There’s likely a lot of factors that go into fantasy baseball prospects, but here’s two I look at:

1. Ready and it’s up to the club.

2. Not ready.

Frank Voila! That’s it! Well, maybe not it it, but it is close enough to it. That it is in the It Crowd. In the big broad, general sense. If the player is in the 2nd category, then I’m not going to cover them. It’s why we have Prospectors Itch and Hobbs. They’ll tell you the guys who will be ready, eventually. My job is to tell you the guys who are ready, then leave it up to the team on whether or not they’re going to promote them. Triston Casas aka The House of Triston, as he’s known to George RR Martin, is ready. Honestly, Triple-A is a way station, in general. If a guy is in Triple-A, he could be in the majors. There’s no more “learning” for Triple-A guys. Maybe some are just not good enough for the majors, so they sit in Triple-A for years, but even those guys are Quad-A guys, not Triple-A guys. See, there’s no such thing as Triple-A. You’ve been woke’d up. You’re welcome. This doesn’t mean the Red Sox will call up Triston Casas, just because he’s in Triple-A. But they could at any time. So, what can we expect from Triston Casas for 2022 fantasy baseball?

Psyche! Before we get to the rest of the post, just wanted to announce that we’re doing an NFBC league. Originally, we were talking about starting an NFBC Draft Champions league (slow draft, you don’t have to be at your computer) on Black Friday, but I forgot I had family in town for Thanksgiving, so I set the league up to draft starting the following Monday at noon EST. That’s the Monday after Thanksgiving (11/29). It is a slow draft league; you don’t need to be at your computer to draft. Yes, I said this already five sentences ago, so sue me! First person to sue gets Razzball, 2nd person gets Cougs, 3rd person to sue gets my car — it needs oil! The league will be the Draft Champions format, $150 to join, and you can win $1000, or $350 to place, or $150 to show — overall prize is $30,000, 2nd place is $7,500 etc. You can find the prizes at their site. The link for the league is here, NFBC LEAGUE. This 15-team league has no waivers and is Draft and Hold. This league already has quite a few people who have joined, because I opened it to our Patreon a few days ago. I’m going to start rolling out my rankings there soon too. Anyway, back to Triston Casas for 2022 fantasy baseball:

Think the Red Sox have realized that Bobby Dalbec is great, but vs. lefties. Enter the lefty slugger, Triston Casas. This year through two levels (Double and Triple-A), he went 14/7; .281/.396/.486 in 82 games. If I could circle with a marker one number, it’s .396. The 2nd number I’d circle is .281. The number I’d cross out is 7. The number I’d alter when you weren’t looking is the 14, because of the 70-grade raw power. The reason I circled the first two numbers is because the Red Sox love OBP and a 1st baseman that gets on base is a lot more attractive to them than Bobby D. Sorry, I like Dalbec a lot, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s traded soon, or is relegated to “only vs. lefties.” Showing a big, lumbering 1st baseman hit home runs is boring, so let’s show you a moon rocket triple:

Stay for the very end of the video when he just belly flops at third, and stands for a Tiger Woods fist pump. Rickey Henderson he is not.

So, about Triston Casas’s profile:  For years, Triston Casas is going to pound that Pesky Pole like he’s a Boston stripper. If he goes doink off the monster enough, he might hit .290+. If everything comes together for him, we’re talking about a guy who could go 40/.310 for many years. Casas sprays balls all over with an insane contact rate, all over the plate, mostly destroying anything high, middle-in, middle-out–Well, everywhere. If the ball is a strike, he can’t be beat. Our former podcaster Geoff, who knows prospects and the Red Sox, said Casas reminds him of Freddie Freeman. When Freeman first came up, he looked like a 27/.270 hitter, and now he’s 30/.300. Casas is getting a much earlier jump on things too, so he might not wait until he’s 30 before he becomes a .300 hitter.

Strong and doesn’t sell-out for power — a guy who covers the plate like Triston Casas does is very alluring. So, this brings us back to our original query, will the Red Sox start the year with Triston Casas? Eh oh–*coughs ferociously for 45 minutes* No. Teams play games. Literally and figuratively. Geoff thinks Casas could break camp with the Red Sox, but I’m pessimistic because the chances of a rookie, who just got to Triple-A, breaking camp is very rare. Could Casas be that rare one? Sure, but I’ not betting on the rare. For 2022, I’ll give Triston Casas projections of 41/16/48/.267/1 in 303 ABs with a chance for more.

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Milarky
Milarky
1 year ago

Hey Grey, thought I’d also ask for your thoughts after also asking Itch.

Our league has an interesting wrinkle where we draft three prospect every all-star break. Going into every year, we have to choose three prospects to keep, and each prospect can be protected twice after they were drafted as prospects. It means we’re often having to choose between some just drafted that year (likely hasn’t played in MLB yet) and others who have. The other interesting wrinkle is that we have to start a rookie hitter in a spot dedicated as such.

In my case, I have to choose three from the following list:

Jarred Kelenic
Alex Kirilloff
Marco Luciano
Corbin Carroll
Hunter Greene

My thinking was that Kelenic is a lock, and Kirilloff is a near lock as well, even though neither will be rookies – plus the other two hitters likely aren’t landing in 2022, but sexy upside. I usually am also less fired up to keep pitchers because they’re so volatile, but Greene could be big (eventually).

But anyway – if this were your team, which three would you keep and why?

Milarky
Milarky
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Thanks Grey! Are the other two just too far away to take a chance on in your opinion?

Stl Squat Cobblers
Stl Squat Cobblers
1 year ago

Squat Cobblers clicked thru the link Griz and paid for entry but it didn’t get us into the Razz league..is there a code or do I just ask the NFBC guys to get me in the Razz NFBC?

Thanks Grey!

Stl Squat Cobblers
Stl Squat Cobblers
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

No worries. Will definitely get in next time

Sport
Sport
1 year ago

Casas looks like a beast! I’m lucky enough to have in a couple of dynasties, but had been planning on pushing to get him in a OBP league. It’s going to be a fun spring trying to figure out who is going to break camp. So many to follow.

My daily question! This about closers, and apologize if it causes nightmares, but one would be the closer role in Cincinnati.

You think Sims is a possible target late? 4.40 ERA, but had a 3.00 fip and 14.6 K/9!

Also been considering Treinen and Camilo Doval. Offseason moves obviously could dictate the situation in LA, but Doval seems pretty logical, correct?

Thank you!

Will
Will
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Where do you think Raisel Iglesias ends up now that he turned down the QO from the Angels?

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
1 year ago

Grey!!!!

Awesome!

a. I have Casas in my MiLB ranking between Jung and Barrero. Am I wrong?

b. Norm MacDonald quote of the day for Wake for November 18, 2021

‘USAIR trying out some new campaign slogans to restore passenger confidence. I’ve got one – two words – ‘We’ve landed.’

c. Norm MacDonald quote of the day for November 18, 2021

‘Blimpies submarine sandwiches have been added to all Delta flights and in exchange, Delta has added barf bags to all Blimpies restaurants.’

d. Marx Brothers quote of the day for November 18, 2021

‘Why you always chasing women?’

Groucho: ‘I’ll tell you as soon as I catch one.’

From Copacobana (1947)

Cheers,
Ante

galica123
galica123
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Grey!!!

Ha!! Totally agreed. I used to laugh at Russians who clap when the plane successfully lands, you can tell who the Russians are on your flight. I say I used to laugh. Now I silently clap with them and sit in coach between the two pairs of wings, never in 1st class or on the tail of the plane.

Thought I’d give the quotes light and breezy today.

Cheers,
Ante

kcc26
kcc26
1 year ago

my apologies-this has nothing to do with Tristan Casas. having trouble valuing players with salaries taken into account for potential trades this offseason in my Ottoneu. i have several viable OF for 2022 but need some more INF. looking to add a star. I have salary cap space to work with. Does this offer seem reasonable (i’ve received)?

$44 jose ramirez and
$25 jose berrios

for my

$11 Cedric Mullins
$10 robbie ray

while i have some questions about mullins’ repeatability and want the infielder for the outfielder, i feel like the salary gap might be too much here. thoughts?

thanks!

bill
bill
Reply to  kcc26
1 year ago

YES, if you have the cap space in otto and are going for it this year. Ask them to add a smaller piece to seal the deal.

kcc26
kcc26
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Yeah, it’s my first time doing an off-season with this format. It’s labor-intensive but a lot of fun. I really should probably lay low for another year before trying to really go for it. it’s hard though when you feel like you CAN be competitive.

would you do $11 mullins straight up for $44 ramirez? how does that value compute for you?

thanks!

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  kcc26
1 year ago

For me, that is a lot of salary to take on this early in the off-season. I use someone else’s surplus calculator (you can find it somewhere in the community forum) and it has the below values for Ottoneu 5×5…

Ramirez = $35.4
Berrios = $18.9
Mullins = $27.5
Ray = $23.2

You are getting $54.3 of value for $69 of salary, while giving up $50.7 of value for $21 of salary. Not good. There are always teams that need to dump salary in the off-season and you should able to find an expensive star IF without giving that much. Star players are always overvalued, so Mullins for J-Ram could be done if you have a bunch of extra cap space. I wouldn’t do it, but I am probably higher on Mullins than you. No need to take on someone else’s salary issues in November.

kcc26
kcc26
Reply to  hot corner
1 year ago

thanks, i think that’s a great point. The trade price on guys will come down as teams get closer to the keeper deadline needing to shed salary.

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Honestly, with a $400 salary cap, an $11 Mullins is Ottoneu gold. Some regression still puts him at 25/25/.270. Gold baby!!!

Hernan 2021 FB Schmohawk.......
Hernan 2021 FB Schmohawk.......
1 year ago

2022!!!!!, howdy Razzball Family!!!!, Casas seems like the real deal, plate discipline first( walk a lot, drive ball to all fields), power will come( better results)…, Red Sox need to spend their money on pitching, for get the Semien, Seager, Baez, Schwarber rumors.., losing Eduardo , durability issues with Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, uncertainty with Hauck and Whitlock’s roles, etc…, beefing the bullpen up and finding a good starter is where the money should go, Let Casas and Jarren Duran play from the start!!!!!!!, put Kike at 2b!!!!. my 2 pieces!!! I’m in League too!!!, good luck and let’s do it!!!!!!!