As always, probable pitchers are subject to change.  For a look at all fantasy baseball streamers, click that link.

I did some soul-searching math the other day, and I determined that 54 percent of the time, I’m right every time. But that benchmark of psychic-level foresight seems to no longer be reachable in these turbulent times. Although a few recent stumbles have me questioning myself a bit lately, there are some things I do know for sure. Taking a page out of Jimmy Fallon’s playbook, I give you my “True Facts of Truth” for the 2014 Fantasy Baseball Season:

1) Something (Bigger crackdown on P.E.D.’s? Climate change? More tightly wound balls?) has sapped the power out of guys who used to have power. Robinson Cano, Billy Butler, Jedd Gyorko and Evan Longoria are among those who have experienced major power outages.

2) Roughly 32 percent of all adult males get excited when they see Matt Adams rub a bat between his moobs, but only 30 percent will admit to it (Cards’ fans).

3) Something (Bigger crackdown on P.E.D.’s? Climate change? Less tightly wound balls?) and not something else (kids throwing curveballs too early) has made Dr. James Andrews and very busy man and caused carpel tunnel issues for whoever types up the disabled list section of the transactions that run in newspaper sports sections.

4) The “R.A.” in R.A. Dickey stands for “Really Acting”.

5) Guys who were aces heading into the season (Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, Gerrit Cole, Gio Gonzalez, Homer Bailey) are not aces in 2014, and therefore not automatic green lights as two-start pitchers.

6) Guys who were not aces heading into the season (Johnny Cueto, Dallas Keuchel, Phil Hughes, Tim Hudson, Mark Buehrle, Josh Beckett) are pitching like aces and becoming dang near must-starts as two-start pitchers.

7) In cricket, the game of pepper is called “circle jerk.”

8) When in doubt, go with the Stream-O-Nator.

9) If you’re still not sold, look at a dude’s K/BB per game ratio.

10) Ronald Belisario is actually 61 years old.

Maybe you saw something in the list you can use and apply to the rankings below. Or maybe you saw some things that have you questioning the future of the human race. Regardless, let the Two-Startapalooza begin!

Must Start

Max Scherzer (KC, @CLE), Masahiro Tanaka (TOR, BAL), Johnny Cueto (@PIT, TOR)

Mad Max has been Max Money as of late. PNC Park has been one of the hardest places to hit dongs this year, so I like Cueto in the Steel City. Admittedly, his start against the Jays at home scares me a little, but so do evil clowns and the two main guys in Steely Dan.

First Tier

Cole Hamels (@ATL, @STL), Julio Teheran (PHI, @WAS), Michael Wacha (NYM, PHI), Adam Wainwright (NYM, PHI), Dallas Keuchel (@WAS, @TB)

I can’t see too well – is that Vincent D’Onofrio or Dallas Keuchel who’s been dominating as a pitcher for the lowly Houston Astros in 2014? Indeed, Big D has been going all “Full Metal Jacket” on the AL this year, going deep in games, racking up a steady stream of strikeouts and blowing away quality opponents regardless of the setting. Over the past month, he’s blanked Seattle in Seattle and Texas at home, tamed the Tigers in Detroit and nearly went the distance against the Angels in Anaheim. You can look at those matchups and say maybe the Washington one is tough, but how much tougher is it than the four aforementioned starts? Meanwhile, I’ve got Wainwright penciled in up here because the most recent news was that he’d probably make the start Monday against the Mess, but I can’t think of any good reason why you’d run your best pitcher out there with all of the injuries taking dudes down. Heck, it might be contagious!

Second Tier

Tanner Roark (HOU, ATL), Jon Lester (MIN, @OAK), Hyun-Jin Ryu (COL, @SD), Marcus Stroman (@NYY, @CIN), Justin Verlander (KC, @CLE), Kyle Lohse (@ARI, @COL), Phil Hughes (@BOS, CWS), Wei-Yin Chen (@TB, @NYY), Yordano Ventura (@DET, SEA), Jonathon Niese (@STL, @MIA), Jacob Turner (CHC, NYM), Jason Hammel (@MIA, PIT), Tyson Ross (@SEA, LAD), Jake Odorizzi (BAL, HOU), Ervin Santana (PHI, @WAS), Wily Peralta (@ARI, @COL)

We bang on ESPN pretty hard here, but I’m giving some props to the writer who’s putting his balls on the line for Justin Verlander. That doesn’t mean I share his opinion. In fact, I’d have him lower if it wasn’t for his weak opponents and the chance that he figures it out. Oddly enough, the guy who was supposed to be modeling himself after Verlander – Yordano Ventura – is actually out-Verlandering Verlander. Since returning from the arm scare where many marked him down as done for the year, Yordano has turned in two quality-start wins where he eased up on the throttle and ditched the strikeouts for some regular old outs.

Third Tier

Roenis Elias (SD, @KC), Tyler Matzek (@LAD, MIL), Trevor Bauer (LAA, DET), Drew Pomeranz (TEX, BOS), Jason Vargas (@DET, SEA), Tom Koehler (CHC, NYM), Josh Tomlin (LAA, DET), Rubby De La Rosa (MIN, @OAK), Jacob deGrom (@STL, @MIA), Brandon Cumpton (CIN, @CHC), John Danks (SF, @MIN), Chris Young (SD, @KC), Jered Weaver (@CLE, TEX), Tommy Milone (TEX, BOS), Erik Bedard (BAL, HOU), Eric Stults (@SEA, LAD), Kyle Kendrick (@ATL, @STL), Matt Shoemaker (@CLE, TEX)

He’s been solid, but deGrom is getting a lot of lovin’ this week for a guy with no wins, two straight starts where he left in the fifth and two road starts in some not-so-easy parks (@STL can be particularly annoying in soup-like heat, and @MIA is no longer a gimme). It must be the fantastic mullet he’s rocking. If you’re desperate and feeling lucky, you could roll with Roenis this week. He’s shown flashes, and those are some great matchups.

Don’t Start

Brandon McCarthy (MIL, SF), Kevin Correia (@BOS, CHW), Wade Miley (MIL, SF), Colby Lewis (@OAK, @LAA)

The Four Horsemen of the Fantasy Baseball Apocalypse.

45 Comments
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LeSean White
LeSean White
8 years ago

Just dropped Hudson to pick up Heaney in an auction keeper league…Am I an idiot for doing so?

Teddy Heater
Teddy Heater
8 years ago

Pete,
I think that the fantasy overlord is still holding my bats for ransom, Cano, Longo, Bruce, Gordon, Hosmer & DL’d Gyorko. So I’ve been relying on your help in the pitching department, big shout out to you for the Cheat Sheet. My only question is Stroman this week you like him that much at NYY & Cincy?

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  Teddy Heater
8 years ago

@Teddy Heater: Obviously not as much @NYY but I’d roll with him. I like that he doesn’t walk anybody.

smalls killer
smalls killer
8 years ago

SON really likes Mccarthy for his 1st game. Still bench?

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  smalls killer
8 years ago

@smalls killer: SON has been wrong before. I usually trust it but is it really worth it to go out on a limb for McBarfy?

goodfold2
goodfold2
8 years ago

news is wainwright sits for carmart and that dark haired dude from radiohead (greenwood) on monday.

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  goodfold2
8 years ago

@goodfold2: radiohead blows. don’t start.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Pete Nice
8 years ago

@Pete Nice: just making sure people don’t think waino is 2 starter. i think the plan is for carmart/greenwood to go a few innings each, so no chance at carmart getting a win, nor QS.

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  goodfold2
8 years ago

@goodfold2: yep. i mentioned it in the notes that it wasn’t a definite but thanks for confirming.

JFK
JFK
8 years ago

In a 12-team H2H keeper, received the following offers for Cueto:

A) Cueto/Matty Carp/Machado/Derek Holland for E5/Kipnis/Homer Bailey/Jonathan Gray;
B) Cueto for Beltre/Simon
C)
D) Cueto/Crush Davis/Balfour (he might take Cueto/Matty Carp/Holland) for Rizzo/Keuchel/Tyson Ross

Cueto will be an 11th round keeper next season, which is partly why his stock is so high in this league (Keuchel would be a 27th rounder and Ross a 15th rounder).
Which of these do y’all like best?

Thanks!

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  JFK
8 years ago

@JFK: I don’t like any of em man. if this was Showcase Showdown I don’t see the NEW CAR!!!!!

Sange76
Sange76
8 years ago

12 team h2h weekly points keeper league

Drop Ian Kennedy for any of Ventura, Niese, Hammel, or Stroman? Or just roll with the Hodgepadre this week?

Rest of the staff is Hamels, cole, Beckett, Garrett Anderson, (5 sp max on roster, 7 starts in a week)

Thanks

Sange76
Sange76
Reply to  Sange76
8 years ago

@Sange76:

Ha. Meant Garrett Richards. Damn 2002 Angels…

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  Sange76
8 years ago

@Sange76: Kennedy although just one start. I could see using him. He just caught the Phils on a rare “on” night.

nick the dick
nick the dick
8 years ago

You like rubby start vs min better than pom vs tex yes?

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  nick the dick
8 years ago

@nick the dick: na I’d go Pom. it’s in Oakland so that helps.

AJ
AJ
8 years ago

Is it time to drop Paxton?

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  AJ
8 years ago

@AJ: if you don’t have a DL slot for him go for it.

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Pete Nice
8 years ago

@Pete Nice: He’s on my DL, so is Neil Walker. But I also have Altuve, Myers, Bonifacio and Yelich. All hurt

nick the dick
nick the dick
8 years ago

Yo pete wanna drop either eo or arch in my 10 team to stream who goes first?

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  nick the dick
8 years ago

@nick the dick: Eov. Schlub has the nerve to take paternity leave when he’s been “off” for the past month.

Mike
Mike
8 years ago

Do I drop any of these SPs for Matt Cain?

Alex Cobb
Anibal Sanchez
Doug Fister
Geritt Cole
Hyun-Jin Ryu
James Shields
Jon Lester
Zack Greinke

Maybe Cole or Lester but I am not sure.

Thanks!

Mike.

Malicious Phenom
Reply to  Mike
8 years ago

@Mike: why do you need Cain, all the SP’s you have are better than the 2014 Matt Cain..cheers

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  Mike
8 years ago

@Mike: again I agree with Phenom. Cain would be a buy low if you had junk to get rid of but not for any of those.

Peter Nincompoop
Peter Nincompoop
8 years ago

From one Pete to another, job well done. I got Teheran and Wacha in Tier I and then Ross and Peralt in Tier II. I’m worried a little bit about Peralta’s start @ Arizona, but I got this good ol’ fashioned feeling that the Rockies are going to do whatever it takes to bone him. I’m 96% sure he’ll be riding the pine for that one.

Quick question for you…I’m in a 10-team [email protected] keeper league and have Sale, Wacha, Teheran and Minor as potential pitching keepers. If one was an absolute keep and another absolute trade bait, who would they be. Have a good weekend.

Malicious Phenom
Reply to  Peter Nincompoop
8 years ago

@Peter Nincompoop: Sale = keep, Minor = trade

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  Peter Nincompoop
8 years ago

@Peter Nincompoop: Thanks man. agree.

Montezuma's Revenge... right now
Montezuma's Revenge... right now
Reply to  Pete Nice
8 years ago

@Pete Nice: set that horse free. away from those drug addict jockeys.

ram
ram
8 years ago

I am going to keep starting Verlander until at least Labour Day. He is killing me.

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  ram
8 years ago

@ram: Yea I mean I trot my guys out there more than I should. He’s just not a must-start anymore. You shouldn’t feel compelled to let him blow up your stats.

Robert
Robert
8 years ago

I need a streamer for Sunday, pick one please. [email protected] or Matsuzaka vs SD

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  Robert
8 years ago

@Robert: Matsuzaka

gareth
gareth
8 years ago

Would you say Archer is more of a streamer than a guy you keep on your team? His inconsistency, coupled with that ticker shock of a game today, has me considering dropping him.

I’m in a 12 team rcl by the way.

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  gareth
8 years ago

@gareth: he is maddening and that look on his face in his Yahoo profile photo is nauseating. I’d give him one or two starts to turn it around and then cut.

Halkster
Halkster
8 years ago

Need to cut two to stream… Need to start streaming
Possible cuts
Hector rondon
Eovaldi
Aramis (bogaerts 3b, Castro ss)
Betances

Leaning towards cutting rondon and eovaldi
To add Santiago for tmw pm
Then I can add Alex wood c Anderson stroman heaney
Whatcha think
Thanks

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  Halkster
8 years ago

@Halkster: I could see cutting Evo but he does have a nice matchup with the Cubs next week. Still, you’ve got options to replace him with so you’re good. Maybe Evo makes it through waivers in time to stream him against CHI

Symptom of the Universe
Symptom of the Universe
8 years ago

Would you cut Quintana for Colon or Smyly?

If I have Andrelton/Owings/Rendon/Lemahieu that can play middle infield spots and Brock Holt is available in free agency is it a 5-alarm fire priority move to finally dump the scourge of the Gyorko?

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  Symptom of the Universe
8 years ago

@Symptom of the Universe: I’d go either over Quintana but Colon Blow first. Don’t you have Jedd on DL? I’d personally cut DJ before Gyorko just in case he returns and does better. But I’ve dumped him in 12 teamer.

Symptom of the Universe
Symptom of the Universe
Reply to  Pete Nice
8 years ago

@Pete Nice:

No DL spot, in a 12 tm NFBC league with no trades, 2 C, 5 OF.

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  Symptom of the Universe
8 years ago

@Symptom of the Universe: yea I’d cut Gerkoffo then.

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
8 years ago

Pete!

Thank you for your good work and advice. Am back to starting to Cobb. Only have 1 2-start pitcher this week in each of my leagues so have to go with tried and true good 1-starters by looking at matchups and venues. Question: have Iwakuma for 1-start going up against Shields for his 1-start. Have both of those pitchers on my roster. Would you start one over the other? I’m starting neither to avoid the heartache of having one win and the other lose. Your thoughts of starting pitchers going against each other on the same team.

Cheers,
Ante

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  Ante GALIC
8 years ago

@Ante GALIC: if they’re both good why not start em both? It’ll probably a bit of a pitcher’s duel and you’ll get good counting stats from the one who doesn’t win.

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  Ante GALIC
8 years ago

@Ante GALIC: if they’re both good why not start em both? It’ll probably be a bit of a pitchers duel and the loser will end up with good stats.

Shoe Gum Reynolds
Shoe Gum Reynolds
8 years ago

I’m showing Tyson Ross has 2 (vs. Dodgers in SD and vs. Mariners in Sea). Going against Beckett and C.Young. Solid Tier 2? OR MAYBE EVEN BETTER.?!?!

Pete Nice
Pete Nice
Reply to  Shoe Gum Reynolds
8 years ago

@Shoe Gum Reynolds: Yeah left him off by accident. Upper Second Tier I say.