Marwin Gonzalez, Top-100 Hitters, 2017 Fantasy Baseball

2017 has been a weird season for baseball. Not only are baseballs leaving ballparks like super balls, but players like Justin Smoak and Logan Morrison are winning fantasy leagues for people. Before the season started, I never thought I would be writing those names on this website. Now, I write them every week (Okay, usually I just have to copy/paste).

While doing some research over the All-Star break, I found more than a dozen players who had already hit more home runs in the first half of 2017 than they ever had in any other full season. That wasn’t even really what I was looking for. I just kept finding more and more of them. One of those players, as you may have guessed because of the title of this article and the number of professional baseball players named Marwin, is Marwin Gonzalez.

Gonzalez is a player I have been keeping an eye on all year and is someone commenters have been asking about a lot lately. Until recently, he still wasn’t playing every day and was moving all over the field. When he did play, though, he was mashing. Son wrote about him in his Bear or Bull series last week, and I recommend going and giving that a read. I’ll wait here while you do.

Like Son goes over in his piece, the biggest difference for Gonzalez this season has been his approach at the plate. His BB% is way up, his K% is way down, and his O-Swing% is down. That all indicates an improved approach at the plate. For proof, here’s a chart!

Marwin Gonzalez’s Plate Discipline

Season	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	SwStr%
2012	32.1 %	58.1 %	43.9 %	6.0 %
2013	37.1 %	60.6 %	47.7 %	7.8 %
2014	35.1 %	61.3 %	46.5 %	8.2 %
2015	36.4 %	66.5 %	50.0 %	11.2 %
2016	35.7 %	65.1 %	48.4 %	12.0 %
2017	28.6 %	59.0 %	41.2 %	7.8 %
Total	34.3 %	62.5 %	46.7 %	9.4 %

So, we get it. He has been great this season when given a chance to play. Now, let’s take a look at what we can expect in the second half. At first glance, the first area you would expect to see some regression is BABIP, where he currently boasts a .346 mark. But here’s the thing. Gonzalez has posted an above-average BABIP for pretty much his entire career. More chart proof, please!

The BABIP is up more this year than in the past, but it would not be at all surprising to see him continue to post a BABIP above the league average. Despite the high BABIP, his hard contact percentage is down and his soft contact percentage is up. His, HR/FB percentage, though, is all the way up to 25.4%. For comparison, the league average for HR/FB% is 13.7% while Aaron Judge is up near 40%.

Season	HR/FB	Soft%	Med%	Hard%
2013	8.0 %	23.3 %	50.0 %	26.7 %
2014	9.0 %	17.7 %	55.4 %	26.8 %
2015	13.8 %	19.5 %	48.7 %	31.8 %
2016	11.6 %	14.7 %	52.0 %	33.2 %
2017	25.4 %	18.2 %	51.4 %	30.4 %
Total	12.6 %	18.0 %	52.4 %	29.6 %

As we have already talked about a bit, the thing that really jumps out about Gonzalez this year is the power. His .272 ISO is more than 120 points above his career average, and that is despite posting a batting average that is more than 50 points higher than his career average. Even for playing with super balls, those numbers are pretty incredible. The guess here is that those numbers come down at least a little bit in the second half.

I am adding Marwin Gonzalez to the Top 100, but I am doing so begrudgingly. Maybe it is just the cynic in me, and maybe it just takes me longer to warm up to players who have already established themselves, or maybe I’m just a jerk. That being said, 2017 has been so weird that who knows anymore. Maybe he’ll win MVP.

Now, a few things worry me about M-Gon in the second half. Some general regression is, of course, at the top of the list. The next is probably playing time. He has been playing more the last few weeks, but he is still a super utility player who doesn’t have an everyday spot on the field or in the lineup. Even if they continue to ride his hot bat, you know that in weekly leagues he is still going to sit at least once or twice, and he is one slump away from sitting 3-4 times a week.

With a juiced lineup on the field in Houston and juiced baseballs all over the play, though, maybe Gonzalez can be one of the guys who gets his chance and turns into a stud. But that lineup in Houston also works against him. The Astros don’t really have a weak spot in their lineup right now and have another pretty talented bat in Evan Gattis that doesn’t have an everyday spot in the lineup. And if that were not enough, they have prospects like Derek Fisher who are ready to step in and contribute. M-Gon doesn’t exactly have any long-term lineup security.

One thing super utility players who are hitting well usually do when they start to play every day: stop hitting. So, while it is fun to project short term success into a full season of production, many times these players are utility players for a reason.

Now, for the rest of the Top 100. Not too many changes here since I just overhauled the list on Wednesday for the second half, and there have only been a few games since then.

Note: These rankings are considered ROS Trade Value

**Mike Maher’s Top ¹⁰⁰ Hitters**

(Rankings based on 12-team Roto. GREEN = player rising. RED = player dropping. BLUE = new to the 100.)

Rank	Name	Team	Pos
1	Mike Trout	LAA	OF
2	Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	1B
3	Bryce Harper	WSH	OF
4	Nolan Arenado	COL	3B
5	Daniel Murphy	WSH	1B/2B
6	Jose Altuve	HOU	2B
7	Aaron Judge	NYY	OF
8	Kris Bryant	CHC	3B/OF
9	Mookie Betts	BOS	OF
10	Anthony Rizzo	CHC	1B
11	Joey Votto	CIN	1B
12	Charlie Blackmon	COL	OF
13	George Springer	HOU	OF
14	Carlos Correa	HOU	SS
15	Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	OF
16	Corey Seager	LAD	SS
17	Nelson Cruz	SEA	OF
18	Francisco Lindor	CLE	SS
19	Freddie Freeman	ATL	1B
20	Jose Ramirez	CLE	3B/OF
21	Robinson Cano	SEA	2B
22	J.D. Martinez	DET	OF
23	Marcell Ozuna	MIA	OF
24	Manny Machado	BAL	3B/SS
25	Cody Bellinger	LAD	1B
26	Jean Segura	SEA	2B/SS
27	Miguel Sano	MIN	3B/OF
28	Dee Gordon	MIA	2B
29	Jake Lamb	ARI	3B
30	Edwin Encarnacion	CLE	1B
31	Josh Donaldson	TOR	3B
32	Ryan Braun	MIL	OF
33	Wil Myers	SD	1B/OF
34	Justin Turner	LAD	3B
35	Anthony Rendon	WSH	3B
36	Yoenis Cespedes	NYM	OF
37	Khris Davis	OAK	OF
38	Brian Dozier	MIN	2B
39	Jose Abreu	CWS	1B
40	Billy Hamilton	CIN	OF
41	Adam Duvall	CIN	OF
42	Ryan Zimmerman	WAS	1B
43	Xander Bogaerts	BOS	SS
44	Eric Thames	MIL	1B/OF
45	Justin Upton	DET	OF
46	Andrew Benintendi	BOS	OF
47	Kyle Seager	SEA	3B
48	Matt Kemp	ATL	OF
49	Miguel Cabrera	DET	1B
50	Matt Carpenter	STL	1B/2B/3B
51	Gary Sanchez	NYY	C
52	Rougned Odor	TEX	2B
53	Chris Owings	ARI	2B/SS
54	Ian Desmond	COL	OF
55	A.J. Pollock	ARI	OF
56	Corey Dickerson	TB	OF
57	Lorenzo Cain	KC	OF
58	Christian Yelich	MIA	OF
59	Jedd Gyorko	STL	2B/3B/SS
60	Elvis Andrus	TEX	SS
61	Scott Schebler	CIN	OF
62	Buster Posey	SF	C/1B
63	Starling Marte	PIT	OF
64	Andrew McCutchen	PIT	OF
65	Michael Conforto	NYM	OF
66	Jay Bruce	NYM	OF
67	Eric Hosmer	KC	1B
68	Ian Kinsler	DET	2B
69	Mitch Haniger	SEA	OF
70	Salvador Perez	KC	C
71	Jonathan Schoop	BAL	2B
72	Travis Shaw	MIL	1B/3B
73	Adrian Beltre	TEX	3B
74	Avisail Garcia	CHW	OF
75	Mike Moustakas	KC	3B
76	Carlos Gomez	TEX	OF
77	Mark Trumbo	BAL	OF
78	Justin Smoak	TOR	1B
79	Ian Happ	CHC	2B/OF
80	Evan Longoria	TB	3B
81	Ryon Healy	OAK	1B/3B
82	Adam Jones	BAL	OF
83	Michael Brantley	CLE	OF
84	Mark Reynolds	COL	1B
85	Brett Gardner	NYY	OF
86	Eugenio Suarez	CIN	3B
87	Yonder Alonso	OAK	1B
88	Domingo Santana	MIL	OF
89	Logan Morrison	TB	1B
90	Justin Bour	MIA	1B
91	Keon Broxton	MIL	OF
92	Starlin Castro	NYY	2B
93	Carlos Santana	CLE	1B
94	Eduardo Nunez	SF	3B/SS/OF
95	Jonathan Villar	MIL	2B/3B/SS
96	Hanley Ramirez	BOS	1B
97	Trevor Story	COL	SS
98	Jose Bautista	TOR	OF
99	Ender Inciarte	ATL	OF
100	Marwin Gonzalez	HOU	1B/3B/OF

The Honorable Mentions (Next Five In…)

Rank	Name	Team	Pos
101	Cameron Maybin	LAA	OF
102	Tommy Pham	STL	OF
103	David Peralta	ARI	OF
104	Chris Taylor	LAD	3B/2B/OF
105	Josh Harrison	PIT	2B/3B

Dropped from the rankings: DJ LeMahieu, Kendrys Morales

As always, disagree with anything here? Have any questions or comments? Want to tell Mike how great he is or how much you agree with him? Want relationship or investment advice?

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If you want to talk fantasy baseball or football or have players you want Mike to feature, hit him up on Twitter at @mikeMaher or post a comment below!

Marwin Gonzalez’s Plate Discipline

Mike Maher’s Top 100 Hitters

The Honorable Mentions (Next Five In…)

**Mike Maher’s Top ¹⁰⁰ Hitters**