Welcome to the hardest post to write each year. *jamming out to The White Stripes’ The Hardest Button to Button while looking at the ‘Submit’ button* This post can go a dozen different ways. This is merely how I landed on the top 20 for 2021 fantasy baseball, but I can’t stress enough that who you drafted in the 1st round could change this. Empirically, this is who I like for the top 20 for 2021 fantasy baseball. This also can change depending on the depth of your league. There’s still tiers to help you wade your way through the top 20, and, when I’m done with all the rankings, I will do a pairings post to help with who to draft in the 2nd round if you took so-and-so in the 1st round. All the positional rankings will live under the 2021 fantasy baseball rankings. The projections in this post are, as always, mine. For Steamer’s 2021 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2021 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers, click those thingie-whosies. Anyway, here’s the top 20 for 2021 fantasy baseball:

NOTE: All 2021 fantasy baseball projections are based on a 162-game season, and will be until we hear definitively there will be less games.

NOTE II: All my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.

11. Christian Yelich – This tier started in the top 10 for 2021 fantasy baseball and ends at Bichette. I called this tier, “The I Test.” In some ways, this tier and the next could be called, the “Why are we trying to remember 2020? It was an awful year, let’s just forget it. Sure, those who forget history are doomed to repeat, but if we’re not repeating it for another 100 years, let someone else remember that shizz, I’m not gonna be here” tiers. Forget that Yelich is going way later than this in many drafts, because everyone thinks a few random weeks during a pandemic is his new normal. This year’s fantasy drafts will be focusing on skills vs. results from an abbreviated goof of a season. One of the most interesting aspects to 2020 is…How soon can I forget it? Also, why are some people pretending a 60-game sample size makes all the sense in the world for some players, but not other players? Draft for 2021, not for last year. It sucks if you got hoodwinked into Yelich last year as a top three pick. Check your mailbox, I sent you a sympathy card. No I did not! You get an asymptomatic card! Put on your big boy pants, and grab your spine out of your wastebasket! Baby time is over! Yelich did a giant dump last year, and now you’re the one wearing the diapers? You’re telling me a guy who is 29 years old suddenly forgot where the strike zone is? His numbers make no sense. A 30.8% strikeout rate? A .205 average? A guy that does dirty flirting every year with .300 suddenly can’t hit? Sure, and I have a bridge to sell you on the River Kwai. He had a 99% exit velocity; a 98% Hard Hit rate; top 2% of the league in walks, and a .276 xBA on fastballs when he was .347 the year before. Oh…*builds a tower of phonebooks to the moon*…kay. Right. 2021 Projections: 104/34/102/.288/16 in 549 ABs

12. Bo Bichette – Not to get Mr. Prorater all crazy, but Bichette was on pace for a 30/24 season last year. Mr. Prorater, “Did you know if every person in the world wished Happy Birthday to one person, it would take that person seventy-four years to text back ‘Thx’ and eighty-one years for ‘Thanks’?” Mr. Prorater, I think you might be making up your prorating. If you combine, Bichette’s first two years, he’s gone 16/8 in 319 ABs, while hitting .307. Godfather Larry Walker better not get any blood from a dead person found in his backyard on his SpongeBob Nascar jacket, because Bo Bichette’s gonna need it in 25 years. His walk rate fell pretty low last year, and last year for him was 29 games, so *raspberries lips*. Again, draft based on skills and not what’s jangling around in your skull about what a player might’ve did in 29 games. Skills vs. skulls, go skills. Bichette is a 25/25/.290 guy at his floor. His ceiling is The Creation of Adam by Michelangelo. Not to thirst trap you too hard, but this year’s Bichette feels like last year’s Tatis. Good luck getting Bichette after the 5th pick next year. 2021 Projections: 102/27/81/.294/25 in 597 ABs

13. Freddie Freeman – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Machado. I call this tier, “Landslide.” Otherwise known as the Fleetwood Mac song that doesn’t require you to drink nasty-ass cranberry juice.

Well, I’ve been ‘fraid of changin’
‘Cause I’ve built my fantasy team around you,
But 60-game season stats prorated makes you bolder,
Even valuable players get older,
And I’m gettin’ older, too, but not as old as you, Bartolo.

All of these guys are well known names who have been around the block a few dozen times. Only surprising thing is a few of them are currently being drafted way after this point, which I can’t figure out, but will try to cover why when I get there. As for Freeman, congrats on winning the stronger of the two weak MVP awards. Doesn’t take much onion peeling to see Freeman was wildly lucky last year to hit .341, which in a small sample marched him to his best average year. Line drives and HardHit% were great, but it was also two months, and I’m essentially throwing it out. He’s still great, just don’t expect a six-month jaunt thru 2021 at his 2020 pace. If you’re wondering where I came up with his projected 32 HRs, it’s 17% HR/FB on 177 fly balls, and tacking on an extra two homers for encouragement. I am the dad you wish you had. 2021 Projections: 101/32/113/.297/4 in 588 ABs

14. Bryce Harper – I could’ve also named this tier, “If you don’t know who these guys are, I suggest starting with my 2014 rankings and working your way up to present day.” True Story Alert! I looked at Bryce Harper’s peripherals then his .268 average, and I thought to myself, “He had to have a much higher expected batting average,” and what do you know? Check out the big brain on Grey! Harper’s .307 xBA was in the top 4% of the league, and, with better luck, Harper could’ve had a 15/10/.350/.450/.660 season, and would’ve been lauded as top five overall pick. Only big difference between Harper’s previous year vs. past years was his strikeouts plummeted in 2020, but picking and choosing which stats to throw out in a small sample is a slippery slope, which makes for tough sledding. 2021 Projections: 97/35/110/.266/12 in 562 ABs

15. Manny Machado – I have a lot of anecdotal reasons to worry about Machado. In 2019, I was worried about Machado because San Diego is such a beautiful place to chill that he would vibe too hard and not care enough, which is what seemed to happen. Then he wasn’t checked out in 2020, because he was quarantined and there was no chill for anyone, so he had his mind on the ball and the ball on his mind because there was nothing else to do. If any of this checks out as true and not just nonsense, then 2021 could be a concern. The one thing that points to this being more than just nonsense is Machado is the only player I’ve seen gain almost 200 spots on the Sprint Speed charts after eight years in the league. Did he really get faster, or did he just run harder? Hmm, indeed. The other way to look at Machado is 2019 was the outlier year for him, and he’s much more of a 35/12/.280 hitter. I wanna believe, but buoying my optimism is he is at worst a 33/5/.260 hitter. 2021 Projections: 97/34/104/.278/10 in 584 ABs

16. Shane Bieber – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Cole. I call this tier, “Sipping on your daiquiri.” The tier name refers to your activity during your draft when these guys go off the board. They’re already long gone in all leagues, so you’ve likely already sipped on your daiquiri, and are already feeling tipsy, but, neverthehoo, if they’re available, take a pull on your crazy straw and ignore these guys. If you’ve been following my rankings for a minute, and not an actual minute, but an Urban Dictionary minute which is actually a long time, you know I’d never draft a starter in the top 20. So, yes, I’ve chosen to only rank two starters in the top 20. If you want to bemoan my low ranking of these two starters, then bemoan away. Just remember, a bemoaner sounds a bit to me like, “U be a boner.” Here’s what I’ve said previously about ranking starters in the top 20, “Before you say, ‘Grey, you’re handsome AF, and super smart. You rub-a-dub places I thought only ladies could rub and/or dub. Yet, you say you’d never draft a starter in the top 20, but you’ve ranked Shane Bieber and Gerrit Cole in the top 20. Should I not draft Bieber or Cole if they’re available? Thank you for your time, you are a real pleasure.’ This always drives me crazy. Not the compliments, those are nice. If you’re following my rankings, Story, Bellinger, Yelich, Machado, and more are ranked higher than their ADP and where others are ranking them (for the most part; there’s exceptions, obviously). So how on earth did you get to pick 17, and have no one else available to you but Bieber or Cole? Are you in a league with sixteen me’s? Otherwise, there’s guys available to draft I like more than Bieber. A companion piece to this question is the guy (and, let’s be honest, it’s always a guy), who says, ‘Only players available were Bieber and Machado and I didn’t want to draft Machado, so I went with Bieber.’ So, you don’t want to listen to me on who to draft in regards to Machado, but you want me to say it’s okay to draft a guy I’ve ranked later who I’ve said not to draft? Okay…*places traffic cone on head, kneels down in driver’s ed course, gets slammed by pimple-faced teenager’s Sebring* So, why even rank Bieber 17th overall if I wouldn’t draft him here? I gotta rank him somewhere! What, I’m gonna rank him 450th overall next to Austin Gomber?” And that’s me quoting me! I changed some names and numbers from last year to this year, but that’s still completely applicable, so please appliqué!

As for Bieber, have absolutely no qualms with anything to do with him. If we’re talking about drafting pitchers, I’m actually surprised he’s being drafted after Cole in some leagues. Bieber is a chef’s kiss from the top of Gheorghe Muresan’s head to the bottom of Muggsy Bogues’s toes; Cole has legit issues. For another mountainous metaphor, Bieber’s yodeling up in The Price is Right Cliffhangers game, and Cole is just about to free fall off the side. Last year, Bieber’s 14.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 produced a 2.04 xFIP and, while I won’t be drafting him, it does make me frisky in my pants. My guess is his velocity bump (93 to 94 MPH) is due to the short season, and he’s more of a 11-12 K/9 guy, but 11-12 K/9 with a 2 BB/9 is–bah gawd, that’s Mr. Perfect’s music! 2021 Projections: 16-5/2.48/0.91/261 in 204 IP

17. Gerrit Cole – Unlike Bieber, Cole’s fastball velocity went down, and he was lucky to have a 2.84 ERA last year vs. his 3.38 xFIP. He lost spin on all his pitches; his curve lost inches of break; his fastball’s runs above average went from 37.1 to 5. Marco Gonzales’s was 14.3; Brandon Woodruff’s 12.8, to give you an idea of the league leaders. Cole’s slider was 6, which was 4th best in the league, just about tied with Antonio Senzatela. El oh–coughs. Yeah, last year was goofy, but still. I’m not drafting Cole, as previously said in the Bieber blurb, and I’m not bothering to ask any other ‘pert who is drafting him why they are drafting him, but if I were you, and I wanted a good question to ask a random ‘pert, I’d ask them, “You obviously are not as handsome as Grey from Razzball, but I’d still like to think you can be as smart. So, could you explain why Cole is above Bieber in your rankings, or did you just recycle your rankings from last year and *raspberries lips* you don’t care?” My guess is they don’t care, and haven’t even thought about putting Bieber over Cole, because recently Cole has been the easy number one for starters. For the life of me, I can’t figure out how someone could draft Cole before Bieber, but I also can’t figure out why anyone’s drafting a starter this high either, so *shrugs*. I don’t know. 2021 Projections: 16-6/2.77/0.94/266 in 205 IP

18. Adalberto Mondesi – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the post. I call this tier, “Beaker.” The Muppets are the best thing this world has ever produced, don’t @ me, there’s nothing close. The absolute best Muppet is Beaker. Animal might be The Muppets’ id; Kermit its heart; Miss Piggy its most passionate; Bert and Ernie its taboo breakers, and Fozzie Bear just sucks, but Beaker, man, that’s where it’s at. He doesn’t need words just meeps, helps Dr. Bunsen Honeydew where he needs it, elicits all your hate, bundles it up into exasperation without lashing out, and has the best hair. Allow me:

This tier will likely elicit hate, but meep this, these guys are the best. Okay, not the best, but all have strong outside chances of being the best. Upside, that sweet siren song calling to Robert Pattinson in The Lighthouse that makes him steal Willem Dafoe’s lobster. That’s not a spoiler, I couldn’t spoil that movie if I wanted. Steamer’s projections for Mondesi: 21/54/.257. Oh, that’s the giddy and the up. That’s for a player who is getting better. Listen here, knower of truths, Mondesi is Beaker and Beaker is life.

Before you start you’re b’ing and m’ing, on our Player Rater last year, Mondesi was the 18th best player, 15th best hitter, and only four guys were ahead of him that didn’t make this top 20. Sure, okay, I get it, last year was goofy. I’m the one saying that! Don’t try to steal my very catchy sayings! Even if last year was goofy, can you seriously imagine a world where Mondesi doesn’t get 50+ steals if he gets 500 ABs? If 50 steals were all he was giving, he’d be worth a top 30 pick. That’s with zero runs, zero RBIs, .000 batting average and zero homers. How is he getting 50 steals with a zero in every other category? I don’t know, this is your dopey hypothetical! The fantasy value of Mondesi’s steals alone last year was $25.4. That’s more value than Michael Conforto, the 31st ranked player. Mondesi is more like a top 12 draft pick, but I honestly didn’t want to hear it, so I ranked him here. His biggest risk are non-5×5 risks. Can he slump in insane ways because he walks once every millennial? Sure, but speed doesn’t slump. Is he a great real life baseball player? Here’s what’s gonna blow your mind, we’re not drafting for real-life baseball. I know, shocker. Oh, and none of this has even mentioned that he’s a 20-homer hitter with a career .251 average in 1097 ABs. He’s bad for fantasy again, why? 2021 Projections: 90/17/76/.253/51 in 581 ABs

19. Luis Robert – Donkey Teeth, innocently, because everything he does is innocent, said to me, “Luis Robert is a top 20 player, right?” And I cackled at him and told him to take a cat o’ tails and whip his back for 25 lashes for making me listen to such nonsense. Then, some time between his 18th lash and his wail to, “Please let me stop, it hurts so much,” I looked at Luis Robert’s stats and projections and thought, “Maybe I should stop Donkey from flogging his back.” I didn’t, because I was also in the middle of getting a manicure, and the woman I hired had to be done in 45 minutes, and my cuticles needed extra attention and–Well, let’s just say, it’s eye-opening when you look at Luis Robert’s projections:  30/23/.260. Oh, I’m sorry, are you better than Mike Trout or nah? This comes down to another case where a player is just so much better for fantasy than they are for real life, which is why I think some fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!) get confused. Also, some fantasy baseball ‘perts are out there trying to tell people to draft two starters in the 1st two rounds, so, yeah, there’s questionable advice circulating through the interwebs. What’s not to question is that Luis Robert can be a top five overall fantasy hitter and is actually peaking vs. plateauing or remaining the same or plateauing means remaining the same. Does his 32.2% strikeout rate from last year worry me? Yo, look at my hair, do I look like I get worried? Also, no, it doesn’t. He never struggled with contact in the minors. That was his rookie year, and he struggled with contact. Big whoop. Or rather big whiff. Who cares? Guys get better and Luis Robert is The Guy. Lou Bob is a 70-grade speed, 60-grade power guy. He has a better chance for a 30/30 season than he has of hitting .233 again. Rather than Beaker, could’ve called this tier, “Guys You’re Going To Kick Yourself Over If You Don’t Have Them On A Team.” But Beaker, man, Beaker. 2021 Projections: 72/28/84/.271/26 in 569 ABs

20. Rafael Devers – As I mentioned in the top 20 shortstops for 2021 fantasy baseball, Bogaerts and Tim Anderson just missed the top 20 overall. Well, Devers did too, then Arenado was traded to the Cardinals, and I moved Arenado out of the top 20 (he’s listed in the top 20 3rd basemen for 2021 fantasy baseball), and I moved Devers into the top 20. Don’t want to go about this in a negative way, and focus on why Devers was almost not a top 20 guy, and instead focus on why he’s ranked this high. My shrink says accentuate the positive, and I say, “Like how I tell myself this wasn’t really a $150/hour session when I subtract parking validation?” And he says, “Yes.” Devers is being drafted/ranked so much lower than this. I’m going to do the very sneaky disguise players as letters game. Ready?

Steamer Projections for Player A:  99/35/105/.288/7 vs. Player B:  88/19/72/.294/7.

Player A is 24 years old; Player B is 32. Okay, obviously A is Devers and B is LeMahieu. It wasn’t meant to be difficult, stop victory lapping around your desk, your chair has rollers, it’s not even really excerise. Not saying Steamer is always right, but that’s about as 3rd person objective as I get. I see the extra Ks last year from Devers, but c’mon. Y’all aren’t taking that serious, are you? So, why is Devers going from an ADP of 18 last year to 45 this year? Is there a reason or are most of you just winging it? Winging it is fine, as long as you’re not doing it while listening to Winger. Also, Debra Winger > Winging it > Winger, if you were wondering. Still deciding on how much higher Debra Winger is than Winging It, but it’s a rather large difference. Prolly a different tier. I am actually interested on why anyone would be down on Devers this year. You out there saying this, “The Red Sox aren’t good, Grey, dontcha know?” Question for you, Fancy Pants:  Have you seen Fenway? Knocks off the wall to boost average, bombs to right to boost power. The Red Sox pitching was awful last year, they were good offensively (top third in OBP, SLG, AVG, runs). They were good because, again, have you seen that park? A 24-year-old hitting his peak, and his peak is excellent and you don’t want to draft that because…? Seriously, I’m at a loss. 2021 Projections: 106/31/109/.284/8 in 602 ABs

 
  1. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!!!!

    Awesome top 20 report! Keep ’em coming! That is, the top 40 and so on not more top 20 reports!!

    a. Agreed on this Beaker tier and the players herein so far. Had Mondesi last year, dropped him (!!!) and then picked him back up that Saturday when he went 3/5 and was on waivers!

    b. The trauma around last year and the schedule and what 2 months in the 2020 season means versus what it means in 2021 or 2019 seasons was pretty scary. Traumatizing for sure!

    c. MLB quote of the day for January 19, 2021

    1. Jon Matlack, born January 19, 1950

    ‘Matlack was often seen as the third wheel behind Tom Seaver and Jerry Koosman in a stacked Mets rotation, but the southpaw was superb in his own right. The fourth overall pick in the 1967 draft, Matlack took Nolan Ryan’s spot in the rotation following the disastrous deal with the Angels – but Jon certainly took a little of the immediate sting away by earning 1972 Rookie of the Year. A year later, a line drive fractured his skull, yet he was back throwing a one-hitter less than a month later. He tossed a two-hit shutout in Cincinnati in the NLCS after the Mets had lost the opening in the ninth inning the previous day.’

    Author Matthew Silverman in Best Mets: Fifty Years of Highs and Lows from New York’s Most Agonizingly Amazin’ Team (Taylor Trade Publishing, 01/16/2012, ’20. Jon Matlack, LHP [1971-1977]’, Page 45)

    2. Brad Mills, born January 19, 1957

    ‘I’m not amazed…All his qualities are coming out. They started out slow. They’re getting beat up. He just kept fighting. He kind of helped create a culture and they’re five [games] within .500. They could’ve quit and now all of a sudden there’s reason for optimism and guys are enjoying coming out to the ballpark in September, and they’re not even .500…He’s kind of included player development. That’s his personality. He’s got the chance to finally do it now. Good for him. I don’t think that’s a surprise at all.’

    Terry Francona on NESN.com (Tony Lee, 09/22/2010, ‘Terry Francona Impressed But Not Surprised by Brad Mills Managerial Efforts in Houston”, Source)

    3. Chris Sabo, born January 19, 1962

    ‘Chris Sabo’s comings and goings were, well… surprising. He was already 26 when he brought a minor league journeyman’s resume to Cincinnati’s big league camp in the early spring of 1988. Unheralded, the newcomer Sabo would soon be a celebrity. Rookie of the Year. Several years later, his myriad skills would suddenly disappear. Veteran Buddy Bell had been slotted as the Reds’ 1988 third baseman. When Bell was placed on the disabled list for opening day, Chris Sabo was chosen to substitute. Fill in he did. Big time. During the season’s first week he tied a record for third baseman with 11 assists in a nine-inning game. Before the year ended, he led NL third sackers in double plays. He stole a base in the ’88 All-Star Game, and swiped 46 bases in the regular season. His .271 batting average included a career-high 40 doubles. It was a spectacular big league entrance.’

    Author Bob Bloss in Rookies of the Year (Page 150)

    4. Byung-Hyun Kim, born January 19, 1979

    ‘Think about pitching in that pressure. And think about failing in the grandest manner. And I still doubt that we can imagine what (Byung-Hyun) Kim must have felt on that mound Thursday (November 1, 2001) night after serving up his second game-tying, two-out, two-run, ninth-inning home run in as many nights.’

    Sportswriter Jim Caple (ESPN)

    5. Stan Musial, died January 19, 2013

    ‘When Butch Yatkeman handed out uniforms, he surveyed us with the experienced eye of a tailor and threw us what he thought would fit best. The uniforms, of course, bore numbers then unassigned. I drew number 6. I’ve never worn any other in the big leagues and, long before I laid it aside, Mr. Busch decided that for the first time the Cardinals would retire a number.’

    Stan Musial in The Life and Times of Stan Musial: Stan The Man (Wayne Stewart, 1964)

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      A. Beaker will rise up!

      B. Yeah

      C. 3. Kinda crazy the Reds still have a Bell in their midst…Also, that Chris Sabo was a celebrity bc he had glasses and one good year is hilarious

  2. Big Ticket says:
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    Grey! You da man! Reading these blurbs makes me so happy, thank you!! I’m in a ten team standard roto, keep 4 forever. First 3 are Acuna, Trout, Bellinger. Last keeper is Turner vs Mondesi. Am I crazy to see Treat getting older and keep Phat Adalberto over him?

    • ukhalo says:
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      You want your players to get older. It’s better than the alternative.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! I’d want Trea

  3. William Hung says:
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    The one caveat with Mondesi that we saw last year is that he can hit anywhere from #2-#9

    • c says:
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      speed plays anywhere. while it doesn’t age well, Mondesi’s still got a few years of prime SB action. If (and this If has its own gravitational pull (that’s no moon)) he can give us anywhere between 12-20 HR (and stay healthy), he’s going to be a top-10 guy. You may be able to win SB with Mondesi and Gray as your team.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        His speed especially…He can’t steal less than 40 bags in a full season of at-bats

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, I’m worried Luis Robert might hit 7-9, so it’s not great but 20/50 or 30/20 with upside are too enticing to ignore

      • Smitty says:
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        Larussa loves veterans so LouBob likely hitting where you said, but taking pressure off kid not a bad idea

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, and 30/25 is still great, even from 7 hole

  4. Ryan Hoover says:
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    fantasy baseball season doesn’t truly begin for me until Grey ranks Mondesi in the top-20 overall. It feels good to have some normalcy back in the world.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, welcome back!

  5. Tom says:
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    Grey is it possible for you to rekindle any of your lost love for Luchessi now that he is a Met?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I ranked him in my top 100 starters, it’s available on Patreon right now or in a few weeks…I don’t really like him

  6. frank rizzo says:
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    Top 20 already? Exciting times. Question: Is Toronto planning on the Buffalo launching pad being their home park again this year?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I guess I should’ve mentioned that I’m expecting that, but obviously who knows

  7. Jolt In Flow says:
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    Grey, it’s concerning to me that your top 4 players, 7 of your first 8, 9 of 11, and 13 of your first 16 players are from the s?nior circuit. Concerning indeed (for the strength of the AL, not for me).

    I’m hoping brighter days are ahead in the 20-40 range with more junior circuit flavor.

    Thanks for the posts.

    Jolt

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      No problem! AL’s been waning for years

  8. Vacation says:
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    Damn. Really expected to see Ozzie Albies in the top 20.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He was super close

  9. FrankGrimes says:
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    Why do you keep ignoring my texts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      You texted me? I’d be so happy to get a Grimey text

  10. The Great Knoche says:
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    I mean, you had to move Mondesi up at least one spot from his normal #20 right?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I kinda wanted to move him up to around Bichette, but I knew everyone would be bagging on me and I can’t take that kinda criticism…Plus, he might hit .240

  11. Whatever says:
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    What is considered a good min/max innings range for a 12 team mixed league?

    Hope all is well with you Grey.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      1000-1400

      You too!

  12. Joe says:
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    Happy to see mondesi still gives you wet dreams even though you wake up disappointed from them and wonder if it wasn’t a wet dream but instead you just pissed yourself. Anyway! 7×7 12 team dynasty league. Pick a side A or B

    A:
    Lux
    Austin wells

    B:
    Kebryan Hayes
    AJ Puk

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Mondesi is so good, Joe!

      B

  13. hot corner says:
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    Interesting that you have Bieber and Cole above DeGrom.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He’s right there too, just didn’t feel like putting three starters in the top 20 while telling everyone to ignore them

  14. Coolwhip says:
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    Well, well, well… Look who ended up moving Machado to 15th – HA! And you thought I was a bit bullish at #20-22. Frankly, Greyly, I’m a little hurt you didn’t mention me in the blurb with as much time as I spend stan’ing him last year. Donkey gets all the shoutouts! And he’s an ass.

    Another thing to point out is last “year” he had career bests in K%, OBP, and OPS… some of that is likely the small sample, but his reduced K-rate was over 5%. That’s at least partially due to the Padres new hitting philosophy at work I outlined. This was true for Hosmer, Myers (who I’m doing next), and Tatis as well.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nice, yeah, I’m a believer…Just needed to suppress all the anecdotal nonsense about Saberhagenmetrics, which don’t exist…right? No, they don’t. I can’t let them influence me…or can I? No!

      • Coolwhip says:
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        LOL. question everything, even this question. what? yes.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, questions by me keep me on my toes…?

          • The Great Knoche says:
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            Well considering Machado performs at around 100th overall on player rater everytime he is in the top 20 I’m out!

            • Coolwhip says:
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              ha!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              That’s the kind of logic that’s gonna get us into trouble

        • Dave D says:
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          Actually, CW, Grey only rated Manny there because I drafted him in our Razzball NFBC early DC. I overpaid and drafted him at #17, so this is just ginormous hyperbolic sympathy card. The great part is I drafted him last year and it did not help my horrid ERA and WHIP. Zach Davies is gone from Petco as well. We are still in collective mourning about that one aren’t we?

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Not my usual style to defend Davies, but even outside of Petco he was usable

            • Coolwhip says:
              (link)

              I am a little mourning for it. But I’m waffling in my head a bit that it might be a wash. He doesn’t have the great offense and Petco behind him anymore, but he does go the NL Central that could be the worst division in baseball this season. Sooooo, maybe it comes out the same. He’s basically a Hendricks clone. I will call him the Junior Hendricks Experience(TM).

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Yeah, I don’t like him in shallower leagues — like 12 team, but as a flyer for a deep league for IP and maybe ratio help, I don’t mind him

          • Hernan says:
            (link)

            Can you believe one of those Early NFBC teams have TWO top 11 players in their roster???, the YeliBelli Experience!!!!, watch out!!!!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              I know, “but no Taijuan Walker” — what Dave’s thinking

              • Hernan says:
                (link)

                I guess he’s going to have to wait for March’s Grey for Taijuan’s Rankings…..

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Haha, might come even after that if Walker doesn’t sign somewhere

                  • Dave D says:
                    (link)

                    Haha! You Taijuan will be a Halo!!!

            • Smitty says:
              (link)

              Burritos counting on a couple of bounce-backs, too much jalapeno! Time will tell, like C-Dub and Garver, haha. DD still love Davies in CHC?

  15. Scott Kimmel says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    Someone wants my Bregman for their Ozuna. Make the deal or hold?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sounds fair, I’d prolly hold

      • Scott Kimmel says:
        (link)

        this is the guys team:

        C Francisco Mejia (TB) $6.00
        C *Wilson Ramos () $24.00
        1B/2B/3B Wilmer Flores (SF) $5.00
        1B Yuli Gurriel (HOU) $33.00
        1B Eric Hosmer (SD) $32.00
        1B/2B/3B/SS Ryan McMahon (COL) $6.00
        1B/OF *Danny Santana () $6.00
        1B Christian Walker (ARI) $6.00
        2B Luis Arraez (MIN) $6.00
        2B/3B Eduardo Escobar (ARI) $33.00
        2B/SS Josh Rojas (ARI) $6.00
        3B Josh Donaldson (MIN) $40.00
        SS Carlos Correa (HOU) $40.00
        OF Randy Arozarena (TB) $5.00
        OF Kole Calhoun (ARI) $6.00
        OF Avisail Garcia (MIL) $6.00
        OF Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. (TOR) $17.00
        OF Max Kepler (MIN) $28.00
        OF Tim Lopes (SEA) $5.00
        OF Brandon Nimmo (NYM) $26.00
        OF *Marcell Ozuna () $41.00
        OF *George Springer () $39.00
        UT *Edwin Encarnacion () $6.00
        SP Shane Bieber (CLE) $35.00
        SP/RP Brandon Bielak (HOU) $5.00
        SP Mike Clevinger (SD) IL (+) $48.00
        SP *Mike Fiers () $6.00
        SP Jack Flaherty (STL) $43.00
        SP Tyler Glasnow (TB) $28.00
        SP Marco Gonzales (SEA) $18.00
        SP Dallas Keuchel (CWS) $33.00
        SP Miles Mikolas (STL) $34.00
        SP Frankie Montas (OAK) $6.00
        SP David Peterson (NYM) $5.00
        SP Zach Plesac (CLE) $5.00
        SP Trent Thornton (TOR) $6.00
        SP Framber Valdez (HOU) $5.00
        SP Austin Voth (WAS) $5.00
        SP Luke Weaver (ARI) $28.00
        SP Brandon Woodruff (MIL) $6.00
        RP Jalen Beeks (BOS) $5.00
        RP Zack Britton (NYY) $35.00
        RP *Andrew Chafin () $5.00
        RP Aroldis Chapman (NYY) $44.00
        RP Emmanuel Clase (CLE) $5.00
        RP Josh Hader (MIL) $35.00
        RP Hunter Harvey (BAL) $6.00
        RP *Brad Peacock () $20.00
        RP *Chaz Roe () $5.00
        RP *Trevor Rosenthal () $5.00
        RP Ryan Stanek (HOU) $5.00
        RP *Kirby Yates () $40.00

        Who on his team would you trade Bregman for? Arozareana, L. Gurriel and Bieber are not available

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          How much does Bregman cost?

          • Scott Kimmel says:
            (link)

            $35

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          This team doesn’t have any great fits… Ozuna is fair… Do you need SPs? Woodruff or Plesac with Framber?

          • Scott Kimmel says:
            (link)

            my pitching

            SP *Trevor Bauer () $35.00
            SP Yu Darvish (SD) $33.00
            SP Deivi Garcia (NYY) $5.00
            SP Clayton Kershaw (LAD) $29.00
            SP Lance McCullers, Jr. (HOU) $27.00
            SP/RP Tristan McKenzie (CLE) $5.00
            SP Casey Mize (DET) $5.00
            SP Chris Paddack (SD) $6.00
            SP Chris Sale (BOS) IL $42.00
            SP Max Scherzer (WAS) $47.00
            SP Luis Severino (NYY) IL $33.00
            SP Julio Urias (LAD) $6.00

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Okay, what do you need?

              • Scott Kimmel says:
                (link)

                i would be looking for OF and SP

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Your SPs look pretty stacked — what’s your OF look like?

                  • Scott Kimmel says:
                    (link)

                    1B/OF Cody Bellinger (LAD) $29.00
                    OF *Michael Brantley () $30.00
                    OF Adam Eaton (CWS) $17.00
                    OF J.D. Martinez (BOS) $39.00
                    OF Luis Robert (CWS) $5.00
                    OF Kyle Tucker (HOU) $5.00

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Your team is stacked, huh? I guess you could use an OF more — Who is filling for Bregman if he’s gone?

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
                      (link)

                      Jose Ramirez and Bohm

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Damn, your team is solid — I’d take Ozuna

                  • Scott Kimmel says:
                    (link)

                    should I ask for Ozuna and a pitcher or am I asking for too much

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I’d try it, what do you have to lose?

  16. Harley Earl says:
    (link)

    Please show your ranking of Roberts to Itch and tell him he’s going to owe me dinner after the season. Dude still thinks Arozarena is the better prospect. WRONG.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I just hope people can go to dinners after the season

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Wait, are you guys going to dinner together or does he buy you dinner separate from where you are, like by Venmo?

        • Harley Earl says:
          (link)

          That’s a good question. We haven’t gotten that far. I was hoping he’d take me to Wendy’s for a spicy chicken combo and a frosty.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Throw in a chili if he’s paying

            • Harley Earl says:
              (link)

              Oh, he’ll be paying. He’ll definitely be paying!

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Well, then get the chili add-on

  17. Son

    Son says:
    (link)

    MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP MEEP MEEEP MEEEEEEP MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEPPPPPPPPP

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Son knows what’s up

  18. imyournerd says:
    (link)

    Great content as always!

    Question, for the Patreon access to your rankings, do they come with the awesome blurbs you write up for every player, or is it just a spreadsheet with stat projections?

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! It has all the rankings and write ups

  19. cyler8 says:
    (link)

    It’s the most wonderful time of the year!!!! (Screams like little girl)

    In a 10 team dynasty keeper league 6 X 6 with OPS and QS would you rather keep Mitch Keller or Daulton Varsho? It’s Yahoo so Varsho will have C eligibility. Here are my other keepers currently to give an idea of fit:

    Rizzo
    Bregman
    Trea Turner
    Trevor Story
    Mike Trout
    Kyle Tucker
    Jose Ramirez
    Victor Robles
    George Springer
    Jack Flaherty
    Ian Anderson

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Haha, They are so close, I want Keller for upside

      • cyler8 says:
        (link)

        My man I was thinking exactly the same thing. Makes it so much better when I see the world through the eyes of Grey. Except when I see what he does alone in the bathroom. (Shudders)

        Thank you!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Haha, hey!

  20. 406mtechdigger says:
    (link)

    Great stuff! Trade Questions…..

    12 Teamer H2H Points League
    $1000 draft budget
    Keep whoever you want with progressive cost each year
    20-40-60-80-100-125-150-175-200 etc

    His Bichette ($60) for my Kyle Lewis ($20). I have 4 other OF’s I’m keeping and Boegarts at $80 if I want. Do you pull the trigger? also….

    His Biggio ($60) for my Grisham ($20)?

    Appreciate any input

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks!

      I’d take Bichette and Grisham, but if I were keeping Xander, not sure why you’d want Bichette too, so I guess hold

  21. I Just Want A Shot says:
    (link)

    I used to let others pay for aces but trends in pitching of late have me wondering. Looks like any SP who isn’t an ace like performer is lucky to get 4-5 innings/start before getting yanked at the slightest sign of trouble. The lower in the rotation the shorter the leash. Bullpens are now stocked with multi-innings types who replaced the old loogies/roogies and one-IP-and-done types. I’m not sure what to make of the trend, It seems the most obvious from a fantasy perspective is it elevates the value of the premier SPs. I checked ADPs and SPs are making up close to 40% of their top 30. Didn’t that used to be around 25% before the change? How are you viewing this trend.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nah, look at last year’s player rater — if you have a bunch of guys getting 150 IP vs. a bunch of guys getting 200 IP then pitchers are more of a crapshoot…Think about it this way, if Blake Snell throws 160 IP and Gerrit Cole throws 200 IP, it’s a 40 inning spread to accumulate wins and Ks, but if Cole threw 220 IP, it would be a 60 IP spread and be more valuable…More guys near 150 IP the better to punt

      • Will says:
        (link)

        Realistically though for 2021 – how many guys are even going to come close to 200 innings given the 60 game season last year? More like a cap at 150 innings for everyone?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Agreed, which makes pitching less predictable, not more

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Look at how good Lamet did last year, in 60 IP, that makes sense…If he had 120 IP and the top guys had 220 IP, Lamet wouldn’t have been nearly as valuable

      • I Just Want A Shot says:
        (link)

        Thanks. Solid points, especially about the reduced workloads we’re likely to see from all SPs this season.

  22. 183414 says:
    (link)

    Based on your projections, Bellinger should be ranked above Trout. I’d be happy with Bellinger @10.
    Love Bieber, but he’s going to have to be just as good this year to get as good of a winning percentage. Indians just not as good w/out Lindor.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, but Cody has more risk

    • Smitty says:
      (link)

      Miss ya Andrew

  23. Kevin Despard says:
    (link)

    Great Article! Huge fan, been following you for a few years now (which has helped me with 3 straight league title!). Sorry for the long question, but our league is a little unique
    10 team Roto Auction League. For 2021 we will have 7 keepers (it increase by 1 each year). Their price increases $5 per year from their original draft price if you keep them. FA are $1. $270 total cap
    Last year we froze 2019 prices with the unknown of the 2020 season, so all prices are based on 2019 values. My team is stacked so I am having trouble deciding on keeper 5-7 based on their value.

    Here are my for sure keepers and their 2021 price:
    Acuna $18
    Juan Soto $6
    Yodan Alvarez $1 (if off the waiver wire, they stay at $1 the following year, he was picked up of waivers for $1 in 2019)
    Mondesi $6

    Here is where I need help, can freeze/keep 3 of the following for the price listed:
    Bregman $16
    Devers $15
    Bauer $11

    Woodruff $9
    Story $33
    Semien $1
    Nola $27
    E. Rod $10
    Soler $1

    I am leaning Bregman, Devers, and Bauer, but wanted to see if you or anyone else am seeing something I am not seeing. I will have a lot of need for pitching, even if I keep Bauer, but will have money to focus on pitching in the draft.

    Thoughts?

    Kevin D

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks!

      Bregman, Devers, Bauer, for sure — only question is Bregman and Story, but take extra money and re-buy him if you want him

      • Kevin D says:
        (link)

        Thank you very much! Sounds like a plan, now i will concentrate on finding a ton of pitching since my offense will be pretty deep!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  24. The Muppets: We couldn’t wait for that show to come on. We always talked about how HIGH this show would go! Nothing but pure laughter and smoke coming out of our ears! Great work as always and now is the best time of the year! Fantasy rankings by Grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Agreed, one of the best! Thanks!

  25. TC says:
    (link)

    Which four guy combo moving forward in a keep forever roto?
    Trout, Hiura, Scherzer, and Bauer or
    Y.Alvarez, Albies, C.Seager, and Gallen

    Just wondering your thoughts on the better side and why.
    Thanks man!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hmm…Tough call…I think I go Trout, highest guy overall, but two SPs wouldn’t be my preference

      • TC says:
        (link)

        Does it change knowing if I give the Trout side, I’d get back my round 1,2, and 4 picks. 150 guys are kept in a 10 teamer. A couple teams will have to throw back some decent players.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, that changes things, it’s close enough where I could see going with Albies/Yordan

  26. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey! So, no hesitations if you can swap your $19 Bieber for a $12 boba in a keep forever league, right?

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      No, I wouldn’t do that

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        And, hey, I love boba

        • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
          (link)

          Thanks. So you’d want someone with more of a track record, like if I could somehow swing for Trea for example.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            I read that as “Swing for tea” still thinking of boba — yeah, I’d want a bat with some track record

            • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
              (link)

              Now I’m thirsty!

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Haha

  27. Player X says:
    (link)

    No Randy Dandy Arozarena in the top 20?!?! Lol just kidding. Thanks for the work!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      No problem!

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        And Randy wasn’t in consideration, sad emoji

    • Smitty says:
      (link)

      Like Randy in the top 60

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Randy for Randy

  28. Smitty says:
    (link)

    Just got power back after 24+ hrs, we definitely take a lot for granted until it’s gone – freakin crazy hurricane force winds around here! Anyway, got right back on for more Greytness – love Bo and Mondy but pretty impossible to secure both. Yelly and Belly are definite bounce-backs to consider, but not as high on the Harper/Machado/Arenado power group. Thanks Grey stay well!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks, man! You too!

  29. Let’s Play Two says:
    (link)

    JRam and Yelich R and RBI projections seem lofty. Their lineups don’t inspire.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Good man, how are you?

      • krazyivan says:
        (link)

        Moving back up Northeast. Living in the same place for 15 years and uprooting is a B but it’s all good.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ugh, moving is the worst…Literally anything but moving…Well, anything but corona and moving

  30. Earl says:
    (link)

    My man Grey.

    Question for ya?

    For rotissierre (not talking chicken here), do you give any merit to punting a category and trying to do really well in the others instead. Or do you always favour a more balanced approach to maybe not aim to win any of the categories but say finish top 4 or 5 in most of them.

    Thanks

Comments are closed.