This top 20 1st basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball goes to about fiddy.  Last year, I said the first base position is going through a transition.  The position is still deep in that transition.  We’ll come out of the other side this year with a good idea of where we stand.  If Pujols continues to fall, if the washed up ones are completely done and if the up-and-comers are still on the move.  Hey, that sounds like a commencement speech from a school for porn.  Okay, let’s get into it because I can’t count to twenty and this list goes on forever.  As always, for each player there’s my projections and where I see tiers starting and ending.  There’s the position eligibility chart for 2015 fantasy baseball, and all the 2015 fantasy baseball rankings are under that linkie-ma-whosie.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball:

1. Jose Abreu – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.

2. Paul Goldschmidt – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.

3. Edwin Encarnacion – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.

4. Miguel Cabrera – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.

5. Anthony Rizzo – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.

6. Jose Bautista – Went over him in the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball.

7. Albert Pujols – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Freeman.  I call this tier, “Stop arguing with your mother about cleaning up your room and draft.”  By the tier name, I mean it’s not a total disaster if you don’t have a 1st baseman yet, but you really need to start moving on one.  We’re gonna be in the muckety-muck real soon.  As for Pujols, I was crazy high on him last year, and we escaped relatively unscathed.  As the great Kenny Rogers once said, “I want to beat the living crap out of a cameraman!”   Wait, that’s the wrong Kenny Rogers.  I meant the Kenny Rogers who once said, “You have to know when to hold ’em, and know when to fold ’em.”  I’m willing to draft Pujols, but I’m folding my overeager enthusiasm from last year.  2015 Projections:  81/27/96/.261/5

8. Chris Davis – Big Magoo went over Davis in his potential rebounds for 2015 post.  There, he said, “Davis’s huge ’13 season will almost certainly go down as his career year, but it doesn’t appear to be a complete fluke.  His power is very much real, and poor luck played a role in the .242 BABIP (resulting in a .196 BA) that he produced this past season.  With little change in his plate discipline and batted ball profile, Davis will produce something in between what David Ortiz (59/35/104/0/.263 – $18.8) and Chris Carter (68/37/88/5/.227 – $17.5) provided (in 2014), and recommend him.”  Magoo also touched on Davis’s shift and his suspension for testing positive for amphetamines.  All I’ll say is maybe Davis was shifting so much because he was jacked up on speed.  *reading further on this shift business*  Okay, maybe I was thinking of a different shift.  Davis will never be a .286 hitter again without some serious luck, and I’m concerned he may hit .220, but there’s few guys that could hit 40 homers and Davis is still on that list.  2015 Projections:  72/34/89/.231/2

9. Freddie Freeman – In the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball, I mention a disease often referred to as Poseyitis.  This affliction happens when a player is so good for real baseball it clouds the vision of a fantasy player.  Freeman’s owners are often afflicted with Poseyitis.  Freeman is a great real world hitter, he’s not a great fantasy hitter.  The one cure for Poseyitis is to remove player names and just look at stats.  Last year, Player A:  18 HRs, .288, 3 SBs vs. Player B:  17 HRs, .286, 4 SBs vs. Player C:  there is no Player C vs. Player D: 15 HRs, .285, 3 SBs vs. Player E:  17 HRs, .319, 0 SBs vs. Player F:  15 HRs, .288, 3 SBs.  Player A thru E is:  Freeman, Torii Hunter, Aramis Ramirez, Justin Morneau and Matt Adams.  2015 Projections:  91/20/94/.293/3

10. Todd Frazier – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Posey.  I call this tier, “1st base eligibility, schmligibility.  Play them elsewhere.”  Sometimes I love guys before anyone.  I wrote a sleeper post on Frazier for two straight years prior to this year.  Then, when the player finally connects with his promise, I lose some interest.  Frazier’s in that camp.  Hello, mudder, hello, fodder, why doesn’t Frazier still matter?  You don’t have to answer right now, I’ve only eaten franks and beans for the last six weeks and I’m the only one with my name written in all of my underwear!  Last year, Frazier hit 29 homers and swiped 20 bags.  Let’s take the first absurd number — the steals.  I get it, whatever Billy Hamilton has is contagious.  I suggest an antibiotic and the fact that Frazier was caught stealing 8 times.  That’s not great.  The Reds were hideous on offense last year, so they were pressing.  If Votto or Bruce are better, I doubt they keep sending Frazier like a bat out of hell when he runs like Meatloaf.  Next, those 29 homers.  He’s in a nice park, and the lineup should add more protection, but he doesn’t hit a ton of fly balls and his HR/FB% went up a bit over his average.  He’s likely more of a 24 homer guy, plus or minus three HRs.  Then there’s his BABIP.  He’s not a line drive machine and doesn’t have crazy speed.  I bet (which is code for ‘I have nothing to prove this’) Frazier hit quite a few singles into infield holes that were recently vacated by an infielder going to cover for Hamilton stealing.  I guess that could continue, but it feels fluky.  I loved Frazier last year, so it comes with some sadness to say I’m likely missing out on him this year.  2015 Projections:  79/24/73/.255/10

11. Carlos Santana – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball.

12. Buster Posey – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball.

13. Eric Hosmer – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Fielder.  I call this tier, “Trampoline’s got one broke leg, but it’s still functioning.”  With the tier name, I mean these two guys should bounce back a little from last year, but I don’t expect a full bounce back.  As for Hosmer, he had a 6.8% HR/FB last year.  That’s silly low.  Dexter Fowler had a higher HR/FB%.  Weak-sister middle infielders regularly have a HR/FB% that low.  Hosmer didn’t stop hitting fly balls.  He actually hit more fly balls last year, but his line drives dropped.  That usually means a hitter is making weak contact.  Let’s go month-to-month.  No homers in April and only one homer in May, then he starts pressing and hits three homers in June but .195.  Shizz is now totally pear-shaped for Hosmer, Salvador Perez is giving him rosary beads left to him from his abuelita and Hosmer hits 2 homers and .366 in July, then 3 homers and .290 in September after sitting out all of August with an injury.  July and September were not bad months.  He’s around a 18-homer guy, which he was in those two months.  Couple that with his 10-steal speed and .285-ish average and I can’t even fault him for how much the stupid media talked about his mohawk.  “Tom, you should totally get the Hos-hawk.”  *chuckle, chuckle, burp*  That’s Joe Buck talking to Tom Verducci this past World Series.  2015 Projections:  81/18/87/.288/9

14. Prince Fielder – If I was being more fair above than Hosmer warranted with his projections, I might be less fair with Fielder.  Here’s where my head’s at.  Holy crap, I just reached above my shoulders and I don’t know where my head’s at.  Oh, I remember now, I put it in the fridge because I was feeling hot.  Okay, I’m good now.  25 years old vs. 30 years old speaks volumes in baseball.  Hosmer’s 2014 can be looked as a blip on the radar; Fielder’s a blimp.  Blimps don’t age well.  Look no further than his own father.  Cecil hit 51 homers when he was 27 years old.  The next five years:  44, 35, 30, 28, 31.  Prince has already shown decline, even if we ignore his unhealthy 2014.  His last five years of homers:  46, 32, 38, 30, 25.  There’s thousands of smarter people than me (in the world, maybe) that have done studies to show the big-bellied age poorly.  Glance all the way down this list to where Ryan Howard is for a current example.  Shoot, I forget to tell people to glance back when done.  Okay, so we lost a few people there.  Any the hoo!  Fielder should be usable in 2015, but I wouldn’t expect a huge bounce back.  2015 Projections:  79/27/90/.272/1

15. Adrian Gonzalez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Votto.  I call this tier, “Wha’ happened?”  By the tier name, I mean where’d all the great 1st basemen go?  These guys are a’ight, but they feel more like corner men.  As for A-Gon, well, if you don’t know A-Gon by now, how do you have internet to check your fantasy team under that rock you’ve been living?  2015 Projections:  79/22/103/.264/1

16. Lucas Duda – I fought with myself about placing Duda even higher, but I lost.  Hmm, if I lost to myself, then I would place him higher, right?  Everywhere I look I see Dutch Boy because I’ve painted myself into a God-dang corner!  Duda’s 16% HR/FB, 49% fly ball rate and his average distance on homers was 403 feet.  Repeatable, repeatable, and yup.  Duda may go by the nickname Wet Tail, but I don’t see much here to think of him as a fluke.  Pun point!  2015 Projections:  74/31/90/.247/1

17. Joey Votto – The story of Votto is sad.  When I contemplate it, I sob like a Russian during the collapse of the monkey space program.  Votto seemed like the most talented hitter of the last ten years.  He didn’t pull a ball foul for like three years in a row.  You know why?  He squared up everything with a gorge line drive the other way.  Gorge, I tell ya!  That makes the monkey-space-program-loving Russian engorged!  Alas, unless Pulled Foul Balls is a negative category in your fantasy league, his fantasy value has evaporated faster than you can say, “Grey is my number one Chief Rocka.”  Votto’s batted ball profile gives me hope he can still hit for a solid average, but I can’t figure out a way to project him for 20+ homers.  2015 Projections:  84/17/88/.292/4

18. Victor Martinez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until LaRoche.  I call this tier, “I wonder what’s on TV.”  When your leaguemates are drafting these guys, you should be flipping channels on your boob tube.  I suggest watching The Returned on Netflix.  Best show ever?  P to the erhaps.  Do you need to read subtitles?  Yes, unless you speak French.  Oh, stop being such a Bob Ney, French shows aren’t bad.  This one is seriously amazing.  (By the by, Bob Ney, the guy who came up with Freedom fries, served a 30-month prison sentence.  Irony?  I don’t know, you’d have to ask Alanis Morissette.)  As for V-Mart, um, yeah, that’s cool, I ain’t touching him.  2015 Projections:  81/15/86/.302/1

19. Chris Carter – Everything broke right for Chris Carter last year, and he still hit .227.  Marla Gibbs called, she wants her address back!  Will he hit .220 this year?  Will he crack 30 homers?  Will he have two months hitting under .165 like he did last year?  The truth is out there and only Chris Carter knows.  What I know is if he didn’t have a giant month of August where he hit 12 homers and .270, we wouldn’t even be discussing him.  2015 Projections:  61/30/74/.219/3

20. Brandon Moss – When he was went to the Indians, I gave you my Brandon Moss fantasy.  2015 Projections:  69/23/84/.238/1

21. Justin Morneau – From this tier of guys I’m not liking, I’m most indifferent about Morneau.  But whoever said it was good idea to draft indifferently?  What are you a millennial with your can’t-care attitude?  I used to go to a library to read books when I was your age, because I CARED!  My fervor is at one thousand degrees and I’m boiling mercury!  You’re so lazy, you spell a lack of enthusiasm:  blahzay!  I need a nap!  *shoots up in bed*  I’m back!  The Coors factor has me lukewarm on Morneau, but he still has hit less than 20 homers in four straight years.  Not to mention, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him traded come midseason.  2015 Projections:  65/19/77/.286

22. Adam LaRoche – Here’s what I said this offseason, “LaRoche signed with the White Sox to play primarily as their DH… Is it considered ‘playing’ when it’s a DH?  Or is that used for positions?  Is the DH a position?  I feel like Ron Blomberg’s family interrogating him during the holidays.  “Ronnie, do you have to run when you DH or do they have someone do that for you too?”  “Ma, I’m a Designated Hitter.  I do everything a hitter does.  Geez!”  Ron Blomberg sounds a lot like Napoleon Dynamite.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2015 Projections:  71/21/82/.247/2

23. Mark Trumbo – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Belt.  I call this tier, “You have a corner infidel spot open?  Last chance, fancy pants!”  These guys are not 1st basemen.  We’re long out of that range.  These, here, are some corner infidels.  As for Trumbo, he seems old, right?  Like he used to backup Wade Boggs on the Red Sox old, right?  He’s 29 years old.  I’d just throw out his last year since he was injured and think of him as a guy that hit 34 homers in 2013.  2015 Projections:  65/29/80/.241/2

24. Matt Adams – As I theoreticalized (Made Up Word of the Day!) when Mark Reynolds signed with the Cardinals, it could be trouble for Adams ABs, but the sixteen inches of blubber around his waist is already trouble for his abs, and I think Adams still squeaks out about 130 games.  2015 Projections:  62/21/74/.279/2

25. Kennys Vargas – I already gave you my Kennys Vargas sleeper.  I wrote it while debating farm-raised and wild-caught salmon.  Those fish are smart!  2015 Projections: 74/25/83/.251

26. Brandon Belt – I could’ve also called this tier, “Breakouts or bounce backs waiting to happen.”  Belt could be either depending on how you look at it.  He had a seemingly breakout season in 2013, but then last year he hit 12 homers in what was essentially six weeks.  On May 9th, he broke his thumb, returned on July 3rd and got concussed on July 19th, sitting out until the final week of the season.  This year, he’ll be 27 years old and prepared to breakout (bounce back?) for the first time (once again?).  Hopefully, Belt won’t buckle and will put another notch in himself.  2015 Projections:  74/18/79/.278/5

27. Billy Butler – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Grandal.  “They shoot 1st basemen, don’t they?”  This tier means that 1st basemen don’t retire to the pasture, they just hang around forever as their skills diminish.  As for Butler, this offseason I said, “Signed on with the A’s to DH.  “When Billy Beane announced the signing to the media, he said, “Billy Butler is a signing for all of those big A’s fans.”  And, I’ll go further and say, not since Sir Mix-A-Lot toured through the East Bay has there been as much to rejoice about for big A’s fans.  If you are a big A’s fan, Butler’s got your back.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2015 Projections:  75/16/86/.297/1

28. Michael Morse – This offseason I said, “(Morse) signed with the Marlins.  I thought it was sick and twisted how Loria would sign all of these offseason guys with the obvious intention of getting rid of them at the first trading deadline, but this Morse signing is just too much.  In the last three years, Morse has 14 homers in April and no two months combined have more.  So, of course, by April 30th, the Marlins will be in first with an explosive first month by Morse only to watch him on May 1st pull his hammy with his oblique.”  And that’s me copying and pasting me!  2015 Projections: 56/18/62/.262

29. Brian McCann – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball.

30. Jonathan Lucroy – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball.

31. Steve Pearce – Last year, he hit 21 homers in 102 games.  Prior to that, he hit 15 homers in 290 games.  Oh.  Kay.  Ow, I just got an eye roll headache.  2015 Projections:  61/15/72/.264/3

32. Kendrys Morales –  When he signed with the Royals, I said, “The Royals got their replacement unathletic DH.  Whew, who was going to clog the bases otherwise?  Morales also fills that new need on the Royals for the Largest Player With Under Ten Homer Power.  Unless they were to sign Jose Molina, there wasn’t many guys they could’ve signed after losing Butler.  Last year, Morales hit .218, but that was partly due to unfavorable luck.  He should be good for a .250 average as long as his plate discipline doesn’t continue to whither as it did last year.”  And that’s thou quoth thou!  (I got all Shakespearean there.)  2015 Projections:  60/18/74/.249

33. Michael Cuddyer – When he signed with the Mets, I said, “(Cuddyer) turned down a deal with the Rockies to sign with Mets.  Cuddyer doesn’t sound Polish, but I’d like to see his family tree.  If I thought Cuddyer could stay healthy, I’d give him an outside chance at 20 homers and a .280 average.  Since he can’t, I don’t.  The last year that he hit in a home park other than Coors, he hit .284 and was already 32 years old.  Now, he’s 35, injury-prone and moving to Metco.  For 2015, I’ll give him the projections that are good…for a 2nd catcher.  Snap!”  And that’s–well, you know.  There sure were a crapton of old 1st basemen moving this offseason.  2015 Projections:  62/15/68/.272/4

34. Joe Mauer – You could take anyone from Billy Butler to Ryan Howard and say, will he be good again?  The only one anyone will write about anywhere except on this site is Joe Mauer.  People love Joe Mauer.  Everyone realizes he only had one superb year, right?  He’s now had two times that many garbage years and a few decent ones.  The career .319 average is great, awesome, adjective.  He’s also averaging 13 homers and 5 steals over the course of a 162-game season for his career.  On what planet is his average season worth discussing anymore without the catcher eligibility?  Not rhetorical!  I will await your timely response, Joe Mauer lover.  2015 Projections:  70/11/61/.292/4

35. Mike Napoli – The bad news is he doesn’t hit righties very well, he’s getting old, he’s hitting too many ground balls, not enough fly balls, he’s constantly breaking down and the Red Sox may platoon him.  The good news:  there’s no more bad news!  2015 Projections:  58/19/64/.235/3

36. Mark Teixeira – I’m kinda excited to see how well Te(i)x and A-Rod hit this year.  That’s, of course, assuming they accidentally bump into a syringe in the back of Sammy Sosa’s Escalade that is newly-painted white.  2015 Projections:  62/18/70/.239/1

37. Ryan Howard – I enjoyed the rumors this offseason of clubs talking to the Phils about trading for Howard.  I imagine those rumors went like this, “Hello, ESPN, I’d like to report that the Orioles are interested in Ryan Howard.  Who is this speaking?  Um, an Orioles club exec.  What’s my name?  Um, Ruben Camaro Jr.  It’s Camaro, not Amaro!”  2015 Projections:  58/20/77/.217

38. James Loney – My first baseman has a second name L-O-N-E-Y.  My fantasy team has a chance in H-E-Double-Hockey-Sticks to win.  2015 Projections:  58/10/66/.285/3

39. Logan Morrison – If he were an NFL player, he would change his name to Hashtag That.  2015 Projections:  58/15/67/.249/3

40. Yasmani Grandal – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball.

41. Adam Lind – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the list.  I call this tier, “Who are you, Billy Beane?”  What I mean by the tier name is these guys are cheap as fudge, but also need to be platooned.  As for Lind, he should be decent vs. righties and lots of fun to watch play first base for the Brewers.  Reflexes like a cat, that man.  A cat that is on Quaaludes.  2015 Projections:  44/14/56/.257/1

42. C.J. Cron – I already gave you a C.J. Cron sleeper post.  It put the fun in Funyons.  Unfortch, The Sciosciapath doesn’t like anyone to have fun and almost immediately after I posted it, they traded for Matt Joyce.  I still like Cron, but you need to platoon him now.  2015 Projections:  42/16/48/.278/2

43. Lonnie Chisenhall – He had a breakout season last year, right?  Well, he hit 13 homers in 142 games with a .280 average.  So, he did have a breakout…for Yunel Escobar.  Lonnie went gonnie once against lefties last year and had a huge BABIP to help fuel his .294 BA against same-handedness.  I.e. he’s a platoon player.  I.e., sad emoji.  2015 Projections:  42/11/47/.259/2

44. Stephen Vogt – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball.

45. Mark Reynolds – When he signed with the Cards, I said, “On the surface, this seems like a whatever move that will only benefit daily NL-Only leagues, since Mini Donkey will only bat vs. lefties.  Unfortch, this will cost Matt Adams ABs.  Adams has spent his life struggling to find his ABs, don’t take them from him now!  “If you hold my left moob up, I can point to an ab.”  That’s Matt Adams locating his ABs for a passerby.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I told you in Adams’s blurb I had ABs and abs concerns.  2015 Projections:  39/16/43/.217/4

46. Garrett Jones – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(Jones) went to the Yankees or as I now call their offense Old and/or Crappy.  O a/o C is a perfect landing spot for Jones.  There, they will appreciate his O a/o C.  Jones wasn’t in a platoon last year, but he should’ve been.  My natch’s grande!”  And that’s, well, you get the picture.  2015 Projections:  44/12/52/.252/2

47. Justin Smoak – Technically, he’s not platooning.  He’s a DH alternate.  Usually being an alternate is only good in the Olympics, cheerleading and juries. But in front of him is Dioner Navarro and I wouldn’t be surprised if Smoak wins the job out the spring and ends up being more valuable than about twenty guys in front of him.  Want a crazy flyer for a very deep league?  Here ya go!  Or Yago if you’re an anime character.  2015 Projections:  58/21/67/.212

48. Jon Singleton – I want to write a Singleton sleeper post, but time will tell if I have the opportunity after the rankings.  He already signed a five-year deal with the Astros, so he’s not being demoted.  His splits are bizarre; he hit over a hundred points higher vs. lefties.  That’s bizarre because he’s a lefty.  Yeah, that makes no sense, but it tells me he’s not a platoon guy.  He’s just a guy that was struggling.  Okay, he’ll hit for a .220-ish average, who cares?  Random Italicized Voice, he’s 23 years old and he could hit 35 homers.  Hayzeus Cristo, finally a reason to listen!  (UPDATE:  Sadly, or sad emoji if you’re under 16 years old or over 75 years old, Singleton looks ticketed for the minors to start the year, or until there is an injury.)  2015 Projections: 31/15/39/.238/1

49. Mitch Moreland – He only hit 2 homers last year, but Fielder only hit 3 homers, so Moreland could hit like 30 this year!  Sideways emoticon with a brown squiggly line that is a trail of doodie.  2015 Projections:  52/12/60/.238/1

50. Ike Davis – Only two years removed from a 32 homer season.  And Bill Cosby is only two years removed from you not wanting to have a lab test the cola he just handed you.  2015 Projections:  48/15/54/.225/2

51. Yonder Alonso – Where’s everyone else ranked?  Over Yonder.  2015 Projections:  48/9/53/.252/5

 
  1. Baseball is um well ... says:
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    Am I gonna have to say it or will Rudy?

    I didn’t onow Freddie Freeman was gonna fill in for Gattis as a catcher!

      • bossmanjunior333 says:
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        @Grey:

        Maybe because you referenced the catcher rankings and Poseyitis? No idea…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Oh, hmm…

  2. Brian says:
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    Glad to have the rankings back! Quick question. In an NL only league that replaces BA with OPS, would Trumbo be more about where you have A-Gon? I just don’t like any 1Bs this year at their prices and I was thinking of saving money there by targeting Trumbo (or Morneau or Duda). How strongly do you feel about needing to have a quality 1B in an NL only league, especially when you have to have five outfielders?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Brian: Can move Trumbo up a few, sure… You should try to have a quality everything, especially 1B

  3. apoxonbothyourhouses says:
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    holy cow. what i thought was 20 is 50! Thanks Grey!

  4. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!

    Just looked at the “odd trick restores your vision” ad and now I can’t shite.

    Superb write-up, really detailed. Thoroughly enjoyed.

    Have been doing some mock drafts in 10-team mixed H2H rooms with 9 bots. Some random observations follow.

    1. There were no good pitchers left after round 10. I lived in the pitching category / section from rounds 10 to 22. Hopefully there will be some mocks with real people selecting.

    2. Was able to draft 6 of your top 10 picks with Rendon the last of your top 10 going around pick 81 or later.

    3. Arenado and Desmond are both going much later.

    Will let you know more at a l8r date.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante GALIC: Thanks! 1. There’s a lot of SPs after round 10 2. I don’t trust that mock 3. Arenado maybe, Desmond shouldn’t

  5. Tigres says:
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    Hey Grey – You like Duda as a 1B option in OBP league? Looks like he is more in CI range in standard league.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Tigres: It’s a bottom 1B, top CI

  6. Natty Boh says:
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    Chris Davis was caught taking Aderall last year resulting in his suspension. Apparently in 2013 he had the proper paperwork in to take the prescription (career year). Last year he did not, had an awful season, started using again and got caught. This year he has the proper paperwork in and will be using Aderall (MLB approved). I’m not sure what it does for athletes but they keep getting caught w/ it (Haloti Ngata). Take it for what its worth but Davis is back on the pill.

    • apoxonbothyourhouses says:
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      @Natty Boh: Adderall helps with “focus” for narcoleptics (My Own Private Idaho, anyone?) and ADHD people (usually kids). The problem, though, is that adderall is a phenethylamine and more akin to crystal meth than it is to Ritalin.

      • Can you imagine..., the gallons of human spit says:
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        @apoxonbothyourhouses: remember all those guys in the 70’s-80’s on greenies? you know, the ones get into the hall with no bitching from most of the same hypocrite twits that would tell you bonds/sosa/90’s dopers were the epitome of cheating? Adderall is just as much speed as greenies, and just like greenies were prescribed by doctors in those times, Adderall is now (for different medical explanations maybe).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Natty Boh: Yeah, don’t really know what Adderall does for a hitter like Davis, maybe helps him focus on the pitches, maybe it’s confidence

  7. Hoosier Daddy says:
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    Amazingly, Big Papi qualifies as 1B in yahoo with 5 games started last year- Where would you squeeze him into the rankings?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Hoosier Daddy: I’ll rank him in the top 400 overall… He’s around Posey

  8. Q says:
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    Papi? I know he’s a DH, but Moobs is there so I womdered….

    Brilliant you’re back, G

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Q: Thanks! Papi only had 5 games, I ranked based on at least 10 games

      • Can you imagine..., the gallons of human spit says:
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        @Grey: whereabouts would papi be in yahoo leagues (1B eligible)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Around Posey

  9. The JoGarza says:
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    You weren’t kidding about turning the dial up on the 1B!

    Great stuff, Grey.

  10. McNulty says:
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    I think alot of the teens and 20 something ranked 1B can finish 7th place around Pujols 260-27. That shows how little gap there is after the top tier. If you don’t get a top 6 1B, I think you can wait for your favorite sleepers

    • Ra'zball Al Ghul says:
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      @McNulty: Agreed

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @McNulty: They *could*, but there’s a lot more risk

  11. Mes to the Rocco says:
    (link)

    The real question here … who is Player F in the Freeman writeup?

    • Hawk says:
      (link)

      @Mes to the Rocco:

      It’s Matt Adams. There is no C.

  12. Powerslave says:
    (link)

    Elite Read as Always!!!, Changing Subjects, other than County Jail or Deportation, where do You think Everth Cabrera ends up in 2015???, seems like cheapest/sneakiest 35/40 steals from middle infielder for late 50 round NFBC Slow Affairs…., Thanks!!! and stay Awesome!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Powerslave: Thanks! Utility guy for someone, likely… Maybe Tampa (which would be great for him)…

  13. JeF With 1 F says:
    (link)

    Wet Tail!!!! now the season can begin

      • JeF With 1 F says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Cold

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Damn!

          • JeF With 1 F says:
            (link)

            @Grey: My girlfriend keeps me warm though

  14. Gonzo_The_Great says:
    (link)

    Kudos sir for going above and beyond on this one.

    You just shattered my world on Freeman. He was a guy I was upset about not drafting last year (after being fairly pleased with him the year before). But, I really had no idea the stats were so meager.

    I think you’re being too generous with Hosmer. Though, I can’t wait to see how overdrafted he is because of his postseason.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Gonzo_The_Great: Thanks! Yeah, maybe on Hosmer, but at a certain point he’s worth the risk… Where I have him ranked is still around 7th/8th round overall

  15. Inigo Montoya says:
    (link)

    H2H points league, 14 teams keep 8 which means the top 112 are generally gone. Each round has contract years and I need help with my last keeper. When a contract hits 0, you have to give up your first to keep that guy for another 3 years. I need help so I don’t let real life interest hurt my fake life interests. Miguel Cabrera is at 0, I am a Tigers fan. I already have Jose Abreu and Victor Martinez on my squad so first is loaded. I have no third, but also have Carlos Santana who can slot in there or first. Also have Adam Jones, Ian Kinsler, Mad Bum , Kimbrel and Elvis Andrus. Do I drop Cabrera and keep Kimbrel and Andrus, keep Cabrera and Kimbrel losing my first. and would you do Kimbrel/Andrus for someone like Matt Harvey? sorry for the length, I am torn on this.

    • Catcher Fever says:
      (link)

      @Inigo Montoya: If I’m reading this correctly, it’s Miggy vs E.Andrus + the 120st best player (or so)?

      Assuming you’re giving up the 1st rounder (~120th best player) one time only and not three times… this is a total no-brainer.

      E.Andrus was barely roster-able last year at SS, regardless of league size.

      • Inigo Montoya says:
        (link)

        @Catcher Fever: wish it was that easy, but many of the 0’s are released back into the pool as teams either have multiple 0’s on team and can only keep 1, traded their first round pick so they cant keep, or just are not giving up pick to keep. Many teams trade picks for 0 year rentals and end up with 3-5 of them to make a run. For example, one team has Cano, Gonzo, Josh Donaldson, Dee Gordon, and Jon Lester all at 0. He traded his first away last year so all of these guys will be available in the first round.

      • goodfold2 says:
        (link)

        @Catcher Fever: you’ve clearly never played in a 20 and up team league. Even if Andrus was player rated near the bottom of that you’d be silly as hell dropping him in leagues that deep.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Inigo Montoya: I don’t really understand… Need it again in simpler terms

      • Inigo Montoya says:
        (link)

        @Grey: give up a first to keep Miggy when I already have 3 first baseman. Or drop Miggy, keep Kimbrel and Andrus and have a pick to get more of a top 30 player with pick 1. I guess it all comes down to, is Miggy gonna be the 2013 model or the 2014 version.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          If you already have three 1st basemen, it doesn’t seem to make much sense to keep him if there’s decent players that will be available with that pick. Is there?

          • Inigo Montoya says:
            (link)

            @Grey: no, but 3 DH slots makes it hard to send him packing. Sorry for the confusion, complicated league and only one cup of coffee so far.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              There’s no decent players to pick?

        • Catcher Fever says:
          (link)

          @Inigo Montoya: So Andrus + Cano/Donaldson or Miggy for 3 years + SS at the end of your draft.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            That is easier to follow, if that’s what it is

    • Catcher Fever says:
      (link)

      Kimbral is your 7th best so keep an take him out of he equation. You have Kinsler and Carlos so I’m not sure Cano/Donaldson are more valuable than Miggy at DH.

      But bottom line id list who will be available for you in that” 1st round” instead of Miggy. Knowing your draft slot is imperative. I’d do a whole spreadsheet plotting it all out. Could be a huge drop off (Lester, D.Gordon don’t compare). Then can you easily replace Andrus later on? That would be an easy yes to me. Rangers have good young MIs and he might get traded away anyway.

      Unless of course you have someone else you can keep instead of Andrus (I hate him).

  16. Wake Up says:
    (link)

    I liked it a lot more when everyone else liked Freeman a lot more…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Wake Up: Yeah, me too… Wait, Wake, they do

      • Wake Up says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Kudos to you then! I don’t think he’ll be so overdrafted this year though…

        This wanted to say overproof…yeeesh…like I need anymore encouragement…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I only saw one other site ranking and he was 14th overall I think…

          • Wake Up says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Wow!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              What? Dix?

              • Wake Up says:
                (link)

                @Grey: didn’t know he was that hi again snizzoop…

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Oh, word

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @Wake Up: By everyone, do you mean me, Wake? I seemed to be the only one saying he was a 2nd rounder last year.

      • Wake Up says:
        (link)

        @Cram It: Didn’t remember that…wasn’t he ranked top 25 everywhere?

      • Wake Up says:
        (link)

        @Cram It: love the mid January paranoia though…gonna be o long season!

        • Cram It says:
          (link)

          @Wake Up: It’s the most stressful time of year!

  17. Ned Shakeshaft says:
    (link)

    In my heart of hearts, Joe Mauer will always be that “Player C” you refuse to acknowledge.

  18. Me says:
    (link)

    Longoria and Trumbo for Harper, who wins in a keeper(dynasty)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Harper

  19. OldMilwaukeePounders says:
    (link)

    I know he most likely doesn’t qualify yet, but Alvarez is moving to 1st full time for Pittsburgh. Assuming that he gets the bulk of the ABs, where would you put him in your top 50 first baseman? Frankly, I can’t see him being quite as bad as he was last year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Alvarez will platoon with Corey Hart… He’d be around that of Pearce

      • OldMilwaukeePounders says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        I’ve read a bit of speculation coming from Hurdle himself saying that Pedro won’t platoon. Granted, this was about 8 days before signing Hart. I just hope the Pirates don’t fool around and limit both Pedro and Polanco’s ABs too much with Hart/Snider/Harrison/Rodriguez/Lambo/Kang.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Don’t see where else Hart plays if not occasionally at 1st

  20. Devil in a New Dress says:
    (link)

    I, for one, appreciated the Kanye reference in Votto’s blurb

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks, DiaND!

  21. Andy says:
    (link)

    Grey, love the updated 2015 lists so far. 14 team 6X6 roto. OBP/HR/RBI/R/SB/TB & W/ERA/WHIP/APP/S/K. $260 salary at auction. We can keep 6 MLB and 4 MLers but each kept year they raise $5 in salary (all values given are for 2015 season). I am currently keeping –
    Rizzo$25/ Altuve$16/ Puig$11/ Springer$6/ Melcancon$9/Robertson$11/(M)R.Castillo$4/M.Gonzales$2. I am being offered (M)Soler$1,(M)Lindor$1 or (M)Gioilto$1 for Melancon and Robertson. I like Soler because I can get a starting MLBer as a MLer designation which gives me an extra keeper. It would then allow me to keep 2 of the 3
    Adam Jones$25, Yelich$11 or Tyson Ross$7. thoughts?

    • Andy says:
      (link)

      Correction – Soler & either Lindor or Giolito. I get 2.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Soler

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Take Soler… Yelich, Jones

  22. Jon says:
    (link)

    Would you deal Frazier or Hosmer for any of the following pitchers?

    Iwakuma, deGrom, Tanaka, Ross, Roark, Richards

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hosmer and Iwakuma or Ross are basically a push, depends what you need

  23. bossmanjunior333 says:
    (link)

    Outfield looks deep this year. Definitely aiming for a Goldy/Abreu/Encarnacion/Cabrera in the first round with Rizzo as a fallback in the second.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yup!

  24. Charlie says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    6×5 (including obp), h2h, keep 7. You keep the player in the round he was drafted and do not draft in that round. I have 8 players and need to eliminate 1. Going into this year I have two 5th round picks so I can keep both Sale and Goldschmidt. Unless I acquire an additional 5th round pick for next year I won’t be able to keep both Sale and Goldschmidt in next year’s draft. WIth that said, which 7 do I keep? Thanks.

    Trout – round 1
    Stanton – round 2
    Adam Jones – round 3
    Scherzer – round 4
    Sale – round 5
    Goldschmidt – round 5
    Arenado – round 13
    Todd Frazier – round 24

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Lose Scherzer

      • Charlie says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        You’d dump Scherzer over Sale? And then next year not have either of Sale or Scherzer available to anchor my staff?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          It’s a coin flip, just went with the later round guy… If you want Scherzer, go for it… I would definitely lose one of the SPs though

          • Charlie says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            Sale is 5 years younger and the better pitcher. However, he is more injury prone and if I keep him over Scherzer then I’d essentially lose both going into the following year unless I acquire another 5th round pick next year.

            Given the scenario which would you do? Throw back the better pitcher in Sale but have my ace next year in Scherzer or keep the better pitcher this year in Sale but lose both pitchers next year?

            Essentially, who do you see as the better pitcher this year and in the next handful of years, Sale or Scherzer?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Keep Scherzer

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Unless he goes to the Rockies

              • Charlie says:
                (link)

                @Grey:

                Haha. Thanks.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  No problem

  25. Mike says:
    (link)

    Is there a specific reason you aren’t drafting V-Mart?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, cause he’s a 15-17 HR, .300 guy… Not far from Loney…

  26. GhostTownSteve says:
    (link)

    Rizzo is the 5th 1st baseman off the board in NFBC ADP right now at pick 18. Freeman is the 6th at pick 40. That’s not a tier, it’s a sob.

    I didn’t like Pujols last year. I think the market for him looks a lot better this year. The injury risk and the age factor have finally overcome the allure of the “old Pujols”, by which I meanthe young Pujolsn. Not the new Pujols, you know the old one. Got it? He’s the kind of player I find myself interested in year in and year out. All the upside drained out of him. Blue chip stock with contracting market share but plenty of assets. 31st ranked overall last year on the RazzRater, Current ADP 66.

    Spider sense for some reason tells me to take a look at Hosmer this year. I’ve had it in my head that Hosmer’s issues have been somewhat mental. I know it’s a fools game to try to read into player psychology from a distance. If I weren’t a fool, would I be playing this game? Hosmer rushed to the majors, had been a success at every level, and I distinctly remember in 2012 KC HoF announcer Denny Matthews talking repeatedly about Hosmer being snake bit that year hitting into the shift and making loud outs and how it seemed to be really affecting him psychologically. I feel like maybe the Royals team success last year and the momentum are going to somehow carry Hosmer back to something closer to 2011.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Wow, Freeman is later than I thought… Still think it’s early on the ADP data though… Yeah, I could see myself drafting Rizzo in the first and Pujols in the 4th as my corner man… I owned him last year, and didn’t regret it… Pujols feels like he’s a safe counting stat bet with a .275 average… Yup on Hosmer too… I think he’s too young to write off just yet… A 20 HR, 10 SB season wouldn’t shock me…

  27. JD says:
    (link)

    You have Pujols at #7 and Fielder at #14 with nearly identical projections, except that Prince might hit for 10 points more in average. Is this more of a fear Prince gets hurt turning his head around too fast after hearing someone say “vegan ice cream!”

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Fielder has more risk…I.e., he didn’t play last year

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
        (link)

        @Grey: also, somebody that wants to recreate kenny powers’ life might get signed by TEX and he’d clearly at least attempt to bang fielder’s wife, leading to awful stats.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ha… Or buy a Jet pack

  28. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
    (link)

    Davis is the 72nd player off the board with an ADP of 76.86 in NFBC drafts right now. He was taken with the 86th pick in Sky’s recent mock. Looks like a nice value pick at that price. Let’s stop talking about him, shall we? I have a feeling that he’s gonna start rising up draft boards over the next few weeks.

    V-Mart is a very interesting player this year. I’ll save that discussion for a future post in which I, uh, discuss him.

    Another 1B-eligible player that looks interesting is Pearce. Current NFBC ADP is 217.69, so the crowd agrees with your ranking of him here. But is he a one-year wonder or a late bloomer? His ISO jumped from .251 in the 1st half of the season to .278 in the 2nd, and his BB% improved from 9.1% to 12.1% as well. The only real difference was in his BABIP which dropped from .350 to .286, due to the increased FB% (43.9 to 47.8) and drop in LD% (22.3 to 15.7). Otherwise, he was very consistent throughout the season. Not sure if there will be quite as much regression as most people expect.

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @Big Magoo: Crush will hit 15 HR’s in the pre-season and the frenzy will start up again.

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
        (link)

        @Cram It: I can definitely see something like that happening. Hopefully not, though…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Would you draft Pearce as your 1st baseman or corner man? Or simply UT?

      • Sky

        Sky says:
        (link)

        Why don’t y’all just wait for my deep league thoughts post on Pearce and then make your conclusions.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          If you wrote a post on him, I’m guessing it’s a positive… You wouldn’t draft Pearce as a 1st or corner man, would you?

          • Sky

            Sky says:
            (link)

            Without giving too much away from the actual post, I see him as having a ceiling of CI. Right where you’re thinking Votto on down, I’d be considering him but know I can get him later.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              What I just said to Magoo

              • Sky

                Sky says:
                (link)

                Track record is important; but realization that changes have occurred to improve some things and that he’s never really had much of a chance to play past spot starts matters too. I think he’ll finish the year in your top 20 1B.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Steamer agrees with you, fwiw… I just see a bunch of years of an under 10% HR/FB, which would put him around 14 in a healthy year…

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
                    (link)

                    Yeah, I just see a lot of years of minimal ABs; just one year of above 150 PAs and that was on 3 teams. There’s a human element to all of this; guys moving in and out of the lineup, no chance to establish any rhythm or work on anything from game to game. Plus he did actually change his batting stance last year. I didn’t even realize steamer’s projections until I was done writing the post and was surprised by the similarities in expectation.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah, that could all be true, but feels more anecdotal… I just see a guy breakout at 31 (is it?) and wonder how often a player waits that long to break out and think the answer is close to zero…

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      Assuming the anecdotal part to you is the ‘establishing rhythm’ side of things. We can agree to disagree there; he was stuck on a Pirates team that didn’t want him for basically 6 years of his career and we’ve written off small sample sizes when dealing with players plenty, especially when considering inconsistent ABs. Statistically you’re completely right; it’s not often at all you see a guy break out over 30. But that’s why situation trumps things for me: a guy who’s had health issues and relatively little chance given by teams that have had him finally gets one. Like I said, top 20 1B for me but we can talk about this in September :)

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah, fair enough… One last thing, in a 12 team league, Pearce has a horrendous April, what’s your leash like for him?

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      Very short because it’s a 12 team league but as I’m sure you’d agree, that doesn’t really say much. Gyorko was chuckable by the end of April and he was drafted in the top 100 on most draft boards last year. But in the end, my posts are called ‘deep league thoughts’ so my initial reason for even evaluating him is outside of the 12 team realm. He’ll probably get drafted at UTIL on a couple of RCL teams. Will be interesting to see how that ride goes.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Gyorko was chuckable, but I think most held longer…. That feeling that things will get better… I just wonder if Pearce has a bad April if anyone will feel he gets better… Shoot, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get dropped by mid-April if he struggles for two weeks… Of course, that would be too quick to jump ship but that’s the level of confidence people have in him… For better or worse, level of confidence has to play into…

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah, that cuts both ways there. Lots of top 100 type players last year were droppable by the end of April but because they had a track record – I’m looking at you Pedro Alvarez – they stayed rotting on rosters for a while and hurt your team. The flipside is the price point on Pearce doesn’t give you any strings to attach in a 12 team league and it’s doubly fruitful: not many believers means if he does pick it back up, you can probably get right back in on the ground floor. You drop Pedro and even though he’s hitting .180 with zero HRs, there’ll be 5 waivers out on him. But just so it’s clear so we can have the fun September talk, I’m still calling Pearce a top 20 1B this year. Put it in your iCal!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Ha… All right, we’ll see… Good discussion!

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      Agree, different eyes on the same prize is always fun. Just don’t put the note in as ‘Steve Pearce: Sky’s an idiot’ please.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Setting my iCal, can’t promise what I’m setting it with!

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      I’ll take it!

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
          (link)

          @Sky: Oops. Hey everyone, read Sky’s future post on Pearce! There ya go…

          • mauledbypandas says:
            (link)

            @Big Magoo: can I borrow your time machine

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I think he’d make a fine corner infielder if you miss out on some of the big names. I’m not saying to reach too far for him, but he has decent job security this season due to the O’s losing Cruz and Markakis in FA, dual 1B/OF eligibility, and no glaring red flags in his profile. The only major negative is the lack of a track record, which isn’t really his fault because of the lack of opportunities that he received prior to last season.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I guarantee you won’t be happy with Pearce as a corner man in anything shallower than 15 team… Track record means a lot here since he’s so old…

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Of course, track record matters, but it’s not always a good reason to avoid a player if there’s a relatively small sample size involved.

            Gentlemen’s bet: Pearce outproduces Vargas on the player rater this season. What say you?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              I’ll take Vargas…. See what I just said about HR/FB to Sky

              • Big Magoo

                Big Magoo says:
                (link)

                @Grey: I’ll save any further discussion on Pearce for Sky’s post, but I will leave you with this parting stat – Pearce’s average flyball distance was in the same range (but slightly ahead) of Harper, A-Gon, and Bautista, among others…

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  That is interesting, didn’t realize that… Still not convinced, but that’s a positive, for sure

          • goodfold2 says:
            (link)

            @Grey: that sounds intuitively true; only league i was comfortable owning pierce last year AND i had a decent or better team in was a 20 teamer that from injuries i was forced into owning both pierce and kennys. (pierce at LF or util mostly)

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Yup

    • GhostTownSteve says:
      (link)

      For what it’s worth, I’ve been tracking Pearce for awhile now. This was a scouting interest. I’ve seen him live several times at the O and the swing is very solid. Good quiet hands. Ball comes off his bat loud. I definitely have interest.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Where are we with his huge jump in HR/FB?

        • GhostTownSteve says:
          (link)

          @Grey:

          You and I have had this conversation almost from when I started coming on to the site and we went back and forth on Jose Bautista. You were a non-believer in his breakout. What I said then and what I say again now is that I get much more interested when there is deep and consistent correlation with a documented change in approach. When it is simply something that seems to arise out of nowhere, then I am much more likely to expect regression. But with Bautista there was a definitive narrative tying the changed results to mechanical and approach changes that were very radical.

          I think Pearce’s narrative isn’t quite as clear cut, but there’s quite a lot of old newspaper articles, and stuff on the internet to suggest that something of note happened. The key themes seem to be increased swing rate, aggressive earlier in the count, a shortened stride and then observed results of more success against fastballs (early count pitches) and balls up in the zone.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Bautista is an okay example… He went from 15 homers to 54 homers… Pearce went from 14 homers (minor league power) to 21. If Pearce hits 18 homers, I’d consider it a success for him, but I wouldn’t consider it terrific for fantasy… For fantasy, Pearce will have to hit more than his seemingly breakout…

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
            (link)

            @GhostTownSteve: Newspaper articles? *checks Pearce’s age again* You had me worried there for a second…

            If Pearce hits settles into the 2nd spot in the lineup, he should continue to see a high percentage of fastballs. If he hits 5th, might see some more offspeed stuff, but could see a nice uptick in RBIs. It’s tough to quantify the difference that any mechanical changes made in his overall numbers, but he certainly seemed to flip a switch when he altered his batting stance.

            I don’t remember discussing Pearce with you last season, but it looks like we’re on the same page with him. Good stuff.

            • GhostTownSteve says:
              (link)

              @Big Magoo:

              Another one of my premises is that any really good scouting is an alchemy between qualitative and quantitative. You’re looking for intersections between the two. I’m kind of with Grey a little bit in that I think the value in owning him was last year. I’d be willing to bet that he climbs up draft boards. He’s going to get a lot of ink when draft season comes around. I don’t think we’re going to see production that exceeds what he showed last year but I do believe in talent level. He’s not a jackpot Bautista waiting to happen, that wasn’t my point in the comp. I think he’ll be one of those sleepers who’s sleeper status takes all the value out of the pick.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Gotcha, fair enough with the Bautista comp… I was only saying even if Bautista came down after hitting 50 HRs, he wasn’t coming back to 15 again. Whereas with Pearce, if he comes down even slightly, then you have an iffy UTIL guy on your team

  29. Bye Felicia says:
    (link)

    1st seems much deeper than 3rd this season. There’s some sexy late round upside at both corners

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      It is deeper

      • JeF With 1 F says:
        (link)

        @Grey: thats what she said

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          You need to get back in your wife’s good graces, think of the kids!

          • JeF With 1 F says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Ha Ha

  30. Mike Honcho says:
    (link)

    12 Team Mixed Keeper League
    My Existing Keepers are: Trout/Cespedes/Rizzo
    Can keep 2 new keepers out of: Soler, Lucroy, A. Wood, Archer, and L. Lynn
    I’m keeping Soler and I share the disdain for the catcher position, so do I move to a SP? It’s for a 3 year contract. Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Wood

      • Mike Honcho says:
        (link)

        Thanks, until next time.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  31. Tyler says:
    (link)

    Grey, thanks for the early projections! Who do you think is your 2015 Goldschmidt when you projected Goldy two years ago to breakout? Someone drafted after round 3/ will put up huge power and RBI/ finish the year as a top 10 player. Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      No problem… I ranked Goldy much higher than others that year, liking him a lot more… I’m not entirely sure how others are ranking yet… Rizzo seems much higher in my rankings, but depends on ESPN, Yahoo and CBS…

    • goodfold2 says:
      (link)

      @Tyler: goldy was like yahoo ADP of 42nd that year or so. so HUGE call, obv.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Yeah, but what’s Rizzo, I don’t know, seriously asking

        • Tyler says:
          (link)

          @Grey: I honestly don’t know? I looked around for other 2015 rankings, and no surprise that there is not really anything firm around the webs. I would be surprised if he was ranked outside the top 25-30 anywhere. Another quick question….Have you or Rudy ever done an analysis on player contract year/success rates? That sounds like something Rudy would have explored. Thanks again.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            I don’t think we have, but I also don’t think there’s anything to it… Mostly ancedotal

          • i’ve never looked at contract years but i feel like i’ve read something that they had no impact. reality now is that so many players get extensions before they reach free agency. i can think of a number of guys who did nothing special (compared to their baselines) prior to becoming free agents – pujols and hamilton come to mind…

            • Tyler says:
              (link)

              @Rudy Gamble: Good info Rudy&Grey…Thanks for the reply and good to see you on the thread Rudy!

            • GhostTownSteve says:
              (link)

              @Rudy Gamble:

              Contract year is a classic case of confirmation bias. Sophomore slump is another one. Because the narrative is strong and resonant and has an apparent logic, it’s easy to believe such a premise. When examples present themselves, we remember them. We forgot the counter-examples because they don’t confirm to the bias. Data has never correlated either contract year or sophomore jinx.

            • goodfold2 says:
              (link)

              @Rudy Gamble: per Baseball Forecaster (pg 18) article there isn’t significant proof of players playing better in order to get big contracts, however there is evidence at 49% of pitchers and 47% of hitters do in fact lose 15% or more of their value AFTER signing a big deal.

        • Bye Felicia says:
          (link)

          @Grey: ESPN has Rizzo 15th

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            That eliminates any huge value there… What about Rendon?

            • Bye Felicia says:
              (link)

              @Grey: 21st

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Arenado?

                • Bye Felicia says:
                  (link)

                  @Grey: 95th heh

        • Wake Up says:
          (link)

          @Grey: early 2nd…

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            No huge bargain there

            • Wake Up says:
              (link)

              @Grey:
              Rendon…early 2nd

              Arenado…5th

              Pearce…18th

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Arenado sounds like good value!

                • Wake Up says:
                  (link)

                  @Grey: agreed

            • Wake Up says:
              (link)

              @Grey: Freeman…40’s

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Hunh. Surprised by that…

      • Tyler says:
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        @goodfold2: Agreed….That was a huge part of my success that season.

  32. dem ribbies says:
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    Votto $3 and Frazier $3 for Arenado $5 or is that a smidge too much?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah a bit, unless you can’t keep two

  33. The Fifth Girl says:
    (link)

    Mauer. Pfffft! What the hell is bilateral leg weakness, anyways? And yet I keep going back. I had him everywhere last year thinking that I could get more AB’s at C with him playing 1B and not have to swap guys in and out at C just to get AB’s and counting stats.

    But now I’ve learned – took me long enough!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      He’s cute, I get it

  34. Clint says:
    (link)

    So do you have a favorite tier of guys you find yourself liking the most to target Grey?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      With 1st basemen, you need a top one

  35. King Friedman says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey – which of these guys would you give the biggest boost/target in OPS leagues? Off the top of your head..

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      OPS rankings will be around in Feb.

  36. Johnny Drama says:
    (link)

    12 team h2h 5×5 espn standard
    Keep 7 ($5 inflation)

    Currently keeping: Trout, Goldy, Puig, Dee, Wong, Polanco. I have plenty of capable pitchers for the seventh spot. Is this worth getting my hands on soler power?

    My: Goldschmidt ($24)
    for
    Hanley ($28) and Soler ($6)

    Thanks!

    • Bye Felicia says:
      (link)

      @Johnny Drama: I want Goldy there all day

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Goldy side

  37. Cram It says:
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    Question: Leaving a note on a woman’s car, who doesn’t know you and works in the building across from you, stating that you’d like to meet up for lunch….charming and romantic gesture or creepy?

    • Cram It says:
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      @Cram It: Crap, wrong website. Blueball.com, Cram!

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Ha

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Cram It: just get drunk and ask her out like the rest of us

      • Cram It says:
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        @J-FOH: That would be preferred. I ‘m not going to get drunk at work, then stand by her car in the dark, waiting for her to come out.

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Cram It: wake has a good point. You could try the old hang some brain out and see if she takes the hint.

    • Wake Up says:
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      @Cram It: Break in…and leave it on the inside of the windshield…

      • JeF With 1 F says:
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        @Wake Up: Ha Ha

      • Cram It says:
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        @Wake Up: Oh I like that. I’ll try to cut myself on the glass and leave some droplets of blood for that extra touch.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Creepy

    • JeF With 1 F says:
      (link)

      @Cram It: Just go up to her and say..Fuck me…DO IT

    • GhostTownSteve says:
      (link)

      @Cram It:

      Leave a microscopic ding on her door and then leave a note apologizing with your name and phone number to exchange insurance details. She calls to say no big deal it’s not noticable. You look like a stand up guy. Then you casually run into her on a different occasion….”Oh is this your car? I work in the building across the street.”

      This is how I met 2 of my 7 former wives.

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @GhostTownSteve: sociopath style. I love it! *pulls out little black book, takes notes*

  38. Mostsuckass says:
    (link)

    I’ve got a deep keeper league question. I’ve got most of my 22-man roster set, but the last three places are up for grabs. Given that there are no salaries and no roster restrictions, and based on pure value (not worrying too much about overall roster composition), which three of these players would you keep?

    Chase Anderson
    Rubby De La Rosa
    Gavin Floyd
    Matt Garza
    Jason Hammel
    Raul A. Mondesi
    Mike Mostsuckass
    Kohl Stewart
    Nick Tropeano

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hammel, Mostuckass, Anderson

      • Mostsuckass says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Thanks, Grey!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  39. UL's Toothpick says:
    (link)

    A scout told me the league had moved in the direction of moving guys up the ladder and umps are giving the higher pitch – right under the “titties” was his quote. Pearce is reported to be a high ball hitter So maybe this league trend fits for him.

    Adderral is the drug of choice for college students. Another parent told me it was rampant. He found out his son took when he sat for ths ACT and SAT. It is suppose to put one in the zone and create high level of focus. Makes sense MLB dudes would want it.

    • GhostTownSteve says:
      (link)

      @UL’s Toothpick:

      Fangraphs reported this as well. And commented on how the Royals got him out by pounding the zone down. A league of adjustments, as Madden used to say about football…and may still.

      • UL's Toothpick says:
        (link)

        @GhostTownSteve:

        Ironic, this guy is tied to the Royals. I was asking him about Mad-bum and the WS. he gave me a brief history of Mad-Bum’s motion – the Giants initially tried to change him to more over the top and speed him up. Bum’s motion is slower and, in his opinion, provided him a level deception against the Royals. The ball got on the hitters quick due to the slower arm action and the arm slot. He got early swings then he walked them up…

        • GhostTownSteve says:
          (link)

          @UL’s Toothpick:

          Cool. Nice insider view. Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      That makes sense on Adderall… I dont buy the other thing on Pearce…

      • UL's Toothpick says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        I got Pearce in that 15 team NFBC draft in round 18. I will use him as OF or stream with Belt at first base. I wanted the dual eligibility at that point. I like him in this role.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          That’s not a bad price for him…

        • GhostTownSteve says:
          (link)

          @UL’s Toothpick:

          Do you have a full NFBC DC team drafted? Would you mind pasting it here. I’d love to have a look.

          I just signed up for the auction championship. I think it’ll be my only league this year.

          • UL's Toothpick says:
            (link)

            @GhostTownSteve:

            DC Express 15 team drafted in a league Todd Zola posted about. I just jumped in last Friday.

            C; Ruiz, Salty, Cervelli, Susac
            1B; Belt
            3B; Donaldson, Uribe, DJ Peterson
            CI; Arenado
            SS; A Escobar, Suarez
            2nd; Bonifacio, Panik
            MI; Schoop, Ev Cabrerra
            OF; Stanton, Puig, S Pearce, A Eaton, O Arcia, M Bourn, Marisnick, Maybin, B Brentz
            Util; Napoli

            Starters (1-7); Cobb, Arrietta, Carrasco, Shields, F Liriano, Pineda, Corbin
            Starters (8-17); Colome, Bundy, AJ Cole, Delgado, D Hale, C Rasmus, D Norris, R Montero, A Nola, Webster

            RPs; K Jansen, F Rodriguez, Motte, Jepsen, Hunter, Hochevar, Machi

            • UL's Toothpick says:
              (link)

              @UL’s Toothpick:

              Did not draft a started until Cobb in Round 6.

  40. the_swinging says:
    (link)

    King grey the perfect one, I kneel to you. But not in a homosexual way.

    Praise the god for fantasy baseball rankings. Ahhhhhmennnnnn! ?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha, you’re welcome!

  41. Surgeo says:
    (link)

    I thank you for all of your insight! Just wondering if you have any blogs geared more towards salary cap (cdm) strategies?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      We’ll have auction values in Feb.

  42. Matt says:
    (link)

    Where would you slot Big Papi in these rankings? He is eligible for 1b in 2015 in my league.

    Also, have you heard anything about Votto’s recovery? Hoping to nab him at a discount in my auction league (obp 6th category) if he looks good in ST

    • Matt says:
      (link)

      @Matt: AH my bad disregard the Papi question saw the comment too late

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Papi is around Posey’s spot… I wouldn’t trust Votto to be healthy no matter what anyone says…

  43. joet says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    Your thoughts, please.

    How would you rank Holliday, Bruce, J D Mart?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’ll rank OFs

  44. Teddy Heater says:
    (link)

    Wet Tail! Cap tip to Jef with 1 F
    Bob Ney Freedom Fries! That shiz is Classic, you’re such a well rounded idividual!
    So quick story…. I was pitching the Milk Bar cook book to the wife ( let’s call her Bug moving forward, her name is Kelly, but Bug is less to type, shortest nickname I could close her on)
    Before I could finish she was like, “I just ordered it”
    I tried to get into the Crack pie, but she was, ” like it’ll be here in 2 days we can go through it then”.
    So after that she handed me a post it and it said “Damages” netflix
    I’m thinking “WTF is this? Brain Damaged caused by Fantasy Baseball? What are we talking about?”
    Calmly, She goes, “Someone at work said that this is a really good show on Netflix”
    Intrigued, I said “sounds good we’ll have to check it out, ohhhhh, by the way…… coincidentally Grey suggested a show on Netfix today”
    Bug, “Oh yeah? What’s it called?”
    Me, “The Returned, but there’s only one problem….. it’s in subtitles”
    Surprisingly she perks up and says, “Ok, Grey’s Trailer polished like us, so what are we talking? What language are the subtitles in?”
    I respond with 1 word, “Freedom”
    Bug, “Freedom? I thought the show was called The Returned?”
    Me, “Yeah, it’s called The Return and it’s subtitled in FRREEDOM!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha! I wanna double date with you and Bug!

      • Teddy Heater says:
        (link)

        @Grey:We’re in, our treat. I make a Mean Ass Beef Wellington and I appreciate American Whiskey! We have 3 rescue dogs and our Xmas Card was epic this year. 2 French Bulldogs and a Black Pig dressed up as Darth Vader, Chewy and Yoda with Light Sabers! Side note (the dogs only get dressed up once a year for a themed card)
        I told Bug you wanted to do dinner and she was like, “You don’t have Grey’s number? How you talk about him I thought you guys were BFF’s”
        I had to explain the whole crazy people thing on the site and she was like “ohhhhh yeah, we don’t do Facebook so we’re out of the loop”

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          And I love French Bulldogs, how are we not BFFs?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Oh and Star Wars!

          • Teddy Heater says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Ha! You have to attend a Wii Bowling Tournament to get in the BFF zone. The shiz is legit, $20 dollar buy in, 16 person bracket, the shiz gets real when money’s involved! We require a signed waiver before we start cause mofo’s are SERIOUS about their Wii bowling, Street Cred Son!!! The dogs/babies are in casual wear, collars only. The Star Wars costumes are shelved, but the collectors Light Saber will make an appearance at some point in the night, as long as everyone is hammered!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              I want in!

              • Teddy Heater says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Done! It’s gonna be mid February a week of two after Superbowl.

  45. I’ve been reading this site everyday for the better half of two years and absolutely love the humor…but after a while I have learned a little about what remarks are coming and I can hold my chuckles in in while reading the site during my morning meeting.

    Not today and not the Meatloaf reference. Water shot out of my nose I was laughing so hard.

    Thanks again for the rankings and the great humor!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha, no problem

  46. MB says:
    (link)

    You like Zobrist enough to trade Semien for him in dynasty? Thank you

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nope

  47. Lee says:
    (link)

    Where would you slot Ortiz in here since he will have 1B eligibility in yahoo? Thanks!

  48. Fastpitch says:
    (link)

    Posey

  49. The Theory says:
    (link)

    Well. The good news is that there are 7 fairly capable 1st basemen.

    The bad news is that I can’t imagine any of them being steals on draft day. Gotta draft them quick (or, pay the price for you auction-folk), or you’re going to be hurting.

    While it looks like any of 8-20 could be top-12 options, it’s going to be a craps shoot on who it’s going to be. I’d rather not. Most likely it’ll be that person on waivers who has a hot 2 week stretch that totally skews their season stats, and by the time someone picks them up, the clock will strike midnight and they’ll revert into the 0-fer pumpkin.

    I can already tell I’m going to hate fantasy baseball this year.

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