â UPDATE: Â Was sent down, see previous note in this blurb. Â You should’ve Yoan better! Â 2017 Projections: Â 56/8/59/.232/17 in 356 ABs
33. Howie Kendrick – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball.
34. Danny Valencia – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball.
35. Yangervis Solarte –Â Â Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball.
36. Jose Reyes – Went over him in the top 20 shortstops for 2017 fantasy baseball.
37. Trevor Plouffe – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball.
38. Wilmer Flores – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball.
39. David Freese – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball.
40. Tyler Saladino – Went over him in the top 20 shortstops for 2017 fantasy baseball.
41. Jung Ho Kang – He had a solid year last year, if you played in a league with the categories:  Homers, Sexual Assault Charges, Drunk Driving Incidents and Illegal Use of Hands.  UPDATE:  May not be able to play this season because he flew too close to Mr. Tippler and his Merry Band of Alcoholics and had his work visa revoked.  I’m sure no matter the country, he will retain his POS eligibility.  2017 Projections:  65/16/72/.277/5 in 466 ABs
42. Adonis Garcia – His name, Adonis, feels a bit misleading. Â His stats feel more like he should be named Skippy Garcia. Â Or Dweezil Garcia. Â 2017 Projections: 61/15/71/.267/3 in 515 ABs
43. Martin Prado – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end.  I call this tier, “Why did you quit before the season even started?”  I will say, if nothing else, there’s a ton of everyday starters at 3rd base.  A lot fewer platoon shituations than other positions so the end is less “Well, he might get 329 ABs and steal 25 bases, but will only play three days a week.”  The negative to that is everyday starters like in this tier are just not great.  As for Prado, he gets a bad rap.  Dot dot dot.  If someone writes a diss track about him.  2017 Projections:  63/9/70/.290/2 in 535 ABs
44. Chase Headley – Hopefully, Chase Headley’s biggest fan, JayWrong, doesn’t see where I’ve ranked him. Â I can’t handle a mutiny! Â 2017 Projections: Â 60/13/66/.244/5 in 491 ABs
45. David Wright – The news out of New York states Wright’s already begun simulating baseball activities. Â Thankfully, not in Taiwan, or he would get arrested. Â “You simulate, you get busted!” Â That’s the ‘Just Say No’ of Taiwan. Â 2017 Projections: Â 42/4/46/.238/4 in 267 ABs
46. Jurickson Profar – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball.
47. Yunel Escobar – The Sciosciapath is just crazy enough to start Yunel for 517 at-bats again this year.  Now, is he crazy enough to hit him leadoff for 515 ABs again?  I got a dollar that says he is.  Though, my dollar has a picture of Alfred E. Neuman on it.  2017 Projections:  63/7/51/.282/2 in 527 ABs
Kang 41st? Do you think he’s getting suspended?
@SquatSauce: Wouldn’t be surprised
@SquatSauce: they’ve now at least twice given out (or are about to give out with familia) month+ to guys who’s battered women did in fact retract things later. kang has the booze thing, and the MUCH worse drugging/rape thing to deal with.
if they are giving out month+ to people on suspicion of hitting women who later at least pretend to have liked it and/or say it didn’t happen a guy date raping people (whether true or not) he barely knows could get quite ugly.
Grey!
Great post, though I fear even you can’t make 3B exciting. Most likely ’cause we’ve seen practically all of these posts (practically) elsewhere and our collective attention span is about 20 minutes!
There a few gems to be had here in this tier – Bregman stands out the most. If he has that breakthrough season this year, the person who drafted him in the 10th round with a very good supporting cast will most likely win their fantasy league.
Cheers,
Ante
@Ante GALIC: Thanks (I think)!
@Grey: Grey!
a. What? I don’t understand your parenthetical comment!! Lol, I love everything about the post. It’s just that 22/47 were seen elsewhere and maybe because 3B comes at the end of the infield positions. Sorry if I offended you, it was not and never will be my intention.
b. Also, I love everything about you and the site. To wit, when you went to the dog show, the time you went to the antique show and spent like hours getting in to see not too much and the passing of your very scary kidney stones!
c. Otherwise things are okay in Farchana, USA. Dropped off Ben Carson at the airport this afternoon. He’s off to the second part of his three-legged tour to the east of Chad. He gets back to N’Djamena on Friday!
Cheers,
Ante
A. Ha, not offended, was kidding B. Damn, that’s a blow by blow of my worst moments of the last 18 months… I went to Key West for Xmas, that was fun, though, I did get a bad sinus infection that I’m still dealing with…Damn! C. N’Djamena or as I call it, the chorus in a Lionel Richie song
I have quite the conundrum with 3b and all my keepers in general
I’m in a 12 team, 5×5 opb and QS instead of Avg and w league, keep 6.
22 roster spots available, including pitching and hitting.. No CI or MI, only 1 utility.
I have:
Blackmon who can be kept in the 4th 2017, 2nd in 2018
Sano, odor, Nola, Franco in the 20th,18th
Jon Villar, bregman, taillon, David dahl 22,20,18
Always insightful and humorous. Thanks for the read!
@OJ Simpson: oh and I have Benintendi in the 22,20,18 as well
@OJ Simpson: I’d keep Blackmon,Odor, Villar,Dahl,Brengman,and Beni. With only one utility player you have guys with the same position eligibility. Makes it hard to figure out but your league probably has a big FA pool to choose from.
@OJ Simpson: Oh, Beni over Franco
@OJ Simpson: Thanks! Blackmon, Odor, Franco, Villar, Bregman, Dahl
Grey, your rankings are as much a portent of things to come as pitchers and catchers reporting! Look forward to them every morning!
I can’t figure out the Astros. I own both Bregman and Gurriel in a keeper so I’m hoping Gurriel will play 1st. That’s assuming AJ Reed doesn’t come out of nowhere and remember how to hit! It’s nice to have that luxury but in fantasy the ABs are what count and I’m hoping both Gurriel and Bregman get enough!
@howtathor: Thanks! I think Gurriel might get screwed by Reed…Bregman’s safe
Hey Grey,
Great write up as always. Just saw that the dodgers traded De Leon for Forsythe.. I think the Rays absolutely ripped the Dodgers off.. thoughts ? Not like I care , I’m a Yankees fan :)
@Josh-NYC: The Rays may make another trade now. They have Starting pitchers under team control that other teams want.
Do you rank based on likelihood of reaching your projections? Like Franco has same projections as longo but is lower. Whattup with that?
@Larry: Longo’s safer
Any bump for Forsythe? 10 more Runs?
Other than Catcher is there any weak position depthwise this year? Thx
@Bernie blues: Theya ll have their moments… OF’s a little weak
That Healy GIF looks downright Troutian too. GIFs always make my day better. Deezamn.
Gentlemen’s bet for ye – Drury finishes above both Bregman and Healy on player rater, or player tater as autocorrect would say. This is the year that Drury makes good on those 51 doubles he hit in A ball and continues his 6 HR/19 RBI/.357 September.
@Ra’zbahl Al Ghul: I think he has a chance. I’m Also high on Drury. His major HR issue is he just doesn’t hit enough fly balls.
@Ra’zbahl Al Ghul: Haha… I like Drury, but I worry Ketel steals 200 ABs from him
@Ra’zbahl Al Ghul: Would you trade him for Gsellman and Isan Diaz?
@Ralph Lifshitz: boom!
@Big Odio: LoL apparently yes
@Ra’zbahl Al Ghul: Hahaha
@Ralph Lifshitz: to quote the words that FOH loathes – time will tell
@Ra’zbahl Al Ghul: hey, thats code for “I can justify any mistake I make now because you will forget about it later”
6×6 roto, categories are: R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, SLG. Must keep 4. Which 2 do I NOT keep?
Machado
JD Martinez
Rizzo
Frazier
Villar
Polanco
Thanks
@David:
Frazier and Polanco
I agree. Does that mean you love Villar? Over Lindor? Over Murphy? Over KSeager?
@Chucky:
I wud take Villar over all 3 of them..
Speed kills, I agrezza with ya
@David: Agree with MP
I’m supposed to get excited about Bregman as a keeper with a Biggio comp? I don’t want a 20/75/.285 guy at 3B in 5 years!
@Cram It: Yeah, but you’ll be so happy with his plate discipline.
I like the Biggio comp. How about Robin Yount?
@The Great Knoche: I do like a good plate of discipline.
@Cram It: Biggio was 20 HRs, 47 SBs
@Grey: I didn’t see much in his profile that suggests he’ll steal many bases, but hopefully whatever speed he has translates to more doubles and triples than SB’s.
Oh, I meant what Biggio did… Bregman has 7-steal speed
@Grey: Right. You’re confusing me even more with the Biggio comp now.
Just what I wanted…. Muahahahahaha….. Nah, I meant, looked like him… Like if you see him swing the bat, you think he looks like Biggio…
@Grey: Ohhhh. Ha. That makes more sense. Now make a Bregman comparision to someone’s stats he should produce over the next 10 years, ya bum!
Haha… 30-12-.290
Grey, in a 5 x 5 roto league, which two would you prefer for 2017?
Bryant (1B eligibility in Yahoo) + Franco
Hosmer + Bryant
@HarperBetterThanTrout: What kind of name/handle is that?!! Wrong on so many levels LoL
@Ra’zbahl Al Ghul: My guess is a handle that was born in preseason 2016?
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Bryant Franco!
@Ra’zbahl Al Ghul:
Thank you, sir
@Ra’zbahl Al Ghul:
Lol chill. Just one to ser how many get pissed off. Did not get an answer / advice about my question from you :)
@HarperBetterThanTrout: Ha! Your first victim of the day. My comments go to moderation so it got delayed. I have a fantasy krush on Franco
@HarperBetterThanTrout: Bryant/Hosmer
How would you rank the Nicole Kidman tier in OBP? Would you put Sano above Lamb and Franco? This seems like the tier I will be targeting with the top guys being kept by other teams. I could keep Sano but I’d have to let go of J.D. (Betts, Trea Turner, Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Strasburg/Carrasco)
@RePete: I wouldn’t move Sano up unless it was a dynasty and I needed straight power, then above for upside, but even there, they are close
This post is like Todd Frazier but with words!!!
A. In a keep 7 league where you’re already spending $115 (out of $260) on your first 6 keepers, would you rather keep a $6 Khris, a $24 Polanco, a $9 Duffy, or a $5 Rich Hill as your 7th man?
B. Hoping onto RePete’s comment, who gets the biggest boosts in OBP? Villar, Rendon, Todd, Carpenter, Lamb, and Sano? Seems like Carp gets the biggest boost, as he turns into a Votto-type in OBP.
C. At the risk of talking about Todd Frazier, which I could do constantly . . . I’d argue that there’s some stolen base upside to those numbers, as they’ll truly have no reason to hold him at first a la Myers with SD.
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Ha! A. Depends who your other keepers are… B. Villar C. Yeah
@Grey: Other keepers are Kershaw ($30), Rizzo ($33), Betts ($28), Story ($11), Dahl ($10), and Moncada ($3). Where does that land you on those potential 7th keeper guys?
Tough call, I’d prolly go Duffy
@Grey: Thanks! Tough call between Duffy and . . . Hill?
Yeah
Certainly, our thoughts are with Yordano Ventura’s family and friends as they lay him to rest today.
RIP Yordano
Just another fantasy player I have owned that has died over the years.
Darryl Kile
Mike Darr
Jose Lima
Nick Adenhart
Tommy Hansen
Core Lidle
Oscar Taveras
@Malicious Phenoms: Yeah, shame
frazier also scares the crap outta me, esp if he were to be traded to a bad homer park (which could easily happen at any old time as that team is punting this year nearly as hard as the team from unicorn vomit or SD ever did lately, or ATL in past 2 years). only hope is his ADP price falls from how awful his average is, but i’m worried it won’t fall enough to be valuable. for dynasties i’d just get off that bus NOW.
@goodfold2: Agreed . . . but I think it’s more likely he gets traded to someone like the Red Sox, which would do wonders for his BABIP thanks to the Monster in LF. Unless the Red Sox honestly plan to start Panda and/or Holt there every day . . .
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: yeah, not only plan to, but continue to all year, something i doubt happens, unless they are completely out of playoffs or something of that nature.
@goodfold2: I don’t see anything to be scared about regarding Frazier. I’d say he’s pretty reliable for 30+ HR’s, double digit steals and a sub .250 avg. Not drafting a guy for fear he’s getting traded and to a poor ball park isn’t good strategy to me. I’ve seen that fail many times.
@Cram It: the worry is the hard hit% and contact fell a LOT last year. i’m saying EVEN NOW i’m worried, i agree it’s silly to preemtively dodge somebody from a trade that hasn’t happened yet (i traded FOR blackman in numerous dynasties late last year, didn’t overpay though, it was pretty clear the guy(s) i got him from did in fact think he was leaving COL soon).
some of this is by now i’m not in any AVG leagues anymore, only OPS or OBP or both. but last year’s hr/f% and power index numbers indicate he probably should’ve hit like 34-36 HR’s, not 40. i’d certainly take 60-40 (not lay) that he doesn’t hit 30 HR’s this year.
i’m still buying, but def not at last year’s price, and since people see that shiny 40 next to his name, and some of the slightly more attuned see the low BABIP (it was really low) i’m guessing it’s possible he costs MORE than last year, at minimum the same.
@goodfold2: Eh, that’s a case of over analytics to me, though I’m probably in the minority around here when it comes to advanced metric analyzing. He’s in his prime, I don’t think a dip in hard hit % in one year is an indicator of much at this juncture. I could just as easily say his BABIP was an insanely low .236, and calls for correction.
But I hear what you’re saying on his perception. Doubtful you’ll get him below market price as long as he’s hitting bombs and stealing bases.
@Cram It: right, and the bigger fear here (for me) is holding him too much longer in dynasties in case that contact rate and/or hard hit rate falls even more, as then his trade value’d fall to shit. for this year alone it probably isn’t too terrible, and i’d agree that he’s likely safe for 30.
the BABIP regression (.270ish BABIP is what i’m seeing projected for this year) actually thinks he is exactly a .250 hitter this coming year. at 31 i’m even more comfortable saying he gets less than 10 steals than 30 HR’s as well.
@goodfold2: Agree but he could go somewhere better
@Grey: true, BOS would up his value quite a bit at counting stats, and that panda/holt garbage show might wear thin for a competing team really quickly.
Totally
Unrelated question:
Are the Steamer projections on the individual player pages updated for 2017?
Thanks.
@Matty: Not yet, early to mid-Feb
Hey grey,
I was offered jd Martinez Anthony rendon and Jeff samardzija for Stephen piscotty Kyle Seager and sonny gray.
It is a 12 team “dynasty” where we keep 20 players. Do you think it would be wise for me to do this deal or no based off of my keeper lineup?
C. Jt realmuto
1B.
2b. Jose Altuve
3b. Kyle Seager Potentially Anthony rendon
Ss Xander Bogaerts
Of Giancarlo Stanton
Of Ryan Braun
Of. Stephen piscotty. Potentially jd Martinez
Utility. Jackie Bradley Jr
Utility. Jay Bruce
Sp Lance McCullers
Sp Sonny gray. Potentially samardzija
Sp Aaron Nola
Sp Jameson taillon
Sp Blake snell
Sp Collin mchugh
Sp Trevor Bauer
Rp kelvin Herrera
Rp raisel Iglesias
Bench gleyber torres
Bench Bradley zimmer
Also do you think I should keep aj reed over any of those guys.
Thank you as always
Also, it’s a 7×7 head to head league.
R hr RBI sb avg obp xbh
W L sv Ks era whip qs
@Matt: I’d take JD
Thank you!
No problem!
I now want to see a gif of Healy punching that neo nazi Richard Spencer.
@Mrs. Featherbottom: If anybody I’d want Odor for that job.
@Copperhead Road: HAHA
@Mrs. Featherbottom: HA
rendon’s never had a HR/F rate over 10% and his other power indicators are quite a bit worse than the last time he had even that many (2014). he’s had 2 seasons of 10% HR/F and the other two are 7% and 6%.
@Mobin Can’t Hack It: Was over 10% in 2014
@Grey: it was 10.4, so yes. i didn’t realize how much rounding down it was when i typed 10% above. almost max rounding down.
now that i’m at fangraphs i’m seeing the career average is 9.2 as well. but other than being traded somewhere really good (or at least out of the by far worst division for hitting in baseball he currently resides in) you’d have to assume a decent jump to get to 25 HR’s (at age 27 certainly possible)
Yeah, career average is 9.2 but that was with awful 2015…. I think he’s going to be a breakout from Nats, and make up for Murphy’s down swing
I was terrified that was Ventura in the gif for a second
@Clogged Rosterman: Oh I didn’t even think of looking
@Clogged Rosterman: @Grey:
Not Ventura, he was number 30
I thought you were the contend champion, nary a contend in here
Haha
I hate catchers as much as everyone should. (Like George HW Bush hated broccoli and the broccoli lobby hated him). But with this caveat I’m stuck in a two catcher league and contemplating Segura/ Baez for Gattis/ Norris. I have Schoop/ Story up the middle and my other options will be real drivel from the draft.
Am I crazy? I know need plays a role here, but I just hate catchers so baddddd
Yeah, little crazy… Segura side
Tey Grey – standard 5×5 roto auction keeper league prices below are 2017 and increase annually by $5- which side do you prefer:
J. Donaldson ($21) for F. Lindor ($12) and S. Piscotty ($13)
Donaldson
Do you see Sano improving in the batting average department anytime soon? Within the next 2-3 years? Thats the only way that I see him being relevant.
He had a 36% K-rate last year, no one in the history of the game has ever hit for a respectable average with that
Grey,
Im looking to get someone for holds in my league as a free agent. My choices are:
Pedro Strop (CHC)
Bob Hand (SD)
Tony Sipp (HOU)
Carl Edwards, Jr (CHC)
Who should go for in order of wanting. I was thinking of that order. WHat do you think?
Strop
I have a 4th, 5th, 6th and 8th round pick available. should I start at 8 and slowly go up to the 4th?
Yup
thats exactly what I did
Cool
Alex Bregman (2016) 49 games 31/ 8/34/2/0.264 0.317 BABIP
Paul Goldschmidt (2011) 48 games 28/8/26/4/0.250 0.323 BABIP
(boner)
Haha
Grey!
I was waiting for this post for clarity on Todd Frazier…
With a strong September and a 40/15 season, i was happy with last year’s service but it may be time for me to move on from Frazier.
Frazier has sacrificed average for power – I want to ask why you think he will dip to 31hrs but i think you answered that, should Frazier hit between 35 and 40hrs, does he move between Rendon and Seager?
Last three seasons:
.273 29hr
.255 35hr
.225 40hr
Yeah, but that’s only like a round boost… So, 5th round vs. 6th
You have Ramirez ranked 17 but you seem to be high on him in your write up. D.J. Lemahieu was kinda the same way at 2B. The ranking was not high but your capsule was. Can you give some more insight on these guys? I think they will be good values in my league as we don’t pay a lot for speed in our auction.
“….Ramirez was hard to rank. I’m still not sure if I want to buy into him. The positive is speed doesn’t slump. Worst case scenario, maybe he gets only 5 homers and steals 20+ bags. That’s not great, but I’m not convinced he can’t be Altuve at 3rd either. He doesn’t strike out, he walks a ton, he will hit near-.300 and he stole 38 bases in Double-A.”
Not sure what else you want… He could go 5/20 which is not great… He will hit for a solid average, that’s the only definite
on WSOX and moncada playing time, i have no clue why they need asche larry to be DH’ing over there. work at 3B on defense has some argument to it, but that would only make any real sense if they hadn’t already punted wins this year, and it sure looks as if nobody has done more of that than WSOX. just have toddfather DH and moncada play 3B. really lawrie clearly needs more time off that he’s ever gotten to at least attempt to keep him healthy for like the first time ever, so you’d think they’d give moncada some at bats there too.
Don’t disagree with this but it doesn’t mean that’s the way the Sox will go
@The Harrow: when moncada was coming up he was evaluated as that he was likely to eventually be able for defense at any position not named C/SS
I know, and White Sox are going nowhere so you’d think they’d like to bring him up but…
@Grey: this is a franchise known for punting catcher D for god’s sake
Yeah
I was disappointed to see Castellanos so low. He missed so much time last year I figured prorated out to 160 games he’s got to be better than your projections. Nope. 25/78. WTF? How does a hit only guy in that lineup only get 78 RBIs over 160 games? What’s the point? Damn.
Ha
It’s RA week for me. Plotting where to hide in the back so these young punks don’t get too wild for me.
You need to work as an RA this week?
@Grey: I would’ve been a piss poor RA. I’m getting Rugged on Sunday.
The show?
@Grey: RA the Rugged Man, the hip-hop emcee, is partaking in a musical concert on Sunday and I will be in attendance.
Nice! Wish I were going… you said it was a solid venue too, right?
@Grey: Brand new place in the cultural district. Has a 400 seat theater. Should be cool but not conducive to his wild shows.
Hoping to hear you’re taking a driverless Uber there and home
@Grey: Haha. Uber or the bus. Only about 3 miles from me, tops. Might get better stories from public transportation.
You don’t want those kind of stories
@Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: Where’s the one you’re going to, NY? I’m trying to make it to one in Hamden CT on the 1st
@nick the dick: Nah he’s coming to Pittsburgh actually. Until me and 13 other people are there and he never comes back.
@Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: Ah, last one I went to coudn’t have been more than 40 or 50 people and he gave zero fucks, rocked that shit into a moshpit…more important question – have you been practicing your Uncommon Valor lyrics? You can’t just hop in at the end and say ‘God take God give’
@nick the dick: That’s what’s weird, this is a legitimate theater with seats, don’t think there will be crazy moshing, not that I’m complaining. I’m old and my chick listens to Mumford and shit.
Ha, I still get tripped up somewhere before “pictures I painted is vivid”. I did go back this weekend and listen to some Die, Rugged Man, Die and that AFRO EP.
@Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: Ha yeah, you can’t sit and listen to RA! Don’t know if he’ll do a whole lot off of Die Rugged Man, although he should. I think it’s about time he drops a new album after he’s done touring
Yeah I’m not sure how it’s going to work with seats and all. There’s also a break dancing competition that starts at 4pm in another area and ends on stage before the show.
Yeah it’s been a while now. Think I saw that he was working on a new one a while ago.
Who? RA? When was his last album? 2012?
16 team dynasty. 7×7 with ops and H extra cats. looking to upgrade catcher. wilson ramos is on the block and i’m interested in him. are there any of these prospects that you would NOT include in a deal for him? Thanks.
AJ Reed, HOU
Dominic Smith, NYM
Brock Stewart, LAD
Jeff Hoffman, COL
Carson Fulmer, CHW
Matt Strahm, KC
Kolby Allard, ATL
Francis Martes, HOU
Trent Clark, MIL
Isan Diaz, MIL
Hey Grey,
Guy in my league wants Judge real bad. He offered my a 4 dollar Familia for Judge who is a minor league keeper for me. Its an OBP ten eam mixed keeper.
Thanks,
Whatever
Sounds fine
Mr Grey, 20 keeper dynasty
Would you trade my Chris sale and Joey Gallo for his Gregory Polanco and Danny Salazar?
If so why, if not also why, thanks!
I would
Hey Grey,
its time to pick my keepers again. I dread trying to trim the roster down to 10.
12 team H2H 5X5 keeper league. We keep 10
Ill trim the fat a bit and leave a pared down list
N.Arenado
J.Bautista
B.Buxton
B.Dozier
T.Frazier
N.Mazara
M.Sano
AJ Pollock
Y.Puig
C.Seager
M.Bumgarner
G.Cole
D.Duffy
A.Chapman
Who do you like best?
Leave off Bautista, Sano, Cole, Puig
@Grey:
Kind of surprised that you both like Mazara as a keeper over those others.
I would throw back
Sano
Puig
Cole
Buxton
Grey,
12 team 6 x6 auction keeper league. Extra categories are OPS and holds. $260 auction budget. We can keep 5 players. Free agent pick ups can only be kept for following year and drafted players can be kept at draft price until year 3. In year 3 you can keep them at draft price and then lose them or you can contract them up to 4 years with their price increasing $5 a year starting with year 1 of the contract.
I have Machado and it’s year 3 so I ‘m going to contract him but I don’t know how long to make it for. I have him at 19. So he will become 24 this year with a contract, 29 yr 2 34 yr 3 39 year 4. To help compare last year Bryant went for 46, Betts 47, Trout 70. Stanton 61 and McCutchen went for 58.
I’m thinking I give him a 4 year deal but was curious how many years you would do?
Thanks
Machado — 39 for 4 years
Grey,
Where would you rank Moncada amongst 2B once he regains eligibility there.
Around 17/18
Grey! Would you trade Hendricks and B Rodgers for David Dahl in a dynasty? Or is that too much?
Bit much
The group of Franco/Sano/Bregman has me interested.
Their ADP on NFBC is Franco (122) /Sano (112) /Bregman (94).
ESPNs early rankings have Franco (182) / Sano (114) / Bregman (84).
Ding ding ding, I’ll be owning Franco again.
Yup, like Franco a lot again
Grey, I am sure you are too busy, but I figured I would throw it out there.
I have a 15 team $200 entry keeper league that has an opening. Pretty big payout end of year. If I were to tell you that you don’t have to pay your entry fee and that the league would cover it for you, would u have any interest? No big deal if not, just thought I would ask. Thanks either way sir.
Thanks for asking! Maybe let’s talk tomorrow…
@Grey: sounds good sir. Have a good night
Hi Grey,
Love the post about your Top 10’s and 20’s. Could you please help me with the decision about my final keepers? I am going to keep Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado without a doubt. I can add 3 players to my final list. I am not sure if Anthony Rizzo is that much better than Freddie Freeman. I am able to keep Rizzo over Freeman, but in order to do do so I would have to drop relative bargains like Daniel Murphy and Yu Darvish. I could also opt for Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta or Jacob deGrom instead of Rizzo or Freeman. In short, these are my options:
1) Machado, Arenado, Rizzo (plus Wade Davis and Jacob deGrom);
2) Machado, Arenado, Freeman (plus Murphy and Darvish);
3) Machado, Arenado, Sale/Arrieta/deGrom (plus Murphy and Darvish).
I am looking forward to your advice.
@Spot: Oh, I am in a OBP league.
in my dynasty league I have Bregman, Rendon, and Turner at 3rd. I need to trade Turner for cap reasons. My pitching includes Jon and Sonny Gray, Harvey, Waino, Berrios, Kazmir and some prospects. I was offered Degrom for my choice of Rendon or Bregman. Cap wise it is a wash. It would allow my to cut cap with a different SP. Would you do it and if so who would you deal? I don’t want to kick myself in a couple years.
Don’t love it
Grey..
Castellanos last year went .285 / 18 / 58 in 110 games. Thats .285 / 27ish HR / 85ish RBIpace over 162 games. How is that ranked that low? Don’t trust him to be healthy?
He feels like a 22-homer guy in 120 games or a 150 games… I’ll believe the 25+ HRs when I actually see it
in dynasty: you trade Donaldson for bregman? from the looks of it you see Donny on the downward and breggy on the upward.
thanks
Nah, too much
12 team H2H 5X5
Is jose ramirez worth keeping in the 12th round? I go offense early, pitchers pitchers pitchers late since I stream. Keeping in in 12th Rd as my 3rd OF or UT? Thanks
You called Boss? I’ll work on a Frazier post. FYI, I did submit a piece on Turner and Franco before reading this so…..my seppuku knives are sharpened and ready.
Please fall on your knives and have someone spin you by your ankles if your Frazier post does not redeem you