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Looking at the overall 2023 fantasy baseball rankings, the top 80 starters for 2023 fantasy baseball is from around 200 overall to 275 overall, which is just about the end for 12-team mixed leagues. This is your late fourth, mostly fifth thru the beginning of the sixth starters. This is just about it for 12 team leagues, though the last tier in this post is still in 12-team league territory, so you’ll have to wait until the next post to finish off that tier. Don’t worry, on that next post, I’ll be by with another 70-ish pitchers for those in deeper leagues, and/or dynasty and keeper leagues. Or for those that just like to read about fantasy baseball while the world burns around them. I fall into that latter camp. Our subscriptions are up and running, and that comes with our online Fantasy Baseball War Room — now for auction drafts, AL-Only, NL-Only, Best Ball and more. Here’s Steamer’s 2023 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2023 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. All projections included here are mine, and where I see tiers starting and stopping are included. Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2023 fantasy baseball:
NOTE I: All my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.
NOTE II: Free agents are listed as just that and not yet projected. Once a guy signs, I will write out their blurb and add in projections, or remove them, if they sign in an unfavorable place. They are ranked currently where I think they might be if they sign on for a full-time job.
GO BACK TO THE TOP 60 STARTERS FOR 2023 FANTASY BASEBALL
61. Andrew Heaney – This tier started in the top 60 starters for 2023 fantasy baseball. This tier goes to Carrasco. I called this tier, “Broken emergency anchor glass.” As for Heaney, here’s what I said this offseason when he signed with the Rangers, “Rangers are putting together the ultimate crazy ex-girlfriend pitching staff. Won’t be around for long, but it’s going to wreck havoc while it’s there. “Damn, she fine with that 13 K/9…” Looking out the window, “…and now she’s keying my car.” Also, much like a crazy ex, Heaney’s numbers last year are the type that make projections systems trip over their own d**k. They see Heaney and they’re like, “He wasn’t top three in the Cy race? Well, he will be!” Seriously, his projections look better than Alek Manoah. Ya know, an actual ace. Heaney has a career 4.56 ERA, and only one year with more than 130 IP thrown. If you believe the Dodgers fixed him and don’t just cheat to make their terrible pitchers great, then Heaney could be worth a flyer.” And that’s me quoting me! 2023 Projections: 8-5/3.88/1.26/144 in 124 IP
62. Ross Stripling – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Giants. He had a 3.01 ERA last year with a 3.67 xFIP (decent, if you weren’t sure), and a 7.4 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 in 134 1/3 IP. Clearly, can’t trust him for a full season, but any guesses on his ADP? Bzzt! Wrongo! He’s going at 453rd overall by Sean Manaea, who absolutely sucked last year. Oh, and to put the whispers to bed that that was Stripling’s one good year, he has a career 3.78 ERA. Get to bed, whispers! What I’m saying is currently Stripling is plenty undervalued.” And that’s me copying and pasting me! 2023 Projections: 8-9/3.77/1.07/131 in 148 IP
63. Zach Eflin – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Got a $40 million bag from the Rays, which is their largest free agent deal in franchise history and I’d laugh if that wasn’t so pathetic. Welcome to 1995 salaries, Rays, you giant freakin’ bums. Any hoo! Eflin was used in relief with the Phils, but Kevin Cash will surely use him as a reliever, opener, bulk starter, non-bulk starter, which is just a starter, and a right fielder. Without too much galaxy braining, I can convince myself Eflin is a fantasy baseball sleeper. He had a 8.4 K/9, 1.4 BB/9 in 2021 as a strictly starter, and 7.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 last year. That plays as a strong ratio play in the fantasy four to five role. If he can keep the ball in the park, which Tampa should help with, he could be a low-3 ERA, one-point-barely WHIP and ugly strikeouts with just a little favorable luck.” And that’s me–well, you know. Also, Coolwhip gave you a Zach Eflin sleeper. 2023 Projections: 8-7/3.71/1.14/118 in 138 IP
64. Noah Syndergaard – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Dodgers. In Los Angeles, we like our breasts fake and our pitchers to throw a sub-3 ERA–*door flies off its hinges* Cancel Police?! No! Breasts fake as in Fakin’ Chikin! The soy-based poultry! Please! So, Dodgers are the one team that can turn Noah Syndergaard into a 1.75 ERA pitcher with a 7.5 K/9. I’m only partly joking. By the way, it’s kinda cool Mark Prior has become the greatest pitching coach ever after being the greatest pitching prospect who was ruined by Dusty Baker. Syndergaard’s stats last year were so wildly awful it’s hard to imagine him being decent this year, but, honestly, for the right price, I’m willing to take a chance we get this year’s Gonsolin.” And that’s me–Well, a lot of number fives signed this offseason. 2023 Projections: 10-4/3.82/1.22/128 in 142 IP
65. Jose Urquidy – *pinches cheeks* No, you’re a cutie! *realizes person was saying Urquidy* Oh, sorry, about pinching your buttocks. There isn’t a ton of difference between Urquidy and, say, the Merrill/Miles duo, The 14% K-BB Crew. In fact, his K-BB% is 14.1%. Urquidy wanted to be solo though, and not be a part of that Crew. Kind of a shame, we’re stronger together, Jose. 2023 Projections: 12-7/3.81/1.12/139 in 171 IP
66. Alex Cobb – Might be shortchanging Cobb with this ranking. Here’s my fifty cents: He’s a 9 K/9, 3 BB/9 guy. Those stats usually rank a bit higher than this, but he hasn’t thrown more than 153 IP since 2017, and can he hold his velocity gains from last year. Oh, he made velocity gains, did I mention that? Also, he’s a 3.73 ERA pitcher last year and 3.76 the year before. So, this year he’s a 3.7455555555555 pitcher, or The Matrix is broken and I need to attach cords to my head and go see Laurence Fishburne. 2023 Projections: 11-10/3.56/1.28/157 in 155 IP
67. Eric Lauer – As many of you should know, because I’ve only said it about 15,000 times: All we can really know about pitchers is their Ks and walks. Everything else is noise. Their ERAs are prolly the noisiest. Sure, there’s other stuff on why their Ks or walks should be higher or lower, but that’s about all you can trust in any of this. Then you have what I’ve also said at least as many times, K-BB is what you should be looking at. K/9 – BB/9 is dirty, but gets you close enough. So, that brings us to the tiers. Top 20 starters are a difference from 12 K/9 – 3 BB/9, 9 K/9 – 1-ish K/9, 10 K/9 – 2 BB/9. That sorta thing. The biggest spreads between Ks and walks are the top starters. That brings us to this tier. This is mostly a difference of 5. So, 6 K/9 – 1-ish BB/9, 7 K/9 – 2 BB/9, that sorta thing, which brings us to Lauer who is 9 K/9 – 3.4 BB/9. That’s riskier than guys with better command and lower walks, and almost made me move Lauer either up (to more riskier, but more upside guys) or down (to more down side, much more riskier). There’s also the track record (he has none), but the Brewers do have a great track record of coaching up solid pitchers. Lauer has a terrible home run allowed rate (makes more risky), and gives up a lot of fly balls. Finally, I could see more Ks and less walks from him. Hard guy to rank, and I don’t love this rank, tee be aitch. These guys are supposed to be safe, and Lauer feels like he could give “safe” numbers without being safe, if that makes any sense. 2023 Projections: 11-10/3.85/1.24/177 in 174 IP
68. David Peterson – Full disclosure alert! I wrote a David Peterson sleeper post back in October (when I write them), but never posted it, because the Mets went out and spent $1.8 billion on their rotation, so I just don’t know if Peterson’s going to get enough innings. Because the Mets spent that money on Cougars, I’m willing to take a flyer on Peterson in a deep league, because Scherzer, Verlander, Carrasco and Quintana have enough miles on their arms to go to the moon and back. So, Peterson’s Theme (Best He Can Do) is stuck between the moon and New York City. UPDATE: Made the rotation. 2023 Projections: 7-6/3.71/1.31/131 in 111 IP
69. Martin Perez – Just laughing that this year I could, for the first time ever, have a pitching staff that includes Glasnow, Kershaw, and Martin Perez. That is so frightening. Why does that scare me? That would’ve been like a 2.50 ERA last year and throwing Glasnow’s nastiness in there, and I am so shook. Scared, really. Not sure why. I just need to draft them and stop being a scared, little, whiny baby. Perez’s HR/9 was 0.5 last year, and I’m letting out a little, “Woo boy,” but he upped his Ks, and his command has always been fine and his xFIP was 3.80. Yes, I’m still scared! I can’t help it! But with his six (!) pitches, he’s like a cheap Nestor Cortes. Call him Empty Nestor. 2023 Projections: 13-7/3.84/1.29/167 in 190 IP
70. Cal Quantrill – “Hey, any ideas why The Old Spaghetti Factory lights seem to be on after hours? Let’s go knock on the door to see if anyone answers. Whoa, I knocked on the door and all the lights shut off super fast. What’s going on here? I wish all the windows weren’t such a thick frosted glass. It’s clearly a very Italian-American tradition, but I wish I could peer inside.” That’s a person that doesn’t know after hours The Old Spaghetti Factory turns into the Cleveland Starting Pitcher Factory that meh starters into sub-3.50 ERA pitchers. 2023 Projections: 10-10/3.48/1.19/144 in 184 IP
71. Marcus Stroman – So, there’s some real snoozers in this tier. Listen, if you want to skip this tier, then skip it! Just don’t go bellyaching/beeyatching to me in-season when you need innings and ratio help. This tier is actually solid to pick through in deep leagues. If you can get a discount on a 7.7-ish K/9, 2.3-ish BB/9 guy, it’s not a bad discount to take, and, no, it’s not just like buying something on sale, just because it’s on sale. These J.D. Drew rookie cards are gonna be worth a fortune one day! Like if he ever runs for President, or murders someone (those are the only two ways a card’s price increases after a guy retires. Speaking of which, anyone know if Gregg Jefferies is into politics?). 2023 Projections: 10-10/3.43/1.14/156 in 181 IP
72. Nathan Eovaldi – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Rangers. Texas has put together an interesting staff. One absolute, bona fide ace that might be the best pitcher in the world — good for playoffs, if they (and him) get there — and four more number fours. Call them the Four Fours, and teach them all how to just eek their way by, as any good number four can. Kinda like this landing spot for Eovaldi too. If he can do his special brand of 8.7 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 with that park suppressing homers, if they’re using the dead ball, Eovaldi could have his best ratio year. His problem is so clear: He’s way too much in the zone, and his hard contact would’ve led the league last year, if he would’ve qualified. There’s a path here for a solid 180 IP, but he could also be cut in shallower leagues after two bad starts.” And that’s me quoting me! 2023 Projections: 11-9/3.71/1.21/159 in 166 IP
73. Carlos Carrasco – Was a bit surprised on how high I landed on Carrasco, but this year is clearly the Year of The Old-Ass Pitcher. Or last year was, and I’m a year late on old-asses. Stupid late-ass on the old-ass. That’s me. However you slice Carrasco’s 9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 last year in 152 IP gets you here for his ranking, unless you put all your faith in his 3.97 ERA and not his 3.45 xFIP. Since his career was derailed momentarily by cancer, he feels back. I’m tempted to say he’s even underrated ranked here. Also, one word about this tier, you’ll see in the next ranking post of top 100 starters there’s a bunch of vet starters, who are safe for IP and kinda bleh numbers, and all of the starters in that tier and this tier are super close. Saying the same with different words: Carrasco or Quintana, who is in that top 100 tier? Kinda about preference, but my preference is for these guys. 2023 Projections: 13-8/3.52/1.30/153 in 149 IP
74. Edward Cabrera – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 100 starters for 2023 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “I’m using the milkrowave.” Is using the microwave fun? No. Is it fun to use the microwave and call it the milkrowave? Yes, undeniably. That’s this tier. Guys who are likely just using microwaves, but it’s late and I’m enjoying myself by pronouncing it milkrowave, making these guys fun. Last year, in this tier I ranked Tony Gonsolin, Cristian Javier, Triston McKenzie, Drew Rasmussen, Jesus Luzardo, and Hunter Greene. Sure, there were some duds, I have the Huascars to prove it, but this is so late you could’ve dropped any of these guys and grabbed one of the better ones in most leagues. This is why I keep telling you things like, “In this ‘pert league, I have a 3.20 ERA overall, and the next closest is 3.60.” I’m not saying to do it, but you could prolly only draft starters from this tier and be fine.
As for Cabrera, talked a bit about how much I loved Cabrera in my Jesus Luzardo sleeper. At some point, Cabrera’s going to click and then it’s all gonna come together and people are going to be like, “Geez, instead of drafting deGrom at 25 overall, I could’ve taken Edward Cabrera at 225.” Yeah, dudes and five lady dudes, that’s the whole point. Cabrera is a 10+ K/9, 3.2 BB/9 waiting to happen. It’s just a matter of when. My guess is it will be more like 2024, as he still needs to build up innings, but, real question: Have the Marlins ever developed a bad pitching prospect? Okay, leave Max Meyer out of this. He’s injured. 2023 Projections: 8-9/3.34/1.18/147 in 132 IP
75. Tyler Glasnow – A healthy Glasnow is a top 20 starter, even if he can only throw 120 IP. Talk about a dazzling 120 IP. I’m getting heart palpitations from just looking at his stats. Imagine Edwin Diaz for 120 innings. I feel like I’m going to faint. I might need to sit down. Wait a second! I am sitting! I might need to sit on two chairs at once. One seat is not enough for Glasnow. Before injury, he left throwing 97.3 MPH, and, small sample, but returned last year, throwing 97.6. He left throwing a 2.8 BB/9, and returned throwing a 2.7 BB/9. He left throwing a 12.6 K/9 and returned throwing a 13.5 K/9. It was only in 6 2/3 IP (go ahead, you can cackle), but I think we know what we can get from Glasnow. The sexiest thing you’ve ever seen. And I’m not just talking about those looking at him thinking he was the star of Peaky Blinders. You want a peaky at his peak, and I’d say we haven’t even seen it yet. 88 IP, 123 Ks and 2.66 ERA with neutral luck in 21 after 20 is prolly closest we’ve come. Steamer projects him for 3.19 ERA and a 11.5 K/9. Behind deGrom and Strider, that’s the best K/9 you’re gonna find amongst starters that they’re projecting. Steamer is incredibly conservative on starters, so that gives you an idea what kind of Ks we could see from Glasnow. They’re saying a 11.5 K/9, and I say a 13.5 K/9 isn’t out of the realm of possibilities. It might actually be his flore–Floor, sorry, I was typing that last sentence with my drool. UPDATE: Has a Grade 2 oblique strain and will miss two months. 2023 Projections: 6-4/2.71/0.96/114 in 82 IP
76. Triston McKenzie – Kinda want all my starters to be 9 K/9, barely 2 BB/9, 3-ish ERA guys and *leans into mic* It’s possible. Triston McKenzie might look like a rake, but hitters can’t rake on his curve. One of the most devastating pitches in the majors. Threw it 22% of the time, and it had a .120 BAA. I’d continue writing this but my eyes have fallen out of my head. I’m sorry, what? A .120 BAA? Hitters are hitting .120 against his curve? Is that real? Trying to locate video of someone getting a hit off his curve and Google’s saying, “Sorry, did you mean French military losses?” What the heck, Google?! The closest guy I can find with that devatasting of a curve is McClanahanananananananan and his batting average against on the curve is “only” .139. If this Strong Bean’s only pitch was a curve, he’d prolly be a 40-save closer. But, oh, ya know, he also has a .203 BAA on his 93 MPH fastball. How come his fastball isn’t that fast but works so well? Because of that freakin’ curve! Hitters sit curve and then sit on the bench after getting had by the one they call McStickzie. UPDATE: Will miss two months. 2023 Projections: 7-4/3.28/1.02/113 in 111 IP
77. Justin Steele – Already gave you my Justin Steele sleeper. It was written while parasailing. 2023 Projections: 9-11/3.46/1.29/154 in 148 IP
78. Hunter Brown – Already gave you my Hunter Brown fantasy. It had it up to here with you. 2023 Projections: 8-2/3.41/1.12/129 in 118 IP
79. Roansy Contreras – Something hasn’t yet translated for Roansy from the minors to the majors. Yet is the key word there. Yet is living in that sentence’s head rent-free. Eat a D, sentence, I’m yet! When will Roansy translate to “better” in the majors. Your guess = My guess. Could be this year, could be his first year on the Yankees after he’s traded for a middle reliever. 2023 Projections: 7-10/3.61/1.24/139 in 131 IP
80. Trevor Rogers – Was out on Rogers last year, and was proven right once again–Ouch, damn it, I just pulled something patting my own back. Stupid hubris. I discard you. “‘Hubris is debris’ is the shirt I want,” I tell the shirt printer, and they return in 14 days with a shirt that reads, “Hebrew is The Brie.” Stupid shirt printer! I’m still tentative on Rogers — not like this ranking is crazy high — but his velocity held, and his biggest problem was locating. Someone get this guy a Waze app! Geez. 2023 Projections: 8-10/3.72/1.31/138 in 135 IP
CONTINUE TO THE TOP 100 STARTERS FOR 2023 FANTASY BASEBALL
