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“Everywhere,” Grey said, the same way he starts every conversation with me. He had switched to coconut pearls in place of boba in his daily tea. His brain had become clearer with the addition of the Omega-3, and no longer did he believe Bud Black to be a rational and sensible manager. But his opinions on Midsommar? He’d been tweeting them at all hours of the night.

I entered his office. It was cleaner than usual. The Bartolo Bobblehead sat happily on his desk, sparkling and clean. Grey gestured for me to sit on his therapy couch, and I took a seat.

“Everywhere, we have a new staff member I’d like you to train,” Grey started, pulling a sip of coconut pearls from his morning tea. He rolled them in his mouth for a minute, as if waiting for another arrival. I heard a whirring sound, like a wind tunnel. I wondered if Donkey Teeth had been airing out Razzball Headquarters again after JKJ microwaved fish in the lunch room.

The whirring sound increased, and after a minute of watching Grey swish the coconut pearls in his mouth, a Roomba arrived at the office. On top of it, attached in electrical tape and dried hot glue, was a picture of me.

“Everywhere, meet the Blairbot,” Grey said. “Not only is he great at cleaning, he’ll be taking over the pitching rankings starting next week.” Grey picked up a handful of marbles and tossed them on the floor. The Blairbot raced forward, trying to vacuum the marbles, succeeding on some of them but knocking others around the room. One landed in front of Grey, and he picked it up. Grey chuckled to himself. “Jon Gray. Fitting.” He put the marble in his pocket. “Blairbot, write up Jon Gray!”

The Roomba continued whirring, turning circles while chasing marbles. Soon it became apparent: Grey was calling me “Blairbot.” I stood, prepared to promote a Rockies pitcher. I heard a beeping noise, and the smell of microwaved fish hit my nose. It was going to be a long day.

Top 100 Starting Pitchers Header

 

News and Notes

John Means[Justin Verlander stepping in as Jeopardy host in 2021] “In 2021, MLB pitchers set a record for most no-hitters in a regular season with this many.” [Grey buzzes in] “What is Rod Beck’s mustache?” OK, OK. Means was a passed ball away from a perfect game, which is another ludicrous rule from 1920 or something that nobody really cares about now. Means himself was perfecto. Pedro Severino felt cute and dropped a third strike, which keeps Means out of the history books as one to achieve one of the rarest feats in the sport. Over the past week, Means tossed 16IP with 21K and a single walk. He’s also got a 10% barrel rate and an average launch angle of nearly 20 degrees, which means there’s some regression coming when those deep pop-ups turn into homes. Yet, Means looks really good on the season and likely for dynasty purposes. If you’re in one of those rare leagues where he’s available, grab him.

Wade MileyMiley’s been in the league 10 years and started 255 games, and he just got his first no-hitter! It was also just the second shutout of his career. Pretty wild when you think about it. Miley’s a known commodity and there’s not a lot that’s changed in his profile this year. His fastball/cutter combo ranks just above Kyle Hendricks in terms of velocity, and he’s using his changeup a bit more. Still, nothing to get excited about. Cleveland’s been no-hit twice this year, and they’re looking a lot like the 2020 Brewers, who nearly got no-hit three times in one week (with Alec Mills being the surprising victor in that competition). You know who throws slower than Wade Miley? Alec Mills! And now they both have no-hitters. Congrats for Wade, but you don’t really need to rush out and add him.

Jacob deGromSat this last week with lat inflammation, which I only just learned wasn’t his ire at the Los Angeles Times. Apparently, he’s got muscle issues! In his Sunday start, he made it into the sixth inning before leaving the game with the trainer at his side, complaining of soreness in the same region that had caused him to miss a start earlier. What, the Mets trainers made a mistake in rushing a player back early? Keep your eyes posted for deGrom news, and if you’re here early on Monday, let us know what the update is down in the comments!

Jack FlahertyLook who is number 6 on the Player Rater right now. Why, none other than my dark horse SP1 candidate, Jackson Dominatrix Flaherty. What weird parents he must have. ENYWHEY. He’s got 3 wins in the last 2 weeks, cranking out 20 IP with almost no walks or homers and his advanced peripherals are pretty close to his fantasy counting stats which means we’re seeing the real Jack Flat.

Dylan Cease: Everybody’s just waiting for Cease’s no-hitter because then we get to make cool taglines like we did with John Means. “Batters cease to hit Cease!” There, take that and steal it. The world is on fire about Dylan Cease, and I’m still not in on it. Over the past two starts, we’ve seen him post a 20:3 K:BB ratio, although one of those starts was against the league’s worst offense (Le Tigres). I look through Cease’s statcast profile and see very little change in a “positive” direction; his fastball was actually down a bit in velocity in his last start. Most of his pitches are moving less, which may explain his good control. The only noticeable “positive” that stands out is his fastball, which ranks in the top 4% of spin rates. The xSLG on his fastball is still .477 and the xwOBA is .334, neither of which are outstanding. Prior to his “breakout,” he had a 10% barrel rate and nearly 40% hard-hit rate. So, what changed dramatically in the past 2 weeks? Batters are swinging a bit less, perhaps waiting for a walk that’s not coming. ENYWHEY. We need at least 3 points of data to see a trend, and Cease has only provided 2 points right now. I’m not telling you to jump all in because there are still a lot of red flags, but he’s definitely doing better than most analysts expected.

Corey Kluber: Corky Luber threw a gem earlier this week with 10K over 8IP after a rough start the season where he failed to make it into the 5th inning 4 games straight. Although he’s had 2 nice “looking” games in a row, one of those games came with a 4.68 SIERA, and his most recent game saw his fastball and cutter drop nearly 1MPH in average velocity. The effect game came because he threw his changeup more than he has all year (25%), and given that earlier this year he was barely using it at all, we can see that Kluber found the one pitch that will work for him right now. It’s kinda like my Hollywood career. Hey Corey, we have something in common! With Kluber’s velocity all over the map and his pitch mix changing every game, he’s hard to recommend beyond obvious matchups, like A-Rod and J-Lo. Wait, they broke up, right? How about Kim and Kanye? No? OK, maybe Kluber’s meant to be a one-pitch wonder.

Robbie RaySo, the new Jordache model has made it three games without a walk, which is absolutely wild. But in a good way, like Nick Canon. Not like Jackass. So, Ray has a 23:0 K/BB ratio over his last three starts, and the chorus in the back says, “Allelujah he has become Corbin Burnes like the Prophet Blair foretold!” Except Ray is still just throwing his fastball, and in those three starts, he’s given up 5 home runs (2.41 HR/9). That’s not good. Some of those walks are going to come back, and unless he decides to throw something other than his fastball, we’ll see regression hitting soon. Now might be the time to sell high on Ray. It pains me to say that, but he’s not Corbin Burnes. He’s better than SP120, where he was ranked in the pre-season consensus, but he’s not top 10 SP material, which is what will happen if he continues to produce 9K/0BB games.

Corbin BurnesSpeaking of which, he’ll be coming off the pseudo-covid IL this week. The star is back in the sky, and whyyyyyyyyyy can’t it be mine [stares at zero shares of Corbin Burnes].

Dustin MaySpeaking of IL, May’s going to Dr. Freeze with a UCL tear. We’ll see him in August of 2022 most likely. Hold in dynasty, drop everywhere else.

Dinelson Lamet: Speaking of bad elbows, Lamet is what happens when a club opts for rehab instead of going for surgery right away. Lamet hasn’t made it more than 2IP yet. He most likely won’t hit “starter” level innings until June at the earliest, assuming he stays healthy. I would roster him only in best ball formats and contrarian DFS lineups. In fact, he dropped off the top 100 list this week due to low innings.

Luis CastilloHow unlucky can a guy get? Absolutely, he’s not the same pitcher he was earlier in his career…and I mean like 8 months ago. Fastball velocity is still down, but the control is largely there. In 33IP, he’s got 26K/10BB, which is more than acceptable. His FIP is 4.53 and xFIP is 4.03. His SIERA is down by 4.00 as well. All this means: his K’s are down and he’s not walking many batters, which means batters are making contact and his defense isn’t helping him much. We’ve watched players like Wade Miley and J.A. Happ make entire careers out of stat lines like Castillo’s. He’s been hiding his fastball behind his changeup more this year than ever, which is taking him away from his bread and butter strengths. If he can figure out his fastball — and his track record indicates he has the skills to do that — he’ll be a nice buy-low option. He won’t finish near the top 15 where many people had him in the pre-season, but he could be a top 30 kind of guy once Eugenio Suarez helps him out a little.

Jon GrayWe all wish we could forget 2020, right? And that’s what Gray seems to be doing, with his 2021 stats neatly mirroring his 2019 stats. In 2020, he struck out a meager 5 per 9, which was about 40% down from his career norms. Now he’s back near 9 K/9 with BB/9 above 3, and he’s limiting homers like he did early in his career. He’s not an elite option, but as long as he quietly puts up 8 K/9 with a mid-3.00 ERA like he’s done so far, he could finish in the top 40. He’s available in most leagues right now and is worth starting outside of home matchups.

Adrian Houser10K on Saturday, 31K/10BB over the course of the year. Nothing is stunning in his overall fantasy profile, but we’re seeing more of 2019 Houser come out instead of 2020 Houser. In 2019, he was remarkably close to Brandon Woodruff in terms of fantasy productivity. I’m not saying that Adrian Houser is going to be Brandon Woodruff in 2021, but he’s definitely worth a fantasy add due to his ground ball ability (62%) and his seeming preparedness to rack up strikeouts. If he reaches his 2019 level, that’s over 9 K/9 with a sub-3.00 BB/9, which gives him top 40 upside. Given that he’s available just about everywhere, that’s worth a speculative add.

FAAB God, Millionaire

We’re running out of low-owned pitcher options, so I’m switching to awareness of pitchers who are available in more than 15% of NFBC leagues.

  • Jon Gray, Adrian Houser, Cole Irvin: Talked about these guys today and last week. Irvin’s playing beyond his fantasy value, but his ability to control walks is elite and gives him upside.
  • Tony Gonsolin: Dustin May is out for the year, and Gonsolin will be coming back from the IL soon. Good ol’ capitalism: your chance comes when the worker in front of you falls.
  • Tyler Anderson: Stat line looks like Adrian Houser, but more people haven’t noticed him yet. This is what I tell myself when I write like Grey.
  • Jose Urena: Total floor option, but there’s a chance A.J. Hinch’s crew in Detroit helped him figure out his potential. There’s also a chance he’s just, ya know, going to Mike Leake his way to fantasy relevance.

Space:X Rankings

Elon Musk, save us! It’s pretty cool Elon Musk came out as autistic. Now I’ve got my role model: be born to an emerald tycoon, start a finance company, shoot rockets to the moon and build weird-smelling cars. I’ll admit I’ve got the weird-smelling car thing going on. ENYWHEY. Adjust the rankings! We’ve got some good data now that we’re 1/4 of the way through the season, and I’ve narrowed the S-Tier down dramatically while expanding the A-tier, um, dramatically. Repetition is dramatic, right? As always, I rank in tiers and don’t worry about placement within the tiers. These tiers describe the pitchers who have the stats that are most commonly seen among players who finish with specific ranks at the end of season.

  • S-Tier: Players with stats comparable to SP1-5.
  • A-Tier: Players with stats comparable to SP5-20.
  • B-Tier: Players with stats comparable to SP 20-60.
  • C-Tier: Everybody else.

Notable movers this week:

  • John Means: His numbers are pretty legit. I almost wrote “legity” and I think that would make a good law comedy.
  • Adbert Alzolay: his numbers look stunning, and not in a Dane Dunning kind of way.
  • Eric Lauer was sent to the bullpen, but who do the Brewers really have to act as their 5th starter?
  • Zac Gallen: Walking a ton of batters (nearly 4.75 BB/9) and his xFIP is 1.20 points higher than ERA and FIP. Great talent but his injury in the pre-season might have taken away a bit of command.
Name IP K-BB% SIERA CSW%
S-Tier
1 Corbin Burnes 29.1 45.40% 1.28 38.20%
Jacob deGrom 35 44.70% 1.38 35.50%
Gerrit Cole 44.2 38.40% 1.86 33.80%
Shane Bieber 48.1 31.00% 2.53 35.90%
Joe Musgrove 39 30.30% 2.47 35.20%
Tyler Glasnow 49.1 29.50% 2.74 35.40%
A-Tier
7 Max Scherzer 46.1 31.40% 2.59 32.40%
Carlos Rodon 31 29.70% 2.67 31.60%
Andrew Heaney 30.2 28.10% 2.81 32.00%
Freddy Peralta 30 27.70% 2.97 31.60%
Trevor Bauer 44.1 27.10% 2.95 30.50%
Yu Darvish 43.2 25.90% 3.07 33.60%
Brandon Woodruff 41.2 25.50% 2.98 31.40%
Walker Buehler 37.1 25.50% 3.03 30.10%
John Means 46 24.10% 3.23 31.60%
Tyler Mahle 30.2 24.00% 3.22 32.00%
Aaron Nola 43.2 23.70% 3.22 30.70%
Julio Urias 42.2 23.70% 3.21 31.90%
Huascar Ynoa 33.1 23.60% 3.13 32.90%
Sonny Gray 20.2 23.30% 3.29 34.80%
Trevor Rogers 38 23.20% 3.34 31.60%
Lance Lynn 29.2 23.10% 3.4 27.80%
Adbert Alzolay 26 23.00% 3.31 31.40%
Clayton Kershaw 44.2 21.60% 3.36 32.20%
Zach Eflin 45.1 21.40% 3.47 28.40%
Sean Manaea 41 21.30% 3.48 29.70%
Hyun-Jin Ryu 32.2 21.20% 3.33 31.20%
Danny Duffy 35.2 21.00% 3.58 28.80%
30 JT Brubaker 32.1 21.00% 3.15 29.10%
Cristian Javier 31 21.00% 3.68 28.30%
Lucas Giolito 30.2 20.90% 3.54 29.70%
Zack Wheeler 47.2 20.20% 3.48 26.30%
Dylan Bundy 39.1 20.10% 3.56 31.30%
Cole Irvin 35 20.10% 3.62 25.40%
Eduardo Rodriguez 33 20.10% 3.52 29.70%
Kevin Gausman 45.2 19.80% 3.58 31.00%
Madison Bumgarner 36.2 19.60% 3.76 28.60%
Michael Pineda 33.1 19.10% 3.72 31.70%
Jack Flaherty 41.1 19.00% 3.73 27.70%
Jose Berrios 38.2 18.80% 3.69 29.50%
Chris Bassitt 41.1 17.70% 3.73 28.30%
Nathan Eovaldi 39 17.60% 3.57 29.60%
Pablo Lopez 39.2 17.50% 3.73 27.00%
45 Sandy Alcantara 42.2 17.50% 3.77 30.00%
Charlie Morton 34.1 17.20% 3.77 31.00%
Steven Matz 37 17.10% 3.82 30.10%
Anthony DeSclafani 41.1 16.00% 3.75 26.80%
Ian Anderson 39 16.00% 3.81 28.80%
Kenta Maeda 28.2 15.90% 3.91 27.10%
Yusei Kikuchi 37.2 14.70% 3.9 31.10%
Aaron Civale 46.1 10.40% 4.44 23.70%
B-Tier
54 Michael Kopech 8 44.80% 1.18 34.40%
Shane McClanahan 8 25.80% 2.93 38.50%
Jameson Taillon 28.2 23.70% 3.3 29.90%
Alex Cobb 21.1 20.60% 3.26 29.80%
Dylan Cease 30.1 20.00% 3.7 28.20%
Alex Wood 23 19.80% 3.02 33.30%
Adam Wainwright 34.1 18.90% 3.64 31.60%
David Peterson 26 18.80% 3.53 30.10%
Domingo German 25 18.70% 3.72 29.60%
Dane Dunning 28.1 18.60% 3.47 29.50%
Kwang-hyun Kim 17.2 18.40% 3.73 29.40%
Eric Lauer 11 17.40% 3.76 26.20%
Griffin Canning 23.2 17.30% 4.01 29.90%
Rich Hill 31.1 17.20% 3.89 31.90%
Robbie Ray 28.2 17.20% 3.88 30.20%
Luis Garcia 18.2 17.10% 4.02 28.10%
Mike Foltynewicz 40 16.40% 4.11 25.70%
Marcus Stroman 34.1 15.90% 3.57 25.40%
Zac Gallen 26.2 15.70% 4.15 29.00%
Frankie Montas 36 15.30% 4.11 26.90%
Jordan Montgomery 32.2 15.20% 4.05 29.20%
Blake Snell 30.1 15.20% 4.21 29.70%
Zach Plesac 40 14.90% 3.88 27.60%
Dean Kremer 21 14.90% 4.21 28.40%
Tyler Anderson 33.1 14.80% 4.18 29.10%
Taijuan Walker 34 14.70% 4.23 29.30%
80 Brady Singer 29 14.60% 4.08 31.10%
Lance McCullers Jr. 32.2 14.50% 4.15 31.60%
Chris Paddack 23.1 14.40% 4.03 29.30%
Joey Lucchesi 8.2 14.30% 4.27 26.40%
Wade Miley 36 13.90% 3.66 25.00%
Luke Weaver 29.2 13.80% 4.32 27.40%
Adrian Houser 36.2 13.50% 3.6 22.20%
Kyle Gibson 41.1 13.40% 4.11 29.50%
Jon Gray 40.1 13.20% 4.2 29.70%
Jordan Lyles 33 13.20% 4.6 25.70%
Logan Webb 31 13.10% 3.9 28.80%
Zack Greinke 40.2 12.70% 4.39 27.20%
Jose Urquidy 41 12.20% 4.78 26.00%
Matthew Boyd 35.2 12.20% 4.69 29.80%
Garrett Richards 35.2 12.10% 4.29 26.40%
Corey Kluber 35.1 11.80% 4.47 29.60%
Luis Castillo 33.2 10.30% 4.37 26.00%
C-Tier
98 Jakob Junis 21.1 19.80% 3.6 29.10%
Johnny Cueto 20 18.90% 3.73 26.80%
Johan Oviedo 9 18.40% 3.89 31.00%
Max Fried 16 16.90% 3.88 30.60%
Vince Velasquez 19.2 15.70% 4.07 26.10%
Jose Quintana 17 15.70% 4.23 29.70%
Michael Wacha 21.2 15.10% 4.26 27.10%
Jesus Luzardo 28 14.20% 4.3 29.40%
Ryan Weathers 10.1 13.50% 4.32 25.70%
Shohei Ohtani 18.2 13.10% 5.01 29.90%
Trevor Williams 31 13.00% 4.31 27.00%
Kyle Hendricks 29.2 13.00% 4.4 26.60%
110 Martin Perez 28.2 13.00% 4.35 28.50%
Trevor Cahill 29.1 12.90% 3.98 27.00%
Taylor Widener 22.1 12.90% 4.55 28.00%
Mike Minor 31 12.80% 4.44 27.30%
Ross Stripling 16.1 12.70% 4.54 24.40%
Erick Fedde 27.1 12.60% 4.37 23.50%
Ryan Yarbrough 22.2 12.60% 4.46 26.90%
Jorge Lopez 26.1 12.20% 4.41 28.60%
Triston McKenzie 20 12.20% 5.04 26.60%
Jake Arrieta 31.1 11.90% 4.63 27.50%
Spencer Turnbull 19 11.80% 4.43 23.30%
Aaron Sanchez 28.1 11.50% 4.2 25.80%
Chris Flexen 33.1 11.30% 4.48 20.50%
Nick Pivetta 30.2 11.10% 4.75 24.90%
Joe Ross 26.2 10.90% 4.64 29.90%
Justus Sheffield 28 10.30% 4.56 25.10%
Marco Gonzales 28.1 9.90% 4.84 25.10%
Matt Harvey 35 9.80% 4.66 23.00%
Drew Smyly 25 9.80% 5 28.80%
Merrill Kelly 38.1 9.40% 4.83 24.30%
130 Austin Gomber 34 9.30% 4.91 28.10%
Bruce Zimmermann 30 8.80% 4.95 26.10%
Stephen Strasburg 10 8.70% 5.22 29.50%
Jeff Hoffman 26.2 8.60% 4.91 26.20%
German Marquez 33.1 8.50% 4.7 27.70%
Tarik Skubal 21.1 8.20% 5.52 23.40%
Mitch Keller 24.1 8.00% 5.1 25.70%
Jose Urena 40 7.60% 4.56 24.60%
J.A. Happ 28.1 7.30% 5.22 21.80%
Matt Shoemaker 28 7.10% 5.13 26.70%
Logan Allen 15.2 6.70% 5.02 24.30%
Antonio Senzatela 29.2 6.60% 4.69 23.40%
Casey Mize 32.2 6.40% 4.82 25.70%
Brad Keller 28.1 6.40% 5.07 23.90%
Chase Anderson 26 5.90% 5.32 26.50%
Lewis Thorpe 9 5.60% 4.62 30.00%
Brett Anderson 17.1 5.50% 4.58 21.60%
Matt Moore 11 5.10% 5.53 21.80%
Jon Lester 10 4.90% 5.17 27.10%
Wil Crowe 15 4.80% 5.39 24.00%
Riley Smith 15 4.80% 5.21 22.20%
Carlos Martinez 41.1 4.60% 5.29 24.80%
Patrick Corbin 29.1 4.60% 5.44 26.10%
Justin Dunn 25.2 4.50% 5.76 25.60%
Kohei Arihara 28.2 3.90% 5.54 24.30%
Chi Chi Gonzalez 23.2 3.80% 5.44 23.80%
Daniel Castano 17.1 3.80% 5.47 22.10%
Michael Fulmer 12.2 3.60% 5.11 27.10%
Josh Fleming 16.1 3.10% 4.91 27.10%
Mike Fiers 9.1 2.20% 5.79 21.70%
Dallas Keuchel 38 1.90% 4.94 24.60%
Bryse Wilson 12 1.80% 5.86 30.80%
John Gant 29.1 0.70% 5.96 25.90%
Zach Davies 30 -0.70% 6.02 22.60%
Chad Kuhl 15.2 -2.60% 6.7 26.50%
Nick Neidert 12 -5.30% 7.22 19.90%

Aye, you made it this far, didn’t ya. EverywhereBlair is, well, located at home right now. He’s a historian and lover of prog-metal. He enjoys a good sipping rum. When he’s not churning data and making fan fiction about Grey and Donkey Teeth, you can find him dreaming of shirtless pictures of Lance Lynn on Twitter @Everywhereblair.