Can one fantasy baseball sleeper post for Jesus Luzardo double as a fantasy baseball sleeper post for the entire Marlins’ pitching staff? Here we discuss just that, and give you usable tips on turning holiday leftovers into something the whole family can enjoy! Welcome back to The Chew! What’s that? The Chew was canceled? Was Mario Batali canceled and took The Chew down with him or a separate set of canceling circumstances? By the by, you know you’ve done some real grimey shizz when you get canceled after getting famous while wearing Crocs. Jumping the hurdle of “wearing Crocs” needs so much forgiveness as it is, then you still ruined your career? Oh, you messed up really bad then. Any hoo! This isn’t about Crocs (thankfully), this is about all the incredible pitching the Marlins produce every year. No joke, I almost did an Edward Cabrera sleeper, and they’re kinda the same diff. They’ll both be 25 this year; they’ve both been in the minors so long the bell hop at the Motel 6 knows them by their first names; they’ll both be aces, and would already be an impact arm in the majors if not for a very spotty injury history; both might be lucky to throw 140 IP this year; semicolons are fun. The case for Edward Cabrera is he’s slightly cheaper in drafts, but he’s much riskier, due to most recent injuries, and Jesus Luzardo just has more service time under his belt. No lie, this post was originally “Edward Cabrera, 2023 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper,” but by the end of writing the third line, I made the switch, and I’m glad I did, because Jesus Luzardo might be more expensive (barely, still a bargain for the sleeperiness), he’s just a bit safer. In the end, it’s prolly gonna come down to grabbing Luzardo as a number three or four with upside vs. Edward Cabrera as a five or six with upside, and I’d draft both. If they both had 200+ innings in the majors under their belt, and were both guaranteed 160 IP, I’d go Edward Cabrera, but that’s not the case. So, what can we expect from Jesus Luzardo for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Psyche! Before we get into the Jesus Luzardo sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2023 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. Lucky you (if you pay the $10/month). Also, Rudy’s begun to roll out his 2023 fantasy baseball projections. It’s version 1.0 and there’s usually about 4500 versions but just wanted to let you know. Anyway II, the Jesus Luzardo sleeper:

Jesus Luzardo struck out 12 hitters in his 1st start of the year, and in his last start. Baseball is like a cloud in the sky where you can see anything in it. Did I just dazzle you with words? Aw, shucks! All the starts between Jesus Luzardo’s first and last start weren’t as good. Okay, they weren’t bad either: 100 1/3 IP, 10.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 3.11 xFIP, 3.32 ERA, and only a 6.6% barrel rate. Everyone thought he was an ace; he begins to pitch like an ace; he’s still being drafted around 160 overall. Yeah, I have no idea either. He makes most of this happen with a 96 MPH fastball and a devastating 87 MPH change that is only surpassed by a ridonk 84 MPH slider. That change really makes daddy’s jaw drop so I’m able to type this with the drool hanging from my mouttr–damn, mouth! So close!

Jesus Luzardo only threw the change 22.6% of the time, but induced a .190 BAA. What’s kinda interesting in the most infuriating way possible: We still can’t get all baseball sites on the same page when qualifying pitches (or batted ball data for hitters). Statcast says Luzardo threw a curve 30.1% of the time and induced a .157 batting average against, making it his best pitch, but FanGraphs calls that a slider. It looks to me like a slider. So, point for FanGraphs, but why we can’t all agree on all of these little nonsense things that makes Grey motion with his finger next to his ear like he’s going crazy? We all a bunch of Jiminy Glicks trying to process information, or what? We are? Okay, cool.

Jesus Luzardo’s last years in Oakland saw a command issue, and a walk rate of 4.5+. First year in Miami’s Triple-A saw 4.2. This past year with the Marlins? 3.1. His early minors years showed this pattern. He’d get to a new level, lose the strike zone a bit, only to regain in a major way, constantly putting up walk rates of 2.3-ish. He is figuring it out, it’s just taking a while. Like what you tell your mom when she asks you when you’re moving out of the basement — We’re all on different schedules, and you can’t rush perfection.

When you want to know what you’re really dealing with or who’s really dealing, as the case is here, look at how much contact is being made. For pitchers with 100 IP (not a ton, so there’s some great pitchers in this list), the 7th best contact in baseball or rather 7th hardest pitcher to make contact with, it’s Jesus Luzardo. The top six has mostly the best of the best: Burnes, Cease, McClanahanananananananan, Strider, Snell, and Ohtani. Right after Luzardo on that list is Gerrit Cole. Incredibly, when you look at that list, and match it against a list of guys who are in the strike zone, Luzardo is 4th best, behind only Ohtani, Strider and McClanahanananananananan. Luzardo is better at being in the strike zone than Gerrit Cole with less contact being made. Not sure what else to tell you after that. If that doesn’t have you wanting Jesus in every league, I’m guessing you’re an atheist. For 2023, I’ll give Jesus Luzardo projections of 8-9/3.21/1.06/164 in 142 IP with a chance for much more.

Subscribe
Notify of
guest

60 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Schmohawks Bob
Schmohawks Bob
12 days ago

Is it too late to wish you a happy new year? I was just in LA visiting my family, or would’ve liked to take you for a thank you drink or Boba, but understood your need for a safety net from random grateful readers.

Anyhoo, do you subscribe to your notion of not paying for SP in only leagues with $260 team salaries.

For example, in the AL I retain the rights to Shane Bieber for 19, Nestor for 9, and Ohtani for 28

In the NL, it’s Wheeler, Kershaw, and Musgrove for 19, Smyly and Drey Jameson for 5.

Would you keep any of the $19 guys or Ohtani? There’s inflation in these leagues because other teams retain rights to good pitchers too.

I hate paying for starting pitching but kind of like all these expensive pitchers in different ways.

Schmohawks Bob
Schmohawks Bob
Reply to  Grey
12 days ago

Cool, next time.

Unfortunately, it’s 28 for Ohtani. Do you do that?

What about Wheeler, Kershaw, Musgrove, and Bieber for $19.

Schmohawks Bob
Schmohawks Bob
Reply to  Grey
12 days ago

In this league, I’d only get to use him as a pitcher. Somebody else gets to own him as a hitter.

Mike D
Mike D
13 days ago

Luzardo is my number one sleeper that I must have on all my teams. IF healthy, he’s going to below by those numbers you have him projected for. He very well could be SP 19-21 overall, if healthy. Fried, Gallen, Javier, Valdez – in that area.

Tee
Tee
13 days ago

All the sleepers are as strong as ever! Big fan keep raking, pick 6 with the number being the round kept
2. Nolan Arenado
3. Jose Berrios
4. Liam Hendriks
5. Carlos Rodon
9, Emmanuel Clase
10. Seiya Suzuki
11. Triston McKenzie
17. Reid Detmers
18. Will Smith
19. Byron Buxton
20. Fernando Tatis
21. Logan Gilbert
22. Devin Williams

leon
leon
14 days ago

Conforto or Gurriel? Do you see Gurriel being fulltime this year? kind of confused on his playing time. they have a ton of guys. Including lewis. And i have him in dynasty for $21. Thinking maybe i should let him go. Theres Moncada, Conforto, JD martinez, Masataka Yoshida, Bellinger. You would take any of these guys over him? thoughts?

leon
leon
Reply to  Grey
14 days ago

how about the other guys

Bbhhi
Bbhhi
14 days ago

Grey,

I’ve really enjoyed your sleeper posts.

Regardless of whether you believe Andrew Vaughn is a sleeper (in plain sight), I’d be curious to hear your thoughts? For me, he’s got everything you’d want except launch angle for a 1st baseman. His performance to date has been somewhat uninspiring, but I really believe fans forget he was thrown into the deep end without really any minor league experience and challenged with the headwinds constantly changing positions and BO and the adjustment to a 162 game season. His season splits (first half/second) show his wearing down. Further his game splits show moments in the first half of ‘22 where he was regularly delivering multiple hit game strings at a level that speaks of his ceiling….. only possible with great bat-to-ball skills.

Your thoughts?

Bbhhi
Bbhhi
Reply to  Bbhhi
14 days ago

Ps: Yankees should trade for him. His right field power stroke is perfect for the porch

Will
Will
Reply to  Bbhhi
14 days ago

How do you figure that? He hit all of one home run to RF in 2022, the rest were to left or left center:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/andrew-vaughn-683734?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Plus the Yankees already have the left-handed batting Anthony Rizzo at 1b and aiming for the short porch in right.

LennyDykstraIsJustMisUnderstood
LennyDykstraIsJustMisUnderstood
Reply to  Bbhhi
14 days ago

sleeper posts make me sleepy! lol

Will
Will
14 days ago

Pick two starters and one closer out of the following list for me to keep heading into the draft:

Woodruff, Urias, Gausman, Javier, Snell, Gonsolin (starters)
Iglesias, Jansen, Kimbrel (closers)

I’ve got the fifth pick in the draft so I’ll get one of the dropped pitchers back in the first round (pretty sure of that). But which three would you keep? Ten team league, standard categories except 2x saves + holds instead of just saves alone.

Thanks.

Will
Will
Reply to  Grey
14 days ago

OK, thanks. I had Woodruff and Iglesias but am torn between Gausman and Urias. Gausman will generate more Ks than Urias but his home / away splits were pretty bad last season which gives me some pause.

Huffin Gas
Huffin Gas
14 days ago

Even in competitive leagues, you could probably just wait quite a bit and only draft guys like Luzardo, Hunter G-spot, Severino, and Singer because one of those guys probably becomes ace-like next year. There’s a sweet spot in drafts for SPs. Win there, and you’re set. I think you’re going to nail almost all of your sleeper SPs this year.

NJW
NJW
Reply to  Grey
14 days ago

That’s so true. Can’t wait to see if the Dodgers can fix Syndergaard…if they make him into anything close to his old self with their black magic, I’ll really be impressed.

NJW
NJW
Reply to  NJW
14 days ago

Oops, meant to put this below my own reply. Sorry folks.

frankgrimes
frankgrimes
Reply to  Grey
14 days ago

Is waiting on pitching something new this year?

Surprised you took cruz last round…

leon
leon
14 days ago

loudes gurriel or thairo estrada? 15 man dynasty

leon
leon
Reply to  Grey
14 days ago

how about Cron or thairo? thanks

NJW
NJW
14 days ago

One of my favorite sleepers so far…love your point about him starting to pitch like an ace and everyone being still not acting like we are in.

I don’t get it either. Plus, yes, the Marlins are magical. Any “failed” pitcher prospect should ask to go there to get fixed (before being traded to the Dodgers or Yankees, of course).

Jake from State Farm
Jake from State Farm
14 days ago

What is up Mr Grey, was just offered Trevor story for my B Lowe in a keep forever. I have Grissom just waiting to go in my minors. What do you think? Story is a mess but is Lowe back any better long term?
Also dumb question I say keep forever. Is that any different than dynasty? Figured I would finally ask lol. Thanks

Ajhirsch
Ajhirsch
14 days ago

Morning Grey! Love to see some Luzardo posts, wish the A’s didn’t trade him but tis the life of an A’s fan lol.

Wanted to get your take on a trade offer that was proposed to me:

Receive: Vaughn Grissom and Kyle Wright
Give Up: Bryan Reynolds

I’m a little worried about both Braves in this deal, could definitely see Wright as a one season wonder. Who knows how Grissom will do in a full season (though I did see your sleeper post about him too!) Thanks as always!

Five-on-One
Five-on-One
14 days ago

How risky would it be to build a staff exclusively comprised of Grey’s sleepers: Luzardo, Springs, Steele, Greene and Singer. Even Cabrera. (And with more to come, perhaps?) With the bargain prices, one could also build quite the offense. Too risky? Or too freakin’ awesome!

Last edited 14 days ago by Five-on-One
thehombre
thehombre
Reply to  Five-on-One
14 days ago

Better than fine. You can build he sleeper staff every year and probably finish top 3 in SP. It would be cool to see how the sleepers end up as a group on a year to year basis. I try to grab as many as possible and it always works out.

fivepoundbass
fivepoundbass
14 days ago

Crocs do pair nicely with sweatpants. Especially if mom’s basement floor is hard and/or cold.

Dude
Dude
14 days ago

This may be one of my favorite Teams that I’ve had. Still finished 2nd. 13 keepers. Keep forever. I was torn on keeping Story. Now, I will not be. Who is the 13th and final keeper? Miranda or Grissom? Or keep another arm? I have Lodolo and Kirby on my Minor League roster and will have to call both up or throw them back. They would count as my final 2 picks in the draft.

C- MJ Melendez
1st- Olson-K
2nd- Edman-K
3rd- Devers-K
SS- Swanson-K
2B/SS- Story
1B/3B- Alonso-K
LF- Yordan-K
CF- Adolis Garcia-K
RF- Arozarena-K
OF- Haniger
UTL- Miranda
UTL- Grissom
BE- Merrifield
BE- Laureno
BE- Franmil
BE- L. Urias
BE- Josh Rojas

P- Burnes-K
P- Urias-K
P- Woodruff-K
P- Gausman-K
P- May
P- Singer
P- Bassitt
P- Springs
P- Hader

Minor League Roster
Oscar Colas
Dylan Lesko
Anthony Gutierrez
Drew Gilbert
Cade Horton
Nick Lodolo
Brett Baty
George Kirby
Anthony Volpe

Dude
Dude
Reply to  Grey
14 days ago

I don’t have to keep Kirby or Lodolo. They will be my last 2 picks once we do our draft.

Dude
Dude
Reply to  Dude
14 days ago

So without drafting any SP I would have those 4 plus Kirby and Lodolo(if I choose to “call them both up”). 13th keeper would be Hader over Miranda or Grissom or Singer or Springs?

Dude
Dude
Reply to  Grey
14 days ago

Damn! Really? I’ve drafted Miranda the two years, just waiting…..Grissom sure would be a nice replacement for Story and, of course…..we all love Singer and Springs. I don’t know why, I hate keeping a closer. If you say so!!!!!

Dude
Dude
Reply to  Grey
14 days ago

A. Do you feel Hader is more “valuable” as a keeper than Miranda or Grissom?

B. On a different note, has the boat sailed on Alek Thomas? Is it too crowded at this point? 14 team dynasty.

galica1234
galica1234
14 days ago

Grey!!!!

Awesome!!

Never loved Luzardo as much as I do now! Great read, thank you.

Cheers,
Ante