It’s always good to try and see every pitcher that you can.

I’ve never seen Henry Owens pitch, but didn’t think much of him for 2015 with a horrible walk rate in AAA (4.12 per/9).  “Is this strike zone regulation size, or what?!”  But he is a top prospect, reportedly has good stuff, and was decent in his debut against the Yanks.

You never know what you can see at the eye level, and you never know what pitchers might have a fluky bad walk rate in AAA only to find dynamite command in the Majors (cough,  Taylor Jungmann).  So I decided to check out Owens yesterday, to see how he looked on the road against the Tigers in his second MLB start:

First Inning: Owens’ first pitch is an 87 MPH cutter (?) catching the outside edge for strike one to Rajai Davis.  The tall lefty is in there again at 89 MPH with a four-seamer that’s popped back foul – maybe that first pitch was just a get-me-over four-seamer – then 0-2 is an 89 MPH fastball perfectly on the high inside edge that gets a very awkward swing from Davis for a 3-pitch K to start the game:

Owens-fastball-1

Wow, Davis hits lefties well, and that was awful.  Fastball well outside to Jose Iglesias, then 1-0 is bunted up the first base line, Owens makes the play and throws it to first, and a very weird play as Iglesias steps on Travis Shaw‘s glove which caught the low throw right on top of the bag, and the ball then popped out.  Iglesias is out, as Shaw had it and touched the bag with clear control of the ball, then it popped out as Iglesias stepped on the glove.  Owens with a pretty poor throw, but good enough.  Two down, and Ian Kinsler takes 88 outside, 89 barely misses high and outside, 88 looked pretty far outside but is called strike one – Kinsler starts jawing – then a 2-1 off-speed pitch at 77 just stayed in the zone and gets lined to left for a double.  Broadcast calls it a change-up, but it was mad hittable either way.  Victor Martinez gets blown away by a first-pitch 90 MPH fastball on the hands, 0-1 is a big looping curveball at 71 that stays well high, 90 MPH again in the zone gets a nick of a foul tip back 1-2 – fastball showing some better life.  Then Owens throws his best pitch of the day with a 76 MPH change-up with great life and sink that gets V-Mart to strike out to end the inning:

Owens-changeup

Damn, V-Mart hits lefties well – even in this his down year -and that was only his 6th strike out against a lefty all season in… well 69 at bats, but that’s still pretty impressive for Owens.

Second Inning: 87 is outside to J.D. Martinez, a nice fastball at 89 MPH paints the low outside corner 1-1, 89 blows Martinez away on the outside edge with good location, 1-2 out there again is spoiled foul, 89 well high, curveball just outside sinking on the outside edge is hit foul, fastball outside hit pretty hard but just foul into the right field stands, a lot of pitches away to J.D.  2-2 change-up stays way outside, then change again is outside for a long-AB walk.  Owens with very inconsistent off-speed stuff – I don’t get not challenging with a fastball.  Fastball at 90 in there to Nick Castellanos, then another good fastball at 90 on the outside edge gets Castellanos to pop it back and lose his bat, 0-2:

Owens-fastball-2

Love GIFfing the bats flying out of the hand!  Owens’ fastball still tough to square up so far.  0-2 is 91 MPH just outside, then a high change-up is popped to right for the first out.  Fastball way low to James McCann, another nice change-up at 77 MPH hits the outside edge 1-1 – that was his second best off-speed with that change-up GIFfed above – fastball well high, 91 MPH is way low and inside, then 89 just misses the outside black for another walk.  90 misses inside to fill-in 1B Jefry Marte, then fastball on the outside edge is flown to right for an easy out, two down.  The speedy Anthony Gose takes a change-up well outside, 90 MPH on the hands yanked on the ground foul, then the 1-1 is a change-up dribbled right to the mound, and Owens makes a much better throw to first this time for an easy third out.

Third Inning: Spotted a 2-0 lead, Owens is back to the top and is outside at 88 MPH to Davis, 1-0 fouled back, change-up hangs high and outside, then a nasty change-up at 77 MPH dives down and in and gets a big swing-and-miss 2-2.  Nice bite on that one.  91 is low and in, then 89 is outside for a walk.  Iglesias takes high, again 89 MPH is high, then 87 MPH is well outside and goes to the backstop, with Davis running for a steal and he gets to third.  Owens ducked right after throwing the pitch, so he saw Davis running and it psyched him out.  Not great to see.  3-0 is a fastball in there to Iglesias, fastball laced foul, then 90 MPH on the hands is popped out.  Nice recovery from Owens.  Kinsler takes a perfect inside fastball on the black at 90 MPH for strike one, 91 on the outside edge fouled off – 0-2 and Owens’ fastball seems back on.  High 90 MPH fastball fouled back, 91 MPH popped out of play, still 0-2 and 92 is low – I think that’s his fastest so far – 91 fouled off, still 1-2 through 6 pitches.  7th pitch of the AB is high, then 90 MPH on the hands gets a very easy pop out in the infield for another out that strands Davis at third.  V-Mart takes a high hanging 77 MPH curveball in the top of the zone for strike one – seemed a generous call – then curveball again is hit hard to center, and Jackie Bradley pulls up on it to play it for a single.  I dunno, Bradley might’ve had a shot on a dive….  So it’s a two-out RBI single, and J.D. fouls off a low first-pitch fastball, 90 on the hands fouled back, way high 90 MPH fastball taken, then an off-speed pitch at 74 cutting across the zone is popped to center for an easy third out.

Fourth Inning: Still a 2-1 game. and on the first pitch Castellanos laces one to left, but it’s caught on the fly for the first out.  First hard-hit out so far.  Owens misses outside to McCann, fastball on the outer edge evens it up, 88 is low, and the broadcast mentions through 16 hitters – only 8 first-pitch strikes.  Then 2-1 is a change-up that hung in the middle of the zone, and McCann hits it pretty hard oppo field to left, but Alejandro De Aza has it a few feet in front of the track for the second out.  Another one hit pretty hard.  Then Marte is also first-pitch hacking, and crushes a high fastball to center, but Bradley web gems it with a catch over his shoulder on the track for the third out.  Man, a quick inning, but every out very well hit.  In Boston, that McCann out is off the monster…

Fifth Inning: At 69 pitches (41 strikes – which doesn’t seem that bad), Gose takes a curveball in the dirt, then 86 MPH inside somehow hits the knob of Gose’s bat for a “foul” that almost certainly should’ve been a HBP.  Lucky break there.  Curve is low, 2-1 fastball at only 87 MPH is high, 3-1.  Yikes.  88 MPH barely fits in the high inside corner to fill it up, then a high curveball hangs up there for a walk.  As the broadcast mentions – how do you throw him a breaking ball?!  Attack with the fastball, eesh!  So leadoff runner at first, and Davis takes 87 way outside and there’s a meeting at the mound.  Ugly – no control now and losing velocity.  86 MPH (!!!) is outside 2-0, then 87 MPH in the zone is popped foul on the first base side, and Shaw makes the play reaching into the stands for the first out.  Even at 87 MPH, Owens is keeping the Tigers off-balance!  88 MPH is in the zone to Iglesias, Gose started then stopped for second, and Owens again ducked right away.  He’s letting the runner at first impact him way too much:

Owens-fastball-3

Hate seeing that.  Fastball again in the zone is fouled off, Iglesias reaches for a fastball way outside and tips it foul still 0-2, then Gose went on first movement on a throw to first, and the play is made at second for a pick off.  It wasn’t a great move, just bad base running.  Obviously Owens’ concern for the runner ends up paying off, but you still don’t want to see it impact his mechanics when he delivers a pitch.  Then the 0-2 change-up on the outside edge is popped to shallow left for an easy third out.  Man, Owens isn’t looking great, but getting some pretty easy outs.

Sixth Inning: At 83 pitches, they let Owens go back out there, and the first pitch is a hanging curveball in the zone that Kinsler rips to left for a leadoff ground-rule double.  Kinsler has owned Owens twice now with hung breaking balls in the zone, and with that one extra pitch, Owens is done for the day.  Luckily the Red Sox strand the runner, and hold on to give Owens his first career W.

Final Line:  W  5.0+ IP  84 Pitches (50 Strikes)  1 ER  3 Hits  4 Walks  2 K  Gamescore: 55  Gamescore+: 52.2

Final Analysis: So in last week’s profile, Daniel Norris also threw 84 pitches with 50 strikes…  Twilight Zone!  Of course Norris pitched much deeper…  I really wasn’t very impressed with this outing, even though with a high-80s/low-90s fastball, he was getting pretty weak outs most of the day except for the 4th inning.  We get a really good Gamescore+ calculation scoring under his Gamescore, with low Ks and those really hard hits in the outs in the 4th getting him through a lucky inning.

Every pitch had it’s inconsistencies, but we’ll start with the fastball that ranged from 86-92.  I don’t like seeing a range that wide, especially since I think all were four-seamers.  In his first start against the Yankees, his fastball averaged 91.3 MPH, and I doubt it even averaged 90 MPH in this one (data not yet available on Fangraphs).  Dat scurry.  Then his best off-speed was the change-up, that 50% of the time had good life and sink, but the rest were hung and hittable.  Finally the curveball was hung almost every time, showing some upside with looping life here and there, but almost all of them were high.  It was nearly unusable in this one.

Obviously with a recap like that, Owens stays outside of the top 100 for me.  I have a pretty good comp – he reminds me a lot of Matt Moore.  Obviously Owens is taller and doesn’t quite have the velo, but has a nice smooth delivery yet horrible control issues.  While Owens is still in the Majors for now, I don’t know if it can last until the finish line with how his stuff looked and how base runners seemed to impact his delivery when he caught their motion in the corner of his eye.  I am cautiously optimistic he can be a fantasy #4 or #5 starter in 12 team leagues in his peak, but it might be a few years out.

Razzball Baseball

JB’s Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto, green for risers, red for fallers)

RANK SP, Team
1 Clayton Kershaw, LAD
2 Max Scherzer, WAS
3 Chris Sale, CWS
4 Madison Bumgarner, SF
5 Corey Kluber, CLE
6 Gerrit Cole, PIT
7 Zack Greinke, LAD
8 Jacob deGrom, NYM
9 Jake Arrieta, CHC
10 Felix Hernandez, SEA
11 David Price, TOR
12 Chris Archer, TB
13 Sonny Gray, OAK
14 Cole Hamels, TEX
15 Johnny Cueto, KC
16 Francisco Liriano, PIT
17 Jon Lester, CHC
18 Dallas Keuchel, HOU
19 Matt Harvey, NYM
20 Michael Wacha, STL
21 Carlos Carrasco, CLE
22 Danny Salazar, CLE
23 Noah Syndergaard, NYM
24 Stephen Strasburg, WAS
25 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
26 Carlos Martinez, STL
27 Jason Hammel, CHC
28 Lance Lynn, STL
29 Joe Ross, WAS
30 Jordan Zimmermann, WAS
31 Tyson Ross, SD
32 James Shields, SD
33 Garrett Richards, LAA
34 John Lackey, STL
35 Scott Kazmir, HOU
36 Jimmy Nelson, MIL
37 Taijuan Walker, SEA
38 Jake Odorizzi, TB
39 Mat Latos, LAD
40 Jose Quintana, CWS
41 Shelby Miller, ATL
42 Jeff Samardzija, CWS
43 Gio Gonzalez, WAS
44 Collin McHugh, HOU
45 Julio Teheran, ATL
46 Patrick Corbin, ARI
47 Matt Shoemaker, LAA
48 Trevor Bauer, CLE
49 Chris Tillman, BAL
50 Jaime Garcia, STL
51 Luis Severino, NYY
52 Alex Wood, LAD
53 Nate Karns, TB
54 Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA
55 Andrew Cashner, SD
56 Kyle Hendricks, CHC
57 Mike Fiers, HOU
58 Aaron Nola, PHI
59 Jake Peavy, SF
60 Hector Santiago, LAA
61 Chris Heston, SF
62 Erasmo Ramirez, TB
63 Andrew Heaney, LAA
64 Justin Verlander, DET
65 Taylor Jungmann, MIL
66 Robbie Ray, ARI
67 Marco Estrada, TOR
68 Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS
69 Ian Kennedy, SD
70 Edinson Volquez, KC
71 Rubby De La Rosa, ARI
72 Yordano Ventura, KC
73 Danny Duffy, KC
74 Dan Haren, CHC
75 Matt Cain, SF
76 Nathan Eovaldi, NYY
77 R.A. Dickey, TOR
78 Mike Leake, SF
79 Kendall Graveman, OAK
80 Wei-Yin Chen, BAL
81 Carlos Rodon, CWS
82 Chris Bassitt, OAK
83 Phil Hughes, MIN
84 Kevin Gausman, BAL
85 Ervin Santana, MIN
86 Ubaldo Jimenez, BAL
87 James Paxton, SEA
88 Jon Niese, NYM
89 Lance McCullers, HOU
90 Jesse Chavez, OAK
91 Jose Fernandez, MIA
92 Drew Smyly, TB
93 Anibal Sanchez, DET
94 Daniel Norris, DET
95 Michael Pineda, NYY
96 Drew Hutchison, TOR
97 Anthony DeSclafani, CIN
98 Brett Anderson, LAD
99 Chase Anderson, ARI
100 Aaron Brooks, OAK

Dropped Out: Doug Fister, WAS (hasta la vista, baby!), Jeremy Hellickson, ARI (never liked him, I don’t think he got past 95), Cody Anderson, CLE (ugh, I really did think he was OK… Throws kinda hard with a nice cutter, but eesh regression hit him with a Shane Greene-esque flair all the way to a DL-sucking), Matt Wisler, ATL (meh, barely made it in the past few weeks, looks so pedestrian), Tony Cingrani, CIN (was awful in his last AAA start after being awful back in the Majors), Kyle Gibson, MIN (ugh), Michael Montgomery, SEA (horrific walks)

  • Penultimate rankings update!  I will be out the next two weeks for my wedding/honeymoon, with one final re-rank August 31st, as Pitcher Profiles continue through Sept. without them.  A lot of a pitcher’s ROS future is matchups, so be looking at Sept schedules ahead of time, especially H2H players!
  • Yikes, let’s all pour one out for Jose Fernandez… I kept him in just in case he’s not shut down, but I bet he is…
  • Aight, you guys sold me – Felix Hernandez takes a dip.  I still think he’s going to finish strong, but dayum there’s been some consistent pitching up top.
  • Yup, all in on Joe Ross.  I compared him to Chris Archer in his Pitcher Profile two weeks ago, and I don’t think they booted Doug Fister just to pull Ross in early September to shield his innings.
  • Matt Shoemaker is back to the Truemaker!  After being the Falsemaker the first half…  His velo has gone up a full 2 MPH the past month or so, with 3 straight dynamite games.
  • I almost did this week’s profile on Jimmy Nelson, but decided reliving that one bad pitch yesterday wasn’t worth my tears.  Of the 8 hits he gave up, a few infield hits and slow rollers were in there as he was BABIP-ed to death before hanging one slider to Matt Carpenter.  Otherwise looked dominant again.
  • I was a little worried about Jake Odorizzi coming off a long-term injury, but he’s been great over the past 4.
  • I bet Jaime Garcia wishes he was pitching in the 90s, steroids would be a big help!  He’s been redonkulous, but as we all know, can’t stay healthy.  Obviously a must-own, and on a per-game basis would be much higher for me.  ROS terms, I have to build in risk.
  • Really impressed by Luis Severino, and I could see a monster run.  But he is young, throws with a ton of movement which could lead to walks, there’s some risk here…
  • Very nice to hear James Paxton is ramping up some rehab activity, as my big burly Canadian boyfriend might have enough to make an impact late.
  • Really interested to see if this Chris Bassitt thing is for real.  If he keeps it up the next few weeks, he’s certainly a candidate for my Pitcher Profile when I’m back.

Thoughts on Mr. Owens?  And what do you think of these penultimate ranks?  I’ll be back in late August after a few weeks off, and we’ll have our final ROS ranks another pitcher to profile.  Happy pitching, Razzball Nation!

 
  1. J says:
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    Hey JB,

    Just wanted to say thanks for doing these pitcher profiles/rankings every week.
    Congratulations on the wedding and I hope you have a great time on your honeymoon!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @J: Thanks so much man! Really appreciate that, we’re very excited!

  2. Bad News Kennels says:
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    Why do you have Hammel ranked so favorably compared to Samardzija? They’ve been equally terrible over the past month. Gio has been better, but Hammel is ranked 17 spots ahead. Hammel is on my waiver wire, so just probing before I drop one of them and pick him up! Thanks.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Bad News Kennels: Well, I disagree they’ve both been equally terrible… Only over 2 ER once in the past 5, and twice in the past 11. Samard has given up 4+ ER in 4 of 5. Plus Samard was awful early, while Hammel is only a little rough right now, and while not going deep, at least he’s not blowing up. I’d def make that move. Any time!

  3. Fungazi says:
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    I’m off the Wood train for good. If you are interested in a comparison:

    Player A – 130.2 IP, 7-7 record, 103 K, 3.72 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
    Player B – 132 IP, 7-7 record, 98 K, 3.75, 1.36 WHIP

    Player B is the widely available Desclafani. Barf.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Fungazi: Hah yeah that’s interesting, of course you can argue Wood has upside and a shot for more wins, that’s all that’s keeping him a good bit higher. But no real big argument from me haha

  4. Regan says:
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    I think Sm*^*%ja needs to be kicked down to 100. Or replace him with Paxton. He ain’t coming back this year. Nice work!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Regan: You scared me, I thought you meant he was hurt and I missed it! Yeah he’s been terrible, but has a shot to turn it around, he can’t be THIS bad…

  5. Harrison Ford in Air Force One says:
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    JB–thanks for all the work you do on these; look forward to them every Monday.

    Glad to see that Sale is still top 3 for you–I’m going to the Sox game tonight and hoping for a bounce back from his last 2 outings.

    What’s your advice on Pineda? My team is currently in line to make the playoffs, but wonder if he’s worth holding onto until then. Rotation otherwise looks like this: Sale, Arrieta, Carrasco, Richards, McHugh, Corbin, Wood

    Thanks again–you”ll be missed the next few weeks, but congrats on the wedding and have an awesome honeymoon!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Harrison Ford in Air Force One: Thanks so much man!

      Yeah Sale has shown bumps, then dominance. Not going to overreact to one start, where I think he gave up 12 hits, with 11 being singles if memory serves v Red Sox. Then the Rays hit lefties well. Meh.

      He’s def fringy. If you knew for sure you were headed to playoffs I would hold, but any doubt I would lose him to stream where you needed.

      Thanks so much man, we’re pumped for it, Caribbean here we come!

  6. Jason Morgan says:
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    Which pitcher do you want next season, Hamels or Strasburg? And does your answer change if I ask which one your want for the next 2 seasons (2016 and 2017)?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jason Morgan: Close, probably Strasburg for both. It’s closer for next year only, for 2 years def Strasburg

  7. phenomenot says:
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    What do you think of a trade of JoFer for Miggy, in a keeper, where I could contend this year

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @phenomenot: Hmmmmm. Convnetional wisdom is to always keep the hitter… I think I would take Miggy and have him help the final push, and he’s proba better keeper for next year too.

  8. Eric B says:
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    Always look forward to these on Mondays JB! Actually knew it was up thanks to my twitter feed, unfortunately with Freeman, Stanton, Springer and Kipnis DLed I cant make many pitching moves this week. But hey that doesn’t stop me from reading and absorbing the knowledge lol.

    Also you seem to be right regarding Gausman, I was really encouraged by his 1st 2 starts back but this last one was a stinker. I’m also hoping Pax makes it back but saw a report on rotorworld today where McClendonsaid he doesnt expect him to pitch again this year…bummer if true.

    Anyway, have a good one man…I’m sure we’ll be chatting soon.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Eric B: Thanks man, good to see ya! Yikes, yeah injuries still killin ya. At least you’re still doin well!

      Yeah his inconisstency was still a worry for me. Oh damn, I didn’t see that update, that would be a major bummer… He’s been tough to hold on to in my 10 team dynasty, but with betts back tomo, my DL won’t be overflowed again. Stay healthy, team! Hah!

      • Eric B says:
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        @JB Gilpin: My DL has been set on overflow for a month now lol.At least I get Betts back tomorrow and that only leaves one spot on my active roster holding a DL’ed player.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Eric B: Haha yeah I know, been a rough run… I need Betts too, let’s hope this little time off ignites him!

          • Eric B says:
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            @JB Gilpin: Need a little advice, my O has turned in decent performances lately(despite injuries) due to some timely waiver wire adds in 2B Phillips, Eaton and Polanco but my staff hasnt been as productive, high ERA/WHIP very few W’s lately. I’ll post my roster below…Bassitt is on the wire, as is Estrada, just not sure I have anyone worth dropping for either of them.

            Or I could try to flip someone like Soler, Eaton or Polanco for an arm like Teheran, or Nelson. I’m beginning to wonder if I’ll ever get Stanton and Springer back…maybe for the post season. As of Now I’m still in 1st. So would you try to bolster my staff(and if so with who) or hold tight?

            5×5 12 Team HTH w/ OBP
            Bats
            C McCann
            1B Santana
            2B Phillips
            3B Sano
            SS Alexi Ramirez
            OF Pollock
            OF Calhoun
            OF Cepesedes
            OF Betts
            Util 1B/C Grandal
            Util Polanco
            Util Eaton
            Bench Kipnis(DL)
            Bench Soler
            DL Freeman
            DL Springer
            DL Stanton

            Staff
            P Kluber
            P Cole
            P Bauer
            P Salazar
            P T. Walker
            SP Odorizzi
            SP Corbin
            RP Chapman
            RP Britton
            Bench RP Melancon
            Bench RP Miller
            Bench SP Lackey

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Eric B: I like the potential of Eaton for Jimmy. Love me my Nelson, and at the eye level, looks fantastic right now. I’d do that. Corbin’s been a little better after that one dud, and Kluber and Cole should still be aces, I think you’re solid. I’d really only try to move Eaton since he’s shown he can be really bad and has battled a shoulder injury on and off for a bit.

              Hope that helps man!

  9. Peter Nincompoop says:
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    What’s good JB? That’s a rhetorical statement, but seriously, congratulations on your wedding date coming up! Did you invite Kawhi? I think you and me are his biggest fans. Let me know if you need a hookup (I got former SoCal connections, yo)? Enjoy man, and again, congratulations. Thanks for the time put into the writeup. Always good stuff.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Peter Nincompoop: What’s good man? Hahaha thanks man, dude I wish Kawhi was there! A little wedding day 1-on-1, he better not go easy on me!

      Really appreciate that man, catch ya on the flip side of being a married man!

  10. Clint says:
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    So you’re still higher on Erasmo than Jesse Chavez as a RP/SP in h2h points leagues? Had both on my team last week & their craptacular-ness sunk my week but I need one to slot alongside the resurgent Shoemaker ROS.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Clint: Yup I would take Erasmo, Chavez looked better, but I think Erasmo being more conistent gives him a slight edge, They’re closer in Pts than in my ranks since Erasmo never goes deep. Shoe will carry ya though! Ha

  11. bossmanjunior333 says:
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    10 team h2h with limited moves (budget for moves)

    1) Trying to strengthen the back of my rotation. The top 6 are already the boss (DeGrom, Arrietta, Hamels, Carrasco, Salazar, Kuechel). Right now the back of my rotation consists of Heaney and Nola. Here is their ROS probable schedule and a few available options.

    Heaney : @CHW, CHW, TOR, @CLE, @OAK, LAD, @SEA, @MIN, vSEA
    Nola : @ARI, TOR, NYM, SD, @BOS, ATL, WAS, @ATL, @WAS

    Nelson : PHI, @WAS, CIN, PIT, @MIA, @PIT, CIN, @STL
    J. Ross : @LAD, @SF, MIL, MIA, @STL, NYM, @MIA, MIA, BAL
    Shoemaker: @KC, CHW, @DET, @OAK, TEX, HOU, @MIN, @HOU

    I’m thinking I definitely need to drop one of Heaney or Nola for Ross. I can afford to sit Nola versus TOR next week and probably @BOS too.

    2) How would you rank these guys ROS when they come back: Smyly, Pinieda, Matz, Berrios

    Thanks man!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @bossmanjunior333: Defffffffinitely getting Ross. I think it’s Heaney going out for Ross. I would swap Nola with Nelson too, some pretty good matchups in there. Win potential is low, but he looks great.

      2 – If all were healthy now, I would go Matz, Pineda, Smyly Berrios, but obviously lots of factors in there. I don’t think the Mets push Matz even in the hunt. Smyly looked bad rehabbing with a torn labrum I think (ugh). I think of all of them, Pineda is my main hold and only one in the ranks.

      Any time!

  12. DiRo says:
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    In a standard h2h ESPN league with keepers. How do you feel about me trading Tulo, Betts and King Felix for Xander Boegarts, David Price(or Strasberg is an option) and Matz or Severino?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @DiRo: Whewwwwwwww blockbuster trade! Man, it seems like giving up a ton for right now for upside. I think you’re giving up a bit too much, Tulo and Felix should have several more years in front of them, and I like Betts. I’d probably need a tad more back

  13. Ante GALIC says:
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    JB!!

    Great job, man! Good luck and best wishes for your upcoming activities outside of razzball!! Hope the weather in Grenada is ideal for y’all.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Ante GALIC: Thanks so much man! Yeah we found out a little ago that it’s their “rainy season” but should only be a little rain here and there. Spotty we hope haha. Thanks agian!

  14. Scott says:
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    Whoah. That ranking tells me Joe Ross is matchup proof?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Scott: Yup! Even an @TOR I would go with him, bc he’d neutralize the righty bats. I’m all in

  15. Tedd says:
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    Howdy man, in a redraft (h2h points league /weekly lock) is Jose Fernandez droppable? If he does get put on the DL that would bring us to the start of sept when he could return if he’s not shut down

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Tedd: Yo! Whewwww it’s close. I’m lenaing not quite yet – want to see what happens for sure – but it’s close. Fairly certain he is going on the DL, so def holding if you have a DL spot to wait that move out

  16. Hern says:
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    Drop Jo-Fer for Ross? Sad face…

    • Hern says:
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      @Hern: Joe Ross, that is…

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Hern: Yup for sure. If your DL is full it’s right away, if not I might try and drop someone else for Ross first, then DL JoFer. But Ross is an ASAP add for me

  17. dem ribbies says:
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    Sup JB. Great writeup as always..

    is Jungmann for real? I’m in a QS league and like what I see…

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @dem ribbies: Thanks so much man! Yeah I’m going around, curveball looks great, heater is working, I do worry he gets regresison in the obscenely low HR/FB rate at 3.5% in hitter haven Miller Park. So not as good as he has been, but not far off

  18. ballin says:
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    What are you thoughts on Schwarber Cubs C long term? I was offered Cargo and Brandon Crawford along with a 10th round pick for him in a keeper league. I am in second looking to rise to the top

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @ballin: Whoa that’s a huge haul! I think the risk he might be OF full time and lose C down the road is enough to take that deal to help now.

  19. B-rock says:
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    Curious your thoughts on Martin Perez?

    He’s had a few quality starts since his return and one real clunker.. Which side do you think he’s more likely to continue on?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @B-rock: Hah, he was literally 101 for me. Low K rates scare me in roto terms. I think he can be OK, but these last two seem way to fluky good for me

  20. PED Inc. says:
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    JB gonna miss you these next couple weeks when I need you the most! Thanks for the great write up as always bud.

    In one of my H2H points leagues someone offered me an interesting trade and I thought I was going to take it immediately till I read your latest here.

    In this league I am in first place and have already secured a spot in the playoffs so all moves now are for the ROS.

    I would receive scherzer and grichuk

    In return for my Wacha, Joe Ross, and Adam Jones

    My pitching staff looks like this right now
    Kershaw
    Greinke
    Wacha
    JoFer
    Salazar
    Severino
    Joe Ross
    Tyson Ross
    Alex Wood

    The thought of a kershaw, Greinke, Scherzer as my core makes me feel like I almost have to do it.
    Wacha and his innings concern me if the Cards continue to win and mantain a huge divisional lead in September.
    Jones for Grichuk is a toss up for me as Jones has been so hot and cold. Grichuk is showing more and more power with a lot of games in hitter friendly parks remaining on the schedule.

    Whatcha think man? This could very possibly make or break me in the playoffs.

    • PED Inc. says:
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      @PED Inc.: based on your rankings I will have all 9 of my pitchers in your top 52 in a ten team league as I forgot to add Shoemaker to the list above.

      Also I forgot to ask Latos just hit the wire, if I make this trade it will give me an open roster spot, he’s very high on your list, you really think he’s going to be better down the stretch?

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @PED Inc.: Hah, well I will still be able to hit the comments here and there! Just no new post, so feel free to drop by here while I’m out!

        Oh man, that’s a toughie. Well it helps it’s Pts and Jones isn’t quite the beast as in Roto. I think there’s enough risk with Ross and Wacha’s shoulder I indeed to it. One last question – is it weekly lineup lock? That makes a pure ace like Scherzer that much better.

        Yeah if this trade works I def like Latos, the low Ks are a little alarming but he’s been good more or less the past few months

        • PED Inc. says:
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          @JB Gilpin: that’s correct, weekly lineup lock, I’ve had a bad feeling about Wacha now for a little while as a Cards fan watching him and the innings really piling up. I really think once September call ups are made they are going to use the pen heavily with all the good young arms in the system to either skip some of Wacha and Martinez’s starts or keep them down with five inning starts to conserve them for the playoffs.

          Gonna pull the trigger on it, thanks for the reassurance JB, enjoy your vacation!

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @PED Inc.: Yup totally agree on your Cards, especially C-Mart. But yeah – I like that deal even more knowing it’s weekly lock, and also would probably get a different option than Latos – with that staff, there’s virtually no way you’re playing him even in a 2-start week. Thanks man, let’s hope I don’t get too sunburnt!

  21. Timmah R says:
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    Would you rather have Tanaka or Joe Ross for ROS in a H2H points league? Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Timmah R: Hmmmm, mad close. Yanks have shown they’ll keep Tanaka from going much past 100 pitches, limiting how deep he goes. Ross in the best division to pitch in… Such a toss up, but I imagine that means I feel Ross is undervalues and Tanaka a little over. Gun to my head, I’ll stick with Tanaka

      • Timmah R says:
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        @JB Gilpin: yea, I’m with you on that for now… his arm might fall off soon but we’ll see ;-)

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Timmah R: Hahaha very true, it’s a legitimate risk. If it did happen when delivering a pitch, is it a balk????

  22. Jerry says:
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    Hey, JB! Quintana, Nelson or Walker ros? Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jerry: Yo! Tough one between Nelson and Walker, as I have them back to back in my ranks, very very barely leaning Nelson

  23. SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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    JBIZZLE congrats on the wedding and the honey moon man!!

    onto the important stuff – should I drop mujica for tazawa or machi?!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @SheriffMcRawDawg: Thanks so much man, I’m pumped! Can’t wait.

      Yup def getting Tazawa!

  24. Assy says:
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    JB! Great read as always, man. Also can’t say how happy I am that the Nats are letting Joe Ross go at it and giving him a chance.

    DL question, I’m rostering Matz and Pineda but Howie just hit the DL… who would you potentially drop to keep HK?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Assy: Thanks for stopping by! Dude I’m pumped too, Ross looks incredible.

      Hmmm good one… I’d have to lean dropping Matz since I think they baby him a little more, but it’s very very close.

  25. Charles says:
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    Heard you mention prog metal on the podcast a week or so back. Which bands do you recommend?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Charles: Oh sweet, always love talking music! Right now I’m non-stop listening to Native Construct’s debut “A Quiet World”.

      Other favorites of the past few years – Caligula’s Horse “The Tide, The Thief, & River’s End”, Tesseract “Altered State” and either of the past 2 from The Contortionist, I like “Intrinsic” the best.

      Listening to anything now you like? Metal and fantasy baseball usually don’t have a big overlap of fans! Hah

  26. hmm says:
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    with Mookie betts coming back i gotta drop one of Rendon, D. LeMahieu, Bogaerts, or Herrera.

    which one would you let go of?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @hmm: Ummm I think it’s DJ for the cut for me.

  27. NickfromtheRoc says:
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    Hey JB – Thanks as always for the list. A couple quick questions:

    1 – Thoughts on Severino today (Tuesday) vs. the Indians? SON doesn’t love either of his next two starts, but you seem pretty high on him. Would you be starting him regardless?

    2 – Feelings on Chase Anderson ROS? He looked pretty good in his first start back – do you picture him raising in the rankings (if you were doing them the next two weeks)? He is the lowest ranked of all of my starters, and there a few guys ahead of him on the wire. I’ve held/streamed Rubby through most of the season, but want to start securing my staff for the playoffs….

    Also, good luck with the last week before the wedding! My wife and I got married 3 years ago this weekend and honeymooned in the Caribbean as well. We ended up sitting through a few tropical storms, but it was well worth it….

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @NickfromtheRoc: Thanks for reading man!

      1 – I like him. I would play him today, I think a factor for SON is probably how deep he goes, I wouldn’t bank on a quality start, but I def see more K than IP and a good outing.

      2 – Yeah he fell out with the injury, but I could see him rising a tad – low K rate a big weight keeping him down. Although Rubby isn’t helping there much either… Since youre is H2H, I think ANderson is a tad more valuable, I’m weighing these guys for roto and low Ks sinking your total really hurt.

      Thanks so much man! Congrats! Yeah we’re hoping to not get too much weather, but on rainy days we’ll just eat and drink the all-inclusive food all day hah

  28. Swfcdan says:
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    Thanks for the response about platooning lefties in your lineup (posted in the wrong thread, oops!). Yeah its always difficult but I was shocked how bad Blackmon/Tex/Crush numbers are against lefties. Good point on Blacky at Coors, but I think ill take my chances benching them against other lefties as long as the replacements arent facing aces themselves. Will let you know if this new groundbreaking strategy (not) works!

    Congrats on the wedding man, guess you did have a genuine excuse to be away from Razz last week after all haha. Hope you’ll be able to find a chance to post on your honeymoon!

    • Swfcdan says:
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      @Swfcdan: Oh and forgot my actual question duh. I’m rolling with beef Wellington in both leagues right now due to shizz (Ramos) in my 10 and slumpiness (Martin) in my 16er. Doodes been well done beef lately, do you think he can remain solid for ROS now? Could use the roster spots in my other leagues, so thinking about cutting both those guys now. Just not sure if Castillo will play every day.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Swfcdan: Hah all good man! Yeah I have a few decent bench guys and might be benching Calhoun today vs. Rodon. But that’s more to do with a fairly good bench. Yeah I like Castillo! Especially for at least tonight, at home vs. a terrible Buchanan. The power will likely slow a tad as will his current avg, but I think he can be OK and “should” play most days.

        Thanks for the congrats! Hah I won’t be posting, but can answer comments!

        • Swfcdan says:
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          @JB Gilpin: Yeah I think I’ll cut Ramos, he’s just been plain garbage. Martin is a tough one as he’s slumping, guess he’s still a better ROS option than beef at this point.

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Swfcdan: Mmmm, don’t discount beef, with some nice asian glaze off the hibachi?!??!1 haha

  29. Chris says:
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    Hey – curious why Buehrle isn’t on the list?

    IP, W, QS, ERA, WHIP are all there. Obviously not a K guy, but he’s been reliable for months now. Curious on your thoughts.

    Thanks in advance!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Chris: I had him in a few weeks ago for a stretch, but then didn’t look great v. SEA and been just OK the two after that. Started to give up HR again and he was awful post ASB last year: 4.64 ERA 1.49 WHIP. Worried he wears down again. Plus with these for roto, the low K guys can really hurt that cat. But in H2H or Pts, he’d be all the way to maybe 70ish

      • Chris says:
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        @JB Gilpin: ok, good deal. Thanks for the input!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Chris: Any time!

  30. luvdarooks says:
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    starting tonight do i go with Phelps one start Stl or Heston two starts Hou Stl. I dont ned ks in this 5×5 and might be able to move up in ERA whip is locked into 3rd place and am in first in wins by 11
    Play it “safe “by inserting AJ Ramos for one of these and keeping both on the bench or try to get the era under 3.00 (hahaha) with a lucky week from one of these starters—-a win wont hurt either but a blow-up would I’m also up by 11 in saves as i have kanale papelbaum giles and ramos

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @luvdarooks: I would roll Heston there. I like him better 1-for-1 and I could see him having a good shot at a good ERA/WHIP in both of those. I think I’d play Heston over Ramos too, who has def been shaky lately

  31. dem ribbies says:
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    Yo JB. Of the top 100 arms, which of them do you think are on innings limits?

    I’d think at least Thor, Joe Ross, Severino, but not sure how the latter 2 were utilized in AAA.

    Trade deadlines are coming up and want to unload the limited arms, and replace w/ vets who will be avail throughout the playofss.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @dem ribbies: It’s tough to know this year, on ESPN today the tim kurkjan dude said he could see Syndergaard going the whole way. And I don’t think Ross got in the rotation just to get his inning limited in a month. Severino – yeah I see some kid gloves there.

  32. nightpandas says:
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    traded Jungmann for Lackey just before gametime…looks like good timing…

    Got offered Nola for Matz in my 15 team keep 11 roto. Matz was a maybe…what do you think? I am in 15 pts back of 1st. It is a QS league that counts W and L as well.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @nightpandas: Nice! Glad my ranks have it that way!

      Hmmmm keep 11… Matz would be close, don’t think Nola is, def helps now… Is there any consolation to winning 2nd or 3rd? If so I might do it, if not I’m holding.

  33. nightpandas says:
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    I am so back and forth on this deal…..Grey likes

    I give Miggy and Tulo and get back Frazier, Brantley and Kang

    same league as my question just above, struggling with OBP , runs and SLG

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @nightpandas: Hmmm, well same caveat as answer above – I dunno if 15 Pts can be caught this late in most circumstances. With Frazier a little colder it’s tough… I’m leaning no, that’s such a core for later years

  34. chadaristic says:
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    What are your thoughts on Samardzija now? He was dropped in my forever keeper dynasty league. Would you rather have him ROS and moving forward than any of the following?

    Kyle Hendricks
    Aaron Nola
    Matt Shoemaker
    Alex Wood

    Definitely don’t think I should drop Nola or Wood for him in a forever keeper, kind of unsure about Hendricks, Shoemaker feels like a possibility though.

    Keep in mind I only have 12 moves left on the season, so I don’t have any to waste unless it is an obvious upgrade in your opinion.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @chadaristic: Yeah I think he’s worth adding and benching, especially since he’s not THAT old and could be a decent keeper. Shoemaker kinda blew up yesterday after a nice run… Hendricks has no upside. Def dropping one. Leaning Hendricks – starting to walk more guys than he should. I think it’s worth the upside to finish strong and give you a solid keeper next few years

  35. Nightpandas says:
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    Hey JB,

    Two offers I am sitting on: (same caveats as above but there is money for second and third)

    Trade Matz for Nola and Dan down by the river Norris

    Trade Hamels for Gio and McHugh

    Currently in 2nd and we keep 11

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Nightpandas: Hah by the river indeed… Hmmmm def don’t like the Hamels one. I don’t think it’s enough value for ROS and Gio and McHugh are prob not keepers. The Matz one is interesting, but Norris could hurt more than help. I think I’m leaning no on both of those

  36. I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
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    i think paxton is likely out for the year, right? after barely wanting to move F-Her out of top 3 he sure moved down to 10 pretty fast after you got ok with it,eh (i agree completely with that). Other than his last start yesterday Joe the boss Ross is starting to look like a pretty decent keeper pitcher for next year (maybe over mccullers or no)?

    • I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
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      @I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail: and i’m not gloating because he’s hurt, but i thought it was crazy town that you ranked a guy just out of TJ in the top 15 in jofer. Can you (i’m assuming you can) remember anybody that returned from TJ in july and had a top 15 SP ROS? I can’t.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail: Hahahaha awesome commenter name! Yeah Pax was rehabbing over the weekend with positive results, then on Monday right before publishing McClendon said he probably won’t pitch again. Yikes.

        Def Ross over McCulllers! Not worried about that start, Clint Robinson botched a play.

        In my defense, 1 – what other TJ pitchers lately have come off TJ (to return to the majors) then been hurt again right away? All the other guys have been healthy since returning. I’m sure there’s some outliers, but usually guys don’t get hurt a month in since they’ve been meticulously rehabbing. 2 – He was easily top-10 while he was out there. Just needed another month.

        Not like I would commonly throw any ol’ off-TJ pitcher into the top 15. I had seen him higher in some ROS ranks too

        • I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
          (link)

          @JB Gilpin: higher would’ve been crazy, i didn’t know he was top 10 over the period he played though. When i said i can’t remember the last time somebody came back from TJ in july and finished season both healthy and top 15 over entire period of course some of the reason it’s rare to do that is either innings being limited/getting hurt again/being good or great but then just not (harvey this year over periods qualifies for this one); basically there’s lots of reasons.
          So i’m guessing you know the reference then….. it’s the one where Lahey tries to get Cirus out of jail to start a fight with Ricky/Julian over their hash driveway, which had been stolen from Cyrus at start of that season.

  37. Jj says:
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    Hey JB,

    Some manager just dropped Ross. I have the number 1 waiver priority. Been holding all year waiting for a dumb move
    To pounce on.
    1.Would you use the number 1 priority on Ross?
    2. hold it for H.Olivera?
    3. Wait for a dumb move by a panicking. Manager

    I would most likely just drop J.Machi
    Thanks!

    • Jj says:
      (link)

      @Jj:
      Oh and congrats on the nuptials

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @Jj: That word was so hard to spell when I made the programs, “nuptial”! Haha. Thanks man!

        Ross = Joe right? Yeah I’m def doing that. 2 – unless a dire, dire need at 3B (I guess that’s where he’d be eligible, can’t imagine he’d rank high at 1B) I would prob get Ross now. 3 – Nah, I think Ross will prob be one of the best drops avail ROS.

        Any time!

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