In an incredible turn of events, I’ve done all the infield 2021 fantasy baseball rankings. Less incredible, you’ve read them. It’s like that time your favorite team won because they played better than that other team but you convinced yourself they won because you cheered louder. When I win the Fantasy Baseball Blogger of the Millennial in 2099, and my frozen head is accepting the award, I’m going to thank you, the readers, but I’m secretly going to be thanking myself. Without me, none of this would be possible. You’re a close second though! Okay, enough ranking of you and me, let’s rank some outfielders! Here’s Steamer’s 2021 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2021 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers.  All projections included here are mine, and where I see tiers starting and stopping are included. Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2021 fantasy baseball:

NOTE: All 2021 fantasy baseball projections are based on a 162-game season, and will be until we hear definitively there will be less games.

NOTE II: All my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.

NOTE III: Free agents outside the top 100 are not yet written up or projected. They are approximately ranked, obviously subject to change.

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. – Already went over him in the top 10 for 2021 fantasy baseball.

2. Juan Soto – Already went over him in the top 10 for 2021 fantasy baseball.

3. Mookie Betts – Already went over him in the top 10 for 2021 fantasy baseball.

4. Mike Trout – Already went over him in the top 10 for 2021 fantasy baseball.

5. Cody Bellinger – Already went over him in the top 10 for 2021 fantasy baseball.

6. Christian Yelich – Already went over him in the top 20 for 2021 fantasy baseball.

7. Bryce Harper – Already went over him in the top 20 for 2021 fantasy baseball.

8. Luis Robert – Already went over him in the top 20 for 2021 fantasy baseball.

9. Eloy Jimenez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Ozuna. I call this tier, “Drinkin’ my forty-oh.” This tier is two guys whose best case scenario is 40 homers and zero steals. What, you thought a forty-oh was something else? Who are you, Billy Dee Williams? I know Lando Calrissian, and you, sir, are no Lando Calrissian. You ain’t got no spice, and can’t make Tunisian without wanting everything harissian. I ain’t dissin’ ya! Sorry, felt a whiff of my rap alter ego, B. Fire, drawing dragon’s breath just below the surface. Unlike the top 20 shortstops and top 20 3rd basemen, I didn’t contemplate these guys for the top 20 overall. I like Eloy, and OZUNA, but their “old school corner outfielder” type production didn’t leave me conflicted about wanting them higher. As for Eloy, Steamer’s got some hot naughty love for him. Thinking he’s a 40/.289 guy, and I could see it, but — and sorry about the but, it goes everywhere I go — his lowered Launch Angle last year put his fly ball rate at 28.5%, which I guess is doable for a 40-homer guy, but would need some heavy lifting from his HR/FB. Not out of the question work, like Dirty Jobs with Mike Rowe — yo, I’m glad someone is cleaning out sewage, I can’t even look into the toilet when it’s backed up, so one love, but yikes. The assumption I’m assuming is Eloy’s fly ball rate will bounce back after 2020, but making an assumption while assuming makes an assump out of U and Ming the Merciless. Of course, he still hit 14 homers in 55 games last year, and has 45 homers in 177 career games, and the HardHit% is gorge, and, well, yeah, Eloy is really good, which is why I would draft him this high, but I’m slightly lower than Steamer on him. UPDATE: Out for the year. I wonder if CVS has condolence cards for fantasy teams. 2021 Projections: 89/36/107/.281 in 589 ABs

10. Marcell Ozuna – Still a free agent, but as NOTE III tells us, I’m projecting and writing up free agents in the top 100, so away we go… Though, remember, this is subject to change if he signs somewhere great or terrible. This is a neutral projection. Okay, it’s unlikely to change much. Marcell Ozuna stops, looks up, and takes a photo of himself in his new uniform with an imaginary camera. Then, he stops, looks up and takes a photo of himself in his old uniform. Then he looks at the two imaginary photos and it’s hard to see any differences in the two. Ah, there it is! The stop light in the background is different! These Spot the Difference bar games are so hard. Imaginary photos are the same because Ozuna hasn’t changed. OZUNA keeps true to self. OZUNA wondering where arm is. OZUNA put on green spandex sleeve and–oh, it’s a green screen for advertisements. There’s OZUNA arm. Photos are identical because Ozuna’s car’s in neutral on Luck Hill, and Ozuna’s a 35-homer, .275 hitter. Wheels of justice crank a bit in his favor, and Ozuna hits .300+, but can he go higher on homers? A question I ask myself, after me, a name I call myself. He hits the ball hard all the time. The direction of the ball has been mostly flat, right over the shortstop’s head, sometimes into the gap. Have you seen Ozuna take a swing? He wields mad bat, like The Joker. I love OZUNA, but I don’t know where that 12 steals in 2019 came from, or if we ever see them again. UPDATE: Signed with the Braves, which many believed would happen since there’s only five teams signing people and the Braves were the only ones needing an outfielder. At one point, it was announced the Rays were in the mix to sign Ozuna, and I was trying to figure out who leaked that report and why. There’s no way the Rays were actually interested, and, if you’re the Rays, you don’t leak it because it points out how unlikely you are. Would the Marlins leak it to take the heat off themselves? Are teams leaking other teams’ interest just so no one asks if they’re interested? Would the Mets or another team that is signing people leak it to drive up price on the Braves? Am I starting to sound like a Q Facebook post from your uncle? Who’s to say really. As for Ozuna, nothing’s changed from my above blurb. 2021 Projections: 94/34/109/.279/3 in 581 ABs

11. Kyle Lewis – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Castellanos. I call this tier, “Are you crazy or am I?” The old cliché goes that if you think you’re crazy, then there’s no way you’re crazy. Then I see how some people are drafting and think they’re crazy, but if I’m thinking they’re crazy does that make them not crazy or does it make me crazy because I don’t think I’m crazy? What if I think they’re crazy with their drafting but they also think they’re crazy, then they’re not crazy? Crazy, right? This whole tier is guys who somehow fell out of favor, are being underdrafted or people are crazy for not drafting them higher. But by me saying that, it might mean I’m crazy, but by me thinking I’m crazy I’m not crazy…Hmm… As for Lewis, what on earth is going on with projections? Kyle Tucker is 100% considered a lock for continuing what he did last year, and maybe more, but Lewis is going to collapse? Lewis has question marks but Randy Arozarena doesn’t because he had a good postseason? Fine, Arozarena has a better ball ball profile for a higher average, but Lewis is a borderline 70-grade power guy, who is just waiting to hit 35 homers with a dozen steals. What’s he waiting for? Me figuring out the puzzle to who is crazy and who is not? Seriously, though, you thinking I’m crazy makes me not crazy or do I have to think I’m not crazy to nullify my craziness? Fine, but how does Kyle Lewis steal five bags in a short season, then Steamer projects him for six steals in 2021? Who’s crazy here?! 2021 Projections: 82/31/94/.251/13 in 567 ABs

12. George Springer – Signed with the Jays, and finally the Jays get their big free agent. Everyone’s happy. Except people who wanted to watch Grichuk play center field. A loss of comedy with one misplaced fielder is a loss of comedy for all. That’s also what Avisail Garcia said when he saw the bed was floating two feet off the ground because Prince was trying to hide under it to catch him and his wife. Not so sneaky, Mr. Fielder! Any hoo! Springer averages 33/7/.270 every season across his career. Okay, maybe he falls off suddenly, but am I crazy to think he’s going to be just as good as always, or are the people expecting him to fall off the crazy ones? I don’t think I’m crazy, which means I am crazy, but I think those others are crazy, which means they aren’t crazy. Do you see my dilemma? Who is crazy here? Someone tell me! Then, if the Toronto Blue Jays are the Buffalo Bleu Cheese, can I shout a chef’s kiss off a high peak at how Springer could have a 40-homer season? 2021 Projections: 101/32/81/.272/5 in 524 ABs

13. Michael Conforto – His BABIP was obscene last year, but no one thought Conforto was hitting .320 every year. If he still does 32/7/.260 in the heart of a solid lineup, is that really different than Springer? Did we decide Springer was ranked correctly? No? Then I don’t know. I see the Kyle Tuckers and Arozarenas of the world being drafted way before Conforto and I see:  32/7/.260 vs. 25/17/.250 vs. 22/17/.285, and think kinda six of one, two half dozens of the others, and two half dozens is a dozen, which is greater than one sixpiece, but that sixpiece is one vs. two. Do you see how this is crazy making? But, seriously, if those lines are all kinda the same, which of those three is safest? The guy who’s done it for 4 seasons (prorated last year), the guy who’s done it for one half season or the guy who did it over two weeks in October? 2021 Projections: 83/32/97/.263/7 in 556 ABs

14. Charlie Blackmon – I can’t believe I’m the one pushing for people to draft Chazz Noir. This really is crazy. I’ve told you to forget Noir for a few years now, but when did everyone decide they were done with him? Due to a bad month of September? Because he was great in July/August. Yes, it’s crazy to take anything away from a month-plus of July/August, but isn’t it just as crazy to take anything from one month of September after he’s had a solid career and:  Coors! Or is my questioning here making all this not crazy? Or does that make it crazy? 2021 Projections: 104/28/81/.288/6 in 571 ABs

15. Nick Castellanos – Another guy I am shockingly the high man on after not being interested in him for many years. Honestly, if you don’t draft at least one guy from this tier, you’re just not following my rankings, so, ya know, why bother? The Greek God of Hard Contact has been doing hard contact in Greek since Plato was boinking heads in his cave with a rubber mallet like the first Whack-A-Mole ever. Castellanos’s 60-game season last year was highlighted when “I pride myself and think of myself as a man of faith, as there’s a drive into deep left field by Castellanos and that’ll be a home run. And so that’ll make it a 4-0 ballgame,” which is appropriate because the GGHC found himself a lot of power last year. It also found him striking out more, and tilting up on his Launch Angle. What’s cool is if he continues to be this newfound power guy — to which I say, “Why not?” — he could hit 35 homers and rediscover his plate discipline, making him a .290 hitter, too. 2021 Projections: 89/31/92/.277/3 in 594 ABs

16. Kyle Tucker – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 40 outfielders for 2021 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Miss Martian.” Until a martian wins Miss Universe, I will continue to question the legitimacy of the title. Until the guys in this tier do exactly what they just did, I will continue to question the legitimacy of them. Some of these guys I might draft. They’d have to fall from their ADP, and I might have to be drunk. I just have so many questions and am wondering if we’re overestimating a 60-game season. Like a poorly endowed man to a sex worker, “Do I really have to pay full price for a small sample?” As for Tucker, where do I start? Here, I guess. He did what we expected of him. Speed/power and won’t kill you on average. He might be the most interesting Astros hitter (though I’m kinda into Yordan). Tucker didn’t have the Cheaty Cheaty Bang Bang scandal hanging over his head and he impressed — 44% HardHit, 15 Launch Angle, 42% FB% — all pretty in-line with minor league numbers. Is he going to be 24/24/.265, 30/30/.280, 30/15/.255 or something in-between? Anyone who tells you they know is very dangerous, because no one knows and that ‘pert is full of themselves. You can like the gamble, but Tucker wouldn’t be the 1st player who struggled in his 2nd full-ish year and was given his walking papers to go get Dusty more toothpicks. 2021 Projections: 86/23/83/.248/17 in 541 ABs

17. Randy Arozarena – Already gave you my Randy Arozarena fantasy. It was written while asking a Richard if he prefers Dick. 2021 Projections: 73/22/78/.286/17 in 517 ABs

18. Whit Merrifield – Already went over him in my top 20 2nd basemen for 2021 fantasy baseball.

19. Starling Marte – Another name for this tier could’ve been, “Will he go 20/20 off a 2020 that no one saw even in 20/20 hindsight?” Miss Martian is more whimsical. Or Mr. Marteian in Starling’s case. “Do I hate the guys in this tier? Not really. Do I love them for their current ADP? Not especially either. If Marte falls far enough in a draft, I guess I could see drafting him. Marte is still hopefully one more year away from becoming Lorenzo/15/15/Cain. Big time emphasis on that ‘hopefully.’ Put some of those movie premiere lights on that ‘hopefully.’ And not just for Marte’s age leading to fewer steals, his fly ball rate was 27.9% last year. When you sort by worst fly ball rates, and you’re in the bottom 16, it’s not great, Bob.” Which is what I said last year. Sneaky me quoting me! Starling is exactly the same. I still don’t see the 20 homers possible for his 20/20 nor 20/21 in 2021. 2021 Projections: 85/16/69/.277/24 in 547 ABs

20. Trent Grisham – I’ve often repeated William Goldman’s quote, “No one knows anything,” which he said about Hollywood, but applies to baseball, and specifically baseball projections. Some are better than others. I think ours with Steamer are the best, but I’m paid to say that. I get three dollars a year and it’s paid in nickels. With that said, it is odd how Steamer projects just about everyone from this post (minus Conforto, Springer and Marte) for way more power than speed. Speed plays no matter what, power can go boom or bust super fast, so, while Steamer’s saying these guys you can trust for power, I say you’re better off trusting them for speed. Grisham’s a particular mystery, and I don’t mean the adaptions with McConaughey. All right, all right, all right, I loved Grisham last year, and still like him, but I worry people might’ve lost the brief with Grisham and think he’s the rainmaker about to put up a 30/30 season. Also, the hit tool? Hey, I’m fine with a goofy .230 average, but are you drafting him in the top 50 overall? UPDATE: Diagnosed with a slight hamstring strain. I should’ve wrote a schmohawk post for Grisham, right? Yeah, I know. Of course, I’m right. Grisham was being drafted around the same point as guys with 5+ year track records and locked into a cushy lineup. Grisham is so getting platooned. What are we doing here, guys and five girls? Have we lost our minds drafting Grisham around, say, Javier Baez? Javy Baez is actually going later than Grisham on ADP! Haha, so bizzonkers. Grisham has, like, five guys breathing down his neck for playing time, even if he’s healthy. Haven’t adjusted his projections yet, but I’m not drafting from this tier either. 2021 Projections: 83/22/72/.247/25 in 542 ABs

Continue to TOP 40 OUTFIELDERS FOR 2021 FANTASY BASEBALL

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Chucky
Chucky
1 year ago

Finally someone with the ballz they were born with. Kyle Lewis has been buried in the 30’s in every ranking I’ve seen thus far. AL’s ROY will improve with added exposure and experience and you’ll be the only one with a seat after the music has stopped.

scott
scott
1 year ago

Pianowski really laying into you. Where did this beef originate? Tough to tell if it’s just friendly trash talk or what

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
1 year ago

Hey Grey! Would you swap a $19 Snell or $13 Wheeler for any of [in order of preference]: $4 Kyle Lewis, $4 Randy A, $6 Muncy?

Weekly roto league, keep forever. Thanks!

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Thanks

herschel
herschel
1 year ago

@Grey: thank you! in a keeper league was debating between k-lew in the 23rd round and tucker in the 17th. early adp had me leaning tucker although my personal preference is k-lew. k-lew is the right choice, right? or am i crazy?

Josh
Josh
1 year ago

Dynasty league…… Would you send R laureano for K yates and M Keller?

He has also offered Rizzo for Laureano.

Let me know if you would keep or trade for one of those deals.

Josh
Josh
Reply to  Josh
1 year ago

@ Grey any advice would be helpful!

Smitty
1 year ago

Loved seeing Mookie swiping bags in LA. he’s got the green light!
So if you’re getting close to pick #90 and all of the OF’s above are gone (except Lewis) as well as Judge, Teoscar, and L. Gurriel and Charlie is still on the board? Thinkin Eddie VH would shout – JUMP! One of the better bargains at his price, his fire still burns in Co. Like Lewis a little later. Thanks brotha

Smitty
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Went with the vet – Charlie 112 / 32 / 86 / .314 in ’19

Coolwhip
1 year ago

Now the rankings are getting juicy.

Tucker – It blows my mind how early people are taking Kyle Tucker. And because of it, I probably won’t own him anywhere this season. A lot of these ‘pert drafts and mocks etc. he’s going mid-late 2nd and that’s bananas. We hadn’t even seen the floor with him yet, the short season last year he dodged the league adjustment so its getting pushed to this year. Yeah, he could impress and be the next big thing, but to bank on that in the 2nd with the Toothpick there? no thanks. First 3-4 rounds should be high confidence floors, and he is not that. I like him a lot as we banged the pans forever to “let the kid play”, ironic that it happened under the Toothpick (2020!), but like you said there’s other options there are more bankable for this season that early.

Grisham – Samesies. I like you loved him all last year, stan’d as hard as anyone. The OBP plate discipline is a lock. The speed is a lock. The raw power in his natural uppercut swing is a lock. But… as you and I both pointed out, the contact-rate and hit tool… ehhh not so much. He was fortunate to end the short season on a hot-hitting streak that boosted his average. I love him and everything, Stan Diego and so forth… but I’m with you, Top 50 is not where I want to be taking swing on a possible .240 hitter that likely won’t reach 30 HR (at least this year) unless there’s a step forward in his contact-rates. LouBob gives you a better upside in both power and speed if you are feeling froggy this early. Love him, just not at the price.

Coolwhip
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Yup. Same others that are drafting SP so early like they expect them to throw 300 IP… with everyone a tick down in innings the overvaluing of early pitching is even more overvalued!!! its like I’m watching the Big Short 2: Fantasy Baseball in real time.

Also, these same people that jumping in on Tucker/Grisham also seem to be less enthused with LouBob… WUT. It’s the same situation.

Will
Will
Reply to  Coolwhip
1 year ago

I’m out on both Grisham and Marte this year given where they’re going in drafts (pick 50-60 range). Don’t trust either of them.

Will
Will
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Marte is going #50, Grisham going #60, so far. Grisham was as high as #50 a month ago so he’s fallen a bit.

https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball

Hernan
Hernan
Reply to  Coolwhip
1 year ago

lol, Robert’s contact rates are the worst in Baseball, that simple, sure fast and strong , so are Tucker and Grisham with way better plate discipline…, Robert is Miguel Sano with speed and less power…., the same chances he has to “improve”, “adjust”, pitchers can adjust to him too, you can argue he also dodged the “league’s adjustment”…..

Will
Will
Reply to  Hernan
1 year ago

Sano hasn’t posted a contact rate above 60% in six MLB seasons. His contact rate in 2020 was 51.6% and his K rate was 43.9% – both the worst marks of his career.

Robert as a 22yr old rookie in 2020 posted a contact rate of 63.9% and a K rate of 32.4%.

I’ll take Robert.

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
1 year ago

Grey,

I have a chance to trade Javier Baez ($33) for Lindor ($46). My questions are these.

1) Would you make that deal?
2) Would you swallow the $13 difference know that next year Lindor goes to$ 51.

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

he yanked the deal off the table

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

yeah i know, not much i can do about it. He said we can re-exam it once the season gets under away

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

to me thats BS

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

he countered with this offer: LIndor ($46) for Baez ($33) and Voit ($27)

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Scott Kimmel
1 year ago

his lindor for my Baez and voit. I lose that deal?

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

I declined it

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
1 year ago

Hey Buddy, thought you short changed us today with only 20 OF’s when you did like 5000 2B lol Then I remembered you do OF’s 20 at a time. Love this list have a few on my dynasty team.

Soto
Haper
Springer
Lewis
Marte

matt
matt
1 year ago

offered Bichette at 8$ for Luzardo and Pearson both at 6$ 22 team 5&5 league…which side do you like

Gator
Gator
1 year ago

Semien heading to the Blue Jays has to help his value. Great park. Great lineup. One year contract. What are your projections now? Is he top 100?

Smitty
Reply to  Gator
1 year ago

Semien gets significant bump for me – just outside top 100

Carloots
Carloots
1 year ago

I’m glad to see Lewis and Randy ranked so high in your ranks. Glad someone else is thinking along the same lines that I am. I own both of these guys in both of my keeper leagues. (One is keep 20 and the other is keep 11) I am curious what you would do with my bubble in my keep 11 league (12 teams, 5×5, H2H) these are my keepers, with round value in parentheses:

Bellinger (5)
Ozzie (15)
Moncada (5)
Baez (5)
Arozorena (25)
Lewis (21)
Merrifield (17)
Soler (17)
Bieber (19)
Giolito (22)
Lamet (22)

this team lost in the semis last year and I have an interesting bubble. Here is my bubble:

Ian Anderson (25)
Dansby Swanson (25)
Julio Urias (19)
Miguel Sano (9)
Ian Happ (18)
Nick Anderson (22)

… I think I got my 11 right. But would you keep any of my bubble guys over anyone on my projected keeper list? Anderson and Swanson are my only real considerations at the moment.

Carloots
Carloots
Reply to  Carloots
1 year ago

also, Castellanos is an option but he’s round 1 and keeping a 1st rounder also costs a round 10 forfeit, so not looking to do all that.

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  Carloots
1 year ago

Would you be able to trade Lamet for picks and keep Anderson? There have been rumors over Lamet’s health issues, and the Padres aggression in the offseason SP market might be the strongest indication of that

Carloots
Carloots
Reply to  Big Magoo
1 year ago

I like your line of thinking. I think I’d prefer to be stubborn with Lamet than sell him off for picks though. He was just so good for me last year and I got him for peanuts before we announced our keepers. I may stick it out with him.

Molina Bros BBQ
Molina Bros BBQ
1 year ago

Hi Grey!

Doing my first Dynasty league this year. We are just beginning the start-up draft. It’s roto, OBP (no AVG).

My first 4 picks
1. Bellinger
2. Devers
3. Biggio
4. Grisham

Yes, yes, I know Biggio and Grisham are reaches in 3rd and 4th rnd… but hear me out. My thinking was… I missed out on speed guys in first couple rounds. It’s an OBP league. I was hoping to get some young(er) guys who could help me in the now and the later. Biggio and Grisham both are way more valuable in OBP than AVG and they are young, hit in great line ups that should be good at least for several years. Have some power and speed. blah blah blah.

In the 5th and 6th round I am debating what to do. Some older bats have fallen big time and starters are starting to dry up. Keep in mind OBP and dynasty. Could you maybe rank the top 3 of each list? I tried to rank them below.

Bats I’m considering:
Jose Abreu
Marcel Ozuna
Dansby Swanson
Castellanos
Goldy

SP I’m considering
Lamet
Lynn
Maeda
Ryu
Hendricks
Carrasco
Strasburg

Thanks Grey

Molina Bros BBQ
Molina Bros BBQ
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Thanks. Ended up with Abreu and Ryu. Maybe that helps undo some of the damage from my previous picks hah…

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
1 year ago

Grey,

Can you tell me where these players are going in redrafts in regards to pick not round?

Tatis
Lindor
Bogaerts
Javier Baez

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
1 year ago

Editor’s note.
I was checking on Semien update and noticed something. It looks like you may have moved him and when you did you took out Edman’s projections. Also, at the end of the Edman blurb you have a sentence about Semien you probably meant to take out since it makes no sense.
No biggie, just FYI.
Agree on the Miss Martian tier. All of them will be too costly based on 2 months.

pinkman
pinkman
1 year ago

Hey Grey- would you trade your 1st-round penalty Arenado keeper for 25th-round Tucker? 10-tm 5×5 keep forever

LaRockakis
LaRockakis
1 year ago

I don’t have a question. More of a comment, really.

BBhHI
BBhHI
1 year ago

Grey,

Quick question(s) about Franumal: I always see him projected for a league average (say .255 or even better) BA, an acknowledgement/projection of big power (30+ With potential for significantly better) and now an even better location in batting order, yet he is always ranked lower than I would expect. He seems to so clearly have the potential to break out with a near Giancarlo season. Thoughts?

Hernan
Hernan
1 year ago

I think Lewis is going to disappoint big time, his whiff rate is among the worst in baseball (16% SwStr) , sure , most teams don’t care about that , as long as the hard contact is there, which with Lewis is a meh 35%…, Average Exit Velocity also mediocre.. , actually, he would be my choice to lead the AL in striking out, as long as Sano doesn’t play a whole season and the Red Sox ain’t foolish enough to give Renfroe 500 PAs……, good luck drafting him…, in other news, no way Grisham’s BA is that low with the 25% Line Drive Rate, 42% Hard Contact, in top 4 percentile in Sprit Speed, SwStr% at 8%, he’s more like a .275/280 guy, all those will drag his counting numbers up, close to elite levels…, Cheers, Awesome Read as Always!!!, Burrito Boyz for Life!!!!!

Cram It
Cram It
1 year ago

Man, I don’t think I want anyone after Harper as my #1 OF.

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  Cram It
1 year ago

Agreed, though Springer could be a solid OF1 if you address other positions earlier, and Marte could hang on as a top guy for another year or two if he keeps running. And if you don’t agree, you can cram it up your cramhole. Or just draft a catcher early on.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Big Magoo
1 year ago

Magoo! True on Springer. I’d be content with him as my 1. Never cared for Marte, 20ish/20 with no counting stats. So I’ll cram it on him.

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  Cram It
1 year ago

Wouldn’t you like to see Marte in the Mets OF right about now though? Might not be so bad. Though someone in the MLBPA might need to be paid off to let Dom Smith DH…

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Big Magoo
1 year ago

Surely, that would be awesome as a Mets fan and the NL Dh actually happens.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Maybe I do! 90 starting outfielders, you’d think there’d be more solid options for HR/SB/avg combinations. Chances are probably slim anyway that I don’t end up with an OF1 that I want.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Possibly. I’m not sold on penciling them in for 35/.280.

Ha, I came across some headlines about GameStop stocks surging. Which sounded so ridiculous that I didn’t care to read any further.

Will
Will
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

It’s the Wallstreet Bets kids on reddit doing it. Absolutely insane.

Will
Will
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

That would indeed be “so Mets”. LOL.

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
1 year ago

How’s it going, GA? Just getting back into the baseball side of things. Glad to see that you’re already in mid-season form.

Soto looks like a young version of the old Bonds minus the roids, if that makes sense. He just has no weaknesses at the plate. Pitch recognition is superb. Power to all fields. .300+/40/15 for years to come. Safest pick for a top 10 ROI (with Betts and Trout), in my opinion. Might not take him over Acuna due to the speed factor, but I probably would over the rest of the field.

I was out on Yelich last year, but I’m back in now. Steals might start to tick down a bit, but the hitting skills are still there. Just got too passive last season (3rd lowest Swing% in MLB out of 414 players w/ 50+ PA) which put him in defensive mode. Still just 29 years old. Great park. Actually had the lowest O-Swing% of his career last year. Exit velo is still elite. Think he bounces back in a big way.

I loved Robert last year (took him in the 4th round of my DC), and still do like him, but he struggled in a big way once the league got a book on him. Might be a roller coaster ride this year.

I would’ve put this on your SS post if I had been around, but you know who I’m digging early on? Xander. I had him pegged as a .280/27/5 type of guy, but he ran more than I expected. 8/8 on the basepaths in 56 games, and 61/75 for his career. He’s proven to be more of a .300 hitter than a .280 one too. Great hitter’s park in Boston, obviously. If he decides/is allowed to run at that pace, he’d be a bargain anywhere outside of the top 20 overall.

Never thought I’d see you be a big Blackmon supporter. Maybe it’s just the social activist in you.

LaRockakis
LaRockakis
Reply to  Big Magoo
1 year ago

If his initials are GA, can we call him Georgia for short?

Jawjuh.

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Good to see you too man. Hope that we see a full year of baseball.

Young Bonds was definitely more dynamic than Soto, but I meant that Soto is like a young (hopefully clean) version of the PED Barry at the plate. Just no way to consistently get him out.

OTS always loved Xander. I’ve always liked him, but I’m writing his name on my trapper keeper now.

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

I haven’t heard from OTS recently, but I do miss our chats. I’ll try to reach out to him soon.

That’s a good comp and projection for Soto, though I think he’d outperform that in a full season. Just super special.

Any expert leagues or DCs recently?

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

As the years have gone on, I’ve looked at ADP less and less. Just at the end of my evaluation process to see how others are evaluating those same players. I feel like it gives me a small edge, but you could certainly make an argument for the other side too, haha.

Smitty
Reply to  Big Magoo
1 year ago

Exactly

Crime Dog
Crime Dog
1 year ago

Grey, thank you for all the continued great content.

I have to decide on players to keep for the next 3 years, 2 years and 1 year. My 3 year keeper is easy, Eloy. How would you pick my 2 and 1 year keepers?

Mike trout- kept from prior years
Cody bellinger- kept from prior years

Keep for 3 years- Eloy jimenez
Keep for 2 years- ???
Keep for 1 years- ???

Eligible to be kept for 2 and 1 year slots: Austin meadows, Keston hiura, Luke Voit, patrick corbin, Liam hendricks, ohtani (sp/dh- can be moved daily)

The toughest choice comes with who I want to lock into the 2 year slot through 2022. Ideally I’d want better options for the 2 year but this is what I got.

Crime Dog
Crime Dog
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

I don’t either! That’s Keston for 2 years right?

Crime Dog
Crime Dog
Reply to  Crime Dog
1 year ago

I did win last year though so whatever happens this year I’m fine with.

Plus I always dominate pitching thanks to your write ups.

Pine Tar Incident
Pine Tar Incident
1 year ago

Gray-

I am SHOCKED that you like Lewis that much, I feel like last year you thought he was kind of flukish. Stream-o-nator also hated him all season… been meaning to ask Rudy why that is. A little surprised that Happ isn’t here given your long love for him.

I’m assuming you’d then rate them Lewis (25) -> Arozerana (25) -> Happ (26) for keepers purposes as well?

*prayer circle for a full year* Thanks man.

Tom
Tom
Reply to  Pine Tar Incident
1 year ago

I agree the ranking is a bit surprising. Lewis stole a total of 10 bases in the minors so I don’t think the Steamer projections are out of line. I think with Lewis you’re probably looking at .258 24-75-7, not bad but not the 11th best outfielder.

Tom
Tom
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Actually he was one of your Dart Throws.

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
1 year ago

Grey!!!!

Beautiful! No other words needed!

a. Love the rankings but of course can’t wait for when y’all put it together for the top 500!

b. MLB quote of the day for January 27, 2021

1. Bob Borkowski, born January 26, 1926

‘In ’46, Bob made his pro baseball debut as a pitcher. He won 18 and lost 9 for Elizabethton and also played the outfield, batting .384 in 114 games. His hitting so impressed Cub officials that he was converted into an outfielder. Bob was brought up to the Cubs in ’50 after leading the Southern Association in Batting with a .376 average. He hit .273 in 85 games for the Cubs in 1950. In October, 1951, Bob was traded to the Reds by the Cubs.’

Topps Baseball, Inc. (1952 Topps Baseball Card #328, T.C.G., Baseball Almanac Collection)

2. Eric Wedge, born January 27, 1968

‘Well, simply put, Wedge is a man. He doesn’t just talk the talk. He walks the walk, even when it required him to swallow some job security and walk the walk right on out of here. The Mariners hired Wedge because they wanted a strong man who could take their out-of-control team from 2010 and meld it into something better. They wanted a man who could lead other men. In his final postgame media address after today’s 9-0 loss to Oakland, he talked briefly about the legacy he tried to leave his younger players with. ‘For me, it’s about being a man on and off the field,’ he said. ‘And about the way you carry yourself with your family in the community and what you mean to the game when you’re on the field.’ Not all managers can manage the way Wedge does, with the patience of a teacher and the swagger of an old Western sheriff.’

Seattle Times Staff Writer Geoff Baker (09/29/2012, ‘Eric Wedge walked out on Mariners with his dignity intact’, Source)

3. Phil Plantier, born January 27, 1969

‘I feel like I’ve been a world away from this place (Fenway Park) It’s been so long since I’ve been here — four years. To look back on when I was here, it feels like a different world. With as many uniforms as I’ve worn, and being in the other league, it feels a little strange, but it’s nice to be back. I experienced both ends of the spectrum here. I came up in this organization, and you tend to remember only the good memories.’

Phil Plantier in New England Sports Service (Sean McAdam, 05/18/1996)

4. Angel Berroa, born January 27, 1978

‘We wouldn’t be where we are without (Angel) Berroa. He’s the M.V.P. of our team.’

Kansas City Royals Manager Tony Pena (AP Wire, ‘No Angel, no playoffs,’ September 28, 2003)

Cheers,
Ante

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Grey!

I knew you’d love the Fenway association. I liked Plantier.

Yeah, haha Angel Berroa the superstar. He was very good and then not very good. What happened to him?

Cheers,
Ante

Charlie
Charlie
1 year ago

Grey,

I’ve been hanging on to this question for some time bc I was waiting for your public rankings to include Kyle Tucker. I didn’t want to spill the beans to your non-patreon subscribers.

Yahoo 10 team, h2h, 6×5 including ops, keep 7 forever, keeper value tied to the round a player was drafted, noted in parentheses.

I’m for sure keeping:
Trout (1)
Yelich(2)
Arenado (13)
Albies (14)
Acuna (24)

I have to pick two of these three:
Mondesi (3)
Giolito (4)
Tucker (22)

A while back I just assumed I’d keep Tucker bc of the year he had last year and that insane round 22 value. Previously, I asked you between Mondesi and Giolito who I should keep and you were torn. The people in the comments section were torn too. But after reading your writeup on Tucker you’re kind of meh/uncertain about him this year. “Is he going to be 24/24/.265, 30/30/.280, 30/15/.255 or something in-between?” and “I just don’t see the ‘Tucker will be a top 20 overall pick in 2022 after a fantastic 2021,’ like some must be seeing.” He just seems like a total dart throw. Sure the 22 round value is crazy insane value, but when starting my team with 7 keepers shouldn’t my goal be to load the team up with the best talent possible? Yes, round value should also be taken into consideration, but with the uncertainty surrounding Tucker vs we kind of know what we’re going to get from Mondesi and Giolito, would keeping Mondsei (round 3) and Giolito (round 4) be the better selections, albeit at a much crappier keeper value (3 and 4 vs Tucker at 22)?

Who is the odd man out, Mondsei, Giolito or Tucker?

Thanks!

Ray
Ray
Reply to  Charlie
1 year ago

My two cents: you keep Tucker and Mkmdesi and focus on SP in the draft.

Lord Farquaad
Lord Farquaad
Reply to  Ray
1 year ago

Gio 4 > Mondesi 3. Tucker 22 is a no brainer.

fivepoundbass
fivepoundbass
Reply to  Charlie
1 year ago

Don’t overthink Tucker. Any of the outcomes Grey mentions are great value in Round 22. The other two are a coin flip, but I probably keep Giolito

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  Charlie
1 year ago

I agree with Lord Farquaad. Giolito would give you an ace, and Tucker should turn a nice profit.

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Grey!

Charlie
Charlie
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Thank you all!!

It seems that the overwhelming consensus is to throw back Mondesi and try and re-draft him.

My only problem is if I ask myself which of these three players would I be ok with throwing back and not being able to re-draft? From a player performance standpoint, I undoubtedly would NOT be ok if I couldn’t re-draft Mondesi or Giolito knowing the type of numbers they can put up. Tucker is an unknown and the only reason why I suggested him as an option to throw back. Sure I’d be upset if I lost out on that value at 22, but I wouldn’t think twice about not having him on my team if someone else drafted him.

When looking at each position and who’s being kept it also presents another issue.

Based on Grey’s rankings these are who I think will be kept:

1. Bieber (kept)
2. Cole (kept)
3. deGrom (kept)
4. Darvish (kept)
5. Nola (kept)
6. Giolito <— me
7. Buehler (kept)
8. Flaherty (kept)
9. Bauer (kept)
10. Scherzer (kept)
11. Luis Castillo (not kept)

If I throw back Giolito and he's drafted the next best starter to draft would be Luis Castillo.

If we look at ss and do the same thing:

1. Tatis(kept)
2. Story (kept)
3. Turner (kept)
4. Lindor (kept)
5. Bichette (kept)
6. Mondesi <— me
7. Bogaerts (kept)
8. Anderson (kept)
9. Baez (kept)
10. Swanson (not kept)
11. Seager (not kept)

Going from a top 20 overall player in Mondesi and someone who will legitimately win you steals to Swanson or Seager, at best, is kind of meh.

Outfield wouldn't be as big of an issue since I have Acuna, Trout and Yelich, and would be then drafting my 4th outfielder.

But I'm genuinely stuck bc of the 22nd round value Tucker possesses. It boils down to do you keep the better players with no value due to their keeper round, or do you keep the lesser player but he has insane value at round 22?

Sorry for the long post. Just thinking out loud.

Charlie
Charlie
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Thank you! Tucker in the 22nd round does seem too good to pass, but just looking at my possible team after the draft and round values are kind of irrelevant, I hate the thought of losing one of Mondesi or Giolito. Especially when you have Mondesi as a top 20 overall player and Giolito as a top 35 overall player.

Charlie
Charlie
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Looking at the draft board, I own the first pick in the 3rd round. After removing keepers from rounds 1 and 2, I THINK I’ll have the third or fourth overall pick once the draft starts.

With that said, hopefully I can re-draft either Mondesi or Giolito.

Given the SP and SS available I mentioned above after taking out keepers, and with my 7 keepers, who would you rather have

1) One of these SS (Swanson, Seager, Semien, Edman) and Giolito

Or

2) Mondesi and one of these SP as my ace (Castillo, Woodruff, Gallen)

Thanks!

Charlie
Charlie
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Thank you so much!

Charlie
Charlie
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

I just saw Rudy’s and your projections for Arenado this season. Big yikes.

.260, 30 hr, 90 rbi, 1 sb, .800 ops.

This may sound crazy, but how would you feel about keeping Tucker over Arenado?

Tucker is round 22 value and Arenado is round 13.

Are their numbers going to be that much different? At least Tucker will chip in 12-15 sbs.

Jon
Jon
Reply to  Charlie
1 year ago

All else being equal – Eloy vs Buehler?