Would you consider this a high-octane, high-offense, get-high-in-48-of-50-states-but-watch-your-stash-in-Alaska-type of environs? Present day baseball, I’m saying. Would you consider it a home run happy environment? Not to answer, but to nod along like you know where I’m going but will be surprised anyway. You would, right? I would, so it’s okay to think it. Okay, without looking up for the answer, how would you hit a home run? Trick question! You have to look up for the answer. It’s fly balls. You hit fly balls and you have a chance for home runs. What’s the opposite of fly balls? Okay, stop looking up, it’s ground balls. The lowest ground ball rates for qualified hitters last year:  Mike Trout (25.2%), Joey Gallo (26.6%), Adam Duvall (29.2%), Trevor Story (29.7%), Jose Ramirez (30.1%), and Freddie Freeman (31.6%). Just avoiding ground balls isn’t some kind of magic elixir, or Magik if a mutant is reading. You also need to hit the ball hard, like, say, Nick Castellanos, the Greek God of Hard Contact, who had a 26% line drive rate. Imagine someone hit fewer ground balls than Mike Trout, but more line drives than Castellanos, would that kind of magic interest you? Enter, stage right: The Amazing Anthony Santander…*Santander struggles to find an opening in the curtains, ruining his entrance*…The Amazing Santander! The Amazing…Will someone please help him with that stupid curtain? *watches as the curtain falls on him* Okay, we’re gonna fix that and the show will continue. So, what can we expect from Anthony Santander for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

As directly alluded to in the opening, Anthony Santander’s fly ball, ground ball and line drive rates were 49.6%, 23.6% and 26.8%, respectively. Or disrespectively, eat a D all you haters! Last year was a super small sample — that’s what she said derisively — for Santander. More so than other players, because an oblique (vague!) sidelined him, and he only had 153 ABs in 37 games. Those 153 ABs were commensurate with some of the best players in baseball last year. He had 7.9% barrels per plate appearance, which was same as Acuña. His year over year (though, clearly, it’s more like year over a month-plus) shows Santander in the top 10 for his increase in Hard Hit percentage. That drove other gains, and he went from a .264 xBA to .286 xBA, a rate increase nearly the same as Ozuna and Treat Urner, and top 30 overall. His Sweet Spot% was 40.6 and 15th overall, and 8th best increase from 2019. There’s not a ton of “bad” names in these lists where Santander is sitting.

You should be convinced by now that Santander was good last year, but are you coyly batting your eyelashes, wondering if he can be good in 2021? Why the hell would I be 500 words into a post about him if I didn’t believe? We wasting each other’s time for s’s and g’s? His Launch Angle last year was 24.7. That’s basically dragging the bat head on the ground and swinging straight up like you’re hammering something into the ceiling. My only actual concern is he becomes Joey Gallo and Rhys Hoskins, hitting a 50% Fly Ball rate and .240, due to a shizzton of 370-foot fly ball outs. The bright side is Santander has a .261 average two years running and a 15.2% strikeout rate last year. So, Santander might hit .240, but it’s going to come off of bad BABIP luck, or a ton of weak contact fly balls. It’s not going to come from strikeouts. The worst case scenario comp is Kyle Seager, who also hits fly balls and doesn’t strike out, but hits .240. Of course, Camdentown is better than Seattle’s Best Coffee and No Homer Park. Also, Seager is 33 years old, and Santander is 26, and entering his prime. Right now, Anthony Santander is going around 165th overall, and is an absolute steal. To give you a better, more realistic comp, Santander does what you want from Michael Conforto, and his top 75 overall price tag. For 2021, I’ll give Anthony Santander projections of 82/32/93/.271/2 in 567 ABs with a chance for more.

 
  1. NCPhilly says:
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    This post has the kind of headline that I consider skipping over “Anthony Santander? Boring”, but benefit greatly from reading.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha, nice!

  2. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Hello, is there anybody out there, just nod if you can hear me.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
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        That’s from a Pink Floyd song, but I figure you know that. Slow day at the office

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          You ever watch Classic Albums documentary series on Amazon Prime? The Pink Floyd one is really good — actually, they’re all really good

          • Malicious Phenoms says:
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            I’ll have to see if I have prime and I’ll check it out. Thanks

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              No problem

              • phil says:
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                Oh my there are so many and I had no idea! Any ones really recommended? There are 20 I’ve added to my watch list

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I’ve gone by my taste…I liked Phil Collins, Tom Petty, Steely Dan and Pink Floyd, off top of head

  3. Dave D says:
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    Here I was thinking this morning I was reading “Dear Santa,…dear” and I got my kids Christmas list all jumbled up. Not since “Rob Deer pulled the sleigh” have I misconstrued a holiday fantasy baseball sleeper post so badly.

    I was suprised to see you pick Kyle Lewis. I thought you’d take Ardolis there, but KL seems to be a good value there.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      You know me too well…I almost took Aroldis, and was def taking him if he made his way back, but, I felt like Kyle Lewis was just too good to pass up…I like him a lot, and SAGNOF, after all

      • Dave D says:
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        Yeah, totally. I think I’ll be adding to my OF soon as well. Only one so far.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, I’m between another OF and an arm for my next one…I’m happy with my infield, but want more OFs…I like your team, Strasburg does worry me a bit, obviously a gamble on bounce back

          • Hernan says:
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            Super interesting so far, this draft, who would’ve thought Yelich and Bellinger would end up in same team…, how the mighty have fallen…, in just 2 months of baseball….

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Your 1st two rounds stick out as the best 1st two rounds… People shouldn’t have let you get both of them, was kicking myself someone didn’t grab Yelich or Cody before that

              • hot corner says:
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                I am right before him. Was deciding between Yelich and Story and went with Story. Would have taken Bellinger if he didn’t. I am fine with starting Story/Harper.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, I’m fine with that too…I like Story/Harper a lot, so can’t fault it…It’s more on the person taking Buehler/Giolito 1/2

              • Hernan says:
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                Yeah, as crazy as it sounds, we wanted Giolito in Bellinger’s spot, I always lean towards anchoring pitching categories( although you can always run into a Verlander, Sale, Strasbourg situation ), guy took Buehler in 1st, doubled with Giolito right before us…, , heard it here first, Trent Grisham is going to lead NL in steals…

                • hot corner says:
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                  Like Grisham a lot and once again, he was the top of my queue and taken the pick before me. Bergman is a douche bag but if he hits then I can overlook it.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Might hear it first and last here! Giolito in the 2nd? Wow

                  • Malicious Phenoms says:
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                    Just my 2 euros, but there shud have been a few better SPs than Gio lite, if you’re gonna go SP in the 2nd

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      He was 5th SP off board, but, yeah, I don’t know about the 2nd, not really far off from his ADP tho in NFBC

                  • hot corner says:
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                    I just can’t get myself to take a pitcher in the first two rounds. I see all of the juicy hitters available and can’t help myself. It is mental block, like watching Mackey Sasser trying the throw the ball back to the pitcher back in the day.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Haha, same…No matter how many times pitchers burn fantasy owners, they go back right in on them — this year feels especially precarious bc hardly anyone threw more than 70 IP

            • Smitty says:
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              Happen to knoe Yelich is on a mission. Your 1-2 is awfully tough – tres bien Hombre!

          • Dave D says:
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            Thanks, yeah, so far so good. You and Hernan ate both looking solid as expected. I might have to start picking your sleepers soon since people are stealing all the other OF’s I like not named Verdugo…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Laureano! Nice! Yeah, I was looking at him or Muncy…Figured I’d take a guy with multi-eligib

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                I was looking at Myers too, went just before your 2nd

              • Dave D says:
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                Yeah, I did a similar thing on my next pick with Moose. He and Muncy have many similarities.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, I would’ve went Moose in some instances where I took Muncy — basically coin flip for me

                  • Dave D says:
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                    I wasnt intending to draft a 3rd SS so early but couldnt pass there on DiDi. Hes my UT guy I guess…

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Love Didi, might’ve passed him if I were you

        • Dave D says:
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          Jansen is your guy!!! It looks like a handcuff on him this year would be wise.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            I usually just grab whatever handcuff is available and don’t worry if it’s necessarily my guy’s handcuff

            • Dave D says:
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              Btw, I totally knew you were going Solak there. Good pick!

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Really like Solak a lot, wonder if I could’ve waited longer tho

                • Dave D says:
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                  You and Hunter are BFF’s!!!

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Haha, 1B/OF and not killing you becomes appealing in the 220s

                    • Dave D says:
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                      Indeed. Solid pick. Better than my Hampson pick. Im hoping reports on Mancini translate to full return to form.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, you took more risk than I want in one of these leagues, but you can find safety still if you want to hedge…

                    • Dave D says:
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                      Oh, definitely. Im far from done. Remember Im the guy who drafted Dylan Moore in round 45 last year. Im good at panning for gold

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yup! Feels like the earlier we do these drafts there’s a ton of gems late bc the more unknown with PT

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Really love Eflin this year, nice pick

                    • Dave D says:
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                      Thanks. Ef yeah!!! I’m so glad he was still available.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I almost took him the round before but figured he’d hang around

                    • Dave D says:
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                      Pearson over Gore, interesting… bold move. Maybe clearer path to starts off the bat though…

  4. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Hey, just gotta trade offer

    I get
    Domingo German

    I trade
    Robbie Ray
    Adbert Alzolay

    Whacha think

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Works for me

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
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        Cool thanks

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  5. The Great Knoche says:
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    Did I earn a Fuck you Knoche with the Happ pick?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yes! He would’ve been my pick there…How dare you.

      • The Great Knoche says:
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        I almost took Muncy the last time through too. Wish I would have now.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I kinda wanted Mountcastle too…Really don’t like drafting next to someone who is taking my guys

          • The Great Knoche says:
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            Makes you feel better I wanted Berrios.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I wanted Barnes!

              • The Great Knoche says:
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                Hahaha. You’re up. Don’t take…..

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  That’s easy, there’s no one I want

                  • The Great Knoche says:
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                    Right. already looking at the options for SP4 and SP5 and saying look at this shit…..

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Heaney’s a solid one, pitching is gonna be a nightmare this year

  6. Jayj says:
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    16 man dynasty. Bellinger or grisham and javier baez 2020.
    Also, soler or laureano. Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Cody

      Ramon

      • Jayj says:
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        Shoulder problem doesnt worry you? Also how close is it. Bellinger trade.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Everything I’ve read has said his shoulder will be fine…Close I guess if you need depth

  7. The Great Knoche says:
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    That was for CoolWhip.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Also my least favorite pick of yours — it’s fine tho, it’s a catcher, hard to be excited about any

      • The Great Knoche says:
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        Exactly. Hoping last year was mostly injury and see a slightly lesser form of 2019 Garver.

        Plus my queue is so meh. Need to get to the picks in the 500s where I can get excited about the prospect of finding someone who might land a rotation spot.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Is it me or does it feel like closers are more unknown right now than usual?

          • The Great Knoche says:
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            Yeah, when I took Barnes I looked for first time at team situations.

            I count 17 teams with either a committee or someone who ended as closer last year due to an injury or a trade. Gonna be a lot of shakeups between now and April and more teams I think will go the Tampa route.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Was the reason why I almost took Barnes…I took Romano and almost immediately felt like it was a wasted pick

              • hot corner says:
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                You are right on. It is a mess. That’s why I haven’t taken a true closer yet. I missed the run and can’t get myself to pull the trigger on a question mark.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Right? It’s so crazy, I don’t remember it being this bad last year at this point

                  • Dave D says:
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                    Its really just guess work and gambling. I figured I’d take Mayers 225ish because he may have value with or without saves. No need to overpay on question marks. I’d rather gamble on him than Will Smith dethroning Melancon or whatever…

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, Mayers is fine, seems to have current lead for saves in Anaheim, but who knows

  8. Nightpandas says:
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    December Grey,

    Say hi to November Grey, we talked a while back…

    Obp league keepers rounding into form

    Likely

    Olson Albies Suarez Tatis SMarte Merrifield Mondesi
    Buehler Maeda Carrasco and 2 of Greinke/KHendricks/Pressley

    Got offered Torenado and Lynn for Buehler and Suarez…hurting my pitching too much ? 15 team keep 11 forever

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Will do!

      Nah, not too bad…Even in your favor for 2021, but the “keep forever” would have me holding off

Comments are closed.