This weekend was the Razzball 17th Annual 4th of July Summer Bash and Midyear Performance Appraisal, where the writers get together to bond over some good-natured peer criticism. Grey opened the bash with his famous sausage eating contest, which Skorish skillfully won before being transported emergently to the port-a-john to conduct his next meeting. Next, Donkey Teeth gave out the awards for “Tightest Pants,” “Biggest Baller,” and the “Maikel Franco Memorial Award for Bravery in Fantasy Baseball Rostership.” That last one was a little awkward, what with Maikel Franco being still alive and playing, but DT kept saying that “Franco is dead to me.” Either way, I was happy to leave with the coveted “Tightest Pants” award, although I will admit it’s the Covid 19 that went to my waist. Can’t wait to show my boy Robbie Ray! But from that meetup and scarring peer criticism, I learned to adjust the ranks, and we’ve got another big rank adjustment today!
Zach Davies:
- Zaccarius Times New Roman Davies pitched the first six innings of a combined no-hitter this week, serving as the Michael Phelps to the team relay. Cubs fans are certainly saying, “Davies is exactly the compensation we needed for trading away Yu Darvish!” Are you buying all the Davies shersies you can get your hands on? Starting a new cryptocurrency called “Zachcoin?” Let’s see what the ol’ stat-0-nator tells us about Davies: 5.5 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 on the season. Yeah, that’s about as trustworthy as Dogecoin. His xFIP is 5.32, meaning that a lot of dongs (that’s dongs, not doge) should have left the park but didn’t. Even his ground ball percentage isn’t thrilling, at 45% after the no-hitter. Davies has shown signs of improvement over his last few starts but his participation in the group no-no (I haven’t heard that term since college btw) is more noise than signal.
- We’ve talked about The Civilizer a few times on the blog, mostly because he was one of those rainbow unicorns that kept putting up stellar lines despite having none of the typical skills of a stellar pitcher. He was on his way to 2020 Marco Gonzales-levels of fantasy utility by sheer volume of innings, but — like so many pitchers who are cranking too hard this year — Civale fell victim to the injury goblins after he sprained his middle finger. Too much driving on the highway, Aaron? He’ll be out until August or so, and that makes for a metric sheet fun of injured Clevelanders: Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, and Logan Allen (remember him!?). You in April when you stacked the Cleveland rotation: “Victory is mine!” You in June when all of them have major injures: “$450 FAAB on Zach Davies!”
- Suspended for five games for throwing at Grey’s preseason MVP nominee, Maikel Franco. Manoah has appealed the ruling and we’re awaiting the decision. MLB punishments don’t mean a lot anyway. Remember how much the Astros suffered? When Minnesota Twins reliever Tyler Duffy got a suspension earlier this year, the team just waited until a doubleheader, played him in the first game, and then enacted his suspension thereafter; he effectively missed no actual time that he would have been used. Manoah’s suspension is a bit longer, but still, MLB has basically no concern with enacting any punishment with teeth. I would expect Manoah to keep playing.
- I know I wrote him up for regression candidacy — the bad kind of regression, like the stuff you get with your hypnotherapist — but the Framberghini has been zooming to the top of the Player Rater. Check this list: Jacob deGrom, Kevin Gausman, Framber Valdez. Those are your leaders in points per game on the Player Rater for 2021. Still, Valdez has been incredibly lucky, with a FIP nearly two points higher than his ERA. Ah, there’s the rub (<—things you say when you’re watching me prep BBQ). Valdez is good but he’s not deGrom and Gausman levels of good. He’s not K’ing enough batters to remain on this torrid pace, so if you’re one of those managers who loves a good “sell high” (and I don’t mean you trading at 1AM in your apartment listening to Pink Floyd), the Framberghini is a good starting place.
Trevor Bauer:
- 5.37 FIP over the last month, 1.32 WHIP, and over 2 dongs per game allowed. I made some DFS money this past week stacking against Bauer, who has awful splits against lefties. Bauer K’s lefties at a 10% lower clip than righties, and lefties are bashing his balls to a .463 SLG% so far. Put another way, it’s like every time a lefty goes to bat against Bauer, that lefty is Manny Machado. Woof. Still, he’s dominating righties, and that’s where he’s been making his bread so far. Plus, we all know that Bauer was Team Grip Enhancer, so stay tuned to see how he fares without his favorite substances. Remember we’re seeing evidence that it takes more than one start to see the effects of those who are dropping the grip enhancers, so be patient.
Mike Soroka:
- Completely re-tore his Achilles tendon after just walking to the clubhouse. Do doctors give discounts on redo surgeries? Best wishes to Soroka on healing. He should be dropped in all formats, including keep forever dynasties. He’s not playing this year and probably won’t play all that much next year. He may not pitch again as a starter. [possible hyperbole]
Danny Duffy:
- He’s back! Sort of. He’s not really back in the way that you like for fantasy baseball. Royals’ manager Mike Matheny told reporters that Duffy gets hurt when he’s pushed hard, so they’re thinking of keeping him in an extended bullpen role for a while, or at least on a pitch count. Duffy was a breakout early in the season before getting injured in mid-May. He’s worth a speculative add in deep leagues but most other formats should just wait until after the all-star break to see what the Royals do with him.
- You know those people who just never thrive until the pressure is on? I think there was a whole genre of those movies in the 1980s. Zach Thompson’s name even fits with the 80s movie theme. ENYWHEY. Zhompson had a pedestrian minor league career, where he had ERAs and FIPs above 4.50 in his last stops, and got his cup of coffee at the age of 27 in the Marlins organization, basically as a roster filler. What has Zhompson done since arriving? He’s K’d nearly 30% of batters he’s faced while accumulating an ERA and FIP below 2.00. And his opponents haven’t been slackers, either — he’s faced Atlanta, Boston, the Nationals, and the Cubs. What’s more, none of those power bats have managed a homer off of him yet. Zhompson went toe-to-toe with Schwarber, Acuna, Freeman, Just Dongs, Xander, Devers, and Treat Urner, and none of them bashed his balls. So, Zhompson is worth a speculative add in all formats, but temper expectations about his continued success.
- First four starts: about a 6.00 ERA, nearly 5 xFIP, 23% ground ball rate. Last three games: 10+ K/9 to 2.60 BB/9, 3.12 ERA to 3.91 xFIP, 41.5% ground ball rate. Type “risky baller” into Google right now. No, on second thought, maybe don’t do that. There’s simply not enough data on Logan Gilbert to say anything accurately right now. He only pitched 130 IP in the minors, and didn’t play high-level ball in 2020, so he’s whatever you want him to be. Recency bias isn’t a stunning way to predict future performance, but 200 words ago I asked you to pick up Zach Thompson, so whatever. I take my advice from the Book of Steven Tyler, and I’m living on the edge.
Sammy Long:
- The Giants brought up Long and he’s been good so far despite skipping — for the most part — the higher minor league stops. I sense a theme in this week’s article…young pitchers rushed to the majors to fill the holes caused by massive injuries. I know I sound like a broken record, but you could have drafted zero starting pitchers in April and still emerged with 5-6 top per-game scoring pitchers…if you’re one of those people who stays up until the 2AM waiver wire unlock. Maybe you west coasters can do that. Me? I’m basically transitioning to best ball and DFS next year. These injuries are redonk and daily lineups are bumming me out. ENYWHEY. Sammy Long. Top 50 on a per-game basis according to the Player Rater. All of his true skill stats are more-or-less in line with his baseball card stats. Plays for the Giants, who are cranking out wins. Elite control and great strikeout skills. Available basically everywhere. Go Long for Sammy!
Kyle Muller:
- Witch hunt! You’ve been looking for K’s and Muller’s the guy you want. Lies! Fabrications! Alternate facts! As I’m about to spend the next thousand words explaining, you simply can’t take a beautiful 9K in 6IP game (that’s what Muller did on Sunday, Kyle) and extrapolate a ton on that. Muller’s got 140 IP of 5.5 BB/9 track record in the minors to prove just how naive you are to run to the waiver wire and grab him. He’s got K upside but he’s nothing more than a dart throw in any leagues shallower than 16 teams, or he’s a fine DFS play.
Dinelson Lamet:
- To the IL with [checks notes] forearm inflammation. OK, I want to make it clear I’m not victory lapping an injury, but when Lamet chose to pitch through a partially torn ligament, and didn’t throw his slider for 8 months and still couldn’t use the pitch in April and he’s a two pitch pitcher, and he started the year on the IL, and only made it to 5IP twice in 2021…I mean, we sort of saw this coming. And the trainers in San Diego knew this was coming. But they’ll couch it as “We tried rehab, we tried to let him strengthen naturally, and we really respect the work Lamet put it to make this work, but with all avenues exhausted, we’ve decided to pursue Tommy John.” If Lamet had TJ when the injury first occurred, he’d be 75% through his rehab by now. Instead, he’s been a long reliever for the better part of a year in one of the most formative periods of his career, and will likely miss increasing amounts of time. Tyler Glasnow, take note.
Space:X Rankings
I promised you updates, and I promised you the list, and I’m going big or going home. Here’s the spiel: y’all know I get a little bit carried away by research. OK, obsessive. It’s my thing. So, I’m preparing my 2021 Fantasy Football Rankings (I’m the most aggressive ranker on Jalen Hurts and highest overall on D’Andre Swift, bee-tee-dubya), and I realize that I want to learn more about projections and ranking and whatnot. So, I start deep-diving. And then I learn I want to create new ways to present that information. So I continue deep-diving. And finally, I decide that I want to automate this as much as I can: I had, at one point, nearly 20 CSV files loaded into a workbook and I thought to myself, “Self, this is more redonk than the injuries in your lineups.” Seriously, I’ve given up on so many teams, including my Perts League team. Thanks Eloy! ENYWHEY. So, I’ve got my process down to a lean 3 sheets in my Excel workbook now. Rather than just updating the ranks, we’re evolving the ranks.
The next iteration of pitcher rankings will contain a “certainty” scale. I might rename it “Confidence” next week. I’m uncertain and unconfident about what to name it for now. These past 15 weeks, I’ve been ranking largely on four factors that are often seen among top SPs at the end of year Player Rater. Those qualities are: Innings Pitched, K-BB%, SIERA, and CSW%. Here’s the breakdown of what they mean:
- Innings Pitched: The volume of innings pitched is important to fantasy baseballers because it means A) increased strikeouts for increased innings, B) more “oomph” to ERA/WHIP (or more “fuhgeddaboutit” for bad pitchers), C) more chances for wins, and D) there are fewer “elite” IP pitchers who top this category. Also, the more IP a pitcher has, the more certain we are of their potential performance.
- K-BB%: The strikeout minus walk percentage is the biggest factor in predicting pitcher performance, believe it or not. K% shows how often a pitcher strikes a batter out, thereby nullifying a chance for the hitter to put the ball in play and get on base. BB% shows how often a pitcher gives a free baserunner (who could be driven home by a competent batter).
- SIERA: The Skill Independent ERA shows how capable a pitcher is to limit damage from batters. ERAs tend to regress back toward the SIERA over time, either in a “positive” way or a “negative” way.
- CSW%: The Called Strikes plus Whiffs% show how often pitchers get strikes, and this correlates to K% and SIERA. It’s that last cherry on top that confirms the other categories.
Now, I was unhappy with just listing all of those attributes (which is what I had been doing for 15 weeks) because at a certain point, the table is just a giant mess. It takes you forever to scroll to the bottom and it’s hard to find exactly what you’re looking for. And let’s be fair, it’s a friggin pain for me to sit there and put every player into a tier. Also, it’s more descriptive than predictive.
So, I decided to evolve the ranks. I kept the same categories but weighted the ranks of each pitcher in their respective categories. This weighting gives credence to the elite pitchers. Then, I included Rudy’s Rest of Season 2021 Fantasy Baseball Projections — also weighted — and combined them all together. As you may know, Rudy’s projections include everything from regressed performance expectations to park factors to lineup support to taste in music. I averaged all of those ranks to come up with the “Certainty” score: this indicates — from both a projecting and a descriptive perspective — how certain we can be that a pitcher will finish in a respective location on the Player Rater come the end of season. A rating of 1 would be “absofreakinglutely” certain and then the numbers get less certain as we go down the scale. You can see the rapid decline in certainty as we go down the list. That said, it gives us a shorthand to see “who is better,” although I still encourage everybody not to adopt strict hierarchical beliefs about the table.
Instead, think about this: All baseball performances are volatile. There is immense variation in daily baseball performances. In other words, nobody can predict how a player will perform on a given day. The best sports betters are right 56% of the time, or slightly better than tossing a coin. Vegas has legions of employees and supercomputers churning out all this data and they can’t predict the future. These billionaire owners with massive stadiums and legions of analytic teams can’t be certain how a player will perform. But we can compare players to each other, and we can be more or less confident that Player A will outperform Player B. Given that we know about the volatility and variance in baseball, the certainty score gives us a shorthand to be more confident in a player’s performance compared to other players over the rest of the season. We can never know for certain how a player will perform. Instead, we have more or less confidence that an elite player will outperform a lesser player, and the certainty score helps us understand which pitchers qualify as elite.
That said, I’m bringing you the good stuff in a brand spanking new table format. If you want to see all of it, click “show _____ entries” and move it to whatever number you want to see. It maxes out at 100 per page, so if you want to see 100-200, then click the little tab at the lower right and you’ll see them. If you want to search for a player, put that in the search box. If you want to sort columns, you can do that now! The default sorting is the Confidence panel, but if you don’t trust me, then sort whatever way you like! Rudy’s ROS values are the $ value taken from the rest of season projections linked above. I didn’t include the weighted averages because it breaks the table on the user end; just too many columns.
Please also keep in mind that we’re only 1-2 starts into a new “non-sticky” regime, so…yeah, I don’t like Gerrit Cole too much at the top, but of all the pitchers we can be confident about, I suppose it’s Cole.
Quick Takes on the Certainty Score:
- Jacob deGrom is downgraded because of his IP, where he has a weighted rank of 57. In perspective, he’s basically pitched 4 fewer good games than the top IP pitchers, Trevor Bauer and Sandy Alcantara. Same goes for Corbin Burnes.
- Andrew Heaney: I’ve written so many times about his regression likelihood, and the certainty scale likes him too. He’s got a weighted K-BB% of 22, which is nuts. He’s sandwiched between Aaron Nola and Huascar Ynoa (RIP) on the K-BB% scale. Form the summoning circle for the regression faeries!
- Chris Paddack has been flying way under the radar recently, and he’s got a nice ranking of 34th overall on the certainty scale. I know he’s available in some leagues, so go grab him.
- Michael Kopech: Well, here’s an outlier. Kopech has thrown 12 innings this year, and has been on the IL after he fell off the pitcher’s mound in an awkward follow-through. But he’s dominated in that small sample size, and Rudy’s basically got a flat value on him ROS, so the certainty score likes Kopech. That said, Kopech might be back soon and could be worth a stash.
- Zach Thompson: Right below Kopech due to his blazing fast start. Thompson has a 15 weighted rank for SIERA and 8 weighted rank for CSW%. The reason I chose not to heavily weight IP in the formula is that we could still have room for discovery in small sample sizes. The examples of Thompson and Kopech illustrate fantasy managers still have options to grab on the waiver wire, and these are some players you can pursue.
Let’s do peer criticism down in the comments!
Week 24 Pitcher Data.xls
| Name | Confidence | IP | K-BB% | SIERA | CSW% | Rudy ROS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 3.95 | 158.2 | 29.20% | 2.8 | 32.50% | 38.9 |
| Max Scherzer | 5.8 | 154 | 29.80% | 2.8 | 32.00% | 27.9 |
| Corbin Burnes | 5.9 | 152 | 30.50% | 2.59 | 34.10% | 21 |
| Charlie Morton | 8.25 | 165 | 21.00% | 3.5 | 31.20% | 21.7 |
| Aaron Nola | 9.2 | 157.2 | 24.00% | 3.32 | 30.80% | 21.5 |
| Kevin Gausman | 9.75 | 170 | 22.40% | 3.46 | 30.90% | 18 |
| Yu Darvish | 11.05 | 146 | 23.80% | 3.38 | 30.50% | 21.9 |
| Robbie Ray | 11.45 | 170.1 | 25.90% | 3.14 | 30.00% | 18.3 |
| Joe Musgrove | 12.3 | 154.2 | 20.70% | 3.6 | 32.00% | 16.5 |
| Brandon Woodruff | 12.4 | 163.1 | 23.30% | 3.34 | 29.80% | 21.5 |
| Lucas Giolito | 15.9 | 158.1 | 20.80% | 3.7 | 30.10% | 21.2 |
| Julio Urias | 17 | 163.1 | 21.60% | 3.58 | 30.30% | 9.9 |
| Carlos Rodon | 17.6 | 124.2 | 28.50% | 2.89 | 30.20% | 16.3 |
| Walker Buehler | 18.1 | 186 | 19.50% | 3.75 | 29.30% | 19.2 |
| Zack Wheeler | 18.75 | 195.1 | 23.50% | 3.2 | 28.10% | 20.2 |
| Jose Berrios | 19.1 | 166.1 | 19.80% | 3.71 | 29.10% | 17.5 |
| Freddy Peralta | 20.1 | 125 | 23.00% | 3.51 | 30.70% | 9.7 |
| Sean Manaea | 21.45 | 156.2 | 20.90% | 3.61 | 29.10% | 10.6 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 21.55 | 163.2 | 20.80% | 3.63 | 29.90% | 7 |
| Frankie Montas | 21.7 | 163.2 | 19.70% | 3.75 | 29.30% | 11.3 |
| Logan Webb | 22.55 | 118.1 | 20.30% | 3.18 | 31.50% | 6.2 |
| Dylan Cease | 22.6 | 151.1 | 21.20% | 3.69 | 30.10% | 8.5 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | 22.85 | 138.1 | 16.00% | 4.05 | 31.50% | 16.6 |
| Luis Garcia | 24.3 | 133 | 20.30% | 3.72 | 30.30% | 9.2 |
| Sonny Gray | 25.1 | 113.2 | 19.50% | 3.72 | 30.50% | 10.6 |
| Tyler Mahle | 25.7 | 159.1 | 19.70% | 3.78 | 29.70% | 7.3 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 26.75 | 106.1 | 25.60% | 3.08 | 32.40% | |
| German Marquez | 28.6 | 167 | 16.10% | 3.95 | 28.70% | 9.2 |
| Blake Snell | 29.05 | 128 | 18.40% | 4.01 | 29.30% | 15.9 |
| Jacob deGrom | 29.2 | 92 | 41.70% | 1.74 | 35.80% | -2.6 |
| Adam Wainwright | 29.95 | 184.1 | 16.30% | 3.99 | 30.30% | 3 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 30.65 | 115.1 | 20.10% | 3.71 | 28.70% | 9.2 |
| Shane McClanahan | 31.2 | 110.1 | 20.20% | 3.63 | 31.50% | |
| Trevor Rogers | 31.95 | 118.2 | 19.40% | 3.81 | 30.50% | 3.8 |
| Max Fried | 33.15 | 136.2 | 17.20% | 3.84 | 28.10% | 15.8 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | 33.8 | 157.2 | 15.00% | 4.17 | 28.50% | 12.8 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 33.85 | 136.1 | 20.50% | 3.65 | 28.10% | 6.7 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 35.15 | 180.2 | 17.70% | 3.74 | 27.80% | 5.7 |
| Shane Bieber | 36.6 | 90.2 | 25.30% | 3.18 | 33.90% | -5.8 |
| Collin McHugh | 36.7 | 8.2 | 35.70% | 2.13 | 39.50% | |
| Andrew Heaney | 36.9 | 120 | 19.60% | 3.85 | 28.30% | 9.1 |
| Marcus Stroman | 38 | 163 | 15.70% | 3.95 | 28.50% | 2 |
| Luis Castillo | 38.3 | 170 | 14.30% | 4.07 | 27.40% | 15.1 |
| Chris Sale | 38.6 | 25 | 22.00% | 3.38 | 32.10% | |
| Framber Valdez | 38.6 | 116 | 11.90% | 3.81 | 28.50% | 9.6 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 38.7 | 146 | 15.00% | 4.17 | 29.00% | 5.7 |
| Jordan Montgomery | 38.75 | 138.1 | 15.70% | 4.18 | 28.60% | 8.1 |
| Alex Cobb | 39.2 | 77.2 | 17.70% | 3.66 | 30.50% | |
| Huascar Ynoa | 39.6 | 71.2 | 20.70% | 3.57 | 31.10% | -3.8 |
| Chris Bassitt | 40.65 | 151 | 19.50% | 3.77 | 28.20% | |
| Patrick Sandoval | 42.45 | 79.2 | 16.70% | 3.97 | 31.00% | |
| Alex Wood | 44.4 | 125.2 | 18.00% | 3.76 | 32.00% | -9.2 |
| Lance Lynn | 44.45 | 135.2 | 19.70% | 3.8 | 25.80% | 18.4 |
| JT Brubaker | 45.2 | 124.1 | 16.90% | 4.04 | 28.60% | |
| Brady Singer | 45.4 | 120.2 | 13.20% | 4.35 | 30.40% | 1.5 |
| Rich Hill | 45.65 | 136 | 14.60% | 4.38 | 30.60% | -1.7 |
| Austin Gomber | 45.65 | 115.1 | 14.80% | 4.29 | 30.40% | |
| Tarik Skubal | 46.05 | 130.1 | 19.30% | 3.84 | 27.50% | 2.9 |
| Alek Manoah | 46.15 | 85 | 17.10% | 4.08 | 27.80% | 11.2 |
| Jakob Junis | 46.2 | 27.1 | 20.40% | 3.68 | 30.20% | |
| Domingo German | 48 | 91 | 16.60% | 4.14 | 29.70% | |
| Chris Paddack | 48.1 | 106.1 | 16.30% | 4.11 | 27.20% | 11.3 |
| Adbert Alzolay | 48.1 | 106.1 | 16.90% | 4.02 | 28.70% | -2.6 |
| John Means | 48.25 | 126.1 | 18.10% | 4.14 | 27.50% | 6.2 |
| Steven Matz | 48.8 | 129 | 15.40% | 4.13 | 27.80% | 3.7 |
| Mike Minor | 48.95 | 158.2 | 16.10% | 4.2 | 26.80% | 7.4 |
| Jose Urquidy | 49.15 | 84.2 | 16.70% | 4.29 | 28.30% | 7.6 |
| Corey Kluber | 49.4 | 65 | 15.20% | 4.3 | 29.50% | 6.3 |
| Zac Gallen | 49.7 | 98 | 17.20% | 4.05 | 27.60% | 6.3 |
| Bailey Ober | 50.35 | 78.2 | 19.80% | 3.85 | 28.30% | -0.2 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | 50.4 | 146 | 16.40% | 4.09 | 27.20% | 2.5 |
| Taijuan Walker | 50.55 | 140 | 14.10% | 4.41 | 28.70% | -0.8 |
| Dane Dunning | 50.9 | 104.1 | 13.80% | 4.11 | 28.60% | 0 |
| Tylor Megill | 51.55 | 77.2 | 21.10% | 3.63 | 27.70% | -2.2 |
| Triston McKenzie | 51.65 | 99.2 | 17.40% | 4.17 | 27.90% | 3.9 |
| Logan Gilbert | 51.95 | 95.1 | 20.80% | 3.73 | 26.70% | 4.7 |
| Michael Pineda | 52.15 | 90 | 15.70% | 4.23 | 28.70% | 0.2 |
| Jon Gray | 52.2 | 131.1 | 14.00% | 4.31 | 28.20% | 1 |
| Zack Greinke | 55.15 | 159.2 | 12.10% | 4.56 | 26.60% | 12.5 |
| Cristian Javier | 55.25 | 48.2 | 19.10% | 3.99 | 27.40% | 6.7 |
| James Kaprielian | 56.25 | 101.2 | 15.00% | 4.4 | 28.70% | -2.2 |
| Danny Duffy | 57.45 | 60 | 16.90% | 4.18 | 28.40% | |
| Jameson Taillon | 58 | 138.2 | 16.20% | 4.3 | 27.10% | |
| Joe Ross | 58.75 | 103 | 16.90% | 4.05 | 30.40% | -12.2 |
| Jack Flaherty | 59.3 | 76 | 18.40% | 3.92 | 28.10% | -4.9 |
| Pablo Lopez | 60.3 | 101 | 21.00% | 3.51 | 27.70% | -10.1 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 61.05 | 33.2 | 17.80% | 3.93 | 25.90% | 14.9 |
| Sam Long | 61.15 | 22.1 | 16.80% | 4.14 | 28.40% | |
| David Price | 61.25 | 41.1 | 13.40% | 4.25 | 28.40% | 1.1 |
| Patrick Corbin | 61.6 | 148 | 10.80% | 4.63 | 26.30% | 11 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 62.2 | 166.2 | 11.40% | 4.68 | 27.30% | 0.4 |
| Ian Anderson | 62.35 | 109.2 | 12.90% | 4.39 | 27.10% | 4.2 |
| Nick Pivetta | 62.65 | 135 | 15.30% | 4.33 | 26.80% | -0.6 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 62.75 | 129.1 | 13.90% | 4.56 | 28.00% | -2.7 |
| Zach Eflin | 63.9 | 105.2 | 18.80% | 3.81 | 28.30% | -13.1 |
| Kyle Gibson | 65.3 | 155.2 | 10.30% | 4.58 | 27.00% | 0.7 |
| Michael Wacha | 65.55 | 91.1 | 17.40% | 4.02 | 25.80% | 0.8 |
| Matthew Boyd | 65.6 | 78.2 | 13.10% | 4.56 | 27.30% | 6.3 |
| Drew Smyly | 65.75 | 115.2 | 14.20% | 4.41 | 27.60% | -4.2 |
| David Peterson | 66.3 | 66.2 | 13.90% | 4.27 | 27.40% | |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 66.9 | 111 | 13.60% | 4.57 | 28.20% | -4.4 |
| Tyler Anderson | 66.95 | 148 | 14.20% | 4.5 | 27.00% | -4.2 |
| Ross Stripling | 68.25 | 86.1 | 15.80% | 4.32 | 26.40% | 2.2 |
| Aaron Civale | 69.6 | 102.1 | 14.40% | 4.28 | 25.60% | 3.5 |
| Zach Plesac | 70.9 | 125.1 | 11.30% | 4.69 | 26.30% | 4 |
| Jose Quintana | 71.3 | 35 | 14.10% | 4.52 | 27.10% | 6.6 |
| Luke Weaver | 72.35 | 51 | 14.40% | 4.36 | 27.60% | -3.9 |
| Casey Mize | 73.05 | 140.1 | 11.90% | 4.5 | 26.90% | -5.8 |
| Spencer Howard | 73.15 | 31.2 | 10.90% | 4.83 | 28.80% | |
| Paolo Espino | 74 | 67.1 | 15.20% | 4.36 | 28.00% | -7.3 |
| Touki Toussaint | 74.8 | 45 | 13.00% | 4.44 | 28.50% | -6.7 |
| Bruce Zimmermann | 75.05 | 54 | 11.60% | 4.67 | 27.60% | |
| Martin Perez | 76.75 | 100 | 11.70% | 4.62 | 26.50% | |
| Kyle Freeland | 77.45 | 102 | 13.30% | 4.44 | 26.70% | -5.5 |
| Griffin Canning | 77.6 | 60.1 | 11.90% | 4.72 | 26.90% | 1.8 |
| Wade Miley | 77.9 | 155.2 | 11.60% | 4.44 | 25.40% | -4.3 |
| Merrill Kelly | 79.35 | 142.1 | 14.30% | 4.32 | 26.70% | -13.2 |
| Tucker Davidson | 79.75 | 20 | 12.00% | 4.64 | 27.40% | |
| Kwang-hyun Kim | 79.75 | 96.2 | 10.00% | 4.8 | 26.60% | |
| Jorge Lopez | 80.15 | 113.1 | 9.20% | 4.8 | 26.20% | |
| Trevor Cahill | 80.25 | 35.2 | 11.30% | 4.3 | 26.20% | |
| Dallas Keuchel | 81.3 | 140.1 | 5.50% | 4.91 | 25.80% | 0.6 |
| Cody Poteet | 81.35 | 30.2 | 12.10% | 4.78 | 27.30% | |
| Anthony Kay | 81.65 | 20.1 | 16.50% | 4.05 | 25.00% | |
| Trevor Williams | 81.75 | 68.2 | 13.80% | 4.34 | 26.60% | -6.1 |
| Marco Gonzales | 81.8 | 118.1 | 11.00% | 4.96 | 25.80% | 1 |
| Johnny Cueto | 81.9 | 112.1 | 13.80% | 4.45 | 24.40% | |
| Nestor Cortes | 82.05 | 53.2 | 16.20% | 4.48 | 25.60% | |
| Jose Suarez | 82.7 | 55.1 | 11.70% | 4.51 | 27.80% | -8.4 |
| Josiah Gray | 83.35 | 44 | 11.70% | 4.9 | 27.70% | -4.2 |
| Eric Lauer | 83.4 | 84.1 | 13.60% | 4.48 | 25.20% | -0.7 |
| Alec Mills | 83.7 | 81.2 | 12.50% | 4.26 | 26.30% | -8 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 83.8 | 90.2 | 13.30% | 4.59 | 23.60% | 7 |
| Eli Morgan | 84.05 | 71.2 | 15.70% | 4.52 | 26.60% | -6.5 |
| Brad Keller | 84.05 | 133.2 | 9.10% | 4.84 | 25.40% | |
| Cal Quantrill | 84.3 | 101.2 | 12.90% | 4.48 | 24.90% | -2.3 |
| Kyle Muller | 84.8 | 35.2 | 10.80% | 4.91 | 28.50% | -6.5 |
| Chris Flexen | 85.3 | 156.2 | 11.30% | 4.7 | 23.70% | -1.1 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | 86.6 | 130 | 10.50% | 4.94 | 25.10% | |
| Kris Bubic | 87.1 | 78.1 | 10.00% | 4.81 | 26.60% | -4.1 |
| Erick Fedde | 87.35 | 117 | 13.10% | 4.37 | 24.60% | -5.9 |
| Brett Anderson | 88.35 | 88.1 | 8.00% | 4.35 | 24.00% | |
| Antonio Senzatela | 88.4 | 138 | 10.90% | 4.42 | 24.90% | -7.7 |
| Caleb Smith | 88.7 | 57 | 9.50% | 5.23 | 26.90% | |
| Chad Kuhl | 89.4 | 67 | 8.00% | 5.1 | 27.70% | -6.2 |
| Vladimir Gutierrez | 89.55 | 104.1 | 9.90% | 4.91 | 26.80% | -7.1 |
| Jordan Lyles | 89.6 | 142.2 | 11.40% | 4.8 | 25.90% | -10 |
| Kolby Allard | 90.15 | 91.2 | 12.40% | 4.7 | 25.60% | -5.6 |
| Cole Irvin | 90.45 | 158.1 | 11.10% | 4.83 | 24.70% | -5.9 |
| Vince Velasquez | 91.95 | 76.1 | 10.70% | 4.9 | 26.20% | -4.5 |
| Tony Gonsolin | 92 | 35.2 | 10.10% | 5.07 | 27.00% | -3.9 |
| Ranger Suarez | 92.2 | 37.2 | 13.00% | 4.2 | 24.60% | -4.8 |
| Matt Peacock | 93.85 | 34 | 7.70% | 4.58 | 27.20% | -8.6 |
| Mitch Keller | 94.3 | 83 | 11.10% | 4.74 | 24.60% | -3.3 |
| Michael King | 95.3 | 24.2 | 7.00% | 5.18 | 27.50% | -5.4 |
| Zach Thompson | 96.25 | 62.2 | 11.70% | 4.68 | 26.70% | -11.8 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 96.35 | 21.2 | 7.40% | 5.32 | 28.70% | -10.2 |
| Chase De Jong | 97 | 43.2 | 10.20% | 5.06 | 25.50% | |
| J.A. Happ | 97.1 | 132.2 | 10.30% | 5.01 | 22.60% | -2.4 |
| Tony Santillan | 97.9 | 16.2 | 12.20% | 4.75 | 25.80% | -5 |
| Justin Dunn | 98.25 | 50.1 | 9.20% | 5.18 | 25.40% | |
| Luis Patino | 98.45 | 55 | 12.30% | 4.79 | 25.50% | -6 |
| Garrett Richards | 98.5 | 110.1 | 7.70% | 5.03 | 24.70% | -4.4 |
| Jake Arrieta | 98.65 | 94.2 | 8.80% | 4.94 | 25.60% | -6.8 |
| Adrian Houser | 100 | 120.1 | 6.90% | 4.8 | 23.30% | -4.9 |
| Zach Davies | 100.1 | 141.2 | 6.20% | 5.32 | 26.00% | -10.5 |
| Taylor Widener | 100.9 | 61 | 11.70% | 4.81 | 26.30% | -11.6 |
| Josh Fleming | 101.35 | 56.1 | 7.60% | 4.69 | 24.00% | -3 |
| Matt Shoemaker | 101.55 | 50.2 | 5.60% | 5.36 | 25.70% | -1.3 |
| Luis Gil | 101.95 | 19 | 12.20% | 4.96 | 27.20% | -11.3 |
| Matt Harvey | 102.2 | 127.2 | 10.00% | 4.85 | 24.10% | -8.6 |
| Kohl Stewart | 103.45 | 12.2 | 8.60% | 4.8 | 24.10% | |
| Wil Crowe | 103.5 | 100.1 | 9.90% | 4.9 | 25.10% | -9.8 |
| Chi Chi Gonzalez | 104.9 | 87 | 6.50% | 5.31 | 23.50% | |
| Daniel Lynch | 105.05 | 57 | 8.50% | 5.09 | 25.70% | -7.8 |
| JC Mejia | 105.2 | 42.1 | 6.90% | 5.15 | 24.10% | |
| Griffin Jax | 105.5 | 51.2 | 9.30% | 5.18 | 26.90% | -12.6 |
| Ryan Weathers | 106.5 | 66.1 | 8.70% | 4.99 | 25.40% | -8.3 |
| Deivi Garcia | 106.9 | 8.1 | 7.90% | 5.65 | 28.10% | -12.4 |
| Keegan Akin | 107.45 | 67.2 | 8.00% | 5.26 | 25.90% | -9.9 |
| Aaron Sanchez | 108.4 | 30.1 | 9.80% | 4.56 | 25.40% | -11.8 |
| Jeff Hoffman | 108.6 | 45 | 4.30% | 5.7 | 25.60% | -4.3 |
| Hyeon-jong Yang | 109.15 | 15 | 7.50% | 5.2 | 24.10% | |
| Justus Sheffield | 110.55 | 73.2 | 6.90% | 5.16 | 25.30% | -9.8 |
| John Gant | 111.05 | 82 | 3.60% | 5.65 | 25.70% | -9.6 |
| Lewis Thorpe | 111.85 | 14.1 | -3.20% | 6.28 | 24.90% | |
| Carlos Martinez | 112.35 | 82.1 | 5.80% | 5.18 | 25.70% | -15 |
| Jon Lester | 112.5 | 119.1 | 4.50% | 5.47 | 23.70% | -7.9 |
| Matt Moore | 113.7 | 56.1 | 6.80% | 5.36 | 25.00% | -7.5 |
| Dean Kremer | 113.75 | 53.2 | 9.00% | 5.22 | 23.60% | -5.6 |
| Kohei Arihara | 114.65 | 36.2 | 6.40% | 5.35 | 25.40% | -7.9 |
| Johan Oviedo | 115.75 | 57.2 | 4.40% | 5.49 | 26.20% | -14 |
| Bryse Wilson | 117.05 | 64.2 | 8.20% | 5.18 | 24.60% | -12.1 |
| Edward Cabrera | 117.55 | 12.2 | -3.70% | 6.34 | 24.00% | -1.3 |
| Jake Woodford | 118.4 | 17.2 | 11.10% | 4.74 | 24.20% | -13.5 |
| Chase Anderson | 119.2 | 36.1 | 6.00% | 5.48 | 25.90% | -14.7 |
| Wily Peralta | 120.1 | 68.2 | 5.80% | 5.11 | 24.20% | -14 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 120.3 | 49.1 | 7.70% | 5.21 | 23.30% | -8.4 |
| Matt Manning | 120.7 | 66 | 6.00% | 5.34 | 24.30% | -11.1 |
| Sam Hentges | 121.05 | 41 | 4.50% | 5.59 | 24.90% | -9.9 |
| Logan Allen | 121.85 | 40.2 | 6.70% | 5.22 | 23.90% | -9.8 |
| Randy Dobnak | 123.1 | 34.1 | 3.30% | 4.81 | 20.90% | -10.6 |
| Riley Smith | 123.1 | 25 | 1.70% | 5.9 | 24.10% | -7 |
| Jose Urena | 123.15 | 83 | 4.50% | 5.23 | 23.50% | -13.3 |
| Tyler Gilbert | 125.2 | 31 | 6.50% | 5.37 | 23.60% | -9.2 |
| Jon Duplantier | 125.75 | 13 | 5.70% | 5.3 | 24.40% | -10.9 |
| Thomas Eshelman | 127 | 18.1 | -2.30% | 6.87 | 25.60% | -19.6 |
| Spenser Watkins | 129.9 | 46 | 7.00% | 5.33 | 22.80% | -15 |
| Daniel Castano | 131.95 | 17.1 | 3.80% | 5.63 | 22.10% | -10.2 |
| Seth Frankoff | 136.55 | 13.2 | 2.90% | 5.69 | 19.80% | -13.3 |
| Joe Ryan |
Aye, you made it this far, didn’t ya. EverywhereBlair is, well, located at home right now. He’s a historian and lover of prog-metal. He enjoys a good sipping rum. When he’s not churning data and making fan fiction about Grey and Donkey Teeth, you can find him dreaming of shirtless pictures of Lance Lynn on Twitter @Everywhereblair.
