Remember that one girl who was willing to touch you about ten years ago? Remember how desperately you tried to hold onto her and how futile an attempt that was? Eventually that girl started feeling suffocated and then no more touching for you, only shame and disappointment. Sorry to the five girl readers, this analogy might not be fully relatable, but stick with me.

The point here is, if you hadn’t become so clingy, things might have turned out differently with that one girl, or with your love life in general. Well, probably not since you’re a hopeless fantasy baseballer who still lives in his mom’s basement, but there was at least a chance if you hadn’t been so obsessive.

What does all of this have to do with fantasy baseball you ask? Good question. I like your style. I’m saying all of this because I don’t want Mark Trumbo to become that one girl for your fantasy baseball team this season.

One of the most important skills that separates winning fantasy players from those that will live in their mom’s basement forever is the willingness to cut bait on a guy and not look back. This can be an extremely difficult proposition for some, especially those that drafted their teams in February and have been rosterbaiting vigorously for over a month by the time opening day rolls around. The mental fixation and attachment to players can severely impede judgment and rational thinking.

As an exercise to help loosen the attachment and open the mind, let’s look at some of this previous season’s top performers, which were available on the wire last April in shallower and even many deeper leagues…

Starting Pitcher 2017 Razzball Year End Player Rater Ranking (Pitchers) 2017 NFBC ADP
Luis Severino 9 350
Alex Wood 13 352
Gio Gonzalez 15 285
Ervin Santana 17 320
Brad Peacock 26 714
Chase Anderson 27 612
Charlie Morton 29 392
Jimmy Nelson 30 498
Trevor Bauer 34 310
Mike Clevinger 46 659
Zack Godley 49 709

 

Hitter 2017 Razzball Year End
Player Rater Ranking (Hitters)
2017 NFBC ADP
Aaron Judge 3 343
Ryan Zimmerman 20 389
Tommy Pham 24 659
Whit Merrifield 25 477
Cody Bellinger 26 436
Domingo Santana 33 255
Travis Shaw 34 303
Justin Smoak 44 540
Scooter Gennett 46 469
Chris Taylor 49 656

If you had the testicular fortitude to cut Mark Trumbo (2017 ADP 74), Hanley Ramirez (2017 ADP 79), Cole Hamels (2017 ADP 82) and Danny Duffy (2017 ADP 96) for Ryan Zimmerman, Aaron Judge, Luis Severino and Gio Gonzalez last year, then you probably won your league. Of course, cutting those top 100 picks early in the season is a little much to ask, but I wanted to make the point that we shouldn’t become overly attached to early round players either.

That said, it’s also important not to overreact to the first couple weeks of the season by hastily cutting your studs. There’s a very delicate balance here, which can only be found through years of toiling in your mom’s basement. Even then, we’re still going to be wrong a decent portion of the time. Remember, it’s not important to be right all the time; we just need to be right a little more often than we’re wrong.

Also, note that in recent seasons it’s become more common to land elite offensive statistics via the waiver wire. Traditionally, finding quality pitchers on the wire has been a well-known strategy; those arms tend to come out of the woodwork every year. The emerging of top-end bats once the season has begun just might be a new developing trend. If so, those fantasy players willing to adapt to the new landscape quickest stand to benefit the most.

In 2015, exactly zero of the top 35 fantasy hitters at years end were drafted with an NFBC ADP of 200 or later, and only four of the top 50 fantasy hitters had a 200+ ADP (Morales, Eaton, Granderson & Duffy). Matt Duffy was the only of these four players being drafted after pick 300.

In 2016 two of the top 35 fantasy hitters at years end were drafted with an NFBC ADP of 200 or later (Villar & Segura), and only four of the top 50 fantasy hitters had a 200+ ADP (Villar, Segura, Nunez & Bradley). Villar, Nunez and Bradley were all being drafted after pick 300.

As shown in the above table, 2017 saw seven of the top 35 fantasy hitters at years end drafted with an ADP of 200 or later and ten of the top 50 fantasy hitters had a 200+ ADP. A whopping nine of these players were being drafted after pick 300 and six of those after pick 400!

Will this trend continue in 2018? I’m banking on it! It’s one of several reasons why I’ve been more prone than ever to spend up for a fantasy ace this season. Regardless, be sure not to ignore hitters while searching for the waiver wire diamonds in the rough.

As the season gets underway, don’t hesitate to cut bait on some of the slow starters on the back end of your roster for guys that get off to hot starts. There’s plenty of fish in the sea, and who knows, there’s a chance you’ll hook this years Aaron Judge, Luis Severino or maybe even a second girl willing to touch you. And wouldn’t that be nearly as good as a fantasy title?

 

 

Written by Donkey Teeth. @donkeyteeth87 on Twitter. Co-Host of Ditka, Sausage, and Fantasy Sports Podcast hosted by LennyMelnickFantasySports.com

  1. Grey

    Grey says:
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    Nicely done, Donkey Teeth!

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      @Grey: Thank you, sir! You may have noticed there’s a strong Grey Albright influence in my writing!

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        I’ve always said, Donkey Teeth is strong with the Grey.

  2. rgsmithiv says:
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    this is awesome, thanks

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      @rgsmithiv: Thanks, glad you enjoyed!

      • Brutus The Barber says:
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        @Donkey Teeth: ohhh, I hope you have a huge set of choppers and are owning it with that name.

        Good article. Keep’em coming.

  3. Robpopp says:
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    Lol yes. Great stuff. On a similar note, I may have drafted my girlfriend a few rounds too soon, think I should drop her for a hot schmotato, or a zombino!?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hahaha

      • Donkey Teeth

        Donkey Teeth says:
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        @Grey: I’d lean hot schmotato. From my experience, there’s usually a good reason the zombinos haven’t been claimed yet.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Donkey Teeth, your words are like droplets of wisdom like James Earl Jones or Morgan Freeman’s mouth (they share one)

          • Donkey Teeth

            Donkey Teeth says:
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            @Grey: You make Donkey blush.

            Have you seen the new Starz show “Counterpart”? I’m pretty sure James Earl Jones and Morgan Freeman are each other’s counterparts. Great show btw.

  4. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph says:
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    Donkey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Watch your fingers around Donkey Teeth

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Grey:The guy in front of me on this flight has horrific gas.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Sounds like Josh Tomlin

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      @Ralph: Prospect Jesus! My man!

  5. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Solid stuff Mr. Teeth

    I love spending time in the rough looking for my next diamond..

  6. Alex says:
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    Who do you feel has the chance to be this years breakouts so far?

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      @Alex: Obviously it’s still really early but I like what I’ve seen from Yonder Alonso, Brian Anderson, Jose Pirela, Patrick Corbin and Mike Foltynewicz so far. Ride em while they’re hot and see if they can keep it up.

      • Alex says:
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        @Donkey Teeth:

        Yeah Corbin looked downright filthy when his slider is on like today no one touched him

    • geeorge says:
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      @Alex: indingo montoya

  7. Drrogera says:
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    I grabbed 7of those 10 low ADP batters during the year. Of my 25 starting draft picks only 4 we’re still on my team at the end. Yes, I did win it all! (With significant help from the Streamonator!)

    Good analysis for those already panicking.

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      @Drrogera: Well done!!

      • Roger Anderson says:
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        @Donkey Teeth: For this year I am currently watching Scott Kingery, Preston Tucker, and Drew Robinson.

        • Donkey Teeth

          Donkey Teeth says:
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          @Roger Anderson: I think those are all interesting names. Tucker and Robinson do have Acuna and Calhoun lurking though…

          • Roger Anderson says:
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            @Donkey Teeth: Exactly, Tucker and Robinson are playing for their lives. When Calhoun comes up, I will drop Robinson like an old worn out glove

  8. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    so true,ive been in love with Delino for 3 years and now Peraza for 2

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      @AL KOHOLIC: I’m a speed whore, fear of commitment…

  9. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Hey forgot to say great title. Hold on loosely..

    38 Special

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      @Malicious Phenoms: If you cling too tightly you’re gonna lose control

  10. J-FOH says:
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    It’s rare for Grey to find a new writer that makes me want to click. Last year Laura blew us all away and Lance is just too adorable to pass up. You are my new favorite, of the new guys, I will call you Dientes de el Burro. I love the concept here, I always look at fantasy with a set of philosophies and preach the concept of non-attachment. I think I picked it up in my ancient India history course from college. Some confusing folktales we had to read. Sorry, getting side tracked, as someone who once wrote for Grey I envy you getting to write like this. I look forward to next week like I look forward Judge at bats and Kershaw starts

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @J-FOH: He’s another Ralpherral… ABS… Always Be Scouting!

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: This is going to be some weird Bill Parcells/Bill Walsh coaching tree one day here. From Sky to Me to you to magoo to truss. Its a gorgeous oak with a strong trunk

        • Donkey Teeth

          Donkey Teeth says:
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          @J-FOH: When Ralph discovered me I was living under a bridge, drinking my meals and muttering gibberish about the angle of Rhys Hoskins’ dangle. Look at me now!

          But seriously, that’s some high praise and much appreciated. I hope I can live up to your expectations!

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Donkey Teeth: you have a nice approach at the post. Already showing some long ball skills. Now let’s see if you have the legs to swipe 25 bags

  11. Trust The Process says:
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    Donkey! Awesome stuff… I’m in complete rebuild mode .. Letting nothing but young kids w upside play… while stashing an awesome farm…. Anderson and Robinson are both available… (I have Calhoun stashed) … I have Franco, Soler, Mallex Smith as maybe let loosable … 12 team Roto.. Whatcha think

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      @Trust The Process: If it were me I would probably use the Franco and Soler spots both for speculative adds. I’m not big on either of them, especially in a 12 teamer. I think Anderson is worth a shot to see if you can catch lightning in a bottle, but I’m skeptical whether Robinson will ever be a real 12 team asset.

  12. bamsnap says:
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    Been riding this mini hot-streak with Pillar and not sure how much stock to put into it. He feels like a guy who starts hot every year and falls back to mediocrity. Don’t have a strong need for his steals. You think I should hold or drop him for Brantley who is due back Friday. Brantley’s numbers in only 90 games last year were pretty impressive if projected out over a (hopefully) healthy 400-450 ABs.

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      @bamsnap: I’d stick with Pillar while he’s hot, move on when he’s not. Sounds like a shallower league so there should be decent options if and when the time comes.

  13. Rosscoe says:
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    Overreact!!!

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      @Rosscoe: Tis the season!

  14. The Great Knoche says:
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    Good stuff. Enjoyed the humor and writing style, But let’s be serious, most of the people floating around here haven’t had a girl that wanted to touch them in longer than ten years. At least the ones that have actually moved out of Mom’s basement.

    Candelario, Carlos Villanueva, and Dansby could be those guys later this year. Maybe the ones at the bottom of the list anyway.

  15. Grey

    Grey says:
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    Yo, Donkey Teeth, don’t become more popular than me, thanks!

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      @Grey: There will always be room in my entourage for the Fantasy Master Lothario.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        And you can sweet talk me? Damn, Teeth!

Comments are closed.