There’s likely a lot of factors that go into fantasy baseball prospects, but here’s two I look at:
1. Ready and it’s up to the club.
2. Not ready.
Frank Voila! That’s it! Well, maybe not it it, but it is close enough to it. That it is in the It Crowd. In the big broad, general sense. If the player is in the 2nd category, then I’m not going to cover them. It’s why we have Prospectors Itch and Hobbs. They’ll tell you the guys who will be ready, eventually. My job is to tell you the guys who are ready, then leave it up to the team on whether or not they’re going to promote them. Triston Casas aka The House of Triston, as he’s known to George RR Martin, is ready. Honestly, Triple-A is a way station, in general. If a guy is in Triple-A, he could be in the majors. There’s no more “learning” for Triple-A guys. Maybe some are just not good enough for the majors, so they sit in Triple-A for years, but even those guys are Quad-A guys, not Triple-A guys. See, there’s no such thing as Triple-A. You’ve been woke’d up. You’re welcome. This doesn’t mean the Red Sox will call up Triston Casas, just because he’s in Triple-A. But they could at any time. So, what can we expect from Triston Casas for 2022 fantasy baseball?
Psyche! Before we get to the rest of the post, just wanted to announce that we’re doing an NFBC league. Originally, we were talking about starting an NFBC Draft Champions league (slow draft, you don’t have to be at your computer) on Black Friday, but I forgot I had family in town for Thanksgiving, so I set the league up to draft starting the following Monday at noon EST. That’s the Monday after Thanksgiving (11/29). It is a slow draft league; you don’t need to be at your computer to draft. Yes, I said this already five sentences ago, so sue me! First person to sue gets Razzball, 2nd person gets Cougs, 3rd person to sue gets my car — it needs oil! The league will be the Draft Champions format, $150 to join, and you can win $1000, or $350 to place, or $150 to show — overall prize is $30,000, 2nd place is $7,500 etc. You can find the prizes at their site. The link for the league is here, NFBC LEAGUE. This 15-team league has no waivers and is Draft and Hold. This league already has quite a few people who have joined, because I opened it to our Patreon a few days ago. I’m going to start rolling out my rankings there soon too. Anyway, back to Triston Casas for 2022 fantasy baseball:
Think the Red Sox have realized that Bobby Dalbec is great, but vs. lefties. Enter the lefty slugger, Triston Casas. This year through two levels (Double and Triple-A), he went 14/7; .281/.396/.486 in 82 games. If I could circle with a marker one number, it’s .396. The 2nd number I’d circle is .281. The number I’d cross out is 7. The number I’d alter when you weren’t looking is the 14, because of the 70-grade raw power. The reason I circled the first two numbers is because the Red Sox love OBP and a 1st baseman that gets on base is a lot more attractive to them than Bobby D. Sorry, I like Dalbec a lot, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s traded soon, or is relegated to “only vs. lefties.” Showing a big, lumbering 1st baseman hit home runs is boring, so let’s show you a moon rocket triple:
Triston Casas is PUMPED after this two-run triple, his first with the @WooSox. pic.twitter.com/LU4OksfMvF
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 24, 2021
Stay for the very end of the video when he just belly flops at third, and stands for a Tiger Woods fist pump. Rickey Henderson he is not.
So, about Triston Casas’s profile: For years, Triston Casas is going to pound that Pesky Pole like he’s a Boston stripper. If he goes doink off the monster enough, he might hit .290+. If everything comes together for him, we’re talking about a guy who could go 40/.310 for many years. Casas sprays balls all over with an insane contact rate, all over the plate, mostly destroying anything high, middle-in, middle-out–Well, everywhere. If the ball is a strike, he can’t be beat. Our former podcaster Geoff, who knows prospects and the Red Sox, said Casas reminds him of Freddie Freeman. When Freeman first came up, he looked like a 27/.270 hitter, and now he’s 30/.300. Casas is getting a much earlier jump on things too, so he might not wait until he’s 30 before he becomes a .300 hitter.
Strong and doesn’t sell-out for power — a guy who covers the plate like Triston Casas does is very alluring. So, this brings us back to our original query, will the Red Sox start the year with Triston Casas? Eh oh–*coughs ferociously for 45 minutes* No. Teams play games. Literally and figuratively. Geoff thinks Casas could break camp with the Red Sox, but I’m pessimistic because the chances of a rookie, who just got to Triple-A, breaking camp is very rare. Could Casas be that rare one? Sure, but I’ not betting on the rare. For 2022, I’ll give Triston Casas projections of 41/16/48/.267/1 in 303 ABs with a chance for more.