The top 20 1st basemen for 2021 fantasy baseball are fascinating, at least according to early ADP. There’s some top guys to draft, a few, at least. But, unlike past years, there’s also quite a few 1st basemen to draft after the top 100. Usually I’d scream at you in the most shrill of voices that if you didn’t have a top five 1st baseman you were going to lose your league. I’m not against drafting one of those top guys, but there’s also quite a few later 1st basemen that I could see getting hip wit’. It’s wit’ because it’s hip, get it? Here’s Steamer’s 2021 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2021 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers.  All projections included here are mine, and where I see tiers starting and stopping are included. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2021 fantasy baseball:

NOTE: All 2021 fantasy baseball projections are based on a 162-game season, and will be until we hear definitively there will be less games.

NOTE II: All my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.

NOTE III: Free agents outside the top 100 are not yet written up or projected. They are approximately ranked, obviously subject to change.

1. Cody Bellinger – Already went over him in the top 10 for 2021 fantasy baseball.

2. Freddie Freeman – Already went over him in the top 20 for 2021 fantasy baseball.

3. Jose Abreu – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Olson. I call this tier, “E plurbus n’ one!” This tier is you being extra, and talking some extremely po’ latin. Or simply extrapolatin’.  This is a problem for a lot of the tiers in all the rankings. People see a 50 to 60-game season’s worth of stats, and extrapolate that out to a full season, when I’m not even sure some of you can figure out how many times to multiple a number to take a home run total from 60 games to 162 games. This tier is filled with guys who for whatever reason that I can’t figure out are being hurt by your extrapolatin’. As for Abreu, his numbers extra po’ latin’d out makes him a 120/50/160/.320 hitter. That would be nice. You don’t buy that? Then why are y’all so quick to believe Luke Voit? You believe a breakout but not a superstar just finding another level? Okay, then why is LeMahieu being drafted so much higher this year than last? LeMahieu was continuing from 2019? What if I told you Abreu was too? Abreu’s breakout started in August of the previous year:  11 HRs, .324 in 216 at-bats in the final two months. Of course, he wasn’t bad prior to that, but that was the point it really seemed to click for him to hit homers and .300-plus. There could be a small buying opportunity with Abreu this year. For whatever reason, some guys are extra po’ latin’ out guys and scared like with Abreu, and other times they’re carpe Dom Smith. 2021 Projections: 102/34/114/.294/1 in 609 ABs

4. Pete Alonso – Am I. Dot dot dot. A Pete Alonso stan? Is this what that feels like? I do randomly yell out “Albombso!” when in the throes of passion, and my ‘throes of passion’ are watching Albombso, so, I guess, interjection, I do stan. I stan hard. But let’s just say last season wasn’t a WAP (weird ass playing) and he’s a…*doing math in head*…he prorates to a 45-homer guy last year, after a 53-homer rookie year. That’s with him struggling for almost the entire season last year. He’s a neutral luck 45-homer guy. That’s bad or, and bear with me here, nah? Is the hate on Albombso about his average? Fine. Let’s break that down. He hit .231 last year with a .242 BABIP and his K% actually came down from the year before when he hit .260. He did hit the ball slightly less hard last year, not quite barreling like he had. He still led the league in MaxEV at 118.4 MPH. You shouldn’t be worried about him hitting the ball hard. That shizz will even out over a 6-month season. On Statcast’s similar player list for Albombso: Acuña in 2019, Soler in 2019, Mitch Garver in 2019 and Albombso is a 45-homer hitter, and that’s realistic vs. some kind of ceiling hopes-and-dreams. Stop making him Albombso non grata. 2021 Projections: 95/45/108/.249/1 in 584 ABs

5. Matt Olson – This year feels like a free money year. Everyone overplaying what happened in 2020 like it wasn’t some kind of black swan event. Not to get too philosophical here, but just because something just happened it doesn’t mean it will happen again. We’re ranking and drafting for 2021. Mean’swhile, you’re extrapolatin’, ergo drafting for the goofy 2020 year. In 2021, Olson’s contact rates can morph right back to where they were prior to last year and we can forget he hit .154 on breaking pitches, when he usually hits about 70 points higher. He still had a top 10% exit velocity and batted ball profile that looked like every other season. If last year were 162 games, I would’ve told everyone to buy Olson 60 games in, ad nauseam without a caveat emptor because he’s bona fide. 2021 Projections: 88/39/102/.246/1 in 571 ABs

6. DJ LeMahieu – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Vlad Jr. I call this tier, “Mow Better Blues.” This is a new tier because I ran out of Latin phrases to hack up. I kid. Kinda. This whole post and all rankings this year are variations of the extrapolatin’. It’s difficult to know what anyone is going to do after a two-month season. I agree. That’s why I keep sayin’ it! By the tier name, I mean I am just laying down some hedges so I opened a company named Mow Better Blues. Here’s where we’re at with this tier. I’ve drafted a 1st baseman already (hopefully), and don’t need another one, or I’m drafting my 1st starter around this time. Could there be a one in hundred situation where I’m without a 1st baseman, have taken a starter and one of the 1st basemen in this tier fell and I can pick him up with my Life Alert? I guess. Most likely it’s Vlad, if any of them. It’s just not realistic to think I’m owning one of the Yankees in this tier, based on their early ADP. As for LeMahieu, he can hit 20 homers and .310. I just don’t value a high average as much as some. You need around a .270 average in your league. Does a .320 average from one guy help own guys like Gallo? Sure, but if you’re worried you can’t hit a .270-ish average, just don’t draft a Gallo type. Plus, if you really need a high average, there’s cheaper options. 2021 Projections: 112/20/74/.312/6 in 604 ABs

7. Luke Voit – Steamer is projecting Voit for 31 homers and a .251 average. For as high as he’s going, someone is going to be very wrong. Luckily, I have a way to project him. He hit 21 homers in 2019, and 22 homers last year. He’s going to hit 23 homers this year! C’mon, it’s obvious! No? Okay, I don’t know what to do with Voit either. He did have a 34.9% HR/FB last year, which may not be a new world record, but it would be hard for him to repeat that. If he does repeat it, it would mean he’s hitting 59 homers this year. So, I guess, possible, but ‘likely’ is on a train out of the station. 2021 Projections: 94/33/104/.268 in 569 ABs

8. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – This guy’s hedges clip themselves:  Vladdy the Mini Impaler had a top 7% exit velocity last year, but only a .263 xBA. His strikeouts went down, but his contact went down. His HR/FB% went up, but his Launch Angle is hideous, and he’s hitting way too many ground balls to seem like a legit 30-homer threat. Though, his talent, like his backside, is immense. 2021 Projections: 86/24/94/.292/3 in 584 ABs

9. Max Muncy – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Moustakas. I call this tier, “A Limited Edition, Premium Subaru.” For whatever reason, the guys in this tier are cast off, generating very little interest, even though they all have track records of success. This tier is guys who are not flashy. When you pick one of these guys, they don’t have virtual balloons fall in your draft room. No one stops the draft and proposes that now is a good time to pop the champagne. No one takes their friends out to see their brand new Subaru, even if it has the bells and whistles like electric windows. It’s dependable, is that not enough? As for Muncy, people are extrapolatin’ again in the weirdest of ways. Muncy was playing last year with a fractured finger, and was still on pace for 35 homers, as he does every year. Yet, he fell sixty spots in ADP from last year to this year. Why? That’s the question I’m asking! 2021 Projections: 88/34/94/.246/3 in 531 ABs

10. Paul Goldschmidt –  True story alert! I had Au Shizz down in the Dom Smith tier, as guys I’m just ignoring, but then I looked at his stats, and I moved him way up. I said true story, I never said interesting. I think I fell prey to what is happening with a lot of rankings this year. People just out here assuming a guy is done because he had a less than ideal 2020. Who didn’t have a less than ideal 2020? Can you name one person? 2021 Projections: 91/29/96/.271/2 in 571 ABs

11. Eric Hosmer – Already gave you my Eric Hosmer sleeper. It had two pieces of toast and was like, “Let’s jam!” 2021 Projections: 83/29/94/.283/8 in 591 ABs

12. Anthony Rizzo – Again, I don’t get anything that is going on with early drafts. I get the Voit attraction. He has upside. Rizzo’s upside checked out of the hotel three days ago and is being hunted by a Scandinavian detective. But put a grain of salt on this morsel of infotainment:  Rizzo’s Steamer projections are 31/6/.270. Crazy or exactly what he was on pace for last year and does every single year? Hint:  He does it every year. Also, here’s new writer, Torres, with his Anthony Rizzo fantasy. 2021 Projections: 86/29/89/.267/5 in 541 ABs

13. Mike Moustakas – Unlike Muncy and Rizzo, I can see a little more trepidation with Moistasskiss, because he could be the kind of guy who can age into a 27-homer, .235 hitter, and he’s just about at that age. I’d draft him, but I’d also be hoping for that one last solid year, which is never ideal. You don’t want to be the last one holding the Hot Moistpotatokiss. 2021 Projections: 73/32/87/.236/3 in 537 ABs

14. Alec Bohm – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Walsh. I call this tier, “Christopher Cross’s Ride Like the Wind.” This tier is pure joy. Just ride, ride like the wind. Christopher Cross and I insist. By the way, you think he ever went by Chris Cross and wore his clothes backwards? As for Bohm, this is a trust fall more than anything. He hit four homers last year or the same number Hard Hittin’ Mark Whiten be hittin’ in one game. There’s a large gap with funk banned between what Bohm could drop on me. Anywhere from under-15 homers to over 30 homers. The bright side of Bohm is the rebuilding of property value with his easy-.280-ish average and handful of steals that he should chuck in. Wouldn’t put money on it happening in 2021, but Bohm could be 35/10/.300 within two years. 2021 Projections: 88/22/81/.289/5 in 581 ABs

15. Miguel Sano – Activity for you:  Look at Sano’s projections and Hoskins’s and try to wrap your noodle around why Hoskins is being drafted 50 spots before Sano. 2021 Projections: 74/37/89/.231 in 541 ABs

16. Jared Walsh –  Already gave you a Jared Walsh sleeper. It pushed its Capri Sun straw straight through so I was sucking air.  2021 Projections: 79/24/71/.281/1 in 487 ABs

17. Dominic Smith – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Bell. I call this tier, “Some ancient Italian maxim fits our situation, whose particulars escape me.” These guys have just got me totally confused much like E.B. Farnum, who uttered the phrase which this tier is named. I do not understand the love for Dom Smith at all. I kinda want to read someone else’s take on him who likes him, and I haven’t read anyone else’s take on anyone in ten years, and it’s been even longer since someone else changed my mind. Speaking of which, have y’all lost your minds? I know I’m not alone by looking at Steamer’s projections for him: 23 HRs, .252, 3 SBs, and wondering WHAT IS GOING ON? How is he being drafted in the top eight 1st basemen and above Albombso in some instances? People are expecting him to hit thirty homers and .315, essentially prorating his 50 games in 2020 out to 150 games? Why though? Fifty games is really playing havoc on some people’s ability to extrapolate 50 games into 162 games. Even in the minors, Dom Smith never hit 20 homers, and he had some seasons not that long ago where he had a lot of looks. I’ll admit Steamer’s .252 projected average looks low, but he had 16 homers in 114 games in Triple-A in as recently as 2017, and 14 homers in 130 games in Double-A. I guess he could hit 30, but, wow, some of you are taking a leap of faith. Guess that tracks with Dom’s Jesus arm tattoo. 2021 Projections: 77/20/82/.281/1 in 512 ABs

18. Yasmani Grandal – Already went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2021 fantasy baseball.

19. Ryan Mountcastle – Already gave you my Ryan Mountcastle fantasy. It was written while wearing an old-timey leather football helmet. 2021 Projections: 67/21/74/.279/3 in 512 ABs

20. Rhys Hoskins – “He’s only (fill-in age) so maybe he still can break out,” which is what is said every year for Hoskins. He’s going to be 35 years old and we’re going to be saying the same about his potential for a breakout. 2021 Projections: 71/29/82/.229/3 in 489 ABs

21. Josh Bell –  Here’s what I said this offseason, “So, Josh Bell was traded to the Nats, conspicuously within minutes of, well, we know what happened here. The Pirates’ payroll needed to be slashed after the House was unable to increase the stimulus checks to $2,000. Now that Josh Bell is in Washington there’s only one thing can we can be certain of:  confirmed Josh Bell 2021 All-Star. Could see Josh Bell out-pitching even Tyler Glasnow. If he wants to, of course. He might just want to hit. So, getting out of Pittsburgh can’t hurt anyone. He’s also coming off one of the boringiest (totally a word!) 1st baseman seasons. How’sever, if 2019 was only two months long, Josh Bell would’ve been a top 20 overall player last year. What’s my point? Meh, don’t really have one, but Josh Bell was hurt by last year’s small sample, and hurt by 2019’s, uh, long sample. Who is Josh Bell in Washington? A better question might be how long is this season going to be and when will it start? Josh Bell is prolly somewhere between the two extremes of his 1st few months of 2019, and his 2020.” And that’s me quoting me! 2021 Projections: 73/26/81/.257/1 in 512 ABs

22. Christian Walker – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Jeimer. I call this tier, “Just before putting an oxygen mask on a freediver.” Not sure how many of you saw the Netflix documentary about freedivers. The gist is they dive down a couple hundred football fields into the deep, dark blue with no oxygen mask, then glide back up, underwater for, like, ten minutes. Ya know, normal shizz you do at the Y. Well, if they fail to make it to the surface of the water, a diver hurries down and puts a mask on them. Their last gasp. This is the last gasp for 1st basemen. As for Walker, things out of his control causes him to have a whiff of yesterday’s news, i.e., he’s going to be 30 years old when the season starts and he only has one full year in the majors (plus whatever last year was). He spent a bunch of productive years in the minors behind Chris Davis in Baltimore and Au Shizz in Arizona. Sucks for him, and really says so much about how broken MLB is that he’ll be a free agent for the first time when he’s 34 years old. Like anyone’s paying him then. Any hoo! His 1st year produced a 29/8/.259 year, and most things are pointing to a year just a tad off that. Will depend on how much his 2020 Launch Angle and lack of fly balls sees itself into 2021. 2021 Projections: 81/24/88/.265/5 in 537 ABs

23. Hunter Dozier – Goes together with Walker in every way like peas and carrots and pees and poops. Only difference is Dozier moved in an opposite direction with his Launch Angle and is a threat for more homers, but a lower average. 2021 Projections: 71/27/81/.249/5 in 551 ABs

24. Jake Cronenworth –  Already gave you my Jake Cronenworth sleeper. It was written while feeding a little birdie in my shirt pocket. Sadly, due to the signing of Ha-Seong Kim, the Padres’ infield got crowded and now I fear for Cronenworth’s at-bats, but don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater just yet. It wasn’t that long ago the Yankees signed LeMahieu and everyone was worried there was no room for him to play because of too many infield bats. Good bats like Cronenworth will find at-bats, and this is more mentions of bats than a wet market. I did, however, remove 100 at-bats from my sleeper post projections. 2021 Projections: 61/12/67/.298/12 in 441 ABs

25. Rowdy Tellez – Already gave you my Rowdy Tellez sleeper. So, Michael Brantley was briefly on the Jays, and it threw my Tellez sleeper in disarray, and I started crying on our Patreon, and reranked Tellez and, well, Brantley ended up signing with the Astros, but it did teach me a valuable lesson, and one I want to pass on to you, if the Jays sign one more hitter, this Tellez ranking is dropping. UPDATE: With the Semien signing, I’ve lowered Tellez’s ranking, and projections. 2021 Projections: 70/21/73/.287/2 in 406 ABs

26. Trey Mancini – I’m rooting for Mancini to the tune of The Pink Panther Theme. F*ck cancer. We can all agree on that, right? Someone out there is seriously not agreeing with it and debating if they should say anything. You don’t have to express your opinion when your opinion is wrong. Too busy f*cking diabetes to f*ck cancer? Fine, but when you’re done with diabetes, bend cancer over the couch and eff it. No, no, no, don’t call it by its name or say you will call it back. Just take cancer by its hair because, again, eff cancer. But do I trust Mancini to return to previous glory? Not at all, but at this price, I’d take the chance. 2021 Projections: 68/21/74/.266/1 in 457 ABs

27. Jeimer Candelario – Had his ideal two-month stretch last year. That Idealario, so to speak, was still only 7 HRs, 1 SB and a .297 average. He did cut his Ks, and some juicy HardHit% numbers, so I’m willing to take a flyer. A Flymer? Hmm, maybe not that. 2021 Projections: 71/23/82/.263/3 in 553 ABs

28. Bobby Dalbec – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Aguilar. I call this tier, “A poor man’s…” The tier name will become obvious shortly. One of the biggest debuts of 2020 was by Bobby Dalbec. Too bad it was fueled by a 44.4% HR/FB, and hid a 42.4% K%. One of the biggest debuts of recent years that led to unrealistic expectations was, well…Dalbec is a poor man’s Rhys Hoskins. I will call him, 1996 Chevrolet Cap-Rhys Hoskins. 2021 Projections: 61/27/68/.228/3 in 518 ABs

29. Yuli Gurriel –  A poor man’s Bohm with only downside. I will call him, Wet Fartiel. 2021 Projections: 70/21/83/.271/2 in 531 ABs

30. Evan White – A poor man’s Gurriel with upside. I will call him A May-to-Yuli Romance. 2021 Projections: 62/21/71/.251/3 in 551 ABs

31. Jesus Aguilar – A poor man’s Max Muncy. I will call him Minimum Muncy. 2021 Projections: 71/25/81/.241 in 512 ABs

32. Ryan McMahon – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Nunez. I call this tier, “Stop judging me.” The tier name is me talking to my reflection, who is judging me for liking these guys a bit too much. This tier is supposedly about upside vs. projections and, prolly, reality. This tier is also the last glimmer of hope in this post, and only another 2,000 words to go! As for McMahon, I see some roster, uh, resources putting him in a platoon, but, if I know anything about Bud Black, McMahon will be given every opportunity to fail while Garrett Hampson gets every chance to collect batting gloves and sweep up sunflower seeds while cheering from the dugout. On the bright side about McMahon, he increased his Launch Angle, and now he might only be a 50% ground ball rate guy. Lowercase yay!  2021 Projections: 67/22/75/.245/3 in 477 ABs

33. Tommy La Stella – Signed with the Giants. Will this be the end of Tommy Launch Angle Stella? Will he still-a be Stella? Will I ask a third question somewhat unrelated? No, yes, YES! 2021 Projections: 62/18/71/.284/1 in 438 ABs

34. Renato Nunez – Signed with the Tigers. Woo hoo! First signing by a team that actually adds fantasy value. Okay, small exaggeration, but Nunez went from unsigned to a potential 30-homer hitter going after the top 300 overall. Appropriately, Renato sounds like a male boat race, and I’m all aboard. 2021 Projections: 60/27/70/.246 in 401 ABs

35. Brandon Belt – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Brosseau. I call this tier, “Don’t enlist, guys, you wouldn’t work in a platoon.” This tier is guys who are either in a platoon, or should be, and less than ideal either way. As for Belt, it’s pretty remarkable how every year (I think every year, but I’m only remembering what I want with a strong confirmation bias and a whisky back) Steamer and others give Belt 20-homer projections, and he hasn’t done it in eleven years of pro ball, and nine of those are in the majors. Christian Walker couldn’t sniff the majors for seven years, and Belt should still be in the minors, and would for some teams. We should have a glossary term for guys who projections systems love no matter what they ever do. Please suggest in the comments. 2021 Projections: 58/16/63/.262/3 in 441 ABs

36. Carlos Santana – Here’s what I said when he signed with the Royals, “Fitting since Wal-Mart is the only ones still selling Carlos Santana CDs. The Royals unable to sell their broom with cheese, the McBroom, decide to move on. This might cause a little problem for my Franchy Cordero sleeper. I hope it doesn’t, but are The Ryans (O’Hearn/McBroom) just done? Franchy has a much better glove, and they already threw away one Happy Meal in McBroom, they’re not going to discard all of Franchy’s flies now too, are they? Any hoo! Carlos Santana! Right! Um, you know him.” And that’s me quoting me! 2021 Projections: 76/24/81/.231/2 in 521 ABs

37. C.J. Cron – Signed with the Rockies. This is exactly the type of guy Bud Black might play for 500 at-bats while prospblocking all young hitters, but the Rockies are such a mess at this point, I’m not even sure they have any young hitters to prospblock. Josh Fuentes doesn’t really count. Plus, Fuentes is finding out what happens when you get a job through nepotism and your relative no longer works for the company. Call it the Dale Berra Rule. 2021 Projections: 64/26/72/.249 in 444 ABs

38. Joey Votto – Baseball is a very humbling sport. Votto went from one of the best hitters in the game to arguably the worst number three hitter. 2021 Projections: 72/16/77/.254/2 in 531 ABs

39. Colin Moran – Hold the phone, Mr. Joey Votto Is The Worst Three-Hole Hitter In Baseball, the Pirates could be platooning their three-hole hitters. On a side, but related note, if your favorite team is platooning their three-hole hitters, they stopped trying. 2021 Projections: 51/17/62/.257 in 461 ABs

40. Nate Lowe – Here’s what I said when he was traded to the Rangers, “The Rangers are one of the worst organizations with developing talent and the Rays are one of the best. The Rangers are one of the worst teams to scout talent and the Rays are the best. What I am saying is, Nate Lowe will be a franchise player in under three years. That franchise will be a Wendy’s. I can remember fondly when Nate Lowe was a coveted prospect, it feels like yesterday, because it was. As for the piece the Rays got, Heriberto Hernandez? I looked into my crystal ball and he’s the top catcher in baseball in two years. I guess the Rays had Lowes for days and none of them are pronounced the same, so that was confusing, and Nate needed to be moved, or he really is never going to develop. This will allow Lowe to get more at-bats in 2021, but now I’m worried about what they’ll look like.” And that’s me quoting me! Also, I go over him in the video at the top of the post. 2021 Projections: 56/18/54/.248/1 in 402 ABs

41. Seth Brown – With major arm-twisting and lots of hemming and/or hawing, I added Seth Brown into the top 20 1st basemen that is pushing a top 60. After Khris Davis was traded and Seth Brown appeared, well, I wrote a sleeper post for him last year, how could I not dip my big toe back in the Brown water? *grimaces* That came out wrong. Which is how we ended up with Brown water! Somebody stop me! Seriously, I want to be stopped. Seth Brown hit 37 HRs in Triple-A in 2019, and might have a 35+% strikeout rate with a .190 average. I’m interested very late, but he will be platooned, at least early on. 2021 Projections: 42/17/49/.211/2 in 388 ABs

41. Danny Santana – Signed with the Red Sox. He should act as a utility man in Boston, i.e., Dannys Antana is a floater, in every sense of the word. 2021 Projections: 50/14/54/.230/11 in 376 ABs

42. Ji-Man Choi – This guy has some of the more extreme splits in the game, and I’m not talking about how well he hits righties vs. lefties. *Groucho Marx removes cigar, wiggles eyebrows* 2021 Projections: 51/15/58/.266/1 in 402 ABs

43. Ronald Guzman – There was a moment — Maybe it was last year; I’m not sure, because 2020 was 48 months long. — I liked Ronald Guzman. At this point, due to age or the sheer length of 2020, I cannot remember why I liked him. All I know is I find it hilarious he was on pace for his best power year (through only 26 games), and somehow his Launch Angle went from 14.5 to 6. Basically, an uppercut swing to a lying on a hospital bed and rolling the bat towards the pitch. Get back on a Murphy bed, you schmohawk! (Honestly don’t know if this metaphor makes sense, but the thought of someone sitting in bed, rolling their bat towards a pitch, made me laugh.) 2021 Projections: 47/15/54/.252/1 in 402 ABs

44. Wilmer Flores – Are you as fascinated as I am about the guys who keep getting jobs for seemingly no reason? Wilmer’s made a career out of being pretty meh. Mean’s while, a guy like Domingo Santana has had top 20 OF years, but, at 28 years old, he had to go to Japan for a job. Guess what I’m saying is maybe we should all cry a little bit more. By the way, I was today years old when I realized the Yakult Swallows weren’t named after birds. Yakult is a beverage. That is hilarious to me (and maybe just me). It would be like calling a team, the Taco Bell Farts. 2021 Projections: 41/17/48/.258/1 in 329 ABs

45. Jake Bauers – A great place to find fantasy value is on a guy on a cheap eh-eff team who is pencilled into a starting job. Would be even greater if I had real hope for the player and he hadn’t failed us roughly three years running, and didn’t even get any looks last year — did he opt out? Serious question, I couldn’t find anything on Bauers, which is a terrific sign! Time is running out for Jake Bauers. Pun duly noted. 2021 Projections: 43/14/47/.232/8 in 352 ABs

46. Andrew Vaughn – I have serious doubts about Vaughn’s playing time this year, but I can convince myself of anything! Also, already gave you my Andrew Vaughn fantasy. It was originally written on a bow, then shot into an apple. 2021 Projections: 39/14/48/.277 in 334 ABs

47. Asdrubal Cabrera – Signed with the Diamondbacks. There should be some kind of MLB rule where if you haven’t spent at least $50 million in the offseason, you can’t sign any everyday players to one-year deals under three million dollars. If you’re not going to compete, you have to play prospects. Sorry, I don’t make the rules (I do make the rules). Any hoo! You know Asdrubal; this moves Ketel to the outfield on some (most?) days, and this hurts Daulton Varsho and Josh Rojas. 2021 Projections: 41/13/39/.244/1 in 354 ABs

48. Mitch Moreland – Signed with the A’s. I just added Seth Brown into the rankings, and the Rankings Gods, the Gods that you find in long-flowing robes because they were too lazy to do a wash and have no clean clothes, smite me and Seth Brown once again. See everything I said for Seth Brown above and ignore it. He was removed from the rankings once again. 2021 Projections: 50/21/57/.240 in 333 ABs

49. Mike Brosseau – Kinda wanna just call this guy, “Whoa,” because that’s what Brosseau. However, during the playoffs, I learned you don’t say his name a’la “Bros say.” Then again, that never stopped me from a nickname before. 2021 Projections: 34/10/36/.271 in 264 ABs

50. Lewin Diaz – This is the final tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the list. I call this tier, “Odds, ends and Pujols.” As for Lewin, here’s what Prospect Itch said, “Big league pitchers got inside on Lewin Diaz a lot this year, and he didn’t get much time to adjust to the MLB rhythms. A 6’4” lefty who used to be a bit on the softer side, Diaz has slimmed down over the past few seasons, unlocking improved bat speed and defensive mobility. His glove was already a strength, and while he hasn’t hit well since the Marlins acquired him, he’s still the first baseman of the future, and he’s still a guy who posted a 157 wRC+ for Minnesota’s AA team in 2019, striking out just 16.7 percent of the time across 138 plate appearances there. That kind of contact-skill in a power bat is rare, so the arrows are still pointing up for Diaz regardless of a rough 14 games in the majors. Point of information: I’m working to disregard most bad debuts, especially brief ones from guys who didn’t get any game action to prepare, and, as always, disregard Grey.” C’mon, man! My thoughts on Diaz are that he’s going to replace or platoon with Aguilar at some point, and it could be April or September. 2021 Projections: 18/6/23/.254 in 144 ABs

51. Michael Chavis – Hey, it’s Chavis, my previously mentioned whisky back from the Belt blurb. He could be pencilled into the three-hole on Opening Day, and I wouldn’t buy Chavis for 550+ at-bats or a solid season. (By the way, more three-hole talk recently than the subreddit for ear fetishists.) UPDATE: With the signing of Enrique Hernandez, Chavis might be out of a job. Honestly, his hitting alone should’ve knocked him out of a job. 2021 Projections: 31/11/35/.222/1 in 254 ABs

52. Marwin Gonzalez – Signed with the Red Sox. He always seems to get at-bats no matter how unlikely it appears in the preseason. This is not a compliment to him or the teams playing him. 2021 Projections: 32/12/40/.257/2 in 271 ABs

53. Garrett Cooper – He just turned thirty and hasn’t hit more than 17 homers in any level of pro ball dating back to 2013. Maybe, and hear me out here, Cooper isn’t super duper. Then again, oh my God, I can’t stop myself, maybe Cooper is super duper. Super and/or duper? Explain yourself, please! UPDATE: With Duvall signing, Cooper was bumped down., i.e., Cooper = Still not super duper. 2021 Projections: 31/10/33/.277 in 287 ABs

54. Josh Fuentes – Every time I think to myself, “There’s no way the Rockies play a 40-grade bat at 1st base for 500 ABs,” I’m reminded: Bud Black, and the time they benched all their 50+ grade prospects to play Ian Desmond for 160 games. 2021 Projections: 41/14/47/.238/2 in 377 ABs

55. Edwin Rios – This guy’s small sample is gorgeous — that’s what she never said! — and the Dodgers make a vase of roses out of the most unlikely guys with nothing but two lips. Chris Taylor on the Pirates is Adam Frazier with no power, and Adam Frazier already has no power. But does Edwin Rios is really see playing time? Prolly not, but for this experiment, I’m going to say absolutely. If the Dodgers re-sign Turner, Rios’s ranking will plummet. UPDATE: Dodgers re-signed Turner, and Edwin took the L. 2021 Projections: 28/8/27/.266/1 in 191 ABs

56. Albert Pujols – Will be interesting to see how well Pujols plays in his contract year. Though, I could see the Angels locking him up for another ten years. I hear the union guys in the TV playback booth are glad Pujols will be retiring after this year, because he’s been making their job seem obsolete. “Should we go to the slo-mo?” “Nah, Pujols is running.” 2021 Projections: 38/14/44/.231 in 302 ABs

 
  1. Harley Earl says:
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    Just wondering Grey,

    Are you completely confident in Jose Abreu for 2021 or does his age give you any concern at all? Also, do you think 2018 was basically his floor? I don’t know what to think about him. If he didn’t have that mediocre season in 2018, I’d be all about Abreu as a top 3-4 first baseman. That year just scares me off of him for the early rounds. What do you think? You’re sure he’s going to rake this year?

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      Why does one down year out of 7 give you pause?

      • Harley Earl says:
        (link)

        Good point Cram It. And I don’t have a good answer.

        Maybe I’m just a wuss and want a “guaranteed” thing even though nothing is guaranteed. The one year I drafted Jason Verlander really high a few years ago was the worst year he’s had in the last decade. I’m still haunted by it.

        I guess the best way to explain my sentiment is I just try to avoid any type of risk at the top of the draft.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’m confident in him

      • There is a certain comfort level with Jose, especially this year. Lots of optimism with all the incredible additions in Chicago, ChiSox looking like they’re for real. Abreu is the veteran LaRussa will count on for steady production and leadership. Could a career year be in the making?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Even if not a career year, could easily have 32/110/.290, which is well worth price

      • Harley Earl says:
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        Thank you Grey.

        You guys are probably right. There’s really no reason not to be confident in him. But I’ll only grab him if he’s absolutely the best available. I fear the age-monster.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I hear ya

  2. Ante GALIC says:
    (link)

    Grey!!!

    Supremely relevant and so good top 20 1st base report!

    a. Grey, Hoskins before Sano because he white and Sano had that kidnapping scam last season that he can’t shake! Sano going after Soler too and both are due for about 35/.270. Maybe Soler hits for a higher average but little difference between them.

    b. Wow what a list. Thank you for making sense out of 2020 now more than ever!

    c. MLB quote of the day for January 21, 2021 (btw it’s 21/01/21 in Europe!)

    1. Mike Krukow, born January 21, 1952

    ‘On the love meter, as far as the fans are concerned, they’re (Mike Krukow & Duane Kuiper) totally off the charts. They just really resonate because they played, and then they stayed, with the organization. The fans don’t just respect them and enjoy them for their play-by-play and color accounts. It’s more than that. At various points throughout their time broadcasting with us, we’ve had situations where the team didn’t have stars or popular players, and they were as popular as any of the people in uniform.’

    San Francisco Giants President Larry Baer (12/24/2010, ‘Mike Krukow, Duane Kuiper to get extensions’, Source)

    2. Johnny Oates, born January 21, 1946

    ‘The biggest thrill was that I was able to put on a major league uniform for thirty years and to know the players I played with and against. I often have said that my biggest disappointment was that I didn’t enjoy it more while I was doing it. I should have enjoyed it more. I had a career that many wanted to have, but I let too many things bother me.’

    Johnny Oates in the Baptist Standard (Toby Druin, 09/03/2001)

    3. Andy Hawkins, born January 21, 1960

    ‘I don’t know. I’m stunned. I really am. You dream of throwing a no-hitter. The thought of a loss never crossed my mind. You expect to walk off that field and shake everybody’s hand like you’ve seen a thousand times before.’

    Andy Hawkins in the Tyrone Daily Herald (UPI, ‘Quotable”, 07/02/1990, Page 4)

    4. Brandon Crawford, born January 21, 1987

    ‘That’s definitely the biggest one (grand slam) I’ve ever hit at any level. It’s tough to put it into words, but anytime you can help your team win a game and advance in the postseason, that’s why you play the game. Nights like this are why we play the game.’

    Brandon Crawford (Paul Casella, October 2nd, 2014, ‘Crawford sparks Giants with first playoff slam by shortstop,’, Source)

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • VinWins

      VinWins says:
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      The story behind the Andy Hawkins quote, from Wikipedia:

      On July 1, 1990, Hawkins started against the Chicago White Sox at Comiskey Park. He dominated the White Sox into the eighth inning, retiring the first two batters before Sammy Sosa reached on a fielding error by Yankees third baseman Mike Blowers. After Hawkins loaded the bases by walking the next two batters, Robin Ventura lofted a fly ball to left field. Rookie Jim Leyritz, fighting a blustery wind, had the ball glance off his glove for an error, allowing all three baserunners to score. The next batter, Ivan Calderón, hit a high fly ball to right field, which Jesse Barfield lost in the sun, dropping it for another error, allowing Ventura to score. The Yankees could not score in the ninth, giving Hawkins the loss despite not allowing a hit.

      In his next appearance on July 6, he faced the Minnesota Twins at Yankee Stadium in the opening game of a doubleheader. Hawkins pitched a shutout into the twelfth inning but wound up losing 2–0.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        A shutout into the 12th inning the game after? Wow

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks!

      A. Hmmmmmm

      B. Ha, No problem

      C. For some reason I can clearly remember a Johnny Oates card I had, I think it was Topps 81…I need to have my mom send me my card collection

  3. CardFan says:
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    Look forward to reading these first thing in the morning! Where do you find free agent projections? Also, will the Cardinals sign Wainwright or Molina or both?

  4. Steve-o says:
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    Term for player projected to do well every year regardless of performance is a FORECASTOFF

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nice! That’s pretty solid, will put it on the list

  5. Michael says:
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    As always, amazing work and the site that I look forward to every January when rankings start to come out. Question about keepers for next year, as I have a boat load that feel “on the cusp” and only a couple who seem like a sure lock for me. Regular 5×5 except it’s OPS not AVG. $260 auction. For reference, the top 3 for auction costs last year were Trout ($53), Betts ($48), Acuna ($47)

    M. Semien – 8
    L. Robert – 8
    S. Sanchez – 8
    B. Lowe – 9
    H. Ryu – 15
    Z. Gallen – 15
    G. Springer – 20
    G. Torres – 25
    C. Yelich – 43
    J. Ramirez – 43

    It’s keep 5.

    • Michael says:
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      My initial thoughts are Robert, Sanchez, Lowe, Gallen and not to take a 5th

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        And Lowe too

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Luis Robert, Jo-Ram, Gallen — could see going with Yelich tho…You have no clearcut keepers

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Prolly wouldn’t go a 5th, but I guess Sixto is a fine gamble

        • Diego Garcia says:
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          Why would you keep J Ramirez or Yelich at those prices? You could buy them back at auction for pretty much the same price. ZERO value in either.

          Just as absurd to not not keep Sixto at $8. That’s a tremendous value – – even if you expect him to be a bust, there’d be huge trade value in Sixto at $8.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Better to lock up guys — how much will Sixto be? $15? So, you save $7 there — none are great value, tbh

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              BTW, I said he could keep Sixto

            • Diego Garcia says:
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              Yes, lock up guys with value. And at $43 there’s ZERO value in J Ramirez or Yelich. None whatsoever. Especially with Yelich after last season’s near Mendoza flop.

              Sixto has massive hype right now – – I don’t buy it either and traded him away in a 15 team NL only dynasty.

              But the key is to capitalize on that $8 value and then move him for even more value.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                That works for me…Kinda Sixto of one, half dozen of the other

                • Ha!

            • Michael says:
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              Ya I don’t think any are great value outside of Luis Robert probably. $8 for him is a decent savings.

              I’ll probably go Robert, Lowe, Gallen, Sanchez and then one of Yelich and Ramirez depending on who other guys start to keep and what positions have more depth.

              Thanks for the input!

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                No problem

  6. Sweatpants Nation says:
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    Vlad Jr. BSOHL

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, it’s so dumb — why is that the best shape?

      • Sweatpants Nation says:
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        I heard it on MLB I think. It made me chuckle.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          What I don’t ever get about that is what makes that his “best” shape? He was good as a roly poly guy up until this year, wasn’t he?

          • Smitty says:
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            I wonder sometimes if the homerun derby ruins guys seasons. I seem to remember both Vlad and Pete tanking after cranking dozens out. They swing hard so many times it leads to nagging injuries and soreness for the remainder of the schedule. I cringe every time anyone on my roster signs up for that, but the prize $ lures them in.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, maybe, but neither was particularly bad last year…Vlad just flattened his swing a lot and Pete had a bad few weeks in August

          • Sweatpants Nation says:
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            Beats me. They said he was up to 280 last year and dropped 40 pounds. Don’t know what he weighed in 2019. I think the hope is he can play third now that he’s less of a porker which might allow Rowdy to play first.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Guess my point is he was always chunky so why mess with a good if slightly larger thing

  7. Cram It says:
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    Love me some Bohm. I wouldn’t put money on 35/10/.300 in 2 years, but I would at 30/10/.300. For this year, I want him as my CI everywhere.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, he feels kinda like a young Au Shizz

  8. Tom says:
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    Muncy probably dropped because he batted .192 in that aberration of a season. But since he hit those 35 homers out of nowhere in the 2018 season, at 28 yrs old, he’s just felt flukey. Sure he followed that up with another 35 hr. season, which convinced some he’s the real deal and the fluke label was removed. But last year, although on pace for 35 hrs. he batted .192. So coming off that, and the fact that he turns 31 to start this season the worries creep back in that maybe those two seasons were indeed a fluke.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      But none of his peripherals are saying he should suddenly not hit for power or hit .190 again

  9. Ascher says:
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    In Grey We Trust!!!!

    This is the best time of year, the baseball rankings are here!!!

    Questions about Hoskins at 21 rank…what do you think about him as a 21st round keeper?

    Need 5 from this list…some are obvious…
    Acuna (21st round)
    Eloy (24th round)

    Others are not as obvious:
    Hoskins (21st)
    Jo Adell (27th)
    Wander Franco (27th)
    Gavin Lux (27th)
    Kyle Lewis (27th)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks!

      Lewis, Wander are easy…Then it’s up to you and a coin flip…I’d prolly go Lux

  10. Charlie says:
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    Grey,

    You sir are amazing!! I decided to splurge and subscribe to your Patreon page. So this is what it’s like to celebrate Christmas?! I’m used to one present a night for 8 nights, not getting all my presents at once ?

    Lol my biggest problem now is holding off on questions until content drops over here. Haha I think your top 20 outfielders drops next Wednesday and I already have a question for you waiting in the queue.

    Side note: for anyone here who can afford a frappywhatzamahuzit at Starbucks, I highly recommend passing on the sugar high and replace it with a Razzball high. 1000/10 would highly recommend !

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! Haha, appreciate you!

  11. Frank Rizzo says:
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    My league is a 10 team h2h. Last year I was excited to get Olson. Just like how I was excited to get Hoskins the year before. But each of them was prone to extended droughts and brutal BA. Never again. I’m drafting a 1B higher this year and not grabbing a power hitter that will single handedly lose BA for me in a weekly matchup. I’d much sooner grab LeMahieu than Olson. You can find power at many positions but BA is much tougher to come by

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Gotcha

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        H2H is a special beast

  12. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Hey there Grey my friend. Hope all is well with you. Yasiel Puig was placed on waivers by a team. Should I try and pick him up in the auction draft in March?

    Also I am still on the fence about the Bregman/Ozuna trade.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sure, grab Puig in March if he’s signed

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        where do u think he will sign?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Who knows

          • Will says:
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            This was out a couple of weeks ago:

            Yasiel Puig is drawing interest from multiple teams, per sources. Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, Marlins and Orioles appear to have varying levels of interest.

            — Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) January 4, 2021

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Why do I think it won’t be O’s or Marlins?

              • Scott Kimmel says:
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                Im thinking about JD Martinez ($39) for a different OF. These arethe ones I am considering:

                Pham ($34)
                Marte ($23)
                Conforto ($26)
                L. Gurriel ($6)
                L. Cain ($17)

                In order who should i try to acquire first

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  You’re trading for JD or trading him away?

                  • Scott Kimmel says:
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                    trading him away my friend

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Gurriel, Conforto, though I don’t know which Marte that is

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      Starling Marte. WHat about COnforto and Pham

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Gurriel or Conforto…wouldn’t do Pham

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
                      (link)

                      what about Cain? So what would the order of preference to acquire

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I wouldn’t touch Cain…Gurriel, Conforto is the order

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
                      (link)

                      So the order is:

                      1) Gurriel – owner said no already
                      2) Conforto – owner said yes
                      3) Marte
                      4) Pham
                      5) Cain

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      No, just Conforto

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      ok i’ll make the deal

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Cool

  13. Mr. Booooo-urns says:
    (link)

    I think the Dom Smith love has less to do with his projected stats, and more to do with how well he hit the ball last season. His Statcast page shows a lot of foxy red in all the right places, and even considering the shortened plague-ball season, some of these changes — dropped his K-rate, upped his wOBA, upped his Z-Contact %, upped his pull rate — started in 2019 (or earlier). And he’s a line-drive guy first, which I think excites people who visualize those turning into more hard-hit flyballs with a tweak or some luck.

    https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dominic-smith-642086

    That said, I’m a little skeptical, but will probably draft him speculatively in a lot of places as my CI or UT with the hopes that his increasing hard hit and barrel trends continue, assuming he gets an adequate volume of plate appearances. This could also be the JD Davis-StatCast-Love-Train all over again though, so I’m equally prepared to be disappointed.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      All of that makes sense! I think you’re right about those being the reasons — “how well he hit the ball last season” is my problem since it was 2 months — if he had another 4 months, I’m not sure he would’ve kept it up — wouldn’t be betting on him

    • Diego Garcia says:
      (link)

      Dom Smith finally got some regular playing time in 2020 – – take a good look at his 2019 numbers and you’ll see there’s not much of an aberration as there is an actual progression from a 25yr old getting consistent every day playing time.

      Let’s not cherry pick MiLB stats that Smith never hit more than 20HR without also acknowledging that he was a consistent.300+ hitter throughout the minors.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Dom Smith looks like at best Michael Brantley at 1B — 24/.290 — and at worst 17/.270 — wouldn’t touch him for fear of the down side

        • Diego Garcia says:
          (link)

          Mike Brantley has never hit more than 22HR in his life. If he gets everyday playing time this year I’d go all in that Smith hits more than 22HR.

          Look at his numbers over the past two seasons – – 177AB in 2019 with 11HR and 177AB in 2020 with 10HR. Get 500AB this year and I can’t see any way that doesn’t translate into at least 20 to 25HR.

          But maybe my extrapolation multiplication calculation is off.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Has Dom Smith ever hit more than 22 HRs in his life?

          • Diego Garcia says:
            (link)

            Buying a 34yr old Joe Abreu “breakout” while being sceptical on a 26yr old Dom Smith “breakout” defies logic.

            I do, however, agree with you 100% that someone is going to be very wrong on Smith.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              What I do find interesting is every projections system is off on Dom if he’s good again…I’m surprised not one single system likes him, bc I think he has the possibility, I just don’t buy it

              • Diego Garcia says:
                (link)

                I trust my what I’m seeing with my eyes more than I trust what I’m hearing with my ears.

                The steamer projection for a .252BA is laughable if you’ve watched Smith develop over the past two seasons.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Yeah, I said that in my blurb — I think the AVG is low there too…Oddly enough, Steamer’s not on its own with that

      • Are we comparing D. Smith to Js. Abreu right now? In 2018 Dom hit .258 at AAA and .224 at the major league level. Excellent last year for 60 games when he actually had steady AB’s, but his career .237 vs LHP is why Js. Martinez was signed.
        I like Dom, but his days of playing OF are over and Albombso is at 1B. That leaves him with part-time AB’s in a DH platoon, if there is a DH in the NL. What Dom needs is an opportunity with a new team. Abreu is an MVP

  14. William Hung says:
    (link)

    Just drooling over potential 1B values for 2021. I’m keeping Bellinger, Betts, and Story on my team for this upcoming season. With these same 3 in hand last year, I went Olson and Mondesi with my first 2 picks, but now it’s looking I could potentially snag Alonso and Mondesi, or even potentially get Olson a little later in my draft.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Belly, Story and Betts starting any team, even a shallow one is very sexy

  15. Ewok says:
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    My suggestion for players who should be in the minors but projection systems love them, for pitchers like Nick Pivetta and Matthew Boyd, they are FIP Bois.

    If I am being really mean to guys like Brandon Belt, he is a Super Number 2 player like me seeking arbitration with my toilet after an evening with Taco Bell.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, need one term for hitters and pitchers

  16. The Great Knoche says:
    (link)

    Christopher Cross tier make you wanna Jump, Jump?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      YES

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      Funny, for whatever reason, I googled them a couple of days ago to see what became of them as adults. One’s doing well, the other is dead.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Haha, heartwarming!

        • Cram It says:
          (link)

          Spreading joy whenever I can!

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Haha

  17. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey! Any hesitation on taking a $18 Lindor for your $19 Bieber in a keep forever roto? Shipping Bieber would still allow me to keep 2 of Snell ($19), Cookie ($12), Burnes ($4), Ryu ($17), so plenty of SP keeper options.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      None

  18. 183414 says:
    (link)

    Grey, if I’d like to see what your Top 100 rankings (and top 100 s.p.’s) are today, so I can better be able to conduct my draft which started this a.m. , with the #1 pick, do I hit the $10 a month button, or would $5 do the trick ?
    You have Arenado ranked at 15, so obviously , if both Arenado and Abreu were available @30/31, you would take Arenado. Abreu’s line-up kind of makes him more enticing, and Abreu’s b.avg. seems a lot more of a sure thing than Arenado, given Acuna is not a plus b.avg.
    What say you ?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      $10 for rankings

      Arenado has Coors, he could easily hit for a better average than Abreu on the back of Coors-fueled BABIP alone…I like Arenado a lot still, throwing out 2020 as just being a weird year for him — but I’d own Arenado and Abreu, for sure

      • 183414 says:
        (link)

        Thanks Grey Man. I’m actually contemplating taking Bogaerts, for the 1st time ever, if available @30/31. His contact and hit% has been amazingly consistent. Plus, his perfect success rate should keep the s.b.’s coming.
        Tough having to wait until 60/61 to take my 1st pitcher (or 2), but so many sweet bats may be available @30/31. Seager, Albies, Abreu, Arenado, LeMahieu, Bogaerts.
        Acuna should give me 4 solid cats, but b.avg. isn’t 1 of them.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I like Bogaerts a lot too…I think Arenado/Bogaerts or Abreu/Bogaerts are great choices…Solid AVG and counting stats, with upside — are low on SBs with them tho, but Acuna helps

          • 183414 says:
            (link)

            Signed up for Patreon. You deserve $10 a month for all of your output. Thanks !!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Appreciate it!

              • 183414 says:
                (link)

                You’ve earned it !
                Took Bogaerts and Arenado @30/31.

  19. Rhys says:
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    Is your disdain for Hoskins based solely on the average? He’s a 30+ HR middle of the order bat who gets on base a ton (despite the average). Seems very similar to Max Muncy to me. You hope he doesn’t hit .226 again like he did in 2019, but his 3 other seasons are all .245+, and again it’s not like he’s not getting on base.

    To me in an OBP league (and I know that’s not what you’re ranking), Hoskins is a safe top 10 1B. Understandably his average brings him down in the ranks, but i’m surprised at such the negative take on him.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Also, he just had serious surgery — if he loses any power due to surgery, and hits .225 it’s going to be a very bad year from Hoskins — in an OBP league is a different story

  20. J-rock says:
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    Would you keep Abreru $40 or Alonso $24. $300 budget. H2H points. -1 pt/K.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Alonso

  21. SteveNZ says:
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    Hello.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hola

      • SteveNZ says:
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        I’ve been hanging around here a while, as you know, but rankings time is still cool.

        Looking forward to drafting Story and have him be a massive disappointment and passing on Olson and him having a career year.

        Baseball is back, baby!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          If you don’t pass on Olson and reverse jinx him, I will blame you if he’s not good

          • SteveNZ says:
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            That’s fair. Mind you, I stuck with him to the bitter end last season and still won my league. Though I can’t figure out if that means I’ll be rewarded or punished.

            Steveabermetrics alive and well it seems.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Hmm, that is a tough call…I’m thinking punished

              • SteveNZ says:
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                I passed on Story to draft Lindor and still won my league (did I mention that?) so maybe that balances it out?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, true

  22. Regan says:
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    Does the Springer signing affect the playing time/outlook for Tellez?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      It’s incorporated

  23. krazyivan says:
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    This left handed hitting murderers row of the Rangers is getting interesting. Calhoun-Gallo-Dahl-Lowe. Too bad the rest of the lineup besides Solak sucks.
    I might spend up like a dummy on Vlad only because if he fixes the launch angle then he would probably run away with the MVP.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, Vlad could hit 30 homers and .320 with a trunkload of runs and RBIs

  24. Ted Williams frozen head says:
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    Here is the thing about Dom Smith. And I promise you this is 100% true. Prior to the 2019 season he found out he suffers from sleep apnea. Since doing whatever it is you do to fix that, he has been raking. It really changed his entire life for the better. Dude does not stop having fun. Google it, he gives that all the credit.

    Over enthusiastic met fans are prob skewing his ADP. It is what we do. Be over enthusiastic. But you have to take this health condition and diagnosis into account when looking at his minor league stats.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Dom Smith is being drafted high because he’s getting some shut eye?

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