Choosing the right closer is hard enough when there is only one to choose on draft day. Tons of factors to guide your hand… Jump forward 50-plus games and when the situation has multiple faces and not a ton of situations from which to choose: is it worth the squeeze? The White Sox closer situation has gone from one, to a few, and back again multiple times this year, and now it has swung back to Joakim Soria after garnering the last two saves. The conundrum here is that Nate Jones had gotten the previous three save chances. Than if you scroll the calendar even farther, Jace Fry got a save and retread Bruce Rondon also factored in on one occasion in mid-May. So with a team that only has 13 saves all year, better than only one other team, the Marlins (who are a complete and utter disaster for saves). So when chasing saves, and we all do it, even you, the guy who can’t make eye contact way in the back… It is part of the FAAB chase and the most alluring I might add and frequent drain of funds. So with a team that has flip-flopped three times in 50 games, with 13 saves and on pace for a MLB bottom-three in save chances, is it worth the headache of this guy or that guy? I wanna root for the Mexecutioner, and some guy named Nate, but they are basically like part-time lovers, and I would rather stream the spot with great counting stats that matter. Soria’s K/9 is in the mid-10’s which is admirable, but on a game-to-game basis, the save chase comes down to volume, not the here and now. Yes, Soria should be owned, and yes Jones should be owned. But I am just bringing this up for your sake of saves hope. If you can pair either one of them at the right time, obviously when they are on a hot streak of two saves in 10 days, do so and upgrade your save booty. Advice over, bits of tid to follow. Cheers!
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Tony Cingrani
Bullpen Report: I Dub Thee Seranthony of Dominguez
May 26, 2018 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 15 Commentsby: Smokey
Tap on the shoulder, now tap on the other shoulder. Swords and knights yadda, yadda. Pun joke and title inclusion over. I could probably draw it out to upmost degree, but I’ll just end it and rip the bandaid off and jump into the welcome back Kotter bullpen of Philadelphia. If the collective bullpen in Philly isn’t called the Sweathogs, they are doing something wrong. The Vinnie Babarino that is emerging as the future leader is most definitely Seranthony Dominguez. Dude set a record with hitless streaks to start the year for a rookie and is now the go to, end all be all holds guy for the Phillies. His arsenal screams future closer, but Kapler’s fear of commitment and Neris owning pictures of some relative of his. Dominguez is the guy, for now and for later. With 5 holds and 1 save in his last 6 appearances, he is involved in almost every winning game the Phillies are. He checks all the proverbial boxes that we have previously discussed when looking for a reliever to roster. Plus he has the save appeal, which is similar to curb appeal, minus the fact that you don’t need shrubs or a Chinese maple tree to accent how dominant he has been. Holds for now, saves for later for the Sir of the Cheesesteak. Roster with confidence as his results are great, but be patient as Kapler is a mad scientist with his bullpen decision making skills. Holds week brings the best out of all of us, because you play in a league with holds. That’s why we are fake internet friends.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Bullpen Report, Week 4: Bear Riders And Stecken Cloughs
April 27, 2018 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 16 Commentsby: Smokey
The Miami Jeters are currently cruising on a sub-60 win pace. Nice if you look at the investment value in terms of dollars and the amount of talent on the field. Now the once or semi-reliable closer, Brad Ziegler, has puked up another save chance and seen his ERA climb a blood alcohol level of 8.44. That is a Cherynoblian level that usually results in a quick change, minus Bill Murray dressed as a clown. In the wings are two decent enough options that in most leagues should be owned for their K prowess. They being Drew Steckenrider and Kyle Barraclough. A change is coming, as the soft-tossing Ziegler can’t rely on sorcery and garbage to will him through save chances, no matter how few and far between they are. The Marlins, from a standpoint of we are only winning X amount of games, and can’t afford to lose Y because of a closer who can’t shut the door is just bad for business. I am grabbing Steckenrider before Barraclough just based on games and position of appearances of date. It is really tough to say though because they have 7 wins, and neither guy has featured more than 4 appearances when the team has been leading. But Steck has seen more 8th innings, and I like him better because he has a closer makeup. So add accordingly if save speculating is your bag, but with success in closing comes success in the setup game. And don’t ignore Barraclough either, because he will be in elevated positions as well and since this is the Holds portion of the week, go get him if free.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Bullpen Report: Hold On For One More Day
February 8, 2017 | Closers, Middle Relievers, SAGNOF | 43 Commentsby: Smokey
Some day somebody’s gonna make you want to turn around and say goodbye. Until then baby, are you going to let them hold you down and make you cry? Don’t you know? Don’t you know things can change, things’ll go your way, if you hold on for one more day.
That music of genius was brought on by a smooth impromptu karaoke session in a West Boston saloon. It was me and Ralph and a girl who was paid by the dollar to talk to us about her kid. It’s all a true story. Fun times were had, and at the time I didn’t realize how correlative the song was back then to this particular stat category and one that is by far my favorite to talk about. Funny, it only took a Wilson Phillips song on the drive home from work to reminisce about Boston, Ralph, and relief pitching. I love the stat, not everyone uses it, but I still love it nonetheless. If your leagues uses it, cool, well I will be your every other week destination for giving you the low-down on the hold situations going across the MLB. So get comfy, with a week to go until Spring Training starts, and the full extent of the 2017 season yet to play. You will get sick of me, in say… 30 weeks. So get comfy on your favorite porcelain fantasy reading chair and welcome to a brand new year!
Please, blog, may I have some more? Closer Report, Preseason: A Committee Of Known Unknowns
January 27, 2017 | Closers, Middle Relievers, SAGNOF | 56 Commentsby: Smokey
That is probably the worst word when it comes to drafting or even trusting in a reliever in a bullpen for fantasy. The guy could be a tax evader, steal lollipops from kids, or never wash his hands after using the lavatory. It still wouldn’t matter, the stigma of being placed into a committee is just awful come draft day. This happens every year when bullpens usually light on talent get paired down to barely usable pieces, or when players return from injury and are an unsure thing. Then again, you get a weird situation like that in Cleveland… It’s very familiar to last year’s draft day conundrum with that of the Yankees. Both Cody Allen and Andrew Miller are draftable and draft worthy within the first 150 picks or so. That number increases for players in “Net Saves” and Holds leagues, because they will steal from each other but on the positive end, one will get a hold and the other the save, and vice versa. The only problem is that Cleveland, after being in the World Series, is a hot button team and both players have some helium to their names, Miller especially. So drafting both is a good idea, stats-wise, but bad for team building it’s structure in other areas. So my best advice is to look elsewhere, yes the stealing thing I mentioned helps you in leagues that contain Holds, but in leagues that don’t, it could be a sticky situation of frustration over saves. Last year down the stretch, Miller wasn’t the closer very frequently. Allen steered that ship. This year, I think the secondary stats: K’s, ERA, WHIP, will all be there, but the counting stats will be split. And since I talk about saves and holds, I am most definitely referencing the saves here. So with their respective rankings spread between 100-130 for both guys, I think the best offense, or with a committee situation, is to grab someone ranked in same neighborhood guys like Ken Giles and Kelvin Herrera. You may thank me later, but I do occasionally deserve the bird. So instead of just going into the rankings this far into preseason, here is a cool little chart for you to reference. I will update this chart all preseason and will add some sleeper posts for both closers and holds. So enjoy my friends!
Please, blog, may I have some more? Closer Report, Week 22: Wade Back To Where You Came From
September 3, 2016 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 20 Commentsby: Smokey
So the inevitable return of Wade Davis came, and just like we expected in typical awful luck scenario, he came into the game for the save. Which any Kelvin owner was dreading, clutching their fists, and shaking it widely. “Curses” they screamed. I have to admit, I didn’t think that the first day off the disabled list he’s be thrown right into the fray. He experienced two set-backs and wasn’t really his normal dominant self in the minor rehab appearances that I noticed. I get that a guy who has the previous experience and job should get the job, but the Royals were cruising along with Herrera in the big boy chair. In fact, he was darn near flawless minus one hiccup, garnering 7 straight saves and 9 appearances in 15 with a clean no-hit inning. I mean, I am no manager, hell I am an admitted couch potato… But I do know closers and that my friends is getting it done. The Royals are still in the thick of the playoff hunt and I think the worst thing to do for them is to change the end game. Davis is going to be dominant in the closer role or set-up role, and he has the goods to be great at either. Now, it may take one more ineffective appearance from him to show it, but I think Herrera is still very much in the foray for save chances in KC.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Closer Report, Week 20: Dyson’s Tender With Saves
August 20, 2016 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 16 Commentsby: Smokey
I wish that he wasn’t… and I wish I could parse my words a little better for a good pun’s sake, but the fact is in the stats. Sam Dyson is allowing more baserunners, more baserunners to get on via the walk, and a higher slugging percentage in the second half of the year. Add in the fact that batting average against and K-rate are down since 30 days ago, its never a good sign for someone to be all cozy and buy long-term property in the town of closerville. Listen, he already wasn’t elite in the K-rate department, but to be hovering in the mid 5’s for the past 20 appearances is just bad. From what I am noticing, his velocity has leveled out, but he isn’t using his arsenal as much or as frequent, relying mostly on his sinker and moving away from his ancillary fastball and slider. Not all awful things in the immediate world in the result-driven world of fantasy, but troubling nonetheless. When a reliever doesn’t trust or use his stuff in a way that was once successful, it shows a lack of confidence in it. The guests knocking at the door have been a phenomenal swoon for almost all fantasy leagues with the likes of Diekman, Barnette (who has been sneaky great), Bush and Kela. The saves that have been divided up show that Bush and Diekman look like the guys to watch most for in a change. So with about a month of useful fantasy to go, now is not the time for a 20-save guy to spin his wheels… grab the cuff in advance and cover yourself like it was your Linus blanket or a just in case of emergency fantasy glass thingy.
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Anderson Joins The Tyler High Club
August 9, 2016 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 411 Commentsby: Grey
I don’t usually mention pitchers in Coors. Even rarer still that I mention pitchers filled with Coors. Most pitchers with Coors are piss-poor. That’s for every definition of Coors and pitchers. Now, let’s look at the definition of belch. To eject gas spasmodically, to eruct. If erect is good, Coors definitely makes me eruct. A pitcher that throws gas in Coors usually has spastic eructions. Talk about slightly off sexy talk. A phone sex operator should mess with a customer and say, “I want your spastic eruction all over me.” “Did you just say you want me to belch on you?” Yesterday, Tyler Anderson went 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks, moving his ERA to 3.04. His peripherals agree, he’s not getting by on smoke and mirrors like some children’s magician. He has a 7.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 3.41 xFIP. Not an ace, but a safe number two, similar numbers to, say, Kyle Hendricks. We need to put aside our aversion to Rockies pitchers and throw our hat in the ring for Merry Tyler Coors. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more? Closer Report, Week 18: Miller Ain’t Buffaloing Cody
August 7, 2016 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 23 Commentsby: Smokey
The price that was paid, and the results that led him up to the trade had everyone believing that Andrew Miller would trump the incumbent Cody Allen in Cleveland. Through two-pitched games, he has seen one save opportunity in the 6-7th inning, and the other was in a losing effort. Now, I am not reading the tea leaves here, but after just two appearances and five games overall, I think Cody is not a droppable player in any format, saves holds or NSVH. I mentioned it out loud to myself after the trade was completed, and also to Prospector Ralph. With 55 games to play and save chances in 52 percent of games won… so that would leave 14 or so chances for the Indians and Miller to retain value. And don’t get it twisted, he still has a ton of value with a ridiculous K-rate over 16, and the Indians are still a first place squad. Just everyone that seems to matter has struggled with the Twins. It’s crazy that they are 20-plus games under .500. So for the Allen owners, hold firm, like Gi-Joe style grip type stuff. Miller owners, you have most likely owned him all year, so your peripherals aren’t going to be flawed because of him. As far as saves go, I think it could go 70/30 the rest of the way and be a situational thing on occasion. Let’s look at the plethora of changes that are basically pillaging the relief ranks around baseball…
Please, blog, may I have some more? Closer Report, Week 17: The Calm Before The Deadline
July 30, 2016 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 22 Commentsby: Smokey
I was going to just delay this post due to inclement weather, but Grey’s super Doppler 5001, which is also a giant B.S. detector, wouldn’t let me. So here we sit, some 48 hours before the list that you are about to see means about as much as single-ply toilet paper… Really, what cheap s.o.b. concocted this idea of pinching pennies? I mean everyone has had a run-in with it at some point. Awful. It’s part of the reason I have a salt-water bidet in all three outhouses at the Smokey compound. So back to the deadline… closer gossip teams are lining up other contenders closers in such a bullish market, namely the rumors surrounding Mark Melancon. The market and teams that need reliable relievers, let alone closers, is the Nationals, Indians, Rangers and Giants. It is just the land of confusion and there is not enough LOOGY’S to go around. I will touch on who I can see where after the bump to prolong the suspense, but the teams I just mentioned are teams to monitor on the opposite end of closers, because if the big names start rolling, all but Cody Allen looks to be out of a job. Here’s what I can see going down by the deadline in the bullpen game, plus some rankings and next in line stuff. Plus, Razzball Soccer has started pumping out quality, so go over and check it and join the official game…
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James Paxton, The Peasant Lord
July 16, 2016 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 47 Commentsby: LT Murray IV
Greetings! Ughh, ’tis been a rough couple days for your Lord… getting my butthole re-bleached is one thing, but my current day job forced me to fire someone for the first time in my life. Yes, I was forced to get my Donald Trump on and layoff this bih, who was once my boss. Aaaaaaaaaawkwaaaaaard to say the least. Of course, I made love to her first after doing our usual morning lines in the bathroom, as I wanted to give her one last perfect morning. Telling her to pack her shizz up and letting her know that I would be taking her job five minutes after blowing her back out was an absolute out-of-body experience. I felt the Elders gazing down upon me, guiding my firm hand as I demanded her keys, banned her from the premises, and broke her the worst news she has probably ever received in her life. Lord Beddict will no longer be giving you the pipe and you’re now going to have to buy your own cocaine. Nice gal, she’ll get over it… no she won’t. So yeah, about James Paxton… If someone could tell me how a man who throws 100 MPH can somehow only total 3 Ks over his past 13 innings, I’ll service you while you suck you on a blowpop. How many licks does it take to get to the center of Paxton’s psyche? 5 innings, 6 earned, 1 k, 9 hits, but hey, at least he limited the Astros to one walk…
Anyways, here’s what I witnessed yesterday in fantasy baseball. Take heed!!!
Please, blog, may I have some more?I am always a day late and a buck short on the posts because I am relegated to be the Saturday morning cartoon of the Razzball variety. No worries, I mean, who doesn’t love 80’s cartoons and can’t list 10 shows that would drastically alter children’s universes today? One word… Snorks. So with everyone else doing the second-half rankings, I felt it was my duty to give the closer rankings based solely on the second games remaining. The elite will still be the elite, the mediocre are still mediocre, and the middling teams will still be middling. I don’t care what algorithm Jimmy Bill came up with to have expected win totals and blah blah. Expected win totals are an indicator of save expectations. because the percent of saves converted in wins by teams has been pretty stagnant at 52%, give or take a few sheckles each way. So looking at the games remaining, some teams have less games to play then others, and some have more so the expected totals for some teams will be different then what you would expect them to be. So as a wise person once said to me in throws of fantasy passion, lets have at it. Cheers!
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