Top 100 Starting Pitchers for 2021: Week 14

Did everybody get your fill of glizzys and Natty Ice yesterday? Feel nationalistic? Great! Let’s get back on the imaginary sports manager train and figure out what we’re going to do to finish out the year. My esteemed colleague MattTruss reminded me that there are 12 weeks left in the fantasy season. Holy Fred Durst — We’re rollin’! Speaking of which, one of my favorite bands — Spiritbox — is going on their first post-pandemic tour with Limp Bizkit. How the heck does that happen? It presents me with the great conundrum: do I give Fred Durst money? Is this the biggest moral conundrum that you’ll see in today’s post? Possibly. Join me after the Greinke graphic and we’ll speak on the metaphysics of curveballs.

German Marquez: 

• Ah, mein freund! You didn’t dare start the Rockies’ ace at home and you missed out! I mean, let’s be fair, the Rockies’ pack factor is like something like 20% increased offensive productivity. But, when the Pirates come to town, that basically means over a 3 game stand, you’re scoring 8 runs combined instead of 7. Woof. Yeah, there will be blowups in the Mile High, but let variance work in your favor. Marquez had a rough start to the year and I asked you to pick him up two weeks ago after he blew up at Cincinnati (note: not Coors Field), and now he’s given up 9 hits in 29 IP since then. He’s also only K’d 7.7 per 9, which puts him firmly in Zack Greinke territory. Maybe if Marquez started talking to himself on the mound…

Shohei Ohtani: 

• Left Wednesday’s start against the Yankees after 0.2 innings, where he walked 4 and gave up 7 runs. Blowouts happen, but Ohtani’s walking nearly 5 per 9 on the season, his fastball speed is still pretty erratic (often vacillating 2-3% per start), and his pitch mix is still pretty situational. Given that he’s shown himself to be a generational hitting talent, I’m still in team “Make Ohtani a full time hitter,” but this pitcher thing is going to keep happening whether I like it or not. But the truth is, he’s not racking up enough innings and he’s walking too many batters to merit elite fantasy value. He’s hanging out around SP70 on the Player Rater, right in Andrew Heaney territory. If you don’t like Heaney, then are you raving over Ohtani? Even if you’re thinking adjustments are on the way, Ohtani already surpassed his career MLB-high IP level, and we’re barely halfway through the season. If I’m using my Nostradamus hat, I’m saying Ohtani’s going to rest a lot more down the stretch, if not get shut down early. If this two-way player thing is going to last past age 27, the Angels aren’t going to let him go too far past 100 IP, especially given his injury history (where he missed nearly 2 years of pitching due to multiple arm issues). So, if you’re in the camp where you’re deciding if you should play him as hitter or pitcher, I play him as hitter 100% of the time right now.

Trevor Bauer: 

• Uhhhhh…Guy should be in jail. If you drafted Bauer, you already weren’t listening to me, so, do whatever you want with him, because that’s what he’d do to you.

Robbie Ray: 

• Ah, yes, let’s clean the timeline with a tidy checkup on our tightest leader, Robbie Ray. You ready to salivate? June Robbie Ray: 53 Ks, 9BB, 4-1 record, 2.86 ERA. Be still my beating heart! [eats a baconator] Well, to everybody who believed me and Rudy about Robbie Ray, you’re welcome. But, let’s not sit here on our laurels and feast upon the delicious victory. Instead, let’s dive into the spoils of the Bay of Ray. I really don’t know what that means but I just like imagining Robbie Ray having his own cove. ENYWHEY. The sustainability of the Ray (not the fish) depended on his re-introduction of other pitches into the environment. Ray got to his success by pulling a near-unprecedented abandonment of all pitches except for his fastball and slider. Starters simply don’t do that. And the reason they don’t do that is that they face so many batters that batters can guess fastball/slider fairly easily and start parking the ball. A reliever can have two pitches because they’re only going to see 3-5 batters in an ideal situation. A starter is going to — hopefully — see 20 or more batters. So, Ray needed to bring something other than his fastball/slider to the table, and we saw that in his last start, where 10% of his pitches were his very nice curveball. Maybe the sticky stuff ban is causing the change? But hopefully not a changeup…Ray’s changeup has always been a disaster, and he’s got a sinker that was useful last year but he abandoned it this year. So, we’re seeing him move to 3 pitches, and there could be a 4th pitch by the end of the year. What does that mean for fantasy managers — yes, you out there in laptop land! — who are sitting on a trove of Ray booty? First, congratulations, you’re on your way to the fantasy playoffs. And second, you might have a top 20 pitcher for your keepers next year. I hesitate to say this, but I’m ready to recommend that dynasty and keeper teams pursue Ray. If the Blue Jays had a competent bullpen that didn’t blow his wins (he’s had an additional 4 quality starts that didn’t end up as wins), he’d easily be in the top 20 on the player rater right now. Buy, buy Ray-be, buy, buy!

Zack Wheeler: 

• Anybody watch Return to Oz and remember the Wheelers? I was horrified by that movie. A quick search of Google tells me that the Wheelers were in the books, too. To be fair, I never read the Oz books. Always seemed like HBO was better about shows than books. ENYWHEY. Zack Hweeler has 98 Ks in his last 11 starts to go with a 1.31 ERA. OK, maybe you really wanted Jacob deGrom at 1.05 because you thought Trea Turner wasn’t going to bring you treats. Fast forward 3 months and 10 pounds to my waistline: Zack Wheeler has a deGrom-like stat line and Treat Urner is top 10 on the Player Rater. Ya coulda had both. Wheeler’s gone nearly 15 innings without a run and he hasn’t given up a barrel since June 10. I mean, I know college is out, but you’d imagine he’d tap at least one barrel. Wheeler’s well on his way to being next year’s first round ace pick that I’ll tell you not to draft because Jack Flaherty’s finally gonna stay healthy and return value. But if you’re in a dynasty league, you don’t need to draft, so go get Wheeler before he finishes the year with Pedro Martinez-type numbers.

Antonio Senzatela: 

• I don’t know what the humidor’s doing in Coors Field, but it’s messing with my DFS hopes. For Saturday’s game, Kyle Freeland faced off against Wade LeBlanc in a low-pressure atmosphere featuring Trevor Story, C.J. Cron, Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill, and Paul Goldschmidt. Shoulda been a billion runs, right? 60 at bats later, the game finished with the Rockies winning 3-2. Ugh. There’s some seriously messed up stuff going on in Coors, and I’m not talking cheap beer. Maybe it’s the fact the Cardinals suck. Maybe it’s the fact that the Rockies are evolving. But noted worm killer Antonio Senzatela has a 29:5 K:BB ratio over his last 37 innings, with a 4.00ish ERA. I mean, that’s 1996-levels of production, but if you’re desperate for pitching, Senzatela is…something. Much like the Alec Mills nightmare (<–my favorite psychedelic folk band name), Senzatela can be useful in short spurts as a fill-in.

Drew Smyly: 

• Past 4 games: 22 IP, 1.20 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 28% hard hit rate and only one barrel allowed. Big change from his previous month, which featured a 6+ ERA and FIP. What’s going on? [Plays Marvin Gaye] Less cutters, more fastballs and curveballs. In his past two outings, he’s doubled his curveball usage. However, much like many of the other short-term improvers, he’s becoming a 2.5 pitch pitcher, and none of those pitches are holding significant positive value. Feel free to add him while he’s hot, but drop him just as fast.

Joe Ross: 

• Starting to calm down after a disastrous start to the season, where he posted an 8 ERA / 8 FIP through May. Since June, he’s got a sub-2.00 ERA with a FIP well below 4.00, and 43 Ks. His velocity has been ticking up slowly but surely, suggesting the shortened 2020 season gave him a fair amount of rust that needed to be cleaned out before he started clicking. Now that he’s hitting 94-95 MPH on average with his fastball in games, he’s looking like a solid midseason addition to help your pitching lineup. He’s still giving up about one homer per game, but most pitchers are flopping in the post-stick police world, whereas Joe Ross is flipping. That’s good in houses, gymnastics, and pancakes, and it’s good enough for your fantasy team.

Gerrit Cole: 

• Let’s address the elephant in the room: Gerrit Cole is struggling. He got booed off the field on Sunday, but it was Yankee Field and they throw glizzys at players just for fun. We knew Cole was going to struggle at some point; he was caught red-handed asking for sticky substances in the off-season. That said, Cole had a 5+ FIP for a period that lasted 30% of the season last year and still finished as SP6 in 2020. That was one of the main reasons I told you not to draft him for 2020, but were you listening, or did you just show up here for my sexy Zack Greinke photos? For the time being, I won’t hate you if you decide to sit Cole; after all, Grey and I warned you about Cole not returning value on his ADP way back in March. And it doesn’t change the fact that my system — which has worked with so many pitchers — is still telling me to trust Cole’s ROS outcome. I both love you and hate you Space:X! And it’s not just me — it’s people with television jobs and million dollar cars that are saying Cole will be fine without the stick. So, hang tight. If you’re in DFS, you might want to stack against Cole in the near future, but for you season-long players, don’t sell on Cole right now because he is very likely to return to form sooner than later.

Space:X Rankings

Another day, another re-sort. I wish there was no hyphen there, for I’d rather be at a resort than doing a re-sort. I’ve actually been working hardest on my hitter rankings because hitters are so much more of a mess than pitchers. I mean, there are like an additional 50 pitchers you can stream if you don’t like the top 60 that are rostered in most leagues. For hitters? You’re sitting around hoping something called Thairo Estrada hits a grand slam. I mean, who replaces Kyle Schwarber for your home runs while he’s out for the next month? Alcides Escobar sure ain’t doing that. But Gerrit Cole’s struggling? OK, Zach Thompson is blowing away hitters right now and putting up Cole-like numbers. Can’t get Zhompson? That’s OK: Kyle Mullers, Tarik Skubal, Cole Irvin, and Michael King have all been streamers extraordinaire this past week. Michael King’s not even a starter and he’s struck out more batters than Cole, so that’s a bonus for your RP slot. Whereas the hitter market in fantasy baseball is extremely efficient (everybody who hits homers is rostered), the market for pitchers is inefficient (every pitcher who is rostered gets Ks). Notice the inversion? It’s literary! Whereas Alcides Escobar won’t hit homers no matter how long you leave him in your lineup, Tarik Skubal — or whoever — will always strike somebody out. And if you don’t like Skubal’s matchup, there’s another pitcher out there who you could get easily. So, use the below rankings to help understand which players have the most confidence in their performance, and keep working to accumulate as many of those pitchers as possible.

If you missed last week’s article, I re-tooled the rankings to have a “Confidence” score based on their IP, K-BB%, SIERA, CSW%, and Rudy’s ROS rankings. I have the ranks weighted and updated through Saturday, July 3. The table below works by expanding the roster in the upper left, and you can search and resort to your heart’s content. I’m also including a public version of the CSV right here if you want to download it.

If you like graphics, here’s the distribution of my confidence scores, and you can probably read them in two ways. The first way: there are 80 pitchers worth having confidence in your 12-team fantasy league. The second way: there are 28 pitchers worth having confidence in with 92 possible streamers. Is the glass half full or half empty? You decide!

Week 24 Pitcher Data.xls