Welcome back for another week of Top Dynasty Keepers for 2025.
We’ve taken care of the pitchers and the catchers, so this week my attention turns to the infield and first baseman specifically. Overall, this is a pretty solid position, aided in part by a host of players who also play another position.
In a 12-team or 15-team league, you should be able to find a strong starting first baseman for your team. There are also solid players ranked in Tier 3 and there are quite a few players ranked in Tier 4 who have really good upside if you can get past their growing pains
With that said, let’s get on with the rankings.
Just Missing the Cut
The players below may have had a solid slash line, but they fell short of producing average power numbers or had decent power but had horrible slash lines.
I had high hopes for LaMonte Wade but he simply has not lived up to expectations. He slashed .262/.383/.386 this season, but in 114 games he hit only eight homers with 33 RBI, way below his 17 homer, 45 RBI output of 2023. At 31 next season, Wade is nothing more than a depth player at this point.
Jonah Bride’s slash line of .267/.347/.434 is above average compared to the average first baseman, but he had only nine homers and 33 RBI. That just isn’t great production from a backup first baseman.
Juan Yepez had lots of people excited after 2022 when he hit 12 homers and drove in 30 in 76 games with the Cardinals. But he fell off the cliff in 2023, appearing in only 28 games and slashing .183/.246/.300. But he rebounded somewhat this year with a .283/.335/.429 slash line in 62 games with the Nationals. But that came with only six homers and 26 RBI. He will be only 27 next year, so he could be someone to keep an eye on if the power production returns.
Jhonkensy Noel is listed here even though he does not qualify as a first baseman in most leagues, starting only four games at first base and appearing in nine games at the position overall. But if your league does allows him to be a first baseman or you are betting that he will get enough appearances at first in 2025, then move Noel up in the rankings to at least Tier 3 as he has great power. He had a 6.6% home run rate with Cleveland, leading to 13 dingers in 67 games. His slash line of .218/.288/.486 isn’t great outside of the SLG, but a 162-game average of 31 homers is nothing to gloss over.
Victor Caratini is here because he started eight games and appeared in 11 overall at first for the Astros, likely qualifying him at first base in your league. Unless the Astros sign a first baseman during the offseason, Caratini will likely get even more time at first base as well as catcher. He doesn’t have a great power, but he has a .265/.332/.397 slash line over the last two seasons with 15 homers and 55 RBI in 149 games.
Top Prospects
- Deyvison De Los Santos, Mia
- Jac Caglianone, KC
- Xavier Isaac, TB
- Bryce Eldridge, SF
- Nick Kurtz, Oak
- Ralphy Velazquez, Cle
If you are looking to dip into the minor leagues to fill your first base position or backup spot, these are the top prospects I like. De Los Santos is the closest to the majors while Jac Caglianone is a dynamic two-way player in the Royals system who could be in the majors sooner than later after being drafted sixth overall this past summer. Kansas City did not have Caglianone pitch after drafting him, but the book is not closed on him being a pitcher.
TIER 5
*Age as of April 1, 2025
| RANK | PLAYER | 2024 TEAM | AGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | Rowdy Tellez | PIT | 30 |
| 49 | Jeimer Candelario | CIN | 31 |
| 48 | Justin Turner | SEA | 40 |
| 47 | Pavin Smith | ARI | 29 |
| 46 | David Fry | CLE | 29 |
| 45 | Ty France | CIN | 30 |
| 44 | Tyler Soderstrom | OAK | 23 |
| 43 | Seth Brown | OAK | 32 |
| 42 | Spencer Horwitz | TOR | 27 |
| 41 | Ryan O’Hearn | BAL | 31 |
Depth Players
If you are starting Rowdy Tellez, Jeimer Candelario or Justin Turner at first base, I’m sorry. Those three players should be on your team for depth purposes only. Tellez is coming off a 13-homer season while Candelario hit 20 in 112 games, but he had a .225/.279/.429 slash line. Turner is going to be 40 next year and is coming off a very so-so season.
Which Fry is the Real Deal?
David Fry, who can also play catcher and left field, is a great player when it comes to versatility. Multi-positional players are always a plus. He is also coming off a 14 homer, 51 RBI season in 122 games with a .263/.448/.804 slash line.
But most of that production came in the first two months of the season when slashed .352/.485/.629 with eight home runs and 27 RBI in 40 games. His production fell to .246/.307/.362 with no homers and five RBI in June and from July through the end of the season he slashed .211/.279/.367 with six home runs and 19 RBI in 60 games. Those numbers match the 57-game run he had in 2023 when he hit four homers and drove in 15 while slashing .238/.319/.416.
I’m thinking Fry is the player we saw in the second half of this season and not the first two months.
Solid Bench Player
Spencer Horwitz is a solid bench player thanks to the fact that he can play both first and second base. In only 94 games he hit 12 homers and drove in 38 while slashing .268/.359/.442. That is a solid line, and Horwitz is likely in line for more at-bats next season. If he matches the same production over 125 games, he is a Tier 4 player for sure.
TIER 4
| RANK | PLAYER | 2024 TEAM | AGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | Carlos Santana | MIN | 38 |
| 39 | Yandy Diaz | TB | 33 |
| 38 | Paul Goldschmidt | STL | 37 |
| 37 | Josh Bell | ARI | 33 |
| 36 | Connor Wong | BOS | 28 |
| 35 | Zach Dezenzo | HOU | 24 |
| 34 | Jonathan Aranda | TB | 26 |
| 33 | Kyle Manzardo | CLE | 24 |
| 32 | Ben Rice | NYY | 26 |
| 31 | Jose Miranda | MIN | 26 |
The Old
Carlos Santana, Yandy Diaz, Paul Goldschmidt and Josh Bell are all on the downhill side of their careers. But that doesn’t mean they are not serviceable. Santana continues to hit as he had 22 homers and 68 RBI this year for the Twins with a .234/.323/.414 slash line (the OBP and SLG are above the 1B average of .319 and .407). Diaz slashed .282/.342/.417 but had only 14 homers. I like a little more power in the first basemen and Xavier Isaac may be taking his job sooner rather than later.
Goldschmidt did not have a good season by his standards, slashing .241/.299/.406 with 22 homers and 62 RBI in 154 games. Those numbers are way below his career average of .289/.381/.510 and 162-game average of 30 homers and 100 RBI. It is likely the start of a continued downward trend, but I am not 100 percent sold on that yet.
Bell was basically your average first baseman this year as he hit 19 homers and drove in 71 runs while slashing .250/.320/.406. He had a nice stint with the Diamondbacks, but who knows where he will be next season and exactly his role will be. He will likely land a starting job somewhere and then get traded at the deadline just like in 2022, 2023 and again this year.
The Young
Connor Wong is here because he qualifies as a first baseman and thus has versatility. But he should not be your starting first baseman as he doesn’t measure up against other first basemen when it comes to the power numbers. Zach Dezenzo had a great season in the minors for the Astros but struggled at the major league level. If the Astros re-sign Alex Bregman and leave first base to internal candidates, Dezenzo has a chance to get a lot of at-bats there next season. But that is far from certain and he is at best a backup option right now.
Kyle Manzardo barely can be called first basemen and may not actually qualify there in your league as he started only two games at first and appeared in six games total out of the 53 games he played in this year. Manzardo slashed .234/.282/.421, but he did hit five homers in his 145 at-bats and hit 20 in 292 at-bats at Triple-A Columbus and has a career SLG of .544 in the minors.
TIER 3
| RANK | PLAYER | 2024 TEAM | AGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Tyler Locklear | SEA | 24 |
| 29 | Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | 28 |
| 28 | Tyler Black | MIL | 24 |
| 27 | Luis Arraez | SD | 27 |
| 26 | Jake Cronenworth | SD | 31 |
| 25 | Rhys Hoskins | MIL | 32 |
| 24 | Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | 29 |
| 23 | Nolan Schanuel | LAA | 23 |
| 22 | Andrew Vaughn | CWS | 26 |
| 21 | Spencer Torkelson | DET | 25 |
Unproven Upside
Tyler Locklear, like Manzardo in Tier 4, has a strong upside. Locklear has tremendous raw power while also being able to hit to all fields. Between Double-A and Triple-A he slashed .272/.382/.468 with 16 homers and 67 RBI in 111 games. He struggled with the Mariners, but he should get a longer look at first base next season.
Depending on your league rules, Tyler Black may not actually qualify at first base as he started six games at first base out of the 14 games he appeared. His introduction to the majors did not go well as he slashed .204/.316/.245. However, he entered the 2024 season as a top 100 prospect in Baseball America, MLB and Baseball Prospectus thanks to a minor league career in which he slashed .272/.402/.453 with 37 home runs and 183 RBI in 315 games.
Not Ready to Give Up on…
…Spencer Torkelson. The Detroit first baseman (and every Tigers fan) is ready to forget about his 2024 season. Simply put, it was horrible as he was demoted to the minors midway through the season. Overall, he slashed .218/.287/.376 with only 10 home runs and 36 RBI in 89 games with 103 strikeouts. Torkelson is going to strike out as he has a 25.5% career rate. But is 2024 the real Torkelson? Or can he approach the 2023 version in which he hit 31 homers and drove in 94 runs and had a .446 SLG?
I can’t give up on Torkelson just yet. If anything, he is probably a great buy low player right now as there are probably a host of dynasty league players looking to unload him.
TIER 2
| RANK | PLAYER | 2024 TEAM | AGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Cody Bellinger | CHC | 29 |
| 19 | Michael Toglia | COL | 26 |
| 18 | Luke Raley | SEA | 30 |
| 17 | Alex Bohm | PHI | 28 |
| 16 | Yainer Diaz | HOU | 26 |
| 15 | Alec Burleson | STL | 26 |
| 14 | Christian Walker | ARI | 34 |
| 13 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | CIN | 25 |
| 12 | Jake Burger | MIA | 28 |
| 11 | Michael Busch | CHC | 27 |
First Base as a Side Job
What do Cody Bellinger, Michael Toglia, Luke Raley, Alex Bohm, Yainer Diaz and Alec Burleson all have in common? All six players are NOT fulltime first baseman. Bellinger, Toglia, Raley and Burleson all saw time in the outfield in 2024 in addition to first base while Diaz is a catcher who saw action at first while Bohm is a third baseman most of the time.
But all of these players qualify at first base, with Toglia seeing the most action there with more than 100 games started at the position. After appearing in 31 games for the Rockies in 2022 and then 45 in 2023, Toglia played in 116 games and delivered 25 homers and 55 RBI. His 5.5% home rate was nice, but not his 33% career strikeout rate. But thanks to his power potential, I will overlook the strikeouts.
Burleson had a really nice season for the Cardinals, slashing .269/.314/.420 with 21 homers and 78 RBI in 152 games. He saw most of his playing time in left and right field this past season, but with Goldschmidt likely not returning to St. Louis, Burleson will continue to get plenty of time at first base. Burleson has increased his home run rate from 1.9% in 2022 to 3.5% this year and makes contact as he has a 13.1% career strikeout rate. He’s not spectacular, but he won’t kill you if you have to start him at first.
An Injury-Plagued Season
When you look at the stats Christian Encarnacion-Strand produced this year, they were pretty ugly – .190/.220/.293 slash line with two homers and 16 RBI. But Encarnacion-Strand was limited to only 29 games due to a fractured right hand. Fantasy players had high hopes for him entering the season after he his 13 homers and drove in 37 runs in 63 games in 2023 while slashing .270/.328/.477.
I fully expect Encarnacion-Strand to return to his 2023 form and be a big bat for the Reds in 2025 and beyond.
Living Up to Expectations
Michael Busch was a top 100 prospect rankings for multiple seasons before finally given a chance to play every day this past season with the Cubs. Drafted by the Dodgers with the 31st overall pick in 2019, the Cubs acquired Busch in January of this year and watched him hit 21 home runs and drive in 65 runs in 152 games while slashing .248/.335/.440.
Busch did struggle in the second half of the season, slashing .216/.303/.402 compared to .271/.357/.466 before the All-Star break, but he hit 11 of his 21 homers from July through the end of the year with 35 RBI in 73 games, so the power production remained steady. There is no reason to expect the power to go away and I expect the slash line will improve in 2025.
TIER 1
| RANK | PLAYER | 2024 TEAM | AGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Salvador Perez | KC | 34 |
| 9 | Spencer Steer | CIN | 27 |
| 8 | Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | 27 |
| 7 | Triston Casas | BOS | 25 |
| 6 | Josh Naylor | CLE | 27 |
| 5 | Matt Olson | ATL | 31 |
| 4 | Pete Alonso | NYM | 30 |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | LAD | 35 |
| 2 | Bryce Harper | PHI | 32 |
| 1 | Vladimir Guerrero | TOR | 26 |
Salvador Perez, Again
This is what I said about Salvador Perez in the catcher rankings, and it applies here…I am not going to punish Salvador Perez for being old. Despite the fact he will be 34 at the beginning of next season, he has shown no signs of slowing down. Since his 48 homer, 121 RBI season in 2021, Perez has still managed to hit 23, 23 and 27 home runs with 76, 80 and 104 RBI. Since his debut season in 2011, Perez has never slugged below .400. He is the Energizer Bunny…he just keeps going and going and going.
Running with the Young Crowd
If you want to build around a first baseman younger than the age of 28 who is not named Vladimir Guerrero, then start with one of the following: Spencer Steer, Vinnie Pasquantino, Triston Casas or Josh Naylor.
Ranking Steer ninth may come as a surprise to some, but he hit 20 homers and drove in 92 runs while also stealing 25 bases. That is a huge advantage compared to other first basemen. With Encarnacion-Strand back next season, Steer will likely see his playing time at first base reduced, but not enough to no longer make him eligible at the position after next season.
I will admit right now that I was not on the Vinnie Pasquantino bandwagon ahead of the 2024 season. I was completely wrong. After being limited to 61 games in 2023 and slashing only .247/.324/.437, Pasquantino rebounded to hit 19 homers and drive in 97 runs with a .262/.315/.446 slash line this year. His 162-game career average is 23 home runs and 91 RBI with an outstanding 12.2% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate.
Not Making the Same Mistake Twice
After whiffing on Pasquantino, I am not going to make the same mistake twice and ding Triston Casas. A right shoulder injury limited Casas to only 60 games this year. But in those 60 games he hit 12 homers and drove in 30 runs with a .342 OBP and .455 SLG.
His 162-game average is 31 homers and 80 RBI with a .250/.357/.473 slash line. He does strike out too much (26.9% career rate) but he has a 5% career home run rate and an average EV of 90.3 mph. His power is real and he should be on your roster if you have a chance to snag him.
Quiet Producer
Josh Naylor had a career year. There is no question about that after his 31 homer, 108 RBI season. His previous career high in dingers was 20 in 2022 and his previous high in RBI was 97 in 2023. Even if Naylor doesn’t reach 31 homers again and settles into the 25-27 range, he will continue to drive in runs. In his three years as a fulltime player for Cleveland, his RBI total has gone from 79 to 97 to 108. When runners are on base, he puts the ball in play as he had a .256/.347/.477 slash line with runners in scoring position with only a 15.9% strikeout rate.
Heavy Hitting Veterans
Matt Olson, Pete Alonso, Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper are now in their 30s. However, that doesn’t mean they are not going to be productive for the next three to five years.
Olson and Alonso are not going to provide you with a great batting average and their OBP is only slightly higher than the average first baseman. But both players can mash the ball. Olson slugged 29 homers this year and he has a career SLG of .512. Since 2018, he has not hit fewer than 29 homers in any full 162-game season. Olson will also take the field every day as he has played in all 162 games the last three years and appeared in 156 in 2021 (and even all 60 games in 2020).
Now a free agent, Alonso is going to get paid this offseason after surpassing 30 homers once again, slugging 34 this past season with 88 RBI. Since his debut season in 2019 when he hit 53 homers, he has yet to hit fewer than 34 in any full 162-game season. He has a career SLG of .514 and his 162-game average is 43 home runs and 112 RBI.
Freeman is just a machine at the plate. An ankle injury hobbled Freeman this past season, but he still hit 22 homers, drove in 89 runs and slashed .282/.378/.476. Freeman is good for nearly 25 homers and 100 RBI every season to go along with a career slash line of .300/.387/.512.
Harper is simply one of the best hitters in the game, no matter what position player you are comparing him to.
Need power and run production? Harper has a career 162-game average of 33 homers and 96 RBI. Need a solid slash line? Harper’s career line is .281/.389/.522. Twice in his career he has topped 1.000 in OPS and his career OPS is .911. He will add a few steals as well, though he managed only seven this year, his lowest total since 2017. But you don’t want Harper because of steals. You want Harper because of everything else he does.
Back on Top
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a breakout season in 2021, when at the tender age of 22, he hit 48 homers, drove in 111 runs and slashed .311/.401/.601 to finish second in the MVP voting. Those are some pretty lofty numbers to try to match every year, and Guerrero hasn’t. But all he has done since then is hit 88 home runs and drive in 294 runs while slashing .287/.360/.489. His “worst” season since 2021 was last year when he hit 26 homers and had 94 RBI while slashing .264/.345/.444.
Guerrero found his mojo at the plate this past season as he slashed .323/.396/.544. That is a top-10 finish across the board in the slash categories as the averaged ranked second in MLB while the OBP ranked third and the SLG ranked ninth. That is pretty solid for a player who hasn’t even reached his prime yet.
Come Back Next Week
Thanks for reading and come back next week when we continue the trip around the infield and tackle second base.
Previous Rankings
Top 50 Dynasty Keepers for 2025 – Relievers
Top 100 Dynasty Keepers for 2025 – Starting Pitchers
Top 40 Dynasty Keepers for 2025 – Catchers
Fry should be about 10 higher. He hurt his elbow and they coincided directly with performance. I dont think he played C since May?
Soderstrom should be at least 20 higher. Too much potential and too young to be so far back.
Steer I am not sure what to make of. 20/20 year but half the time looked like he couldnt hit at all.
Toglia Id have in the 10-15 range because 25/10 witblh 35-40HR power potential is nice. If he can increase BA to .230-240 range and keep 10 steals a year with power, very nice!
Ben Rice is far too high. As much as I wanted him to succeed.
Lists are tough for sure.
Hey J.R., thanks for reading. You know what the best thing about rankings is? They are a great starting point for you and others. You obviously play as you have precise ideas of where to rank certain players. And that is fine. In no way are my rankings the definitive list of where players should be ranked.
I went back and forth with Togila. I had him at 12 at one point, but I just don’t like the slash line, specifically his OBP. If you have a low average but still draw walks to go with power, I can live with that. But his OBP is below the MLB average, much less just first basemen.
Steer – as I said, the steals really boosts his value at first base. He has enough power to compete with other top first basemen and then throw in 20+ steals, that is a great advantage to go along with multi-positional value.
I’ve talked about Soderstrom a lot below. I may be missing the boat on him, but right now I’m not buying in completely.
And over the years I have tempered my enthusiasm to rank the young up-and-coming players over the more established players. Building dynasty teams is a fine balance between the two and my rankings tend to reflect that now. I could just doe tiers based on age and rank players of similar ages, but that is boring and not a true indicator of where I feel a player compares to all the rest.
Toglia is one of those cross fingers and pray the numbers under the hood keep going up. Exciting improvements in key metrics and more damage done outside than at Coors. Sign. Me. Up.
Steer wasnt a knock on rankings, just how hard they are. I legit dont know what to make of him. You could have put at 20 and Id been like yeah I can see it.
Sod has been talked about a lot. Just too young too much upside to be that low. Him between Aranda and Tork I can see considering his year was comparable to theirs and he is younger.
CES is another idk about because I never bought in and price was too high. Im sure everyone will have him high again too so I will wait and see.
If Mayo got moved to 1B would he be hanging out with Noel or would he just make the cut?
I have always been a fan of Steer and CES, so my bias likely plays a part in where they are ranked, though I explained Steer in more depth as the speed really plays a role in his first base rankings. As an outfielder he will be lower down as he is closer to the average than at first base.
I agree with Toglia.
Going on just potential, Mayo would be like Noel and in Tier 3. But that goes back to the potential vs. what have they actually done argument. Soderstrom, Mayo, etc. have great potential. If I am building a team strictly on potential, my rankings would have a completely different look. So I am not jumping Mayo and Noel into Tier 2 and because of positional requirements, I left May out completely until I get to the third basemen.
Yeah was just curious on Mayo as people offering him in dynasty, but everyone says likely not a 3B and likely 1B/OF. I dont have a read on him either because not one of my dudes Ive really looked into.
Is Steer going to be OF only with CES back? I acquired him last year and noticed 3B time and 2B in years past. Is that just injury fillin time?
Mayo played 12 games at third for the Birds, 4 at first. I have a feeling he will split time between the two. But I don’t see the outfield in his future as he has never played there since becoming a professional. Not saying he can’t learn, but he isn’t a shortstop being asked to move to center field or something like that.
I think Steer will get enough time at first as CES will get some DH days. Since he can play so many different positions, he is basically a fulltime starter who allows other starters to rest as he fills in at the different spots.
I do not see how you could possibly leave Samuel Basallo off your top prospects lists, but you did.
I had him grouped with the top catching prospects. Didn’t put him here. Such is life.
Thanks for reading once again.
That’s fine. He’s also considered a 1B prospect, but your logic makes sense. You’re welcome. I’m always reading!
I’m gonna pig-pile on Soderstrom because I think you need to fix it. He’s a former top-10 prospect who is young, hits the ball hella hard, has the starting gig in Oakland, and just played pretty well for a rookie. His Statcast page is impressive. If you have a minute, I’d love to hear how Locklear, Black, and Dezenzo are better options among young 1B.
I gave a response to your comment below, so here we can talk about the four players. There are myriad ways to look at a player, but let’s just go with simple numbers, in this case their minor league careers only, as a starting point. We will go with slash line, K%, BB% and HR/AB.
Soderstrom: .272/.339/.532, 25.5%, 8.4%, 1 per 16
Dezenzo: .295/.377/.499, 25.8%, 10.6%, 1 per 23
Locklear: .280/.389/.485, 22.5%, 11.4%, 1 per 24
Black: .272/.402/.453, 18.5%, 15.5%, 1 per 30
Quick look tells you Soderstrom has the most power. No question about that. If that is the determining factor in choosing player 1 over player 2, then Soderstrom will win.
But if you are looking at his entire game, he has holes. He has the second-highest strikeout rate and worst walk rate. He has the worst OBP by far and tied with Black for the lowest AVG. He also will be a one-position player unless the A’s decide to slide him behind the plate at times next season and beyond.
Dezenzo has the highest AVG and 2nd-best SLG. While he also strikes out a lot, he has also drawn a lot of walks and has the 2nd-best HR rate per ABs. Bonus points for him is the fact he can play first, second, third and even left field. I love multi-positional players. That moves him ahead of Soderstrom at this point for me.
Same same goes for Blach. He doesn’t have the power the other players have, but he gets on base a ton thanks to his 11.4% walk rate. He can also play first, second, third, left and center field.
Like all these players, Locklear doesn’t match Soderstrom in the power department, and playing in Seattle’s massive park is not going to help him in that department. But I think he has a better overall hit tool and a much better eye at the plate.
That is my reasoning. You can laugh at it, argue with it or just go with it and take Soderstrom as you like him more. That’s good with me. I just appreciate you reading the post and taking the time to comment so we can have this discussion.
Burger actually had a better year than Matt Olson….i agree with your rankings! I have Naylor, Casas and Burger….trying to move Burger for pitching but no one respects this guy! Any chance he gets better or is this his best? 13 team dynasty 5×5….thank you!
Burger and Olson were basically statistically equal this year, though on a per game basis, then Burger comes out ahead due to playing 134 games to Olson’s 157. I give the nod to Olson right now because of how consistent he has been for his career. For a quick comparison, here is Olson’s career 162-game average: .254/.349/.512, .860 OPS, 134 OPS+, 94 runs, 40 homers, 109 RBI, 1 steal. These are Burger’s numbers: .251/.305/.483/.789 111 OPS+, 77-34-87-1.
Olson is just the better player right now and I think will be no worse than equal for the next 3 years. After that the advantage obviously swings to Burger due to age.
That said, the fact you can’t take a buyer for Burger is a little perplexing. Whether he is a top 10 first baseman or a little lower than 12th in someone’s rankings, he will produce a lot of homers and RBI over the next five years, and that isn’t something a lot of players will do. I think he is at his ceiling when it comes to the slash line, but it is not impossible for him to reach 35 homers again and the RBIs to increase if the Miami hitters around him improve. No matter what happens with Burger for you, you have a great collection of first basemen.
Thanks for reading.
I have a dynasty OBP league with Schanuel at 1B. Trying to decide whether to sit pat or try to improve at the position. Do you see any upside at all? No power on a bad team not a good combo. OTOH high OBP floor, position is thin and he maybe he can “good enough” to use capital elsewhere?
I think he falls into the “good enough” description, but it is hard to tell if you have holes elsewhere in your lineup. If you are getting above average power at second base and the two or three other spots, then having Schanuel at first is fine as he will really help your OBP and I think add some power along the way. Not saying he will become a 25-30 homer guy, but I think he can get to 20. If you KNOW you can land a first baseman how hits for power, then maybe you can flip him for a need.
Thanks for the question.
Tyler Soderstrom seems greatly underrated here. I’d take him over any of the tier 3 guys and a lot of the tier 2 guys. His underlying numbers improved a lot as a 22 YO. The samples aren’t huge, but compare his .348 xwOBA to Casas’ .330 xwOBA for 2024 (or Pete Alonso’s .345). I think incremental adjustments in his swing decisions and/or ability to lift the ball could lead to him making a massive leap.
His home ballpark will likely play against him. SAC seems like it’ll be pitcher friendly, then who knows after this season.
That is the beauty of rankings – people see things in many different ways. But concerning Soderstrom, this year the average first baseman had a .244/.319/.407 slash line. Soderstrom came in a .232/.315/.418 – so a little below average to a little above average across the line. In his 106 career games that slash line is at .204/.282/.354. So far, nothing suggests to me that the slash line is going to make a massive jump, though improvement is likely based on his minor league success.
As for his power, it has shown up in the minors at hitter’s ballparks, but so far it is what the average MLB first baseman produces. For players who appeared in 100 or more games this season that production was 18 homers and 67 RBI. Soderstrom has 12 and 33 in his 106 games and his 162-game average is 18 homers and 50 RBI. That, again, is average.
He will certainly improve, but right now I don’t know how quickly and by how much. At a position like first base, I tend to be more conservative and go with players I know will produce for me (though that has burned me with Torkelson). Soderstrom has upside, but I am not as committed to him as you are.
Thanks for reading and the comment. It’s never bad to talk baseball!
His power is 70-grade undeniable. He’s still 22 years old and they rushed up into the league. This doesn’t sound like dynasty advice at all. I agree with Pau.
If you are looking for a player with just raw power and upside, then Soderstrom is a great target. But you can’t build a team with nothing but players who have potential. If you want to win, you need some proven players and I really prefer for my first basemen to be proven.
I have a slew of first base prospects in my dynasty leagues, with two of my teams having Soderstrom in my system. I would love for him to become a cornerstone of my team. But right now I just don’t see it.
Can he hit the ball hard? Without question. Statcast proves that.
But he also has a really hard time making contact if the pitcher throws anything other than a fastball. This past season Soderstrom had a .315 AVG and .620 SLG on fastballs. But those numbers were .183/.233 against breaking balls and .108/.270 against offspeed pitches.
Know what pitchers are going to throw Soderstrom next season? A whole lot of breaking pitches and offspeed pitches. He struck out 25.5% of the time in the minors, and that was against minor league pitching.
I’m not saying he is going to be horrible. But I don’t think he is going to be a superstar either. I think he eventually settles into a fringe starter in 12-team leagues.
But that is just my opinion. You can completely disagree with me and that is fine – we look for different things at different positions. But thanks for reading.
You take the chance on a guy like Soderstrom over a guy like Luke Raley. He was pushed through the minor leagues very quickly so he’s far from a finished product. The fact that you have him behind Carlos Santana in a dynasty league tells me you don’t know how to value a player like Soderstrom or you’ve completely overlooked how much potential he has.
If I am starting a dynasty team from scratch and didn’t give a hoot about winning at first, I am taking nothing but players under 25 with the most upside and then going down my list.
But I can’t assume that everyone is starting a brand new team in a brand new league. I am assuming there are players in leagues that have limited number of players who can be kept as well as contract leagues, etc. With that in mind, I try my best to strike a balance between the young players with potential and the players who have proven themselves.
I pretty much know Santana or Olson or Walker are going to keep producing for the next three years. A player like Raley can be plugged in at multiple positions. In leagues with 25-man rosters, that is a huge advantage.
I do not know what Soderstrom is going to do over the next three years, much less five. As I am always in win-now mode, I am going to take the player who I think can best help me win for the next three years unless I have a top player at a position. Then I will go for the young player with upside.
So you are not wrong in wanting Soderstrom. He’s got tremendous upside. But he also has a low floor outside of his power. I don’t want a player like that at this time unless I have a Tier 1 first baseman already on my roster, allowing me to let Soderstrom grow (or not).
Judging from your comments, I think you’re really underrating age relative to performance.
Soderstrom put up a 114 wRC+ at 22.
Here’s where your tier 1 players were in their age 22 seasons:
Soderstrom isn’t a finished product, but 22 year-olds almost never are. Of your 10 Tier 1 guys, only 4 were established regulars at 22. The 2 that really outperformed Soderstrom were considered generational hitting talents. Soderstrom does still have holes in his game. It’s possible he doesn’t improve. But you’re ranking him like he’s a 30 year-old AAAA platoon hitter (e.g. Seth Brown). I don’t see a justification for rating him lower than Andrew Vaughn or Spencer Torkelson, two former top prospects who have lesser current production while being a couple years older.
I’m sure you read my response to Phillip. When doing rankings like these, I could have gone in three directions.
First – just go from best to worst based on performance and who cares about age. Those are boring and take no gut feel into account.
Second way – Rank them based solely on upside, which basically goes from youngest to oldest. For those creating brand new teams in brand new leagues, that would be great.
Third way – A mixture of everything, which is what I am trying to accomplish. The dynasty leagues I am in are established leagues and all have different rules. I think a lot of readers are in the same boat. So, maybe they are wondering what is left in a Freddie Freeman and Sal Perez. Maybe seeing them still ranked in the top 10 backs up their hunch that there is still plenty left in the tank.
My snapshot is a three-year window due to this balancing act. Over the next three years, who do I think will provide me the best overall stats to help my team win. Starting from there I bend a little and fudge a little using my gut hunch.
Right now, my gut is not in favor of Soderstrom. I may be completely wrong, and if I am, I will be the first to admit it, just as I did with Pasquantino.
Use these rankings as a starting point. Then we can discuss certain players like we are with Soderstrom. I love the back and forth. You make a lot of good points about him. But for every one Soderstrom, there are 10 more who flamed out who had his same profile. That is the beauty of dynasty league baseball – we all have our views and in the end the standings will tell us who did the better job.