Here’s the fun sleepers! Put away your Dylan Moores! Get out of the way with your Franchies! Stop exploring the dirty stuff you want to do with your Ryan Jefferii! We’re looking at a guy who is way more exciting than that! *sees we’re looking at Eric Hosmer* Okay, I take that back. Eric Hosmer isn’t exciting at all. Yeah, he’s boring as all crizzap. Let’s hit the snooze button and take a siesta, what say you? You’re already asleep? Okay, cool. I will just go ahead…and…slide…my spoon right next to your fork–WHOA! Stop yelling! I was going to nap with you! Hayzeus Francisco Cristo! I didn’t mean to upset you. It was just Eric Hosmer hit nine homers and .287 last year, and lowered his strikeouts to 17.9% and stole four bags and all in 143 ABs…Hey, wait a second, I’m getting excited for Eric Hosmer! That’s weird, and awkward since I’m still spooning you — How ya doin’. So, what can we expect from Eric Hosmer for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

I did a Ric Flair WOOOOOOOO and strutted around my office for 15 minutes after I did some rudimentary math about Eric Hosmer. It went like this: A new Launch Angle that went from 2 to 8.7 that led to an increase of his fly ball rate from 23.1% to 34.2%. 34.2% fly ball equates to something like 181 fly balls, and Eric Hosmer has maintained a 20% HR/FB rate for five straight years, and 20% HR/FB with 181 fly balls is 36 homers and I’m WOOOOO’ing and strutting again. 36 bazingas and it’s not even noon yet? I’m going to take a nap before I use all my juice up. You don’t have a battery charging symbol on your forehead telling you how much charge you have left for the day? It’s only me? That’s weird.

But wait there’s more! Hosmer’s Launch Angle change wasn’t just for some cheapo homers that sail into the hands of a Chardonnay drinker out on Tony Gwynn Drive. His Barrel% was the highest in his career, and he had a .291 xBA. His line drive rate went from 23.2% to 30.8% year over year, and he was pulling the ball a lot more. Yo, hand Hosmer the keys, he’s driving! Too bad the Padres didn’t hire Tony La Russa, he could use that. Eff me in the eff hole, Hosmer’s a .280 hitter for real for real? For real!

Too bad Hosmer’s going to hit 36 homers and .280 with no speed, am’right? No, am’wrong! He had four steals in only 38 games last year, and, while none the previous year, he’s usually good for at least six to eight steals. What’s that, Hosmer is a 31-year-old who is just now becoming prime Au Shizz? Yes, it appears that way, but for a third of the price. Maybe a fourth of the price. I’m not sure how percentages work. Hosmer’s going around 150th overall. Pop shot, hotquiz! 36 homers, 7 steals, and a .280 average is better or worse than any 1st baseman being drafted in the top 50 overall? I’m going with better, but what do I know? I don’t even know if you end “What do I know” with a question mark or period. This is having a lot of fun about a small sample from last year if there wasn’t a real change made, but there was. Okay, I’m not a complete idiot, I know Hosmer isn’t young and his upside might be limited, but he could have one full season in his bat that looks a lot like what we hoped to get from Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo or a non-Cub. For 2021, I’ll give Eric Hosmer projections of 83/29/94/.283/8 in 591 ABs with a chance for more.

 
  1. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!!!

    Yet another fantastic fantasy-sleeper report!

    a. One word…HOFmer. He was definitely more valuable last year than previous seasons.

    b. Looking forward to watching The Ripper (4-part British mini-series about the Yorkshire ripper) and Selena The Series (9-part series about Selena Quintanilla, the real Selena).

    c. MLB quote of the day for December 21, 2020

    1. Paulino Ortiz Casanova, born December 21, 1941

    ‘Cas is a helluva knuckleball hitter. It’s too bad he can’t hit the other pitches as well – or that there aren’t more knuckleball pitchers in the league. How do you hit the knuckleball? Hell, I don’t know – I never did learn how to hit the darned things.’

    Hall of Famer Ted Williams in The Sheboygan Press (08/07/1969, Casanova’s Pinch HR Nips Sox, Page 35)

    2. Dave Kingman, born December 21, 1948

    ‘The last time a pure home run hitter swung a bat for the Cubs at Wrigley Field, his personality wasn’t the question. Ernie Banks’ disposition came drenched in sunshine. One-Stroke Magic returned to Wrigley Field this spring in the person of lean and hungry David Arthur Kingman. He is an unquestionable slugging talent with a puzzling psyche marked ‘fragile’ and sure to be handled with care. The past is his bane.’

    Columnist Brian Hewitt in the Chicago Sun Times (Baseball Digest, July 1978, Page 31)

    3. Joaquin Andujar, born December 21, 1952

    ‘There is one word in America that says it all, and that one word is, “You never know””

    Joaquin Andujar in the Los Angeles Times (June 21, 1984) [Joaquin Andujar Quotes]

    4. LaTroy Hawkins, born December 21, 1972

    ‘Talked about it all the time, how he was going to be a baseball player, basketball player, whatever he was doing, he was going to do it well and do the best at it. He wanted to play sports, he wanted to play baseball. He didn’t want to be out there gang-banging or whatever it is kids are doing. He wanted to go to school, play baseball and be famous.’

    Debra Morrow (Mom) in The Minnesota Score (Eric Nelson, Aug/Sep 2003)

    5. Any Van Slyke, born December 21, 1960

    ‘I have an Alka Seltzer bat. You know plop, plop, fizz, fizz. When the pitchers see me walking up they say, “Oh what a relief it is.”‘

    Andy Van Slyke from Here Are Some New Names for Humor Hall of Fame (Glenn Liebman, Baseball Digest, March 1992)

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      A. That’s a good word! Hosabout’s that!

      B. I watched The Ripper, crazy shizz, had not heard about that at all

      C. Good quote from Joaquin, especially didn’t know when he was on the mound

      • Ante Galic says:
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        Grey!

        a. LOL on Andujar. Was higher than a kite at times.

        b. Thanks for not mentioning my typo on C. 5. above. Meant to type Andy, it came out Any, though he had a brother, right? And doesn’t he have a son in professional baseball somewhere? So Any could work if they were all born on the same date!! Eyeroll.

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          A. He deserves a documentary

          B. Haha, I knew who you meant!

          • Ante Galic says:
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            Grey!!

            a. Thanks man. I was watching a funny comedian do a sociology experiment where he wears a fake mustache and a fake police uniform and he’s able to get ANYONE to do ANYTHING he wants. Incredible how by-law XYZ gets validity with just a ‘stache and a uni.

            b. So true on Andujar doc

            c. I transferred Van Slyke to La Roche (Andy and Adam). On my way to psychosis.

            Cheers,
            Ante

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              A. Stamford Prison Experiment, but a comedy!

              C. Haha

  2. Tom says:
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    This looks a bit too optimistic for me, Hosmer has never hit 29 hrs. and my guess is he probably won’t this year. On the plus side, he has shown the ability to stay in the line-up which always helps. My guess is he ends up in the 20-24 hr. range, with a few steals thrown in. Not bad but not great.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      We want better, Tom, and we deserve it!

  3. pinkman says:
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    Thanks for the writeup! Owning Hosmer as my starting 1B in Roto last year led me to victory, once I saw the launch angle go up I had to bite- grabbed him on the wire, and luckily it led to reaping the benefits.

    Related but unrelated- why does everyone hate Colin Moran? He was a commodity while in HOU’s farm system, but he’s noticeably the last 1B to go in most of my best ball drafts so far. I know he’s not a starting 1B with Bell there, so he’s probably going to OF if he’s to become a starter, but it looks to me like PIT has the room out there for him. Is it lingering bias against the dreadful Pirates? Dude hit in the middle of the order all year and looked better than replacement at the plate. Why all the hate!?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks!

      re: Moran — It’s not exactly reassuring when the Pirates themselves platoon him… Last year might’ve been a little bit of a breakout, he was finally making hard contact, but he hits hardly any fly balls

      • pinkman says:
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        He had 170 ABs in a year where the league leader had almost 250 ABs, that’s a lot for a platoon player

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, he’s never been a platoon player

  4. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    What is this crap, a senior sleeper. Old guys can’t be sleepers. Stay away from the egg nog, its spiked.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Aw, man…I am Dominick the Donkey

      • Dan says:
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        Speaking of old guys I remember you did a sleeper on Seth brown last year. Do you still think he could be a solid contributor in 2021

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’ve given up hope for him in the top 500, but maybe if he gets ABs then he can be picked up

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
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        That’s one hilarious donkey story. As part Itallian I feel you man lol

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha

    • Smitty says:
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      OG’s rock – love Hoss at his price

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Thanks, Smitty!

  5. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Morning Grey aand Happy Holidays to you and yours. I was sent a trade offer in my dynasty keeper league.

    I give up: Paul DeJong/SS/STL ($17) and Chad Green/RP/NYY ($5)
    I get: Austin Nola/C/SD ($6).

    Would you make the deal?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      You too!

      I’d take Nola

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        ok i’ll make the deal. thanks.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  6. NUX says:
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    NFBC BB #1 in the books. Will start another around this time next week prob, unless there is a crazy amount of interest in next day or two. You like your squad?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, I’m happy, I’m still not 100% sure what is a good team in this league, but, hey, it’s $10 — I’m down to start a new draft whenever

      • NUX says:
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        Yea me neither as far as what a good team looks like. I have a ton of draft data and results that I could look at from the numerous teams I did during 2020 in this format. But its hard to really drill down on what did or did not work out strategy wise.

        In general, I had pushed up the guys like Muncy, DJLem, McNeil that had nice eligibility for 2020 and it obvi worked out well when I had DJLem and not so well where I grabbed Muncy. A few other takeaways are that it sucked where I had grabbed multiple targets like Stroman, Odorizzi, Willie Calhoun, Andujar and so forth. But I pretty much had Dansby and Ian Happ on every team so that part did work out.

        I do like your strategy in the 2nd half of this recent one though, getting the multi elig guys a little later with Wendle, IKF, Berti

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, that was my only strategy, get guys that can play everywhere so I’m not too reliant on anyone, and hopefully guys have one good week when I need them

    • packers2018 says:
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      Hey Nux, I’m game for another league, trouble is I don’t use Twitter so I don’t tweet.
      If you start another, drop the link and password like you did this time. Thanks..

      • NUX says:
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        Hey man, I’m dropping my email into the chat in the draft room, which is still open if you go to the NFBC BB10 website and chose this league and we can stay in touch that way too. Otherwise, I will post it here as well. I just try to fill it via other means first before posting here and I don’t want you to miss out!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Okay, just ping me in my latest post

          • NUX says:
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            Yep, for sure. I got you covered Grey. I was just explaining this for Packers specifically.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ah, cool, thanks!

        • The Great Knoche says:
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          I’d say Let’s wait until after the new year. Selfishly of course, holidays are busy as all fuck for me.

          • NUX says:
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            I feel ya. I’m the opposite. I have off work between Xmas and New Years, so will be looking for something to distract me from chores. Don’t fret though Knoche, these take less than a week, so I’d bet we’d have the next one starting around that exact time you suggest.

            This is of course dependent on how much interest in general. There are probs a lot of others that are busy just as you are, so i may not be able to fill until after the New year.

            I fill Fantrax BB too if you are ever interested in those ones. Different roster construction and I’ve generally still been doing the Top 6 get 2X the buy in (so $20). Just let me know, I can send a link for those too.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            It’s fine with me either way

  7. Will says:
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    Hosmer going #151 overall seems like decent value. My problem with his is he has been consistently bad against left handed pitching – to the point where I wonder if he doesn’t get platooned or subbed out for more often. I think he’ll probably fall short of your projections but something like .275 / 25 / 86 / 5 is still serviceable at 1b.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Fair, I think the swing changes for last year will be a difference maker, even over a full season

      • Will says:
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        I do like his increase in barrel rate and hard hit percentage. But is is sustainable? I’m having the same debate on Wil Myers – his barrel rate jumped to 15% and hard hit rate to 46%. If he can repeat those he’s in for a big season.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          He won’t get a post, but I like Myers too

          • Will says:
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            If you had to keep only one from Myers, Grisham and S Marte which one would you keep?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Grisham

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Marte is close

              • Will says:
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                Thanks, that’s what I figured

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  No problem

  8. douglas clarke says:
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    Oh-oh. I do not know who Billy Hurley is …. or Grey Albright … or Ric Flair. Does this mean i’m not hip enough to read Razzball ? What can i do to become a hipster ? Help me …

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      You seem to be doing okay, will monitor you to make sure

  9. Uncle Salty says:
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    I think coming up with a new team name for Cleveland should be no prob. It rhymes with Dreamers.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yes, Beamers — then they can all dress like Spock

  10. hot corner says:
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    I like it. Maybe a little high on the SB’s but Hosmer should be good for an easy 100 RBIs hitting 4th in that line-up. He has always been a good RBI guy.

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