Justin Smoak, Top 100 Hitters, 2017 Fantasy Baseball

Let’s begin by having a moment of silence for the fact that we will be without Mike Trout for two months. I dropped him to 23 in the rankings below, which are considered ROS trade value. I know it is hard to justify Trout over some talented players who aren’t going to miss two months, I just couldn’t bring myself to drop him much lower. The Razzball Player Rater has him all the way down to 71 for ROS projections. Personally, if I were to trade Trout, I would hold out for the highest bid and make someone overpay. Otherwise, I’m not moving him. And in keeper leagues, I would still have him at number 1 and wouldn’t entertain offers.

Now, for the players who are playing right now. The two players I moved up and want to focus on this week are Justin Bour and Justin Smoak. I received some questions and comments on here and on Twitter last week about Smoak, so let’s take a look at him first. He has looked great this season, but I have my doubts.

While Smoak’s slash line and counting stats look great right now, unless he finally figured everything out at 30 years old, I have my doubts. Yes, he is currently on pace for almost 40 home runs. Yes, he is striking out 17.9% of the time, which is almost half as much as he did last season and is well below his career average of 23.5%. Through 55 games and over 200 plate appearances in 2017, the metrics back up what he is doing.

But here’s the thing.

Smoak has been in the league for eight seasons and has over 3,000 plate appearances. He’s a career .227 / .311 / .402 hitter. His previous high for home runs in a season is 20, which he did back in 2013. Take a look at his wOBA by season:

Translation: Smoak isn’t this good. This probably isn’t going to last, and a regression is coming.

Now, as far as Justin Bour goes, I am still skeptical but am less skeptical. Bour is 29 but has just over 1,000 plate appearances at the MLB level. He has displayed this kind of power before, both at the major league level and in the minors, so it is easier to believe that his current power stroke is real. Will he continue to hit up around .300? No, but it is reasonable to expect him to hit in the .250-.270 range and offer up 30 home runs, as long as he can stay healthy (which he can’t always do).

The main point here is that, while Bour is only a year younger, he doesn’t have as much of a negative track record that we can hold against him. He has also displayed plus-power in the past, while Smoak has always struggled to fulfill his potential in that department. Bour is likely to regress a bit as well, but I don’t think his regression will be as extreme as Smoak’s. If I had to pick between these two first basemen as a guy I value higher ROS I am taking Bour every time. Maybe I’m just biased now that I live in South Florida, or maybe their track records are telling us everything we need to know about them…

Note: These rankings are considered ROS Trade Value

Mike Maher’s Top ¹⁰⁰ Hitters

(Rankings based on 12-team Roto. GREEN = player rising. RED = player dropping. BLUE = new to the 100.)

Rank	Name	Team	Pos
1	Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	1B
2	Bryce Harper	WSH	OF
3	Mookie Betts	BOS	OF
4	Nolan Arenado	COL	3B
5	Jose Altuve	HOU	2B
6	Charlie Blackmon	COL	OF
7	Kris Bryant	CHC	3B/OF
8	Joey Votto	CIN	1B
9	Daniel Murphy	WSH	1B/2B
10	Corey Seager	LAD	SS
11	Nelson Cruz	SEA	OF
12	Trea Turner	WSH	SS/2B/OF
13	Francisco Lindor	CLE	SS
14	Manny Machado	BAL	3B/SS
15	Anthony Rizzo	CHC	1B
16	Wil Myers	SD	1B/OF
17	Miguel Cabrera	DET	1B
18	Josh Donaldson	TOR	3B
19	Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	OF
20	Robinson Cano	SEA	2B
21	Carlos Correa	HOU	SS
22	J.D. Martinez	DET	OF
23	Mike Trout	LAA	OF
24	Matt Kemp	ATL	OF
25	Brian Dozier	MIN	2B
26	Ryan Braun	MIL	OF
27	George Springer	HOU	OF
28	Jose Ramirez	CLE	3B/OF
29	Aaron Judge	NYY	OF
30	Miguel Sano	MIN	3B/OF
31	Yoenis Cespedes	NYM	OF
32	Michael Conforto	NYM	OF
33	Jake Lamb	ARI	3B
34	Eric Thames	MIL	1B/OF
35	Edwin Encarnacion	CLE	1B
36	Christian Yelich	MIA	OF
37	Ian Desmond	COL	OF
38	Xander Bogaerts	BOS	SS
39	Marcell Ozuna	MIA	OF
40	Andrew Benintendi	BOS	OF
41	Khris Davis	OAK	OF
42	Buster Posey	SF	C/1B
43	Mark Trumbo	BAL	OF
44	Kyle Seager	SEA	3B
45	Justin Upton	DET	OF
46	Michael Brantley	CLE	OF
47	Jose Abreu	CWS	1B
48	Anthony Rendon	WSH	3B
49	A.J. Pollock	ARI	OF
50	Corey Dickerson	TB	OF
51	Cody Bellinger	LAD	1B
52	Carlos Gonzalez	COL	OF
53	Ryan Zimmerman	WAS	1B
54	Freddie Freeman	ATL	1B
55	Matt Carpenter	STL	1B/2B/3B
56	Adam Duvall	CIN	OF
57	Hanley Ramirez	BOS	1B
58	Jay Bruce	NYM	OF
59	Gary Sanchez	NYY	C
60	Adam Jones	BAL	OF
61	Rougned Odor	TEX	2B
62	Jonathan Villar	MIL	3B/SS
63	Chris Davis	BAL	1B
64	Evan Longoria	TB	3B
65	Albert Pujols	LAA	1B
66	Eugenio Suarez	CIN	3B
67	DJ LeMahieu	COL	2B
68	Jedd Gyorko	STL	2B/3B/SS
69	Billy Hamilton	CIN	OF
70	Gregory Polanco	PIT	OF
71	Jean Segura	SEA	2B/SS
72	Ian Kinsler	DET	2B
73	Lorenzo Cain	KC	OF
74	Mitch Haniger	SEA	OF
75	Eric Hosmer	KC	1B
76	Chris Owings	ARI	2B/SS
77	Dee Gordon	MIA	2B
78	Justin Turner	LAD	3B
79	Scott Schebler	CIN	OF
80	Elvis Andrus	TEX	SS
81	Carlos Santana	CLE	1B
82	Aledmys Diaz	STL	SS
83	Keon Broxton	MIL	OF
84	Ian Happ	CHC	OF
85	Salvador Perez	KC	C
86	Yonder Alonso	OAK	1B
87	Starlin Castro	NYY	2B
88	Brett Gardner	NYY	OF
89	Trevor Story	COL	SS
90	Andrew McCutchen	PIT	OF
91	Jose Bautista	TOR	OF
92	Alex Bregman	HOU	3B
93	Odubel Herrera	PHI	OF
94	Justin Bour	MIA	1B
95	Ender Inciarte	ATL	OF
96	Adrian Beltre	TEX	3B
97	Mark Reynolds	COL	1B
100	Eduardo Nunez	SF	3B/SS/OF
98	Yasmani Grandal	LAD	C
99	Jonathan Schoop	BAL	2B

The Honorable Mentions (Next Five In…)

Rank	Name	Pos	Team
101	Justin Smoak	TOR	1B
102	Ryon Healy	OAK	1B/3B
103	Travis Shaw	MIL	1B/3B
104	Aaron Hicks	NYY	OF
105	Kevin Kiermaier	TB	OF

Dropped from the rankings: Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Altherr, Avisail Garcia, David Peralta, Devon Travis.

As is always the case with the Top 100 rankings, don’t agree with something?

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If you want to talk fantasy baseball or football or have players you want Mike to feature, hit him up on Twitter at @mikeMaher or post a comment below!

Mike Maher’s Top 100 Hitters

The Honorable Mentions (Next Five In…)

Mike Maher’s Top ¹⁰⁰ Hitters