After much success last year in NFBC’s Cutline competition (around top 30 overall out of 1,000 teams), I decided to give it another go. Mind you, they only pay top 20, and I came in approximately (I don’t remember) 30th, so I didn’t win money last year, but money can’t buy happiness. Happiness can only be derived from seeing a Japanese mascot petting a dog. Nothing else counts towards happiness. Luckily, this league doesn’t have a happiness category. You might remember (likely don’t) that I autodrafted the first four rounds last year for my “much success” team, so in some ways this year’s league is a test of Man vs. Machine because I drafted this whole kit and/or kaboodle. Everyone likely knows what a Best Ball league is, but, if you don’t, it’s when you draft a team and the computer manages it for you by choosing who are the best players, and you get those stats. It’s basically one fantasy league removed from the robots taking over and killing us all. Now that I think about it, it’s not Man vs. Machine this year for me; it’s Man vs. Machine vs. Machine. HOLY CRAP, WE’RE OUTNUMBERED! Anyway, here’s my NFBC Best Ball, Points League, 10 team draft recap:
C: Francisco Mejia
C: Danny Jansen
1B: Pete Alonso
2B: Ketel Marte
SS: Francisco Lindor
3B: Rafael Devers
CI: Yoan Moncada
MI: Bo Bichette
OF: Jorge Soler
OF: Ramon Laureano
OF: Kyle Schwarber
OF: Danny Santana
OF: Kyle Tucker
UT: Garrett Hampson
Bench: Renato Nunez, Sam Hilliard, Hanser Alberto, Domingo Santana, Kevin Pillar, Dylan Carlson, Nick Ahmed, Jacob Stallings, Isan Diaz, Kyle Lewis
P: Patrick Corbin
P: Brandon Woodruff
P: Roberto Osuna
P: Eduardo Rodriguez
P: Hyun-Jin Ryu
P: Jake Odorizzi
P: James Paxton
P: Brandon Workman
P: Mitch Keller
Bench: Freddy Peralta, Sean Doolittle, Pablo Lopez, Kyle Gibson, Mark Melancon, Mackenzie Gore, Zach Eflin, Nate Pearson, Zach Davies
WAIT A MINUTE, DID YOU SAY THIS IS A POINTS LEAGUE? WHAT, ARE YOU MALAMONEY NOW WITH THE POINTS LEAGUE POSTS? THIS IS A LATE 3RD ACT TWIST I DIDN’T SEE COMING.
Malmoney is still our Points Leagues guy. The scoring is similar to the RazzSlam. For your gander:
It was a 42 round draft, though I only participated in 40 rounds (I’ll get to that in a moment). These points do not compute like most Points Leagues. According to their scoring, last year in what was admittedly a wonderful year, Shane Bieber accrued 610 points. Michael Conforto walked away with 612 points while being, essentially Michael Conforto. Max Muncy is great, wonderful, adjective, but he scored the same number of points as Jacob deGrom. Yes, that Jacob deGrom. I wouldn’t even say this Points League is skewed for hitting; it’s basically hitters and then reach over your FUPA and grab a bunch of pitchers. Also, I found last year that closers are oddly valuable. Maybe it’s that whole 8 points for a save thing. If Osuna gets three clean saves in a week with one K per game, he gets 36 points. In a one start week from deGrom, where he throws a 10-K shutout with seven baserunners, he scores 36 points.
OKAY, I’M FADING, CAN YOU TELL ME IF YOU USED ANY SPECIFIC BEST-BALL STRATEGY? CAN YOU TELL ME LITERALLY ANYTHING OF USE HERE?
Whether correctly or not, I decided to go upside crazy in this league. As I figure it, winning this league doesn’t matter, because of the awful winner’s stake. It’s $150 to enter and, if you win your league, you get $250. I don’t care about winning $100 on a $150 bet. That’s viciously bad. However, the overall prizes are huge. 1st place gets $70,000 (think out of a thousand teams maybe), and I have to imagine the only people winning that prize are going to have a strong core but also a lot of shares of guys who well exceed their draft spot. So, I got some core guys and then a ton of upsidey guys. I got so many upsidey guys, I didn’t even draft two players who I drafted, because I autodrafted.
YOU TOLD US YOU ACTUALLY SHOWED UP FOR THIS DRAFT, SO YOU LIED?
Not necessarily a lie, but more of an omission of the truth. I was there for the beginning of the draft, but at one point in the middle I accidentally autodrafted two guys — Kyle Tucker and James Paxton. By the middle of this draft, I had six drafts going at once and I lost track. It’s either a first world problem that I paid to join a league that I forgot about or I drafted too many leagues this year. I’m gonna make like a teamster and lean on the latter. Thankfully, Kyle Tucker and Paxton both fit into my motto of only worrying about ceiling vs. floors. Due to the system only counting the good weeks, I only thought about what each guy’s best case scenario could be. No sonavabenches here. Same reason I drafted Nate Pearson, Zach Davies, Mitch Keller, Freddy Peralta, Gore (only share of him so far), Pablopez, Hampson, Hilliard, Domingo, Renato, Isan Bonita, Kyle Lewis, Bichette and Moncada. In theory, I won’t suffer any of their bad starts or games and only get the good ones. Of course, if they’re all bad, then the system will have to play some of them. Same with the batters. I’m going boom or bust, primarily. One quick word about Nate Pearson. He’s unhittable. I don’t know if he makes the team, but he should not only make it, but he should be the Jays’ best pitcher.
OKAY, REAL QUESTION, DID YOU, PETE ALONSO AND KETEL MARTE BUY A TIMESHARE TOGETHER?
No timeshare. I own every share of both of them in every league. I can’t remember a year like this where I am so high on two particular players vs. the draft rooms that I’ve drafted each of them everywhere. Honestly, out of eight leagues, I own one of them in seven of them, and one league was an AL-Only league, where I might’ve taken them both just in case they get traded midseason. They’ve actually come a bit like a packaged pair in a lot of leagues they are so complementary. “You’re handsome!” “No, you!” Wait, not compliments like that. They’re complementary because one is power and a lot average and one is a high average and okay power. Alonso brings 80+ homer power, but with a .260 average and Ketel Marte will hit .370+. Or so I’ve convinced myself. Maybe Alonso will hit 90 homers and Ketel will hit .400. Yeah, that’ll do!
AL only 10 team h2h with OBP over AVG, total bases added, holds added and QS over wins. we keep 3 at last year’s ADP prices (so mercado was a last rounder)
C
1B
2B
SS
3B vlad
MI
CI
OF (4) mercado, gallo
util (1)
SP (want around 8) bieber (went him at 1.6, as i knew 2-3 of the picks before my pick now would be SP, and they were (snell/clevinger)
RP (4)
went bieber so i’d have the ace, not have to draft pitching for a bit, and already had 2 OF (judge or bogaerts would’ve been the pick there if not this build likely). what’s best option here, i don’t draft in the 3rd round as vlad is in that (gallo in 5th), these listed are just available indexed by ADP. missed olson just now by 1 pick. if moncada didn’t just lose his 2B i’d want to go him here. i’d guess hoping for abreu for my 4th rounder (unless i went him here) but that’s 14 picks after this pick i’m making now. OPS rater numbers quoted here:
altuve (24.6, it’s still giving him decent steals numbers)
sale
n.cruz (30.5, OPS rater always values him probably whole rounds over ADP tends to)
morton
moncada (17.8)
merrifield (11.7)
eloy (17.5)
abreu (16.6)
rosario (17.9)
greinke
lemahieu (8.8, the opposite, ADP loves vs expected production)
donaldson (27.2, same, rater likes him more than really anybody)
brantley (14.3)
robert (20.5)
t.anderson (10.9)
a.chapman
correa (21)
osuna
benintendi (14.5)
Robert, Eloy, Cruz for me
Agree with DT
wow, robert is ahead of eloy? i guess that’s the speed right (even the rater says so). if moncada still had 2B i’d think it’d be him possibly (from positional builds mostly, already having 2 OF/1 1 3B and no other hitter)
So sexy
yeah and i do have 2 donkey types (speed wise, vlad isn’t a low AVG guy like gallo, but gallo IS a high OBP guy), lobert/mercado is a good speed mix so far. if altuve still stole i’d str up trust that OPS rater number and go him, but alas (plus i’d shore up some non 3B/OF early)
The Best Ball thing is interesting. Might turn a guy like Foltynewicz into a top 10 pitcher. Guys like Renato Nunez and Freddy Peralta are sneaky good picks in that type of league.
Seems like you need at least two backup catchers in that format, and with a better playing time profile than Jacob Stallings. If two of your three catchers get injured or sent down to the minors, is there any way to pick someone up, or will you really have an empty spot in your lineup?
There’s two faab runs for the whole season
Not sure Stallings’s playing time is the issue…Who else are the Pirates turning to?
Fair enough … now that I think about it, Stallings is actually another sneaky value. He may only have 8 or 9 decent to good weeks, but every one of those will help your team.
It seems to me there is actually even less reason than normal to spend on catchers in the best ball format … but you want enough rostered that at least 2 of the X will have decent weeks, so although I know you are allergic to catchers I still think you need to pick up at least a fourth catcher in the first FAAB. And that could be a strategic move to wait until then to get your fourth because it may be clear who is worth picking up by then.
Perhaps, I don’t know…Figure if I have only a negative 15 points from catchers and someone else has an extra catcher they might have more of a chance of negative points
Grey!!!
Very nice NFBC draft report.
a. Good team with a ton of potential as you say. I like the team a lot.
b. MLB quote of the day for August 29, 1966
‘It’s hard to win a pennant, but it’s harder to lose one.’
Charles William ‘Chuck’ Tanner
Cheers,
Ante
Thanks!
A. The compliments are incoming!
B. Haha
“Maybe Alonso will hit 90 homers…”
That achievement might break several records or something like that.
“…and Ketel will hit .400.”
.406… If he averaged .406 over five years, he’d be Rodgers Hornsby.
.402, not .406. I messed up my own attempt at humor.
All within their sights!
Len,
There are two FAAB periods in the NFBC Cutline contests.
Yeah
H2H league settings for 2020
R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP
K, HR allowed, ERA, WHIP, SV+Holds
Minimum 45 IP per week
9 pitcher slots
No transactions limit
Because of HR allowed and two ratio stats, pitcher streaming should not be wild. Am I right in this thinking or no?
My main objective is to have a H2H league with rampant mindless pitcher streaming not being a thing and not capping the number of moves per week.
We were able to stop the crazy streaming in h2h by simply changing k to k/9 and putting a 7 start minimum on each week.
I think you’re erring too far in devaluing starters. Especially with SV+Holds on top of HR allowed. I’d draft offense for the first 10+ rounds and stack my pitching with mid-relievers. Or maybe increase the number of innings per week to force people to value quality starters. Who wants a staff of a bunch of no-name “numbers?”
Agree with Big Bear, too much value on relievers with that setup
Yeah, I can see how someone could decide to pass on good starters but multiple ones would be needed to get to 45 innings.
12-team league
I can see why K/9 instead of 9 is better.
Yeah, what bigbear said
Morning!
10 team 5×5 auction league, $260 budget. can keep 5 players for up to 3 years. Options-
Trout $50 year 1
Bellinger $12 year 3
Hiura $10 year 1
Conforto $12 year 3
LeMahieu $10 year 1
Glasnow $10 year 1
Darvish $10 year 1
Lindor and trea the biggest names definitely available in the auction, possibly more if others not kept. Thoughts?
Trout, Bellinger, Hiura, darvish, Glasnow for me
Thanks. Comanager and I are debating btw conforto and glasnow. (i don’t like to keep 2 pitchers). But the 1st year/last year difference may be the decider.
Agree with DT
You said it with Pearson. I’m all over him in keepers, drafting him like Paddack last year. You just need to watch a couple innings of him pitching to be totally sold.
Speaking of – in a keep forever, would you prioritize drafting him over Josh James? (Understood that James is ranked above for redrafts). Trying to have both guys as my late round sp gambles, but not sure who to value more in this format…I assume Pearson?
I prefer James but both good targets
Yeah, exactly on Pearson…I watched him and I was like, “Welp, I have to draft him”
James over him tho
12 team, H2H, 6X6, I need to drop one…..drop Lourdes Gurriel or Justin Turner?
Grey, Once I looked back at your rankings and sleeper post on Lourdes, I think you would say drop Turner……and I did. Have a nice day Man!
Agreed
Haha, nice
I mean I realize you’ve blocked it from your mind, but you owned this guy named Odor in every league in 2017. Cust Kayin.
Ouch, burn.
.205/77/30/93/11
It’s wasn’t awful, just not quite 2nd or 3rd round in every league.
Why you doing that to me?
Very mean
I’m a terrible person
Any thoughts on either Ryan Mountcastle or Carter Kieboom for last pick in 28 round draft for shot in the dark flier for shortstop (yes Mountcastle is listed as ss in this league)?
THanks
Kieboom for me
Time to make pick so I went with the Boomer.
Thanks Donkey.
Worried Mountcastle isn’t breaking camp with the O’s
Great post as usual Grey.
Do you participate or have any thoughts on Ottoneu scoring leagues? Do you have a draft strategy when it comes to them?
Do you know if/when DT or Malamoney will be posting this years excel sheet for points leagues?
I play ottoneu roto, not points. I’ve found it very tricky managing the salary cap. Save a little cap space for in-season pickups. And don’t be shy about cutting guys in season and taking the cap penalty. Need to hold on loosely in that format…
Malamoney should be posting his sheet, I hope next week. He spent a lot of time helping Rudy out with the war room.
If you cut players during the season, then make sure to re-auction them as soon as possible to lessen the cap penalty.
Last year, if you cut a $24 McCutchen, then you take a $12 cap penalty. When you re-auction him (30 day waiting period?), then the minimum bid is $12. When you win the auction, you cut him immediately and your cap penalty is only $6.
I don’t play in any
Agree with DT on Malamoney
I have a small dilema, my H2H draft is sunday but i will probably only be able to be there for the first 1/2 hr plus it will be on the phone so i won’t have all the screens etc. This happened last year as well and I ended winning or second can’t remember. For the draft i used modified razzball ranking and ended up w/ a bad pitchinig staff but made some good trades and pickups
my question assumming i get to round three will available should i try to grab a pitcher there? I typically wait until round 5 or just put in my rankings and let it roll?
Depends who’s there but in head to head I don’t mind bumping pitching up a little bit. For the most part I’d say just follow your rankings and take the best player available…
Just give grey or me your password we will draft for you!
For real? I would do that i follow the rankings pretty much and preload my revised order before hand anyway………….My band has a show that day at 3pm
draft is March 08, 2020, 2:30 PM ET
Haha
LoL Help a dude out. I’ll do it. Send me your email and the league deets.
Fine! I’ll draft your team for it…for one million dollars! (Actually, prolly a few hundred)
I don’t know that would kinda be cheating bringing in an ringer….
I like the team a lot. Good value on Soler. Cheap 40hr guy in Schwarber. Pillar and Domingo are going so cheap and will be good in this format. Pretty stacked. I absolutely love ERod, and Davies is a totally under the radar QS machine. I’m so all in on ERod and Davies it’s not even funny. I like talent on Pearson but they babied him last year like nothing Ive ever seen. Overall the team looks awesome.
I don’t bump pitching up in H2H…I treat it quantity over quality, 5th round is plenty early enough, Lenny
Davies may not K that many but will be excellent in other 4 cats. I like him even better in5x5 as a cheap ratio stabilizer. He’s s a great pairing for EdRod or R. Ray.
3 cats I mean. No SVs for ZD.
I figured maybe he’ll go in the lineup when he’s in home games
Now that he’s away from Miller he will be good most everywhere but Coors. Mark my words. He will finish top ten in NL ERA with a good WHIP and win 15 games, albeit with 120k’s but whateves.
It honestly wouldn’t shock me entirely he has good ratios, everything else might be gross tho
If Davies wins 15 games, the Pads will make the post season, and as much as I’d love to see my home town team make the playoffs this year, it’s not happening. I’ll take the under in wins for a thousand, Dave.
yes that is my usual i start thinking about it round 5 or 5 but is round 3 too early to grab one if i’m not going to be on-line longer than 3 rounds?
Can’t you draft a 3rd rounder than autodraft a starter in the 4th?
Final keepers due! 260 budget, old format (no MI/CI, 3 OF’d). Pitchers will likely be pricey. Have to throw back one:
Cole, 40
Soler, 6
Bichette, 6
Laureano, 11
Knee jerk is Cole, but want your input
Thnx in advance!!
I’d lose Soler. Lauereano fine with me also. Wouldn’t get cute tossing Cole back but I would try to trade him.
Agree with DT
Honestly think this is one of your better teams I’ve seen you post. Easily the best SP staff, IMO. Stacked IF. Solid OF. And maybe Bud Black forgets to not play Hampson and Hilliard (HA)!
Yeah, bc it’s a 10 team league
You think that matters?
I think it looks better to people who see me post an NL-Only team when they see a 10-team mixed league team, yeah
Its a radical notion to think you could draft a team with more good players in a 10 team league than in a 15 teamer or 12 team NL. Absolutely radical. No explanation was needed for those who pay attention to those details. Funny though.
Ha, yeah, but you gotta be honest it just looks so stacked compared to most teams I share
Yeah. Indeed!
Haha, yeah, missed that. Funny thing, I actually double checked that before posting and still didn’t catch it. Still solid though.
Thanks!
Howdy Grey!
Yahoo h2h league, can keep 4. Going with Bellinger, Alonso, Aranado, and Hiura.
My question: Any reason I should kick one of those to the curb and keep Bieber instead?
Bieber over Hiura for me
Not for me, AP
Better pitcher. Justin Dunn or Adrian Morejon?
Dunn
Thanks. I like that team you draft. Gonna win you the league!
Hope so!
I got in on The Athletic’s Cutline league. Refused to overpay for a C and now I have d’Arnaud and nothing else. Best C available right now in the 22nd round (slow draft) are: Mejia, Suzuki, J McCann, Castro. I regret nothing.
Never regret, never surrender!
Sup Grey & DT
Thoughts on Yordan with this developing knee situation?
I’m not a doctor but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Prognosis, meh.