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Pablo Twincasso

February 10, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes, Featured | 54 Comments

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Due to being in the middle of the 2023 fantasy baseball rankings, I got super backlogged on player updates, so this is going to be a huge How’s Your Father. First up, and perhaps the biggest news I missed, Pablo Lopez was shipped to the Twins. Or I should say given away. What’s his downside? Well, he kinda sucked last year. That’s a big one. Here’s the thing: That was last year, not this year. Crazy, right? If you followed my lead, you were out on Pab-Lo last year. And now we’re going back in. Last year, he threw 180 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 3.56 xFIP. Was a bit unlucky on men left on base and his command was a little wonky, but he upped his SwStr% and lowered his inside and outside zone contact. His 2nd half really hurt him (4.97 ERA) but that was based on a very high BABIP and he actually had better command. He had the 15th lowest Hard Contact% for the season, and 16th lowest in the 2nd half. That is disconnected from his 2nd half ERA. In fact (Grey’s got more!), he had the 8th highest difference in his 2nd half ERA and FIP. He was one of the unluckiest pitchers last year, and, if he hadn’t been, he would’ve ended the year with something like a 3.10 ERA instead of a 3.75 ERA and would be ranked at least ten starters higher, and drafted about 30 to 50 spots higher in ADP. He’s ranked and projected in the top 60 starters for 2023 fantasy baseball. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason in 2023 fantasy baseball:

Psyche! Before heading into this extremely long post, here’s some more! A big thank you to frequent commenter, Jayrod, who made the fantasy baseball tier sheet. It can also be found on the 2023 fantasy baseball rankings. If he updates it, and makes it available to me, I will update it. Anyway II, the roundup:

Carlos Correa – HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA–breathe, Grey! God damn it, breathe! We’re losing him, sir! *does mouth to mouth on self in a mirror* Oh, my God, sorry, I thought I just read Carlos Correa was on his third team in the last three weeks. It’s true?! Oh Jesus effin’ Aguilar. C’mon, man! Then again, only 27 more teams to go for Carlos Correa and less than two months! You better hurry up! Hey, Mets, you might win some, but you just Car-loss. Every few weeks, Carlos Correa starts humming Olivia Newton-John, “Let’s get physical…Physical…I want a pending physical…” So, way back (two weeks ago?) when the Giants backed out of the Carlos Correa 25-year contract, claiming it was due to his physical, I thought, “Yeah, sure. And I’m going to diagnose you with cold feet!” Well, I’m starting to think the problem might actually be with Carlos Correa. What’s his leg made of? Pulled pork? Yo, Carlos, you soaking your ankles in an Instant Pot? No wonder he’s only cleared 150 games in a season once in his career. I think Correa’s ankle might really be janky. He’s got a jankle! Also, Correa couldn’t clear 27+ homers with the Crawford Boxes. He’s solid for real baseball, but I’m once again, for what feels like the third time this offseason, telling you I’m not a fan of his for fantasy. He’s projected and ranked in the top 20 shortstops for 2023 fantasy baseball

Michael A. Taylor – Traded to the Twins. Not sure why a team that is sick of getting walked all over would go out and get MAT. His 49/9/43/4/.254 line last year was the 84th best outfielder line last year, so the A. doesn’t stand for Awesome. It stands for Apathy (feat. Celph). He’s on the top 100 outfielders for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Trevor Story – Once upon a time, there was a great shortstop by the name Story, and everyone was like, “Tell me a story, Story,” and he said, “Sure, but first let me hit 35 homers and steal 20 bases,” and the boys and five girls were so happy to hear that story from Story. Now, the story of Story is The Neverbending Story as he had internal bracing procedure of his right elbow in January. How do you wait until January to have surgery that needs six months to recover from? That just feels like the entire Red Sox organization right now, “Oh well, what can do?” What you can do is have surgery back in September! Sigh, guess you should never mess with aging Rockies’ shortstops, call him Trover Tulowitzory. He’s projected and ranked in the top 20 shortstops for 2023 fantasy baseball. Red Sox really need to find someone who can stay on the field at shortstop. Oh, I know…

Adalberto Mondesi – Traded to the Red Sox. “Aprilberto ain’t making it to Maydesi” as I like to call him goes to Boston where he will absolutely stay healthy because. Dot dot dot. Hold on. Trying to come up with a plausible reason. Because Mondesi struggled in KC because their local cuisine BBQ means lots of pulled meats, but New England Clam Chowder is cream-based, and we know where cream comes from. He’s projected and ranked in the top 20 shortstops for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Jorge Alfaro – Signed a deal with the Red Sox. Alfaro could platoon with Reese McGuire. Will be interesting to see how that works, McGuire usually likes to go solo.

Adam Duvall – Signed with the Red Sox. As you see with every positional ranking end, I have a section for “Considered but omitted.” Like In Memoriam, but without Alicia Keys playing piano. Usually if one of the guys in that section gets traded or signs somewhere decent, I’ll move them up, but only a few spots. They’re not good, in general. Which brings me to Duvall, who signed in the best place possible if we’re really to believe he’s the Red Sox center fielder for the entire 2023 season. That can’t be seriously serious, can it? He’s on the top 100 outfielders for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Liam Hendriks – Diagnosed with Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. This is going to come as a shock to some of you, especially the ones I’ve diagnosed with premature balding, but I am not a doctor. I’m sorry if you thought I was. This lab jacket was on sale. So, I don’t know how long Hendriks will be out. My guess is he’s going to beat the f*ck out of cancer like he does a PG-13 rating while being mic’d on the mound, and be back by September, then only used sparingly, depending on the White Sox needs. Rudy, I believe, gave him just over 12 IP and three saves in his pitcher projections. I wanna celebrate Hendriks in September and believe that. I’m going to slide Kendall Graveman into the closer until we hear different. Graveman’s projected and ranked in the top 500 for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Mike Clevinger – Under investigations for domestic violence and child abuse. Between Trevor Bauer, Mickey Callaway and Clevinger, what was going on in Cleveland? Next thing you know they’ll be a press release that Shane Bieber and Corey Kluber killed a drifter in Toledo. I wasn’t drafting Clevinger anyway, because he sucks, but now it’s clear he also sucks as a person and is about to get suspended. As mentioned in the top 100 starters, I’m expecting a suspension for Clevingerso he’s currently unranked.

Daulton Varsho – Traded to the Jays. ‘Daulton’s on the road…Daulton needs a new house, north of the border…Daulton’s going to Canada…It’s Road House in Toronto! (Eh!) Daulton’s got a new rule, Rule Number Four: Be Polite!’ That’s the trailer for the new Road House film, Daulton Goes To Canada. For a half a glimmer, I thought I might be able to draft Varsho this year. A “half a glimmer” is three milliseconds. It’s a space term, derived from the star’s glimmer. The star is John Travolta. Any hoo! Daulton in the Jays’ lineup is better, I suppose, but he’s no longer going to be leading off, and they have more weapons, which means Varsho could find himself rested more. I enjoyed Varsho last year. Was fun rostering him. In one league, I had Varsho and Cal Raleigh, and Raleigh was free off waivers, which proves my point to not draft catchers. For what it’s Cronenworth, if I had to draft a top catcher and at their cost, I’d prolly go Varsho. Will I? Var’ no! He’s ranked and projected in the top 20 catchers for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Brandon Belt – Signed with the Jays. Gonna be weird seeing Belt in another uni. Will be thinking, “That Belt doesn’t match.” Sorry, sorry, I know! Sartorial humor is something most people thread. So, Belt stunk last year, and now doesn’t have a full-time job. Not a fantastic bet for fantasy value. He’s projected and ranked in the top 20 1st basemen for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Gabriel Moreno – Traded to the Diamondbacks. Seeing him behind Carson Kelly on some depth charts, which seems kinda funny. Hold on, I wanna do a little laughy-laugh. Okay, got that out of my system. Excitement for Moreno is at a fever pitch right now for me. The great thing about a catcher flyer is no one at catcher is good where I draft them, so taking a flyer on a guy like Moreno is nothing but profit. I’m the Prophet Profit, baby! Previously, Itch’s said, “Moreno’s not a big dude, listed at 5’11” 160 lbs (he’s bigger than that), but Moreno generates loud contact to all fields thanks to extreme control of a quick swing powered by quick-twitch, rotational athleticism. He’s good on defense, too, which is good for his baseball value but might be a little irritating at times for our purposes, given the team’s depth at that spot and the toll catching can take on a player’s body. I’d like these brass knuckles to take a toll on Grey’s body.” Not cool, man. He’s ranked and projected in the top 20 catchers for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Traded to the Diamondbacks. This should guarantee him everyday playing time. That’s good, right?! Right? Hmm…His line last year was 5/3, and doublechecked that to see if I was missing a zero or something. Or if I was looking at one week of his season. Aaron Judge had a better series in September than that line. Lou-Gu-Ju sounds like a Pokemon character and he’s starting to hit like one too. He’s projected and ranked in the top 20 1st basemen for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Diego Castillo – Picked up off waivers by the DumbBacks. The DBs are dumb, it’s in their name, but I kinda like this pickup. Was a terrible drop by the Pirates, but might pay dividends in Arizona. TBD for the DBs.

Evan Longoria – Signed by the Diamondbacks. The Dumbbacks be making moves. Setting themselves up to make sure any interesting prospects aren’t ever seen. Dumbbacks might be the team that’s done the most moves to make themselves worse, which isn’t an easy task when you have teams like the Pirates who are actively trying to lose. Longo on the Dumbbacks feels like Manny Ramirez on the Rays or Kenny Lofton on the Yanks. Will just be completely forgotten by next year. He’s projected and ranked in the top 20 3rd basemen for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Michael Conforto – Signed with the Giants. To refresh my memory about where Conforto’s been, I googled “Conforto injury history” and Google said, “How much time you got?” Which I think is kinda rude. So, I said as much to Google and then we got into a fight and now I can’t google nearby boba places and I’m so sad. Thanks a lot! The thought of the team, who claimed Correa wasn’t healthy enough, signing Conforto is just a little chef’s kiss. Just a little peck on the cheek. Gotta admit, Giants, your commitment to the bit isn’t very good. So, Conforto had shoulder surgery and missed all of 2022, that sounds great! In opposite world. Are we in opposite world? No? Hmm, bummer. He’s on the top 80 outfielders for 2023 fantasy baseball.


Taylor Rogers – Headed to the Giants to be reunited with his twin brother. Imagining the Giants’ clubhouse as a womb, hooking the umbilical up to the Gatorade, dimming the lights. “In utero.” That’s one of the Rogers’ twins answering the bullpen phone. Projected and ranked in the top 500 for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Trevor Bauer – Was reinstated and is eligible to play on Opening Day. So hard to speculate on what a guy is going to look like coming back after missing the last season and a half. Bauer seems exactly like the kind of ess oh bee who thrives when everyone wants him to fail, so he’s got that going in his favor. Going against him, besides the long time between outings, is how he was the poster child for “succeeding due to Spider Tack,” and that’s been long outlawed. Then again, he might use that to motivate himself too, thinking it’s Outlaw vs. Outlawed. Really trying to come down on one side or another on what we could expect, but I honestly think it could be anywhere from 200+ IP of Cy Young-type numbers to 120 IP of 4+ ERA with lots of people dropping the GIF of Seinfeld saying, “What a shame.” As of this writing, I don’t even know where he’s going to be pitching. Maybe Korea? I don’t know. So, as mentioned in the top 100 starters, he’s currently unranked.

Ryan O’Hearn – Traded to the Orioles for cash. Specifically, twenty-seven dollars. Didn’t even cover train fare. The Orioles’ bench is O’Hearn, McKenna and McCann. Carnac The Magnificent puts envelope to forehead, “O’Hearn, McKenna and McCann.” Carnac The Magnificent opens envelope, “What are three pubs in Dublin.”

Wade Miley – Signed with the Brewers, because they hate me and how much I loved Aaron Ashby. I don’t take everything personal. Just this.

Nathan Eovaldi – Signed with the Rangers. Texas has put together an interesting staff. One absolute, bona fide ace that might be the best pitcher in the world — good for playoffs, if they (and him) get there — and four more number fours. Call them the Four Fours, and teach them all how to just eek their way by, as any good number four can. Kinda like this landing spot for Eovaldi too. If he can do his special brand of 8.7 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 with that park suppressing homers, if they’re using the dead ball, Eovaldi could have his best ratio year. His problem is so clear: He’s way too much in the zone, and his hard contact would’ve led the league last year, if he would’ve qualified. There’s a path here for a solid 180 IP, but he could also be cut in shallower leagues after two bad starts. He’s ranked and projected in the top 80 starters for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Corey Kluber – Signed with the Red Sox. Interesting that Theo both once led the Cubs and Red Sox to the Promised Land, and now both teams seem utterly rudderless, dinghy’ing about against the jetty, just hoping to do enough to shut their fans up. Is Kluber better than Brayan Bello in the rotation? Is that the guy that gets shoved out for Kluber to shove? I don’t know, maybe the Red Sox figure if they can get 200 IP from Kluber and Paxton combined, they’ll be happy. Maybe this is just a signing to get them to July, when they offload Kluber to a contender. Not sure, tee bee aitch. Unlike some of the previous Old Heads I’m liking this year, Kluber is not one of them. He lost two miles on his fastball and two Ks on his K/9. He’s ranked and projected in the top 100 starters for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Jean Segura – Signed by the Marlins. Finally, we get to see Jazz and Jean’s play on one field, after imagining it while yacht rock plays in the background of our Toyota Sienna. Is that Chuck Mangione? No, it’s Jazz and Jean’s! If Jazz and Jean’s double plays are not nicknamed Chuck Mangione, then I don’t know how to help you, universe. Any hoo! Segura likely hits leadoff and is a better real-life move than a fantasy one. Segura’s fine for counting stats, while being pretty boring. He’s ranked and projected in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Johnny Cueto – Signed by the Marlins. Now the Marlins have Jean and Johnny? Well, Thelma & Louise me into the Grand Canyon if that ain’t too cute! Wait a second, Cueto…O, Cute! These guys! So, if I were the Marlins, I’d prolly trade away a guy before signing on a 6th starter and making it obvious they have a starter to trade, but to each their own, I suppose. Clearly, Trevor Rogers, Pablo Lopez or someone is being traded. Any hoo! This is one of the best possible landing spots for Cueto for fantasy, but he’s still a barely 6 K/9 pitcher now, so I wouldn’t get carried away. He’s ranked and projected in the top 100 starters for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Luis Arraez – Traded to the Marlins. You could put Arraez on any team and he’s be Arraez. You can move him to the moon and he’d be–well, the moon might play more hitter friendly. I need to see the moon’s park factors. How does Tesla Stadium on the Moon play? With no gravity, it’s gotta be good for power. Okay, anyway, off topic, Arraez is a .310 hitter anywhere and has zippo power and speed. Enjoy! Arraez was updated in the 1st basemen rankings, and this trade had me move Alex Kirilloff up in the top 20 1st basemen.

Rich Hill – Signed with the Pirates. What better way to prospblock than with Dick Mountain? Honestly, he’s a totally respectable signing for a team like the Padres, who need some IP because they have half a staff of middle relievers, but the Pirates should just be ashamed of themselves. A soon-to-be-43-year-old on a team that should be starting prospects to see what they have is an abomination. Also, on a side note, good on Rich Hill:

Andrew McCutchen – Signed with the Pirates for what I’m guessing is his swan song, which is a tradition that never gets old, so to speak. Like Pujols on the Cards last year, and Greinke on the Royals. The last trot around the park in the old uni is always fun. About the only thing the Pirates have done well in the last decade or three. Welcome back, Dread Pirate. Is he good for fantasy? Oh, no. Not at all. He’s on the top 100 outfielders for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Aroldis Chapman – Signed with the Royals. Coincidentally, the Chapman move makes me chapped, man. I’m Aroldis Chappedhide. Really like Scott Barlow, but can’t be certain now the Royals won’t try to get Chapman saves just to move him in July. Both are projected and ranked in the top 500 for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Nelson Cruz – Signed with the Padres. When I heard this, I immediately went to see if he was older than Fernando Tatis Sr. He is not. Close though! Nelson Cruz is old, but I’m old enough to remember when he was Nelson Cruz Jr., so what does that make me? Dirt old? This signing could ruin my Jose Azocar crazy-crazy-crazy-late sleeper outfielder pick, if I let it, but I’m ostrich’ing my head in the sand, and gonna pretend Azocar will get enough at-bats to SAGNOF. He’s projected and ranked in the top 500 for 2023 fantasy baseball.

A.J. Pollock – Signed with the Mariners. Only better fit than a Pollock in Seattle is maybe a flying salmon. Too bad Tim retired. This move will appear to be a hinderance to Kelenic’s playing time, but Kelenic wasn’t facing lefties. Kelenic’s actually lucky he’s still facing righties. He’s on the top 100 outfielders for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Tommy La Stella – Signed with the Mariners. Shame, not saying he was a perfect fit for the Dodgers, but all he had to do is capitalize the A in La.

Bligh Madris – Claimed by the Astros. Tigers and Pirates both gave up on him and the Astros grabbed him? Oh, he’s definitely headed to the All-Star Game.

Shintaro Fujinami – Signed with the A’s. The 28-year-old righty is supposed to be in the A’s rotation, but he hasn’t started games since 2017, when he had a 4.12 ERA. Not really sure what to make of that alone, that moving from the pen to the rotation as he transfers to the new league. That alone has me pretty lukewarm. Then, if you’re comparing apples of a reliever’s stats and oranges of a starter’s: At the age of 28, Miles Mikolas in Japan went 2.25/0.98 and a 9 K/9, 1.1 BB/9 with 7 IP/G. Fujinami went 2.77/1.12 and a 9.6 K/9, 3 BB/9 with 4.3 IP/G. That says to me he’s barely a flyer in the top 140-ish starters, i.e., he’s ranked and projected in the top 100 starters for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Jesus Aguilar – Signed with the A’s to a one-year deal, but any one-year deal with the A’s should be considered a “Three-month deal until they offload him to a contender for a washed-up prospect roll of the die, where said player will become a backup bench option as the team prepares for the playoffs.” So, good luck to Jesus Aguilar in August getting at-bats as insurance for Matt Olson in Atlanta. He’s projected and ranked in the top 20 1st basemen for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Eli White – Claimed by the Braves. Eli White sounds like a dentist and runs like drool after the dentist says, “You’ll feel just a little numbing sensation.” Could be a SAGNOF pickup in-season, but I don’t see how he gets any significant at-bats.

Craig Kimbrel – Signed by the Phils. Subtraction by addition. The Phils can’t get out of their own way, huh? They can’t leave well-enough alone? Man, I hate this signing, because you know the devil’s gonna whisper in Rob Thomson’s ear and be like, “Try him in the 9th.” He’s projected and ranked in the top 500 for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Gregory Soto – Traded to the Phils with Kody Clemens, who should say, “Roger that!” after being asked why he has a career. Gregory Soto joins the Phils’ bullpen that is attempting to answer is quantity as good as quality. In my top 500 for 2023 fantasy baseball, I have all relievers projected, and right now I’m hedging with Soto and Seranthony Hopkns Dominguez for who’s the Phils’ closer. They’re right by each other, and the guy I have first is my guess for saves.

Matt Vierling – Went the other way in the Soto to Phils trade. Fun fact! Vierling is a baby Vier. He’s interesting in deep leagues, if he gets the at-bats, but not interesting yet, since he doesn’t have the at-bats. See how that works?

Nick Maton – Also went to the Tigers. Not to be confused with Phil Maton, which is a command but I’m not sure for what. Phil with rubber? With air? I need more. Nick Maton went 10/3 in 92 games between Triple-A and the majors last year; is 26 years old, and had a 34+% strikeout rate last year with the Phils. Oh, great, puzzling me on what I’m Phil’ing with again. Concrete? What’s a Maton? Let’s start there.

Steven Duggar – Signed by the Dodgers. Hey, real question: When did the Dodgers become a small market team?

Miguel Rojas – Traded to the Dodgers. In his short, and relatively uneventful career, Rojas has made a real name of himself for being one of the top prospblocks. There’s only room for one Miguel, and it’s Los Angeles, not Los Vargas. He’s projected and ranked in the top 20 1st basemen for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Brett Phillips – Signed with the Angels. Oh, heck yeah, Angels building a two-way players-only team. Christian Bethancourt, have your agent get in touch with Perry Minasian.

Tucker Barnhart – Signed with the Cubs. That gives the Cubs a platoon of Yan Gomes/Barnhart, which is the same number of letters as Willson Contreras, so they got going for them!

Trey Mancini – Signed with the Cubs. Are the Cubs putting together a team to simply trade at the end of July? Because it’s beginning to feel that way. Actually don’t mind Mancini, in general, but a team going nowhere with one of the best corner infield prospects doesn’t go out and sign Mancini (and Hosmer) without thinking they’re having a yard sale in July. Mancini’s actually a two-year deal, so color me perplexed. He’s projected and ranked in the top 20 1st basemen for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Eric Hosmer – Signed with the Cubs. Uhh, okay, but why? Hey, real question: What stage is denial? Because I’m currently trying to convince myself that Eric Hosmer goes to DH, shifts Wisdom to the bench, Morel to utility, Mancini to left, Happ to 3rd, and Matt Mervis is still an everyday 1st baseman. That’s what’s happening, right? RIGHT?! The other stage, bargaining, is what I’m counting on too, as in, let Jed Hoyer bargain with a team in June and trade Hosmer for anything! He’s projected and ranked in the top 20 1st basemen for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Jeter Downs – Claimed by the Nats. Well, if there’s any team where Downs can actually find playing time, it would be the Nats. Though, you kinda need to hit higher than .200 in Triple-A before you can make a legit claim to the “interesting” adjective.

Dominic Smith – Signed with the Nats. That gives the Nats a 1B platoon of Michael Chavis, Dom Smith and Matt Adams. Sounds like the Nats have been reading my 2014 rankings.

Corey Dickerson – Signed with the Nats. Thought he retired. Guess he really got his wheels back. Ya know, re-tired! High five me! C’mon! No? Oh well.

Wil Myers – Signed by the Reds. You know that Kombucha Girl meme? A girl looks like something is good, then bad, then rethinks and it is good, then, after all, it’s not good. That’s this signing for me. Cincy makes every hitter better. Though, Myers is so bleh. Though, Part II, They Keep Making More Of Thoughs: Cincy even made Drury good! Though, Part III, Though’s Revenge: Wil Myers will absolutely be traded by the end of July and become a part-time player. He’s projected and ranked in the top 20 1st basemen for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Curt Casali – Signed with the Reds. Psycho Killer’s back home! And not fa, fa, fa, fa, fa, fa from home.

Tommy Pham – Signed with the Mets. This seems like a disaster waiting to happen. We know what the Mets doctors are like and we know what Tommy Pham will do if someone tries to carry extra injured players on their bench. Mets just got stronger in their DH platoon, and much weaker in their ability to coax other teams into a fantasy football league. Any hoo! Pham doesn’t make a lot of sense to me from their team makeup, unless they’re out of blush and want someone to redden their face with a slap. Okay, seriously, I’m done now, and Pham’s fantasy value seems similarly finished. He’s on the top 100 outfielders for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Danny Mendick – Signed on with the Mets. When Steve Cohen heard a reporter’s assertion that Cohen is the modern Steinbrenner, Cohen signed Mendick and contractually required him to shave his foreskin.

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