The top 40 outfielders for 2021 fantasy baseball is roughly around 75th overall to around the 150th spot overall to give you an idea of the big picture. There will be outfielders to draft and outfielders to ignore with convoluted reasons, as you’ve come to expect and eventually respect. Here’s Steamer’s 2021 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2021 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. All projections included here are mine, and where I see tiers starting and stopping are included. Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2021 fantasy baseball:
NOTE: All 2021 fantasy baseball projections are based on a 162-game season, and will be until we hear definitively there will be less games.
NOTE II: All my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.
NOTE III: Free agents outside the top 100 are not yet written up or projected. They are approximately ranked, obviously subject to change.
21. Brandon Lowe – This tier started in the top 20 outfielders for 2021 fantasy baseball. This tier ends at Biggio. I called this tier, “Miss Martian.” As for Lowe, already went over him in my top 20 2nd basemen for 2021 fantasy baseball.
23. Aaron Judge – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Meadows. I call this tier, “Forever …” Ya know when you’re waiting for someone to respond to you over text and you see those three dots, and you’re waiting and waiting and waiting, and start to lose your shizz? That’s this tier, but those dots are there forever and you will never get a response. The Waiting for Godot of texts. I wanted to rank these two guys even lower, but, if you’re following my rankings, there’s plenty of guys above this tier for you to draft. For unstints, if you get to Aaron Judge, and Castellanos, Lowe, Blackmon, Lewis, Conforto and so many others are already gone, then you’re drafting with 12 Greys. Could you have them call me? I haven’t heard from them in a while, and hope they’re doing well. As for Judge, seriously, who’s still drafting this guy? You glutton for punishment? Gluttony is a sin and your gluttony is torture. Hire a guy to flog your back with a cat o’ nine tails like every villain in a Dan Brown book, and stop drafting Aaron Judge. Please. 2021 Projections: 79/29/71/.253/3 in 444 ABs
24. Austin Meadows – I could’ve ranked Meadows another 20 spots later, but I’m telling you point blank Point Break is the best movie ever, and don’t draft Austin Meadows. Sure, maybe Meadows puts it all together, and is healthy for the first time ever, and maybe Cash doesn’t platoon a player for the first time ever, and maybe Meadows was just out of sorts last year with a floundering K-rate, and maybe his newfound, insane Launch Angle of 24.2 won’t stick, and maybe he won’t hit more fly balls than a karate champ whose expertise is groin kicks, and maybe the world will accelerate its rotation every time he hits a ball, and it will fly out of the stadium, and maybe his walk-up song will be a Phoebe Bridgers’s song, and all the opposing fielders will begin to cry unable to field his weak fly balls. So, who knows, maybe. 2021 Projections: 71/22/54/.257/10 in 411 ABs
25. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Solak. I call this tier, “Ricola commercial guy with giant lips.” This tier is filled with guys who are all loud, echoing chef’s kisses. If you had worries about how you were going to find outfielders to draft after I sorta hedged off the last ten-plus outfielders, I have good news for you. I’m really only off Judge and Meadows. I’m fine with some of the Miss Martians. Also, there’s gonna be a ton of outfielders to draft over the next twenty outfielders. Will be skipping out of the McNeil tier, which I will get to Altuvely, but this tier, and the Ian Happ tier further down the rankings is going to be prime drafting material. As for Gurriel, Teoscar but with a .275 average vs. .240. So, why is Teoscar being drafted before Lourdes? Great question. Go ask someone who is doing it and report back to me. I don’t think they have an answer. Not being an ass, being 100% serious. People do a lot of shizz they don’t have reasons to do. The Office did two seasons without Michael. Nah’mean? 2021 Projections: 88/30/101/.276/8 in 579 ABs
29. Teoscar Hernandez – Presenter in tuxedo opens envelope and reads, “…and the Teoscar for biggest bust in 2021 goes to Teoscar for, uh, Teoscaring.” There’s some awarding Teoscar that Teoscar. Yes, all the guys I loved last year are bust candidates this year. Welp, that sucks. Here’s my prevailing wisdom on prevailing wisdom: Dur. That’s it. Dur is my prevailing wisdom on prevailing wisdom. Teoscar might be over-drafted, according to ADP, but that doesn’t mean he’s not capable of 30+ HRs, 7 SBs, .240. It’s just whether you have to pay too high of a price for that. I loved that last year when it was being drafted around 200th or later. This year? Being drafted top 65 overall? Yeah, that is steep. In conclusion, which is what I say to wrap up shizz when I have nothing else to say, I like Teoscar, I’m not reaching for him. 2021 Projections: 78/30/91/.237/7 in 541 ABs
30. Alex Verdugo – I’m super jazzed about this tier, if you can’t tell. I’m typing this while doing jazz hams–Damn, typing and jazz hands is hard. So, you might find projections for some guys in this tier better than guys in other tiers. I’m just being more optimistic. There’s also more risk with guys in this tier. Risk I’m willing to take, but it’s fair to point out. As for Verdugo, was surprised I didn’t write a sleeper post for him, but I prolly figured I talked about him a lot in the last 12 months. This was why I didn’t write sleepers about a lot of guys, if I’m being honest. There wasn’t much of a season, so if I wrote a sleeper last year, I tried to avoid writing another one Sixty Games Later, as I’m calling the 2021 season. Okay, really, on Verdugo now, he’s a .310 hitter just waiting to happen. He’s not going to knock the Sox off ya in the knocks department. Maybe 21-ish homers on his ceiling. He won’t steal a bunch of bases either. He’s the kind of guy who could be a cheap DJ LeMahieu. I will call him DJ AtBarmitzvah. Also, I go over him in the video at the top of the page. 2021 Projections: 103/19/59/.304/7 in 568 ABs
31. Wil Myers – So, here I am guilty of doing what I keep ragging on others of doing. Overestimating the value of a 60-game season. Myers got better, though. His K% went way down, his HardHit%, his line drives…he made adjustments and they worked! If a guy gets better, he gets better, no? Is this crazy? Should he be in the “Am I crazy or not” tier in the top 20 outfielders? Sample sizes aren’t supposed to be small, which is what exes have tried to convince me, so it’s difficult to clearly say, “Yes, Myers got better,” but I truly believe he did. Of course, he didn’t (from what I can tell) become a 27.8% HR/FB guy. Steamer’s projections for him are head-scratchers in nearly every category, giving him 29 HRs, 14 steals and .239. I’m usually not this far off, but I think he’s much closer to what I have him down for, and Coolwhip just gave you his Wil Myers fantasy. 2021 Projections: 72/23/82/.277/6 in 558 ABs
32. Eddie Rosario – Signed with Cleveland. He does nothing but hit 27 homers and .275 every year. Cleveland could do worse. Like whoever else is in their outfield. Is there really someone named Daniel Johnson on their team or is that a filler name like John Doe? Progressive Field is a better park to hit in than Hubert H. Homerfree Dome in Minny, and I could see a career year for Rosario — career yeario? Hmm, will work on it. By the way, Cleveland plays in Progressive and it’s gonna take them a full year to change their name after announcing it. Mmkay. Progressive, yeah. 2021 Projections: 77/29/88/.271/4 in 524 ABs
35. Jeff McNeil – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Buxton. I call this tier, “Already went over these guys and Buxton.” By the tier name, I mean–Kidding, it’s obvious. As for McNeil, already went over him in my top 20 2nd basemen for 2021 fantasy baseball.
38. Byron Buxton – Don’t have past projections at my disposal. I mean, I might if I did five minutes of research, but the general gist is correct here: Buxton’s projections every year are 30/20/.270-ish and every year he does 15/15/.250-ish. While this is only vaguely right, it’s also 100% absolutely correct. This is after six seasons. So, sure, he could have his 30/20/.270 season this year, and you could get the one cashier at Dairy Queen that doesn’t give you a receipt so your order is free, but I’m not ordering extra jimmies on the off chance. 2021 Projections: 71/18/66/.261/16 in 433 ABs
39. Ian Happ – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 60 outfielders for 2021 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Any song that gets better after a third listen.” Any song that is great is not great on the first listen. I’m sorry, but if you find a song catchy after one listen, you are going to be so sick of that song by the 15th listen, then want to never hear the song again by the 25th listen. But, if a song is just okay after its first listen, then slightly better after its second go through, then you love the song on the third listen, that’s a song you’ll be able to listen to on repeat for twelve-hundred listens. That’s this tier. I’m actually surprised I didn’t write sleeper posts for every guy in this tier. As for Happ — Confession Alert! I started an Ian Happ sleeper, but stopped, because I’ve written it so many times in the past that it just felt stale and I’m 100% fresh guaranteed. Though, best if used by 3/01/2012, like the bottle of red pepper relish you got in a Harry & David gift basket that you’ve tried once. We all have that bottle, I’m not snooping through your pantry. I’ve written an Ian Happ sleeper so many times, I just wrote one less than 18 months ago. Here’s a key bit of tid, “(In 2019), he had a top 30 barrels per plate appearance with a more-than-enough 15.5 launch angle that shows itself in a 41.6% fly ball rate and career 22.6% HR/FB. If he had 530 at-bats with those peripherals, he’s going to hit 35 homers. Nearly identical fly ball and HR/FB% produced 38 homers for Gleyber Torres last year. For his current price of absolute zero duckets, Ian Happ is a great sleeper.” And that’s me quoting me! Prorating his 2020 numbers out? 35 homers. Happ’s about to have his one great full season, after four seasons of starts and stops. One small note, I’m not sure how to project his runs/RBIs. I can’t figure out the Cubs lineup. Maybe Happ leads off, but I have serious doubts that sticks all year. My guess is he gets more at-bats in the three hole. My projections for his runs and RBIs are hedges. 2021 Projections: 86/31/71/.252/8 in 541 ABs
40. Jorge Soler – Yet another guy I started and stopped a sleeper post on. This tier could’ve been called rev ’em up and jam that stick into neutral. Though, that might give the wrong impression. I like the idea being with a guy for a few years, then appreciating him like a song. I didn’t get very deep into Soler’s sleeper, before I looked at what I was going to project for him and think, “Okay, cool, I’d own that, but where’s the upside?” Well, 2019 was his upside, but I think that’s way above anything to expect, so everything else is a let down. 2021 Projections: 71/35/83/.242/2 in 541 ABs
CONTINUE ON TO THE TOP 60 OUTFIELDERS FOR 2021 FANTASY BASEBALL