The answer: this pitcher has a swinging strike rate of 12.1% on the year, which is just .1% less than the likely chalk play of the night, Stephen Strasburg. Oh, oh I know, it’s Alex Wood! That is incorrect…the answer is ‘Who is Alex Wood?’ I’m sorry, but we cannot accept as your answer needs to be in the form of a question. Suck it, Trebek! That’s you and I playing Jeopardy together which is a WHOLE lot better than playing Lambs with me, I can assure you. Lets get this over by saying that Alex Wood being good is by no means a secret but on a slate like tonight when there are some massive lines in favor of some stud home pitchers, Alex has got me thinking he’s gonna bring the sexy for a little bit cheaper than the other massive arms on the slate. He’s by no means a bargain at 9.5 K, but him finishing the night with a better line than the three above him in price wouldn’t be much of a shock to my system. Alex is my cash game swerve off of the likely Stras vs Chris Archer debate and I’m obviously willing to roll with him in a few GPPs. But now that we’re done with that, let’s get down to this; here’s my returning champion worth negative $5,300 dollars taeks for this Friday FD slate…
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John Lackey, P: $8,500 – Likely a little overpriced for a tourney play but the Marlins have been a putrid bunch of late with the 4th worst wRC+ over the last seven and they were just held to a single run over 7 by Arrieta last night. A W with a QS for the Muppet seems imminent, hopefully the K’s follow.
Mike Foltynewicz, P: $7,700 – The Brewers away from Miller Park can be feast for some pitchers. Like Lackey, this is a tourney play that’s all about taking advantage of the Brewers away from Miller Park and their whiffing ways (third worst K rate in the MLB at 25.1% currently).
Josh Phegley, C: $2,100 – With Vogt finally gone, Phegley gets to finally be…well, Phegley…but he gets to do that against Mike Pelfrey! This is your catcher punt option for the night, my dudes and dudettes. If you wanna throw more clams at C spot, you can look Alex Avila’s way at $3K since Perdomo loves giving it up to lefties this year.
Logan Morrison, 1B: $3,600 – It’s a weird time to be a baseball fan, especially DFS. If you asked me in 2016 if LoMo would have 21 HRs in 2017, I’d have said ‘Sure, if we count his MiLB stats from his DL stint’. It gets even crazier when I look and see Justin Smoak and Miguel Cabrera are sitting there at $3,800 together ahead of Logan. Reality is, Ubaldo is muy malo, especially against lefties. Feel free to load up on Rays lefty bats today. I’m wanting me some Corey Dickerson as well as Mallex Smith today. Edwin Encarnacion is a fine play in cash today at $3,900, if you were wondering.
Daniel Murphy, 2B: $4,100 – Obvious stack is obvious. Look, I’m just putting it here so you don’t ask. Yes, Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Rod Carew, 2 Live Crew, and whoever else shows up in the Washington lineup is gonna be a go to place because of the O/U and the line on the game. So here’s me recognizing it while telling you I’m not hip to it today. We good now? Let’s carry on…
Erik Gonzalez, 2B: $2,000 – Ah yes, there’s my jam. If you’re looking for the min price with some pop at 2B, the Gz shall oblige. I like the Indians bats overall today. As previously mentioned previously, Encarnacion is in play but so is Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez.
Jake Lamb, 3B: $3,900 – All this left over bitcoin, whatever shall we do? Well, Rake Lamb is a great choice, IMHO. He has a 1.011 OPS at home vs righties and that’s just Jake in my book.
Logan Forsythe, 3B: $2,600 – If for some reason you’re still looking to go cheap at 3B, Forsythe will bat leadoff most likely. Sorry, that’s the only positive thing I have to say about this Logan. Look about five inches above for talks about a Logan in a good way.
Chris Owings, SS: $3,000 – Five of Owings’ eight HRs this year have come at home against a RHP and overall has a .924 OPS at Chase Field. Warm it up, Chris! But not too much; Phoenix is already pretty bad this time of year.
Yoenis Cespedes, OF: $3,700 – Cespedes hasn’t really gotten on track since coming back from the DL but that’s what Tyler Blach is for (sshh, don’t tell San Fran this; they think he’s actually pitching for them).
Gregor Blanco, OF: $2,900 – I didn’t list an Arizona stack and normally do when I mention this many players, but the reality is, I’ll be sprinkling them in as I see no need for a full on stack attack. Gregor is typically leading off, can steal and hit for a bit of pop. I’m drawing a Blanco a good pun to finish this with…
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s some potentially dicey weather on the slate today. First look, CLEvsMIN is looking ominous, especially knowing they’re divisional rivals and can reschedule or do a doubleheader easily. Thunderstorm issues don’t really subside in Cleveland until late. Other areas to be weary of are NYYvsTEX and ATLvsMIL. As usual, check in closer to lock.
Doing Lines In Vegas
First off, the giants of the slate. Strasburg (-265) and Archer (-200) will decidedly be the darlings of the slate but there’s also Patrick Corbin (-210) that we should recognize. The fact that the AZvsPHI game only has a 9 O/U could be a good sign that Corbin is an excellent GPP play today. My good Wood story rings true as Alex and his Dodgers sit at -200 in an 8 O/U tilt. Oh, 8 doesn’t sound that great to you? There are only three games on the slate that are below 9 O/U, meaning things are gonna get offensive today. SDvsDET leads the low end totals at 7.5, though it had an initial opening of 8.5. Not sure Vegas has reflected the move from Dinelson Limet to Luis Perdomo there. Keep tuned in to there, especially with the current line only slightly favoring Detroit at -130. If it starts to swing wildly the Tigers’ way, I’ll give Michael Fulmer a longer look.