Here’s a prospect post that even a redraft leaguer can love. At Razzball there are a lot of great tools, but the one I use the most when looking at potential trades or player acquisitions is the player rater. It’s basically a way to evaluate players based on Steamer’s projections for the rest of the year. What makes it particularly useful is the fact that it’s also updated daily by Rudy to account for playing time changes, lineup changes, injuries, etc. I thought it would be fun to look at how our rookies are faring in the machine. I found 54 players in the rater who were under the 130 AB/50 IP cutoff to start the year. Then I sorted into three subcategories for the hell of it. I’m sure I’ve forgotten a couple of names (hopefully no big ones) and there’s probably nothing incredibly enlightening to glean from this (Correa is good at baseball and projects to be good at baseball in the second half…thanks Mike!). But…there were some surprises for me when I gathered it together. At any rate, hopefully it spurs some discussion and provides a snapshot for the massive wave of quality prospects we’re seeing reach the majors in 2015.
2015 Rookies: Highest Rest-of-Season (ROS) Value
This first table is pretty simple. Which rookies have the most value going forward? This is the top 20+ sorted by $ROS.
|Jung Ho Kang||INF||PIT||-2.6|
Bryant, Sano, and Correa are no surprise, but I’m pretty happy to see Franco up there. Soler has been disappointing but still projects to be solid in the second half. A name that jumps out at me on this list is Grichuk. I ranked him 4th on the pre-season Cardinals Top 10, but I didn’t see this coming. He’s already surpassed his preseason projection for homers! Magoo did a great job breaking him down yesterday. I guess the big question marks for me are still his strikeout rate and playing time, but that power has been tasty. Oh, and I see you Jake Lamb.
Largest Difference (DIF) Between Preseason (PRE) and Rest-of-Season (ROS) Values
This table is more quirky than the first. I went back to the preseason player rater and then ranked by the difference between each player’s projections prior to the season and their projections for the remainder of it.
Even with a -11 projection for the rest of the season, Heston has been a really nice surprise. I had to double-check that he was even eligible. An interesting tidbit from this table is the fact that Bryant is pretty much matching the high expectations set for him at the beginning of the season (20.1 value season-to-date) and the projection seems to think he’ll keep it up and then some in the second half. Jungmann and Wisler aren’t flashy, but they’re getting the job done and have proven valuable as streamers and deep-league starters. My personal fave from this table though is DeShields. The Rangers got him off the scrap heap in the Rule 5 draft and he’s basically an everyday outfielder (and leadoff hitter!) now. He’s been a godsend to a lot of fantasy teams, especially where he still carries middle infield eligibility. There’s Grichuk again!
2015 Rookies Not In Preseason Rater
This table is fun. These are the names I couldn’t find in the preseason rater, but who have come up in the bigs and are contributing value of some kind. I guess you could say it’s a list of the biggest “surprises”. They’re ranked by their ROS value.
|Jung Ho Kang||INF||PIT||–||-2.6|
Many interesting names on this list like McCullers, Tucker, Ross, and Johnson – players I didn’t even have on my radar for the prospect lists let alone contributing this much value in 2015. I was surprised to see Russell with such a low ROS projection compared to Lindor, but when you consider their positions in their respective lineups it makes sense. Osuna is another fun one. He was a prospect with #3 starter upside but now finds himself getting saves for the Blue Jays and fantasy owners…just like we drew it up!