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The 2016 fantasy baseball rankings are under that link.  Why are you lifting your computer?  Not literally under that link!  Okay, you’re thick like a CVS receipt folded in half twelve times.  In years past, the top 40 starters is a mix of guys I like and don’t like.  Like a high cholesterol cow, it’s about half and half.  This year, I really had to struggle to find guys that I didn’t want to draft in the top 40 starters.  There are four starters I wouldn’t draft in this top 40.  Four!  In the top 20 outfielders, I kept going back to how there was about eighty outfielders I would draft.  Here, it’s kinda different.  I don’t want to draft so many starters, but there’s a crapton of decent ones.  As with past rankings, my tiers and projections are included for the low, low price of $19.99!  Kidding, they’re free.  The oxygen you need to live while reading them is gonna cost you though.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2016 fantasy baseball:

21. Johnny Cueto – This tier started in the top 20 starters for 2016 fantasy baseball.  This tier ends at Lester.  I called this tier, “Fetty Wap.”  As for Cueto, here’s what I said this offseason, “(Cueto) signed with the Giants.  I know it might seem illogical that I went from saying Greinke, Samardzija and Price were overpaid to now saying Cueto really got shafted by having a subpar three months at the end of last year.  Just not sure how he went from a top twenty pitcher in the majors to having a few bad months and only getting $130 million.  I mean, he had a 2.71 ERA over the last five seasons.  Well, I ain’t crying over spilled Cueto, especially since he seems like a bully.  Then again, maybe Jason LaRue was the real bully.  So, with Cueto going to San Francisco, they now have two of the top pitchers whose peripherals don’t jive with their ERA (Matt Cain is the other).   Cueto took a rather large step back last year with K-rate (7.5 down from 8.9) and BABIP (.281 up from .238).  A word (or 17+ words) on BABIP.  Most pitchers have around a .300 BABIP, but Cueto always produced weak contact, which led to a lower than normal BABIP, until last year that is.  His weak contact was from pitching efficiently to the edges of the strike zone, though that doesn’t full coalesce since last year he had an even better walk rate.  His velocity was down, so maybe that coupled with less ground balls led to more runs.  Whatever the case (Grey’s throwing out everything he just said!), I think AT&T Park and the NL West will stave off a lot of Cueto’s decline for at least a year.  Will depend on where he’s being drafted, but I could see getting back in on Cueto if the draft value is there.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2016 Projections: 14-9/3.31/1.09/186 in 210 IP

22. Cole Hamels – More meh, nah’mean?  I will say this about Hamels right after this clunky intro to a sentence, he looked better last year than he had in some time, if not ever.  He had his 2nd highest Swinging Strike rate of his career (6th best in the league), the 11th best swing rate for balls outside the strike zone and the 8th least times contact was made with balls outside the strike zone.  Shorthand:  when a batter is swinging outside of the strike zone vs. Hamels they were either missing or making terrible contact.  I obviously don’t love his age, but he seems to be fending off Father Time with a spatula, which is the only way you can stave him off according to my unpublished graphic novel.  2016 Projections:  14-10/3.60/1.18/202 in 204 IP

23. Francisco Liriano – He has two years in a row with a 3.38 ERA and at least a 9.7 K/9.  And, for some crazy reason, I’m the only one that ever ranks him in the top 25 starters every year, Grey says modestly.  I get that his WHIP is usually on the high side due to walks, but the other pitchers in this tier don’t have drawbacks?  Rhetorical!   I understand being leery of his walks, but don’t say F to Liriano.  The previous sentence was from a Play On Words Generator.  2016 Projections:  13-9/3.46/1.23/195 in 180 IP

24. Jon Lester – This guy feels like he’ll be a pitcher that, when you own him, you don’t necessarily hate him, but also don’t necessarily love him either.  I’m not even sure if that makes sense, but he just produces a lot of meh in me and I don’t love my first starter giving me the mehs.  I get enough mehs from middle infielders and what’s in the fridge after my Cougar goes shopping.  Quinoa?  Really?  Wrigley also doesn’t excite me for pitchers.  You get to August and it’s 99% humidity and popups are flying out.  Lester’s likely safer than a lot of guys after him, but you’re moving into a zone where you either should’ve drafted a starter already or you might be better waiting for football to start.  2016 Projections:  15-10/3.51/1.14/199 in 206 IP

25. Steven Matz – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Walker.  I call this tier, “Gluttony.”  By the tier name, I mean I’m looking at this tier and saying, “I’ll take one of those starters…and one of those…and that one…Oh, man, I want all of them.”  Am I being gluttonous?  Can Anonymous hack into Dictionary.com and change the definition of gluttonous?  I’m going to answer yes to all of my questions and I don’t even remember the first question I asked.  I’m just bunghole crazy for these starters and I won’t stop being crazy for them until I own them.  This is gonna sound straight up crazy, but I could see owning all three of the guys from this tier.  I will go over how to draft a staff in a later post, but I am head over heals for all of the starters in this tier.  Some of you might be thinking, “These guys *could* be good, but they’re all really young.”  Good point (it’s not a good point).  Out of the top 15 starters last year, there was one guy over 30 years old for the entire season (Greinke).  One guy!  You might think that’s an anomaly.  It’s not.  Dr. James Andrews doesn’t have a fleet of Rolls Royces because pitchers’ arms hold up well.  It takes a lot to throw a ball 3,000 to 4,000 times a year.  If I had to pick a few pitchers out of the top 20 that could disappoint, I’d look immediately at Greinke, Price and Scherzer because they’re older.  Of course, Matz being 24 years old doesn’t make me love him.  His 94 MPH fastball does that.  His 9+ K/9 stuff with a mid-2 BB/9 does that.  That many thought he was the best prospect arm in the Mets system does that.  That he already has Tommy John surgery out of the way, which means he has two less years on his arm, does that.  If he takes even the tiniest steps forward, he could be the best arm in the stacked Mets’ rotation this year.  The only drawback will be he could be shut down mid-September, but that’s a long time from now, says my Far Side calendar.  2016 Projections:  12-7/3.34/1.12/180 in 175 IP

26. Carlos Rodon – I already gave you my Carlos Rodon sleeper.  I wrote it while gently explaining to Cougs that she should try out for Worst Cooks In America.  2016 Projections:  13-8/3.52/1.31/182 in 180 IP

27. Taijuan Walker – I already gave you my Taijuan Walker sleeper.  I wrote it while whipping, but not nae-nae’ing.  2016 Projections: 12-10/3.41/1.17/185 in 194 IP

28. Adam Wainwright – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Martinez.  I call this tier, “Spotlight:  Cardinals caught abusing pitchers.”  I’m not sure if it’s institutional thing or the Cards should be institutionalized, but it feels like every year I find my way into wanting to like Cardinals pitchers, then looking at their previous year workload and getting scared off.  Or, in Wainwright’s case, just don’t want to mess with him.  I don’t want any part of these Cards pitchers, and, while they’re being drafted, I’ll check my email or draft a hitter.  As for Wainwright, I truly believe he is getting by on good vibes and bad farts.  He returned last year with a 89 MPH and a 6.4 K/9.  Granted, it was in only 28 IP, but the year before, in 227 IP, he had a 7.1 K/9 and a 90 MPH.  Whoopie doo.  Maybe he can have a John Lackey-in-2015-type year (7.2 K/9 with a 2.77 ERA), but, ya know what, I’ll just draft Lackey a hundred picks later and forget about Wainwright.  2016 Projections: 14-8/3.57/1.09/134 in 175 IP

29. Michael Wacha – He was already above where he should’ve been for the year in August and then he pitched in September.  How’d that turn out?  Oh, terrific.  Damn, I might be using the word terrific incorrectly there.  Wacha had a 7.88 ERA in 24 IP in September.  Well, I guess that’s terrific if the price of owning Wacha in September was a 7.89 ERA and he was on The Price is Right.  Though, I’m not sure you win the Showcase Showdown by having your ERA closest to the actual ERA.  I’m pretty much hoping Wacha gets shut down for Tommy John surgery early in March so we can draft him again next year.  2016 Projections:  12-9/3.51/1.27/146 in 185 IP

30. Carlos Martinez – Here’s one Cardinal pitcher that just said enough already and came down with a sore shoulder in September so he could stop pitching.  There’s a lot to love with C-Mart — great velocity, K-rate, ground balls, reduced walks, solid team behind him…Really, the only issue is I’m freaked out over his innings increase last year.  Here’s a general point on all rankings, starters or hitters, if you’re not feeling someone, then just skip them.  This is especially true with pitchers and outfielders where there’s an abundance of decent guys and only five to six slots to fill.  Is it really worth it to draft C-Mart (Or Wainwright or Kershaw or any pitcher I said to avoid) when there’s upwards of fifty other pitchers to draft?  That’s rhetorical, homey.  2016 Projections: 12-6/3.43/1.27/148 in 155 IP

31. Yu Darvish – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Samardzija.  I call this tier, “Drafting like sugar packets on Nicole Kidman’s leg.”  This is a tier of pitchers that I’ll happily draft as my number two starter and maybe even get some as a number three.  Yes, I like Darvish, who isn’t due back until May, more than Wainwright, who is already back.  Darvish is a beast when on the mound.  Not a beast like when your girl wakes in the morning with smeared mascara.  I mean, a beast like a career 11.2 K/9 in 545 1/3 IP.  He’s basically Kimbrel as a starter.  Also, you have a DL slot, right?  So, fill it with Darvish until he returns in May.  As dozens of other pitchers have shown, Tommy John surgery is like one long bout of the flu.  Annoying while it’s happening, takes some time to recover, but when you’re recovered, you think back a week later and you forget which days you were out from work.  Was it Monday or Tuesday?   See, you don’t remember!  Darvish is due back in May.  Reports will say early May, some will say mid-May, some will say early-June.  June 1st is a safe bet, so he’ll get four months and 130 IP.  10.7 K/9 is a safe estimate, even though he should be much better, so that’s 155 Ks.  Usually pitchers return with some control problems.  I’ll give him around a 3.6 BB/9 and a 1.26 WHIP.  Okay, could be much better, but those are safe numbers.  ERA is fickle but I don’t see why he’d have a ERA over 3.60, and probably closer to 3.25, barring bad luck.  130 IP is about 20 starts, so figure ten wins.  Again, that’s a very safe estimate.  So, 10 wins, 3.60 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 155 Ks and couple that with a starter you have for two months while Yu’s DL’d, and, yeah, I’m drafting him.  2016 Projections:  10-4/3.60/1.26/155 in 130 IP

32. Michael Pineda – What if I told you he had a better year last year when he had a 4.37 ERA than in 2014 when he had a 1.89 ERA?  Would you believe me?  What if I told you there’s a man running for president of Canada that wants to build a wall along the border to keep out Americans?  Would you call me a liar?  Or would you say kaboom after making a motion with your hands like I just dropped a truth bomb?  Last year, Pineda had a 8.7 K/9 and a 1.2 BB/9.  I’ve explained this in the past, but it’s worth repeating (for those that didn’t read it the last 35 times I’ve written it).  A guy with a 7 point difference between his K-rate and walk rate is more than likely a borderline ace.  Whether that means 10 K/9 and a 3 BB/9 — Chris Archer — or 9 K/9 and 2 BB/9 — Danny Salazar.  The further those two go apart the more likely the better the pitcher, i.e., Scherzer at 10+ K/9 and 1.4 BB/9.  The closer those two rates come together the less attractive the pitcher, i.e., Yovani Gallardo 6 K/9 and a 3.3 BB/9.  I say “more likely” because there’s always exceptions — a guy pitches in a terrible park, bad defense, gives up a ton of homers, unlucky BABIP, etc.  The last exception haunted Pineda last year — .332 BABIP.  He had a 2.95 xFIP and could easily this year have a 2.50 ERA as easily as a 4+.  I’d take my chances on a guy that walks no one having better luck.  2016 Projections:  13-6/3.32/1.10/145 in 150 IP

33. Raisel Iglesias – I need to get to the end of the rankings and write a sleeper post for every starter in this tier.  Raisel Iglesias, or Raise the Church Roof as poorly translated subtitles call him, is about to have his presence known to the world.  A bunch of these starters that I’m calling sleepers, probably won’t even be sleepers by the time we get to April.  Reminds me of last year when I said Carrasco was a sleeper in December and then by April I needed to rank him in my top 20 overall so I could draft him.  He still paid dividends and was worth that draft slot, but a sleeper, per se?  Probably not.  Just like Raisel, McCullers, Pineda likely won’t be.  That doesn’t mean they’re not worth the reach/grab/verb.  Iglesias has some nasty pitches, church.  Mid-90s fastball, filthy slider and a changeup that works.  He even gets ground balls, which is butter for a guy that could have a 10 K/9.  He projects as a 9.2-9.9 K/9 with a 2.50-ish BB/9.  As we just learned, that’s the making of an ace.  Raise the church roof, indeed.  2016 Projections:  9-6/3.07/1.12/158 in 150 IP

34. Garrett Richards – There’s a bit of voodoo and gut going into Richards being this high.  His 2015 numbers don’t say, “Hey, wanna get into bed with me so we can stream an entire season of a show on Netflix?”  They say more, “Could you put on the humidifier?  My nostrils are dry.”  Ya know, real boring shizz.  He had a 7.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 3.80 xFIP.  Yawnstipating at best, and top 60 starter at worst.   Here’s where my gut comes in.  He throws fast (95.5 MPH, third highest in the majors).  He had a year of 8.8 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 2014.  He’s only 27.  I think the problem came last year due to him throwing too many juicy strikes.  His Hard Contact rate went up along with pitches being pulled.  The good news, he can and has been better.  The bad news, he has a smaller sample size of being terrific than of being decent but not great.  Moderately boring news, even if he just repeats last year, it’s not terrible.  The Not Necessarily The News, I want your MTV!  2016 Projections: 14-10/3.44/1.21/189 in 205 IP

35. Patrick Corbin – This guy feels like he’s being forgotten, and might be the only legit sleeper in this tier.  I don’t blame some of you for forgetting him.  There’s a shizzton of starters to draft, so if you forget a few, you’re not to blame.  The universe is to blame.  Just as the universe is to blame for you not being able to refuse dessert and not changing your underwear.  Stupid universe!  You know who Corbin is?  The guy that you’re going to be begging to keep pitching in September because he’s been so good, then he will pitch in September and fail.  Don’t roll your eyes, my Magic Eight Ball happens to be very specific.  Corbin is safer and a tad less upsidey as other guys in this tier, but no less worth drafting.  2016 Projections:  14-6/3.45/1.20/161 in 180 IP

36. Jake Odorizzi – Yes, this tier is ridunk long.  What can I say, there’s a ridunk number of great pitchers.  And just think, we haven’t even gotten to Shane Greene yet!  Kidding, JB!  For those wondering, yes, Odorizzi is ranked above Zimmermann (and Sonny Gray and Hisashi and you name ’em.  Side note:  I go through every team and every starter, so before you ask in the comments if I forgot someone, consider that I may not just like a player as much as someone who has already been ranked).  Instead of Odorizzi vs. Zimmermann, which really wasn’t even a contest, I struggled with Odorizzi vs. his teammate, Smyly.  I ended up going with Odorizzi because of his jump in velocity last year and likelihood of Odorizzi pitching an extra 30 IP.  Odorizzi does have some demons, and his xFIP of 3.96 reveals some of them.  If you’re wondering, I don’t think Odorizzi can become 2016’s Archer.  Archer throws about two miles faster and has a slider that could make Ted Williams on PEDs flinch.  2016 Projections: 9-12/3.53/1.18/185 in 195 IP

37. Yordano Ventura – By the time it took me to write this sentence, Yordano started a fight with a girl at a bar that just wanted to hang out with her friends, picked a fight with a meter maid that was a man but there’s no gender neutral term for them, threw a pitch at a 12-year-old at a Make-A-Wish fundraiser and asked a man behind him in line at Starbucks to allow three feet of free space then pulled out a ruler, measured 34 inches and punched said man.  My question is if I hadn’t written that sentence would those events still had transpired?  Tree falling in the woods with no one to hear it there.  So, Yordano’s a bit of a flake-slash-hothead-Slash-Axl-Izzy.  He still throws 96 MPH on average from his buck-twenty frame and is still young to take a step forward from a 8.6 K/9 last year.  2016 Projections:  14-9/3.55/1.22/191 in 195 IP

38. Jeff Samardzija – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Giants.  Great, he lands in a favorable place and now I can’t just write him off.  One of the keys to winning fantasy baseball, which reads like a Bleacher Report title, is having a short memory and a long memory.  The key is knowing when to use the short memory and when to use the long memory.  So, what do we use with Samardzija?  Do we write off his 2015 where he had a 4.96 ERA and a 6.9 K/9?  Or do we have a long memory and hashtag never forget?  In the NL West in AT&T Park, I think we have to forget 2015, which disappoints me as much as it likely disappoints you.  His stuff is there, he just stopped trusting it.  His fly ball rate went up, which is a terrible thing to do in Chicago.  From looking at the numbers, I believe he tried to curtail homers by abandoning his fastball and using his slider more, which was not working for him.  He used his slider 24% of the time, which was 14th most in the majors, and he had the 2nd worst slider runs above average.  Fool me once, shame on you.  In Texas, we say don’t fool me again, because it’s not cool, but, unfortch, I would draft Samardzija again in his new digs.  Homers don’t fly out as easily, so his fly balls won’t kill him; he’ll be facing pitchers hitting and the NL; he just needs to fix his slider.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2016 Projections:  11-9/3.66/1.19/197 in 215 IP

39. Masahiro Tanaka – This is a new tier.  This tier goes into the top 60 starters for 2016 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Names.”  Okay, technically, all players have names.  Even when Prince Fielder changed his name to Weird Symbol Fielder, most still called him Prince.  What I mean by this tier name is these guys are more well known, and will likely be drafted before this point, which is fine with me, because I don’t plan on owning any of them.  As for Tanaka, I’m being unfair with this ranking.  He’s a mid-8 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 pitcher, which is better than about five or so pitchers above him.  He’s also good for wins.  Only thing he’s not good for is tendons, and those funky tendons are baked into the rankings, which gives you some meatballs of odd origin at the dish, pho reals.  2016 Projections:  11-6/3.37/1.04/148 in 160 IP

40. Sonny Gray – By the end of this blurb, Sonny Gray is going to be singing Everything’s Gonna Be Alright (Ghetto Bastard) by Naughty by Nature.  Or A Boy Named Sue by Johnny Cash.  Or Father of Mine by Everclear.  Or Cat’s in the Cradle by Various Artists.  Damn, they don’t make songs about bastard sons like they used to.  Gray has been remarkably durable.  I remember I had a hangnail one day and there were 200 comments and I was like, “I’m gonna answer these with my toes.”  Oh, wait, that’s my durability, me Grey, not Gray Gray or F. Gary Gray.  Two seasons in a row now he’s had seasons of at least 208 IP.  Impressive for a 26-year-old.  Hard to believe he can’t do around 200 innings again, but that’s where the positivity ends.  Last year, he had a .255 BABIP.  The A’s play in a stadium that notoriously has a low BABIP, but Gray is getting lucky by those standards, and he’s been lucky in road games too.  If his BABIP bumps up to .288.  With that, a 3.40-ish ERA will be close behind.  Not terrible if he were still getting Ks.  He’s not.  In 2013, Gray used his 4-seamer 50.5% of the time.  Last year, he used it only 37.7% of the time.  His two-seamer usage went from 14.1% to 23.3% in those two years.  Pitchers often use a two-seamer for a ground ball vs. a strikeout.  That has worked.  He had the 13th best ground ball rate last year, right next to Yordano.  Only Yordano gets Ks that Gray can only dream about.  When Gray used the four-seamer more, he had a 9.4 K/9.  Last year, it was down to 7.3.  Gray is better than average for real baseball, due to innings and keeping his club in the game.  For fantasy, I wouldn’t bank on his 2.73 ERA repeating.  2016 Projections:  11-12/3.45/1.16/163 in 205 IP

   
  1. Random Collmenter says:
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    A. No Sonny Gray in the top 40?!
    B. Seriously, no Sonny Gray?
    C. There is no C.

  2. apoxonbothyourhouses says:
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    No Stroman in the top-40, either?

    That’s muy interesante.

  3. Curt C says:
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    Love ur rankings, Lets Go Matz!

  4. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!

    Wow! Just awesome.

    a. I agree that I could see anchoring my entire staff around that Matz tier. And by anchoring I mean SP 2-4.

    b. Eagerly awaiting the integration of the top 400 for all picks!!!

    c. My wife and her best friend (born on the same day, IN THE SAME HOSPITAL) traveled to that Island vitality I told you about for the weekend. So it’s my son, me and my laptop for the weekend! Muah-haha-haha! Let the games begin.

    d. Have a nice weekend.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante GALIC: C. Daddy/Son weekends are a thing of bad Billy Crystal movies and memories, hopefully not in that order!

      • Ante GALIC says:
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        @Grey: Grey!

        All good, male bonding. We watch movies like this…(http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1229360/) together.
        We’ll study Spanish and I’ll teach him the guitar in peace. Also, I get some me time which is always good.

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          If you teach him Stairway to Heaven, you play it once, he plays it once and it’s time for lunch

          • Vegans says:
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            @Grey: of course, you’d have to teach him ‘taurus’ by spirit too.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Well yeah!

  5. Malicous Phenom says:
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    Fister matters!

  6. the swinging says:
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    U normally don’t recco stashing injured players for months especially comming off major surgery so I was surprised to see the darvish ranking and write up. If you only had 1 DL spot would you still consider darvish where you ranked him?

    • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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      @the swinging: he advocated saunders last year way higher than his ADP ranking. it’s about how much the cost is. darvish might very well cost more than this ranking above, saunders definitely didn’t. what is interesting is that right now darvish’s ADP of about 120 and the 34th SP off the board.

    • Fungazi says:
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      @the swinging: I’m passing on Darvish because these guys always seem to get their starting date pushed back forever and then before you know it they are being skipped in the rotation or shut down to avoid too many IP after coming back.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @the swinging: Sure, how many people do you need to stash on the DL?

      • danny almonte says:
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        @Grey:

        Man i agree. I guess if the price was right, go for Yu but the whole shituation looks like a headache i rather avoid

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Remember you said that in June

      • the swinging says:
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        @Grey: I usually have to end up making tough roster decisions even with multiple dl spots. Injuries happen a ton obv.

        All I can remeber was last year you really burying recovering pitchers like Harvey and Jose in your rankings. And the topic came up a lot about stashing injured players with no certainties and you always seemed to play it very cautious in most cases not wanting any piece of them.

        I may be way off but I don’t think you had Darvish ranked much lower last winter even before the injury (Darvish preseason 2015 was mid 20s for SPs? I don’t remeber).

        Anyways, I’m just surprised at the Darvish ranking as I said earlier, doest seem like someone Grey would target. You are Grey, right?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I ranked Harvey last year higher than I have Darvish this year

          • the swinging says:
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            @Grey: I mean yea, harvey entered the season healthy enough to pitch in april, Darvish hopefully will be healthy by June.

            Seems like an aggressive ranking for Darvish and not in line with how you roll.

            You prob will land him a bunch (every draft) if u take Darvish where u have him ranked.

            • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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              @the swinging: he’s 3 spots SP-wise higher than ADP data so far.

  7. Mrs.Featherbottom says:
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    “No Matt Garza?” – JB

  8. Soria Wong says:
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    Grey! Been loving the offseason write-ups! Used Razzball tactics to crush my league last year, first time ever in a league I’ve been in for 10+ years! Hope this is the start of a dynasty! Whittled my keepers down and wondering about the last few… 11 team roto auction $300, 6×6 usual plus OPS and holds. Looking for the best 10 of 12 here, all thoughts appreciated! Thanks!

    JoFer $15
    Stressbird $25
    Thor $10
    Altuve $22
    Dee G $15
    Polanco $15
    Blackmon $23
    LoCain $17
    JUp $30
    Lindor $10
    Franco $10
    Xander $15

    • Cram It says:
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      @Soria Wong: I’d lose Lindor and one of those speed OF’s, maybe Cain. Way too much speed.

      • Soria Wong says:
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        @Cram It: Yeah I won steals by a laughable margin, could have used more power. Took 3 out of the five hitting categories (expanding to 6 this year) , middle of the pack in HR and RBI.

  9. Jet says:
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    Great work as always. I can only keep 5, who should I throw back? I’m guessing Gray based on your rankings.

    Carrasco – Rd 22
    Salazar – Rd 18
    Sonny Gray – Rd 11
    Bogaerts – Rd 10
    Springer – Rd 8
    Archer – Rd 6

    • James says:
      (link)

      @Jet:

      Gray and Archer are the guys who are solid buys in those rounds but not a steal… Carrasco, Salazar Bogearts and Springer all come off the board 5-15 rounds earlier, I see archer going about that point (maybe the 4-5 range) and Gray being a good #2 in most eyes so about the 8-10 range. So I think it is your call. I would keep Archer in the 6th since all of your keepers are in such late rounds.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Jet: Gray

  10. Niceguybilly says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey!
    Great read as always.
    In a keeper would you give up Grienke and Cargo for JD Mart?
    Who would you replace the last keeper slot with? Beltre, Belt, Papi, Peraza or Calhoun? Already keeping Goldy, Bryant, Rendon, and (gulp) Desmond.

    Thanks!

  11. Manny4president says:
    (link)

    Wow, just wow. Baseball season officially starts with the Grey rankings. It’s an exciting time of the year and pitchers and catcher s are reporting in the next few weeks!

    Anyways, I’ll make this as short as possible..16 team, H2H, points league where we keep two pitchers, two batters, one rookie eligible player, and two minors. Cost the round they were drafted in forever.

    I have Sonny Gray who’s free and then can choose between a free Teheran or a 1st round Hamels. Not great (my batters are manny and springer and are free, though).

    I’ve got a trade offer from a guy who’s got a bunch of keeper pitchers. He’s offering me Darvish 21st round and Tyson Ross, 7th round cost for Gray straight up. I’ve been on the fence about it, and waiting for your rankings to help sway me one way or the other. There hasn’t been a lot of news surround Yu’s elbow lately and tyson Ross’ walks scare me. But both provide much more K’s than Gray and I think we see Darvish among the top 5 or so SP’s next year at this time.

    So, thanks for your help and for the awesome job on your rankings. I’m pulling the trigger and happy baseball season everyone!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Manny4president: Hey, my favorite Libertarian! Those are not good choices…Teheran

  12. TheTinDoor says:
    (link)

    Really down on Lester – in the last two seasons (i.e. with the Cubs):
    2014: 219 IP, 16W, 9.0 K/9, 2.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.10 xFIP
    2015: 205 IP, 11W, 9.1 K/9, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 3.06 xFIP

    At 32 yrs old and with that offense, where are the red flags indicating a drop-off to 3.5 ERA?

    • CMUTimmah says:
      (link)

      @TheTinDoor: That offense doesn’t help his ERA…

      • TheTinDoor says:
        (link)

        @CMUTimmah: Thanks for the help. I meant it as a counter to him getting only 11 wins last year. Not likely to repeat.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @TheTinDoor: I have him in a tier I’d draft

  13. Matt says:
    (link)

    So I need trade advice, oh wise Grey. Auction keeper format, but contracts have limited length and players get more costly as time goes by. We are transitioning to an auction this season, so players under contract under the old system cost $10 each out of a $260 budget (don’t have to continue keeping them if you don’t want to) and contracts escalate from there.

    With that out of the way, here’s the deets:

    I get: Thor (could be kept for $10, contract escalates from there), Corey Seager (could be kept for $10, contract escalates from there) and Freddie Freeman (would have him at $10 this season, but then he has to go back in the draft pool)

    He gets: Kershaw (could be kept for $10, contract escalates from there) and Goldschmidt (would have him at $10 this season, but he has to go back in the draft pool after that)

    So basically, I give up 2 known studs, one who I only get for this season, and I get 2 great young players who I could have long term. Basically, how much should I love Thor and Seager?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Matt: Not good

    • Moscowitz says:
      (link)

      @Matt: Its funny how you try to sugarcoat that miserable trade to somehow make it look good and benefitable. Forget it pal, you only give up Kershaw and Goldschmidt, when you get Harper and Trout in return. There is close to no other benefitable situation for someone trying to dump those two studs.

  14. Clint says:
    (link)

    Do you have any reservations on Cueto/Pineda due to their elbow issues down the stretch last season? I’ve been tuned in to some good back & forth by the CBS guys lately as to whether both of their 2015 issues were Darvish-like harbingers of Tommy John or not. While I know it’s unpredictable (Ventura had something similar a year or so back I believe) I also see you’re still worried about Tanaka so what’s up, sensei?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Clint: I have a bit on both, but unless one of them comes out and says they have a torn tendon like Tanaka, then I’m hoping for the best

  15. Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
    (link)

    I want every pitcher from Martinez to McCullers. Church!

    I miss my Far Side daily calendar.

  16. Nick says:
    (link)

    Welcome Back Great Grey

    starting to set up my keeper team “Cortisone Brothers”
    10 teams Y! 14keepers – 25players (20+5bench) +1 NA spot

    hitters are set:
    1B Goldy – 2B Alty – 3B Sano – OF Bautista Springer KDavis – Util Encarnacion + Carpenter
    still need to decide if i keep Desmond SS or Perez C,,,
    but i’d lean toward Baez at SS later in the draft if he gets the job
    what about K”Powaaa”Davis as a keeper OF?

    but let’s talk about pitchers:
    here would be my starting combo
    SP1 Archer #14
    SP2 Salazar #16
    SP3 TJWalk #27 (future top 20)
    RP1 KJ
    RP2 Allen

    if no Desmond or Perez : others Batters are: Myers, Fowler, Baez
    Pitchers: Quintana AWood Shields Happ, and youngsters Heaney Berrios ,
    or RP Tolleson, AJRamos, Grilli

    do you agree ? who would be the last ?

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @Nick: Desmond

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Nick: Hey man, good to see you! Baez is not getting the job… I’d go Desmond

  17. Moscowitz says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,

    12 teams, (W, SV, ERA, K, WHIP)

    I want to add Carson Smith , Kela or maybe someone like Romo or Cecil for ratios. Its important in this kind of format.
    Drop 2 out of this group: Nola, Smyly, Hudson, Leake

    My other Pitchers are: Carrasco, McHugh, Fiers, Rodon, Matz, Ramos, W.Smill, D.Hernandez

    Thanks

  18. Big Al says:
    (link)

    Morning Grey! This is one of my favorite posts of all the year. I feel like I need to get 5 starters out of the top 40, because I know one or two of them are going to break-out, and I can’t miss if I take 5! Unfortch in my 14-team H2H weekly league with 9 pitcher slots, starters go fast, and I’ll probably have to settle for one or two of these guys. With that and one guy from the top 20, I’m sure I’ll be good. Gotta admit, I’ve been contemplating breaking code and taking 2 from the top 20. I think I’ll stay strong, but I might end up taking somebody like Jo-Fer or Strressburg in the 4th instead of waiting til the 6th like usual . Any-the-who!

    How much would you raise Darvish in a somewhat deeper weekly-set H2H league? I feel like I could stick him in Matz’s tier, but that seems kinda high, and I’m pretty confident I will be able to wait on him anyway, namsayin’?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Big Al: Ha, I wouldn’t raise Darvish

  19. Wild Thing says:
    (link)

    Love the rankings! Which side do you prefer?

    Taijuan Walker $21 for 3 more years, Steven Matz $1 for this year and can be signed for $5/year annually after that… so maybe $16 for 3 years 2017-2019 and Javier Baez $21 for 3 years

    Or

    Lance McCullers $1 and Stroman $1 each for this year and then can be signed similar to Matz

    I have plenty of cap space so I think this comes down to do you like Walker/Matz better than McCullers and Stroman over the next 3-4 years and then I’m getting Baez for free. Maybe he figures himself out enough to justify $21 a year next year?

  20. Rob says:
    (link)

    Last keeper – 10 team, OBP league:
    Trevor Rosenthal for 11 (2016 only)
    Brad Boxberger for 7 (2016 , 2017)
    Mike Moustakas for 1 (2016 only)

    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
      (link)

      @Rob: Id go with Moose but depends on needs as well.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Rob: Agree with F

  21. Fungazi says:
    (link)

    I can name the next tier of players ‘Names’ tier: Tanaka, Gray, Zimmerman, Shields, Lackey. Boom shakalaka!

  22. Michael Robinson says:
    (link)

    Taking over a keeper league for the first time; can keep 3 offense and 2 pitchers, but can’t keep anyone drafted the previous year in the first 3 rounds.

    If there’s no good SP from last year’s staff, would you ever keep two outstanding RPs? Example: Wade Davis and Aroldis? I believe these guys would be slotted into the 7th & 8th position.

  23. Larry David says:
    (link)

    Grey I’m frightened by Cueto. I have little faith.

    I just took over a team in a 12 tm H2H cats league, 10×10 (TB and OPS for hitters, QS and K/9 for pitchers). All the regular positions plus MI.

    8 keepers per team and I have Stanton, Machado, Cespedes, McCutchen, AGon, Cole, Kluber, Cueto. Not too shabby!

    I’ve got an offer of Altuve and a 1st for Stanton and a 3rd, which isn’t so bad, but my goal is to get rid of Cueto and possibly sell high on Cespedes instead.

    I don’t reeeeally want to trade Stanton, but I wish he would play a full season already. If I do a Stanton/Cueto for Marte OR Springer and Sale, does that make more sense for me? Or should I just hold on to the big man??

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Larry David: There’s plenty of other starters, then lose him..Springer/Sale is a solid trade

  24. Sh says:
    (link)

    Thoughts on having players from the same team
    Jd Martinez, Justin upton
    Marte, piolanco
    Machado, davis

    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
      (link)

      @Sh: Non issue

    • danny almonte says:
      (link)

      @Sh:

      In h2h, sometimes can be bad. 2 guys isnt a big deal, maybe with 4 id get nervous. Even still, its unlikely to be a factor.
      Theres always that possibility youre in the h2h playoffs and your pirates go up against the Mets aces and your guys get owned. Or days off. Small chance, but it’s there

  25. jorge says:
    (link)

    *** scans top 20 for Stroman***scans top 40 for Stroman***

    WAT?

    • Shill Team 6 says:
      (link)

      @jorge: Why? What is Stroman?

  26. JeF WiTh 1 F says:
    (link)

    Great stuff as always boo

      • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Your catching some heat for Stroman today lol…Yesterday was Ross….looking forward to Monday already…Like Cram i am still waiting on the First base coach rankings

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ruben Amaro will be a steal!

          • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Shhhh keep that quiet

          • The great Knoche says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Davey Lopes, the steals guru!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              SAGNOF!

  27. Funny Name says:
    (link)

    You’re spot on with Iglesias. Too many sleeper posts already. Rodon too, but not so much on Walker. Mccullers is going to be a solid value like Salazar last yr after it was announced he wasnt going to start in the rotation. I grabbed him late in one league and off waivers in another. A lot of owners aren’t patient at the beginning of the season and don’t looK long term.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Exactly

  28. Luke T says:
    (link)

    Does your rule of not owing top dog-ish starters apply to weekly roto leagues with only 4 SP slots? If not, how high would you draft your top 2 starting pitchers? Auction league, how much are you willing to spend on top 4 pitchers individually? Thanks a ton!

    • Luke T says:
      (link)

      @Luke T: Forgot to mention its a quality starts league.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      In a 10 team league, there’s a ton of waiver wire starters…In a 20 team league, not so much

      • Luke T says:
        (link)

        @Grey: it is a 10 team league. Possibly 12.

  29. Friedman for Freeman says:
    (link)

    You prjocet Ozuna to hit 254 with 22 ding-a-lings (as if you were not aware) – what do you see his obp and slg doing?

  30. Dan says:
    (link)

    Would you trade Salazar and Conforto for Bogaerts and Polanco in a keeper league? I already have Castro and Kang as SS options. Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You already have a SS

  31. Old School Brother says:
    (link)

    Totes agree on Matz/Rodon/Walker

    Also, I wonder if Dr. James Andrews had to settle for a Nissan skyline rice burner instead of a Rolls after he performed surgery on Yu. Yu know Yu only pays strait Yen homie!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yu said to Doc Andrews, “I bet you that if the Royals win the World Series, this surgery is free.”

  32. Teddy Heater says:
    (link)

    BFF!

    1. Damn those bakers on GBCO are crazy good! That’s some next level shizz, kinda like your SP rankings!

    2. I likey likey, I kinda feel like I cheated because I knew who you vibing with through your sleeper posts, Podcasts and comment answers. I know Buchholz prolly isn’t even on the top 60, but he looked so good in the second half and I’m hoping he can give us that 2014 1st half. Like you said in your Podcast he really only needs to pitch 5-6 ing to get a W with the revamp BP, so I give him a few extra kudos for the W’s.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      1. Ha, what season are you watching? 2. I like Buchholz, he’ll be along shortly, agree that the 2nd half was nice

      • Teddy Heater says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        1. We started on season 1 (2010), some of those peeps have gnarly grills, but once you can get over that distraction, it’s solid! They’re getting into some really technical recipes, which is cool cause we both like to learn new techniques.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Nice! Season one is actually the only season I haven’t watched (there’s been six)… Seasons definitely get better as it goes along

          • Teddy Heater says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Sweet!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              You sweet!

  33. J-FOH says:
    (link)

    You are killing me with that Corbin ranking! Not that I disagree one bit, he hits a lot of criteria, but dammit, I want him cheaper on draft day. The other day I posted my top three from that writers mock, I’ll post the whole staff below

    Thor -6th
    K-Zar – 7th
    Lance Romance – 9th
    Corbin – 13th
    Kyle Hendicks – 19th
    Jaime Garcia – 20th ( I know you hate his injury prone ass)
    Erasmo – 22nd
    Adam Conley – 29th

    and BTW, happy friday, you need to try my new vape device…..its amaze balls

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’m ready for a new vape device… I like that staff apart from Garcia, and I don’t hate him, he’s just whatever

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Grey: he was my ride him til he dies pick.

        Me need to have a lunch and vape shop day before AZ….it will be faaaaaaabulous

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I’m headed to ramen today, cause I can!

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Grey: why you showing off, you hurt my heart and my stomach with that….try the ramen burger and let me know

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              It’s wonderful!

              • J-FOH says:
                (link)

                @Grey: why do I torture myself

          • Vegans says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Have you been to Orochon?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Nah, been to all other downtown ramen places

              • Vegans says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Just wondering… my wife is Japanese so we eat ramen regularly.

                • J-FOH says:
                  (link)

                  @Vegans: Vegans gets sushi at home!

                  • Vegans says:
                    (link)

                    @J-FOH: Toro sounds delicious! But so does ramen. Good thing I can eat both tonight and tomorrow, Grey & Mr. FOH

                    • J-FOH says:
                      (link)

                      @Vegans: do you rememeber the movie they call me bruce?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Yes, great film!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I can eat both too, Mr. Vegans

                    • Vegans says:
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                      @Vegans: Awesome, Grey! I think I’m going to get my sho chu on tonight. Thanks for the great idea!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Have you been to Tatsu?

                    • Vegans says:
                      (link)

                      @Vegans: Maybe I can get my wife to engage in some ninja/cos play too, Mr. FOH

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Cosplaying, what?!

                  • Vegans says:
                    (link)

                    @Vegans: @J-FOH: Vaguely… I just remember it being funnier than I thought it would be & it had some great one-liners? Why?

                    • J-FOH says:
                      (link)

                      @Vegans: the susie/sushi scene always plays in my head every time I go out for sushi

                  • Vegans says:
                    (link)

                    @J-FOH: No but it looks delicious. We did just go to Tsujita Annex about two months ago with friends. We’ll definitely try Tatsu next time we’re up there. Thank you for the heads up.

    • Beware the Shit Rope says:
      (link)

      @J-FOH: how does garcia go in the 20th after his last season?! he’s a boring K rate guy, but his GB rate keeps him a likely mid-low 3 ERA one.

  34. DBo says:
    (link)

    Dynasty league: I was offered Posey for Carlos Martinez, Y Grandal & 2018 2nd round pick. Posey side or C Martinez side? Thanks!

    • J-FOH says:
      (link)

      @DBo: in dyno, bats carry a lot more weight than arms because of the injury duration from TJ and the fact there are so many amazing arms coming up. Posey will eventually be at 1st base, but in my opinion he looks like the kind of bat that can age well. I would take Posey all day there.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d take Posey

  35. Mike B says:
    (link)

    Ok so I know your general stance on hitting vs pitching, but I want to give some context before gaining your approval on a deal and asking advice on another; my 10 team league keeps 10 and rosters 30, players kept by draft round decreasing by 1 each season. 16 of your top 20 kept and 13 of 21-40.
    I just traded Harvey and a 5th round pick(equates to about round 12 in redraft) for Betts. Both kept in 15th round. QS and OBP league in place of BA and W.
    Approve?
    I own Kluber in 11th and have an offer out forSyndergaard (22nd round) in which I would be receiving additional draft pick compensation. Thor owner acknowledged it was solid offer, but is hesitant because theyre a Mets fan. Based on your top 20 ranking, I take it you would advise going as far as moving the additional picks to other side of deal?

    • J-FOH says:
      (link)

      @Mike B: Id want Thor in a keeper even if it means giving up a little pick action….and I love the Betts for Harvey deal, well done

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, I’d send picks too

  36. The Dude says:
    (link)

    By predicting Pineda for only 130 IP this year you’re kind of assuming that he’s going to have an injury, or spend time on the DL. Or am I missing something and he’s on a very strict pitch limit?

    • J-FOH says:
      (link)

      @The Dude: the probability of him missing time is like the probability that I’ll eat bacon once a week

      • The Dude says:
        (link)

        @J-FOH: Just bacon or bacon with a vape chaser?

        • J-FOH says:
          (link)

          @The Dude: chocolate covered bacon vape flavors

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I projected for 150 IP

  37. Josh says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey, how many roster slots would you add to a 12 team league to make the move from a SV league to a SVHD league?

    ESPN default is 9 pitchers, and usually close to 30 RPs are owned in the standard format (the closer from each team – so thats about 2.5RP slots).

    Would 11 pitching slots be ok? (Maybe designate as 4SP, 4RP, 3P)… or would you go up to 12 for a 5th RP? (that would be 60 total RP [5×12] owned)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Why are you adding slots? Isn’t the strategy trying to figure out how you use your slots)

      • Josh says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Hmm good question. I guess my thinking is I wanted the position to still be a bit competitive. I feel like if i kept it at the default roster size, no one would draft a reliever until the very end of the draft, and there would still be some quality relievers on the waiver wire. I’d like good+elite closer and middle relievers to be owned. And the bad closers+middle relievers to not be owned (Shoutout to Fernando Rodney). But there’s a lot of good-ish middle relievers that would get missed out in a standard league size I think.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          There’s gonna be good relievers on waivers anyway because now closers won’t matter as much

    • robbyrobdu says:
      (link)

      @Josh:
      You are adding more categories, so you should definitely add a couple slots to accomodate, just as your gut tells you.

      The goal is depth of knowledge and to get the value of setup men up.

      This does not diminish the value of closers at all, this just makes people speculate more on young fireballers, setup men, etc…

      Funny thing is it doesn’t add a ton of percieved vakue to closers, which is perfect for the savvy managers, which is what any league should want…

      Personally I would probably add about 3 slots, but the 2 you prosposed is fine.

  38. birrrdy! says:
    (link)

    Yikes, the major Matz love just messed with my keeper decisions, Oh Grey(t) One! But you’ve also thrown a lot of unexpected love Yasmany Tomas’s way. Decisions… decisions…

    10 Team, NL only, 5×5 auction keeper. $300 budget and we can keep 8 based on mag prices each year. 1 C/1B/2B/SS/3B, 5 OF, 3 U, 10 P. Elite players a premium given unlimited years to keep.

    My top keepers: Votto-1B ($27); Braun-OF ($25); Heyward-OF ($21); CarGo-OF ($17); Harvey-SP ($26); Strasburg-SP ($26); Syndegard-SP ($22)

    My tough decisions for that 8th slot: Tomas-3B/OF ($12); Matz-SP ($13).

    The bargains I will probably pass on: Cain-SP ($1); Ray-SP ($6); Ruf-OF ($1); Pham-OF ($1); Morrow-SP ($1); Grandal-C ($3). Thoughts?? (other than I have two guys on my team named Yasmany?)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Go Matz

      • birrrdy! says:
        (link)

        @Grey: thanks! No concerns with 4 of my 8 keepers being pitchers and 3 of them Mets?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Gotta go with the best players, right?

          • birrrdy! says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Yup! I think I should try to trade for Familia while I’m at it and really double-down on this Mets pitching staff. Thanks again for the helpful advice!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Better than having the Rockies staff

  39. Oz says:
    (link)

    I need to pick up another SP. What do you think about trading Carlos Gomez for Salazar in a dynasty league?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      It’s fair

  40. Wild Thing says:
    (link)

    Okay so say I accidentally hit accept to the walker, matz, baez side of this deal…

    Taijuan Walker $21 for 3 more years, Steven Matz $1 for this year and can be signed for $5/year annually after that… so maybe $16 for 3 years 2017-2019 and Javier Baez $21 for 3 years

    Or

    Lance McCullers $1 and Stroman $1 each for this year and then can be signed similar to Matz

    Questions:

    A) How much more do you prefer the mccullers side? Like what was I smoking or meh I could see that going either way?

    B) Should I flip Walker, Matz and Baez for Syndergaard $1 this year and $5/year after that?

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d want Noah

      • Wild Thing says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Ugh the deal is that bad you aren’t even commenting on how bad it is… Okay let’s if I can make miracles happen and get Noah

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I said earlier I wanted the other side

          • Wild Thing says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            Oh yeah… sorry was asking the second time about how close you thought it was? Like close or not at all close?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Close

              • Wild Thing says:
                (link)

                @Grey: thanks!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  No problem

  41. The great Knoche says:
    (link)

    Really? I am impressed you folded that receipt more than 7 times….that’s amazing!

    Like Cueto before Ross (had to get my Ross chime-in)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Myth busters showed it can be done

      • The great Knoche says:
        (link)

        @Grey: was that the airplane hanger thing?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yup!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha, only that’s unintentional

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Grey: *checks razzball authors page* Nope, Carrie Muskat has never written for us but maybe he/she can

  42. Pager24 says:
    (link)

    Pretty interesting how many guys in the top 40 are projected at 180 IP or less. I would assume that’s a product of streaming right? I guess elite stats are still elite no matter the innings count? This kind of analysis and bold rankings, combined with Rudy’s ridiculous stats knowledge, is why this is by far the best fantasy baseball site on Al Gore’s internet!

    Keep up the great work!

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @Pager24: These aren’t streamers. Low IP projections due to possible real life IP limit because of their youth. Or coming off of injury.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! It’s just a factor that not that many SPs actually get 200 IP

  43. Jj says:
    (link)

    Hey grey,
    Ok so just a reminder on my situation
    12 team H2H 5×5 keeper league. We keep 10. Standard yahoo scoring.
    Was looking to try and get Bautista for dozier and Salazar. He said no. But he said that he would do HOSMER and SALAZAR for BAUTISTA.
    My keepers right now look like
    ARENADO, C.SEAGER, M.SANO, POLLOCK, BUMGARNER, J.FERNANDEZ, COLE
    My last 3 were likely to be some combination of HOSMER, A.CHAPMAN, D.SALAZAR, B.DOZIER,,B.BUXTON.

    Would you pull the trigger on that deal?
    Thanks again

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sure, take it…it’s more than fair

      • Jj says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        What if I could land C.DAVIS for the same offer. Would that be a better deal? He’s only 30 I think.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, he’s solid, you know my rankings and thoughts on him

  44. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    in 30 man league now with this offense set for now
    c-d’arnaud
    CI beltre
    CI smoak
    MI segura
    MI alcides
    OF a-jax (no team yet, how can MIL or LAA not sign him though with cunningham/nava or captain kirk manning starting slots)
    OF rosario
    OF altherr
    util l.martin
    along with pitchers (davies just lost a spot with c.anderson coming around) i’ll have 28.2 million for 8 roster spots during bidding.
    If i don’t get any CI starters, like howard/colabello/sandoval (probably costs more than value)/laroche . will probably bid fairly high on howard just from homer need.

    1. which 4 of these would be best targets (looking for some upside in my backup/platooning CI along with smoak)
    dietrich/pearce/mini donkey/wallace/flaherty/blanks/k.johnson/uribe. i attempted to rank them correctly already.
    2. Rank for these actual SP r.hill/ERV santana/hellickson/b.anderson/c.anderson/colby/roark (just top 3)
    3. rank for these possibly later SP petit/conley/mccarthy (mid season)/warren/morrow

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Dietrich, Mini Donkey, Pearce, Johnson 2. I’ll rank them soon 3. Same

      • goodfold2 says:
        (link)

        @Grey: cool, my first session bidding (all FA broken up into 4 groups, each group you have a week to bid on them) includes 3 of them, i’ll assume order is hellickson/petit and a toss up between conley/mccarthy for the 3rd spot in the first group that ends by 7 eastern. Shandler’s book likes Petit/Warren most skillswise, but no starting jobs. sucks about 4 sessions since if you want guys in later sessions (b.anderson maybe) you got weigh that against guys in current session.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, but they don’t have a clear cut path to IP

          • goodfold2 says:
            (link)

            @Grey: right, why i have to rank hellickson higher. i didn’t mention the utter trash SP who do have innings that i could get later (feldman/locke/bettis/garza etc). It seems best to get some guys with jobs (hellickson) and 1 at least with skills (for cheaper) and hope they get jobs.

            • goodfold2 says:
              (link)

              @goodfold2: by far best homer guy out there is ortiz, if i get him for just under 10 mil (1 year obviously) i can maybe trade a-jax for j.nelson (2 year .4 mil deal) to a guy badly in need of OF and steals once a-jax signs of course. Ortiz only counts as Util and will stay that way.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Projected IP is sometimes more valuable than skills

              • goodfold2 says:
                (link)

                @Grey: yeah i’d probably have to go garza over say warren or something. hard line to determine.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  As said, better to get IP over skills sometimes

                  • goodfold2 says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: first group is thin on decent starters, went hellickson/petit/mcarthy/conley (conley much cheaper, appears to start year in minors). most of the shitty, but innings guaranteed types are in later 3 sessions.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Gotcha

                    • goodfold2 says:
                      (link)

                      @goodfold2: got howard for only .3 more than 2nd place bid, so did that smart. Ortiz somehow was bid to near double what he was bid to last year (17 now, 9 last year). i overspent by about 3 mil each on hellickson and petit. yikes that 6 mil could’ve been better used, esp from petit. hernandez for under 3 million, that’s nice.

  45. thorbs says:
    (link)

    Awesome as always!

    Darvish-related dynasty Q — have the following deals on the table and want to do one, Darvish just seems a bit risky in my head and Goldy seems like too high a price to pay (I have great bats, lots of 1B/OF but meh pitching):

    1. My Goldy/Yelich or Goldy/Odor for Betts/Darvish/pick
    2. My Hamels/Swihart for Price
    3. My Votto for Archer/Castro/pick or Archer/Lindor

    I like #2, personally

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      2 sounds fine

  46. GhostTownSteve says:
    (link)

    Sonny might be one of those guys who outpitches his FiP every year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Not feeling that

      • GhostTownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        He has for 3 years in a row. Matt Cain-ish

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, and the Ks are dropping

          • GhostTownSteve says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            Which theoretically makes it a little easier to beat his fip because it’s going to go up with diminished Ks. Situational pitching a lot. You could be right. He just has that feel of a guy who will beat the odds.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              He is durable, I’ll give him that

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              And for that ballpark, he knows how to pitch…For fantasy though? I’m kinda bleh on him

              • GhostTownSteve says:
                (link)

                @Grey:

                I do think he’s going too high.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Yup, agreed

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      This is my new favorite!

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
        (link)

        @Grey: He actually just had a daughter, I’m pretty sure with his history that’s the first sign of the appoclypse.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          He’s gonna get back everything he gave in triplicate with his daughter

  47. Brian says:
    (link)

    16 team dynasty league 6×6. Uses ops and k/BB as extra cats plus QS instead of wins. Coming off a championship and looking to upgrade a C and add a CL. Lineup is wilson ramos, hosmer, kipnis, correa, beltre, stanton, marte, cruz, sano, ortiz with xander, dickerson, Brantley Josh harrison, avisail on bench. My SPS are price, j-fer, degrom, salazar, gray, liriano, teheran, gausman, j garcia, karns, peavy, clay, rich hill. CL are paps, perkins, melancon. Notable minors are margot, mateo, alex reyes, plus flotsam depth with John lamb and eickhoff.

    Been offered schwarber and hector rondon for sano and alex reyes. Would you do that deal? You more or less likely to do it if gausman is swapped with reyes? Going back and forth on it cause I don’t know how safe rondon is at CL for more than this year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hold

      • Brian says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Thanks grey! What about moving gausman for mazara to beef up my minors roster? Rhink i Have the sp depth to move a SP, even in dynasty.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Nope

  48. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
    (link)

    in that dynasty 20 teamer where i’m TEX i thought it was lock to grab mazara at 6th overall. but my lineup is RF heavy and speed needy (less power needy). better off with brinson here? or maybe drop tapia and draft both?
    C none yet
    1B fielder
    2B forsythe (trying to trade for odor with yes many)
    3B beltre
    SS andrus
    LF upton
    CF hicks
    RF stanton
    util franco or choo
    BN franco or choo
    BN yesmany tomas
    NA t.anderson/tapia/gallo/profar
    i have to assume of course that at least one of gallo/profar starts year in MLB. have urias in other NA slot. I’m seeing Brinson/Mazara’s hit tools are similar with Brinson having speed edge and Mazara power edge.

    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
      (link)

      @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: 2.also, with that lineup would you more want to trade for delino or odor? I have a good offer for delino of players i’m willing to move, and odor owner doesn’t appear to be in baseball mode yet (i.e. not responding to emails that might not indicate lack of interest in deal). I was trying to get odor for cheaper than franco, and can get delino for cheaper. Could also get delino first and later get odor for franco (which is what i’m doing if odor owner doesn’t contact me back)

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        I prefer Odor

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Tapia

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
        (link)

        @Grey: brinson or mazara for that team first?
        damn keeper date got moved up to end of sunday rather than mid-march, so i could deal for delino using a player i don’t want to keep anyway (which would allow me to drop hicks i suppose) along with yes…many before that, and risk having to use franco to get odor. But if i don’t get delino i have to stick with hicks (an MLB backup). If the Odor owner goes for Yesmany i could probably grab melvin upton or the CLE processed food heir CF (almonte) till Hicks starts.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Mazara

  49. cullenstfu says:
    (link)

    Thoughts on not drafting starter in the top 20?

    League is R/RBI/OPS/HR/SB – QS/ERA/Ks/Whip/Saves

    • cullenstfu says:
      (link)

      @cullenstfu:

      H2h 12 teamer, let me know what you think Grey!

      • Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
        (link)

        @cullenstfu: these rankings are for 12 teamers exactly. he mentions in ross blurb you should grab first starter from ross-lester tier if you didn’t have one before. Just for H2H you’ll need more total than in roto, but the back end of them can be weaker (usually it’s best to have more middle ranked guys though, esp if your first is from 20th-24th overall, like you’ll seem to be)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      It’s fine to pass one if you like…No real need to pass one though, it’s not like there’s gonna be great hitters for every pick in the top 100

  50. Fausto

    The HAND OF SAGNOF says:
    (link)

    Thank you for ranking ALL those guys above Zimmerman…I can now die peacefully… digging the gluttony tier good to see you hIgh on matz, I’m a believer. …. just testing the new avatar brought back the Sag-hand

    • Fausto

      The HAND OF SAGNOF says:
      (link)

      @The HAND OF SAGNOF: in techni-black and white too

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Great avatar, SAGNOF Hand!

  51. Ryan Sturm says:
    (link)

    Keeping one of tanaka, cmart, Ventura…advise

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      C-Mart, tough call

  52. Chris Biesanz says:
    (link)

    I’ve got Goldy and Edwin and Edwin will have to take up my only DH spot. It’s a salary based dynasty league and I have an offer for Edwin for Two of the following who are all keepable for 6 years and really good salaries: Luis Severino, Jake Odorizi and Blake Snell (who won’t take up a roster spot since we are allowed to keep 10 minors). No one else seems to be offering that much for Encarnacion because he is old and only can be kept for the next two seasons at a fair value. I could clear some cap space for our auction if I made one of these deals. Should I accept one ? Which two if you were me? I’m leaning towards Snell and Odorizzi because of upside. What would you do? Could Severino be an ace? Or Odorizzi?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Not a good deal

  53. Trenchtown says:
    (link)

    LOVE that Razzball is back, but then again you never left right?

    Wondering what ‘pert Grey and others think about this option…

    2 keeper league (kept in round you drafted them)

    Rizzo (rd 5 again) or Jose Fernandez (rd9) to pair with

    Macho Macho Machado Man (rd 10 – keeping him thanks to SS eligibility and because he’s macho)

    love having the bats, but feel like this will also be the lowest i’ll get an ace like jose …till the marlins hurt his arm again. Thoughts? I’ll hang up and wait for your answer. Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d want Rizzo…

      • Trenchtown says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Thanks for the re-assurance of plans to keep H to the Rizzo!

        Looking forward to reading your work all season long again Grey. Love the witty humor mixed with the useful stat info.

        Cheers!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Thanks!

  54. Crash says:
    (link)

    My Arenado
    For
    AJ Reed and Starling Marte

    I could use he Of help and im high on Reed. I have Machado, Bryant and Seager who can fill in at 3b.
    12 team keeper league.

    • Crash says:
      (link)

      @Crash: and that’s Corey Seager

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Arenado side

  55. DBo says:
    (link)

    Dynasty league, was offered Chris Davis for Urias & Myers. Davis side or Urias/Myers? Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Davis

  56. Corey says:
    (link)

    Just curious what criteria you used to rank Price over Bumgarner? Looks like Madi has the better numbers overall, save for 9 fewer Ks and 5 fewer innings pitched. Plus Bumgarner has the whole NL thing going for him.

    I’m in a H2H league and can’t decide who I’d rather pursue. As a Sox fan, I like Price. As a responsible fantasy GM, I like owning NL pitchers.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You shouldn’t draft either

      • Corey says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Auction keeper league. I have $30 to spend on an ace. They usually go for around that price every year.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Okay

          • Corey says:
            (link)

            @Grey: So, I was wondering how you decided that Price is one rank higher than Bumgarner.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Because I’m worried about Bumgarner moreso than Price

              • Corey says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Thanks!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  No problem

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha

  57. Joe says:
    (link)

    Been going back and forth in my head on this one..callin on your expertise oh grey one..

    5×5 auction league with contracts..George Springer is being dangled in my face and my love for him has grown by reading your posts…

    SO

    Would you trade Severino ($0 minor league value), Lindnor ($0 minor league value) and Justin Upton ($21 value/last year on his contract) FOR Springer ($0 minor league value) and Matz ($0 minor league value)

    Dont really have a replacement SS (Kang is my MI) but have the #2 minor league draft pick coming up so figure i can get a Travis Story hopefully…and then a fill in until he plays

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, I’d take Springer and Matz

  58. Paul says:
    (link)

    Keeper League – keep 2 based on where you drafted them and kept them the whole season (including trades)

    3. Arenado – Thank you (my no brainer)
    4. Marte
    10. Archer
    11. Pollock

    Trying to convince the league to include pick ups and in that case it would be Correa – in like the 8th, but absent of that. What value would you take with Arenado?

    Read more: https://razzball.com/top-20-starters-for-2016-fantasy-baseball/#ixzz3zRmbOHOnKeeper League – keep 2 based on where you drafted them and kept them the whole season (including trades)

    3. Arenado – Thank you (my no brainer – I think)
    4. Marte
    10. Archer
    11. Pollock

    Trying to convince the league to include pick ups and in that case it would be Correa.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Pollock

      • Paul says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Thanks – 3rd year following – I click ads

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  59. Moscowitz says:
    (link)

    A or B?
    A: Sale, Bogaerts, L.Cain
    B: Carrasco, Machado, Plouffe

    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      B

      • Moscowitz says:
        (link)

        @Grey: wow, didnt expect this one. Would you mind telling me why? I mean i understand you love Machado, i do too but Sale is still a significant upgrade over Carrasco, Machado is a big upgrade over Bogaerts but Lorenzo Cain is a major upgrade over Plouffe. Am i missing something?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Cain and Plouffe are the only big differences

          • Moscowitz says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Ok, wouldnt that alone make A be the better side?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Nope

  60. Kendrick Llama says:
    (link)

    Grey! Glad to have you back!

    Need help picking 8 keepers, budget of $327. Goldy arenado keuchel and Cole are obvious. Who else do you keep?

    WeDemBirds88

    Nolan Arenado $6
    Xander Bogarets $11
    R. Braun $53
    M.conforto $1
    C Dickerson $6
    Paul Goldy $45
    C. Granderson $1
    Carlos Gomez $32
    D.ortiz $30
    B.phillips $1
    Polanco $1
    M.Sano $1
    D Arnaud $1
    Cole $11
    Fiers $6
    Giles $1
    Dallas Keuchel $1
    Lackey $1
    McHugh $6
    Stroman $6

    Thanks as always!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sano, Dickerson, Conforto, Polanco

  61. FrankGrimes says:
    (link)

    you’re so money you prolly
    dont even watch the super bowl…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Is it on today? *twirls hair with finger*

      • FrankGrimes says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        haha
        why every time I try to
        close the ad on the left it opens!
        is this on purpose?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, to mess with you

          • FrankGrimes says:
            (link)

            @Grey:
            maybe my iPad is hella old and slow
            but it’s not cooperating well with razzball these days

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              So, you’re saying you need a new iPad like the new computer you got last year from Razzball?

              • FrankGrimes says:
                (link)

                @Grey:

                Ha! First world problems!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Apparently

  62. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
    (link)

    with Odor owner less than gung ho about yesmany (worried he might not count towards 3B by 2017, albeit this is yahoo so probably gonna happen anyway) and Delino owner starting to shop for SP and might’ve gone elsewhere and left me keeping Hicks as starter and D.Holland as 6th SP (probably better off streaming on that one, i found Fiers and R.Iglesias last year doing that, Quintana and Liriano and Hammel previous year doing same thing, even in this 20 teamer) and keepers due tonight i traded D.Holland/Heaney/Yesmany/3rd rounder/4th rounder for Delino/Sal Perez in two deals, now with
    C Salvy
    1B Fielder
    2B forsythe
    3B beltre
    SS andrus
    LF upton
    CF delino
    RF stanton
    util franco or choo
    BN franco or choo
    BN hicks
    NA tim anderson/gallo/profar
    SP darvish/liriano/hammel/quintana/fiers
    RP giles/k-rob/tolleson/kela
    NA urias

    should i even keep hicks at all or gamble i could grab another good prospect with pick 26 overall? other than brinson/mazara/devers (these just added recently) yahoo actually added some of the new guys already (bregman/rodgers), plus others that i could use at positions i’m weak at for depth (reed/contreras) along with guys who were already there and have moved up (kepler/mcmahon) and pitchers out there. i have pick 6 open already, hicks would be 24th keeper making my draft over after pick 6.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d want Hicks

  63. Moscowitz says:
    (link)

    Fiers, Nola, Smyly. Drop one

    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Fiers

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Surprised they were able to block out that many tickets at Petco…Oh, wait…

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Grey: HA! the first run was 1000 tickets that sold out in three and a half hours then they got another 400 more that sold out in less than a day.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Padres haven’t sold that many tickets since the club did a buy one get one free on boxed Chardonnay…

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Grey: we better be careful, I dont want to upset Royce!

  64. J-FOH says:
    (link)

    You going to any super bowl parties? I would assume all your football conversations would get segwayed into a Marino conversation

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Not this year, just watching Netflix at home…

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        I mean, the game…yeah…

  65. Biggie Smalls says:
    (link)

    Keep forever. R/HR/RBI/SB/K/AVG/OBP/SLG

    Which side wins Posey and Iron Giant

    Or

    The Cubano Piggy (yasiel puig), AJ Pollock, and Miguel Sano

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Don’t know who the Giant is

      • Beware the Shit Rope says:
        (link)

        @Grey: it’s an MLB/wrestling mixed league.

      • Biggie Smalls says:
        (link)

        Giancarlo Stanton

    • J-FOH says:
      (link)

      @Biggie Smalls: who is the iron giant?

      • Beware the Shit Rope says:
        (link)

        @J-FOH: i don’t keep up with wrestling anymore either.

      • Biggie Smalls says:
        (link)

        Giancarlo Stanton and John Cena’s test tube baby.

  66. Beware the Shit Rope says:
    (link)

    12 teamer H2H with huge benches. have to save 29 pre NA draft (and tapia/a.reyes/r.stephenson all don’t have NA tags in yahoo yet), list is due 20th. BB/OPS/holds/QS added.
    C mesoraco/beef wellington
    1B E5
    2B Pedroia
    3B Franco
    SS Marte
    LF upton
    CF cain sugar
    RF soler
    util 1 of k.davis/calhoun/polanco
    BN harrison
    got 9 SP (very good ones got to be my strongest pitching league)- arrieta/carrasco/kluber/richards/iglesias/carmart/cashner/hendricks/bauer
    RP (5 slots) perkins/f-rod/osuna/strop/siegrist
    NA list (comish holds these as separate list, max 5) t.anderson/b.zimmer
    currently tapia/stephenson/a.reyes all count as part of 29 (unless they get NA tags before Feb 20th, not likely). Lost 4 SP to demotions (heston/duffey/conley/elias) so far.
    1. best off keeping which 2 of these: k.hendricks (or bauer) as 9th SP, mesoraco as 2nd catcher, or strop as last RP?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Two catcher league?

      • Beware the Shit Rope says:
        (link)

        @Grey: no, opps, should’ve mentioned.

        • Beware the Shit Rope says:
          (link)

          @Beware the Shit Rope: with seemingly too many RF guys (soler/polanco/harrison/calhoun) i trade blocked calhoun to get a player of equal value at any of these positions: CF/SS/SP/1B depth. got an offer of delino for calhoun. for dynasty that about right.

          • Beware the Shit Rope says:
            (link)

            @Beware the Shit Rope:3. or should i try to get inciarte for calhoun?

  67. Mike says:
    (link)

    Trying to decide on 4th Keeper in my 10 team auction league. My keepers so far are Arenado, Bryant and Stanton. We have an $8 fee for the 4th keeper. I have both Darvish and Severino that would cost $9, either way. I also have Dee Gordon but with a $19 price tag after thee fee I think I should stick with a pitcher and try to get him again through auction.

    Who should be number 4?

  68. Joe says:
    (link)

    Love every article and all your rankings, my buddy and I crack up reading your ranks. You bring a sense of humor and knowledge that you really can’t find anywhere else. Keep doing your thing, you’re the man! KYEA

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks!

Comments are closed.