Are the top 20 1st basemen for 2022 fantasy baseball good? How do you define good? Is good definable? Are you Plato? What is a Plato? Any hoo! This post goes on for about 1.8 million words, so let’s dive in. Here’s Steamer’s 2022 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2022 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. The projections noted in this post are my own, and I mention where tiers start and stop. Subscriptions are up and running, and you can already get Rudy’s Draft War Room. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2022 fantasy baseball:

NOTE: All 2022 fantasy baseball projections are based on a 162-game season, and will be until we hear definitively there will be less games, due to the CBA. Also, I’m going on the assumption the NL is getting the DH.

NOTE II: All my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.

NOTE III: Free agents are listed as just that and not yet projected. Once a guy signs, I will write out their blurb and add in projections, or remove them, if they sign in an unfavorable place. They are ranked currently where I think they might be if they sign on for a full-time job.

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Already went over him in the top 10 for fantasy baseball.

2. Freddie Freeman – Already went over him in the top 20 for fantasy baseball.

3. Matt Olson – This is a new tier. This tier goes until Au Shizz. I call this tier, “This Is Why I’m Hot lyrics.” If you Google ‘This Is Why I’m Hot lyrics,’ Google replies, “Are you serious?” If you click, “Yes, I’m serious.” Google responds, “This Is Why I’m Hot, This Is Why I’m Hot, This Is Why…Continue?” If you click to continue, Google adds, “This Is Why I’m Hot, This Is Why I’m Hot, This Is Why I’m Hot, This Is Why–Seriously, how long do you need me to go on with this?” By the tier name, I mean, you should know what you’re getting from all of these guys. As for Olson, it took a few years of me waiting for Olson to be god-like. To become Allahson, to misquote Elvis Costello. Then, I looked at Olson’s career numbers and I’m like, “Wait, uh, why are you waiting for Olson to get good? He already is good.” Olson’s never been bad, except for the 2020 season, and, seriously, once and for all, thy kingdom come, may we never reference the 2020 season again. It was a weird year, and, seriously, I think it’s best to look at all players’ stats like this:  2018, 2019, 2021. Maybe there’s something to gleam every once in a while from 2020, but for the most part, 2021 or skip a year back. If we do that, Olson’s number are 36/.267, then 39/.271. There’s no mystery here at all. He’s clearly a 35+ homer, .265 hitter. This is why he’s hot. UPDATE: Traded to the Braves. Looking forward to the Moneyball sequel where Billy Beane masking tapes a glove to a cactus, their new 1st baseman. So, Olson could hit the ball out of Yellowstone. In fact, he just hit the ball out of Yellowstone, only they call it the Coliseum. This year the A’s are going to be playing in Please Forward Mail From Here Park. Okay, anyway, I need to let it go. The A’s want to suck, let’s let them suck. Oddly enough, according to Statcast, Olson would’ve hit only 34 homers last year in Atlanta, but hit 39 in Oaktown. Meh, he’s a 40+homer guy in any stadium, it’s just a matter of getting into enough fastballs. 2022 Projections: 93/37/109/.266/3 in 584 ABs

4. Pete Alonso – After hitting 53 homers his rookie year, he’s coming off a bit of a down year. OR IS HE?! Damn, Mr Reversal Question, you’re like an em-effin’ cat jumping out of my closet. Chill, my heart, brah! Last year, Albombso’s xSLG last year was .539; in his rookie year, it was essentially the same at .544. In case you were wondering, a .539 SLG would’ve been 12th in the league, right after — You guessed it! — Matt Olson. What, you thought I was ranking for fantasy baseball? These are some xSLG ranks! No, they’re not. Please don’t comment, if these are xSLG ranks, then where are my fantasy baseball rankings, because that might just push me over the edge. Also, I go over Pete Alonso in the video at the top of the page. 2022 Projections: 86/42/98/.253/1 in 581 ABs

5. Paul Goldschmidt – If I need to tell you who Au Shizz is, then I have a bridge in the state of Pennsatucky to sell to you. Honestly, jokes aside (were these jokes?), Au Shizz was massively hurt by being promoted so late (first full season at 24), because he’s putting together a solid Hall of Fame case if he were about three years younger. Now, at the age of 34, he needs, well, a lot still to reach any sort of real milestone number, as he sits on 280/.293 with 1572 hits. Any hoo! “One more good year, please, sir,” I say with my hands out in the gruel line to Au Shizz. 2022 Projections: 91/30/97/.289/8 in 572 ABs

6. Jose Abreu – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Riley. I call this tier, “Dearest Martha, I miss your muffins.” This tier made me feel like I was on the battlefield and missing home. This tier is such a bummer because these are guys I liked a lot in previous years, but I’m not drafting this year, unless they fall. They were also massive struggles with where to rank them. Struggled with where I wanted to rank Abreu for like 54 seconds, which is 53 seconds longer than every other player. He is still a lock for 30/100. The ribbies are real, as Eve said to her girlfriends. About to start calling Jose Abreu, McRibbies, because he’s a factory that produces them. Can’t figure out a way to get around his BABIP, though. Let me tell you a little story: A guy gets older and he continues to put meat on the balls and screams, “That’s a-spicy meatball!” as he runs to first at about the same speed as an 80-year-old in the mall at 6 AM. See also Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera. The once .320+ BABIP becomes .300 or worse. The ball is still hit hard, but the BABIP falls because now fielders are standing on the edge of the grass or deeper and throwing out the runner after six bobbles. Not saying Abreu can’t hit 30 homers still, but he might hit closer to .250. Getting out on him completely feels premature like your balding head, but the bottom could drop out here. 2022 Projections: 81/30/101/.255/1 in 541 ABs

7. Austin Riley – Also, struggled with where to rank Riley. Couldn’t land on whether or not I wanted to draft him. If there were literally any steals (zero in 291 career games), it would’ve made my decision easier. A 30/7/.250 possibility is easier to swallow than a 30/0/.250. Even a 35/0/.270 season is fine, at the right price, but this is the right price, not before some of the above guys. I’ve seen Riley as high as Olson/Alonso in drafts, and even higher than them in some instances, and I just don’t see how 40/2/.260 from Alonso or Olson equates to Riley’s 33/.250-.280. I guess if Riley does 33/.300, then shucks be golly, he’s worth it. Shucks be golly is me bringing in the HeeHaw demographic. Just go with it if you’re one of dem dar’ No’therners. In the end, if you can’t figure out whether to draft a guy, there’s so many other fish to reel in, just toss this one back, if you had Riley to toss. Okay, that metaphor was going all right at first. 2022 Projections: 87/33/98/.262 in 588 ABs

8. Jared Walsh – This is a new tier. This tier goes until Bryant. I call this tier, “Boy, you’re goin’ up.” Here’s Mary J. Blige, if she were looking at the guys in this tier:

Sleepers don’t come easy
Boy, please believe me
Since you hit a dong
Everything’s goin’ long
Why’d the announcer have to say to that baseball, “Goodbye?”
Look what you’ve done to me
I can’t stop these tears from fallin’ from my eyes
Ooh baby

Oooh baby love
You’re goin’ up, you’re goin’ up
Mmm ooh you’re goin’ up on my draft sheets
Ooh I, I…
You’re goin’ up
You’re goin’ up
Cause you ain’t around baby
If I wait too long in drafts.

Now if we can get Mary J. Blige or a Mary J. Blige impersonator to record that, I think we might have a hit single. Clearly, this tier is guys I like. Also, I don’t mind loading up on a position of strength, so I could even see starting to draft cornermen already by this point. I’ll go over how to draft at a later point, but the idea of having Walsh, and Vlad Jr., well, yum.

As for Walsh, it still pains me that I looked at a 9-homer, 2020 season and thought, “This is a good guy to name a sleeper and draft in every league,” as I did with Jared Walsh, then literally the day before the 2021 season, I lowered Walsh about 200 spots in my rankings. It means nothing, of course. By the time 99% of people drafted, Walsh was still ranked higher by me than everyone, but I like to keep my shizz pristine, and I hate that weak-kneed shizz. Does any of this matter for this year? Fellas and five lil’ hers, if we’re being honest, a lot of this doesn’t matter. These rankings are a vibe! So, Jared Walsh’s Launch Angle was cut in half, and that caused his fly ball rate to fall pretty dramatically. That’s not great. The great stuff is he still hit 29 homers in 530 ABs. If he gains back just a hair of those fly balls, he could hit 35+homers and he’s always a solid average hitter. More good news: His Launch Angle fell mostly in June to August, and bounced back nicely at the end of the year. August and September show his true promise: 7 HRs and .301 in 166 ABs. 2022 Projections: 81/30/93/.289/2 in 583 ABs

9. Ryan Mountcastle – This is Mountcastle, the player, not the character from the BBC drama, Mountcastle.

“Lift four people?! Are you buggering crazy?”
“Mountcastle, I meant, four people got in the lift, ya know, an elevator.”
“Ah, yes, I was testing you, like this DNA.”

That’s Mountcastle and his partner Cedric Mullins. Again, not the BBC detective show. So, Mountcastle hit 33/4/.255 last year with a 27.5% strikeout rate with a Chase Rate that is one of the worst in the majors. How’sever, lots of great hitters have Chase Rates on the other side of 40%. This must be a concerted effort to be aggressive by Mountcastle, because it’s working for him. Ideally, he’s going to strikeout a little less (23-21% range), hit for a .280 average and keep his newfound power. The new Launch Angle (16.3) doesn’t hurt and his home park is the place for it. Will the Baltimore Baseball Club’s Mountcastle be able to solve his contact issues or will he turn out to be the real contract killer? We know what Mary J. Blige thinks, and I agree.

Also, the Orioles announced they are transforming Camden Yards this offseason into Camden Miles to cut down on offense. Lowercase yay! Incoming Jordan Lyles 2022 Cy Young year! To read the Camden Yards’ field dimensions becoming more pitcher-friendly in the most cynical way possible (hence correctamundo), the O’s want less offense so they don’t have to pay their hitters, and they’ll never have to pay the crap pitchers they have. Usually stadium changes do nothing to a player, and I still massively believe in Mountcastle, but now he might be more of a mystery, then a mystery solver. From when I released my rankings on Patreon about a month ago and now, I did take five homers off Mountcastle’s line just to play it safe. 2022 Projections: 82/30/90/.268/6 in 577 ABs

10. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Ya know what’s weird about Lou-Gu-Ju? That he’s not actually a Pokemon character with that name? Good guess, but no. What’s weird is I loved him going into last year, and now I can’t even figure out why. 2020 really was a nightmare for so many reasons, and about 1,000,000th on that list is that it made some baseball players appear better than they were. Now for the very weird thing, I still like him! Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me a third time, and you must be Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Maybe he’s just streaky, like his daddy Yuli’s hair, but he was the 2nd best hitter over the final 250 plate appearances, behind only Kyle Schwarber. That’s roughly the last half of the season. Lou-Gu-Ju was the best hitter over the last 100 plate appearances. That’s not the best Gurriel. That’s the best best. His September was 7/.301; his 2nd half was 11/.296 in 206 ABs. His strikeouts fell again (18.9%) and my theory is he just needs to pull the ball more. The Jays’ lineup will be great, and–Welp, I like him again.  2022 Projections: 84/27/92/.281/3 in 541 ABs

11. Kris Bryant – Signed with the Rockies to be a part of their rebuild. I’m joking! The Rockies are the dumbest organization. I know they play in Coors, but do the Rockies also have to act drunk? The Rockies’ rebuild is just running around in circles for decades. Rockies’ owner Dick Monfort, “Can’t believe we’ve got Kris Bryant locked up until he’s 37. We are so smart,” as Monfort pushes on a door that says pull. A no-trade, seven-year deal to a 30-year-old Kris Bryant is honestly one of the funniest things I’ve heard in a while. Thank you, Rockies. So, this is great for Kris Bryant, obviously. He might just hit .300 with 30 homers. This is the anti-Winker as far as fantasy value goes. Going to be conservative, but I’ve moved Bryant up a whole tier, and upped his projections. 2022 Projections: 86/28/79/.283/8 in 501 ABs

12. Kyle Schwarber – This is a new tier. This tier goes until Grandal. I call this tier, “Mickey Rooney cringe.” There’s a joy — a familiarity to old movies. Let’s have a conversation about The Conversation, because that Hackman is no hack, man. Then, four movies in on a Saturday, and Breakfast at Tiffany’s comes on and Mickey Rooney is doing some bad Asian stereotype and you’re like, “Maybe it’s time we went out for a bite to eat.” That’s this tier. You might find some comfort in these guys, as they are familiar, but Joey Votto starts hitting .240 for two months with no power, and you’re like when did I draft Mickey Rooney doing cringe? As for Schwarber, signed with the Phils, because he spent a weekend in Vegas, when he was young, and ran into Bryce Harper in the Circus, Circus parking lot, asking everyone that walked in, “Is that a clown casino, bro?” Schwarber is about the same no matter the landing spot, but Citizens should welcome him, assuming his paperwork is in order. 2022 Projections: 72/30/80/.248/1 in 445 ABs

13. Joey Votto – Truly believe I could write about 5,000 words on Votto. He’s a baseball onion. So, many layers to peel away, and, by the time you get to the player layer reading, “He can hit homers or for average at will. It’s up to him. So why is he hitting .220 with no power for the last six weeks,” and you’re crying. Wait, I just realized something, a Joey onion? That sounds like the Outback Steakhouse’s working name for the Blooming Onion. “Batter up!” That’s what they scream before the Joey onion is dunked in oil. That he hit his career high for homers at the age of 37, while becoming a .260 hitter with a skyrocketing strikeout rate, is just another layer. I’m crying in the club, and the club is a Russian Onion House, where they just peel onions. So, what to make of Votto? Highest ISO, easily, and highest K%, easily, and now he’s gonna be 38 years old. That’s not really a normal career path. And, I’m sorry, but I don’t buy into the stale narrative that Votto can hit for average or power, it’s up to him. He hit 15 homers and .261 in 2019, was that just him not trying? The 12 homers in 2018? Just having a goof? So many layers! 2022 Projections: 71/26/84/.257/1 in 512 ABs

14. Rhys Hoskins – Comfortable, old movie, super predictable guy with that Mickey Rooney cringe when Hoskins pops out to center 4,000 times, while hitting .220. Do think there’s a 10% chance here that he hits 45 homers and sneaks into a .250 average. 2022 Projections: 77/32/88/.241/3 in 556 ABs

15. J.T. Realmuto – Already went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2022 fantasy baseball.

16. Yasmani Grandal – Already went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2022 fantasy baseball.

17. Trey Mancini – This is a new tier. This tier goes until Torkelson. I call this tier, “Time Magazine Listing ‘Damn Daniel’ in 2016 as one of its most influential people.” That’s not a joke, though, I wish it were:

If you can’t read that, you can click it. The image says, “In 2016, Time magazine listed (Damn Daniel) as one of ‘The 30 Most Influential People.'” Damn Daniel! wasn’t even influential for a full week, let alone a year. No one was like, “Ya know, I considered a career in medicine, but I’ve decided to go into yelling, ‘Damn Daniel’ at strangers because of Damn Daniel!’s influence.” Who is Damn Daniel! influencing? Did it influence literally one person to do anything ever? It’s not even clear who is the person who is being influential. Is it Daniel? Unlikely, because he was just on the video being damned. So Joshua Holz is one of 30 people voted most influential in 2016? Okay, Time Magazine, if you say so. So, this tier is all guys who I’m excited about right now, like I’m Time Magazine in 2016, and my excitement may be fleeting, and we may look back in five years and be like, “Damn, Daniel!”

As for Trey Damancini, the “idea of him” turned out to be better than his previous year’s stats: 77/21/71/.255/0 in 556 ABs. There was a lot of talk about him, due to his cancer recovery, and, Damn Daniel! to that, because eff cancer, but digging deeper and he had 25 “expected” homers; his home park was great; he doesn’t strike out at all, and his 2nd half power (5 HRs) really is bringing down the overall. That wasn’t a problem in 2019 (i.e., it’s not a pattern), so I’m thinking Mancini was just tiring in the 2nd half last year as his first year back from cancer. Might be a Damn Daniel in hindsight, but I think Mancini can be even better 2022, another year removed from his recovery. Also, I go over Trey Mancini in the video at the top of the page. Also also, I lowered his power a tad after hearing about Camden Miles. 2022 Projections: 75/25/88/.271 in 580 ABs

18. Josh Bell – If you take away the Damn Daniel name from this tier, you have left: Guys who will hit 25-30/.260-.270 with no speed. Damn Daniel! 2022 Projections: 72/29/84/.263 in 531 ABs

19. Anthony Rizzo – Signed with the Yanks. A lot of people confusing lineup strength with being a good thing for fantasy. So, I will clarify here, as I have a few dozen times before, and will again after this. Volume is more important than lineup strength, and park is most important. Yankee Stadium is great, but their lineup is rich with options, which is not good. He’ll be rested for anything and everything, and, if Rizzo struggles for a second, he’ll be platooned. If he were in a good park with no options, like say Coors, then he’d move up the rankings. I’ve moved him down a little bit. 2022 Projections: 72/25/79/.246/4 in 476 ABs

20. Jake Cronenworth – So, this Damn Daniel isn’t 25-30/.260-.270 with no speed. Well, maybe he’d be a Damn Daniel if he only faced righties. Splits: 4/.270 vs. lefties and 17/.265 vs. righties. Not bizarre, as he hits lefty. Kinda interested in seeing where he hits in the Padres’ lineup. As most of you know, what a lineup will be on Opening Day is a guessing game well past Opening Day. This is also why I think anyone making much of Spring Training lineups is wasting their time. A guy could hit leadoff in the spring just because they want to get him at-bats vs. a certain pitcher. Spring Training lineups mean almost as much as Opening Day lineups. A guy could hit third on Opening Day and be hitting 8th on Day 2. With all that said, it’s important with Cronenworth since he could hit third.  2022 Projections: 79/22/71/.277/5 in 564 ABs

21. Alex Kirilloff – Already gave you my Alex Kirilloff sleeper. It was written while watching Yellowjackets and asking, “Isn’t this just Lord of the Flies?” 2022 Projections: 76/27/83/.271/4 in 534 ABs

22. Andrew Vaughn – Already gave you my Andrew Vaughn fantasy. It was written while riding a Bird scooter as a passersby called me a nerd. 2022 Projections: 67/26/73/.263/1 in 461 ABs

23. Ty France – Standing at attention, saluting the red, white and blue, but there’s no stars and stripes here. I’m wearing a beret and the only country I know is the country pâté I’m smearing onto a baguette. “God Bless France,” I sing as I’m dragged out of a MLB stadium, screaming, “Viva la Ty!” So, France, and his glorious thickened-with-butter sauces is yet another Damn Daniel like Cronenworth, and less a mid-20-homer power and roughly .290–Tut-tut-tut, nothing in France is done roughly. 2022 Projections: 87/22/80/.294 in 591 ABs

24. DJ LeMahieu – I’m beginning to think I was dumped at my prom in a former life and the deejay made fun of me, because I hate DJ. This is the worst ranking you’re ever gonna find for him. Brucely, if I were Aaron Boone, I’d bench LeMahieu, or rotate him around the field. He wouldn’t be a starter for me. He went 10/4/.268 last year, and in an aging body that never had real power, I don’t really see how he’s much more than a play for runs and maybe a little bit of a bounce back on average. Not dramatically, mind you, because he’s aging and he can’t catch up to fastballs like he once did. 2022 Projections: 92/15/58/.276/5 in 594 ABs

25. Spencer Torkelson – Already gave you my Spencer Torkelson fantasy. It was written inside a snow globe. UPDATE: Made the team out of camp. Woo hoo! 2022 Projections: 71/28/79/.253/2 in 506 ABs

26. Yuli Gurriel – This is a new tier. This tier goes until Belt. I call this tier, “Upside is a city in Italy, and pronounced You-pee-saddy.” Not You-pee-sadly, that’s up the coast, and a retirement village for old men. I don’t mind this tier in deeper leagues, but, in shallower leagues, you’re gonna be looking elsewhere in April for a guy with upside and not the Italian city. As for Yuli, really tried to squeeze Yuli into the Mickey Rooney tier for obvious reasons — Yuli seemed to be auditioning for a Breakfast at Tiffany’s remake a few years back — alas, Yuli and LeMahieu seem destined to be within a dollar of each other in fantasy value. Actually, wish I could make a prop bet somewhere that Yuli and LeMahieu will be within a dollar of each other on the Player Rater at the end of the year. So, I might be discounting Yuli here a little, but he’s also so freakin’ boring. 2022 Projections: 77/15/85/.281/3 in 513 ABs

27. C.J. Cron – Some of you might find yourself thinking, “What’s the difference between a You-pee-saddy and a Damn Daniel?” And if you do find yourself asking that, I am so sorry. Please forgive me for polluting your brain like Michelle Pfeiffer’s womb in Scarface. By the way, you think Greta Thurnberg ever watched Scarface and was like, “Big business polluted Michelle Pfeiffer’s womb!” Prolly not. Any hoo! The difference is the Damn Daniels might be a flash in the pan, but at least they have some flash, You-pee-saddy’s are just kinda saddy. If you want to look at the Damn Daniels and You-pee-saddy’s as one big tier, I wouldn’t fault you. Remember, tiers mean they’re all interchangeable. I.e., Cron instead of Torkelson, for unstints. As for Cron, I have nothing to say, you know him. I will say that it made me chuckle that the Rockies re-signed him eight hours into the offseason like, “No, please, don’t let us lose C.J. Cron!” 2022 Projections: 69/27/79/.264/1 in 492 ABs

28. Eduardo Escobar – I might just start calling all 27-ish/.260-ish hitters “Damn Daniels” as I take a terrible joke and Uma-Oprah it into oblivion. As for Eduardo Escobar, here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Mets. There’s complicated reasons behind Eduardo Escobar signing with the Mets. Not for the Mets or their fans, but so I don’t ever write another J.D. Davis sleeper. The fantasy baseball community sent me a cease and desist, but it was ignored by me. How does that saying go, ‘First, they came for my J.D. Davis sleeper, and I said nothing?’ Maybe that’s not how it goes, who’s to say?” And that’s me quoting me! 2022 Projections: 62/25/72/.252/1 in 511 ABs

29. Jonathan Schoop – Exciting news to announce! Schoop has hit .278 for two straight seasons. If he hits .278 again, he gets to have sex with Khris Davis’s wife. 2022 Projections: 77/25/83/.278/1 in 597 ABs

30. Brandon Belt – Something’s gotta give with Belt, said the man to the tailor. His Launch Angle became comically high last year as he tapped into newfound power that he never once saw before in his career, which wouldn’t be much of anything for a 24-year-old but this Belt’s turning 34 years old this year, which sounds like me explaining to Cougs why I can’t throw away a belt in my closet. If Belt continues this newfound approach, then he could hit 34 homers, but he might also struggle to hit .230 without some luck. I sorta split the difference in my projections, because I’m not sure which way he’s going to go. A classic hedge! 2022 Projections: 71/24/81/.254/3 in 507 ABs

31. Tyler Stephenson – This is a new tier. This tier goes until Lowe. I call this tier, “Feeling pretty good about things until you realize you’re pantsless.” This tier is filled with guys who you convince yourself aren’t such a bad draft pick late for your corner slot, then you get to June and you’re in 12th place and you’re like, “Do you think my corner spot is an issue? I’ve been rotating between Schwindel and Wisdom, calling it my Schwisdel.” Look down, prematurely balding man, you didn’t realize it, but you’re pantsless. For what it’s worth, Stephenson is fine at catcher, but I wouldn’t want him at corner, or, God forbid, 1st base. As for Stephenson, already went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2022 fantasy baseball.

32. Max Muncy – I love me some Max Muncy. I’m the Max Municiest! But I couldn’t figure out how to rank him any higher than this. That might mean I don’t end up drafting Muncy anywhere. Like a plumber, this bums me out. I might be prematurely jumping the gun by lowering Muncy, since he’s never done anything but hit homers while looking like a tree stump, which is awesome. It’s just he has a torn UCL, and, as early as November, the Dodgers were saying he’s not recovering as quickly as hoped. Dodgers’ 1st baseman and injuries? Sorry, I’m way to scarred by Cody Belanger. That’s not to say if Muncy is available here, I’m not in, because I could see the IL flyer, but realistically, this is a pretty low ranking for him, which I guess is fitting for a tree stump. Also, I go over Max Muncy in the video at the top of the page. 2022 Projections: 53/20/56/.247/2 in 307 ABs

33. Frank Schwindel – Ya know what Schwindel’s got written all over him? A guy who is touted by people who think they’re smart. The big-brained love to see a guy like Schwindel and his 14/2/.326 line in only 242 ABs — or 30/2/.320 between Triple-A and MLB — like they discovered something. Y’all ain’t the Magellans of Schwindel. The Schwgellans, so to speak. For you to think the Cubs were Schwgellans of a soon-to-be 30-year-old, it means you have to believe no one, in nine years of pro ball, picked up on the fact Schwindel might secretly be good. Dayton Moore just randomly released Schwindel a few years ago. Not like the Royals ever wanted a cheap superstar. Billy Beane, a guy who might know how to get cheap players, just randomly gave away Schwindel. Cubs just happened to start him because they unloaded Rizzo, and, what do you know, he hit six homers in seven games and that’s making his entire MLB line look better than it is.  2022 Projections: 64/25/71/.256/2 in 571 ABs

34. Patrick Wisdom – Same deal as Schwindel, but the Cards and Rangers were the ones without the Wisdom to hold Patrick, which is a little more believable, but Wisdom’s also a year older. The Cubs’ lineup has a lot of, “Hey, what do you know, this guy who no one wanted for ten years is really good” vibes. Every Cubs player is going to be played by Kevin Costner in nine different wigs. Really looking forward to Kevin Costner as Rafael Ortega. 2022 Projections: 58/28/72/.212/3 in 561 ABs

35. Bobby Dalbec – Speaking of guys who appear to casuals as a potential breakout and has reams of red flags under the hood. If handled correctly, Bobby D. could have great daily lineup platoon value, but if you start him vs. righties, you may as well tell your leaguemates that this year is a rebuilding year. 2022 Projections: 44/21/56/.239/1 in 362 ABs

36. Luke Voit – Actually, a terrific example of why you might not want to trust the Schwgellans or Schwisdomgellans, for that matter. Everyone was like, “Wow, the Yanks saw something great in Voit that no one else did.” No, they didn’t. Voit was just good for a few months, then got exploited — ExVoited? That’s gonna be Wisdom and Schwindel’s career paths too. As it kinda will be with everyone in this tier. Pantsless and exploited. UPDATE: Traded to the Padres. Or if any nerds are reading, “Luke, I am your Padre.” Crazy that the Yankees aka The Evil Empire ended up sending Luke to his Padre. Poetic even. Or maybe I don’t know what poetic is. That latter theory feels more accurate. You might’ve heard this trade from the Padres fans screaming, “Please say Hosmer is going the other way!” Nope, he didn’t but he was lowered in my rankings, and Luke Voit was raised, and I drafted him almost immediately after the news, so cha and ching. 2022 Projections: 52/22/56/.248 in 441 ABs

37. Miguel Sano – His exit velocities should be taught at the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston to show how hard contact is nice, but it doesn’t beat “actually making contact.” 2022 Projections: 61/32/72/.209/1 in 492 ABs

38. Nate Lowe – Just thought of something — this tier is “pantsless,” and the only time these guys will be worth rostering is when they’re streaking. *blows on knuckles, wipes knuckles on shirt, realizes knuckles had ketchup on them and I’ve stained my shirt* Ugh! To reiterate, because my biggest fear is someone reading only one of these blurbs and being like, “You said you’d never roster Lowe, but he’s on your team.” These guys are fine if A) Hitting currently. B) You’re in a deep league. C) There’s no C. D) In your utility spot, I guess. I don’t hate these guys with venom spewing out of my fangs like Count Dontdraftula, but in shallower leagues, you better have your 1B or corner man already. As for Lowe, he’s super yawnstipating. 18-homer power, .255 average, five steals. That kinda guy is death in shallower leagues, and pretty welcome in deeper leagues if he’s seeing everyday at-bats, which he should be. If he had more power, I would’ve squeezed him in an above tier, but couldn’t do it. Damn Nathaniel! He is not. 2022 Projections: 73/17/77/.260/5 in 548 ABs

39. Jesus Aguilar – This is a new tier. This tier goes until Dozier. I call this tier, “No Tier For Old Men.” This tier is self-explanatory. The thing about this tier is you likely found Votto in their tier last year, i.e., any of these guys could have one last Zombino season. As for Aguilar, I doubt he’s the Zombino in the group, but I’m also bias towards Lewin Diaz playing — I’m Lewin Bias. Don’t say that in Boston, it produces tears, brah. Though, if the NL gets the DH, Aguilar could be the biggest benefactor, which is the kinda thing one says in March, then by June, Aguilar has 75-ish ABs, and is battling knee problems, and no amount of DH’ing is helping. 2022 Projections: 61/21/65/.264 in 431 ABs

40. Christian WalkerHunter Dozier and Christian Walker are forever tied in the rankings, and, with that said, can’t one of them be good so the other one is good too? 2022 Projections: 61/20/74/.241/1 in 474 ABs

41. Hunter Dozier – You think I’m having a goof with Walker and Dozier being the Abbott and Costello of Who’s on First In The Rankings, but even their Launch Angles are: 15.8 and 15.6. *Sitcom theme music* “Dozier and Walker…Separated at birth! One drives in the occasional Diamondback; one drives in a Subaru Outback…” 2022 Projections: 58/20/65/.235/5 in 466 ABs

42. Rowdy Tellez – This is a new tier. This tier goes until McCann. I call this tier, “The hitter versions of Michael Pineda.” Ooh, their peripherals are so good! These guys are gonna be so good! Yeah, maybe, but you also better have a contingency plan. As for Rowdy, if he gets a full season of at-bats, and sees 650 plate appearances, oh, boy, he’s gonna be so good! What’s that, how many at-bats will he get? Um, maybe 300? Oh, wait, he’s going to have DH at-bats! But the Brewers also have Damn Daniel Vogelbach and Brosseau Whoa, Renfroe, Jace, Narvaez, Keston Hiura, hey, do the Brewers have any non-DH types? 2022 Projections: 48/16/51/.251 in 345 ABs

43. Gavin Sheets – He’s the one friend you never ask to help you move, so you can avoid saying, “Sheets? The bed.” Can’t picture Sheets giving more than 400 ABs, but 400 ABs for him could mean 25+ homers. He has solid contact too, so not sure that he kills you in average. He also feels like a Pineda-sized pitfall where you’re thinking about Sheets, then you have a hole in your lineup every time Lol Russa randomly benches him. Also, for me to get in bed with Sheets means I need to discount Vaughn, I don’t want to do that. 2022 Projections: 47/20/56/.254/1 in 377 ABs

44. Triston Casas – Already gave you my Triston Casas fantasy. It was written while big wave surfing in Nazaré, Portugal. 2022 Projections: 41/16/48/.267/1 in 303 ABs

45. Bobby Bradley – True story alert! I looked through my sleeper posts to see if I wrote one for the Swag King Bobby Bradley. Was surprised I hadn’t. My guess is I was likely worried he would hit .190, because I’m looking at his stats, and that’s exactly what I’m thinking. Might hit 30 clapbackbackbackbacks and .175. 2022 Projections: 53/25/59/.206 in 404 ABs

46. Dominic Smith – By the nature of him going from a top 100 overall pick last year (for some people, I called him a schmohawk and told everyone to avoid him), makes me want to get back in on him at his new draft price of, like, 400-something. He’s only 26 years old, had a 22.7% strikeout rate, and was just done in by a terrible HR/FB%. I’m falling for a hitter version of Michael Pineda, aren’t I? 2022 Projections: 42/14/41/.266/1 in 338 ABs

47. Eric Hosmer – There’s at least a 20% chance that if Hosmer gets 500+ at-bats again this year for the Padres, one of their fans might murder someone. UPDATE: With Voit, Hosmer is crowded out of an everyday job, to the delight of Padres fans. 2022 Projections: 44/12/41/.263/3 in 331  ABs

48. LaMonte Wade Jr. – There’s so many terrible Giants’ hitters that I needed to consider in my rankings, because they had such a ridiculously improbable run last year. Here was me trying to rank Giants’ 1st basemen, “Hey, how about Wilmer Flores? Yeah, yeah, him and Darin Ruf…Oh, and LaMonte–Oh, and Belt!” The Giants somehow played with five terrible 1st basemen last year. Did the Giants play some kind of five-1st-basemen shift? Remember in Inception when all the people were falling in that box? That was the Giants’ infield, but, instead of a box, it was the infield, and all infielders fell to 1st base. The Giants played an Inception-esque shift last year. It happened and you missed it. UPDATE: Injured, will start year on the IL. 2022 Projections: 46/15/54/.247/6 in 391 ABs

49. Wilmer Flores – *spinning a top to know I’m not dreaming* Inception! No offense (literally), but Wilmer’s top highlight previously was crying on the field because he thought he was traded from the Mets. In retrospect, Wilmer was shedding tears of joy, right? 2022 Projections: 51/16/55/.271/1 in 378 ABs

50. James McCann – Already went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2022 fantasy baseball.

51. Carlos Santana – This is a new tier. This tier goes until Hiura. I call this tier, “I’m begging…” The tier name will become obvious in a second. As for Carlos Santana, I’m begging the Royals to promote Nick Pratto. 2022 Projections: 51/17/56/.210/1 in 403 ABs

52. Miguel Cabrera – I’m begging Miggy to retire. 2022 Projections: 44/14/53/.252 in 434 ABs

53. Connor Joe – Finally, a guy “we don’t know where he came from or where he plans on going.” Connor Eyed Joe, you truly are an enigma. Joe is currently penciled typed into Roster Resource as the Rockies’ leadoff guy. Remember in Meet Joe Black, in one of the most unintentionally hilarious scenes ever, Brad Pitt is hit by a car and he bounces from car to car? Okay, well, that but a Meet Joe/Black scenario where Bud Black, a person who acts like they’ve been hit on the head multiple times, could actually pull off the insane move of starting Joe at leadoff for 550 ABs. If that happens, it’ll be better for Joe than Black and much better than Meet Joe Black. UPDATE: Kris Bryant clouds The Joe. 2022 Projections: 48/12/41/.289/2 in 300 ABs

54. Mike Moustakas – When things were good for Mike, we called him Moistasskiss, but now that ass has dried up and Mostsuckass is the most suckiest of asses. I’d guess he gets a bunch of DH at-bats and they’ll be some of the worst you’ve ever seen, and maybe Senzel, Aquino, Shogo, or literally anyone else can replace him. Or I’m simply begging Moistasskiss to stop being Mostsuckass. 2022 Projections: 41/16/47/.211/1 in 323 ABs

55. Yandy Diaz – I’m begging someone to poke Yandy in the ribs right as he swings, so he swings with more of an uppercut. 2022 Projections: 51/10/56/.267/1 in 445 ABs

56. Keston Hiura – I’m begging the Astros to trade for Keston, so I can see if he can hit .200 if he knows what pitch is coming. 2022 Projections: 33/14/37/.193/5 in 278 ABs

57. Yoshi Tsutsugo – This is a new tier. This tier goes until the end of the rankings. I call this tier, “At least you have your health.” By the tier name, I mean, hey, at least you’re here with us, even if your 1st baseman sucks. As for Yoshi, Pirates DFA’d Colin Moran to go with Yoshi who was DFA’d by two clubs last year. “The more DFAs the better, right?” That’s the Pirates’ front office. 2022 Projections: 47/16/53/.211 in 465 ABs

58. Pavin Smith – Here’s how it went with Pavin Smith: I looked at his 11 HRs, and 1 steal statline from last year, then I looked at his at-bats, expecting maybe 250, and it was 498 ABs and I spit a mouthful of boba on my computer screen, then took my boba straw and sucked them back into my mouth. 2022 Projections: 54/10/57/.271/1 in 421 ABs

59. Garrett Cooper – To compare and contrast two randos for no reason, Colin Moran gets DFA’d and he had better projections than Cooper, and Cooper, well, he’s still on the Marlins as…of…this…writing. I tried to stall, is he still on the Marlins? He is? Wow. 2022 Projections: 38/13/41/.280/1 in 278 ABs

60. Lewin Diaz – It’s disappointing but not surprising that Lewin Diaz is 25 years old and still yet to get a legit run at a 1st base job. Guess the Marlins don’t want a 70-homer, .165 hitter. Well, boo you, man, boo freakin’ you! In all seriousness, Aguilar has knee issues, so Diaz could sneak into a job for 400+ ABs and hit 30 homers (and .154). Quite honestly, his IFFB% makes me chuckle. His Launch Angle is: Imagine a golfer.  2022 Projections: 27/12/36/.181/1 in 217 ABs

61. Luis Torrens – Already went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2022 fantasy baseball.

62. Andy Ibanez – Dating back to 2017, every mention of Andy Ibanez on Razzball was like, “Utility guy who should be traded for a middle reliever, because the Rangers have Odor.” Only guy who should be buried behind Odor is Pigpen. Boom roasted! Ibanez is Cuban, and to do the lame thing of comparing one Cuban to another, Ibanez makes contact so best case scenario is Yuli Gurriel-esque, and worst case scenario is Fredo in Cuba. UPDATE: What are the Rangers doing? Someone SOS to them they need a 3rd baseman. UPDATE II: Brad Miller kills Ibanez’s value, and sorta his own. 2022 Projections: 41/11/43/.279/2 in 378 ABs

62. Jace Peterson – The Razzball glossary defines a futility man as a player that can play all around the field while being pee-poor. Jace Peterson has four positions he’s eligible at and is 28/50/.238 in his career. That’s in just under 2,000 plate appearances. 2022 Projections: 34/5/28/.251/11 in 276 ABs

63. Darin Ruf – I said in the top 20 catchers for 2022 fantasy baseball about Eric Haase, that every year there’s guys that come out of nowhere, and have a great year, then disappear just as quickly. Last year the Giants were a whole team of them. 2022 Projections: 33/11/37/.251/1 in 251 ABs

64. Jurickson Profar – Sometimes a guy will get 180-something at-bats and go 7/7/.280 (numbers pulled from nowhere, while also being exactly what Profar did one year), and it will send people into a panic, which is an abbreviation of a ‘panting-manic.’ “Can you imagine what Profar can do over 140 games? Can you imagine?!” You scream at the heavens, then Profar gets 140 games and goes 4/10/.227. 2022 Projections: 37/6/36/.247/8 in 302 ABs

Omitted but considered: Brad Miller (FREE AGENT), Josh Naylor, Josh Fuentes, Evan White, Willians Astudillo, Ryan O’Hearn, Jose Marmelejos, Yu Chang, Phil Gosselin, Ji-Man Choi, Edwin Rios, Juan Yepez, Renato Nunez, Matt Thaiss, Travis Future MVP Shaw (FREE AGENT), Michael Chavis, Mike Brosseau, Harold Castro, Aledmys Diaz, Matt Beaty, Phillip Evans, Dannys Antana (FREE AGENT), Colin Moran

58 Comments
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gforce46
gforce46
7 months ago

Nick Protto getting playing time this year likely where would you put him on this list? Or have I missed something. Cheers for all your good work

gforce46
gforce46
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Thanks for the link
Awesome. Thanks for quick reply. My Minor draft today. One of MJ Melendez, Yorke, or Pratto. How would you rank them 1-2-3. Cheers.

Powdered Toast Man
Powdered Toast Man
8 months ago

AL Only had to run Christian Vazquez out to 1b for the majority of the season. Hoping to avoid that this year. Is that a begging tier or even lower?

For An Armenianless Vacation Come to Akron
For An Armenianless Vacation Come to Akron
Reply to  Powdered Toast Man
8 months ago

i had done that sometimes about 2 years ago too, but it wasn’t intentionally and not for very long. well 1B or CI.

Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo
Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo
8 months ago

everybody (me too, esp with bullpens, about to have to bid on guys in deep spot shortly) needs to be very wary (good band name there) in trusting rosterresource before season even if that is the best depth charts site. i don’t know when you wrote this (probably not like last night) but c.joe’s already at 6th now (but LF starter, which is hilarious to just believe in even during season with b.black, hilliard is also supposedly all set to play all the time against righties, hehe)

Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo
Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo
Reply to  Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo
8 months ago

i mean you could take a random 2 week part of IN season and find that arenado’s cousin is starting for 10 straight days but not much after for the next 6 weeks, hilliard plays 6 str days, then off 5 of the next 7 (even if 6/7 were righties), he’s a complete joke. oh look hampson’s leading off again (says some random dude about to be shit on entirely weekly lineup setting type league) on a monday but never again rest of week (and benched 3/6 of those). just tons of these with black.

Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo
Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo
Reply to  Grey
8 months ago

DFA to PIT, clearly they were told that translates to “did F’ing awesome”

Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo
Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo
Reply to  Grey
8 months ago

yeah it’s simple, hoard the guys that did F’ing awesome, seems like a good way to be. like somebody who doesn’t even follow a sport’s first day of playing fantasy and he’s drafting, “just give me the guys that’ll “do f’ing awesome”.

it’s quite nice that t.shaw still has the MVP tag (given by you and…. cough cough assorted others cough)

Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo
Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo
Reply to  Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo
8 months ago

sorry, that’s “assorted possible others” (not that anybody can remember any)

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
8 months ago

I agree with you that Ty France isn’t that exciting of a player but I think you’re missing out on some sneaky value here. It’s the same as with Cronenworth. Neither have great power or great speed. But both play on teams that should be strong offensively. I think there’s some solid potential for extra category juice based on their lineup position, past batting averages and their teammates consistently being on base or knocking them in. I could see 10-20 more runs and 15 more RBIs for each of them, especially Cronenworth, but I like the position France is in even more so if Julio Rodriguez gets called up by May.

Last edited 8 months ago by Harley Earl
Sport
Sport
8 months ago

Been enjoying Patreon rankings! And the first base as well. I was mildly surprised to see how many guys got a handful of games at 1B last year and are eligible. With guys like Eloy and Albombso possibly available I may not pick my first SP at 40-45 and just might wait!

In my 14 team dynasty that starts 5 OF, I have Castellanos, S.Marte, LouRob, Schwarber, and Verdugo. I kept Blackmon for depth, but would you drop him for Kwan? Blackmon maybe has a little more ceiling for power in Colorado, but is it enough?

Coolwhip
8 months ago

More good news for Jared Walsh, last year was basically just him and Ohtani providing all the offense with a bunch of AAA players. Imagine if everyone plays there career average of games!?

Coolwhip
Reply to  Grey
8 months ago

LOL you’re not wrong

I am the Walrus
I am the Walrus
8 months ago

No love for McMahon and Bellinger? They still have 1B eligibility right?

frey
frey
8 months ago

I, too, hate that weak-kneed shizz.

bigbear
bigbear
8 months ago

Au Shizz… I’m sketched due to rising pull rates, slowing sprint speed, K% and BB% regressing. Father Time is knocking. I’m lowering him between Walsh and Mounty.

After Mounty, yikes! Only 3 that I’m interested in: Mancini, Tork, and Belt.

Yes Belt… Maybe its recency bias or Stockholm syndrome (since I was stuck with him after the Belanger debacle). Yes, his top line stats and underlying stats have gaps. Especially the low EV and spike in FB%. But his bat-to-ball skills are legit. Honestly think it’s about his approach to hitting. Either way, here’s to Gene sprinkling his pixie dust in SF again in 2022!

Speaking of Belanger, is he 1B eligible? Or a legit snub?

Lurve the Travis Shaw shoutout in the dishonorable mentions!

bigbear
bigbear
Reply to  Grey
8 months ago

Way too few! 1B/3B are supposed to be the clubbers! #make1Bgreatagain

You have Bellinger right. My assumption made an ass out of me.

Chicitysox23
Chicitysox23
8 months ago

Love this. Have 3 of the top 4 locked into my dynasty roster.
Vlad @ $7 this season, Olson @ $18 this season, and Albomso @$3 for the next 3 seasons.

Now just make sure this season happens!

Schoolboy P
Schoolboy P
8 months ago

Good stuff. Im going back in on Lourdes as well. Can I get your opinion on my teams weaknesses to try to fill in draft day.

Here are my keepers:
Goldschmidt
India
Mondesi
Semien
Oniell Cruz
Alonso
Stanton
Jesus Sanchez
[julio Rodrigues, Riley Greene, Vidal brujan]

Thanks!

Schoolboy P
Schoolboy P
Reply to  Grey
8 months ago

13 teams. My infield is full and Stanton and Sanchez are going to take up 2/5 OF spots. Then will have 2 UTIL to fill. Agree on AVG.

Norman Ginsberg
Norman Ginsberg
8 months ago

I see how you’ve put in an incredible amount of time for these ratings/writeups. Greatly appreciated. I do have two questions.
A. Will your “Top 500” ratings ultimately be available in an Excel format (similar to the Streamer set)?

B. There are positional differences from Streamer (e.g., Bryant and Riley doe not indicate 1B eligibility). Is this intentional to address leagues with different eligibility requirements?

Norman Ginsberg
Norman Ginsberg
Reply to  Grey
8 months ago

Here’s what I see in the 2022 Pre-season Player Rating ($ Action) file for Austin Riley.

1 Austin Riley ATL 3B 3B 19.4 14.4 1.4 621 3.8 5.6 7.0 -2.5 4.5

1Austin RileyATL3B3B19.414.41.46213.85.67.0-2.54.5

Old School Brother
Old School Brother
8 months ago

I’m hot ’cause I’m fly (Fly!), you ain’t ’cause you not (Mims!)
This is why, this is why, this is why I’m hot (Hot!)

Mims drafts starters in the first round

Fungazi 2.0
Fungazi 2.0
Reply to  Old School Brother
8 months ago

Yup, gonna have that stuck in my head all day also. Thanks Grey. This is why I’m hot, this is why I’m hot

captain obvious
captain obvious
Reply to  Old School Brother
8 months ago

Such a crappy song.

NUX
NUX
9 months ago

You sleepin on my boy Yoshi too it seems. 30 Homers from him in 2022. And by the end of the Spring (hopefully not Summer) Training that won’t even look like a bold call!

captain obvious
captain obvious
Reply to  NUX
8 months ago

Reminds me of the guy on the Brewers. I’m not Hiushu or whatever.

Hoops M
Hoops M
Reply to  Grey
8 months ago

Nice dig on Keston. (Could he hit .200 if he knew which pitch is coming?)

I remembered when he had a 60 hit tool in the MLB prospect rankings, so I looked it up, and it was a 70 hit tool (in 2018). He even hit .329 the first time through AAA. What the heck happened?

kentucky todd
kentucky todd
9 months ago

Catching up on the rankings and already getting antsy for next year – thinking back on 2020 and how brutal it was to wait, hoping we don’t have to go through anything near that long of a wait due to the lockout.

But based on your top 10 I’m guessing my trade of sending Betts for Luis Robert in a keep forever league was a no brainer! Glad I pulled the trigger