I’m gonna give this sleeper post for Carlos Rodon in the simplest of manners like I’m trying to explain it to a Kardashian. Â In August, the 22-year-old RodonÂ pitched in his third full month of major league starts and recorded a 2.48 ERA. Â In his 4th month of his rookie year, he had a 2.03 ERA. Â In those two months, he had 59 1/3 IP with a 2.28 ERA. Â Let’s call that 60 IP for ease of basic math, because if there’s one thing that basic math should be is basic. Â It should also be math, but we’re getting off the subject. Â Streamline, Grey, streamline! Â Rodon will throw 180 IP next year, barring injury, that’s 60 innings times three. Â Show of hands for those that are lost? Â Okay, just blink, guy from The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Â August and September is two months (this is more basic than computer science class in 1988) and the season is six months long, thus August and September times three equals a season. Â If Rodon’s August and September times three equals a season, then he won’t just be a breakout, he will be a top thirtyÂ starter divided by ten for all of baseball. Â To tag onto that August/September math, there has to be some consideration given that he’s only 22 and must’ve been tiring towards the end. Â So, if he was tired in August/September, he could be even better this April-July, right? Â So, if you times April-July, even though thatÂ looks like you’re subtractingÂ July from April, you have the best pitcher in baseball. Â Okay, my basic math wentÂ WillyÂ wonkyÂ there. Â Anyway, what can we expect from Carlos Rodon for 2016 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

What led Rodon to post spectacular numbers in August/September? Â In those two months combined, he had a 3.59 BB/9. Â Like a sign on a brothel reads, therein lies the rub. Â Rodon must control his pitches, specifically his fastball. Â His slider is no problem. Â His slider is *puts fingers to mouth, makes kissing sound, my dog runs over to lick my ears* Â “No, Ted, I was saying ‘muah’ to the beauty of Rodon’s slider, not that I wanted you to clean my ears; it’s not Saturday yet.” Â In the 2nd half of 2015, Rodon threw his slider 30.8% of the time. Â Know why? Â Cause snitches can’t hit it. Â His slider is off the charts, if said charts are the recording of the bestÂ sliders but the chartÂ leaves the top five off. Â ForÂ Slider Runs Above Average, he had the 12th best success in the majors for pitchers with at least 120 IP, and he was the youngest of those top 12 by about five years. Â The top 12 is a who’s who of pitchers thatÂ hitters don’t want to face when it’s a slider count: Â Liriano, Archer, Greinke, Keuchel, Scherzer, Bumgarner, Kershaw, yadda cubed. Â Now, Rodon had an impressive slider all year — every year actually — so what changed in August and September? Â His fastball also started to work. Â Up until August, Rodon’s fastball, while averaging 94 MPH, was a negative for value. Â Then, in the final two months, it was a positive, a top 15 pitch in September. Â In the month when he was supposed to be slowing, he was unhittable. Â So, his slider is unhittable, but his fastball command is where all his success is going to come from. Â Again, a fastball that is 94 MPH, so it’s not like he’s working with inferior stuff. Â There’s layers to this shizz, player — tiramisu, tiramisu. Â If Rodon’s fastball is there from the jump this season, he’s going to be challenging the top five starters in baseball, seriously. Â For 2016, I’ll give him the projections of 13-8/3.52/1.31/182 in 180 IP with lots of upside from there. Â As for whether he will be a sleeper, depends on how many of your leaguemates are sleeping.

## 142 Responses (Jump straight to the comment form)

1. How'd you know says:

Grey,

Which side do you prefer

D Gordon
For
Franco, McCullers, and Odor

Thanks

• Lance B says:

Franco, McCullers, and Odor. Upside, upside, and more upside.

• Eli Man Penguin Boy says:

@How’d you know: of course, except if you are already pretty set at 3B and have deep starters but are weak in steals, then gordon. in every other instance clearly this isn’t close.

• CMUTimmah says:

@Grey: JUMP ON THAT DEAL IF YOU LOSE DEE. If this is a keeper, you can Sagnof Dee’s production elsewhere. All three of those guys represent high upside talent. Especially Franco/McCullers.

2. CAZ says:

Trade Julio Urias for Brendan Rogers?

• Malicious Phenom says:

@CAZ: no

• Grey says:

@CAZ: Nope

• Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:

@CAZ: many less years showing he has it in minors for rodgers. urias simply IS top 3 prospect pitcher, not just projected to be.

3. Charles says:

Rodonculous!

4. jvanslyke says:

Kylie was lost once you got into slider ratio talk but Khloe was able to keep up. Speaking of the Kardashians, at all excited for Swish or has the Kanye ship sailed for you?

I’m looking at a Rodon / Mcullers / Martinez rotation. Very curious where you advise first taking a pitcher

• Grey says:

@jvanslyke: Nah, he hasn’t sailed… Usually does very listenable music, which I’m good with… You don’t have a number one SP there

• jvanslyke says:

@Grey:

i know he lost a few with Yeezus but I really liked it.

I’ll wait for your rankings to figure out who my one will be. Last year I was confident that I could land carrasco and arrieta in my 10 team and did a round or two later than I had even planned.

• Grey says:

I just went to look at Yeezus’s tracks…Yeah, that wasn’t a good album even if critics always love him

• Grey says:

@jvanslyke: And in a 10 team league, I’d be less worried…In a 20 team league more so

• Ralph Lifshitz says:

@jvanslyke: Madlib did the beat for No More Parties In LA. I don’t love everything Kanye does, but a track with Kendrick on a Madlib beat is tough to ignore.

• jvanslyke says:

I’m really excited for that song, the snippet is really good. Just hoping he doesn’t include the singles released the past yr outside of real friends and no more parties

5. Justin Huyett says:

Figuring out my tenth keeper. Leaning toward Danny Salazar. Would you be more inclined to keep Buxton or SOler instead?

• Eli Man Penguin Boy says:

@Justin Huyett: since you already have 9 others might want to mention them for reference.

• Justin Huyett says:

Encarnacion
Miguel Cabrera
Bogaerts
Longoria
Trout
Betts
Cespedes
Polanco
Archer

Have first pick in draft. Not opposed to letting Longoria go, just no other third basemen out there.

• Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:

@Justin Huyett: i’d rather have one extra of the salazar/buxton/soler group than longo.

6. Clint says:

Party time’s almost here baby! I am on pins and needles waiting for the rankings, I am!

• Crapshoot Kershaw says:

@Clint: exactly a week.

• Grey says:

@Clint: Ha, one week until my birthday (and rankings)

7. Scott Kimmel says:

Grey

Would you make this trade:

I give up Moustakas and Severino
I get Longoria and j Upton

Longoria would back up Donaldson
Upton would be part of an outfield of Cain Trout marte and Conforto and maybe Choo

Thoughts

• Malicious Phenom says:

@Scott Kimmel: Upton side

• Scott Kimmel says:

he said no to Upton for Severino. Should I offer this package or is it too much: moose, Choo and Severino for Upton and Longoria

• Grey says:

Upton side

• Scott Kimmel says:

Grey

I don’t know who to offer for Upton and Longoria. This is my team:

C,1B Buster Posey (SF)
1B Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)
1B David Ortiz (BOS)
1B Joey Votto (CIN)
2B Jose Altuve (HOU)
3B Josh Donaldson (TOR)
3B Mike Moustakas (KC)
SS Carlos Correa (HOU)
OF Lorenzo Cain (KC)
OF Shin-soo Choo (TEX)
OF Michael Conforto (NYM)
OF Starling Marte (PIT)
OF Mike Trout (LAA)
SP Madison Bumgarner (SF)
SP Johnny Cueto (SF)
SP Jacob deGrom (NYM)
SP Matt Harvey (NYM)
SP Raisel Iglesias (CIN)
SP Max Scherzer (WAS)
SP Luis Severino (NYY)
SP Justin Verlander (DET)
SP Michael Wacha (STL)
RP Wade Davis (KC)
RP Greg Holland (KC)
RP Antonio Osuna (TOR)
RP Francisco Rodriguez (DET)
RP Joakim Soria (KC)
RP Drew Storen (TOR)
RP Shawn Tolleson (TEX)

MINOR LEAGUERS
1B/OF Max Kepler (CLE)
2B Jose Peraza (CIN)
SS J.P. Crawford (PHI)
OF Bubba Starling (KC)
OF Jesse Winker (CIN)
OF Bradley Zimmer (CLE)
LHP Kolby Allard (ATL)
LHP Sean Manaea (OAK)
LHP Blake Snell (TB)
RHP Aaron Blair (ATL)

• Grey says:

Why don’t you offer who you just said?

• Scott Kimmel says:

He doesn’t want choo

• Grey says:

Who does he want

• Scott Kimmel says:

He wanted to do Upton and Romo for Severino and Moustakas but didn’t need romo

• Scott Kimmel says:

this is the list of who he said is available:

Kendrys Morales (KC)
Mark Teixeira (NYY)
Evan Longoria (TB)
Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY)
Justin Upton ()
John Lackey (CHC)
Zachary Britton (BAL)
Santiago Castillo (SF)
Mark Melancon (PIT)
Sergio Romo (SF)
Tom Wilhelmsen (TEX)

• Scott Kimmel says:

Grey what should I offer

• Grey says:

What does he want?

8. El Boss says:

Grey, I need your help, I can’t find anything worth watching on tv. I just caught up on Mr. Robot, watched The Wire a while back and loved it, very sad when I was done with it. I like game of thrones, breaking bad, silicon valley. Do you have any suggestions to help me make it back to baseball season?

• Grey says:

@El Boss: You watch Making A Murderer yet? I watched The Shield this offseason which was excellent…Big commitment though and old, so you’ve might’ve seen it

• El Boss says:

@Grey: I haven’t seen either, so I will check them out. Thank you good sir!!

• Grey says:

No problem

• Whatever says:

@Grey: Into The Badlands is a good one

• Grey says:

Is that a Bob Dylan album?

9. Iron Sheik says:

Yeah or neahâ€¦Dynasty H2H points league.

Iâ€™d get
Jose Reyes SS | COL
Lance McCullers SP | HOU

Iâ€™d give upâ€¦
Yu Darvish SP | TEX
Eduardo Rodriguez SP | BOS

• Grey says:

Sounds fair, I’d hold

10. Mike Schwab says:

Hey Grey,
Heyward for King Felix? 8 Team H2H points based league and we keep 15 from last years roster. My OF is Harper, Cargo and Pollock. My SP’s are a little weak.
Thanks and looking forward to Monday with the rankings.

• Grey says:

Meh

• Mike Schwab says:

Would you prefer Thor over Felix for Heyward?

• Grey says:

Yup

11. J-FOH says:

An observations from the slooooooow mock I’m in. Pitching is soooooooooooo deep again. That is all

• Grey says:

Yupcha

• J-FOH says:

@Grey: you can’t yuptcha me, that’s my thing!

I saw reaches that made sense and many that didn’t. Rodon was one of the reaches I didn’t get. Same as Taijuan and Matz but then arms like McHugh and Garcia fell to great value slots

• Grey says:

You wouldn’t really want Garcia or McHugh…I hope you’re not drafting the NFBC team’s pitching with Magoo and gang

• J-FOH says:

@Grey: Magoo is the GM and designated drafter, and why wouldn’t you want a healthy Garcia if it fits your roster construction as a 5th starter. Great groundball rate and swstr%. Pitches in a great park with one of the best organizations for pitchers. All 4 of his pitches grades out above avergae. Should be around a 7 k rate with a 2 walk rate. If he stays healthy then you got a nice arm at a good price and if he gets hurt you dump him since you drafted him later anyway.

• Ralph Lifshitz says:

@J-FOH: Would you bet on him making 20 starts?

• J-FOH says:

@Ralph Lifshitz: I would hope for that. I think he falls into a good risk reward slot that can be an asset depending how you construct your staff.

• Grey says:

I’m not even going to discuss Garcia… He’s a waiver pitcher in 90% of leagues… Obviously if he’s healthy, he’s fine

• J-FOH says:

@Grey: in weekly FAAB leagues or leagues like NFBC where you hold 8-9 starters at all times that wouldn’t be the case….

• Grey says:

Word, just let Magoo draft

• J-FOH says:

@Grey: he actually wants me to do one and he likes a healthy Garcia

• Grey says:

Yeah the problem is he has ten years straight of injuries

• J-FOH says:

thats why he is a “if healthy arm” you get cheap

• Grey says:

He’s on NFBC’s ADP at 54… Doesn’t feel cheap

• J-FOH says:

that’s about right on where he would be ranked. In other leagues he will be lower

• Grey says:

Yeah, like undrafted

• CMUTimmah says:

@J-FOH: If you play fantasy concerned about a 5th starter’s health when he is currently healthy, then I would need a comparable guy at the time of the draft slot to consider. Although, I was burned on 6th round picking Arian Foster in every money league in football this year… and Tulo as a keeper in previous years… so maybe my strategy is garbage… haha

• J-FOH says:

Foster was healthy when you drafted this year? and don’t remind me of Tulo, I inherritied a dynasty team last month and he’s the starter

12. ScreechOwl says:

Last time I tried to explain something in a simple way to the Kardashians, I didn’t get anywhere. No matter how many times I shouted, “There are FOUR lights!” they just didn’t get it.

Rodon doesn’t get to be a sleeper for me because I own him in my dynasty league, and I remember how much fun it was to have him on my team for the last few months of last season. He has the FEEL of a really good future starter. I’m not basing that on anything other than a gut feeling, but my gut feelings are what gave the world chocolate and peanut butter mixed together (okay, was wasn’t the FIRST to do that, but I’m taking credit for something someone else did half a century ago), so I trust myself in this matter.

My gut feelings also brought the world peanut butter mixed in with peach-flavored yogurt, which is better than it sounds. Try it with strawberry, too.

• Grey says:

That peanut butter-peach doesn’t sound good at all, sorry

13. GhostTownSteve says:

I think I’ve watched part of all Rodon’s starts from last year. As you would expect, he is so dang raw. Had no idea where the fastball was going. The change is not ready. Be interesting to see how the league handles him. The book is going to be pretty straight forward. Swing at fastballs in the zone. Tough to execute, especially for lefties. Your projection makes him a very Pirates-era Liriano. Of all the guys with power arms on the verge, I’m think Gausman is the closest but his park stinks. Walker a little behind. I need to scout me some more McCullers. You and Magoo are gaga on him.

• J-FOH says:

@GhostTownSteve: McCullers is loved all over. I couldn’t help but take him as my 3rd starter in a mock .

• Grey says:

Mccullers is Carrasco for this year

• Eli Man Penguin Boy says:

@Grey: he could be carrasco for you relative to ADP, but in any league i was in if carrasco was yr 3rd starter last year (he was my 2nd drafted wherever i had him last year) you were drafting starters quite early. (3 before 100th overall)

14. boomer19 says:

I am going to jump on the Rodon train this year. On a separate note, who would you rather have in a 3 year keeper roto league? Springer or Marte? McCullers or Rodon?

Thanks!

• Grey says:

Springer…McCullers

15. Tigres says:

Grey! Looking fwd to rankings!

OBP league: Donaldson for Kluber, G Polanco & Allen/D-Rob. Which side in a vacuum? Thx.

• Grey says:

Donaldson side

16. Ralph Lifshitz says:

Have you seen Mozart In The Jungle or do you not funks with Amazon?

• Grey says:

I have, it’s not better than the shows it beat last night… It’s watchable

• J-FOH says:

@Grey: baby’s mama likes it but said I wouldn’t . She was surprised its listed as a comedy

• Grey says:

Yeah, there’s not a lot of guffaws

• J-FOH says:

@Grey: so it’s a hipster show…..I wonder if Royce watches it

• Grey says:

royce! came up recently in an email convo I had with the host of last year’s LABR (or is it Tout?) party

• J-FOH says:

@Grey: was it good or bad? I thought him and Eno were going to run off together and raise chincillas

• Grey says:

It wasn’t good

• J-FOH says:

really? what did he do? I was too lost in conversation with Tristan, making fun of carty, and deciding if I should bitch slap Lawr

• Grey says:

Meh, I don’t remember, wasn’t discussed… Just that the host was still not happy

• J-FOH says:

I thought Oaktown would of been the topic of discussion. Royce is a sneaky gangsta

• Grey says:

I think it was royce! but who we’re talking about calls you Jeff so I’m not sure

• GhostTownSteve says:

@J-FOH:

I doubt it was me, but who knows. Here’s all the interaction I had with the guy:

Me (on way out): Hey thanks.
Him: Who are you?
Me: Nobody…
Him: How’d you get in here?
Me: I’m actually on my way out. Thanks again.

• GhostTownSteve says:

@J-FOH:

If the conversation is about who drank all the good beer out of the bathtub then I am a very strong suspect.

• GhostTownSteve says:

@J-FOH:

More to the point, what kind of a guy is still butthurt over something that happened late night at a dork party a year ago? Did Royce sleep with his wife and or daughter and or dog?

• Grey says:

HA, totally

• J-FOH says:

Nice dork party reference. I think you were out on the patio at the time but some party crashers came in the room who got lost and the “dorks” all looked at me to ask them to leave. I get that I don’t fit the fantasy dork bill, but I was a little offended they would assume I was there to help them out. I thought my first job was to make sure no one beat up Grey and my second job was to make sure Sky didn’t get in trouble.

• Grey says:

3rd job, make sure Grey doesn’t get Sky in trouble

• GhostTownSteve says:

@J-FOH:

I kind of get it. I was on the patio. I’m the obvious choice to clean house Swayze style as necessary and since I wasn’t around they settled on a second choice in a moment of panic.

• J-FOH says:

Actually if rudy comes this year then I’m off duty….right?

• Grey says:

Nah, but then you’re doing light security

• J-FOH says:

Rudy and I can come up with a “containment Grey” protocol.

• Ralph Lifshitz says:

@Grey: Yeah I’m looking for the next binge. Have a few episodes left of Making a Murderer and Season 2 of Fargo isn’t up on Hulu yet. The Mrs’ and I watched Transparent already which was better than I thought it would be.

Truthfully I thought MIJ looked kind of lame, and Jason Schwartzman annoys so I was going to stay away, but then it won last night and beat a bunch of shows I watch. I might just say screw it and talk Mrs. Lifshitz into watching GOT. She’s continually turned down my suggestions to watch it. Some mumbo-jumbo about hating Knights

• Grey says:

Yeah, Transparent is a solid show, really captures LA… Cougs hates fantasy and I don’t really either, but GoT is so amazing it doesn’t matter

• Ralph Lifshitz says:

@Grey: Yeah I think I finally talked her into it. Sort of surprising she doesn’t watch considering all of my children were allegedly fathered by Tehol

The biggest discovery from Transparent is that I have a thing for Amy Landecker. A close second is that her and Melora Hardin hooking up wasn’t as hot as I thought it would be. Actually it wasn’t hot at all. I guess that means Melora Hardin is a great actress.

• Grey says:

HA! Tehol has more kids than the shah of Iran

Amy Landecker looked much better in the 1st season, I though, but anything compared to the girl with hairy pits is hot

• Ralph Lifshitz says:

@Ralph Lifshitz:Ha! Gabby Hoffman did not age well. We’re the same age so I think I can say that.

Yeah she did look better in the first season. She’s married to the bad guy from Billy Madison. Every time I think about him I just see his weasel face nuzzling the sweet bosom of my angel and it sends me into a murderous rage.

• Grey says:

Yeah, Gaby Hoffman — *shudders* Why does she need to get naked in every role she’s in over the last 3 years? Why?!

• Ralph Lifshitz says:

@Ralph Lifshitz: To remind people that she’s not the girl from Uncle Buck and Field of Dreams. When she tries to setup the Molly induced spit-roast in the first season I made a ton of chocking on a hot dog jokes.

• Grey says:

Ha, yeah, and she gets naked in the show Girls too, it’s awful

17. Baggiejohn says:

Any truth in the rumour* that you will be a contestant in the American version of The Great British Bake Off? I hear your strudel is a thing of great beauty …

Hmmm … wonder what they’re going to call the show ….

*this might only be a rumour because I just posted the question

• Grey says:

I made angel food cake this weekend, pure clouds of delicious…Mary Berry said it was scrummy.

18. CMUTimmah says:

Therein Lies The Rub – My favorite Brothel.

Rodon’s late season found control is intriguing. And it’s the fastball that seemed to have the biggest boost. When you can sneak an early strike with the fastball, players are more apt to swing at that dirty slider. I think he’s a 9K/9 guy for sure. The key for him his to be a 2.5+K/BB ratio to be 4th starter at worst for fantasy purposes. I’m nervous of a shutdown late in the year this season tho… hopefully they limit his starts early.

Getting Frazier protecting Abreu is huge. It’s going to be a huge boom for Abreu and for the runs for category. 13 wins in far from the ceiling for this kid. I think 15 is a very realistic expectation. Tough division, but the Tigers SPs are a ?, the twins SPs aren’t much to be fearful of. This guy should leave the game with a lead quite often.

• Grey says:

Agreed, it’s all going to come from the fastball, which he has, just needs to control

• Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:

@CMUTimmah: if he actually keeps to a 2.5 BB rate with his K rate he’ll be much better than a #4 fantasy starter.

19. The Lurve Guru says:

Good lawd is it time for baseball yet?

I’m in a \$300 auction keeper where we keep 8 guys per year, with a +\$5 inflation price per year with no limits on years you can keep a player. It’s a H2H Points league.

The most expensive guy from last year’s auction was Miggy and he went for around \$80 (just to give you one extreme and to provide some context for value. Available big bats are in the \$30-\$50 range and most big arms are about the same, maybe a bit less. Price was kept for \$52 for example)

Anyhoo,

Here are my finalists for 8 keepers and their 2016 Auction cost:

Votto \$32
Harper \$25
Rizzo \$21
Brantley \$17
Mookie \$11
Odorizzi \$12
Liriano \$12
Carrasco \$11
Salazar \$9
Correa \$6
Rodon \$6
Yelich \$6

For certain I’d keep Harper, Arenado, Rizzo, Mookie, Correa. Those guys are monsters. I’m probably keeping Brantley because he is a points league monster, but he is also coming off shoulder surgery. Votto was a top 10 scorer last year and is still a decent bargain at \$32 but that would leave me with one spot for a keeper and no pitchers so I’m probably leaning away from Votto.

If you could pick 2 additional guys from that list, who would it be? Thanks and sorry for the long post, but this is important, ya dig?

• The Lurve Guru says:

Also it’@The Lurve Guru: Also, for the record, it’s a 12 team league. Thanks

• Grey says:

Salazar, Rodon

• The Lurve Guru says:

@Grey: So Salazar and Rodon over Votto and one of those two?

• Grey says:

Doesn’t look like you need Votto and he’s no bargain there

• The Lurve Guru says:

@Grey: Nailed it

20. Scott Kimmel says:

Grey he asked for Moustakas and Severino for Upton and Romo but don’t need him. From the list he gave me who should I ask for with Upton

• Grey says:

Take Upton

21. Scott Kimmel says:

I want to, but looking for another piece from him who from that list should I ask for

• Grey says:

Who do you want?

• Scott Kimmel says:

I like longo as a backup but doubt he will do both Upton and longo for that package

• Grey says:

Try it

• Scott Kimmel says:

Waiting for a response

• Scott Kimmel says:

he said if I want Longoria I have to add someone

• Scott Kimmel says:

Grey

He just offered me Kendrys Morales along with Upton. Don’t need another 1b. I already have Posey,Papi, Votto and Encarnacion

22. Malicious Phenom says:

Thoughts on Homer Bailey for 2016..

• Grey says:

Bleh

23. Sange76 says:

Defending champ thank to all your guys’ help!
Which 2 put up the best numbers this upcoming year for a H2H points league? Looking to snag them @ the rd 5/6 turn in my keeper league…

Carpenter, Boegarts, Heyward. (Already keeping abreu, pollock and arietta on the squad)

Thanks!

24. MB says:

If you could trade Arrieta for Sale in keeper you would do it right?

25. herschel says:

@Grey: you check out “our vinyl weighs a ton” on netflix? pretty decent doc on stones throw records…

also, im sure this has been stated previously, but when are rankings coming? giggety…

• J-FOH says:

@herschel: There is a stones throw documentary? wait obviously there is. That’s funny since peanut butter wolf had a record called my vinyl weighs a ton. I need to check that out. Ive seen a lot of their artists perform. Did they talk about the “Now and Again” record label?

26. Scott Kimmel says:

Grey

Who should I offer to land Kyle Seager?

Moustakas
Choo
Severino
Raisel Iglesias

27. Scott Kimmel says:

Grey

He said no to all of them. Who should or could I offer on my team to get Seager

28. Evan says: