Are the top 20 1st basemen for 2023 fantasy baseball good? How do you define good? Is good definable? Are you Plato? What is a Plato? Any hoo! This post goes on for about 1.8 million words, so let’s dive in. Here’s Steamer’s 2023 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2023 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. The projections noted in this post are my own, and I mention where tiers start and stop. Subscriptions are up and running, and you can already get Rudy’s Draft War Room. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2023 fantasy baseball:

NOTE I: All my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.

NOTE II: Free agents are listed as just that and not yet projected. Once a guy signs, I will write out their blurb and add in projections, or remove them, if they sign in an unfavorable place. They are ranked currently where I think they might be if they sign on for a full-time job.

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Already went over him in the top 20 for 2023 fantasy baseball.

2. Freddie Freeman – Already went over him in the top 20 for 2023 fantasy baseball.

3. Pete Alonso – Already went over him in the top 20 for 2023 fantasy baseball.

4. Paul Goldschmidt – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Olson. I call this tier, “Blindfolded on an elevator of a three story building and you’re on floor two.” Put on a blindfold. I want you to for science. Okay, now have Jan from HR take you to the elevator. Okay, are you there? How did you answer when you’re clearly still reading this and not freakin’ blindfolded! You lied to me! So, if you’re on an elevator blindfolded, you don’t know if you’re going up or down. That’s this tier. There’s also only one floor up or down you can go. I considered the guys in this tier for the tier above and tier below, but couldn’t convince myself either way which way to go, so they’re here. Clearly, Au Shizz almost went up, and Allahson almost went down, but not really. Down is a huge drop to the next tier. In the end, here they are.

As for Goldschmidt, he’s coming off an MVP year that might’ve sealed his career for the Hall of Fame. Kinda wild to think back to 2013, I ranked Au Shizz in the top 20 overall, and people had a conniption, thinking I was possibly the dumbest person on the planet. Turned out I was the dumbest person, but not because of that, as he went on to go 36/15/.302 and a star was born. Me, not Goldschmidt. Okay, him too. Also, that makes both of us very old. More like Oldschmidt. High five me! Right now! No? Okay. 2023 Projections: 94/29/105/.291/7 in 554 ABs

5. Matt Olson – What’s also similar about these two guys is Goldschmidt just won the NL MVP as a dark horse coming into the year, and, if I wanted to make a silly bet, I’d bet Olson wins the NL MVP in 2023. I won’t actually bet it, and jinx the bet, so you’re free to do it. I won’t project Olson for those numbers, but he’s absolutely capable of 50 homers, .270 average, 120 runs and 130+ RBIs. Just an insane year. Also, with his strikeouts going up, he’s capable of a 30-homer, .220 average year too. If you were to just look at his Statcast page, you’d think he was better last year than the year before, but, alas, his average fell by 30 points and his homers by five. Still have a huge amount of hope, and realistically he should be very solid, and not awful, i.e., pray to the east as Allahson is very safe for production. 2023 Projections: 92/37/111/.246/1 in 587 ABs

6. Nathaniel Lowe – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Hoskins. I call this tier, “Happily in the puzzle aisle of a toy store.” I used to love puzzles. That was my jam when I was a kid and an absolute, bonafide nerd. “I see you have the new ‘Polar bear in all-white doctor scrubs operating on the Invisible Man’ puzzle. That will be my next challenge.” That’s me in KB Toy Store right before getting beat up the kids there to buy sporting goods. Any hoo! This tier is a fun, challenging puzzle that I’m excited about. See next tier for the flip side of the coin. Also, one general note about 1st basemen, this is the biggest gap in 1st basemen tiers that I can remember. I haven’t done my top 100 overall yet, but Olson’s gonna be around 40, and Lowe won’t be until around 80. That’s a huge difference.

As for Lowe, he changed in exactly the way you want to see from two years ago to last year. Got way more aggressive — 22.8% O-Swing to 30.5%; 44.6% Swing% to 52.2%, and held most of his contact. Hitting a ton of balls outside the zone isn’t exactly a recipe for success, but his contact in the zone went up too, and it shows you that a guy can be too patient — Lowe in 2021 with a 12.5% walk rate — and cut his strikeouts. The slight concern is what if he keeps going with the aggressiveness and hits more pitchers’ pitches? His average could bottom out and his power. Here’s to him just repeating. 2023 Projections: 86/26/94/.277/5 in 579 ABs

7. Jose Abreu – Here’s what I said when he signed, “The Astros got their new Cuban. Astros, for real, have a pipeline down there in Houston where they glue together a bunch of Cohibas into the shape of a scarecrow, call it a 1st baseman, and pitchers are shook. Have the Astros ever had a none Cuban 1st baseman? Don’t name Bagwell. His real name was Jefe Plaintain. Few people know that, but now you do. So, the Astros got their new Cuban first baseman, kinda the same as their old Cuban first baseman, Aledmys Diaz. Wait, I mean, Yuli Gurriel. Wait, Yordan played 1st–Okay, my point’s been made, but Abreu likely isn’t that different than Gurriel, if being honest, and the Crawford Boxes could add 7-10 dingers onto the Dongcake from Chicago, and be icing on top of his decent average and good counting stats sandwich.” And that’s me quoting me! Also, go over him in the video at the top of the page. 2023 Projections: 83/26/109/.273 in 581 ABs

8. Christian Walker – The puzzle here is figuring out if his previous year is repeatable. After much deliberation, I bought in hook, line and *holding my nose, worried for a stinker*.  His Launch Angle is solid for him, and, more specifically, him hitting homers. Will Walker become a .250+ hitter? I doubt it. He kinda looks like Rhys Hoskins, but with more power in his immediate rear. For those who googled “more power in his immediate rear” and found us, welcome! We won’t judge you, but you might be looking for a different type of fantasy. The Ks went down, walks went up with fly balls. If he can maintain his career HR/FB%, which he should, he should be able to repeat. 2023 Projections: 79/33/87/.240/2 in 564 ABs

9. Vinnie Pasquantino – “Ay yo, it’s Vinnie Pasketti of the Staten Island Paskettis, and I was wondering if you’ve seen my house during the holidays, it’s the one with Virgin Mary in an Italian flag t-shirt. Ay oh, I know what you’re thinkin’, but it’s very tasteful. So, last year was my rookie year, ay yo, fresh-faced, Vinnie, ya know what I mean? People think I’m all power, but I hit .295 with a 11.4% strikeout rate, that’s so good the only thing better is my mama’s lasagna. The 10 homers I hit, bada boom, prorated out is 20 homers, which sounds like nothing, but I got the power of thousand Camaros. Ay yo, thank you for your time.” One word of note about ADP, I don’t think I’m drafting Vinnie Pasketti this year, because, while I like him, his ADP is higher in some places than I want to go. The good thing is, I could see a site like ESPN or Yahoo being way too low on Vinnie Pasketti, and him being a sleeper at those there places. Okay, I need to stop talking like I’m from Staten Island now. 2023 Projections: 71/27/82/.279/1 in 533 ABs

10. Rhys Hoskins – His Launch Angle was too steep, which made his batting average prone to dramatically garbagey averages, but then last year he changed his Launch Angle a bit, and it was less steep and his average went from .247 to .246. El oh el. His last few averages are .245, .247, and .246. That means this year will be .244 or .248. Guaranteed. Besides his averages always being the same, his power numbers are always around 30 homers, and his steals around three and…2023 Projections: 84/31/77/.245/3 in 584 ABs

11. C.J. Cron – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until France. I call this tier, “The entire ‘Polar bear in scrubs operating on the Invisible Man’ is complete, but I’m missing one key piece.” This tier is guys who I considered for the tier above, but there was something missing that stopped me, so I dropped them down a rung. They are equally puzzling, but I fell on the side of being slightly more negative for them. You can’t be out on any 1st basemen, because the position is a mess, but I’m definitely lukewarm on these guys.

As for Cron, in the 2nd half, Curtis Jackson Cron hit about as well as 50 Cent throws. Singing a’la 50 Cent, “I’ll take you to the Candy Shop,” because drafting C.J. Cron makes you an all-day sucker. Maybe. 2nd halves are tough to ignore, because there’s the general feeling what a guy did in the 2nd half he will continue right into the 1st half and never stop. How’sever, he could easily do what he did in the 1st half again, and be great, then tail off again in the 2nd half again. That has not been Cron’s career norms, though, so I’m hesitant to write-off his 2nd half, like me writing off baseball games. At the end of the day, and this blurb, he still puts up similar numbers year after year. 2023 Projections: 71/28/86/.251 in 543 ABs

12. Ryan Mountcastle – He would’ve had 40 homers if he called Cincy home. He hit 22. BBC should renew Mountcastle for another season just so he can get to the bottom of where Baltimore moved their left field fence. “That’s not a foul line heading out to the foul pole, that’s a chalk outline of all the fly balls that died at the warning track.” That’s Mountcastle talking to his trusty confidant, Santander. I like Mountcastle, but that park would’ve even kept Roger Maris as the AL Home Run record holder over Judge. Move the fences back in, you absolute ghouls! 2023 Projections: 74/24/88/.253/5 in 558 ABs

13. Andrew Vaughn – After the top two tiers, just about every first baseman is in the 30-homer, meh average mold. Like every 1st baseman modeled their careers after the once-great Richie “Big Sexy” Sexson. By the way, a few Richie Sexson factoids. I thought he was the best example of a home run hitter with a meh average from ten years ago, but then I checked. He was a career .261 hitter! He’d be better than most of these 1st basemen. Also, I thought he played in the last ten years, oops, wrongo! He last played in 2008. He’s been retired for 15 years, and he’s still only 48 years old! Retired with $50 million! Any hoo! Vaughn is the first guy who doesn’t fit the Big Sexy mold. Wonder if the humidor hurt the White Sox more than other teams. Not sure why, but their entire team looked like it was from a dead ball era. Maybe with La Russa retired to a farm upstate–Wait, he didn’t retire to a barn, it says here he retired to a bar. Uh-oh. Vaughn might be able to find more power, but his Launch Angle is terrible and it would take an entire change of approach. 2023 Projections: 73/18/82/.264 in 554 ABs

14. Ty France – Puts on France’s National Anthem, marches to Au Bon Pain, demands extra dipping jus with my French Dip and tells them Ty France is my boss and sent me. They tell me they don’t serve my kind, my kind being the kind that likes good hitters. Yo, what happened to Ty France, though? Seriously, his numbers were ugly. Wonder if he could actually get worse on his Launch Angle and become a 12-homer hitter. He actually hit worse last year with no shift, which kinda made me laugh, but it was also in only 2.1% of his at-bats, so a silly small sample size. I thought France was as good as it baguettes, but his exit velocity is also kinda like the taste in your mouth after you barf. 2023 Projections: 73/18/79/.271 in 562 ABs

15. Jose Miranda – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Brown. This tier is called, “Please, deity of choice, can I have some upside?” I’m shoving a turkey baster up the rankings’ anal cavity and injecting some upside. By the way, I said ‘anal cavity’ in my wedding vows. Am I the only person in the history of the world to slide that phrase into their wedding vows? I like to think so. Okay, I’ll give you some context. For my vows, I said I’d like to take a page from the Meatloaf songbook. As with his song, I’ll Do Anything For Love (But I Won’t Do That), I listed a bunch of things I won’t do for love. One of those things I said I won’t do is smuggle drugs in my dog’s anal cavity across international borders. Any hoo! As you can kinda sense from my rankings, I’m not super excited for the 1st basemen from Cron to France (a terrible drive, by the way, should’ve taken a train), so here’s some 1st basemen that are more corner men that I’m excited about.

As for Miranda, here’s my Jose Miranda sleeper. I wrote it while practicing my oboe. 2023 Projections: 79/22/90/.283/1 in 551 ABs

16. Rowdy Tellez – Already gave you my Rowdy Tellez sleeper. It had major daddy issues. 2023 Projections: 71/36/91/.251/1 in 533 ABs

17. Anthony Rizzo – HR to the Izzo went back to the Yanks this offseason, and I have some insight into how he came to that decision. I dressed as a fly and clung to his wall while he talked to his agent. Rizzo said, “I like playing for the Yanks. It’s a good stadium,” and his agent said, “Let me check in with the Pirates to see if they have money to match the Yanks–Kidding! Yanks can also pay you more than anyone else.” And then Rizzo screamed, “There’s a 5-foot, six-and-three-quarter-inch fly on my wall!” And I jumped out of his window.  2023 Projections: 74/29/78/.226/7 in 481 ABs

18. Alec Bohm – Can look at him one way and see a 20/7/.290 season, and look at him another way and see 15/5/.270, and that doesn’t sound like a huge difference, but it might be the difference between him being a top 15 overall 1st baseman and top 25. I’m choosing to look at him mostly like the 1st way, and hope Bohm goes the dynamite. 2023 Projections: 81/18/75/.286/6 in 591 ABs

19. Seth Brown – Already gave you my Seth Brown sleeper. It wrote itself. Hmm, maybe it was a ghost. 2023 Projections: 69/28/81/.238/9 in 539 ABs

20. Josh Bell – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Cronenworth. I call this tier, “Larry David’s meh face.” The tier name is pretty self-explanatory. These guys might be interesting to some other fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!), but I’m not interested unless it’s a deep league and you’re going more for at-bats than excitement.

As for Bell, here’s what I said when he signed with the Guardians, “Solid landing spot with Cleveland, the home of the Rock ‘n Roll Hall of Fame. They’ll appreciate him since you can’t have Rock ‘n Roll without more Bell. Cue The Reaper! Don’t fear it, at least. Progressive won’t help Bell, but nowhere was going to with his Launch Angle. Surprising too, because if you’ve ever seen him, he seems to have a pretty upper-cutty swing, but it beats everything into the ground. His career 31.2% FB rate is so blech, and his Hard Contact is almost as bad. It’s a solid landing spot though, because Cleveland doesn’t buy high-priced free agents, so they’re playing him 162 games, if he’s healthy and in the middle of the lineup. Blue Oyster Cult’s new single about using the Bell, (Don’t Fear) Counting Stats.” And that’s me quoting me! 2023 Projections: 71/19/83/.261 in 563 ABs

21. Brandon Drury – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Angels. The Angels made a bunch of mid-range moves this offseason. No, big ones. I guess, why bid on the Judge when you can buy off the Drury? *cringe* So, the Angels just went and got Urshela, but I guess they’ve realized they can’t count on Rendon for anything. Smart thinking! Drury is a bit puzzling. He’s always been able to hit, just has not always hit, if you follow. I won’t discount what he did entirely last year in my projections, but he feels like a guy who will go 15/.240 and be a total bust.” And that’s me quoting me! 2023 Projections: 61/21/67/.258/3 in 509 ABs

22. Joey Meneses – Remember Luke Voit’s ranking after his “huge” 2020? That was two months and Meneses is that time of month, and I can’t understand how so many people who I think are smart are being taken in by Meneses this preseason. For reals, it’s not just big ol’ dummies who like Meneses this preseason, and it’s got me scratching my head, wondering if I’m wrong, but let’s just say when I saw Steamer’s projections for him at 29 homers, I choked on a boba and spit it across the room like Keith Hernandez spitting on Kevins, Kramer and Newman. 2023 Projections: 68/20/74/.261/2 in 576 ABs

23. Luis Arraez – He’s a giant in the Land of Batting Average Little People. Better than a mid-sized person in a Land of Giants or a Giant in the Land of Giants. Or a Twin in a Land of Hope Solo. Wait…That last one might be okay. UPDATE: Traded to the Marlins. You could put Arraez on any team and he’s be Arraez. You can move him to the moon and he’d be–well, the moon might play more hitter friendly. I need to see the moon’s park factors. How does Tesla Stadium on the Moon play? With no gravity, it’s gotta be good for power. Okay, anyway, off topic, Arraez is a .310 hitter anywhere and has zippo power and speed. Enjoy! 2023 Projections: 93/7/53/.312/5 in 557 ABs

24. Jake Cronenworth – For each and every player, I go to their lineup depth chart to see what a guy’s runs and RBIs might look like. Things change for everyone, due to injuries, and manager’s peccadillos, but it feels like Cronenworth’s runs and RBIs matter more than most and his spot in the Padres’ lineup feels more tenuous than most, for what it’s him. 2023 Projections: 79/18/78/.247/5 in 571 ABs

25. Triston Casas – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Yepez. I call this tier, “Norman Lear at The Vow screening.” In November, I went to a screening of The Vow, the cult doc on HBO. After the screening, they had a Q&A. There was a few of the cult members who got away with only brandings, and Norman Lear was there because his wife produced it. So I was excited to see Norman Lear, and went up to him afterwards to say I was a big fan and maybe take a picture, but he was surrounded by cult members, who were very emotional, so I told him, “You’re so great,” as people sobbed around him, and it was really not a great time for a pic. Or a great time to be saying anyone was great. It was super awkward. That’s this tier. There might be some fun moments, but you might be left sobbing that you didn’t draft someone better.

As for Casas, already gave you a Triston Casas fantasy. It was written while staying in my Lavender Haze.  2023 Projections: 57/19/66/.243/1 in 471 ABs

26. Josh Naylor – “Naylor, in the bathroom, with a flirtatious stare.” Damn, Colonel Mustard, only needed one Clue; nice one, DeJong. So, Naylor’s had a 16.1% strikeout rate and solid exit velocity. Not spectacular, and has no speed. He feels like a guy with just a slightly higher Launch Angle who could take his game to the moon, literally. As it stands now, he hits a few too many ground balls with no speed that could bottom out his game. Though, the shift ending doesn’t hurt. Hey, there’s some optimism here, but let’s be honest, there’s a reason why he’s not ranked higher. Plus, he likely won’t see lefties. 2023 Projections: 56/18/64/.259/2 in 434 ABs

27. Wil Myers – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed by the Reds. You know that Kombucha Girl meme? A girl looks like something is good, then bad, then rethinks and it is good, then, after all, it’s not good. That’s this signing for me. Cincy makes every hitter better. Though, Myers is so bleh. Though, Part II, They Keep Making More Of Thoughs: Cincy even made Drury good! Though, Part III, Though’s Revenge: Wil Myers will absolutely be traded by the end of July and become a part-time player.” And that’s me quoting me! 2023 Projections: 49/18/53/.246/5 in 403 ABs

28. Brendan Donovan – In almost 400 ABs last year, Donovan hit .281 with a 15% strikeout rate. He’s got about as much power and speed as Luis Arraez, but close to his hit tool too. He’s a cheap Arraez. Call him Roni. Ya know, a cheap “a-rice” to Roni? No? Yeah, you’re prolly right. 2023 Projections: 69/8/51/.286/7 in 470 ABs

29. Alex Kirilloff –  Keeping it real for a second here, if you’re a lefty, you have a 75% of getting platooned whether it makes sense or not, and that sucks. Though, Kirilloff might just suck. So much suck…Wait a group of sucks is a straw! “Hey!” That’s Myles Straw. UPDATED: Due to the trade of Arraez, Kirilloff moved to a near-full-time 1st baseman. 2023 Projections: 57/19/62/.261/3 in 473 ABs

30. Juan Yepez – *puts on Naughty by Nature, waves hands in air* Yepez…Hooray…Ho…Hey…Ho…Hey…*five hours later*…hey…So, as I was saying, Yepez has a 27-homer bat and a hit tool that wouldn’t be embarrassed seen around Arraez-a-Roni. It’s pretty wild he’s sat in the minors since 2015, and a little disconcerting, tee be aitch, but he was a 24-homer, .255 hitter last year, his rookie year, if you prorate his 12 homers in half a year. 2023 Projections: 49/16/56/.262 in 364 ABs

31. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Votto. I call this tier, “Sweatpants.” What I mean by the tier name is once you start wearing sweatpants, they’re comfortable and you keep wearing them. Then, in three years, you look back on the last years of your 30s and you realize you wore sweatpants for the last three years and have all but given up on life. This tier could be okay, and you might feel comfortable with them, but you won’t feel alive owning them.

As for Gurriel, here’s what I saw this offseason, “Traded to the Diamondbacks. This should guarantee him everyday playing time. That’s good, right?! Right? Hmm…His line last year was 5/3, and doublechecked that to see if I was missing a zero or something. Or if I was looking at one week of his season. Aaron Judge had a better series in September than that line. Lou-Gu-Ju sounds like a Pokemon character and he’s starting to hit like one too.” And that’s me quoting me! 2023 Projections: 62/10/68/.281/5 in 477 ABs

32. Trey Mancini – Signed with the Cubs. Are the Cubs putting together a team to simply trade at the end of July? Because it’s beginning to feel that way. Actually don’t mind Mancini, in general, but a team going nowhere with one of the best corner infield prospects doesn’t go out and sign Mancini (and Hosmer) without thinking they’re having a yard sale in July. Mancini’s actually a two-year deal, so color me perplexed. 2023 Projections: 57/20/66/.241/1 in 471 ABs

33. Luke Voit – FREE AGENT 2023 Projections:

34. Yandy Diaz –  Call him The Newspaper, because his Statcast page is black and white and red all over. Yandy is an example of how it doesn’t matter how hard a guy hits the ball if it’s right into the ground. 2023 Projections: 52/10/58/.285 in 459 ABs

35. Jared Walsh – Guess how old he is. Go ahead, I’ll wait. *scratches chin, accidentally kills a Lilliputian that was living on chin, Lilliputian detective attempts to investigate but the system is corrupt and there’s Lilliputians in City Hall who don’t want to see the crime solved* 29 years old, about to turn 30! What took the Angels so long to promote him? They were waiting to see what they were going to get from Albert Pujols? If they would’ve cut Pujols sooner, he would’ve passed Bonds on the all-time homer list for the Cards. So, last year was a total wash, but not necessarily totally Walsh. Play on words points! How’sever, Walsh underwent thoracic outlet surgery, and it says he’ll be ready for Spring Training, but that surgery has had a lot of victims of “And he was never the same.” 2023 Projections: 49/14/52/.237/2 in 418 ABs

36. Wilmer Flores – It’s time to give Wilmer his Flores. He’s been much better in his jaunt to the bay, than anyone in the Mets’ organization likely thought was possible, and he cried for them, but he’s still not that good. He had a 46.4% fly ball rate and a 9.5% HR/FB. That is comically bad. 2023 Projections: 61/15/64/.234/1 in 412 ABs

37. Joey Votto – What’s funny in a very unfunny way that’s very nerdy, Votto always gets better projections than the production he actually does minus one year (2021). You know things are officially bad when you see his projections for this year are only 19 HRs with a .225 average, and you know that’s still too optimistic. When Votto gets into the Hall of Fame with, like, 2200 hits, 360-ish homers, and a .295 career average, you can chalk it up to writers just electing guys they like. 2023 Projections: 52/15/58/.220/1 in 441 ABs

38. Christian Vazquez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Dozier. I call this tier, “What’s a bunch of suck called?” A group of crows is called a murder; a group of cats a clowder; what’s a group of suck? If it’s not clear from the tier name, I don’t exactly love these guys as my corner man. For what it’s Cronenworth, if any of these guys have different eligibility–*cough* catcher *cough*–they might not be that bad at that position or if they actually get at-bats, I could like them a lot *cough* Mervis *cough*. As for Vazquez, already went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2023 fantasy baseball..

39. Matt Mervis – He’s in the video at the top of the page, and I still love him, but I’ve lowered him, due to offseason signings by the Cubs. The Hosmer signing? Well, I was able to convince myself that was nothing. A mere backup plan. Mancini? I don’t know what the eff the Cubs are doing. Sign players you need! Don’t sign players to block players you have! I lowered my projections on him since my Matt Mervis fantasy. The stuff I say in that post still pertains, but I had to shave 150 ABs off his line.  2023 Projections: 38/15/42/.254/1 in 381 ABs

40. Isaac Paredes – Seeing Paredes isn’t even a full-time player on the Rays, then seeing he hit 20 homers in only 331 ABs last year and dropping my eyes further down his page. Sadly, my eyes landed on he also hit .205. 2023 Projections: 41/18/46/.241 in 309 ABs

41. Spencer Torkelson – It’s irresponsible to prorate out his last week of at-bats when he hit two homers and .278, right? Not when he’s being drafted around 340 overall. Prorate away! 2023 Projections: 64/22/63/.217/1 in 486 ABs

42. Spencer Steer – Can everyone be a Cincy Redleg? Dumb Bell is well-named, because he’s an idiot, but he’s also the kind of idiot that helps us on occasion, playing insane upside plays like maybe Spencer Steer. Dumb Bell, “I’m the captain of this ship!” Bench coach, “So take the wheel!” Dumb looking around, seeing Steer and smiling. So, Steer could surprise with at-bats, and everyone has power in Cincy. UPDATE: With the Reds kicking Mostsuckass to the curb, I moved up Steer. 2023 Projections: 56/19/61/.223/2 in 466 ABs

43. Miguel Vargas – Not sure why I didn’t do a Miguel Vargas rookie outlook post. November Grey, “I know why, you giant jackhole! You didn’t trust the Dodgers to actually play a rookie. These teams get too big to fail and they forget what made them good to begin with, which was a fertile minor league system. Except for the Braves, they remember.” Hey, November Grey, I stopped listening after you called me “jackhole.” Vargas could go 20/7/.280, but I have serious doubts about the Dodgers playing him. November Grey, “That’s what I said, you idiot!” Do you hear something? I don’t. By the by, I had him ranked higher initially doing my rankings, but lowered him when it became more clear in January that the Dodgers aren’t going to play him. November Grey, “I’ve been saying this!” I don’t hear anything, do you? 2023 Projections: 37/10/32/.271/4 in 309 ABs

44. DJ LeMahieu – Member The Simpsons episode at Itchy & Scratchy Land theme park? They went to T.G.I. McScratchy’s Goodtime Foodrinkery where it was New Year’s Eve every day. The deejay in there is LeMahieu. Only instead of every day, it’s every year and it’s his stats that sound good in theory but you get halfway through the season and you’re like, “Please kill me.” 2023 Projections: 51/8/41/.268/3 in 361 ABs

45. Harold Ramirez – If you could bottle a no-power, no-speed, kinda-okay average hitter, the Rays might be interested in hearing more. 2023 Projections: 53/8/58/.276/4 in 409 ABs

46. Garrett Cooper – You know you absolutely suck when you’re penciled into the three hole of your team’s lineup and full-time at-bats and are projected for ten homers. 2023 Projections: 41/10/54/.254 in 424 ABs

47. Hunter Dozier – With the trade of Mondesi, Dozier was added into the rankings. Once upon a time Hunter Dozier and Christian Walker were joined at the hip in the rankings. Walker excelled last year and left Dozier in the dust. So, does Dustier have any chance to follow in Walker’s footsteps? Not even if he’s at the mall with the seniors at 7:30 AM. 2023 Projections: 56/15/63/.232/5 in 481 ABs

48. Matt Carpenter – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Sheets. I call this tier, “Platoon guys, or should be platoon guys.” I’m not talking Charlie Sheen and actors in Platoon, in case you were confused. As for Carpenter, here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Padres. Prolly the most toolsy hitter. Sorry, that was a bad pun, and has nothing to do with his actual ability. Practicing my DJ’ing. Sorry, that’s a bad pun too. DJ as in Dad Jokes. Hey, at least I copped to it, and well within my rights. Sorry, yup, also bad pun.” And that’s me quoting me! 2023 Projections: 51/16/56/.251/1 in 367 ABs

49. Eric Hosmer – Signed with the Cubs. Uhh, okay, but why? Hey, real question: What stage is denial? Because I’m currently trying to convince myself that Eric Hosmer goes to DH, shifts Wisdom to the bench, Morel to utility, Mancini to left, Happ to 3rd, and Matt Mervis is still an everyday 1st baseman. That’s what’s happening, right? RIGHT?! The other stage, bargaining, is what I’m counting on too, as in, let Jed Hoyer bargain with a team in June and trade Hosmer for anything! 2023 Projections: 39/10/41/.273/3 in 303 ABs

50. Ji-Man Choi – Went over him already, when he was traded to the Pirates, saying, “Thinking about Oneil Cruz firing a 120 MPH throw to first for Ji-Man Choi to go into one of his patented splits and getting giddy. For fantasy? Ji-Meh.” And that’s me quoting me! 2023 Projections: 51/14/62/.231 in 412 ABs

51. Jonathan Aranda –  Not only did he have a huge Triple-A season last year (18/4/.318 in 403 ABs), but if you say his name at your auction and cover your mouth a little, you might be able to get people to bid him way up, thinking he’s Arenado. “I’ll start the bidding at $30 for…*muffled* Aranda.” 2023 Projections: 48/12/52/.271/4 in 365 ABs

52. Christian Bethancourt – Already went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2023 fantasy baseball.

53. Aledmys Diaz – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Aledmys is a poor man’s Yuli Gurriel. Call him Lourdes. Ooh, low blow — that’s what she said never!” And that’s me quoting me! 2023 Projections: 57/14/63/.248/2 in 486 ABs

54. Jace Peterson – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the A’s. Financial terms were not known yet, but maybe he gave them a discount if they agreed to refer to themselves as the Oakland J-A’s. So, Peterson is the type of guy that the J-A’s will give the worst 500+ ABs you’ve ever seen. Hopefully not, but, then again, what else do they have?” And that’s me quoting me! 2023 Projections: 51/11/54/.228/14 in 429 ABs

55. J.D. Davis –  Giants are like Oliver asking for more gruel but they’re reaching their plate out under the Mets’ waiver wire moves. That’s so sad. Jonathan Davis Davis’s stats don’t look that bad for his short period of time on the Giants, but he’s gonna be 30 and all he has is small sample size seasons, because he never plays. 2023 Projections: 51/15/55/.258/2 in 393 ABs

56. Gavin Sheets – Because Sheets had a career year and still only hit 15 homers last year, people are way overdrafting him. There’s so many instances of things like this happening, even though I can’t think of one right now. If only I Gavin two Sheets. 2023 Projections: 42/13/47/.251 in 361 ABs

57. Dylan Moore –  This is the last tier. This tier goes from here until the end. I call this tier, “*shaking your shoulder*” “Hey, man, you don’t have a 1st baseman yet, are you…Alive?” *shakes shoulder* As for Moore, he’s a bit of a favorite of mine. He’s good? Oh heck no! He’s great! Kidding. No, he’s not great either, but I like drafting him super late for a steals play. An AL-Only Jon Berti, if you will. 2023 Projections: 43/5/31/.219/23 in 297 ABs

58. Brandon Belt – Signed with the Jays. Gonna be weird seeing Belt in another uni. Will be thinking, “That Belt doesn’t match.” Sorry, sorry, I know! Sartorial humor is something most people thread. So, Belt stunk last year, and now doesn’t have a full-time job. Not a fantastic bet for fantasy value. 2023 Projections: 38/12/39/.218/1 in 306 ABs

59. Yasmani Grandal – Already went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2023 fantasy baseball.

60. Patrick Wisdom – “The early bird catches the worm.” That’s pat wisdom. Patrick Wisdom is a power hitter who might hit .180. 2023 Projections: 38/16/33/.198/3 in 272 ABs

61. Nick Pratto – Strongly debated between ranking two Rockies’ prospects, Michael Toglia and Elehuris Montero, or Pratto, and refused to do all three, even though they’re not really related, except for maybe their profiles. Went with the Royals’ corner man over Rockies’ corner men, because Bud Black has darkened my soul. Pratto hit .184 last year with a 36% strikeout rate. As Pratto’s paisan, Vinnie Pasketti, would say, “That’s notta so good,” but the minor league numbers are very interesting, so it’s a flyer. 2023 Projections: 34/14/39/.202/3 in 271 ABs

62. Keston Hiura – At one point last year, I thought Hiura fixed his stance and himself. In related news, at one point last year, I was wrong. Just one, though! 2023 Projections: 47/12/51/.229/6 in 302 ABs

63. Carlos Santana – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed by the Pirates. The Pirates don’t rob booty; they are booty. Peeeeee-you! With the shift ending, this is actually a very astute signing by the Pirates, said a beat reporter who wanted to stay in the Pirates’ good graces. This signing stinks. Sorry, Carlos Santana hasn’t been decent since Rob Thomas, and he’s in Philly.” And that’s me quoting me! By the way, with the Phils’ manager being Rob Thomson, I now want to call the Pirates’ manager, Rob Booty. 2023 Projections: 53/15/58/.212 in 422 ABs

64. Miguel Rojas – Traded to the Dodgers. In his short, and relatively uneventful career, Rojas has made a real name for himself for being one of the top prospblocks. There’s only room for one Miguel, and it’s Los Angeles, not Los Vargas. As for Rojas, this guy should be embarrassed for his previous year’s stats. Call him Miguel Rojas-faced. My goodness, in 140 games last year, he went 34/6/36/.236/9. Is that the worst 140-game line of all-time? Holy crap! I just fell off my seat looking at his career numbers. Sorry, this post is 7,000 words long and I will end it, but he has 39 homers and 46 steals. Roughly one season from a healthy Acuña. Only Rojas accumulated those stats in 3082 plate appearances! Rojas’s career = Acuña in one season. 2023 Projections: 43/7/46/.251/7 in 487 ABs

65. Sam Huff – Already went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Considered but omitted: Alfonso Rivas, David Villar, LaMonte Wade Jr., Yuli Gurriel (FREE AGENT), Kyle Manzardo, Dominic Smith, Mike Moustakas, Owen Miller, Franchy Cordero (FREE AGENT), Michael Chavis, Christian Arroyo, David Bote, Jonah Bride, Yu Chang, Matt Reynolds, Josh VanMeter, Johan Camargo, Diego Castillo, Ernie Clement, Matt Duffy, Sheldon Neuse, Emmanuel Rivera, Pavin Smith, Bobby Dalbec, Michael Toglia, Elehuris Montero, Miguel Sano (FREE AGENT), Connor Eyed Joe, Jesus Aguilar (FREE AGENT), Harold Castro (FREE AGENT), Cavan Biggio, Lewin Diaz

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Dewey24
Dewey24
5 days ago

Schwarber qualifies at 1B in Yahoo. Put him in at 6 on this list?

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
6 days ago

Nickname of the year: Gavin Two Sheets. LMAO

frankgrimes
frankgrimes
6 days ago

15 min left!

frankgrimes
frankgrimes
Reply to  Grey
6 days ago

Nice! I’m laughing at the blurbs big time today.

mcgaffer12
mcgaffer12
7 days ago

Keeper trade question: hey Grey. We keep 4. Shallow line up, 3 ofs, no corners.

I’m keeping
JuRod @ 11
Tucker @ 17
Riley @ 13

Would you move Goldy @ 28 and Kyle wright @ 6 (won’t keep him) to gamble in a $25 Tatis?

Thanks in advance

phillip
phillip
7 days ago

Great stuff as usual, Grey. And thanks for bringing up Richie Sexson. Haven’t thought about him in awhile. He gave us a couple of good seasons in Seattle, but man, he fizzled and we cursed his name.

Couple of random questions:

-Would you trade Olson/Vaughn for Vinny/Carroll in a dynasty?
-Who do you like at CIF for the next few years: Vaughn, Miranda, Jung, Tork?
-Why is everyone so down (comparatively) on Urias? He’s been the 3rd and 6th ranked SP in my 6×6 league the past two years. Clearly he knows how to pitch despite his solid-not-dominant K numbers.

Thanks, Grey! Always appreciate your input!

Harry Beanebag
Harry Beanebag
7 days ago

Hey Grey,

Harry here. Hypothetically, if you had Vinnie and Albombso as part of your 6 keepers going into the draft would you:

A. Trade Vinnie for maybe a 3rd round pick
B. Trade Witt (who I also have as a keeper) for Goldy. Then flip Goldy to get Henderson and two high draft picks
C. Stand pat and keep both Vinnie and Albombso
D. Trade Vinnie because I also have Manoah, who I could make as my 6th keeper.

Thanks, Grey!
Harry Beanebag

Harry Beanebag
Harry Beanebag
Reply to  Grey
7 days ago

JRod, Lindor, Schwarber and Manoah

Harry Beanebag
Harry Beanebag
Reply to  Grey
7 days ago

Prost!

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
7 days ago

Imagine this draft: 12 team league, snake draft, you’re only going to have 2 picks per team and the roster is 1 catcher and 1 first baseman. And you’re going to base the draft on last year’s player rater end of season dollar value. Owner with the highest total dollar value drafted wins.

Goldy ($40.7), Freeman (37.5), Alonso (37), Vlad (27.5), Realmuto
(23.7), Walker (21.3), Olson (20.8), Cron (20.7), Drury (20.2), Lowe (20.2), Varsho (17.9), Hoskins (16.7), Abreu (16.4), Rizzo (15.9), Smith (13.9), Perez (6.2), Kirk (5.5), Murphy (5.4), Contreras (4.7), d’Arnaud (4.6), Contreras II (1.6), Rutch (1.6), Raley (1.1), Melendez (1).

Realmuto’s position at 5 overall as catcher grabs your eye. The top three on the 1b side also have some distance between themselves and the next tier.

Draft Goldy #1, you’re getting a $1 Melendez for a total of $41.7. 
If you draft Realmuto with his $23.7 you get Rizzo for $15.9 which gives you $39.6.   

Ok, but what about if you take Realmuto at #2 instead of Freeman. You’d get $38.6 for a Freeman Raley combo, a buck less than you’re getting with Realmuto/Rizzo. Here’s an instance where you’d want to draft a less valuable player earlier in order to maximize your return.

Similarly, look at Varsho. Pairing him with Abreu gets you $34.3. If you take Lowe ($20.2) at 10 you get Smith as your catcher for $13.9 for a total of $34.1, almost identical to the Varsho pairing. How about Varsho at 6 instead of Walker? Walker ($21.3) would end up paired with d’Arnaud’s $4.5 for a $25.8 total. Picking Varsho at #6 you’re gaining $8.5 in the standings.

That’s scarcity in a nutshell. Figuring out the best order in which to select your players based on the choices available at that specific moment.

A draft is all about scarcity. There is a scarcity of roster spots (capped at 30). There’s a scarcity of players (limited to MLB player pool). There’s a scarcity on the number of pitchers you can select, on the number of outfielders, etc. 

Game theory math would say that there is a theoretically optimal pick at each point in the draft. In our little model here, the scarcity of the catchers and the scarcity of the number of 1st basemen you can draft (1) make Varsho the best pick at #6 and Realmuto at pick #4.

The thing is a draft behaves is essentially the same for a full 12 team, 30 man roster, but (huge but), the full draft is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay more complicated. A really powerful computer given enough time, could recalculate the optimal pick at each draft slot by running billions of scenarios until it comes up with the best choice. But without that you have to make some guesses.

I think the biggest myth, fallacy, mistake around the idea of position scarcity is trying to assign a dollar value advantage or disadvantage to playing a certain position. There’s no way you can create a mathematically correct model for adjusting for position because the amount of value added by positional is entirely based on the status of the draft at the time of the pick and would change with every pick that came off the board.

However, it’s obvious from our experiment above that there can be points in a draft where it makes sense to pick a player of lower value to maximize overall value. But we also know that the draft has so many variables and permutations of potential outcomes, that it’s almost impossible to know the optimal pick in any point in the draft, so what do we do?

What most people do is they use a very handy tool (a tool of a sort that humans use a lot in decision making). In this case we use tiers. In this case it’s pretty obvious that there is not much use in looking at any of the bottom 4 catchers, because of how little the variance is between their value.

Realmuto, Varsho and Goldy leap off the page. It’s pretty easy to see that Goldy is kind of in his own tier, then Freeman, Alsonso and Vlad., followed by Walker through Lowe and finally, Hoskins through Rizzo. This helps you by giving you a hint that all the players within a given tier will yield roughly equivalent value within the larger context of the draft. 

Another way of looking at it is the idea that a tier is just a grouping of players that you decide to view as fungible. What you end up looking at in your draft is the bottom of each tier. If a player is at the bottom of a tier with a perceived steep drop to the value of the top player in the next tier, your might be tempted to guess that this would represent an instanc1e of opportunity to gain value by taking a
player of lesser value off the board to maximize total value.

I’m not really sure whether that’s a good draft strategy or not, though. Without having the full math in front of you, I think you’re subject to all kinds of bias when you take a lower valued player. But one of the reasons the catcher comes up all the time in “scarcity” conversations is that there is a pretty radical variation in their values, especially true in two catcher leagues, that there are almost certainly places in a draft where you could add value by taking catcher.

One thing I am pretty sure of is if you had Realmuto on your team last year, you had a “scarcity” advantage given that he outperformed all but 4 first basemen. He was a good pick pretty much regardless of how early you drafted him

There’s definitely another question that arises in this discussion about whether drafting to maximize the total dollar value (based on your own projections) is the optimal draft strategy or whether there are other strategic factors that come into play. Maybe that’s another day.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
7 days ago

I agree with you totally. Like I said at the end they’re about other strategic factors all true. It’s all the non-numerical more actuarial stuff, like age and injury risk, that also come into play. But that’s also where you start to risk magical thinking and narrative stuff when you get away from just numbers.

I think draft styles are often a reflection of how we perceive scarcity. I, like you, rarely go early catcher because seasons as good as Realmuto’s are hard to foresee. I think the hidden scarcity issue with catchers is not the lack of very good catchers, it’s the abundance of really bad catchers. I think it’s hard for people to remember that the difference between a 1 dollar catcher and a -10 catcher in a two catcher league is pretty significant. Totally messing up catcher in NFBC leagues has always seemed like a disadvantage, especially with how thin the wavers are. I’ve slowly moved catchers up a bit over my time there.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
7 days ago

The league rules are an interesting point. Essentially all differing league rules do is create new and different player efficiencies and different ways of acquiring them.

Speaking of which, I love auctions. Hard to find good ones online.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
7 days ago

You get to do a couple pretty cool industry leagues with auctions. I imagine those leagues are a mixed blessing, but they seem like some fun.

fivepoundbass
fivepoundbass
Reply to  OaktownSteve
7 days ago

Auctions are even more interesting (challenging) in keeper/dynasty leagues. Depending on how much it costs to keep a player from year to year, there are values everywhere. Auction costs are usually too high for the big dogs, because there is more money available than needed in terms of player value. Then there are deals to be had at the end of the auction, and the cycle continues. Fun stuff.

Schmohawks Bob
Schmohawks Bob
Reply to  Grey
6 days ago

Sorry to jump into your conversation, but my best FBB accomplishment is winning 9 out of 12 championships in my NL only keeper, three threepeats, with the chance at a four-bagger this year. The pressure is already on.

Schmohawks Bon
Schmohawks Bon
Reply to  Grey
6 days ago

In two-catcher only keeper leagues, I always overpay for catchers. In the NL, I had Realmuto and Willson Contreras and that made up for a lot of weaknesses and injuries and helped me nab a win.

This year, I plan to overpay for Varsho in my AL only.

frankgrimes
frankgrimes
Reply to  OaktownSteve
7 days ago

Oaktown!

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  frankgrimes
7 days ago

Grimey. How’s it going, boss?

frankgrimes
frankgrimes
Reply to  OaktownSteve
7 days ago

Great. Always enjoy when you drop some wisdom around here.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  frankgrimes
6 days ago

Yea, I’m looking forward to this season a lot. My 11 year old is at the pint where he can manage the day to day. He knows the league pretty well. He’s got scouts eyes.

frankgrimes
frankgrimes
Reply to  OaktownSteve
6 days ago

I’d bet you taught him well.

Beefo
Beefo
7 days ago

Hi Grey,

Thanks for this, as always.

I have a question with respect to my 16 Team, 6×6 OBP, QS, keeper league, which is currently in year 2 of 5 (redraft after 5 years).

We can keep 8 (at no cost):

C Michael Jordan Melendez
1B – Albombso
2B – Dylan Moore
3B – Eduardo Escobar
SS – Swanson
OF – Dr. Pepper
OF – Mullins
OF – Santander
UTIL – Corbin Carroll
BN – Chris Taylor
IL – Starling Marte
IL – Trevor Story

SP – Rodon, Wheeler, Bassist, Luzardo, Severino, Springs, Cobb, Lorenzen
RP – Helsley, Felix Bautista

Was leaning Alonso, Soto, Swanson, Mullins, Rodon, Wheeler
Torn between Marte, Carroll and Story for the last 2 spots.

Which 8 would you keep?

Also, won last year – so thanks for all your input.

Thanks!

leon
leon
7 days ago

Gurriel and Donovan for Jd Davis and Bohm. 15 man. thanks

Bill Andrews
Bill Andrews
7 days ago

ok, math is not my strong suit, but your projections for Miranda and Tellez are both better than either Vaughn and France who you had ranked higher. Just wondering…

Gordeon
Gordeon
7 days ago

Vinnie had third highest shift rate in majors. Going to hit at least .450 ?

Last edited 7 days ago by Gordeon
NJW
NJW
7 days ago

ESPN just published their rankings. Love making fun of them every year.

Julio Rodriguez is 39th in their points rankings! Ronald Acuna is 48th!

NJW
NJW
Reply to  NJW
7 days ago

Oh and Michael Harris at 79 is good too.

Will
Will
Reply to  Grey
7 days ago

I didn’t believe those numbers either but I just looked them up and it’s true. FTJ is ranked #45; Trout is #47, Riley is #61 and – get this – Steven Kwan is #57. M Harris II is at #77. Michael Harris 20 spots behind Steven Kwan, anyone??? EL OH EL

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/id/35437997/fantasy-baseball-rankings-points-leagues-2023-espn-cockcroft

Will
Will
Reply to  Grey
7 days ago

Inorite? I have no idea how they rank players. Oh and BTW they have Alex Bregman at #23 overall.

bmmolter
bmmolter
7 days ago

Hey Grey, great stuff as always.

Coming off a championship, looking to add Vlad. Curious your thoughts. Requisite info upcoming

16 team dynasty 6×6 h2h uses OPS and k/bb as extra cats, plus QS instead of W, and SV/HD

C – Sal Perez
1b – Casas
2b – jorge polanco
3b – JRam
ss – Xander
OF – stanton, haniger, starling
UT – Arraez, Taylor Ward
BN – Melendez, Nellie cruz (will prob cut), pham, berti, grisham

SP – Verlander, Wheeler, Glasnow, Pablo, Morton, Sonny Gray, Bello, Clevinger, manaea, Taillon, Baz
RP – Helsley, G. Soto, Romano, Houck

Prospects (bats) – Elly, Mead, Aranda, Alex Ramirez (NYM), Harry Ford, Liover Peguero, Julien, Carson Williams, Bleis, Pages,
Prospects (pitchers) – Eury, Pepiot, Bibee, griff mcgarry, ryne nelson, matt allan

I have guys aging out so my window may be closing. Figure i either try to go big (for vlad) to maximize the next 2 years while Verlander is still elite and before Xander and stanton crap out. Or I hold onto shiny prospects and hope they pan out and let me slide into a new window.

The initial jumping off point floated by the Vlad owner was elly, eury, mead, Aranda, and alex ramirez NYM. but he said it may take even more than that.

Would you be willing to pay at least that, and likely more, to secure Vlad?

Thanks for your insight.

packers2018
packers2018
7 days ago

Grey,

11 team roto with OPS. Dynasty keep all.

Which side please?

Brengman or

Miranda and L. Garcia.

I have Brengman, Is it close or do I need a better pitcher, I asked for Javier but this was the counter? Obviously Brengman is the best player for this year but looking at the future as well. Thank you.

toolshed
toolshed
7 days ago

Seeing Mervis & Vargas so low on this list is depressing.

Kiriloff is another one. I am not convinced that his wrist will be fixed after surgery. This issue goes back to 2019. He’s had multiple surgeries on it now.

Lourdes Gurriel hit 5 HR’s last year? Wow. He goes to Chase Field which I thought would help. Chase Field was surprisingly 25 out of 30 in park factor for HR last year per statcast.

Last edited 7 days ago by toolshed
Snacks
Snacks
7 days ago

Thanks for this, great info.

kcc26
kcc26
7 days ago

6×6 league with OPS and K:bb ratio. 12 team mixed (yahoo), keep 6.

Definitely keeping:

Julio (round 13)
Tucker (4)
Verlander (11)

Candidates for the last 3 spots:

Trea (1)
Goldschmidt (2)
Arenado (3)
Gunnar (17)
Tyler O’Neill (12)
Felix Bautista (18)
Wheeler (4)

Who ya got?!

Thanks!

LennyDykstraIsJustMisUnderstood
LennyDykstraIsJustMisUnderstood
7 days ago

“..but Olson’s gonna be around 40, and Lowe won’t be until around 80. ”

that’s wild Grey….either get on of the top early or punt until mid rounds … i could probably get by with hoskins at 100 if the top 4 drop first.

Will
Will
7 days ago

You’re the 2nd fantasy ‘pert who has posted that they think the Crawford boxes will add to Jose Abreu’s home run total. What say you to this, which is Jose Abreu’s career line so far at MinuteMaid Park?

.202/.250/.340/.590 with 2 HR, 9 RBI, 1 SB and 21 Ks in 94 career at bats (24 games)

Yeah, yeah small sample size and all but a .340 slugging % and .590 OPS in Houston doesn’t get me too excited. But maybe you can convince me otherwise.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=abreujo02&year=Career&t=b

T K
T K
Reply to  Will
7 days ago

But now he won’t be facing the Houston pitchers…

Will
Will
Reply to  Grey
7 days ago

Yes, I can see the point made above about not facing Houston’s pitching staff. But still, I do look at those ballpark splits on occasion. Check out Jose Abreu’s career splits at Comerica Park, for example (he’s a .340 hitter there, go figure).

Ryan Wheeler
Ryan Wheeler
7 days ago

I have Tucker as a keeper… Who would you rather have, Tucker or Bichette. My other keeper is Yordan. Would it be smart to move Tucker for an infielder?

Stl Squat Cobblers
Stl Squat Cobblers
7 days ago

Love the rankings grizzle! The only prahlem The Cobblers have is how to attack this position for 15-team DCs. There is value up and down the ranks:

The top 5 are all werth their adp and dim sum.
Lowe, Abreu and Walker are all going later than their numbers indicate.
Mountcastle, France, Miranda and Tellez are solid 1Bs but are going in CI territory. And finally, Bohm, Theth Brown and Bell are solid values as well.

This position is the complete opposite of Closers and Catchers where there is no value to be had.

Thanks Grey!

Last edited 7 days ago by Stl Squat Cobblers
Keepers creepers
Keepers creepers
7 days ago

Hey Grey,
Pick one. All are late round options in a roto 3 OF, 1 C league:
Michael Jackson Jordan Melendez
Snake McCarthy
A Vaughn

Thanks

Zigs
Zigs
7 days ago

Love all the rankings!!

Final keeper in a 10 team 8 keeper league.

Adley or Hunter Greene?

Keeping

Yordan
Soto
Vlad
Betts
Albies

Cease
Scherzer

everywhereblair
7 days ago

Ackshually, according to the laws of physical dynamics, specifically the laws of relativityness, a blindfolded person would know whether they’re going up or down in an elevator based on their perception of thrust affecting their mass.

The only way a blindfolded person wouldn’t know if the elevator was going up or down…was if the elevator was in freefall.

Goldy in perpetual freefall, confirmed. TY.

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
7 days ago

Thanks for the Fear the Reaper earworm…
Oh, and fun fact- I have a friend who was a high school classmate and friend of Lauren Saltzman so enjoyed The Vow mention.

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Grey
7 days ago

Yeah messed up for sure. Mom totally drank the kool-ade but Lauren was all in too. Has the brand to prove it. At least she finally had that come to Jesus moment.

Papi
Papi
7 days ago

3rd keeper question: Olson or Oneil Cruz? Keepers can be held for eternity in our OPS league. First draft pick will be mid 4th round so Goldy or Olson might be available. My fear is not keeping Cruz and he turns into a stud for next decade or more.

Hernan
Hernan
7 days ago

Great as Always!!!, one ultra deep sleeper at 1B, talking Mariana Trench deep here, is A’s Ryan Noda.., taken in Rule 5 Draft from Dodgers, so, zero chance to crack that roster, Noda is your prototypical walk a lot, strikeout some, power hitting dime a dozen 1b/dh type.., in 4 years in Blue Jays and Dodgers minors he had, 7,14,14, 3 and 20 steals??, 7,20,13, 29, 25 Hrs.., with walk rates of 21.4, 20.7, 15.8, 15.6 and 16 %…., anyways your average Voit/Schwindell/Maneses, etc type of dude, then coupled with the A’s being the A’s, he might get 500 PAs with Brown at DH/RF…., being a rule 5 guy, he’ll get a chance to play…., I give Noda the Nod .. and 57/21/64/.239/8 in 435 ABs with a chance for meatballs, i mean more…cheers and Razzball 4 Life!!!

Yersh werban
Yersh werban
7 days ago

When did Mountcastle become a switch hitter?

frankgrimes
frankgrimes
Reply to  Yersh werban
7 days ago

He so terrible they figured try both sides!

Last edited 7 days ago by frankgrimes
Chhhhh
Chhhhh
7 days ago

Hey my man Grey. Love the list and love what you do. Think you’re a tad low on Vinnie P, especially in OBP leagues. I could see him end the year top-5 in 1B.

But that’s me being me.

Stay safe you mustachioed genius!

Charlie
Charlie
1 month ago

Hot damn! Thank you, Grey!! Enjoy the winter meetings and see if you can nudge Anthopoulos a bit. I need some Braves action.

There’s that Olson projection I’ve been looking for!! Me likey. Lol the Turner owner is still pestering me over Wander. I’m like be cool, be cool (while I wait for ss rankings to drop so I can see where Wander sits lol).

Charlie
Charlie
Reply to  Grey
1 month ago

I saw that! After Olson, outside of maybe Abreu, it’s a whole bunch of meh. This validates keeping Olson over Trout for sure now. Only thing left for me to debate is if I should trade Wander for Trea Turner for my final keeper.

Charlie
Charlie
Reply to  Grey
1 month ago

Ignoring round value associated with keeping them, I like Trea more than Wander. But the fact that Trea holds round 2 value and Wander round 13 and then the 9 year age difference is where I’m stuck. I mean it’s hard to ignore Wander + whoever I draft I’m round 2 > Trea + whoever I draft in round 13. Right?

With Trea turning 30 this year, I was concerned about the inevitable decline of his speed so I looked at career steals to see if there is a trend, and sadly there is.

SBs by year
2016: 33
2017: 46
2018: 43
2019: 35
2020: 12; but prorated to 32.4
2021: 32
2022: 27

However, I then looked at his sprint speed per year and it hasn’t declined at all. Couple that with larger bases and he should be fine with steals for a few more years. I think.

Sprint speed:
2015: 30.7
2016: 30.2
2017: 30.4
2018: 30.1
2019: 30.4
2020: 30.1
2021: 30.7
2022: 30.3

I’m also not sure if this is me irrationally dreaming on Wander’s potential (lol you’re write up on Wander last year definitely fuels that), but at a certain point you have to say screw it, chips all in, and go with the better player now vs who could be better in 2-3 years.

But here I am. Torn.

Lol I’m sorry for perseverating. Maybe I’m overthinking it? Given all the facts here, you seem so matter of fact with preferring Turner over Wander.

Charlie
Charlie
Reply to  Grey
1 month ago

When the Fantasy Master Lothario speaks, you listen. Trea Turner it is.

Lol now he’s like “maybe. I’m not sure.” I’ll work on him and see if I can push this over the finish line.

Thank you!!